Where’s the betting value in the French election?
April 3rd, 2007
Are Sarkozy backers right to be so confident?
With just over two and a half weeks to go before the first round of voting in the French Presidential election betting opinion in the UK seems to be hardening behind the Right’s Nicolas Sarkozy.
Almost everyday at the moment French journalists are contacting me about the UK betting interest in the fight and for them I have presented the chart showing changing sentiment in the betting in terms of implied probabilities that the best odds represent.
As can be seen the main move in recent weeks has been away from the centrist candidate, François Bayrou, who at one stage was getting very close to Sarkozy and the Socialist party’s Ségolène Royal in the polls.
The critical element in the French system is which two candidates will win most votes in the first round of voting because only them go through to the final round. For a period it looked as though Bayrou might squeeze into a run-off place and some polls suggested that he could beat Sarkozy.
He’s now slipped back in the polls and it appears at the moment that the second round will be the contest that everybody had been predicting - the right’s Sarkozy against the left’s Royal.
But after what happened in 2002 when the polls totally underestimated support for the Front National’s Jean-Marie Le Pen you cannot be totally certain. He just squeezed past the Socialist candidate to make the final run-ff against Chirac.
What I find interesting are polls that ask how respondents voted five years ago. In a number of instances the percentage of those saying Le Pen is only about the total who actually did go that way in 2002. Could the same be happening again and the impact of the Front National be being understated. If that is happening who would be the loser?
Mike Smithson
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I can reasonably foresee two possibilities: Sarkozy and Royal, or Sarkozy and Le Pen. (Bayrou will be 4th in the first round). In either case, Sarkozy will win. Royal can’t possibly win; she is to France 2007 as Kinnock was to UK 1992.
btw, when are the exact dates of the French election?
Unashamedly O/T but yet more evidence that the Home Office, if not the entire government, is still not fit for purpose:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/6518821.stm
If I were to be tasked with increasing the prison population as quickly as possible, I could think of no better way to do it. Drug addiction is the overwhelming cause of the increase in crime over the last 20-30 years.
Will the Tory and Lib Dem shadow ministers harry the government mercilessly on this one? I doubt it.
I don’t know anything about France Mike but expect you’re right!
The independent newspaper has an article on UK politics
“The weighted average of the main surveys conducted in March puts the Conservative Party on 39 per cent (up one point since February), Labour on 31 per cent (down one) and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (no change). So the Tory lead has stretched from six to eight percentage points in a month.
The findings suggest that Mr Cameron has found new momentum after appearing to hit a plateau late last year. They also point to a set of poor results for Labour at the 3 May elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and English local authorities. Privately, Labour sources admit the party faces a “bloody nose” in Tony Blair’s final elections as party leader. He is expected to announce his resignation a few days later.
However, there are growing fears among Labour MPs that his successor, probably Gordon Brown, may find it hard to turn round the widening poll deficit and regain the initiative from the Tories.
Translated into a general election result, the latest “poll of polls” would give the Tories 308 seats, Labour 268, the Liberal Democrats 43 and other parties 31.
Although Mr Cameron would then need some collaboration from the Liberal Democrats to govern, a further small advance by his party would deny Labour the option of forming a pact with the Liberal Democrats to retain power.
“There is good reason why Labour backbenchers might be getting jittery about their future careers as Blair’s resignation approaches,” said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures from the regular surveys conducted last month by ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus, YouGov and CommunicateResearch.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2414769.ece
any predictions on May at all
re 1. In 2002 the Socialist’s Jospin failed to get to the second round because the polls understated Le Pen and the left believed it had the luxury of voting for a range of left wing candidates. With that memory still strong Royal has a hugely powerful final week strategy to get the left behind her on the first round. Now that Bayrou appears to be declining I find it hard to see Sego not getting to the final.
The really interesting voting dynamic is on the right and Sarkozy could suffer with Front National supporters being more ready to express their support for Le Pen. Last time the polls led to the left splintering - this time it could be the right.
As to the final that is a totally different proposition - that’s when you are really choosing your President and I think that Royal might surprise us. Don’t underestimate the gender factor.
As to the Kinnock comparison from 1992 he was doing well in the polls right up to the point that people started voting.
4 - “The really interesting voting dynamic is on the right and Sarkozy could suffer with Front National supporters being more ready to express their support for Le Pen. Last time the polls led to the left splintering - this time it could be the right”
Mike, last time Chirac got 20% and Le Pen got 17%. If that isn’t classed as the right splitting (if not splintering) then i don’t know what is.
If I recall right, Chris from Paris had a second round poll of Sarko 51, Royal 49 yesterday. If so, surely the value is now with Royal?
And IA @ 3: good spot, it’s pretty grim reading; instead of investing in drug education and treatment, we spend money on using police cells/magistrates cells as prisons because we have too many prisoners to cope with.
From a betting point of view (and starting from this point as a punter), it appears that it is good value to go for Ms Royal.
However, from a political standpoint, I wonder which of the candidates is favoured by the European and British establishments? Any French president will fight for French interests within the EU, but of course some personalities are more open to make deals and compromises than other. Le Pen is obviously the one that the EU don’t want to see as President (not that he is likely to get the job, of course), because his French nationalism would make him difficult to deal with.
Assuming that the choice boils down to the two front-runners, Royal and Sarkozy, which of the two of them are likely to be the more co-operative with the EU, and which of them is more likely to be able to establish friendly relations with the UK? I ask this, because I’d like to see an improvement in Franco-British relations. (Maybe Blair going will help a bit on our side)
Oh FFS - remember not to put the So******t word in yer posts or they vanish!
Socialist
9 - hey how come you didn’t get censored like what I did?!?!?
if you aren’t as clever as alex try using the figure ‘one’ instead of the final ‘L’. It’s about time ‘Socia1ism’ made a comeback on this site!
Socialist. I can do it too.
What you do is without the spaces is put a in the middle of the word.
Unfortunately what I put in to make it acceptable - the less than and then the more than symbol - does not show up.
6- yes LH2 gave a 51/49 split but the average of all pollsters is 52/48, more stable than first round figures/
Does anybody think this is accurate in the Times newspaper on the UK local elections in May
“Local government pundits predict that Labour will lose a net 600 seats and the Tories will make net gains of 600 or 700 in England, based on recent by-election results.
Related Links
Blair insists there is hope
Experts are divided on the Liberal Democrats. Some are forecasting they will suffer a net loss of up to 150 seats, but others predict net gains.
The BNP, which did well in London last year, is also expected to make gains in Yorkshire, the North East and the West Midlands.”
4- Mike
The thing is the left is much more divided than the right in 2007, just like it was in 2002 : there are 7 left-wing candidates and only 3 right-wing candidates. Even if there is a part of the electorate hesitating between sarkozy and le pen, I don’t think it would be enough to eject sarkozy from the second round.
I still think (but I may be wrong) that bayrou will lose some votes to le pen in the end.
OT Scottish polls-
ICM polls The Scotsman: SNP leading by 5% in the constituency vote and 4% in the regional vote. SSP is at 5%
Yougov for SNP
Constituency vote: SNP 36, Lab 27, LD 16, Con 13
Regional vote: SNP 33, Lab 26, LD 14, Con 14, Green 7, SSP 3, Solidarity 1
16 - that sounds about right!
16 Seems a reasonable summary except I would not have thought BNP will do well in the North East - North West perhaps .
7- All candidates with a decent chance of winning are more pro-EU than most British politicians.
Bayrou is federalist, Royal and Sarkozy are a bit more eurosceptic.
Mike thanks for the betting advice. It is interesting that Bayrou was looking like making it to the second round for a while but has now fallen back.
As noted no one can be sure how Le Pen is going to do, other than he wont win a second round.
JohnLoony, first round is Sun 22 April & second round is Sun 6 May.
FWIW, I think Sarkozy will beat Royal 52-48 in the runoff.
Re 4, Mike “As to the Kinnock comparison from 1992 he was doing well in the polls right up to the point that people started voting.”
Ah, I remember it well
23- we will then have legislative elections (577 constituencies) on 10 and 17 June.
Totally O/T, but went leafletting/canvassing in Swansea West on Monday evening. The odd sniffy remark, but no outright hostility like I had been expecting. Andrew Davies (AM and Minister for Enterprise) was with us and was on good form. Got some good feedback about the 2700 new jobs with Amason.
The most depressing thing was the refrain of “oh, there are elections on are there?” Seems as if we political cranks live in a different wolrd to the rest of the population.
16- Last year projections based on recent by localby election rewsults underestimated Tory gains and overestimated Lib FDEM performance.
Would see Lib Dems definitely going backwards maybe by 200 sets or more.Think Tory gains could total nearer to 1000.Labour bad news all the way around 700 lossses.
Roger H
Re 16, If Labour does lose power in Scotland and loses 700 of its 6,000 UK councillors, that will dent its chances of winning at a GE.
Clearly its Scottish base of MPs will be undermined. In England the further loss of hundreds of councillors will lead to whole new “Labour free” zones.
Also for Ming, will May be a watershed moment for him? A net loss of councillors at a time when Labour is losing so many itself, could lead to pressure to step down.
re 18. Andrea are those figure correct? It looks like leads of 6% and 7% to me.
29. Chris, those are figures of the new Yougov poll commissioned by SNP, not from ICM.
In their report of the ICM poll, the Scotsman (who describes their ICM poll as a blow for SNP!) report this yougov poll too
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=510822007
28 I really can’t see the LDs losing seats - Mark Senior reckons on about 150 LD net gains so I think about 30 is what he really believes.
The tories are not going to gain 1000 seats, if we do anything over 400 it will be a great night, any less than 200 and it will be very poor.
Labour will just lose hundreds and hundreds of seats - there’s certainly no doubt about that but not 700.
31. Are you trying to manage expectations kingbongo?
O/T Iranian hostages. The ex-govt official told Paxo last night
1. The boundary between Iraq and Iran is moveable, as the sands shift so markedly on a regular basis
2. This was recognised in a treaty in 1975 (in more “civilized” times), and a 10 year review was agreed. These reviews have never taken place - Saddam and Khomeini in power by ‘85
3. The initial statement from the Admiral of the Fleet on the spot (Lambert?) was more equivocal about whether the boat had wandered into Iranian waters, on the basis that the boundary is unclear.
4. This position was toughened by number 10 to say that the boat was definitely not in Iranian waters
5. The conclusion was that no 10 had backed the UK into a corner.
None of this has been said before in the media to my knowledge - and I watched Robert Fisk on Sky for 15 minutes yesterday and he made no mention.
Personally I though the Admiral was just hedging his bets and to begin from that negotiating position would have been to guarantee defeat
Interesting that it takes so long for the complexities to filter through
32 RedFlump. More like massage his kingbongo !
34. Ooh I say!
Looking forward to Thursday’s Welsh poll. At long last.
Any by elections for Thursday?
