The bail-out - is Labour reaping the benefit?
October 9th, 2008
The spread markets start moving against the Tories
There’s been a sharp move back to Labour on the commons seats spread markets where the Tory levels have dropped six seats and Labour moved up the same amount since the weekend.
The latest numbers from Sporting Index are CON 344-350: LAB 232-238: LD 43-46 seats.
What’s interesting is that this hasn’t been sparked off by any new polls but Brown’s confident public performances and the difficulty that the Tories have finding something relevant to say.
The critical thing now is whether the changing view of gamblers will be seen in the next crop of polls and if so will it be sustained?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
When are the next polls due?
No.
First!!!
This is all giving commentators a little bit to say, but the fundamentals remain the same - people are not going to reward Labour for their ‘age of irresponsibility’ at the ballot box.
Labour may have pulled back to around 30% of the vote, but this is not some kind of huge resurrection that the commentators are trying to tell us it is. They’re still over 10 points behind in the polls. They are not doing anything but badly.
Small point, but in the Lab Sporting Index numbers, I think you mean 232-238 (you certainly don’t mean 323-238).
In the short term, the pressure has definitely come off Gordon Brown. Whether this makes any practical difference to the general election result is much more debatable.
previous 426 - But if the council has employed professional advisers (normal practice) then this is not the case. Also from what I have heard in order to meet government best value targets they had to lodge with the highest return of double aa rated institution, whilst also not putting all eggs in one basket.
I think it is easy to criticise from afar (as you are finding) without having any knowledge of how things work. Common sense in these situations does not always apply.
For example if the guidance says
Invest money in highest returning account where
:- institution is double A rated
:- ensuring only 20% is retained in one institution at one time.
The person will then look at all double A rated institutions and rank on returns on a periodic basis. They will then move money in accordingly. Only upon guidance from prfoessional body or government would mean that they would move from icelandic banks. If this process is not followed then council will be deemed to be poorly performing affecting grants available from central government. The way the system is set up means it is more important to follow government guidance than find a system that works better.
by Nemtynakht (formerly known as ChrisP) October 9th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
It’s all too early to say. If the Libor doesn’t budge will the PM and Chancellor keep throwing good money after bad and how long will the public put up with that? If it succeeds and the Libor drops then will Brown get the credit or will the grind of recession through the winter take its toll.
Labour have had some good days in Westminster and the Tories appear wrong-footed but what MPs and the commentariat think is not the same as the public’s view and that hasn’t come out clearly yet.
My own view, for what its worth, is that if the Tories can maintain their lead at 10-15 for the next 6 weeks then Brown is in real trouble again. The rebels appear to have shot their bolt and it is unlikely that Brown will be deposed but sniping and positioning for the aftermath of a GE defeat would recommence.
Mr Brown has a small window of opportunity, Cameron’s lead in the polls and the fact that, as leader of the opposition, he has no actual power, means that he can afford to make a few mistakes. The downsides of any Brownian slips are massive.
nickc (form previous thread) The banks were not banging on the Treasury door. The strong ones (HSBC, Lloyds TSB and Barclays) would have survived this. It is the weak banks the taxpayer is saving. They have spent our money, now they want the taxpayer (through the government) to provide more money to save them. It is effectively a call on shareholders, without the shareholders receiving anything in return. Do you think even £500 Billion will make or break this crisis? Lloyds TSB alone have £500 Billion in assets already. The size of these companies dwarfs anything the government can offer. When this all unravels and it becomes apparent the government have got this wrong, do not then say “its easy to comment with the benefit of hindsight”.
On topic
Short term yes
Long term no
5. I personally doubt it has: however you guys should bin Osborne as shadow chancellor, he’s shrill and indecisive and has been awful on the financial crisis. I still think you guys will win handily next time: but tale my tip: drop Boy George, and Pickles while you are at it.
4 That’s just it - the fundamentals HAVE changed - for the first time really since about 1974. I think the jury’s still out as to whether current Labour can benefit under the new paradigm, but I would think it’s pretty certain that the Tories will suffer, as will Lib Dems unless they can make it pretty clear that neo-liberal economics is now off the agenda.
