YouGov poll leak: it’s very close
February 7th, 2006
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“Ming just 6% ahead”
Information has been leaked to me this afternoon about the YouGov Lib Dem members poll which has been the subject of much speculation.
My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name.
I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences would split in Huhne’s favour they do not split enough for him to win.
There is no way that I can verify the accuracy of this information but the numbers are in line with that which Guido has reported.
It will be recalled that in the only published leadership poll, which was in the Daily Telegraph on the morning of the day that Kennedy resigned, the split was: Sir Menzies Campbell 49%: Simon Hughes 21%: Mark Oaten 14%.
Clearly that was taken before the emregence of Chris Huhne and the Oaten pull-out - but today’s figures for Campbell and Hughes are very much in line with the earlier survey.
Clearly, with the ballots just arriving at the homes of members, this week is very important and the information seems to indicate why there has been a move to Huhne this afternoon on the betting markets.
The big question for punters is whether there is enough momentum behind the Huhne campaign to push him over or whether the Campbell campaign can hold on. This is a very hard call.
The importance of the the YouGov survey is has been underpinned by their success with similar polls ahead of the Tory leadership ballot which got the final result to within one per cent.
Mike Smithson
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This’ll be very interesting to watch. Perhaps the team with the best media management will win the day…
Some of this polling will have been done a few days ago; some members (my father for example) knew nothing about Huhne. The manifesto enclosed with the ballot papers (received today) must have won over some people. Huhne clearly has momentum. I would not be surprised if he emerged as favourite on Friday, if he has a good performance on QT on Thursday. That, however, does not mean he will win. Remember, Hughes was odds-on to win at one stage!
If the numbers are true, I think the poll is good for Huhne and bad for Hughes. So and so for Ming: he’s still leading, but he would have Huhne’s breath on his neck (does this expression exist in English?). So an interesting last lap….but Ming was a sprinter…..
I’m sorry those figures just don’t feel right. Huhne has run a good campaign - but surely not good enough to beat Hughes among the armchair members? Maybe his ‘revelations’ have harmed him among this group of members.
Huhne is clearly doing well among activists - as did Ballard, Beith and Pardoe, but it is not enough.
Have YouGov got suffcient numbers of Lib Dem members for a representative sample? There is a big minority of Lib Dem members who are not at all ideological and join because of very local activity - they will have heard of Hughes and Campbell, but I doubt whether many of them will have heard of Huhne. They are also very unlikely to sign up for a political website.
This could be the first big test of YouGov’s methodology.
The sample is around 300 LibDem members which will be good enough to give a good indication of the standings of the candidates. Clearly Campbell has lost all momentum and Huhne has it. If the odds are still good enough I think its time to put some money on Mr Huhne.
At a guess (from publicly declared Campbell backers and sympathisers) only one or two names come to mind. (Jacobs, Marshall, Greenland…)
This momentum is clearly with Chris Huhne at the moment - though 2 yes the caveat is right. If those figures are accurate it’s going to be a photo-finish as the leak on second preferences would sound accurate. All credit to Chris’ team for judging the campaign exactly right, to the extent where at this stage all we’re seeing is slightly childish attacks from Ming supporters.
Armchair members, as I reported over the weekend, are leaning towards Chris though whether in sufficient numbers is another matter. Reports from hustings will help.
4 - I’m with Dan on this one. I’m sure Huhne’s doing well, better than I thought he would. But I would be amazed if Hughes is doing as badly as this alleged poll suggests.
I assume, from the slant of the questions, that the latest YouGov was commissioned by Huhne’s team.
I have to say I’ve been very surprised by the partiality of the questions in the recent YouGov polls I’ve been sent. The questions commissioned for John Hemming’s survey were very ‘leading’.
Likewise today’s: do you support Ming Campbell or Simon Hughes, two old boring lawers, or fresh-faced polymath Chris Huhne? (I paraphrase, but only slightly.) This is little more than push-polling, and should be treated with a vat of salt.
Re. the donor - surely not the dubious overseas businessman?
7 - Having been one of the questionees, I can assure you there was absolutely no indication as to who whose backer had commissioned it.
A: A lot of Lib Dems are in the South East and will have heard of Huhne from endless regional stuff when he was running for MEP and then as MEP (in a lot of the local papers) and then the re-selection in 2004, when he beat Emma Nicholson. That’s a big chunk of the armchair membership. As soon as you cross the boundary either into London or North or West, his recognition drops dramatically. YouGov need to be extra careful about the geographical balance of their sample.
B: Hughes revelations and the media scrum as a result will have hurt among armchair members more than they hurt amongst activists, IMO. Also, Hughes is not that popular in the armchair outside London anyway.
C: Campbell has copped a fair bit of flak for the knifing of Kennedy. Having Vince Cable and Sarah Teather as supporters doesn’t help.
D: Lib Dem MPs profiles vary hugely by region. Simon Hughes is very well-known and liked in London. Not so much elsewhere, where we don’t see him on TV as much, where we don’t read the Standard, etc. I’ve already mentioned Huhne in the SE (that’s the GOSE area, ie the Lib Dem regions of South East and South Central). Ming will get an even bigger effect in Scotland, but there are nothing like enough members there for that to be a noticeable factor. Ming has much the best national profile of the three candidates. Simon’s image outside London is very much media-shaped as a hardcore lefty. I’ve heard concerns that he’s a Trot, driven by that profile (literally - comparisons to Benn).
E: I think the Hughes votes will split on second preference heavily to Huhne; Huhne could actually be in the lead on those numbers.
7 - Reading the rest of your contribution you CLEARLY have not read it or been one of those surveyed by Yougov. It was absolutely straight down the line impartial. I have to wonder at your motivation for calling this last Survey into question….
One would really think you didn’t like Chris Huhne
9 - I answered it too. Today’s was clearly from Huhne’s team (nothing wrong with that, btw. But the questions were very carefully designed to elicit a response that would undoubtedly favour Chris.)
I also share Dan’s concerns about methodology - Lib Dem members signing up for YouGov are a self-selecting sub-set of Lib Dem members. They may be more likely to be switched on to Huhne. It would also be interesting to know how YouGov adjust for age (do they weight to the average age of members, or the average age of people generally or in some other way). The non-appearance of dark horse Stewart Lewis is also a flaw in the methodology.
However, there is no question but that this poll is good for Huhne, a disaster for Hughes and probably something that confirms what Campbell’s team suspected.
It is worth noting that a lot of ballots are likely to go in very quickly - many immediately and many of the rest after the Question Time special. This will effectively be over one way or another by the weekend (and the rest will be speculation).
I suspect the poll is about right as it goes, but that Lib Dem members signed up to YouGov may not be fully representative of members as a whole.
BUT I still think it indicates that Huhne has a lot of momentum - o% to 34% in two weeks, even amongst internet inclined members - is still very impressive.
10 - A yes but less so now; C yes; B yes with bells on. E - no.
Dan - it may be a London bias showing
Simon of course had 14 years as the sole Lib Dem MP in London which helped his profile enormously.
I’m told that Ming’s stock among Scottish activists (who saw an incredibly good result under Charles just months ago) is not exactly great. Scottish membership is derisory in any case.
11 - I have absolutely no axe to grind, and would be perfectly happy to see Chris as leader. What I am suggesting is that YouGov’s questions are less empirical than I would expect from a polling company. And therefore the answers should be treated with caution.
12 - Well you clearly didn’t read the same web page as me if you think those questions were leading. Same phrases for each candidate until well past the point at which the preferences were asked for each candidate.
Yes there was 3 individual questions regarding the 3 candidates towards the end on what might be their own weakest area, but lets be honest here, who doesn’t think Mings age is an important factor in this.
7. Campbell supporter perchance? For the record, the always impeccably informed Mike Smithson alleges at the top of the thread that a wealthy Campbell backer commissioned the poll.
Dan @ 4, in 1999 Hughes got 31.8% of the first preferences, so this would mean a drop of about 11%. Of course, Lib Dem membership has grown since that, and the Hughes might have less support among the new members than among those who were members in 1999. But do you find it so odd, if Huhne with his green agenda has managed to woo a part of Hughes’ potential supporters regardless to his revelations?
10 - on your point E, I am not sure this squares with the “armchair” element of the membership. Among politicos it may be received wisdom that second prefs will split from Hughes to Huhne, but armchair members will often vote “1. The chap I really like. 2. The chap I quite like. 3. The chap I barely know although he seems decent enough.” I think the winner on first prefs (whoever that is) will win on second prefs.
If Huhne wins how will he hold the Parliamentary party together when so MPs, peers and MEPs oppose him? I don’t see how the plotting would stop.
I should add that the 3 ‘loaded’ questions about the candidates at the end were regarding, Age, Honestly and Experience. I’m sure you’re all old enough to work out which question is applied to which candidate
20. You certainly could be right, especially in relation to the armchair members. Depends if they’re left-right voters or profile/identity voters.
21. Think it could be as bad with the manoevering to succeed Ming or even possibly worse.
Actually, on the state-of-the-leader after polling day question, I think Dunfermline will heavily affect that: a Lib Dem gain changes the political context in a big way.
21 - evidence? I think the opposite is the case. 23 MPs had declared for Ming by the time Chris even thought about standing. That puts Chris ahead among MPs, all things being equal, if you want to twist the logic
The Grauniad came out for Campbell to-day - Huhne can’t even get the endorsement of his old paper, it seems.
17 - perhaps I’m cynical or over-reading… but when the canidates are profiled as
- Ming is 64 and is a lawyer by profession…
- Simon is 54 and is a lawyer by profession…
- Chris is 51 and has been a journalist and businessman
and then the follow-up questions ask who’s the right age, and who is more likely to understand issues facing the public…
Perhaps I’m wrong. But if I had written the poll for Chris’s team those questions are exactly what I’d have asked.
18 - Mike’s source is for last week’s poll. I was talking about today’s YouGov poll of members, which I just filled in.
26 - not checked my email yet hang on… Ah some surveys.. Let me get back to you later when I’ve done them.
18 - given the oddly phrased and in places Euro-obsessed odd question, I’d say a Telegraph tracking poll.