Back on topic. LD’s have too many seats in the south not to lose some - Tim Travers on the radio this morning
34 that’s only on Sunday afternoons Jack!
and no I’m not trying to manage expectations I’m just calling it as I see it - Labour trounced, LDs going nowhere fast Cameron victorious. If we did gain 1000 seats I would be pleasantly flabbergasted but Labour would really have to have collapsed.
Re 33, john, I watched the same program and included some of Craig Murray’s observations in my article.
You missed the other point he made which was that when he was directing ship intercepts they made sure it was outside of disputed/unlcear waters like this to avoid issues like this.
31 My figure for LibDem gains was 120 ( 100 in pb.com comp in January ) and 600 for Conservatives .
Update of the daily IPSOS tracking poll
sarkozy 31.5 (+0.5)
royal 24 (-0.5)
bayrou 19 (=)
le pen 13.5 (+0.5)
2nd round
sarkozy 54 (+0.5) / royal 46 (-0.5)
sarkozy 49 (+1) / bayrou 51 (-1)
update of my poll of polls
sarkozy 28,75 royal 25,25 bayrou 19.25 le pen 13.17
re 33. Tony Blair: “Weapons of mass destruction launched in 15 minutes”, “they were definitely in Iraqi waters”. It comes to something when you reckon that the Iranians version of the story is far more believable.
38 - which article BW?
After having seen the official list of SSP candidates for Holyrood, I’ve decided to root for Mrs Pamela Page.
She has such a soap operish name, however a pb.comer (Julian H) suggested her name sounds more like the one of a por*o star from the 80’s.
I loved this Colin Fox’ line “”I am therefore confident that the SSP will not be approached by any millionaire businesspeople seeking favours from our campaign in the weeks ahead.”
Well, I’m sure he’s right to be confident in that!
Re 41, ChrisA, I am not saying it is, but if people can even think it, then there is no trust.
Re 42 John, this one:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/iran-hostage-affair-what-is-going-on.html
Do detailed figures exist on individual seat swings, 2nd place etc on council seats?
The simple fact is that Labour will go down and in many seats the party that came second will now win. In some places that will be LD in others Con.
Conservatives have also increased in popularity so have their own boost.
LDs will suffer in “traditional” tory wards that they hold with small majorities but gain where they are 2nd place to Labour.
I predict Labour -500, LD + 75 (net of 200 losses & 275 gains), Tory + 375 and finally others + 50.
28 HF said “Also for Ming, will May be a watershed moment for him? A net loss of councillors at a time when Labour is losing so many itself, could lead to pressure to step down.”
I would have thought so, surely LDs must expect nothing less than substantial gains from Labour
43 - I feel that Pamela Page is more appropriate as the internal decoration columnist for the Daily Telgraph
46 I certainly expect a good number of gains from Labour in the seats last fought in 2003 but not that many in the Met districts where the defending councillors were elected in 2004 a very bad year for Labour anyway .
Mike’s analysis seems sound to me (and looking at Cantor’s site I see that *all* bets on Sego have vanished, so you can’t back her there at any odds - influential chap, Mike!). I can’t see a scenario where Sego doesn’t come 2nd - Bayrou seems a busted flush, and if Le Pen surges the diverse left supporters will rally round Sego sufficiently to stop him making it to 2nd.
Once she reaches the final, her odds should improve. The polls are amazingly stable at 52-54 for Sarko, 46-48 for Sego, but that margin is narrow enough for some late event to tip it - in fact it could be Sarko who turns out to be the Kinnock of the election, if people get annoyed by the idea that he’s got it in the bag. He is clearly favourite, but not as certain as some reckon.
What do we know about French polling methods? Do they adjust for past voting, weight for turnout ccertainty, etc.? I’ve read somewhere that they do adjust Le Pen upwards to allow for “shy lepenists”?
39 so not quite as optimistic as I said but bearing in mind the result last year compared to your prediction a net gain of 30-50 would allow you to feel vindicated. Not great though is it? I suppose you can hope to come second in the vote share and outperform GE opinion polls but these sort of figures must concern LD high command; ‘No Breakthrough Here’
Mark Senior what is your overall prediction for LibDems at the council elections
50.”I suppose you can hope to come second in the vote share and outperform GE opinion polls ”
outperform GE opinion polls is a given for the Libdems in local elections, I think
51 see post 39 .
50 I certainly expect vote share to exceed Labour . Can’t speak for LD high command , but I am expecting to see Breakthrough Here in a number of places and consolidation of position in many places where Conservatives are counting their chickens now at the prospect of gains at the next GE .
45.”Do detailed figures exist on individual seat swings, 2nd place etc on council seats?”
We should launch the “Adopt a council” initiative: each pb.comer should take a council and analyze the past results (majorities, second placed parties, swings required)
thanks MS
54 - For those of us too busy (or lazy) to do our own analysis, can’t we just outsource the work to Milanese students…
Re 53, Mark, where do you expect to make gains in the South?
Recent polls seem to show the initial surge of interest in Bayrou slipping away as polling day comes closer and voters return to their natural homes.
We have been doing regular updates of polling trends on our SportInvestor blog and the latest polls show it to be a pretty tight race. Royal is an average pf 4 points behind in the most recent run off polls but the whole dynamic of the race changes come round 2. I think Royal’s price is too big at the moment.
http://sportinvestor.wordpress.com/2007/03/29/french-elections-race-tightens-as-barou-drops-away/
57 Benedict , I expected mixed gains and losses in the South even on the same council . Worthing for example I expect 2 LibDem gains from Conservative and 1 Conservative gain from LibDem .
One to watch on May 3rd is the elected Mayor contest in Bedford. In 2002 it was won by an independent on a turnout of 25% when no other local elections were taking place. This time there is almost a full slate of council seats up and the novelty of having a retired ex-local newspaper boss has rubbed off.
The Lib Dems came second last time, above the Tories in third and Labour in 4th place.
On a turnout of 40% the incumbent might find it hard to hang on and the Lib Dems have been working very hard.
Re 59, Mark, I see. trading places? Presumably that still leaves a Conservative council?
Out of interest how is campaigning going down there? I have no actually seen all that much Lib Dem activity around my way yet.
54. How about Sefton Council. Hung continuously since 1986 (is that some kind of record, btw) with no prospect for overall control. A 3-way split in seats and votes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sefton_Council_election_2006
61 I have seen very little here in Worthing from any party though I do not live in a marginal ward .
60. Mike Smithson, any news of Big Tim Hall?
Nick The pollsters are multiplying the Le Pen score they actually find by three or even four times already! The problem is not people lying to pollsters by saying they’ll vote Sarkozy but those who refuse to answer questions at all. This is all explained in an interesting piece in Le Monde by a political scientist. He once asked his students to poll a small district which typically had a 15% Le Pen following. After one day of polling they hadn’t recorded a single Le Pen vote! However, let’s have a reality check. The ticket to the second round requires a score of over 20%, probably nearer 25%. Le Pen got just under 17% in the first round last time against a much softer target in Chirac than Sarkozy who is taking a far tougher line on illegal immigration and law and order. Le Pen has absolutely no chance of making the second round. Can the Socialist Party use scare tactics to squeeze the other Left candidates? Obviously they are trying but it must be remembered that these Parties are at incredibly low levels already; only Besancenot records a score above 4%. Communist and Green supporters are being urged to ensure that their cause is not devastated by such low scores so Royal is in danger herself of being squeezed a little to allow these Parties to save some face. There remains Bayrou. I am a little less sure that he will be squeezed down into fourth place than Chris but certainly his vote is much softer than the other two big Party candidates. However, his vote is divided roughly evenly between Left and Right so Sarko has as much chance of squeezing him as Sego. Bottom line whoever wins the first round will very likely win the second. If the polls have any worth Sarko is strong favourite to win both. Dare I say it Nick, Sarko is a much more impressive candidate than Neil Kinnock and frankly Sego is a worse candidate than he was. In the second round, however, she is unlikely to be thrashed because the Left has enough electoral strength and also distaste for Sarko to give her a decent minimum. So roughly a 52-48 outcome for Sarko looks very likely at this stage.
64. I meant Big Tall Tim, not Big Tim Hall
49- Nick
Of course all pollsters use techniques to “redress” raw data.The problem is that those methods are secret. They only have to declare those methods to the Polling Commission (an independent public body).
All pollsters use past vote weightings + other techniques to identify “shy lepenists”. tipically raw data show le pen around 5 to 7%. Pollsters often double those ratings to try to measure his true support.
Torbay will be interesting . Roger H the other day forecast Conservatives taking control from LibDems . In fact the council is actually run by the Conservative mayor and a Cabinet of a clique of the 9 Conservative councillors which seems to be unpopular locally . There have recently been 2 defections from ( Note Rik W ) Conservative and Independent but elected as Conservative to LibDem and the council is now LibDem 24 Con 9 Ind 3 .
Looking back at 2003 a time when the Conservatives were not as strong as now and Labour were weakening, the LDs gained 479 but lost 286.
68 excuse my dimness but how can a tory mayor and cabinet run a council where they are in such a minority? Torbay electors seem very fickle, forever chucking out one lot en masse and then reversing their decision next time round.
Re 63, Mark, you may live in a marginal ward, but what about out campaigning?
49 Nick P. I can forsee almost no circumstances with Sego winning this race.
Indeed the record of the pollsters from 2002 and their SOAMES techniques lead me to believe that another shock in Round 1 may be on the cards.
Remember Chirac was polling in the 25% range and finished slightly shy of 20%. Jospin was polling in the 22% range and finished slightly over 16% and of course LePen was polling around 13% and polled a tad under 17%.
The present race show Le Pen around 13/14% and again I believe he is undercounted by 3/4 %. Similarly Sego is IMO flattering to deceive and will struggle along with Bayrou at 20% and less. Sarko is safe for Round 2. Others will poll better than presently indidcated.
Whilst a Sarko/Le Pen Round 2 still appears less likely, I do not rule out the right contesting Round 2 as in 2002 !!
I understand this would be a disaster for those on the left but the nightmare may return !!!!!!
re 70, Kingbongo that does seem a bit odd doesn’t it?
O/T “Mr Brown said the decisions he took, such as the pension tax change, had ensured the long-term strength of the economy which benefited everyone, including pensioners.” ??
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6521305.stm
Re 74, ChrisD, I suspect the pensioners are yet to be convinced!
63. ah worthing a fine seaside town, I have fond memories of visiting my Gran in Findon Valley and playing on the downs…..nice part of the world to live in.
On topic it will be interesting to see what happens in France if it goes to a Sego/Sarkozy run off. I think Sego damaged her credibility early on, looking lightweight and she has been playing catch up ever since. However, one never knows what can happen in an election and if Sarkozy has a slip up it could get more interesting than we previously thought.
66 Andrea. Yes Mike …. any good news on Tim ??
70 A very good question kingbongo , someone with more knowledge of mayoral powers and council constitutions needs to answer that for both of us .