The difficulty for Brown is that there is already a renewed note of negativity entering the media narrative. The FTSE is down again and Libor isn’t shifting. If this bailout is suddenly perceived not to have worked then he really has nowhere else to go.
9 Good grief, have we met Sir ? - Agreed again !
( albeit from an arch disenfranchised unreconstructed right wing Conservative point of view who’s savouring the eventual revolution !)
There is no doubt the polls have shown a Labour recovery over the last couple of weeks, but this is only through visibility rather than a move in the public mood. By November the Tory 20 point leads will be back.
I think worryingly for Labour it has shown that their high point is now 30-31%. I cannot see them breaking this barrier, the only way is down. By December when the bailout has unravelled we will see Labour below 20 points and the Tories touching 60.
11. I don’t buy this ‘end to free market’ stuff, actually. I think it’s clear confidence has taken a bump and when the banking system actually recovers it will probably be slapped with bigger restraints than before; but nothing huge is happening here, I don’t see a population ready and willing to embrace socialism again.
11. Wishful thinking, I’m afraid.
Labour might gain some points in the near term. But the Tories have Labour right where they want them - with an unchallenged Gordon at the helm. Because the light is fading, there’s foxes about - and his chickens are heading homwards….
I doubt very much whether spending vast amounts of tax payers money to keep afloat a system that Labour have let get out of control, after Brown promising he had abolished the boom/bust cycle, will actually give Brown/Labour much benefit at all. Think about it.
1. Next poll, YouGov/Sunday Time, will be due at the weekend, I think.
I thought LloydsTSB and Barclays are amongst the ones needing cash to sort their balance sheets out.
My view oft repeated on this site is that Labour don’t get DC - they think he is light-weight and that the Tory lead is ’soft’. It is true but only in the sense that all of politics is sensitive to the vicissitudes of 24 hour news. The underlying economic situation is horrendous. The underlying polling information is rock solid for DC medium to long-term. Labour is clapped out and finished - all of the wiser heads know it. There is no ‘benefit’ for Labour to gain even in the short-term because the package cannot work in the sense of deleting the recession or the slump in house prices, etc, etc, etc
10 - “You guys”? I’m not a Tory.
Surely the question to ask is how close have the spreads been to the actual results in previous elections? ..and is Ave it 08 a more reliable forecaster. Does anyone know the answer to the first question please
Also remember most of the Labour bounce has come at the expense of the LDs - the Tory vote is mostly unchanged.
Both Neil Woodford and Anthony Bolton have called the market as probably near the bottom, with growing investment opportunities appearing.
Let’s hope they’re right.
15. Even if one assumes we are seeing the ‘end to free market’ and the UK going back to a more 1950’s style financial system (and as you point out, thats probably an over-reaction) theres no reason why that damage Tory prospects. The Tories were in power for long periods under that system, just as they have been under the free market system. The great thing about the Conservative Party is its adaptability.
15. “I don’t see a population ready and willing to embrace socialism again.”
Although it depends how you define ’socialism’. Many American politicians seem to regard their bailout plan - proposed by George W Bush, no less - as a form of socialism.
Certainly, may right-wing Americans think we already have a socialist government, with ’socialized medicine’ (ridiculous phrase), a ’socialist welfare system’ and ’socialist gun control legislation’.
19 - Absolutely not. If Lloyds TSB had needed cash to sort their balance sheet out they couldn’t possibly have bought HBoS, likewise Barclays could not have bought Morgan Stanley.
I think Labour will get a permanent improvement in poll ratings from this week, but this will merely move us from looking at a landslide to a moderate Tory majority.