If Chris can go from a 300/1 outsider to a very close second favourite in a matter of weeks, then anyone writing off his chances of turning Eastleigh into a safe LD seat over the next 3/4 years must be either mad or stupid.
The judgement and calible that he and his campaign team have shown over the last few weeks cannot be written off lightly. I’m sure it will be put to good use in Eastleigh over the next few years.
21 - I don’t agree with that at all. In particular, there is no possibility of a comeback for Campbell (as leader - no doubt he will have a key role in other ways) if he were to lose. Clegg, Davey etc would kick themselves in a way but make a calculation as to how best to further their careers and there is no question as to the answer they would reach - serve loyally and effectively, become shadow Chancellor or whatever and wait for 2015 (perhaps 2010 if Eastleigh is vulnerable but there is nothing they could do to precipitate it) or later when we will after all still be young enough to do it. That is not only sensible but suits their temperaments.
I just don’t see how, after what some of Huhne’s colleagues have been saying about him, even publically, they would accept him as Leader. I get the feeling, that for various reasons, he is loathed by many of his colleagues. I asked the question this morning about why so many of his former colleagues in the European Parliament were opposing Huhne, but no real answer has emerged. Surely some insider reads the postings here.
29. Of course, but then it presumably already has been when he took over the seat and it hasn’t left him in a terribly strong position. The issue has been debated to death on here, but he’s gone from rank outsider to close second (apparently) firstly by standing - he wouldn’t have been 300/1 if it looked like he was a candidate at the time, and then not doing anything wrong while the other candidates self-destructed. The ability of CCHQ to mess up a not-so-covert decapitation strategy is always there, but I would expect significant resource to be thrown there if Huhne does win. In any case, no-one will actually *know* until after the next election - so the possibility of losing the leader will be real until proven otherwise.
Dave H (21). Come off it! “If Huhne wins how will he hold the Parliamentary party together when so MPs, peers and MEPs oppose him? I don’t see how the plotting would stop.”
Just a bit more Tory spin, I´m afraid…. When it is an internal party contest, giving support to one candidate does NOT imply opposing the others. Well, it may do in the Tory Party.
I think all three candidates would be good, but my personal preference is for Chris Huhne. I am certainly not opposed to any of them.
31 - I left a fairly cryptic answer along the lines of ‘it depends on your views of th other MEPs’
To be a bit more explicit - many MEPs are not hugely well liked or seen as brilliant campaigners.
To many campaigners in the party the fact that the majority of MEPs don’t support Huhne may well be seen as a good thing.
He was noticeably more active as a campaigner in the south east than the other south east lib dem - Emma Nicholson - or most of his then colleagues. Perhaps there was a difference of opinions about what the MEPs should be prioritising?
What is the limit on election expenses for the leadership candidates? Would a poll count towards it? We need answers to this before we can say for certain whether the poll is Huhne commissioned. (I believe Cameron and Davis each spent about £100000, but I believe the LD rules impose a much lower threshold.)
I am an armchair party member, and have spoken to other armchair members, and get the feeling that Hughes is viewed as a bit of an earnest idiot, and will get few votes. The activists (who tend to be more lefty) may give some support to him, but I can’t see much support in the membership at large.
Finally, Tories on this site appear to have the opinion that there will be splits within the LDs anyway… given that Ashley Giles is definitely out of the tour to India, couldn’t these Tory spinners doing something more useful with their time. I can forsee division with Hughes as leader (and weak disorganised leadership, nice bloke though he is)… but not with Huhne or Campbell.
24. Readingliberal, if I wanted twisted logic I’d vote for Blair
I’ve heard rumours of another pol coming out putting Ming on 40%, Huhne on 37% and Hughes 23%. Not sure of the source - could be ICM?
37 - So are we looking at the Huhne campaign going all out with ‘it’s a 2 horse race’ and ‘only Chris can beat Ming here’ in the next few days…
I have just been phoned by a friend (young, female and Northern). She has received her ballot pack for the Lib Dems today and is in two minds as to whether to support Simon Hughes, who impresses her but seems a bit of a liability or Chris Huhne, who she thinks lacks a certain ’spark’. Being young, she says she thinks Ming Campbell’s ’spark’ has long gone out)
26 - Having just done todays Yougov I can’t say that knowing that Ming and Simon are Lawyers and Chris is not shows bias in that poll either. Having said that, this one appears more ‘political’ than the previous one.
for those who are interested, the new polls closing date is Friday morning at 10am. Hopefully us poor webpage tickers will get to know properly about this one and where to put OUR money
34. Perhaps it was his obsession with scrapping the pound that did it for him.
37 - This is beyond a joke now. After the Kennedy/Oaten debacles I’d hoped that lessons would be learned but the poisonous atmosphere, ramping and ‘leaking’ of conflicting polls/rumours/numbers_I_made_up, is destroying credibility even further/
If the tories could run such a good election what’s gone wrong here (and it has gone badly wrong, no matter who your preference is for)?
I don´t think it has gone wrong, UK. Some Tories are spinning their normal line, with talk about leaks, splits, defections etc, but I think the Lib Dem leadership campaign is doing all right, as is the Lib Dem campaign in Dunfermline…. We shall see…
New YouMorePop poll rumour:
Stewart Lewis 42%
Ginger La Grange 38%
Vanessa Redgrave 20%
“It’s a gay choice between Stewart and Ginger!”
42. Practice. If you keep having leadership elections at a rate of one every two and a half years for 16 years, we were bound to get it right sooner or later.
[45] …with the emphasis (since we’re talking about the Tories) on the “later”
43 - Come off it, I can understand how activists will be hoping that there’s nothing sticking but to the general voter this has become a joke. Alcoholism/Affairs with Rent Boys/News of the World exposes/Backstabbing/Infighting/Lack of direction/Candidates include a man past his best-a boring nobody-a bisexual christian and a camp bloke who likes being crapped on.
If that’s your idea of a positive outcome you’re on a diferent planet. The only winners are on the tory and labour benches.
42 - But who cared by this stage whether Cameron/Davis was 70/30, 65/35, 60/40 or 100/0? The fact was that it was all over. This one is quite unpredicatable and we can all get some interest out of it. If Iain Dale had posted on here in November that private soundings suggested Davis was going to edge it at the last, we would have sent the boys with the white coats around to Politicos with all due haste.
And the idea that the wider public beyond this site is in the least bit interested in rumours of the results of surveys and who is spreading those rumours is a bit absurd.
I agree that these figures just don’t feel correct.
I doubt that internet users are representative of the party as a whole.
I haven’t been invited to participate in either You Gov poll as I have not told them I am a member, and indeed tell them I voted Labour at the last GE.
Re 31, gosh Dave, on the basis of your post one wonders how Blair can hold the Labour party together and Cameron having upset some of the Euro MPs and the right wing with his attacks on the monarchy.
Come on look on the bright side of life.
Yougov were very accurate for the Tory election and they are using the same methodology, so I can see no reason to doubt its accuracy.
Some of the excuses being put forward would have brought derision from LibDem posters if we Tories had indulged in the same.
47 ukpaul. “………you’re on a different planet …”
You are Limpick Opek and I claim Uranus.
48. James, you’re quite right! Now forget all these rumours about LibDem polls. The real poll is taking place on BBC Nottingham, where you can vote for the sexiest MP in Nottinghamshire. Sadly, PoliticalBetting’s favourite Labour MP Nick Palmer is trailing rather badly. But this could all change! He needs your help! Badly! All the details are on my blog http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com
Goodness, do you mean Limpid Optik! Do keep up.
Having said the poll was likely to be accurate why do the results not ‘feel’ right - surely just showing something you don’t agree with?
Ming’s % has gone down from 49% to 40% - why is this a surprise? His campaign is ‘reticent’ according to Nick Clegg today, and has disappointed many failing to turn up to events. Add to that the fact that he really does appear very old and tired, lacking in both energy and ideas. No I’m NOT surprised by the numbers.
Peter 49. David Davis was saying that he doubted that internet users are representaive of the Tory membership as a whole right up to the end.
It is extremely difficult to argue with YouGov’s record with party membership polls. The numbers are almost totally consistent with the mesage I was getting and reported here a week ago.
What has shocked me is how weak the support for Hughes has been and even before he “came out” he was not in this race.
51 - But there was no obvious reason to expect there to be a difference between the views of the Tory membership and the YouGov-registered Tory membership. There are reasons to suspect it for the Lib Dems - principally that armchair members (one suspects) are more likely to be for Ming and less likely to be YouGov registered. This could be an incorrect suspicion but it is a potential problem in the poll which did not manifest itself in the Tory contest quite possibly because there was no similar disjuncture.
53 - If only Kilroy had been elected in Erewash (is that Nottinghamshire?) Is there a Tabman option? It is only a matter of time - just waiting for Ken to do the decent thing and devote himself full-time to flogging Drum Rolling Tobacco to African primary school children thus freeing up the seat for Tabbers.
47.a man past his best
Campbell and in part Hughes
a boring nobody-
boring= Hughes nobody=Huhne
But Huhne is more boring that Hughes a nodody, so the final answer is Huhne
a bisexual christian
Hughes
and a camp bloke who likes being crapped on.
Oaten!
56 - Yet there is evidence that internet surveys come up with more “right-wing” results than other surveys.
I hold you responsible for my exclusion from the poll - I read that by registering as a Labour voter you were asked to participate more often! (I won’t sue).
57 - James, Tabman is clearly the sexiest man in Notts, and this will be the central plank of his platform in 2008 GE
LibDem activists on here really don’t think much of their membership do they!
Almost everyone agrees that Huhne has run the most energetic (and best?) campaign, and is attracting plaudits across the activist party. And yet we are expected to believe that it is “implausible” that he has 34% support among the wider membership?
53, who’s winning? I can’t see the current results!
Just been repolled by YuoGov, with the poll closing on Friday morning. Different questions to last time
Oh, do come off it. There is no reason to think that the LibDem membership is any less internet savvy than the Tory electorate. The very opposite in fact if the LibDem characature of the average Tory were accurate.
So overall there is every reason to believe the trendy and dynamic LibDem will be plugged into the net through the arm rests of her favourite wing chair.