70 Because in a Council with an elected Mayor the Mayor appoints the Cabinet and makes all the decisions, regardless of the make up of the Council.
There are rules for things like budgets where the Mayor has to win the support for a certain proportion, a third I think.
Is the Mayor of Hartlepool (formerly H’Angus the Monkey) up for re-election this year?
The problem for the Lib Dems is that it is quite possible for them to have a good result overall (winning more votes) but still have a big loss of seats.
They could lose 11 district council seats in the town where I live for the same number of votes it will take them to gain one in Birmingham.
80 Bedford, Mansfield and Middlesbrough this year, I believe.
Re 79, Park Town boy, that looks a bit nuts to me.
Re 74, it is the future pensioners that will be hit far worse with final salary schemes unavailable to few in the private sector retiring in the 2020’s and beyond.
Of course the burden from the state sector’s pensions will be even greater in that decade.
79 - Sorry to be dim, but in that case, what’s the point of electing people to be councillors - you may as well have a quango council of the Mayors best mates.
85 None whatsoever. The whole Mayoral system was a New Labour Pipe Dream to enable right-thinking people (such as New Labour hacks) to bypass the horny handed trots and poujadiste landladies that constitute the average unreconstructed Councillors. The first surprise was that it landed them with Ken Livingstone; the next was the Hartlepool result, then Stoke and then Bedford. The elected councillors in those places become ornamental nodding dogs, the Mayor goes on a vanity trip and “democracy” goes even further backwards.
The same is true (to a lesser extent) of the “Leader and Cabinet” system that replaced whole council democracy in almost all of the remaining districts.
The Mayoral system was supposed to increase acountability. In fact it is hugely undemocratic and becoming increasingly unpopular in many places. There petitions in Lewisham and I believe Stoke on Trent to go back to the former system.
Newham, which I know best, has gone from a one party council to a one person Mayor. In fact Sir Robin Wales does appear to share his power around his council, but it is still fundamentally undeomocratic.
Stoke on Trent is an extreme example as teh Council is run by an elected Mayor and an appointed town manager leaving the 60 councillors and many senior officers sidelined. It could be a raeson why the local politics are so fragmented and prone to defection.
BTW, the Conservative Mayor of Torbay was a former Liberal Democrat, in fact he was the one time PPC for the constituency. In local terms the Borough appears to swing each way in successive elections.
Also regarding defections I understand that the Liberal Democrats are losing a councillor in Abingdon, who has applied to stand as a Conservative.
74/84. The final salary scheme is a thing of the past - rightly so. It assumes we keep on earning more as we get older, which is less and less true. We don’t want “bed blocking” managers earning big salaries, and not innovating for example. The planning assumption for most has to be that their late 50’s and early 60’s will see a decline in gross family income (but not alwayys net income). They just have to plan for it - so less foreign holidays / cars / idiotic conspicuous consumption etc and more saving. This will be good for the economy all round
Newly published french poll by IFOP
Sarko 28(n/c)
Sego 23(n/c)
Bayrou21(-2)
Le Pen13.5(+0.5)
Second round
Sarko 54 (+0.5)
Sego 46 (-0.5)
You can go backwards and forwards around the French figures but they seem to be solidifying to
1. Sarko wins, Sego 2nd (left wants to avoid Le Pen coming second)
2. Sarko wins easily
I think you’ll find the Abingdon councillor is a Town Councillor who Lib Dems had understood was disinterested in standing again. But yes, I guess the Town Councillor defection equals our Parish Councillor scalp from the Tories last week.
At district level, Abingdon will be an interesting one to watch. Lots of tight races (sometimes 3 votes in it last time). On the doorstep, it seems to be going well for us (Lib Dems).
Re 91, Richard Huzzy, I am slightly confused as around here Parish councillors don’t stand for a party, they just stand on their own. (And normally get elected unopposed or in alphabetical order, IE the top 10 get in)
You have to remember, in Kent at least, that the Lib Dems are only likely to lose seats where they hav previously ‘out performed.’ Therefore possibly Folkestone and Canterbury, authorities where the Lib Dems have held control, might be vulnerable to a few losses. However, the organisation level at both these authorities is exceptional, full slate of candidates and enough target seats to take control again (unlikely but possible). Authorites that 4 years ago had poor organisation and still have poor organisation might lose a couple of councillors but they only had a couple to start with!
To take a micro example, Ashford, where I am the campaign manager, we are seeking to hold all our own seats, win a few from Labour and maybe even take one of the few Tory seats in the town. Our councillor base is low, 5 out of 43, but we are looking to at least double our numbers.
Uniform swing cannot be applied to the local elections. The whole picture in Kent alone is complete patchwork. I’m expecting the Lib Dems to maintain their seat numbers in Kent certainly and for Labour to lose the little they have in many authorities. I cannot speak for elsewhere but wild predictions of 1000 seat Tory gains are madness.
88 more saving would be good but as we now have a negative savings rate (excluding pension contributions and only 3.7% with them) then I don’t think it’s going to happen anytime soon. As disposable income falls (accelerated by increased taxes) then savings don’t stand a chance.
79 thanks for the explanation - I think a cross party campaign to get rid of this ridiculous system should be started. Can’t blame the Mayor, presumably all the parties stood, but the whole structure seems idiotic. Ditto the leader and cabinet system - all it does is inflate already-large egos and lessen accountability.
Town / parish are frequently contested around here - Witney (Cameron country).
Here the Town Council recently employed a private detective to spy on the newly appointed chief officer / town clerk who was rightly demanding more from the staff. This is an outrageous use of Council funds for such a small body - big front page in ,local paper etc etc. 2 LD’s resign is protest
LD’s will field a full slate against the Conservatives. Labour would if they had 12 members
94 - yes - but the old system isn’t particularly democratic either. Electing three councillors in the same ward by FPTP is three times as disproportional as just electing one (or thereabouts); you get a whole council full of safe seats and end up with unshiftable councils - Private Eye’s ‘rotten boroughs’. Electing mayors at least gives these places a better chance of holding their elected representatives to account, even if it’s all embodied in one man.
Re: 87 - Indeed, Peter, Sir Robin Wales is very much the “face” of Newham Council in the local Press too. After him, there seem to be the various Executive Members. As for how “democratic” it is, the fact remains that Labour won an overwhelming majority last year albeit on a much lower share of the vote.
To be honest, there is very little difference between the role of Sir Robin and that of someone like Nick Skellett at Surrey County Council. Both command huge majorities provided by FPTP.
On the wider issue of LD performance in May, it will be the usual mixture of some good, some bad. The party will be able to point to a number of really good results and will want to avoid mentioning a number of really bad results. Overall prediction - plus or minus 30 seats.
96 - Clearly the answer is STV Council Elections in 3 or 4 member wards.
94. Kingb
Its not the money balance that will alter this - only a culture of fear about what faces people.
Too many are in cloud cukoo land about their futures. There will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth as this is gradually confronted by the odinaryu punter because democracies hide from hard choices
96 That’s not necessarily so. Low turnouts mean that wards that look safe on the surface may not actually be.
There are only four out of 32 London boroughs that have failed to change hands over the past 40 years.
Let me guess - Kensington, Westminster, West Ham, and somewhere out north east
(100 - Sean, is that really “change hands”, or does that include “lose control to NOC”?)
96 - probably agree with you - if we’re electing in three member constituencies anyway, it seems silly not to do it by STV.
Re: 100 - My guesses would be Kensington & Chelsea, Newham, Westminster and Barking & Dagenham.
What’s the prize ?
Re 95 John “LD’s will field a full slate against the Conservatives. Labour would if they had 12 members”
89- this IFOP poll was pubmished today but revealed by press agencies last friday.
Next poll (excluding the daily Ipsos) will be BVA on thursday.
Chris from Paris Felicitations on the new world train record!
Re 92 - Tends to depend on the size of the council, I suspect. Most parish councils, particularly in rural areas, have populations of a few hundred and are completely non-party political. At the time of local government reorganisation in 1974, however, previous Urban District and Borough Councils which were being abolished were allowed to apply to become parish councils, and these can cover areas of up to 10 - 20,000 people, and quite often have party candidates in elections.
102 I’d have to think about that. I think Southwark has always been either Labour or NOC. Barnet has always been either Conservative or NOC.
104 Correct. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barking & Dagenham change hands in 2010 though.
Re 108, Jeremy, I see. Many thanks for that!
.07 Yes agreed, some years ago the Brits would have taken umbrage at this and tried to do better, ala Germany and the Flying Scotsmen record.
That should be Flying ScotsMAN!
104 - Absolutely correct. Although they have all recorded good turn outs on various occasions.
K&C is probably the consistent, with no seats changing hands at all for the best part of 20 years.
Newham was far less of a one party state before 1986, it split 30-30 in 1968 (Lab, 30, Ratepayers 23, Con 6, Lib 1)
In Barking and Dagenham for decades only Longbridge and Chadwell Heath broke the Labour hegemony, and both of those wards are far more like Ilford which they border. Again in 1968, Labour won all but Abbey (Con) Chadwell Heath (Res), Longbridge (Con) and Village (Con) Labour did not lose wards on Becontree (or come close to losing wards on Becontree) until 2006.
K&C Labour held, except for 1968 the South Stanley ward in Chelsea for decades on both the new Borough and the old Met Borough.
Now called Cremorne it has moved beyond their grasp.
In Kensington Labour ceratinly held Golborne and St Charles and usually Norland, throughout the post war era. They retained Golborne even in 1968. They came nowhere close in winning anything else in the Borough.
My favourite Westminsterism is that in 1945 the Communists won seats on the council - Covent Garden ward.
Marylebone had two strong Labour wards (Bell Street and Church Street). The Labour councillor for Church Street was, again for several years, Lady Lucan. Paddington was Labour 1945-49 and had considerable Labour strength.
109 surely the BNP aren’t doing THAT well?
92 - Benedict: as others have said, it varies. Within Oxfordshire, there’s a mix of those where it is usual to stand by party and those where it’s all kept non-partisan.
113 Lady Lucan!? Was that Mother of, or Wife of, the Moustachioed Lord?
o/t some strong campaigning words from menzies - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6520975.stm
18 et al The online Scotsman report on the ICM Scottish poll is very confusing quoting in fact figures from a private SNP/Yougov poll but only the gap between SNP and Labour on the ICM poll .
The full ICM % figures seem to be :-
FPTP SNP 32 Lab 27 LibDem 19 Con 13 SSP/Sol 5 Oth 4
List SNP 31 Lab 27 LibDem 17 Con 12 Others ??
There does seem to be a discrepancy in LibDem and to a lesser extent Con support between ICM/Yougov and TNS Sys 3/Progressive polls . On the 2003 results we should perhaps put more faith in the former pollsters .
112. World Steam Locomotive Speed Record is actually held by ‘Mallard’
. . .I’ll get my anorak . . .