However, the Tories should be careful about assuming that the recession to come will automatically mean people will move toward them - recessions make people more cautious and (as in 1992) there is a tendency to keep hold of nurse. It will be very hard for the Tories to differentiate themselves from the current government’s economic policy - sharing the proceeds of growth and tax cuts are clearly pie in the sky for the next few years at least. And people realise that this is a global crisis which transcends party politics and cannot credibly be blamed on Brown’s chancellorship - it’s hard to criticise his level of borrowing when you have just supported doubling it. And if you do you have to say where you would cut.
i am really hoping that this polling move will make one positive difference to our lives on this site:
CCHQ will realise that this economic situation is pretty neutral for them at best, and Con spin lines (and associated pb.com posters) will stop going on and on and on and on about forthcoming economic doom, how it all started in may ‘97, and is limited to the UK, with no insight or economic facts involved.
I think the global financial crisis in many ways leads to a reset of the political landscape around the world. A government (which basically includes Obama right now) that is able to deal convincingly with the crisis can bring itself in a very favorable position. A government that fails to do this will be punished regardless of previous merits.
Given the situation of the Labour government in the UK, a reset is basically the best thing they could ever have hoped for. I’m fairly sure the past year hasn’t been forgotten, but if Gordon Brown can convince the British public that he is on top of this crisis, that will be a much more important factor than, say, the lost by-elections. I’m not sure if voters’ collective memory will lead them to see that Labour has presided over much of the build-up of this crisis.
So Labour wins? I doubt it. Gordon Brown has shown over the past year that he’s not a good leader. That hasn’t changed just because he now has the opportunity to start anew. He will probably fail to explain why Labour is needed in this crisis (I think this is a crisis that validates the left-wing approach). He will probably make visible mistakes dealing with this crisis.
We will see. For now, I think it’s only reasonable to see that there is a break in the narrative and that if the Tories want to continue their rather unusual polling advantage, they will need Gordon Brown to mess it up. It’s all about governments losing. If the past is (partly) forgotten and Brown currently does well, the next polls should reflect that, too. It makes sense to adjust for that while betting.
19 - More smoke and mirrors. Some of the banks mentioned in the Government statement yesterday, issued their own fairly strong denials later that morning.
28. Pure spin.
27. You mean Barclays buying Lehman dont you? Unless I missed something today.
Oh, and regarding McCain’s “exciting” morning news. So it’s a new Ayers web (!) ad. I think that’s just desperate. The McCain campaign should try to not to cry “wolf” too many times. Next time they announce something major is about to happen, the press may just not care.
29
Borrowing as a percentage of GDP has increased every year since 1997 (Economic fact).
This is a problem (Insight).
Job Done
21 - if you are not labour you are tory didn;t you know
28 1992 is exceptional though. It’s more likely for a recession to result in a vote against the incumbent.
33 Freudian slip
37, and even in 1992, the Conservative majority was cut by 80%.
33 Watch this space for a Barclays / Bank of America merger.
21. Whoops. Sorry Antifrank, sometimes I get mixed up. Quite often in fact. Most days, if I’m honest.
34. Indeed. It is the lamest anti climax ever: Those Bill Ayers ads have been running (Jack W tells me) in swing states for weeks with no effect.
I think the betting markets are re-acting to yesterday’s highly unusual news… the govt. actually doing something. However, the FTSE has finished down on the day, the LIBOR 3-month rate has actually gone up & Halifax(?) release house-price figures showing the largest year-on-year drop for a very long time. Given that recessions usually hurt incumbents, this lurch to Labour will be short-lived, i.e fill yer boots before reality re-establishes itself.
37 - I set out my theory on this question this morning. I would be interested in your views:
“These poll ratings mean something, but the central question is what they mean. I don’t know about anyone else, but I cast my vote on a composite of different criteria, the weighting to which varies according to external circumstances. In wartime, I would generally choose the best war leader. In bad economic times, I would generally choose the most financially capable.
This leads me to a point that I made yesterday. It is possible that Gordon Brown is a Giffen good:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
He may be generally poorly thought of and he may be partially blamed for the current crisis, but if the perception is that he is the most financially capable of the party leaders (and David Cameron is transparently not particularly comfortable talking about economic issues), his polling will rise in bad times, even if his stock has gone down.
What I draw from all of these polls is that point has not yet been reached. Even where Gordon Brown polls well ahead on economic issues compared with David Cameron, Labour still are way behind the Tories in the party polling. The economy has not - yet - become important enough for any advantage that Gordon Brown might have to accrue.