62 Patrick Mercer is winning by quite some way. Ken Clarke is currently beating Nick Pamler with three times as many votes…
65.Anna, old Tory women and middle-aged gay tories are clearly rigging the poll!
56 - Many people who comment negatively on YouGov and internet polls don’t understand how they work. So although there are valid questions to be asked about internet polling (although no more than the huge number of valid questions never satisfactorily answered with traditional methods), they are rarely the ones raised by the amateur critics.
From the BBC Nottingham page… here are the current results of the search for the sexiest MP in Nottinghamshire…
Which Nottinghamshire MP, if any, does it for you? Kenneth Clarke MP 1: Alan Meale MP 2 ( 1%)
2: Alan Simpson MP 24 ( 10%)
3: Geoff Hoon MP 14 ( 6%)
4: Graham Allen MP 0 ( 0%)
5: John Heppell MP 0 ( 0%)
6: John Mann MP 2 ( 1%)
7: Kenneth Clarke MP 23 ( 9%)
8: Nick Palmer MP 8 ( 3%)
9: Paddy Tipping MP 16 ( 6%)
10: Patrick Mercer MP 102 ( 41%)
11: Vernon Coaker MP 10 ( 4%)
12: None of the above 50 ( 20%)
Total so far: 251
61 - Not at all, saying that the views of armchair members may differ from those of the activists is not expressing an opinion as to whose views are “best”. Indeed, I tend to think they have more perspective and can be BETTER trusted to reach the right result. I don’t think everyone agrees Huhne has had the best campaign - I was attracted by him early on but felt he has been a bit too keen to press party buttons rather than looking outward and have shifted firmly back to Ming.
64 - No, the difference is that it didn’t MATTER that the Tory rank and file were less likely to be YouGov registered (although they were less likely) because they in fact probably had a similar approach to the activists. There is arguably more likely to be disjuncture with the Lib Dems (because Huhne is less well known and has deliberately ticked activists’ tummies) so the flaw that YouGov reaches more activists is no more pronounced than with the Tories but matters much more.
66 To be honest for young heterosexual women or young gay men, it is a hard decision, unless you fancy men old enough to be your (grand?) father.
68. So Alan Simpson and Ken Clare are fighting to be the main challenger.
Abstantions are pretty high!
Not surprised at all by the poll figures . My own view has gone from favouring Hughes to strongly favouring Huhne in the last 2 weeks and I am sure I am not that unique . Think Ming needs to do something special to keep in front .
Alex @ 61. It’s a good point. But although some are good personal friends - all those who are spinning about the ‘armchair members’ and ‘representativeness of YouGov’ are all signed up Mingers / Mignons/ Minarettes. I suppose that says a lot.
To be honest - I echo John13’s sentiment of earlier. I am backing Huhne, but I really am quite relaxed about Ming winning if it came to that.
My feeling is that the poll is about right - Ming is still holding on to the lead, but Huhne has made all the running in the last week. The question is whether any of the 24% of Hughes supporters jump ship on a ‘beat Ming for Charlie’ vote - and whether that is a powerful motivating ‘push factor’ at all.
Like James, I was keener on Huhne before he started campaigning.
If, as has been suggested, attempts will be made to ensure that this poll will never see the light of day because it is not favourable to he who commissioned it, are their any Acts of Parliament that can be used to extract the results?
James What evidence have you for your assertion that … it didn’t MATTER that the Tory rank and file were less likely to be YouGov registered (although they were less likely).
71 I feel really sorry for Graham Allen and John Heppell…
BTW, O/T and may have been discussed, but interesting to note that the SNP price has gone rapidly South on the Dunfermiline market.
And UK Paul. I have asked you this before. You claim to have been a Lib dem voter - but your bitterness and bile about them always makes me doubt that very much.
ramp ramp ramp ramp ramp ramp……..
I have at vast cost commissioned my own polling organization ARSE - Anonymous Random Sample of Electors, to assess the levels of support for the next Lib Dem leader.
Methodlogy was strictly enforced by Mrs Cynthia Payne and Andrea Whiplash. Areas covered were :
Inverness Piss-Heads Unidentified
Winchester Piss-on-the-heads Indentified
Bedlam Asylum for Terminally Dull (Norman) Bakers and Confectioners
The Union of North Devon Dog Catchers
Bermondsey Gayish Cassock Lifters Association
The Sky at Night Opek Branch
Brussels Euro-Federalist Straight Bananna Forum
Quiche Manufacturers of Yeovil
Cornish Incest Family Values Association
…………………………………………
Results todate :
Sir Archibald Sinclair (1st Viscount Thurso)- 78.45%
Jo Grimmond of somewhere up very north - 9.96%
John Jeremy Ashdown (Lord Bosnia cum sub Norton) - 5.78%
Lord Steel of Plymouth Devonport and Spitting Image - 4.36%
Chuck Kennedy of Glenmorangie and Iron Bru - 3.01%
Emlyn Hoooooooson of the Valleys - 2.03%
David Lloyd George (1st Earl of the “Dirty Goat”)- 0.69%
Sir Ming Campbell of Stannah Stair Lift - 0.56%
Christopher Huhne of Greenland and W(h)ales - 0.35%
The Right Reverend Simon Hughes of High and Left Church - 0.00023%
Phillip Book Value of the Party party - 0.000198%
Sample 65,895,012 Taken over the period 0200hrs -0210hrs 07Feb06.
78. I think someone has mentioned they’ve started to open the postal votes (see previous theread, I could have dreamt about it).
Both the Guardian and Indie have publicly come out for Ming.
The Independent says:
“Sir Menzies Campbell brings undoubted authority to the role. He has the overwhelming support of MPs and peers, and enjoys respect in the country. He is the one candidate who should be capable of uniting the party’s left and right wings, and he has stated his intention of professionalising the party.
and
“Sir Menzies is the only candidate with the authority to lead the Liberal Democrats at this difficult time. With the two main parties rapidly converging on the middle ground, British politics urgently needs a strong - and truly liberal - voice”
The Guardian also concluded that that Ming Campbell is the best man to lead the party:
“This will be an an exceptionally demanding period for the Liberal Democrats…Sir Menzies Campbell is the best man to lead them out of their confusions and into the searching challenges of the next election”
Ming Campbell said “ I am taking nothing for granted, but I am convinced that I can offer the party the unity, professionalism and purpose that it needs”.
Okay, here is actual canvass data, admittedly from a very small South East sample with some members from other regions telephoned:-
Huhne first preference 54%
Hughes first preference 29%
Campbell first preference 16%
Most of Hughes’ and Campbell’s second preference votes going to Huhne; Huhne’s going to Campbell. On this very very small sample, Huhne doing very well in his own backyard.
81 Sample size > population of UK… Congrats!
My only limited contribution to whether this “feels” right is that two people I know, who are both quite traditionally liberal and slightly older, started off supporting Ming but have since turned to Huhne. I guess Huhne does have the “big M”.
As a Tory I think the ideal result (excluding the unlikely Simon Hughes victory) would be a *very* close run-off between Ming and Huhne, with Ming just winning. Then the worst of the two wins and there is potential for divisions and infighting, with no significant Cameron-style mandate.
Just a thought on YouGov, surely its accuracy partly stems from the fact that you need to proactively take the questionnaire whereas if someone phones you up, you might answer “reactively” as it were. The point being that the average Internet respondent is demonstrably more committed to politics and will therefore more likely vote. Hence YouGov tends to be very accurately reflect those who would “definitely vote”, resulting in accuracy in things like leadership campaigns, Euro and devolved elections, etc. In theory this should mean less accuracy in general elections but then we have had fairly low turnouts in the two where it has been tested so far!
84: I happen to know the results of canvas data of 186 activists in the South East. Totally different result:
All first preference:
Campbell - 50%
Huhne - 35%
Simon - 15%
85 Anna. My survey’s are indeed most thorough ! ….. and as you may see quite like any other !!
84/87 Is this going to degenerate into a my-sample-is-bigger-than-your-sample argument?
79 - Look at my posts here during the election, look at my posts on digitalspy showing the same.
Maybe it should enter your head that the way you (and other lib dems) have been carrying on turns people off voting lib dem. You may actually be part of the problem, not the solution.
http://forum.digitalspy.co.uk/board/showpost.php?p=4532819&postcount=17
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/04/12/email_form.php?p=790#comment-31804
Any chance of an apology? O stand by my position, with Hughes I may well continue voting lib dem, unlikely with Campbell and definitely not with Huhne. Take it or leave it.
88 Not questioning the thoroughness, just speculating that a few Italians caught you unawares.
89. My sample is 2 (Tabman and Book Value), but I can’t recall very well their full ranking. Have I won something?
61 - I agree with your analysis. Lib Dem members read the Guardian and Indie and watch Question Time listen to Any Questions and watch the Sunday political programmes. That is where nearly all of Huhne’s media campaign has, sensibly, been aimed.
Campbell’s campaign has been limping along from the start, he has visibly spent the campaign repsonding to Huhne rather than setting his own agenda and the attacks on Huhne have consistently backfired - even to the extent of broadcasting the fact that Campbell had started organising his leadership bid even before the dagger that stabbed Kennedy was out of the sheath.
Huhne, whilst maybe not well known to Westminster hacks, is very well known in his own south east patch and also widely known to activists through his policy work.
Hughes has not generated much media coverage and has been behind the other camps in terms of email campaign and literature distribution. He hasn’t said very much in terms of policy. The main coverage he has had has been for his outing.
In this context it is not impossible to believe that Huhne could have overtaken Hughes to win a third of first preferences.
(And I am a definite Huhne supporter but would be happy with either of the other two as leader)
92 Sadly, I don’t think you’re eligible for sexiest MP in Nottingham…
91. Our survey are longer to take. The poor interviewer has to read all the list of all parties we’ve. Some pollsters even name the party’s leader (making the whole thing even longer).
91 Anna. Damn …. I thought the Ashdowns vote was high … these Italians love a man in SBS uniform …. all that rubber and aqualungs !!