.19 Yes but the Flying Scotsman was specifically rigged to better a record the Germans were trying to set.
119 I saw “Mallard” when it came to Blackpool on a special train in I think 1963 . The same day I saw Stanley Matthews play one of his last games for Blackpool vs Chelsea . Blackpoll won 4-0 and Stan scored .
Double anorak and age showing .
117: ’some strong campaigning words from menzies’
That from a man who hasn’t rejected Labour.
116 - It was the mother of the missing moustache.
123 Extraordinary! Thanks for that. Presumably, he must have thought of her as a bit of a Bolshevist - he harboured some fairly right wing views, IIRC.
124 Well she did send him to Eton (pace Roger). I am told that she was an incredibly popular and hard working councillor, well regarded to this day.
re 100. But what about wards. My ward gievs no opportunities for anyone other than Lab to contribute towards local politics and never will - one reason perhaps for poor turnout.
I’m happy to analyse the Birmingham wards.
Mark the figures as you say are very confusing. What is however ridiculous is the treatment of The Scotsman of their own poll. It says the poll is ’still not good news for Labour’ despite recording an atrocious 27% in both constituency and regional lists for the Party. As you say the difference between the Populus and ICM polls is the better performance of the LDs and others in the latter, not any difference in the very low figure for Labour. In practice if Labour beat the SNP by one seat they will spin it as the greatest defensive victory since Alem Halfa; if they lose by one seat it will be an historic defeat whichever you look at it.
127.”atrocious 27% in both constituency and regional lists for the Party”
27% in the regional lists is not atrocious for Labour (they were at 29.3% in 2003)
Andrea it was pretty dreadful in 2003 and it’s slightly more dreadful in 2007!
Have there been any ‘England only’ polls or are any regional polls expected? Lots of Scottish attention (understandable, there should be a big story there) but do we have any figures from fellow posters? Perhaps you’ve had your regional broadcaster conduct a poll recently.
It would help us to get a better understanding of the situation. Labour set to lose 800 seats and Tories set to win 1000 are way off I think.
127 I did not actually mention Populus as they have only ever done the 1 Scottish poll but the figures are intermediate between ICM and TNS Sys 3 . I would partly agree with Andrea that Labour at 27 in the list is not atrocious but with the lesser threat from SSP this time they should be higher on that basis only .
Re 130, Chris Took, I am a bit unlcear about who controls your local council. You implied there were very few Conservatives on it.
83 - I didn’t say I agreed with it!
85 - I didn’t say I agreed with it!
92 - In Oxfordshire most of the Town Councils have party slates, along with Independents in some of them. Most of the Parish Councils do not have party candidates although one or two of the larger ones do.
87 - A Lib Dem Town Councillor in Abingdon ‘crossed the floor’ to join the Tories having not been reselected by the Lib Dems. I understand he has also moved out of Abingdon.
132 I am sure Chris will correct me if I am wrong but the Conservatives whilst controlling the Council do not have many councillors in the town of Ashford itelf .
131.” I would partly agree with Andrea that Labour at 27 in the list is not atrocious but with the lesser threat from SSP this time they should be higher on that basis only”
Mark, but ICM give SSP 5% (quite high for recent standard and not so down compared to 2003) and I think SSP took many votes away from SNP too last time (and it’s that vote that is going away from them)
107- Thanks. the record itself is barely worth more than a photo-op, because 574 km/h will never be the working speed (limited to around 300 km/h). But the Eastern line will be a big change for the whole East of France : Strasbourg at 2h20min of Paris is unbelievable.
I used to study there (ENA) and the 4h30 of the old train was unbearable !
Andrea(s) Labour got 39.5% in losing the 1992 GE in Scotland. Historically it has been an absolute fortress. These are not just a series of local elctions; it is a GE for Scotland. Obviously adjectives are our own choice but IMHO 27% would be an atrocious score which isn’t remotely offset by the dismal 29.4% last time. I doubt even the wretched McConnell will be able to spin it otherwise if that turns out to be the score. I would say the same about 27% of the vote in England for the Tories a depth which they’ve probably reached at some time in the past.
132,137
Mark is right. Ashford is a curious place, a doughnut of rural seats making up two thirds of the district boundary (all Conservatives bar 1 Lib Dem) and a town centre (growing significantly) which is Lib/Lab/Ind in it’s division. There is a single Tory in the town.
Re 141, Chris, how do you think it will go in May? Are the Conservatives working the ground in the town?
140.”Labour got 39.5% in losing the 1992 GE in Scotland”
We’re talking about Scottish Parliament elections, not GEs. The dynamics are different.
Re: 113 - Thanks for the information on Newham. It shows how bad 1968 was for Labour in London compared with 2006. Some thought Respect had a chance of breaking the Labour stranglehold but while they performed well in some wards, they got nowhere near what the 1968 Ratepayers achieved.
Also interesting to note there were 6 Tories and a Liberal back then but neither party got close to electing a councillor last year.
The “new” factor in Newham politics is the Christian People’s Alliance, led by Alan Craig which got six councillors elected in Canning Town. We’ve talked about him and his Party before on here but they are a serious force in that part of the Borough but not elsewhere (they didn’t contest the ward in which Mrs Stodge and I reside).
144 - What is the politics of the CPA? Is it traditional tory ‘Daily Mail’ style Christianity, or a charing, sharing, liberal version?
144 - Either 1995 or 1968 is the worst year that any governing party has ever had in a set of local elections.
1968 saw the Conservatives win big overall majorities in Hackney and Islington (they were completely wiped out in 1971) as well as in boroughs like Brent, Haringey, Greenwich and Lewisham. Labour also failed to win a single seat in Birmingham in that year.
145 Socially conservative, and very left wing economically.
147 I should clarify, socially conservative on issues like abortion and homosexuality. They’re not socially conservative on immigration.
148. “I should clarify, socially conservative on issues like abortion and homosexuality”
so simply homophobic?
142. My feeling is Labour will be down to a complete rump, 1 or 2 councillors, the independent group will be down to 2 each (there are 2 independent groups - independent of each other) whilst the Lib Dems and the Conservatives might share the spoils.
Wednesday will be interesting, nominations for the 43 seats close. The Lib Dems have only ever stood 33 candidates at the most. This time we should have a full slate against the Conservatives (who usually have a full slate). There are many rumours from ex Labour members who have joined us that Labour will have less than 20 candidates. Personally I think they will get at least the half they need to ‘claim’ they could run the council.
Predictions at this stage, Con 26 Lib 11 Independent 4 Labour 2
147, 148 - Thanks, think I can start to see why they are popular in some areas of Newham in that case, particularly if well organised.
149 Andrea. When exactly did Pamela appear on page 4 of “The Sun” ?
150 Chris Took has raised an interesting point - I trust someone is going to look out for surprising ommissions from the Candidates Lists. Do the main partis really have the manpower these days to field full slates of candidates? How many candidates will only be “paper candidates”? Will anyone get cold feet at the last minute and drop out? Will there be any attempts at sabotage by disgruntled members or activists?
I think we should be told…..
151 Yes, they appeal very strongly to Christians from ethnic minority groups.
152. Jack, how insolent you’re!
Pamela is a proud so*alist…
153. The number of candidates should give a good indication of how well each party thinks it will do. We do have a few ‘paper’ candidates but they are only so because the seats they are standing in have results from 4 years ago of
Electorate 2000
Turnout 50%
Con 730
Lib 270
If we did not stand in some of the Ashford rural wards then they would be won uncontested. As campaign manager in Ashford I can’t allow that to happen even when I know there is not a cats chance in hell of us winning the seat. People should have the choice of at least 2 candidates.
Seeing the earlier discussion about Torbay, when I lived there back in the 50/60’s before Torbay existed as a single political entity: Torquay,Paignton,Brixham it was dominated by the Tory Party. When Torbay was created in 1966? it became known as Torybay, so total was the Tories domination. The fact that other parties even get a lookin, shows how much things have changed.
156 Presumably you mean, “People should have the choice of at least 2 candidates, one of whom should be a Lib Dem”!
157 Generally speaking, coastal resorts have been some of the worst-performing areas for the Conservatives over the past 30 years.
156.” People should have the choice of at least 2 candidates. ”
I know that it can be seen as “weird”, but in Italy we hold elections even with just 1 candidate standing. If there’s just 1 candidate, the election takes place anyway and the turnout should be at least 50% or the election won’t be considered valid.
158. It doesn’t matter whether they are a Lib Dem or not. Our party is large enough in Ashford so that yes one of the electorate’s choices will be Lib Dem. Uncontested seats though annoy me though because a councillor (and I am one) should face the scrutiny of the ballot box. 5k per annum with no election is a scandal.
159. Sean is right - one of the only swings to Labour in 2005 was Dorset South (we all know the local matters there, but still.)
159 Sean Fear. I think you’ll find is caused by Tory/Deckchair syndrome …… sitting in the sun too long !!
Re 150, Chris Took, Many thanks!
So the Conservatives are strong enough to field a full slate as are the Liberal Democrats?
How is the mood on the ground? As in are people noticing there is a campaign going on?
Re 153, Augustus, I am waiting with baited breath to here who is and is not on the slate this time around in my area.
That said I am not sure how easy it is to tell a paper candidate from real ones who lose heart early.
I think that a lot of people just do not realise how much like hard work it is getting elected!
O/T Scottish Elections
Our friends at William Hill are offering a generous 5/4 against the SNP being the largest party in Scotland after the May elections. The more cautious punters might like to then hedge it with the 6/5 against Labour with Paddy Power. If my sums are right, that is betting to 90% in what is effectively a two horse race. If you stake £100 on both, you stand to win either £20 (Labour win) or £25 (SNP win). Of course you stand to lose £200 if anybody else wins but who realistically thinks that is going to happen?
Personally I wouldn’t bother with the hedge, although it’s virtually an arbitrage. The 5/4 seems to me great value for the team that heads the polls and I’d just stick with that.
Hat tip to another well-known contributor for pointing out this act of generosity from the bookmaking fraternity.
Good luck and I hope you all get plenty on. (Suggestion - do the Paddy Power half first. They are the more likely to restrict your stake.)
Re 156, Chris, Good man, We likes a fight
Actually you are right. Uncontested elections are not for anyone.
164, Benedict, the mood on the ground is apathetic. I have seen no leaflets other than ours (actually that’s a fib, I did see an independent leaflet in 2 wards) and certainly no canvassing.
That said, who knows what is happening telephone cnavassing wise? I fully expect tomorrow to see 40+ Conservative candidates and 40+ Lib Dem candidates. The Labour figure will be the most interesting.
The local paper is gunning for the Conservative council leader (not sure why) very negative editorials, critical of recent decisions etc. Will that dislodge him from his seat? Highly unlikely, although his seat of one of only 2 rural target wards that we have.
I’ll update you next week!