If my analysis is correct, then generally, bad times would be bad news for the Liberal Democrats as the least tested party. Of course now, Vince Cable has established a real name for himself on economic issues. So far, the Lib Dems haven’t profited. Might they do so yet? And if so, at whose expense? My guess is that Vince Cable has done enough to neutralise a squeeze on Lib Dem votes in hard times, but no more than that.
by antifrank October 9th, 2008 at 9:03 am”
37. Yes, we keep hearing about 1992 over and over again, but that was an extremly unique situation. Neil Kinnock was virtually unelectable and John Major was personally quite popular in the early days of his Premiership.
re. boylesports odds on obama winning margin from last thread…..odds on 80 or less now 5/1; did the poster get any money on at 8/1? they currently have 200+ as the 4/1 favourite……
40 You serious? Why would Barc merge with BOA?
29 Ed - GB told us what to think
“An end to boom and bust”. Therefore I can now expect no boom and bust.
“I will not let property prices get out of control” Therefore no property bubble to ruin consumer confidence.
I have not said at any point that world problems are GBs fault. But his ego over 10 years as chanacellor has, as he increased spending, and bent his golden rules, and allowed a property bubble, all in order to be personally popular. I would have more respect for him if we were in frances shoes. They have had unspectacular growth, as they have not let spending get out of control. Therefore they are now in recession, but can do something about it because they have put money aside rather than borrowing huge amounts. GBs problem was that he believed his own hype, and now we will all pay.
19, 27 No - Lloyds TSB is not spending any cash to buy HBOS - it proposes to pay in shares. Had it not done this it could possibly have survived without needing to recapitalise (as HSBC can). But the banks have so many interbank liabilities that the failure of one would lead to the failure of them all - the current crisis was triggered when Lehman collapsed - it is uncertainty about exposure to Lehman that led to the drying up of interbank lending which pushed RBS to the brink on Monday.
20. My view is that the Tory lead is not soft and DC is a huge asset for you chaps. However, the shadown front bench does have weak links:
1. George Osborne. Always sounds like a silly, badly informed schoolbiy.
2. Eric “Flip Flop” Pickles. Opens mouth before engaging brain.
3. Dominic Grieve. Woeful public speaker and purveyor of dangerous, unworkable policies.
Hack them three out and replace with thoughtful MPs such as Damien Green and you’ll have a good team and will win handily.
Not sure whether reported earlier, Nottinham Council (Labour controlled) has / had £42m invested with Icelandic Bank. FTSE closes down 54 points with Dow trading in negative territory. LIBOR has also increased today. This lot has still some way to run before we get back to an even keel.
Good theory but Giffen Goods don’t actually exist in reality (hey - its a better analogy than I thought). Another Economic theoretical assumption that has never been proved. Like capitalism or socialism.
46. Still think 5-1 is keenly priced, although 8-1 was a truly fantastic value bet.
52. Or like the Laffer Curve and how a NMW causes unemployment… Oh no!!!
BTW, you sort out the missus’ pay by the way? Hope so chap.
Mike, I fear you are misleading people here. The SpreadFair prices have hardly moved since the weekend. The Labour buy price has moved from 235 to 237, and the Conservative buy price has moved from 351 down to 350.4. That could hardly be called a major change. Most of this is profit taking.
37 No - neither of the two deepest post-war recessions - 1980 and 1991 - resulted in a change of government. And it is hard to argue that the 1974-5 recession did either - most people would say that the 1979 election result owed much more to the Winter of Discontent than the preceding recession.
45 - Also Major felt much fresher in 1992 than Brown does now, because he had had a much more rapid rise to the top. He only entered the Cabinet in 1987, three years before becoming PM; whereas Brown has been at the top level of the Labour party since 1992 – 16 years.
Barclays still think that I am good for my mortgage credit cards and other loans. They might be in for a shock! Unless the Gov gave me some of the £50bn of course!
44 I think it’s quite possible that people would support a government which they respect, in hard economic times. But I think this government is past that point.