92 Andrea. You’ve won a night out with a man in a red leotard …. second prize was two nights out ……….
96. Jack, I’ve nothing to do with the high turnout in Ashdowns. If uou haven’t polled Birmingham Ladywood, you should be safe from me…..
89.FLASH NEWS- NEW LIBDEM POLL!
A poll of all the citizens of The Socialist Republic of Tistovia (sample size=1) has shown a 100% 1st preference for Ming and 100% 2nd preference for Huhne!
The citizens have not voted yet as they are waiting for the ballot paper to come and for Mother to send it up North to the republic.
97 Andrea. I fear my dear Andrea nobody is safe from you ….. not unlike the Inquisition ………….
Nobody Escapes Andrea’s Inquisition.
98 Tistoph. Surely that should be The Citizens Liberal Democracy of Quichetovia ?
100. The republic was founded as a semi-communist state back in the heady days of 2001. The republic has yet to pass a motion renaming itself since liberalising and adopting democracy; mainly due to infighting between leading citizens and a current inability to find; quote “my bloody cuff-links”
101 Tistoph. I find “off the cuff” so much better !
From the British Polling Council website:
Privately Commissioned Surveys
Organisations conducting privately commissioned surveys have the right to maintain the confidentiality of survey findings. However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public by the organisation that commissioned the survey (including its employees or agents), such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings. The client and survey organisation may keep other findings (that have not been published) confidential except where such findings are relevant to the topics covered in questions that have been published or where the question order is relevant to the published results. The research organisation must place other relevant data on its web site within 2 working days of the original release in order to place information already released into proper context or make such information available on request. If other findings cast doubt on those that have been published then the agency must also release those findings.
Does this mean that YouGov need to publish the relevant details of the survey now that its main finding has entered the public domain?
Huhne should make a public call for the data to be released.
102. Alas the republic is indeed facing a shortage of cufflinks and will have to go without for forum on HIV/AIDS issues it is chairing tonight.
g’night all.
104 - At the very least we’d know if they were a pack of lies or not. No full release and you can discount the rumours as just that.
103. The ridiculous thing is that they could announce they were doing such a survey, build up anticipation, and then be obliged to withhold the results. This can’t be a sensible way of proceeding.
Labour Foreign office Minister Kim Howells at the Despatch Box this afternoon…
“It’s not enough to assume that if you eat the right kind of muesli and go to first nights of Harold Pinter revivals and read the Independent occasionally that the drug barons of Afghanistan are going to go away. They are not going to go away”
Marvellous!
re 103. My reading of the BPC rule is that it should be disclosed.
What is interesting is that there has been no attempt to discredit the story which has been up now for several hours.
When I wrote it I put in all the caveats because I have to recognise that somebody could be having me on.
Thanks source - a good piece.
108 What on Earth is the link between muesli and Afghan drug barons?
111 I think it is a reference to “woolly minding liberals” disliking the fact that this is turning into a police state…
[92] If that guy from Newark is the sexiest MP in the county, (presumably false) teeth and all, I’ve probably not missed much by never having had a girlfriend from there.
That pedant writes: are you going to stop being bitchy now? There are other people here who do it so much better…
108/110 Iain/Anna. Yes but Kim Howells was addressing his comments to the Conservative/SWP coalition directly opposite !!
111 If you look on Hansard, the “muesli” comment comes straight out of the blue, in response to Paul Flynn’s suggestion that supporting the income of Afghan wheat farmers might reduce their incentive to grow poppies.
114 Sorry it was Mr Hurd who made that comment. Mr Flynn asked why we were using troops in the Helmland province.
do you get poppy seeds in muesli or just on top of those nice crusty rolls?
116 Oats and wheat with fruit/seeds/nuts if you like. I’ve never heard of muesli with poppy seeds in it.
I got my ballot paper today. For the 1st time ever in an election I don’t know how I am going to vote, I’m a genuine swing voter.
The race looks wide open to me. Funnily enough this is very much what I expected, Ming to start well & then flag, while Hughes appeals to his base and then stalls while the third outsider choice came up unexpectedly. However, as an Oatenista I just didn’t expect that third candidate to be Chris Huhne.
To be honest I’ve always been expecting Ming to win in the end, not because he has run a good campaign, he hasn’t but because I thought a worried & bruised party would choose him as the safe option. Now I’m not so sure.
I’d assumed Ming would get 40-45% of the 1st prereference, while Simon would pull in between 30-35%. Simon has a big base, not just among the activists but also among the wider members, however, I always thought that although he’d do well in 1st preference he would struggle for 2nd preferences and Ming would win in the end after the other votes were distributed.
I had thought that Oaten (and then Huhne) would do well, maybe 20-25% building on his high profile in the 2 south-east regions (which have 20% of the party membership) but I thought he would still come third.
Huhne though now has a real chance, if he can beat Hughes into third, its all to play for, I be very surprised if Campbell could get more than 40% of Hughes’s 2nd preferences. Huhne could win this, though I suspect it’s rather closer between Hughes & he for 2nd & 3rd than the poll suggests.
Well things are getting interesting and I’ve still a little while yet to decide how I’ll vote.
who cares. they’re all crap.
118 Bullseye. Come along dear chap …. we all know you are behind the “Our Viscount” write-in vote !!
BTW it’s good to know that free speech flourishes in Cardiff !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4689442.stm
119 bally eric. That’s hardly a suitable comment about Kim Howells and the governmemt front bench !
Interesting - Huhne’s site is leadintg with Mike’s figures
103 No they don’t have to publish, it’s not in the public domain as a result of an unauthorised leak. If the leak was authorised, then yes.
120 - it’s nothing to do with free speech. I sometimes get a bit annoyed when people go on the media and talk about how refusing to publish means that “we” are being intimated into not doing so. If the only people who could potentially suffer from the publication of a controversial article was the newspaper and the journalists in question then fine. But if people who have nothing to do with the publication, eg. British Nationals in the middle East are those who will be put in danger as a result then the newspapers should show some responsibility. There is nobody in this country who cannot see the cartoons if they want to (unlike, to pick a random example where we should vociferously argue for the right to publish, in Jordan). So the case for publication, especially for a “student” newspaper which is less likely to be sensitive to the consequences of its actions, is not there.
ukpaul. I have been really nice recently (there is no halo emoticon) - I only ask your motives because you rarely say anything positive about the Lib Dems - if, for argument’s sake, I was pretending to be a Tory I would do exactly that. Say things like ‘as a long time Tory voter…’ and then say something negative about their party. I would also try to ramp the perceived weakest candidate.
You can see therefore why I am suspicious, when that is how you act on here. If I am wrong - then I apologise. But if you are a sympathiser, it may be good to say some positive things about the Lib Dems occasionally.
Here’s the bp.c old lags poll
Mingers
Tabman, Book Value, Valerie, Cicero, James, Jon (West country), Dan, Icarus. Me!
Huhne
Paul Lloyd, Oxonian, John13, Mark Senior
Hughes
Gladstone’s Ghost (but not quite an old lag)
Zebidee (otherwise Huhne)
UKpaul (but Paul Lloyd believes he is a troll).
I’m probably missing some - and I haven’t included newer participants.
125.”I only ask your motives because you rarely say anything positive about the Lib Dems ”
maybe he has been affected by the Bob Marhsall Andrews’ syndrome. A very dangerous political illness.
Jack, topic of Cameron getting into top 100 sexiest guys in the world came up at dinner tonight. Out of 6 girls aged
128 …yes…?? You can’ts stop there!!!
128 Not sure what happened to rest of that post…
Out of 6 girls aged under 21, 4 immediately said “He’s alright looking.” So I’m not the only one…
Before you say it… we’ve already thought about block booking the optician…
224. alex. You are Jack Straw and I claim 5 defence contracts !
What vacuous drivel. It’s that sort of mealy-mouthed self censorship that must have the theocratic governments and the Peking junta laughing all the way to the press detention centres.
Zebidee (otherwise Huhne)
Unmasked at last! - I’ll have to change my sig to Zorro. After the William Hague song:
“With your lack of hair and your policies blue…
The only thing I ever get from you. . . “
128/129. I got the impression it was something like last’s Reader Digest poll about most trustworthy people in UK (with Glenda Jackson as the best placed politician in the list).
[23] Is the optician good-looking
?
[234] For [23] read [230]
234 Yes, actually! Unfortunately, my eyesight is very poor without my glasses and he always takes them off me as soon as go to see him…
130 Anna. I suspect Cameoon was 97/100 rather than 97th out of the worlds population ………. indeed :
97. David Cameron.
98. Jabba the Hut.
99. Nicholas Soames (May also be 98).
100. David Mellor. (May also be 98).
137 Indeed! 5/7 girls young enough to be his daughters reckoning that he is OK looking is pretty good going though!
132 - unmasked at last? You’ve told us who you are many a time, haven’t you?
140 That’s a bit harsh towards my friends don’t you think… Besides I’m the only Tory amongst them…
138. Is it the power that attracts?
142 No idea! BTW Cameron isn’t the first politician to make the women’s magazines. A few years back a picture of Tony Blair on the beach appeared in the “Top Torsos” section of a weekly…
139. I thought he was outed.
138. Anna, Everyone has his/her own personal taste. I suppose Mandelson’s boyfriend finds something remotely pleasant in Mandelson too. And he’s young enought to be his son, so like your friends.
141 Anna. Ooppps
…… ” a bit harsh …” ????
Ok ….. you mean not all of them shave ?
144. Perhaps he liked his dogs.
143. A few years ago? you mean a few months ago…..
http://deadrobot.com/images/blog_img/tonyblair_shirtless.jpg
From the posters behind them I note that those girls are from Dumfries and Galloway.
103. Does this mean that YouGov need to publish the relevant details of the survey now that its main finding has entered the public domain?
Yes it does, only the figures that have suckered Mike are not the YouGov figures. If Mike believes otherwise he should recontact Peter Kellner with his numbers and demand full release.
What has actually happened here is that the Huhne campaign have taken at punt at the numbers based on their own canvassing returns (returns that tend to ramp the position of the candidate asking). The person doing the spinning to Guido and Mike is more than likely one of the bloggers4Chris.
The giveaway is the second preferences neither of the other candidates has detected anything other than that Chris does poorly on second preferences except if Menzies comes third when he would do better.