Chris
**** JNN FREE MONEY ALERT **** JNN FREE MONEY ALERT **** JNN FREE MONEY ALERT
ACT QWIK
Scottish Elections.
Most Seats :
Lab 11/8 PaddyPower .. SNP Evens Ladbrokes.
Discount LibDems and Tories
Re 168, Chris, when do you get to officialy hear how many are standing?
167 et al. It’ll be interesting to see how many councillors are returned unopposed. In 2003, the Conservatives fielded c. 2,000 more candidates than either Labour or the Lib Dems, and had scores returned unopposed, either with no opposition, or without a full slate of opponents in a particular ward (eg 3 Conservatives fighting 1 Labour and 1 Independent).
IIRC several councils had already “elected” Conservative overall majorities as soon as nominations closed. The situation will probably be even worse this year.
165 There are also a lot of fibs told by some party organisers, such as “Don’t worry, old boy, you haven’t got a chance of winning in Gas Works Ward, but just be a candidate for the good of the Party and we will let you off the next Jumble Sale.” Lo and behold, the candidate (who thinks he is a paper candidate) suddenly discovers that all his pals from the pub, bowls club and church think he is a good egg and want to vote for him, leaving him with the predicament of standing down just before nominations or campaigning to lose.
When I last stood, many years ago, my opponent was my accountant, a good friend who lived around the corner from me. I voted for him, because I could not afford the time off if I won - and he voted for me for the same reason! Fortunately, we lived in an area of three party politics, and so we were both happy.
162.”one of the only swings to Labour in 2005 was Dorset South (we all know the local matters there, but still”
With the useless candidate the tory had…
Btw, there were 29 seats where Labour was returned in 2005 with an increased majority (well, the 18th was a 0.1% increase in its majority…). In many cases it was due to the second placed party dropping more than Labour
169 Jack W - You have been well and truly scooped! LOL
Hills have SNP at 5/4, as per my post 166. Smarten your act up, Sir!
166 PtP. Beaten to it !!!!!!!
Shame you pooch isn’t as qwik !!!!!!!
173 He proved that not all publicity is good publicity.
169. Jack, whare the odds
for Pamela’s win?
170. Nominations close tomorrow so I will know how many forms are submitted by noon tomorrow. However, the returning officer takes a week to check and publish (and deal with any withdrawls) so officially the figure will not be known for a week.
Does anyone know what happens when nobody stands? Sean says a great number were elected unopposed last time out. What happens when the unopposed candidate withdraws (for good reasons such as those pointed out by Augustus Carp)
169 etc Paddy Power now have both Lab and SNP at 5/6
(although you could still get 11/10 on McConnell first minister)
Re 171, Sean, a whole council elected unopposed? Not only does that free up troops for the uncontested wards but can’t please the punters!
One of the areas in which I take a personal interest in Penwith, in the far west of Cornwall. I’ve often gone down there to work in the week of polling and it’s a world away from the urban and suburban campaigning that I normally get involved with.
This year, twelve seats are being contested. Of these, four are single-member wards, which last voted in 2004 when the whole District Council was re-elected on new boundaries.
The four wards are Goldsithney, Madron & Zennor, Marazion & Perranuthnoe and St Erth & St Hillary. Each has an electorate of around 1,500 or so. In 2004, two were Independent; one was Conservative and one Liberal Democrat.
The most likely change is for Goldsithney to be a Conservative gain from the Liberal Democrats.
The remaining eight contests are in multi-member wards so I will need to say who is contesting to gauge how they might go. Initial thoughts are that the Conservatives will hold Lelant & Carbis Bay, Penzance South and St Buryan while the Liberal Democrats will hold St Ives North and probably Hayle South.
Penwith is, however, one of the last bastions of Independent Councillors and they are notoriously hard to shift once elected.
re 172 Augustus,
Re 178, Chris I assumed there was a byelection.
In 2003 Bolsover had Labour 18 out 37 seats even before the election day. So they needed just 1 seat to win on election day to get a majority.
178. I guess it’s an automatic by-election…
Re coastal resorts. Have the elderly Tory voters who colonised these locations simply….er… died?
183. Presumably post the official election period. Don’t think it will happen in Ashford (!) but that really would be one for die hard politicos.
175 Jack, if the pooch were as quick as me, he’d be favorite for the Greyhound Derby, the Epsom Derby and the Boat Race. LOL!
177 Andrea. Hopefully there’ll be some excellent seat odds shortly !!
And some speciality bets :
Pamela to show her assets on page 4 …… 50/1
Sheridan and Goldie in luv tryst !! …… 100/1
Nichol Stephen to sound interesting …. 1000/1
Salmond to defect to Reading Conservatives ….4/6 .. with Rik.
Benedict to start a MacBlog …. Evens.
Jack W to exceed his Lib Dem canvasser spit roasting tally ! … 1/10 favourite
179 Smart work, Paul. Backing McC must be as good as backing Labour, although I still think best bet is to take the 5/4 from Hills and stick with it.
166 - I’d definitely hedge any bet on the SNP being the largest party in Scotland.
Their record of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory is second to none (and I write as a Lib Dem
) and the electoral system is against them. They are not far enough ahead in the polls (and I suspect they will fall back as polling day comes) to make the big breakthrough they need to win more than a handful of seats in west central Scotland. And by winning a few fptp seats they are likely to lose some of their ‘top up’ MPs.
An SNP poll lead is bad news for the Tories too whose main chance of gains comes from them. I suspect these polls means the Nats are doing well in the north and east. It probably means that for once we’ll see some Lib Dem v Nat battles in places like Gordon, Aberdeen Central and Inverness. But as both parties are on the up these will interesting battles but I’d back the Lib Dems on the ground organisation over the Nats, who as usual are probably spreading themselves too thinly going for the ‘big prize’.
188 What odds on Ian Paisley and the Pope having an emancipal booze-up?:lol:
“145 Socially conservative, and very left wing economically. ”
That sounds like my worst nightmare party!
190. Dan “And by winning a few fptp seats they are likely to lose some of their ‘top up’ MPs”
If the polls are accurate and they will have a 10%+ jump in the list vote (probably thanks to SSP auto-destruction), they can keep many of their “top up” MSPs as the increase % can make up for FPTP gains
188. Jack, disappointed that you can’t offer anything on Pamela’s chances of doing better than the Greens in West of Scotland.
188. Do you know what ’spit-roasting’ means these days? Wouldn’t you need a friend to help?
171 and 184, I know that Fenland and Tynedale had already elected Conservative councils as soon as nominations closed, and I think there were about 6 others. Derwentside had reelected Labour as soon as nominations closed.
Chris -
“Therefore possibly Folkestone and Canterbury, authorities where the Lib Dems have held control, might be vulnerable to a few losses. However, the organisation level at both these authorities is exceptional, full slate of candidates and enough target seats to take control again”
What’s happening with People First in Folkestone? Are they putting up candidates? (Several years ago the Lib Dem group on Shepway council split, with the former Lib Dem council leader forming a new group called People First. I think they are now in a coalition with the local Tories, with their former leader in the cabinet). They contested the KCC elections, are they running separately this time, or just fading away?
“I’m expecting the Lib Dems to maintain their seat numbers in Kent”
I’m hoping that the Lib Dems maintain their seat numbers in Dartford
‘Socially conservative and very left-wing economically’ ,within reason has a certain resonance to my political palate
187/191 PtP/Patrick.
190 Dan. I’d agree on hedging the SNP as historically their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is legendary. However I would say these elections do have a somewhat different feel to them.
My (whisky and) water says SNP for top spot but much closer than predicated ….. and the electoral maths very tight for an SNP/LibDem coalition. Greens required ?? …. well they are supposed to be good for you. Yuk !
France - new IFOP poll
new IFOP-Paris Match poll (the paper will be published on thursady, their poll is only every 2 weeks)
Sarkozy 27.5 (-0.5)
Royal 23 (=)
Bayrou 20 (-1)
Le Pen 14 (+0.5)
2nd round
sarkozy 52 / royal 48
Chris @ 178: “Does anyone know what happens when nobody stands? Sean says a great number were elected unopposed last time out. What happens when the unopposed candidate withdraws (for good reasons such as those pointed out by Augustus Carp)”
I found one ward with no candidates when I was collecting results for the notional results on the new boundaries. Eden Council, up in Cumbria, had at least one ward where no one stood at all.
Presumably it just stays vacant until two local electors request a by-election.
194 ColinW. You should be so lucky.
I assure you the magnificence of my roasting will make your crackling spit and your bar charts water !!
I believe there were 3 wards in 2003 which had no nominations at all ( one was in Eden DC Kirkby Stephen can’t recall the other 2 ) . At the subsequent (by)election there were then 3 candidates .
Andrea 160 - We have the same situation in an organisation here that makes Opus Deii look transparent - the Labour Party are going to have a six week election with ony one candidate - the winner to be Prime Minister.
At the same time there will be a election for a completely non-job for deputy leader of the party with 4 or more candidates. This will give the various factions the chance to scratch each others eyes out.
189 PtP. The Hills 5/4 on the SNP is still available.
Update of my poll of polls
sarkozy 28,67 royal 25,25 bayrou 19,08 le pen 13.25
Bayrou is now on average nearer from le pen than from royal
Re - SNP & Scotsman Poll
Taken from Scotsman Comment
“Here we have a perfect example of its core politics. 10 national opinion polls from different organisations asking differing questions of different samples of the population indicate a regular and rising trend of support for the Scottish National Party and then, out of the blue, comes a poll suggesting that this may not be wholly accurate. Political pundits usually recognise that polls suggest trends rather than absolute facts. That being so perhaps it would be wise to pause before grabbing gratefully at a single poll that confirms your own stolid Unionism.”
Grab some free money on the SNP - still available on betfair.
204 To avoid confusion that’s 5/4 against the SNP !
205- i forgot the second round average :
sarkozy 52.00 / royal 48.00
Re Scottish elections.
Well spotted Ptp and Jack W. I’ve taken the 5/4 SNP with Hills and following Dan and Jack W’s cautious advice, I’ve also backed Labour at 11/10 with Skybet.
Easiest £20-£50 I’ve ever made. Beats working!
166 et al. Sensational value, thanks!
207 This is one of the best bets to roll along on PB.com for a while, Jack. I’ve had four hundred to win five hundred and I don’t feel much like laying it all off. Like you, I just have that feeling that the SNP will pull it off and at such generous odds I can afford to wait a bit and see how events unfold.
Save some spit roast for me and we’ll wash it down with some finest malt - but not too much water.
Btw, PB.com should vote WillHill bookmaker of the year. Not only do they offer some attractive political odds, they take decent amounts. Respect.
211 - I don’t think alerting them would be the most sensible tactic, Peter
209/210 stjohn/Aaron. Your welcome.