Codwar restarts. Iceland upset about closure of Kaupthing in the UK - using Anti-terror legislation. Gordon freezing assets of Icelandic firms in the UK. Wartime prime minister boost for Gordon - it is his Falklands moment.
Short term anything could happen.
But
when unemployment hist 2.5million next year,
and the Government starts cutting spending
and companies go bust
and living standards rise for no-one but MPs
and taxes rise on petrol as fuel prices fall
and the Government deficit balloons out of control
and we lose the Afghan war
and ID cards are introduced at vast expense
and house prices fall a further 25%
and 1 million home owners ahve negative equity
and house reposessions soar
and personal bankruptcies soar
the political impacts of who does what and says what NOW will fade..
52. actually, it looks like they probably do. Greg mankiw had a link to this paper last year… http://www.nber.org/papers/w13243
59 - I take that point. I offer my observations simply because it is my preferred explanation as to why the Conservatives won in 1992.
36. That’s a lot of twaddle Nernty.
Good evening. Just back from Oxford Street, London. Joined the minions spending their last cash in a pre-Christmas frenzy. For myself bought some winter gear - Coat, Jumpers, pants - to keep me warm in the freeze to come.
O/T. Unless Cameron and co., get their fingers out and start being an attacking opposition, then Labour may well make some gain in the polls.
On the other hand Iceland is sticking 2 fingers up to Brown and making the Gret Leader v angry indeed. See PH for details.
42 Benbob
To the extent that the Ayer ads are being pushed (and it’s somewhat tentatively I believe), they signify only that the GOP is trying to shore up its core vote. The claims, such as they are, would be unlikely to make much of an impression beyond that base.
It fits in with my own theory that Texas (not Indiana) is McCain’s firewall. If he holds the line there, it isn’t too bad in all the circumstances. Should Texas fall, hey-ho…!
45 GIN Agreed
It might be comforting (ie delusional) for Labour to hope the 1992
parallel might encourage people to stick with better the devil they know, hold on to nurse etc.
Ermm…except the 1992 parallel is not quite valid, since we now have the reverse position with the opposition leader personally quite popular and the incumbent virtually unelectable.
Real Clear Politics electoral map shows:-
Obama: 277
McCain: 163
Toss-Up: 98
VA leaning Obama.
Obama theortical victory!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain
56. The onset of the Great Depression did for Labour. The onset of the 1974/75 recession did for the Conservatives. And the recession of 1980/81 would have done for the Conservatives had there been an election in 1980 or 1981. But there wasn’t an election till 1983, after the Falklands victory, and when the economy was performing strongly.
From Wikipedia (with usual caveats) - “The original population of Iceland was of Nordic and Celtic origin. This is evident from literary evidence dating from the settlement period as well as from later scientific studies such as blood type and genetic analyses. One such genetics study has indicated that the majority of the male settlers were of Nordic origin while the majority of the women were of Celtic origin”
Our Malvinas moment! Merge them (and their banks) with Scotland!
54 now come on - I think when we discussed it we said that it could not possibly have a positive effect (economically, or on employment) but the negative effect may be virtually negligbible, due to the level it is set at, therefore it is an achievement for labour. We can say it is positive in terms of valuing workers contribution, a psychological positive, but unlike some people tried to claim, it cannot create more employment.
61 Reading you makes me feel suicidal.
48. very good example of tiresome, out-of-date and out-of-context propaganda that will hopefully die a death.
New PPP poll for Virginia :
McCain 43% .. Obama 51%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf
60. Oops…last time Labour picked a fight with the Icelanders, they ended up being humiliated. Bad move…
69. meanwhile, events and common sense have overtaken your “discussions”.
49 Sorry nickc agree to differ and don’t really want to continue this discussion. I do know a bit about these things; my CV includes the Lloyds TSB merger. Think about it, Barclays is the only global European bank, Bank of America the only global North American bank. What the world needs most is a global bank.