It’s a clever piece of spin, but I wouldn’t bet your shirt on it.
[118] Bullseye- I too might have moved to Huhne, but was very disappointed by the “green proposals” he put forward- more market oriented solutions, such as carbon trading would have been my prefered emphasis. Ming, I now think could be good: he is collegiate and will not retreat to the bunker a la Charles. He is supported by a very large group of the Parliamentary party. He is the guy that most looks like a Prime Minister and is respected across the political spectrum. Putting up Ming against the rather callow David Cameron looks reasonable- especially if DC continues to beat a drum of shallow populism: I liked Mings reworking of Lloyd Bentsen: “I am a Liberal, I know Liberals and I can tell you that DC is no Liberal”.
Moving on- Bon Marshall Andrew’s performance at the Parliamentary glee club last week was fabulous- I think that he and John Fortune must have been separated at birth.
144 Quite! This is the first time so many of my friends have agreed!
145 It’s not commonly thought necessary for women, Jack. Most of my female friends are also unlikely to be mistaken for men…
Isn’t it cute how their ties are each of a different colour: http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41298000/jpg/_41298776_candidatesbody_pa.jpg
Are they trying to send some kind of message?
149. Better than when he played Gordon’s secretary?
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/gallery/image/0,9353,-10405114818,00.html
147 There was a better picture than that earlier. I’d forgotten that one though… I would say thanks for reminding me, but Jack would probably say something cutting…
152 Why does he have a box of tissues in front of him? Or should I not ask?
125 -
If you checked the links I provided from election time you can see that I’d made my allegiance clear. I am a floating voter, although it’s been lib dem for a while now. I would think it’s a good idea for lib dems to listen to those voters they have lost or look like losing and ask themselves why? This is where the two main parties went wrong before they slumped in the polls. I can see the same thing happening with the current campaign.
I’ve said lots of nice things about Hughes recently (and the occasional snippet about Campbell). Maybe, as a Huhne supporter that doesn’t count in your eyes as liberal! As both a social and economic liberal myself I try to see beyond purity of positioning and look to where gains can be made and who is best able to do that.
You have to admit that this election has been a disaster, it’s hardly put liberal ideas into the forefront of the electorate’s minds has it? It has been a pretty snide campaign reaching no further than activists and the membership who can be bothered. Apart that is from the scandals which will stick in the minds of many potential voters.
I also want voters to have a real choice and, with Cameron and Brown occupying similar ground, Huhne will just be standing around behind them trying to get noticed. In a media driven age, performance on TV is all important to enable connection to voters, Huhne does not appeal, he’s no Cameron or Blair, he’s not even a Brown.
If I’m negative it’s to stop you making the big mistakes that I see you making, I want to have a party that I can vote for. The way that it looks I’m going to have a narrower choice and that lack of choice will disenfranchise even more voters than at the moment. We have a government elected by 20% of electors - that’s appalling, if it gets worse the whole idea of democracy may start to disintegrate.
Anna. Was this the pin-up you and your young girl mates have up next to your Arctic Monkeys posters.
http://anotherphoto.textamerica.com/details/?r=4147420 I can see the appeal….
146. woody662, you’re going into a dangerous area….he probably just have an attraction for older men. His previous conquest wasn’t younger either:
http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/about_the_cabinet_office/howell_james.asp
re 148. I stand by my source - and these figures have not been denied.
I have bet my shirt on them because they tally totally with my own extensive conversations with Lib Dem members over the past ten days.
Hughes second preferences will mostly go to Huhne.
Ming’s vote is not very solid.
The momentum is with Huhne.
156 Arctic Monkeys???? Greenday!!!!!
122 - actually Huhne’s site is linking from that bar chart to the Guido Fawkes’ blog. Hmm… doesn’t sound a very reliable source.
158 - After having backed Huhne at 200-1 I would sincerely hope that you haven’t found yourself in a situation of losing your shirt Mike!
A further thought on the authenticity of the figures: The Ming-backer who paid for the survey would surely release the real data if this put his man in a more favourable light.
Alex - a shirt costs £20 - that’s what I put on at 200/1
Labour to win Dunfermline by 3-4,00 from …….
155 - So if Huhne won and stood on a programme of social and economic liberalism you wouldn’t vote for him? Who would you vote for?
O.k., Mike verify those numbers with Kellner if you’re sure. Presumably if it’s an official leak he will confirm them.
ukpaul. Your argument doesn’t quite add up - the candidate who would most chime with the ‘i’m a social and economic liberal line’ would be Huhne not Hughes.
As for elections reaching out etc. etc. That was the model that the Tories took - and in the short term it has given them a boost - but it is becoming increasingly clear that Cameron’s honeymoon with the media is beginning to come to an end, and now he is going to have to start doing something (I had an e-mail from a senior member of the editorial team at Westminster for the Beeb today, who seemed to be indicating that the Cameron love in is beginning to wear a bit thin). Politics is about more than headline grabbing (one way or the other).
Whoever wins the election is going to benefit from a party in a far healthier position than most of the members have ever known, with more seats and more second places up and down the country.
165 - maybe it’s an unofficial leak?
Right I have posted my ballot paper Menzies (who he?) 1 Huhne 2 Hughes 3.
The big decision is whether to invest the rest of my mortgage on IGIndex - I am currently showing £160 profit on Menzies ( AKA Ming) but risking a further £59 will get me £41 when Ming wins.
I have no doubts (and You Gov didn’t ask me for my views even though I am registered as a Lib Dem suporter) that Ming will win.
Mike has seen something in Huhne that hasn’t yet reached the East Midlands let alone the wilder parts of north Britain - is he right?
Anna - aren’t Greenday a bit to left-wing for you?
164 - As I live in Guildford and my main aim is not to have a labour government my vote really doesn’t matter. Events could change things but I’d abstain, the more people who do so the less sustainable this system becomes.
My main anger will be directed at whatever and whoever results in the propping up of this authoritarian administration. Any true liberal would, in my opinion, do what it takes to avoid that.
168 Icarus. No…. Huhne a decent second place, but it’s Ming on the first ballot, having been strongly supported by the armchair tendency !!
Alex @155. How do you know that Huhne will stand for economic liberalism? His policy manifesto contains many elements dear for the economically left wing of the Lib Dems, but not many that would please the economic liberals. He has support of several left-wing Lib Dems, who assure, that despite he contributed to the Orange Book, he isn’t an economic liberal. And indeed, though he contributed to the Orange Book, he also criticised in the Liberator magazine the views that David Laws expressed in the same book.
Sorry, should have been Alex @164.
[159] After a quick research trip to Amazon, I’m increasingly worried about Anna (or at least her musical taste) - “Greenday” sound pure ’70s to me… still, what do I know - my son, aet 23, who is a muso rang me up the other day to share his excitement at having discovered “Pentangle”
ukpaul, despite what I said in 172, I think that most people would agree that Huhne is more economically liberal than Hughes, socially they probably are about equal, and therefore I’m a bit surprised that you as a self-proclaimed libertarian would prefer Hughes to Huhne.
Thank you Jack - my telephone canvassing for Ming supports your thesis - though a few nasties (probably recent converts from other parties not yet “…hello clouds, hello trees…” Liberals like us old hands) were violently against Ming for plotting against Charles.
The mortgage has gone on!!!
166 - You are thinking of me as being a liberal like you; there are many different kinds as you should know.
I am relatively unusual in being a lib dem who is sceptical of Europe, I also don’t like the ideas that Huhne proposes for green taxes. Left/right? I thought you’d been saying that it didn’t matter…… Hughes impressed me with his implacable opposition to ID cards, even to the extent of being imprisoned, my main reasons for voting are on personal liberty and he is the most hardline on this.
Finally, I am interested in power not purity, the seats to be taken are labour’s at the next election. Seat by seat candidates will put up a good fight in tory/lib dem narginals but the national thrust should be to woo labour voters. Result - maybe a hung parliament with a say in the running of the country. I see your solutions as increasing the labour vote and lib dems languishing with no power and influence in perpetuity. I try to look beyond my personal views and allocate my support to achieve best tactical advantage.
19 -Hyacinth “Dan @ 4, in 1999 Hughes got 31.8% of the first preferences, so this would mean a drop of about 11%. Of course, Lib Dem membership has grown since that”
Membership has fallen by approximately 12% since 1999.
175 - Left/Right doesn’t mean much to me regarding my vote, having access to the levers of power does, too many lib dem members seem to be trying to find someone who they agree with the most, not who is best placed to deliver power. Frankly, I’d prefer Laws or Cable, who really are economically liberal unlike the three available choices. They aren’t standing though so my first point is an over-riding one in the reasons for my choice.
178. Vino, you should be voting for your MP here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/image_galleries/nottinghamshire_mps_gallery.shtml
He’s gaining ground.
178 - how much has Labour membership fallen by over the same period?
167. - It’s clearly not an unofficial or official leak. It’s a fake. Let’s look at this rationally.
Who has done this poll first - the assumption at the moment is sources close to if not actually involved in the Campbell or Huhne campaign. More likely the former rather than the later given if it were close to Huhne why not release these numbers direct?
Second the results are great for Huhne, weak for Campbell and a disaster for Hughes, why would anyone close to the Campbell campaign leak that? The whole spin around them is playing into the Huhne momentum story.
Third is it likely that if a poll were run and then not published there would be a large number of people in actual posession of the data? Enough so that if there were a genuine leak it wouldn’t be blindingly obvious who had done it? Particularly just over 24 hours after the close of poll.
Fourth, if you were going to leak, why would you pick Guido and PB to do it, particularly the former? The only rational answer I can think of is that they would love the story, wouldn’t check the source particularly thoroughly and might create enough of a stir adn movement in the betting numbers to provoke the release of the real data.
Fifth, I can’t see where the idea that Hughes would naturally split to Huhne would come from. Hughes is generally a left-positive vote not an anti-Campbell ticket. If you’re a Hughes -1 and an ordinary member, largely reliant on the press coverage are you going to split to the unknown guy or the other big beast. Activists who care about policy maybe more inclined to Huhne’s green ideas, but that’s not a big pool in the membership.