Indeed, unless the respective leaders of the SNP and Labour are exposed as closet Englishman with a propensity for rogering scouts and drinking American “whiskey” ….. and probably in that order, then the likelyhood of the Scottish Tories and Lib Dems romping to victory are as probable as Benedict not plugging his blog this decade !! ….. Exactly.
Re 213, JackW, you mean like this:
Hey visit my blog it’s great!
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Re my 214, Should have added
211 PtP. I never dilute the nectar of the gods !!
214 Benedict. There you go …. that’s the Scottish Tories and Lib Dems buggered !! …. and bold about it too !!
OT. Obama and his fundraising history causing concern for Hilary :
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/03/us/politics/03obama.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
George Howarth and Christine Russell back Hazel4Deputy
re: Christine Russell. I notice the LibDems coming up fast on the rails in Chester in 2005. What are their chances? Is it a Roman town thing (Winchester, Colchester, Bath, …Chester?)
Does anyone know if there is a limit for how much on SNP with Will Hill? Thanks in advance.
221 Well they took £400 from me Will, which is as far as I wanted to go.
218 That’s a significant development, Jack. I thought the Obama bandwagon was slowing up, but evidently not.
Re 217 JackW
Back on thread and back to our old frien Will Hill………
Sarko available at 4/6. Get on!
221 Will L. There are varying factors here :
Some bookies set an event limit on a wager. Others assess each bet individually. Again there may be differences between on-line and personal betting. To complcate further the bookie may strike a wager at different rates .. eg £200 @ Evens and £100 @ 6/5 and so on.
Further a first time account holder may attract a decent punt whereas a “face” might attract all sorts of response.
Spread betting is of course a whole different ball game !
Give Hills a go …. they usually are pretty good.
Also … shameless plug …. buy Mikes upcoming bestseller !
226 “Buy Mikes upcoming bestseller !”
Definitely! But try to get an unsigned copy. Cheaper than the signed ones.
223 PtP. If Obama is roughly matching Hilary $4$ then this contest will go a long way, that is IMO to Obama’s advantage.
227 PtP. Naughty …
Yes Jack. I still think she we win, but it could be very close.
Re 227, Peter I thought the unsigned ones were more?
229 PtP. Are you part of Mike’s SEED (skirts equals electoral destiny) camp ??
I’ve thought about it …. put on my kilt and make a run for the US Presidency.
For the love of all that’s unholy, where is the French thread? I have just ploughed back through hundreds of comments about byelections in Ashford and the mayor of Newham. ‘Paris Chris’, what do you say we set up a French election blog?
230 Benedict, that’s disgraceful! And after he put a link to your blog up as well! Tut tut.
232 Tim - The only part of the French thread you need is post 225. Take heed and enjoy.
230 Benedict. I’m waiting for a Sainsbury “Buy One Get One Free Offer” on Mike’s book. Mrs Jack gets the second copy for Christmas !!
……… Ouch .. 
231 Definitely not, O Kilted One, but I’m not sure I regard Hillary as a lay. Nor you for that matter.
235 - Surely the sensible offer would be ‘Buy Mike Smithson’s book, get Sean Thomas’s free’ - That’d confuse the Amazons ‘people that bought this book also bought…’
Re 237, Lennon,
Re 233, Peter
re 235 JackW are you sure you can’t make the bash?
231. Jack W. A H Matlock is also running for the US presidency, from a thread many many moons ago. For this site to have produced two presidential candidates is quite something. Wishing you both success.
This will be Royal & Sarkozy unless something comes out of the clouds.
I already have a position on Sarkozy as the winner from some time back and hoped to get on Royal whilst she was having a crappy time because I was sure the polls would narrow at some point. I managed to resist the Bayrou tractor but still havent taken a position on Royal because I havent been paying enough attention.
I’m to take a stab and suggest Le Pen will not get near a repeat performance previously. I think his moment has gone.
Looks like the SNP bonanza is gone. Will Hill withdrawn 2.25
Sarkozy also withdrawn by Will Hill
Completely O/T - Cricket World Cup Rules:
Assuming that it continues to rain in Guyana so that there is no more play today. We have tommorow as a ’spare’ day, but do they:
a) Completely restart the match
b) Continue where play was abandoned (ie at the moment it’s at 47 overs each, with Ireland having faced 11) and use Duckworth-Lewis to calculate the second teams notional total as normal.
c) Continue as currently, but extend back up to 50 overs a side(and presumably use D-L again in reverse to account for the fact that for a portion of today Ireland thought they were facing only 47 overs)
d) Something else entirely. (This is the ICC remember)
240 Sounds like you’ve got a grade A position there, O Wise One From Over The Water. Sit tight and wait to collect.
241/2 The may surely sack the YOP kid in charge of the Politics portfolio soon. PB must be cleaning them out single-handedly.
238 Benedict. I’m in hospital a few days prior and hopefully up to Scotland for a few weeks R&R after, that will if I’m a good lad take in the Perth Racing Festival.
I’ll be there at the party in spirit though.
…………………
239 stjohn. Many thanks …. so far I’m outspending young Matlock by £5.3s.6d to £4.19s.4d ! …. it was my full page ad in YCJ Monthly that pushed me over the £5 spend …… YCJ Monthly - Yankee Centenarian Jacobites.
I feel I’ve got Giulianni and Clinton on the run !!
241,242 Will L — Hills always suspend their political markets overnight. Have another look in the morning.
243, Lennon.
As I understand it, “b”.
The matches do not get restarted if they turn into Two Day Internationals but continue from where they left off. they never re-extend either (because if rain comes on day 2, you could have matches shortening, lengthening and shortening again, repeatedly).
If they think they can get another 29 overs in today, they’ll go for a result today, shortening down to 20 overs each if necessary. If they can’t, it’ll continue tomorrow, with 47 overs each (so another 36 overs for Ireland to face, then 47 overs for SA to face), shortening if necessary due to weather.
If they can’t get the South African innings to get past 20 overs tomorrow, no result (1 point each)
248 - Thanks Andy, that was my assumption, but I was curious because you could have the situation where they come back later today thinking they can get 29 overs in, Ireland then bat for say 5 overs when the rest of the day is then lost to rain. If tommorow is then perfectly clear and sunny you have the odd situation of playing for only a couple of hours when you have plenty of time to play for longer. (I hope that makes some kinda sense)
I note that these days each Labour announcement of “good news” is greeted with a cynical “can we believe it” response in the media. Today Hewitt announces that by 2009 every mother can choose where they give birth. Immediately the midwives representatives respond with “not enough midwives” and “where is the extra cash”? ITV opened their 630pm news with “Labour pains” as the headline.
I cant be sure but at the back of my mind I thought we heard “mothers can choose” promises a few years ago under a previous Health Secy. Or have I endured too many of these nuLab PR stunts?
The next news story was Brown defending his actions on pensions… He looked tired, sullen and hardly an inspiring Leader.
That news story was followed by “Labour looking likely to lose Scottish elections”..
It does feel more like 1996/7 in the dog days of the Major administration when the Govt could do nothing right than Thatcher’s demise in 1990 when the problem was just her.
250 This is true, HF, but there are differences. There is no ideological split in the Labour Party as there was in Major’s Conservative Party. Nor are the attempts to shift the Leader quite the same. Blair has agreed to go. Major made no such pact with ‘the bas*tards’.
I’m not saying all is well on Planet Labour. Nor will Brown necessarily give them a great boost, if indeed any. It’s just that it’s easy to see too many similarities, if that’s what you are looking for.
I have just completed the Brand Index Survey so my views will be in the totals this week .
Re 251, well judging by the rebellions these are bigger than Major had the difference being that Blair has a bigger majority to work with. Most of the rebellions are lead by the left of the Labour party. I would suggest that the ideological splits in Labour are just as deep as Major’s admin.
As to the attempts to shift Blair we had that last year and the various factions like the left leaning Campaign for Labour Party Democracy even have representatives on the NEC and frequently called for Blair to go.
Re 246,JackW, good luck!
Re 250, HF, Choice for mothers? Round these here parts you get the nearest maternity unit with a bed, and of your lucky it is less than 45 minutes drive away!
252 I trust, Mark, that you did your duty to your fellow PBers and scored in favour of our recommended bets?
‘I cant be sure but at the back of my mind I thought we heard “mothers can choose” promises a few years ago under a previous Health Secy. Or have I endured too many of these nuLab PR stunts?’
Just another stunt or the same old stuff repeated,take your pick,just like the budget the same old figures recycled and double if not triple counted.
253 HF
The very point I was trying to make is that the ’splits’, if you can call them that, in the Labour Party do not appear to be wholly or mainly ideological in nature.
As for the calls for Blair to go (and to stay!), they appear born of a unique situation in which the Leader has announced he will go without needing to or being specific as to timing.
255 I thought you lived near to the Princess Royal Haywards Heath. A maternity unit on your doorstep. Redhill and Brighton are also both less than 45 minutes away. It’s not quite as bad you say. There is still no need to exagerate it still could be much better IMO!
BTW my wife is currently “up the duff” and were booked into Redhill. It’s a bit of a trek to Redhill from Horsham. That said they’re pretty good when you get there and have a great SCBU if all goes tits up. Swings and roundabouts.
I just got in from work, and wrestling with the M25 Car Park and I’ve been catching up with the thread(s) as much as possible.
In case it hasn’t been said before, I would like to thank Chris(from Paris) for his contributions on the French elections.
It’s great having a man on the spot, and especially someone who tries to play far with all sides.
260. “play far” should of course be “play fair”
(Don’t know if that is down to tiredness, or something Freudian)
Re 259, Yes there is a maternity unit “on the doorstep” when it is open and accepting new patients. Quite a few times it is not which means a trip to wherever has a bed like in one recent case Eastbourne after being turned down by Brighton, Worthing and Redhill because this government is so useless that it can’t get it right. Furthermore due to catastrophic incompetence it looks like the PRH unit may be under threat as well. (Great shiny new hospital to be shut down in favour of Brighton?)
Good luck with Redhill. I hope they have a place for you when the time comes or else it is some time on the phone trying to find out where there is a place.
Oh, and Jonathan if you look on my blog under the label NHS you get to see how much traveling around sick people in these here parts have to do to get treatment.
Right I am off to make engines. See ya all later!
Interesting case studies of the effect on pensions of Gordon’s abolition of ACT in Torygraph and Times today.
For all the bravado of its headlines, the Times had measured analysis, and cases of people who typically had lost about 10% of their pension, or were having to pay 15% more in.
The Torygraph had horrendous, but nonetheless true stories of people who had lost almost everything. The impression given was that those who had lost, say 70-90% of their pension could blame it all on Gordon’s raid, and the Chancellor had taxed this amount, and was a conman.
The effect of Gordon’s raid is to reduce yield by about 0.5% a year. It was a bad decision, but this government, and every other for the last 30 years has done just as much and more to shaft pensions.
That said, Gordon’s raid was, in hindsight, supremely misjudged and may well be his downfall.