Runnymede - You return to 1215 if you like, but plenty of wishful thinking from your direction. I think it unlikely we will end up with a fully command economy, but it is worth looking at the perspective that this crisis is only a very mini rehearsal for the Big One - when environmental chickens really come home to roost. In that case, this is a very useful process, to remind us all forcefully that we live in an ever more interdependent world, and by golly if we don’t get collaborating soon and saving resources, there will be the most almighty blow-up!
If you choose to describe this as saying “the end of the free market”, fine. I think I would say something more like, we cannot do in the 21st Century what we did with laissez faire in the 18th and early 19th Centuries - there must be much more cooperation and democratic control (again, if you want to call that “regulation”, fine).
71 only it wont.. it will be Gordo’s epitaph
61 Madasafish I think the incumbent government will be able to reap a huge reward from having experience and being able to steer the hard working families and small businesses of the country through those difficult times (Not).
I feel quite sorry for the left minded on here as I really think the government is giving them little to support. Despite his claims brown proves again he himself is spin not substance (timing of rate cut announcement, bi-partisan until the opposition cannot reply, the happiest pictures of gordon as the economy goes belly up). I think there is a real debate on schools / hospitals / social services which labour should be sticking to.
64. I don;t get your drift. If Indiana falls… it’s one big fat landslide for Obama… Texas is way down the list. Are you suggesting the GOP consider the race lost and are just trying to protect their congressmen and senators in red states?
67. Hi SeanF. Have all you guys noticed that we are still talking of recession, when in fact this apears to be the start of a full blown depression.
Stock markets are still falling for the 7th straight working day, inspite, or perhaps one should say despite, all those billions being thrown on the Bonfire of Governmental insanities.
Dosn’t matter how much interest rates are cut now, (US is close to zero), the great march has begun.
Latest YouGov/Economist national poll :
McCain 43% .. Obama 46%
Note - All sampling pre debate. Under poll of AA - 2 points.
http://media.economist.com/media/pdf/econ_reg.pdf
79 That and loss of face, Ben.
79 benbobjim. BTW Selzer are in the field polling Indiana. I understand out this weekend.
76 etc. What has been very little discussed here is how a Obama victor affects the world markets. It would cause a collective orgasm in Europe and in the big blue states of the USA, which make most of the money, as well as in other areas across the world. US elections always affect the markets: an Obama victory may well have the potential to kick start the world economy.
80 Quite a lot still speak of “negative growth”!!
60.”Wartime prime minister boost for Gordon - it is his Falklands moment.”
No, its not! And if it has not already escaped your notice, we are in two war zones already under this government, neither of which seems to have brought out any signs of strong leadership or courage from Brown.
Benbobjim - Yes - my wife obviously doesn’t work during holidays (1/4) of the year. She only effectively gets paid for the 3/4 of the year when she is working. To smooth the payments, Birmingham Council pay 3/4 of the minimum wage all year, so instead of getting £6.00 per hour for 9 months she gets £4.50 per hour for 12 months. Same difference. It was my ignorance of this arrangement that caused my confusion.
74 - don;t know what you mean ed. I think that there is not an economic argument for NMW. This does not mean it is not a good policy for labour. I think Labour have done the right thing.
However the economic argument on here was that NMW had led to higher employment, which was a spurious argument. Like saying the government did the wrong thing yesterday because ftse down libor up. We could only say if it was wrong if we could compare what the ftse and libor would have been like without their intervention.
87. she only charged me GBP 4.25
83. Be very interested to see that poll. Re: YouGov, why have they underpolled AA by two points? These gremlins in polling help nobody. Any news on Gallup?
80 Well, I doubt if the World’s governments are going to reduce the money supply, or impose retaliatory tariffs on each other’s exports, as in 1931-33, so I suspect not.
88. No the argument on here was that NMW caused unemployment. There is no evidence whatsoever that it has done so – and I cannot believe we are going over this one again.
88. well the “economic argument”, like many economic arguments, turned out to be BS. it had negligible effect on employment - while obviously making a large difference to the lives of people working at this end of the payscale.
68. That explains why their women are so pretty then.
91. Another great post by Mr Fear. I am sick of this depression stuff: less of the hysteria and hyberbole please pbers.
85. ‘Negative Growth’. Yes we live in a world of oxymorons.