57 - If only Kilroy had been elected in Erewash (is that Nottinghamshire?) Derbyshire.
It is wrong to believe that a jump to the left (ie Hughes) automatically picks up Labour seats. Lib Dems picked up Labour seats this time by simultaneously picking up Labour votes and squeezing Tory votes (in former Tory seats like Leeds NW, Bristol W, Cambridge, Manchester With, Falm and Camb etc) by appearing not too left wing.
Simultaneously, to pick up Tory seats, not only do usual Tories need to be won over, but the Labour vote needs to be squeezed.
It is a myth to believe that Simon Hughes will help the LDs win Labour seats therefore. If he becomes leader, Tories in the seats mentioned above may revert to their roots and Labour will win them. Move to the left at your peril. It is difficult to tell, but I think Hughes would a gift to the Tories, and the Lib Dems would lose seats to both other parties.
83. Vino, it’s Derbyshire
180 - Andrea - have just voted for Paddy Tipping - a nice bloke and a good MP
186. vino, I voted for Nick.
181 - Charlie’s Aunt - Ain’t got a clue
185 - Andrea - that’s what I was trying to say!!!
189. Ah, ok. I wait a similar poll for Derbyshire with Edwina being the top judge!
In a waiting room this evening I found myself faced with a choice of ‘The Sun’. It was teaming with breasts….. but from amongst them I found an interesting article about Gordon Brown and his new ‘advisors’complete with photos……. Alan Greenspan, Nelson Mandela, Alan Sugar, Joanna Lumley, Bono, Richard Attenborough etc etc who all say Gordon’s ‘the man’!
If I know my PR this is the way it starts. Associate him with the ‘right people’ get them to say he’s the smartest man they’ve met and before you can say “Chantelle” ‘Gordon’s name ‘ will be everywhere. I suspect the fight back has begun. And as all Tories will tell you know ‘never underestimate the determination of the quiet man……..’
188 - well, I calculate that between 1997 and 2004 Labour Party Membership fell by 38%. (Source: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1190279,00.html )
191. “Alan Greenspan, Nelson Mandela, Alan Sugar, Joanna Lumley, Bono, Richard Attenborough etc etc who all say Gordon’s ‘the man’! ”
Who’s Gordon Brown’s Adam Rickitt? Ah, ok, after Glenda experience, no more actors for Labour
184 - SBS - a good post but from my political point of view having Simon Hughes as Lib Dem leader would scare me - for reasons I can’t indentify I associate SH with “Labour” policies,MC appears to be more Tory than the Conservative Party whist Hulne appears to be an attempt to out-Cameron Cameron.
192 - Charlie’s Aunt -”The latest published figure of 248,294 ” well just a little bit more than 73,000.!!
193. Andrea, Joanna Lumley is an actress: http://www.filmbug.com/db/165622
195 - that was in 2004. We don’t know what its fallen to now.
196. Ah, yes, Kevin. Patsy! I haven’t noticed her name when I read Roger’s post. My bad
Are any leading London Lib Dems backing Simon Hughes? Don’t see that many listed on his website?
193: Three of those people on the list don’t live in Britain and as far as I know never have? They don’t have to pay his high taxes.
184 - Which is why I prefer a leadership of Hughes combined with an economic team around Cable and/or Laws. It’s sellable in both directions. Put your eggs in one basket at your peril, lib dems can;t afford to lose votes to either party.
184 - ukpaul - agree but the Lib Dems wouldn’t be that sensible - would they?
sorry 202 meant for 201
202. Vino. you agree with SBS@ 184 (not electing Hughes) and ukpaul@201 (elect Hughes). what am I missing?
195&197 - also take out the Union block(I wish someone would)and the figure would be hugley different. As it would/will be when a large part of the Tory membership shuffles off to the other side. (having an older average membership age than the two others)
http://cache.gettyimages.com/xc/56773564.jpg?v=1&c=MS_GINS&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF19390335F8FA9CA92A6EFACC49EC7DD0C2DF06BF04B24B4128C
204 - Andrea - sorry I wasn’t very clear - what I’m trying to say is that from my point of view Hughes as Lib Dem leader would attract more Labour supporters than Campbell or Hulne hence I would not like to see him elected.
207. Vino, I think all of them could potentially attract Lab supporters, but probably different kinds of current Lab voters.
Gordon is playing his cards brilliantly.
Any news on tomorrow’s poll?
Rik W - I see from your post on the earlier story about Muslim defections to Labour. I would say good riddance to them, do the think any political party is pure as the driven snow.
Labour has the blood of Muslims on its hands, I think that may be slightly worse then being gay and lying about it!
However as this weekends protests shown its easy to protest over the small inconsequential things, the big things that matter are of no concern to these type of people. An easy target and a cheap shot is al they care about, as I say I wish them good riddance.
208 - Andrea - true but Simon Hughes in my view, for what it’s worth, would appeal more to the working class type of Labour voter which is still the bed rock of the Labour Party.
211 - Big Mak - I think that is a rather extreme statement!
212. yup, I see what you mean. Hughes could appeal to those voters, while Cameron to middle-class former tory. The other 2 LD could appeal more to middle-class centre-ground Labourite (like DC) and so your party would have only one front open (and the chance to see switchers splitted among the 2 contenders).
Rik. Con 37
Lab 36
215 - LD?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2030079,00.html
LD at 18%
to the “preferred prime minister” question, Brown 38% and Cameron 33%
Tories recovering among middle class people
214 - Andrea - exactly - if the Lib Dems don’t pick Hughes it becomes a fight btween them and the Tories.
Thanks Andrea. Labour can’t have been helped by Jack Straw’s weasily criticism of newspapers publishing the Danish cartoons, compared to the much more forthright stance of David Davis and Dominic Grieve.
It also bears out my view that we don’t want the Lib Dems to do *too* badly.
More good coverage for Huhne:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2030084,00.html
213 - Rik, you would argue that the war was not illegal, and has not killed many innocents on all sides. Not sure how Muslims who backed the Lid Dems due to their stance on the war could go over to Labour because of personal stupidity of two men. This over the most divisive issue to face any government since Sues. Not extreme at all just the truth.
217. That will do. Is that every polling company that has us in the lead now?
220 - Sean Fear - you may not want the Lib Dems to do *too* badly but I do.!!!
124. No, Vino, you don’t want. You would like to see them to keep LD-Con marginals to keep the tories away from a majority.
223: I’m reasonably happy with that poll from the Labour viewpoint too - after a distinctly troubled week I’ll settle for a 1% Tory lead and Brown ahead of Cameron. The LibDems should be reasonably reassured too. Basically nobody is doing wonderfully or terribly at the moment.
225 - Andrea - whilst you are correct I would still like to see the Lib Dems do badly!!!
If you read the end of the Poll story in The Times they have a little dig at DC, along with a funny(ish) article on The Guardian online is there just a little DC weariness and overload going on? Or is that just me!
226. I see you have 5% in the poll of polls Nick.
228.The Times also have an article with the following headline: “Cameron ridiculed for Iraq U-turn”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2030078,00.html
230- This man is defiantly for turning – David Cameron Feb 2006
230 - Interesting snippet in that article about Iraq -
“Support for withdrawal is highest among Conservative supporters (63 per cent), in contrast to the party’s official policy of staying until Iraq is stable. Tories are also more opposed to the war generally (68 per cent) than other voters. ”
Maybe the ‘u-turn’ is based on solid polling advice?
Just had a report from Dunfermline from a couple of people I know quite well who have been up there all week.
To distill a 20 minute conversation.
SNP looking “grim-faced” when spotted out canvassing.
Tories being heavily squeezed.
High spirits in the LD camp.
Lots of workers for the LDs - over 100 daily. Lots of good literature going out - dodgy bar charts and all :-). Definitely positive. The source is one of the most pessimistic I know, and he was talking about “a pretty good result”.
All anecdotal, I know, but it wasn’t out of whack with other reports on this site today.
Reasonable poll result. 17% - 19% is a good base for the new Lib Dem leader to start rebuilding from, and is evidence that the much hoped for collapse by some on here is unlikely to happen.
233.”SNP looking “grim-faced” when spotted out canvassing”
Nicola Sturgeon always looks like this! (at least when I see her on TV).
It is truly a seismic event if Populus now has the Tories in the lead. Even The Times seems to grudgingly accept this is now the case, despite everyone else already knowing this since December.
A 1 point lead in Populus must equate to a 10% lead in a proper poll?
234 - agreed. It was also nice to see Alex Salmond state that Gordon Brown was a typical dour Scot on the C4 Political Award yesterday. Salmond is about as un-dour as anybody can be.
Times has a survey of 171 LD members after the hustings in Cardiff on Monday:
MC 42
SH 32
CH 52
Don’t Know: 45.
It also suggests Huhne comes out top on second preferences.
Certainly an encouragement for Huhne. But the number of survey and the high number of don’t knows make it difficult to assess whether this is an accurate reflection of views nationwide.
235 - that last sentence is absurd, but I think you know it.
That article in the Times is hilarious. Cameron’s reputation for saying anything different from the Tories previous positions shows that either the Tories were wrong about just about everything they said they believed in before or that Cameron is just shamelessly desperate for power. Either way, more articles like that and the honeymoon will end as quickly as it began.
235- Not getting too excited 3 years from a GE I see, keeping it all in perspective.
A couple of points - I’m not a declared ‘minger’ I am tending towards him, but am genuinely undecided (although Hughes is third at the moment and fourth last time!).
UK Paul - a quick question. Instead of sniping on the sidelines - why not join the Lib Dems? That way you not only get a vote for leader (and all other office bearers) in a truly democratic system - you also have the right to decide policies and strategies through the conference and other fora. If you are unsure of our policies come inside and fight for for what you beleive?
That way no-one (not even Paul Lloyd or Charlies Aunt) will think you are a Tory! Not even me!!!
237. I agree those type of surveys aren’t accurate, but they help to generate momentum for Huhne.
Times also has a Populus poll of 1,508 between 3 and 5 Feb.