Jonathan you seem to doubt Benedict on his 45 minute claim.
It seems no one believes you any longer in this country if you make a 45 minute statement.
266. stjohn
- Especially when you are talking about WMD’s
(Women’s Maternity Departments)
266 Yes 45 mins is an exaggeration from H Heath to any of the alternative hospitals , although Benedict has a valid point it is overstated .
266. Gladstone. Very good!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6519117.stm
270 As a self-ccnfessed binge eater,that could sway me:wink:(Burp)
223, 228 - Obama’s campaign seems to have entered a weird hiatus. His star has certainly faded a bit in terms of the novelty factor, and the pundits on this Sunday morning’s TV shows here certainly sounded more sceptical about his ability to win the presidency. (Equally, the punditocracy sounded less enthusiastic this week towards Giuliani).
Having said that IF he has raised more than $20m in funds (and his campaign’s offical silence on this matter is mystifying) that is an impressive achievement. Nevertheless, at the end of the day I don’t think Obama’s grassroots, web-funded, insurgency will be any more successful than Howard Dean’s.
I spotted this Edinburgh survey tonight
http://multimedia.scotsman.com/documents/pdf/eveningnews/electionsurvey.pdf
there seems to be a sea-change if this survey is to be believed. I would not think it weighted like a normal poll.
Has there been any comment on Polly Toynbee’s amusing article in the Guardian today? The good old “right wing press have it in for Labour” argument employed with a vigour not seen since the eighties. A bit strange that she fails to acknowledge the role of the leading anti-Gordon cheerleader though… ie. The Guardian
273 - A solid 95% turnout
I think it need to be fully appreciated just how long the US presidential selection race is and a bit like 24 hour news coveraghe of anything there are points when there isn’t much new to say. There is bound to be a hiatus on truly significant news of progress or regress for the candidates.
273 - is this supposed to be a whole Scotland survey?
This suggests huge SNP lead in both the constituency voting and the regional lists, which is wholly unlikely.
If SNP are to retain any credibility they must beat Labour in the popular vote but I would be surprised if this happens. If they are level then it is likely Labour will be the largest party because of the way their support is distributed in the first past the post seats.
Personally I suspect SNP will flatter to deceive as usual - in particular they will make no real headway at FPTP level.
274. Funnily enough. I just read the Toynbee rant. What a splendidly unreformed character she is: shrill, hectoring, silly and pompous all at once, and still able to maintain her Tuscan palazzo and her chilrens’ Westminster Schooling without even blushing at her own hypocrisy. I’d call her a witch but that might be an insult to honest practitoners of the Ancient Faith.
Gawd bless ‘er. As long as their are LeftY Pustules like her around, we can all remember why we are on the right.
And, yes, I too loved her blaming of Labour’s Trubbles on the wicked tabloid press. Nothing to do with Iraq, or cash for honours, or Botched Devolution, or the general sense of Feck Off Labour You Swindling Liars, nope - it’s all cause of the Daily Mail.
Right, Polly. Keep taking the pills.
Btw, for those who recall my article on Pb.com last year - all of you, I’m sure - projecting national shares of the vote in the local elections from the latest ICM poll ratings (here, I’ve updated it:
http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/2007/04/what-will-happen-in-2007-local.html
273 - it is an EDINBURGH survey.
272 Obama is a much more credible candidate than Dean, does not have the ‘wacky lefty’ baggage that Dean carried and, in any event, the political mood has shifted significantly since four years ago.
280 - thanks - even more surprised then.
Can’t see SNP winning in Edinburgh, poor 2nd at best
282 we might all be surprised on May 4th
In NI, SDLP has picked Margaret Ritchie as its nomination for NI government.
284. They’ve also decided the chairmanship and vice-chairmanships of committees
Health: Minister (Ulster Unionist Party), Chair (Democratic Unionist Party), Vice Chair (Sinn Fein).
Finance and Personnel: Minister (DUP), Chair (Sinn Fein), Vice Chair (DUP).
Education: Minister (Sinn Fein), Chair (DUP), Vice Chair (SDLP).
Committee of the Centre: First Minister (DUP), Deputy First Minister (Sinn Fein), Chair (UUP), Vice Chair (Alliance).
Enterprise, trade and Investment: Minister (DUP), Chair (SDLP), Vice Chair (Sinn Fein).
Culture, arts and leisure: Minister (DUP), Chair (Sinn Fein), Vice Chair (UUP).
Agriculture and rural development: Minister (Sinn Fein), Chair (DUP), Vice Chair (UUP).
Employment and learning: Minister (UUP), Chair (Sinn Fein), Vice Chair (DUP).
Social development: Minister (SDLP), Chair (DUP), Vice Chair (DUP).
Regional Development: Minister (Sinn Fein), Chair (UUP), Vice Chair (DUP).
Environment: Minister (DUP), Chair (SDLP), Vice Chair (Sinn Fein).
Chairs and vice chairs of the standing committee.
Institution review committee: Chair (DUP), Vice Chair (Sinn Fein).
Public accounts committee: Chair (Sinn Fein), Vice Chair (UUP).
Committee of procedures: Chair (DUP), Vice Chair (DUP).
Standards and privileges committee: Chair (SDLP), Vice Chair (Sinn Fein).
Ordered Committee: Chair (DUP), Vice Chair (UUP).
Re: 279, anyone have a model to plug in the numbers to see what that may mean in council seats?
282 - if SNP do that well i’ll be * surprised!
Maybe Watford will stay up after all!!!!
279 - Stephen welcome back and very sorry to hear about you being assaulted. I hope you are recoving well!
288 - I don’t think Stephen Tall is Big Tall Tim, is he?
288/289 - oh my mistake!! Wrong Tall guy?!
289. Big Tall Tim is Tim Hill from Bedford, I think. The first pb.com poster
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/12/26/and-now-the-winners-of-our-competitions/
288/291 Rik/Andrea. Don’t be unkind to Rik …. it was very nice of him to ask how Stephen’s “recoving” was going. Decorating ones drawing room can be very theraputic !
292. Jack, I wasn’t being unkind!
293 Andrea. By implication you were suggesting that Rik doesn’t know his Liberal Democrat arse from his tall guy elbows !!
Dear old Boris. ‘here we are in one of the most depressed towns in England (Portsmouth), a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity and Labour (sic) MPs ‘(GQ magazine). Mike Hancock(LD) and the Labour MP for Portsmouth North have predictably called for his resignation. Does Sean T do his scripts? Oh well, I dare say the Tories can win a majority without Portsmouth!
294. Jack, You can’t imply anything. It’s all spin and spin and spin
Labour has announced its 53 candidates for Darlington Council…the world was awaiting with anxiety for this announcement.
As already announced months ago, the wife of the former Tory council group leader (ousted in January) is standing for Labour
Andrea was the wife ousted or the Tory group leader or perhaps both?
297. Blue Moon, the Tory group leader
297 blue moon. Who has ousted Andrea as a wife ??
Jack W it’s all very complicated!
299. Jack, stop with your faux Pamela!
Hi all, long term lurker, first time poster!
First, cards on the table- I’m a Parliamentary Reseacher for the Tories, so obviously if you’re so inclined you might want take my observations with a pinch of salt. That said, I don’t think I’m _that_ delusional…
To return to the perennial issue of Brown, I have to say that in our camp we’re watching the whole thing with rather a lot of incredulity- we honestly can’t believe that Labour are sleepwalking into selecting Brown when from our perspective he’s such damaged goods. To us, it seems like the mirror image of the man-trap we narrowly escaped in 2005 with David Davis.
I got talking in the Lords’ Bar with a bunch of our Labour opposite numbers the other day, and what struck me was their complete and unshakeable faith in Gordon- they were convinced that he’s some sort of panacea for everything that Labour is currently suffering. When I pointed out things like that Sky interview in the aftermath of the Budget when they got the viewers to indicate their approval or disapproval (needless to say, the bar remained overwhelmingly in the red throughout), they just shrugged and changed the subject. It really was quite odd- it rather reminded me of trying to debate with Jehovah’s witnesses or something.
I don’t know how widespread this feeling is throughout the Labour Party, but it rather shocked me. Beforehand I assumed that a lot of the support for Brown was on the assumption that he’d lead to a swift return to opposition and a chance for Labour renewal, but it seems that at least some of the Labour staffers actually believe that they can manage not only a viable fourth, but even a fifth term under Gordon. Obviously I’m too cynical for my own good!
As for Miliband I don’t feel that the people around me are genuinely that worried about him- he seems to be generally respected as an allright, if rather limp and ineffectual sort of guy. Personally I’m rather impressed by him, but if he ever comes up in passing around the office the topic of conversation tends to revolve around laughing at his bum-fluff moustache…
In fact, the one person we’re all genuinely petrified of is Reid- not so much because of the electoral damage he can do us, but more because he’s regarded as more or less a card-carrying fascist. In my experience the majority of the Cabinet provoke derision or at best a grudging respect, but Reid is the only one to provoke fear- it’s only mitigated by the fact that we don’t think he has any chance of climbing the greasy pole any further.
Anyway, hope that’s instructive- Love the site, just wish I had the courage to actually put some money on stuff!
Meanwhile .. one of Diggers American rags takes a less than charitable view of our “hostages”. Can’t see the “Sun” agreeing !
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04032007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/wheres_winston__opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm
……………….
300 blue moon. It alaways is !!
Very out of character on my part but as I have been posting here for a while I thought I would share some sad news with you.
I am married and have a son aged 8 called Laurence.
Thats not the sad news that’s the good news. One of Laurence’s best pals at school, William,aged 9, has been diagnosed with an advanced cancer.
We are all devastated. Awaiting further news. Please keep your fingers crossed or whatever you do.
302 - Welcome!
“the one person we’re all genuinely petrified of is Reid” - I’m scared stiff of the man too.
I’d rather have Ann Winterton as PM. She’s more cuddly and left wing.
Personally I think Gordon is starting to look a little bit damaged, but nothing like to the degree the opposition spins. I think he will be fairly formidable against Cameron. I do feel that the Tories are scared of Gordon, and that’s why they are trying to get the knife deep into him now.
The David Davis comparison is meaningless. Had David Davis had ten years as a top ranking Cabinet minister, we could discuss it.
Got a copy of the local BNP leaflets being distributed in Beeston Rylands. They’re a weird combination. One is the more or less non-racial populist stuff that I’d heard the BNP were now going for - crime, tax, border control, freedom, stand up for ordinary people. No explicit mention of race at all. It’s an inexpensive black and white leaflet, locally-printed and refers to the local candidate.
Wrapped inside is a coloured leaflet called “Immigration? Open your eyes!” This is *entirely* about race and overtly hostile to non-white people. “Anti-British race attacks are commonplace”, “businesses are forced to employ immigrants”, “STOP all further immigration”, “reducing the number of non-whites is the only way to restore peace” etc etc This one is printed in Hertfordshire on quality paper and obviously national party material. If that’s the new moderate BNP, they haven’t got very far. I’d think the two-track approach is going to puzzle some potential voters.