88. please note that interpreting intraday FTSE and LIBOR movements as “success” or “failure” for any policy, even an economic one, is fallacious.
70
I’m sorry I make you suicidal.
Adds note “next time add rise in number of attempted suicides”
87. With you. Yes that is legal then – I did wonder why Birmingham Council was breaking the law!
95. hopefully CCHQ will get the message soon - they lose a percentage of polling lead every time Osborne opens his mouth.
79/83 Ben and Jack
In the last 24 hours, North Carolina and Missouri have tipped Obama’s way on the Intrade map, which is now ‘predicting’ 364/174.
100 - Interesting psephological observation. Could you direct me to the detailed data?
‘Scottish councils tangled in Iceland’s web of banking woes’
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/33349-scottish-councils-tangled-in-icelands-web-of-banking-woes/
The local government umbrella body, Cosla, said the sums involved were considerably less than those deposited by English councils - which has now risen to more than £600m.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/north_east/7661206.stm
http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/Article.aspx/880433?UserKey=
Some of us oldies can remember the 1976 crisis, when sterling fell 12%, there was a loss of confidence in the country’s financial standing and the IMF intervened.
In the short-term it lead to greater belt-tightening and cuts in government spending. The ugly choices which needed to be made helped split the Labour Party. Callaghan even toyed with the idea of scrapping Polaris which would have been a big symbolic move. If the Brown gamble does not work, government debt balloons as it is threatening to do and sterling, already weak, goes into freefall, what would be the equivalent, big symbolic gesture in 2008/9? I wonder if we became really desperate we would scrap the Olympics, saying that we had more important uses for the money and just could not afford it. This would be a horrendous blow to British prestige but just possible. Anyone know any betting market on this possibility?
91. Agree that tariffs wont be erected, but have you noticed that the EU states have taken the position of, ‘every man for himself’, and bugger the union.
It wont happen like the last G. Depression, - nothing repeats exactly - but it will happen nethertheless.
83 benbobjim. Old model from YouGov.
Meanwhile …. two more polls on who won the 2nd debate. No surprises :
Rasmussen
McCain 28% .. Obama 45%
Gallup/USA Today
McCain 23% .. Obama 56%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/voters_say_obama_won_debate_mccain_more_prepared_to_be_president
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/10/gallup-poll-sig.html
106. Where is the Gallup tracker?
46. Yes primed I had £20 at 8/1. Was going to put on more but then the price changed!
Also, if you want to bet on an Obama landslide you are better off doing it with Boylesports (4/1 200+ victory) than ladbrokes (2.5/1 Obama 370+)
Our Great Leader goes to war. Send out the herring fleet!
We aint got no navy.
95
You can believe the IMF if you want..
The banks decided about 1990 to screw the world’s economy properly and they have succeeded very well. The LTCM fiasco of 1997 was a trial…it was successful but had no lasting impact so they went to Plan B.
91
It’s not the Governmenys I worry about. it’s the Banks and Insurance companies who are doing it..
Our Great Leader goes to war. Send out the herring fleet!
We aint got no navy.
Gordon Brown, Prime Minister
BBC News
Mr Brown criticised the Icelandic government with regards to the treatment of the deposits placed by local authorities in Icelandic banks, he declared: “What happened in Iceland is completely unacceptable.”
He said that the government was: “freezing the assets of Icelandic companies in the UK where we can.” Mr Brown said that he had spoken to the Icelandic Prime Minister, telling him that his government’s behaviour was “effectively illegal.”
The Prime Minister went on to promise that the £500bn rescue package for the banking system would not damage
public services: “I can assure patients of the NHS and mothers and fathers who send their children to school and pensioners…that this will not effect them.”
He argued that securing a stable banking system was the essential prerequisite to other action: “A sound banking system is at the essence of everything we do in our economy.” Mr Brown concluded by affirming that the action did not public service cutbacks: “We are not doing this at the expense of the health service or education, we’re doing it because it is the right thing to do to get the economy moving again.”
75 For someone who has worked in banking you do come out with some very odd statements “Barclays is the only global European bank??”