Cons 37 (up one cf Jan), Lab 36 (down 3) and Lib Dem 18
This is a sample of people who attended one of the official hustings - it is therefore unlikely to be representative of members as a whole. It DOES reflect that Huhne is picking up support once people see him BUT maybe only approaching 10% of the voting members will attend a hustings.
Bob, the Populus result is in line with everyone else’s, putting us and Labour at level-pegging; the events of the past week may hit Labour a bit though.
Sorry to repeat info, hadn’t spotted above posts
239 - Or it could just mean that you are wrong and very desperate!
247. but Rik, that would mean that both the main opposition parties are wrong and desperate!
240 - Oh come on Rik, even colleagues at work with no interest in politics have noticed the back flips that Dc is performing, and even the not interested think there’s something fishy about his change of direction/s.
241 - I just can’t agree with any party enough to join. The political tests online always position me as being way away from any party (and that includes all minor parties too!). If there was a libertarian party with any clout I’d probably join that but there isn’t.
For information on my positioning I was once a labour party member and, as a student, was elected under that banner. Voted green once, voted lib dem for much of the last decade and never been interested in voting tory (can’t stand anything socially conservative). Cameron is, however, looking promising and I can imagine that many like me are thinking the same, hence their rise in the polls.
I’m surprised that Mike appears so downbeat in his opening commentary about Huhne’s prospects of winning.
For this late entrant,coming from nowhere to 34% in just three weeks is quite remarkable.
Although the sample size is not stated,this is likely to be quite modest and half M the M’s apparent 6% lead could therefore be down to statistical error.
Clearly the momentum is with Huhne, add to this the fact that he has a lead in terms of 2nd preference voting and that Hughes’ own share may well slip below 20% as he is seen as a no-hoper and the situation starts to look very good indeed for Huhne.
Finally, Ming must surely have attracted a significant level of support as the safe pair of hands in the post panic period following the Oaten & Hughes revelations - which factor is likely to subside over time.
Taken together,I can well imagine Huhne emerging as favourite as the voting deadline approaches - time for you to buy back Huhne perhaps Miof?
Somewhat O/T, but can anyone remember Simon Hughes actually having an established girlfriend - I ask this only out of curiosity in the light of his claim to being bisexual.
Desperate Rik?:lol: Are you going to fall into line over the new ‘Iraq-sceptic’ Tory line as well? Was it only yesterday you were arguing the opposite?
151.”but can anyone remember Simon Hughes actually having an established girlfriend - I ask this only out of curiosity in the light of his claim to being bisexual. ”
he said he has a couple of serious relationships. Then having or not having an established girlfriend doesn’t answer your question (if I’ve understood what you meant).
249 - I think the problem DC is having is that his road to Damascus experience has been so sudden. Labour spent years as a chrysalis metamorphosising into the rather unpleasant butterfly, or rather moth, it now is. By the time it came to power in 1997, many people had forgotten not only the winter of discontent, but also the longest suicide note in history (1983 manifesto).
Come 2009, or whenever, what the Tories espoused as their values, whether right or wrong, in 2005 will still be remembered, and will count against them. It would probably have helped if Howard had hung around for a few years (to act as the Tory Neil Kinnock) before letting DC take over.
Tories will now post messages saying the values have not changed. Well if you have not flip-flopped (as Labour so clear did between 1983 and 1997 - CND, Europe etc), the public will find out, and the polls improvement could melt away.
247 - Lib Dem freefall seemsto have stopped then Rik Any MP’s defected today ?
252 - no Paul - I apply a rather less superficial analysis than you seem to.
255 - Mark you get so excited so easily - lol
I told you - watch this space.
256 - Rik, I think I have asked you this before but does the LD defection depend on who wins the leadership? if not why do they not jump now?
254 - I don’t think any of the policy reviews or rethinking of unpopular and ill-conceived policies announced since Cameron took over remotely equates to Labour’s shifts on, say, CND or the EU.
Funny isn’t it how it was fashionable to slag off the Tory Party’s policies up to 6th December 2005, yet it is now fashionable to slag them off for reviewing and rethinking these very same policies since that date under its new CEO. I have no doubt that the Labour/LD supporters above would have loved the Tories to carry on ploughing their (perceived) nasty right-wing lonely furrow, but some of us have recognised that if the Tory Party can reconnect with its public again, the gains are there to be made.
256. Rik, I see in your CV an appearance in a show called “Live & Kilroy”. Is it something with Kilroy-Silk?
If so, I would leave it out of my CV and deny any link!
258 - question Bib, why did it take DC to do this, if you guys thought that why the hell to you go through an election with those thoughts?
Also lets be honest DC was not in the running at first, what would have happend if Davis or Clark won? I don’t think your post above would have been the same??
163 - Andrea, I know what he said when the whole NOTW thing blew up - it’s just that over a very long political career, I just don’t recall ever seeing pictures of or reading about him being associated with any girlfriend.Nothing wrong with that of course and he does lead a very busy and committed political life - like I said,I was just curious!
258 - Sorry that should have been Bob!
Many of the comments above accept as given that Simon Hughes is “left wing”. This assumption is then used as a basis on which to extrapolate all kinds of electoral outcomes.
It is a questionable assumption and those who make it never bother to produce any evidence.
In fact, in Lib Dem terms, Hughes is fairly mainstream. His views don’t differ markedly from those of, say, Alan Beith. He is certainly to the left of the hardcore ‘Orange Book’ tendency but then so are a large majority of the party’s members (contrary to the ludicrous claims made periodically on PB by ‘Bullseye’ - the man who recently advised us to bet our shirts on Mark Oaten). And Hughes has not made outspoken criticisms of the Lib Dem Treasury team (unlike, say, Paul Holmes or Alistair Carmichael).
In policy terms, there’s little to choose between the three contenders. For example, their answers to the questionnaires set by ALDC and by Liberator magazine reveal no real differences of substance. The choice is about personality and style, and party members can’t really complain if that’s what the media are interested in.
I can think of many valid criticisms of Hughes but being a “dangerous lefty” isn’t one of them. There’s naturally a lot of spin going on and PB regulars ought to have the experience to recognise it when they see it.
250 - UK Paul fair enough - but you can’t credibly claim you are a committed Lib Dem then. I will continue to take your strategic advice to the party with the big pinch of salt it deserves.
Lookign forward to Rik’s evidence of defections (or indeed a straight answer to Big Mak’s question).
256 Can’t get overexcited about something that was pure Conservative spin anyway Rik
63. The problem is not if he’s really a leftist or not, the problem is how he’s seen/perceived.
I don’t think he’s a loony leftist, but he’s seen as more leftist than the others (press included).
258 - agree, it’s nothing like on the scale of Labour’s 14 year mammoth flip-flop; at least, not so far. It’s just a simple matter of whether Cameron means what he says, and will the bulk of the Tory party allow him to carry on saying it? Is he thinking what we’re thinking? And are the rest of them?
Re my comment above on the Populus poll, I obviously wasn’t seriously suggesting the Tories might be 10 points ahead, but it is undeniably the case that whilst every other pollster has put the Cameron Conservatives around 1-2 points ahead of Labour, Populus has been registering them at 3-4 points below Labour. So whilst today’s poll appears to put Populus “in line” with the others, on the basis that Populus has been shy of the true Tory position over the past couple of months, then it may suggest the trend is for a continuing strengthening of the Tory position over the past week rather than a levelling off as some on here would like to think.
Just reminded me of a scene from the musical ‘Billy Elliot’ which I saw last week. There’s a miner’s benefit opening the second act (including an anti-Thatcher song) and they announce that a new firebrand local MP is coming next week to talk about the ‘future of socialism’. His name is Tony Blair (cue ironic audience laughter).
Great show, if you can get yourself a ticket go see it!
Political footwear:-
Lib Dems - s(c)andals
Tories - flip flops
Greens - barefoot
Labour - ??? - jackboots perhaps.
161. I loved the comment of a Southwark local councillor “with a busy political life he led, I’m surprised he found time to have affairs of any types” (paraphrazing, I can’t recall the exact words)
264 - Dan, You don’t seem to understand, or not wish to understand that UK Paul has consistently described himself as a floating voter, but one who has tended to support the LibDems over recent years.
All I can say is to express my hope that we Tories can evolve in attitude, approach and then policies, such that those like UK Paul may feel able to give us the benefit of the doubt in the future. I think we can.
263 - Simon T - “Many of the comments above accept as given that Simon Hughes is “left wing”. It’s only your post that says this!
I always thought that UK Paul was one of the more obvious trolls.
264 - I’m a floating voter, if you hadn’t noticed we’re the ones whose votes win or lose elections. Labour lost sight of that in the 80’s and the tories in the 90’s. If I was you I wouldn’t make the same mistake.
My vote lies with the lib dems and it’s not a good idea to be so cavalier with your supporters, framkly we matter to the party’s success more than the die hards who will vote lib dem anyway.
266 - Yes Andrea, but where has this perception come from? I don’t recall Hughes being labelled as especially “leftist” until the leadership campaign started. If Hughes had been actively involved in the Beveridge Group of Lib Dem MPs, the label might have been warranted.
The label came from the spinning of the Oaten campaign, which sought to knock out Campbell (by labelling him as the “assassin”) and Hughes (”dangerous lefty”). And look where it got them.
272 ukpaul’s postings have been a little inconsistent at times giving the impression he is an old fashioned Liberal a la Meadowcroft and supporting the perceived most left wing candidate Hughes and yet being a floating voter considering the Conservatives and anti-Labour . Perhaps he can clarify but I am just a tad confused - I know Rik no need for obvious comment .
I can believe numerous impossible things before breakfast, but I doubt if “die hards who will vote Lib Dem anyway” exist anymore, if they ever did.
74 - Check my posts back to the election. I was vociferous in my support for lib dems. Maybe you’re so blinkered that you can’t see past the idea that voters are monoliths who will always vote the same.
Trolls are those who post merely to get a reaction, and I could name posters from all parties who fit that description, yourself included. Maybe you’re not comfortable with the idea that voter’s views are not fixed in the same way that the party activists on here are. Take a tip - the real world’s a different place to the inside of a labour/tory/liberal club.
Could some give me an answer to two general quesions about elections.