302 Peter D. Welcome.
Interesting piece. Don’t lurk so much.
On the betting side, many of our selections are win/win and even a couple of quid adds a little spice …… but ssssshhhhhhhh steer clear of four legged wagers from a certain punter called Peter ! ….. we’ve all come to the conclusion that the owner is really Gordon Brown hoping to reintroduce betting tax and thus clear the national debt !
Really sorry to hear that, stjohn - must be very tough for your son to deal with.
302. Welcome Peter Dunn
304. Stjohn. I’m terribly sorry to hear it
302 re Reid. He may be scary, but it did occur to me that if he were Foreign Secretary rather than Margaret Beckett we might have made more progress in getting the captured Navy personnel released - if only because the Iranian ambassador would be petrified of getting a Glasgow kiss
302 - Peter we must speak! Dont tell everyone our secrets! Lol
304 - very sorry to hear this news. A terrible time for William, his family and all his friends. I can connect to this situation through a personal experience.
301 Andrea. There’s nothing “faux” about my Pamela !! ….. certainly not in this mans Navy !!
http://img.timeinc.net/people/i/2006/gallery/smiles/pamela_andersonq1.jpg
…………………
304 stjohn. That very sad, but the young can be remarkably tough and I hope all end well.
313. Jack, sorry, but I don’t have a pic of my Pamela. If you’ve some friends in West of Scotland, you can ask them to check how she looks like in leaflets (if they’ve put a pic on them)
Thanks for the welcome everyone!
305/SBS- Glad we’re not the only ones terrified of Reid, whenever he’s mentioned in connection with the leadership the conversation tends to come to an appalled halt and then somebody will mutter “There but for the grace of god…”
Obviously on the Brown front we’re likely to be more critical then strictly objective- I don’t sense any fear of him though. The assumption is that he’s going to be the next leader but while he’s certainly a big beast, it’s felt that we have the tools to sort him out. For me, the really damaging thing for him is how the press are beginning to scent blood- I know that it’s in their interests as they hate a foregone conclusion, but I think it’s quite significant. As I say, it’s the almost cult-like faith in him shown by some Labour people that I find surprising; my colleagues are certainly enthusiastic Tories but not in that slightly boggle-eyed ‘true believer’ sort of way. Of course I would say that though, wouldn’t I!
On the David Davis front, it’s obviously not a great comparison, but my point was more the inevitability thing- I suppose having been through a leadership election where the leading challenger was defeated by a superior candidate us Tories are naturally more inclined to see things through that prism.
307/Jack W- I’ll try to post more often, to be honest it’s knowing how (in)discreet to be thats my main worry! I suppose I’ll just have to try not to get goaded into a rant that makes the mask slip… Was very tempted to stick a few quid on Jack Straw as next Chancellor the other week, sadly by the time the idea had permeated around the office they’d slashed the odds. Next time though we shall see!
314 - Andrea if she looks like a lot of women from the West of Scotland then none of us are really missing out.
Thanks Guys. I hesitated to share this news but on these occasaions you go with your instinct.
Much appreciated.
304 - That really is awful news and must be very difficult to deal with. I’m sure everyone here wishes William the very best.
316. Max, are you trying to destroy the remaing Tory support among West of Scotland women? She’s up against Annabel in the end
I’ve already spotted one of the contenders for the “hottest Holyrood candidate”. SHe’s from Glasgow.
315.”I’ll try to post more often, to be honest it’s knowing how (in)discreet to be thats my main worry! ”
You can always spin that it wasn’t really you, but Jack W using your screen-name
315 Peter D. We all love a bit of tittle tattle ….. and as you may have noticed more tit than tattle !!
314/316 Andrea/Max. Very ungallant Max …. not too sure Andrea if I can find a suitable pic of your Pamela.
re 126. OK here’s the figures for Birmingham last year. The 2003 figures are not comaparable bacause of boundary changes.
Vote share / seats
Lab 31.8% / 14
C 26.4% / 16
LD 22.6% / 9
Gr 5.0% / 0
Respect 3.2% / 1
BNP 11.1% / 0
Other 0.8% / 0
Lab seat majorities are Oscott 0.3% (over C), Hodge Hill 4.7% (over LD), Aston 7.7% (over LD), Kingstanding 10.2% (over BNP), Tyburn 12.7% (over C) - all the rest reasonably safe
LD seat majorities Moseley 1.9% (over Lab), Bordesley 11.6% (over Lab), Hall Green 14.4% over (C), Selly Oak 14.7% (over Lab)
The Tories hold 6 wards all with less than 6% over Lab but I’d bet on them to hold these.
So assuming a modest swing from Lab to C and small one from Lab to LD then Lab could expect to lose 1 or 2 to C, and 1 or perhaps 2 to LD. If the BNP do well then there’s the possibilty of another Lab loss to BNP. LD wards look reasonably safe.
320 Andrea. Milanese Lib Dem dirty tricks !!
321/Jack W- Exactly the way it should be!
Now, I really must get some sleep but thanks for the warm welcome everyone, shall try to contribute more soon…
321 - In my defence Jack have you seen the topless photos doing the rounds of Miss Renfrewshire 2007?!
http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2005/04/11/sumo-widdecombe.jpg
324 Peter D. Yes .. time for bed said Zebidee .. boyng
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
325 Max. Thanks Max …. truly the stuff of nightmares !!
And now the nightmare begins …. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
322. Chris. A Labour councillor is up in Billesley and Erdington where the tories won last year. So Lab should should lose those 2 seats too
“LD wards look reasonably safe”" A LD is up in Sparkbrook this year and Respect was last year (it depens on how much was personal vote for Salma). Another LD is up in Springfield won by Lab last year (they had the incubency effect last time)
re 303. I do immensely dislike the way the Yanks misspell proper nouns like Labour.
oops Andrea thanks for pointing out my mistake. I forgot that those up for election were those who came 2nd in the last all up election in 2004. Lab were only 6% in the lead in Springfield last year.
8. to 14. not sure what you are talking about, so I’ll try this:
socialist
330. Chris. who’s up in Aston this year?
Peter - sleep?! This is PB.com - we never sleep. Some ground rules Rik W claims to be a Conservative but as he has clearly never heard of you, we are beginning to doubt his claims (He is an ace canvasser - 99% Tory results even when he canvasses in Newcastle!).
Dont worry about being indiscreet. Brown is going to be next PM so you are a bit late to lift your skirts in horror at the the possibility of Reid standing.
Wouldn’t mind a post from you at how Cameron seems to be missing open goals and who/what you would do about it!
This is a good reason to use a pseudonym on these sort of sites, especially if you might be looking for a job soon.
http://shopper.pcpro.co.uk/clivegobby/?news/news_story.php?id=109002
334. It means I’ll never find a job…especially in Mrs Hilary Armstrong’s office
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1610492.ece
Now Times says that “Four Cabinet ministers at the time of the first Labour Budget in 1997 have told The Times that they could not recall the decision being discussed at Cabinet level. Ministers at the Department of Social Security, which had responsibility for pensions, said that they were not consulted. One former Treasury official described the lack of consultation with departments that were affected as “astonishing”. The pensions industry has complained repeatedly that it was not consulted.”
This story is developing multiple legs.
334 Sorry if you get an ad first on the link. Close the ad and the story will appear.
re 332. Andrea it’s the LDs - they won all 3 seats in the “banana republic” by election.
Re 266, 267 and 268, just how bl**dy long do you think it takes to drive to Eastbourne!
In fact on a bad day it can take and hour and a half!
So Mark not only do I have a point but I am not overstating it!
PS Jonathan, I do hope that Redhill has places when labour happens as otherwise you are in for a long and difficult time.
Peter Dunn - Rik’s canvassing in Sutton 180% Tory and in Reading 130% (he is tiring!).
Agree that you might be able to be more indiscreet with a pseudonym.
338. Chris. Didn’t one of them defect to Respect last month?
Re 274, Alex, Polly? Ah bless..
Chris obviously the Council will stay NOC but it looks like the Tories could be the largest Party on the Council for the first time for very many years(how many I wonder I think they probably had overall control in 1968). They need 2 gains from Labour, I think. (44 to 41 at the moment)
re 278, SeanT I can see why you are a novelist. Brilliant!
343.”(how many I wonder I think they probably had overall control in 1968). ”
They held overall control also in 1976-1978 and in 1982-1983
re 341. Andrea where do you get it from? No doubt you’ll be telling me that the lampost down the steet needs a new bulb next! Mr Aziz (for it is he) does seem to be no longer a LD and is listed as an Independent.
306 - interested to hear that, Nick. I wonder if the more, er, strident of the two leaflets is to be used in certain areas only - Beeston Rylands presumably being an area where they think it’ll do more good than harm. Can’t imagine they will bother leafleting Beeston West, but I’ll report back if they do.
273/282 - it was a telephone/internet poll organised by the Evening News.
You only have to look at the last time voting intentions (and the Steve Cardownie) questions to see that the Nats have rigged it.
The Nats won’t win a single MSP in Edinburgh and they will struggle to get into double figures of cllrs (even under STV).
It’s about as sensible as the Detroit Times poll that showed Dewey beating Truman….
346. Chris
Anyway it looks as Lab will lose 3 to Con (Billesley and Erdington already lost in 2006 + Oscott held by a very tiny margin last year) and 1 potential loss to LD (Hodge Hill).
In Aston they can’t lose since they’re not defending. It should be seen if they can gain Aston as they did in 2006 and what happens in Springfield (last year they won it with a low % with LD second and Respect a decent third. However they had the third placed Labourite up for election. This year there’s the LD incumbent up for election)
Re 304, Stjohn, I am very sorry to hear the news.
Re 305, SBS,”I’d rather have Ann Winterton as PM. She’s more cuddly and left wing.”
The scary thing is I would agree though I would add, much more competent.
Shesh? Where are we going with this?
329. “I do immensely dislike the way the Yanks misspell proper nouns like Labour.”
Fact is, they don’t…..
The addition of a “u” to words like Labor, humor, honor is a 19th Century UK English affectation/standardisation. Prior to that time we often spelled the same as the Yanks do now.
Furthermore, I have heard it said that Shakespeare would understand modern American English, including accent, easier than he would modern “Queen’s” English…
352 -You are correct, some communities in America still speak with an Elizabethean accent, they dont get out much
352. The fact that we British changed some of our spellings and pronunciations in the 17th and 18th centuries does not make it “wrong”. The Americans are still wrong if they incorrectly did not follow our lead by copying our new spellings.
353 There is an island off the coast of Virginia, Tangier Island, where the accent is allegedly unchanged from the 16th century West Country accent of those who settled it.
Very sorry to hear that Stjohn. Best wishes.