1. Why do they open postal votes days before the election days.
2. How do they know who is going to be first or second. Voters who said they would vote might not go to the polling booth at all for any number of reasons.?
279 - well said - perhaps be a good idea if party activists/members were banned from the site !!!
Forgive me, perhaps I have misunderstood the meaning of the word. For my part, on the rare occasions on which I do make a posting, I tend to ask questions rather than make statements (except on the meaning of the d’Hondt formula!) because I do not pretend to know the answers. I do realise, of course, that asking questions can sometimes provoke a response.
178 - I wonder what all those Labour “die hards” are saying about dear TB and his ID cards, School reforms, Nuclear power stations…..
and the dear old Tory “die hards” who backed the war in Iraq, wanted asylum seekers locked up and also backed ID cards.
Who needs die hards, seems the other parties sh** on them from a great height as and when needed.
Also the 13% who stuck with the Lid Dems through a torrent of Murdoch backed savagery, me thinks they may be a bit more than floating voters.
281 - Ah, Vino, a gloriously true New Labour posting that
281 Now now Vino , you know you would miss the spats between Rik and myself and others . Time for bed now though .
281 - and who would you talk to, yourself, ah yes I get the New Labour bit now!
I find the publishing of these poll details totally unethical.
277 - Every time I vote it’s a total compromise, I’ve never said anything other than that I’m a libertarian at heart. In our political world that means that I have to search around for something or someone to support. Given that labour is too authoritarian and the tories too socially conservative for a libertarian to consider voting for them then the default is lib dem (hoping that the liberal part is more powerful than the social democrat part).
I appreciate you can’t read every post I’ve made but ‘on this thread’ I’ve posted that I would want Hughes because he will position the lib dems best in gaining power. The others would also allow a labour government more easily. Being a libertarian getting rid of the most authoritarian party takes priority and that is labour. Hughes is also strong on personal liberty, something which is at the top of my voting concerns. I’d prefer if he was more ecoonomically liberal but with Cable or Laws that’s taken care of.
I understand that party members will never realise the complete compromise over politics that someone like myself has to make. There will always be many ideas for each candidate/party which I am not comfortable with but at least, unlike 40% of the population I try and find that compromise. Maybe it’s just not worth it anymore.
(As a side issue I was at University with Meadowcroft’s son!)
284/286 - trolling and caught you both!!
289 - Vino, well done, you can sleep easy now.
286 - Big Mak - I’m used to talking to myself but I win every argument!
291 - and with that I’m off to bed.
Met Meadowcroft once. Glum chap - but he was an ex-MP by then. He said he never liked the SDP, but always got on well with David Owen (and never with David Steel). Think he’s pretty much been chucked out of the Liberal party (such as it is) now.
288 - Thanks for the clarification , I do understand that political choices are never as black and white as some would have us believe . Now zzzzzzzzzzzz
Yeh thanks UK Paul - I won’t be actively seeking your endorsement for my views because I’m sure I’m not worthy of your condescention.
AnnaK - I don’t know the answer to why postal votes are ‘opened’ before polling day - thee is no logical reason (other than bureaucratic efficiency). It’s just always been done that way.
I’m assuming with your second question you mean how do parties get to know how the votes split? What happens at the postal vote ‘opening’ - not count is that the envelopes are opened and the statement of identity are separated from the ballot papers. These used to be in separate envelopes (but with some new Labour reforms they have reduced the security and anonimity of PVs - hence the various frauds), but I’m not so sure these days.
Anyway once opened the number ballot papers are then counted (but not the votes on them) to check that they tally with the votes issued. Each ballot paper has a security number on them which (should) allow electoral staff to check they are legitimate. They have to be counted face up for this purpose - which allows political party observers to see how they split. This is what people refer to as ‘box counts’. In the case of postal votes they are then added to the piles of ballot papers at the main count after the polls have closed.
295 - Dan, Goodness, you really do go out of your way to be personally offensive, don’t you? You’re a class act…
I’ll suggest to my local LibDems that they invite you to join their canvassing team…
95. sorry, Dan, correct me if I’m wrong, but shouldn’t postal votes opened in advance being opened face down and the counted at the final count?
I recall a debate about it here in the last week before the GE.
295: Dan, Thanks for your answer. There has to be a better way of doing it.
296 - John O - and Dan wonders why my support is wavering?!?
It would be so easy to come on here and support a party ‘right or wrong’, I’d be lying to myself if I did though.
299 - Absolutely. Quite astonishing….
300. John, don’t pick up a fight and go to bed! Think if the lovely Clare would read you
301 - I hear and obey :P. Good Night….
302 - Me too.
(Feeling politically unwanted
)
279. I remember your posts going a way back (I’ve been reading pbc for much longer than I’ve been posting) and they’ve been interesting (and consistent). In no way do you come over as a troll.
297 - Andrea - no the verification stage should always be done face up (despite the ignorance of some Returning Officers).
There may be some different rules for Euro elections however.
305 - I must admit I didn’t know that Dan. Every opening of PVs that I’ve attended has involved the ballot papers being placed face down. I recall one of the Party’s senior agents challenging this and being shown regulations which supported the case of the Returning Officer.
I see that as the night draws on, the insults fly and the discussion crawls…
The poll figures would make sense, although I’m disappointed with Hughes’ figure…he shouldn’t be as far behind as that.
Huhne has momentum, but is the campaign too short for him? I can’t help thinking that he would do better in a Conservative-style election over months and with rounds. He is emerging as a credible stop ming candidate though.
SH needs to step up a gear; he’s not the loony leftie he’s made out to be, and has a credible policy platform, and in many ways is the natural heir of Charles Kennedy’s ‘not another Conservative party’ direction. He needs to make that a key message! As said above, he’ll connect with natural Labour voters better than Huhne and far better than Campbell. But he won’t go down so well in the middle class intellegentsia, so will have a tough ride in the media, especially with recent revelations.
My pack arrived today, containing an A3 statement from each candidate.
Ming’s is mainly namechecking with photos of Kofi Annan, Paddy Ashdown, and a huge list of supporters etc, with some vague stuff on why he would be so good that could apply to any of the candidates.
Hughes scans like a Lib Dem election leaflet, plenty of photos, slogans, extended personal letter, and of course the obligatory bar chart. The reasons he gives why he is the best candidate seem better thought out and for me, more compelling.
Huhne’s is dull but slick, making much of his time outside politics. Will this be a key issue among members? He seems to say that he’s the ‘non-politicians politician’ I think he has better strengths than that, as shown by his 4 point manifesto at the end (poverty, foreign affairs, environment, local spending.) For the record I’m voting
1)HUGHES - looks like a leader, acts like a Liberal, he will win votes and seats.
2)HUHNE - has really impressed me, I don’t mind dull when I can have slick and knowledgeable. Bit worried with how some of his (e.g. green) policies will play in key seats, he will have a hard job selling them.
3)LEWIS - Dark horse but with increasing support across the country his moderate views (have you heard him say anything extreme?) and lack of enemies make him a credible candidate.
4)CAMPBELL - I’ll still support if he becomes leader, but our great statesman doesn’t look like a leader right now, and has too many question marks over his role in Charles Kennedy’s departure.
264: ukPaul-a floating voter resting with the Lib Dems on principle, great! I was that way for ages, joined about a month ago and haven’t regretted it. Like you say, I hope I don’t turn into a manifesto spouter, and keep the ability to criticise my party constructively.
256: Crossing over live to Rik W with the Defectometer-what’s the latest?
“Exciting developments over here tpfkar-Mrs Miggins of Cheshire has been thinking about defecting all evening, and a previously loyal Bassett Hound in Dunstable has been seen doing his business in the garden of a prominent Lib Dem activist. More on these stories as we get it.”
226: “Basically nobody is doing wonderfully or terribly at the moment.” Sounds about right to me, and I can sleep in peace now - Thanks Nick
p.s. i voted for you
Simon T @ 263
I’ve never said that the orange book represents the majority of party opinion, quite the reverse, although I’m an Ornage Booker I believe small govt liberals are about only 20% or so of the party, however I also believe that big govt welfarist about only 25% or so, with the undogmatic centre taking up the vast swathe of opinion in the middle.
As for Hughes, I’m on record as saying that he isn’t as leftwing as people think and that he would be a far more unifying figure in policy terms than many are suggesting. As for spinning by the ‘Oaten camp’ being responsible for him being labelled leftwing I would point out that a number of the former Oatenistas are now down as public Hughes supporters.
Before you personally attack someone in future perhaps you might have the wit or indeed politeness to actually read what they say first.
306 - Dan is wrong again! The rules issued to ERO say that the ballot papers must be verified face down. The verification numbers are on the back of the ballot paper. HOwever, some less informed (or friendly) staff will count them face up occasionally. In Sutton they were very strict about them being face down. In Reading it was more “flexible”!
As a former parliamentary candidate and councillor I’ve voted Hughes 1 and not used my 2nd & 3rd preferences. I thought that the literature supporting Hughes that came with the voting paper will appeal to activists.
My wife who is a member but not an activist and knew nothing before about Huhne (even though he was once our MEP) tells me that she was voting for him based on the literature. He obviously has appeal to the non-activist member.
I will personally be very disappointed with a poor showing from Hughes as it will signal a move by the party to the right. The only positive thing about Huhne being elected over Campbell would mean that we won’t have another election after the caretaker stands down after the next GE. Then would could have an even more right wing leader from the orange book brigade.
These new brand of MPs are only in the position that they are in due to the campaigning techniques pioneered by Hughes over 7 GE.s
If not elected he must be given a senior front bench role to keep activists active!
As a note to Dan at 305. The opening of PVs is not the verification. Those papers tend to be flick counted for the verification on the night often before anyone arrives.
The verification is supposed to be face up and I have created a fuss at many counts where the workers were doing it wrong. I just wish it was told to the staff in advance.
311 - OK - I will not split hairs over terminology. The first opening of the postal votes happens several days before polling day itself (and sometimes in more than one session). At this point when the postal ballots are verified as valid they should be examined face down.
312. Rik I was agreeing with you. I promise to try not to do that too often. I was not even picking on the terminology but agreeing on the face down