Surely Deustche and UBS would be considered global?? And if you asked the banks most of them would consdier themselves “global” operators.
109. Where’s Bjork right now? Could we get her renditioned extraordinarily by the yanks?
105. in other words, it will be a “depression” but not like the “depression”.
so what does that actually mean?
Dow down 131. Real risk it could test the 9,000 level….
97 my point exactly
92, 93. As stated above the conclusion was that it did cause unemployment. Just because this is negligible does not mean a number of jobs have not ot created and it is BS, just that it was not as bad as the scaremongers predicted. However I agree and stated above that there are intangible benefits, which probably offset the negative effect.
112. lots of people have worked in banking and don’t have a clue. that’s why we’re in the situation we’re in
108 Noisy
Definitely. I just had £100 at 4/1. My post at 101 explains why.
116. in science, when you come up with a testable theory, test it, and find that the theory was wrong, the effect you predicted did not happen, etc. you ditch the theory and try again.
it appears to be the case that in debating the NMW, you have an alternative approach, and i can’t say that i entirely agree with it.
105 Even the most pessimistic commentators aren’t predicting 25%+ unemployment, at a time when unemployment meant being just above starvation level.
114. It means exactly what it says. If you read carefuly, you may find the answer for yourself.
104 1976 was a British crsis and it was caused by a loss of confidence in UK public finances. We now have a global crisis caused by a loss of confidence in financial institutions. At the moment it seems unlikely that sterling will collapse because there are few “safer” currencies into which money could be moved. All major currencies - excepting the yen perhaps - are pretty much equally affected by institutional crises and the yen is unattractive because interest rates are so low.
Didn’t the media get a bit hysterical about the trails and tribulations that Brown had to survive through in his first months as PM blanking out 1945-2007? I think that Mike did a thread at the time which got it into perspective. We are in tough economic times, and we don’t yet know how its all going to pan out.
But, trying to invoke the wartime spirit in this way while we have troops in two war zones already is bit below the belt, especially with a PM who has been so lacking in even political courage throughout his career.
120. I think we are entering totaly uncharted territory, so past history may be meaningless in this case.
111 - Ah the old money grows on trees defence
Latest Gallup tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 52%
Yesterday - No change.
Crosstabs to follow.
124 history repeats itself. there’s not much new under the sun.
95
Well the Govt think we are in a recession… or at least McNumpty does.. oh dear.. The R word that dare not speak its name.. Just like the N word that couldnt be used.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/10/mcnulty-we-are.html
I reckon we could take out Iceland - send in th gunboats - with Kerry Katona to lead the troops!
Certainly if Labour can look to be in control of events or bringing events into control then they must look better than they have for months and so will reduce their deficit.
However, it would be difficult to believe that their own actions did not contribute to the present unhappiness even if they had had an heroic and statesmanlike record on the economy. “No more boom and bust” was a particularly unfortunate mantra. This leaves endless scope for irony in the next GE campaign and the English are famed throughout Europe for their love of irony.
COUNCIL FINANCE: As any fule kno, but apparently not the Beeb, once a year councillors are faced with an extremely lengthy and tedious paper which lists those institutions which the council is allowed/forced to put its money in. There is then a discussion as to what a particular bank used to be ect ect ect. Agreeing this paper is not optional either for councillors or councils,it is a clear diktat from DCLG or whatever it calls itself this week. Most councils will have a broad portfolio. Ibelieve the council of which I am a member has money in five countries, all but one in the EU. So, it will not be enough to declare war on Iceland.
One issue which will arise is that as the banks are merged as has happened some councils could come into a situation where they will have too great a proportion of their assets in one newly merged bank.
Labour has been in electoral decline since 2001 and only got a Parliamentary majority in 2005 on 35% of the vote owing to the way votes stacked up in individual constituencies.
The blue crossed above the red line three years ago having been trending towards doing so for quite some time previously.
Aside from the Broon bounce of last year, when people gave him the benefit the doubt for unquestionably being Not Blair, nothing’s changed, and presiding over a fiscal catastrophe isn’t going to rehabilitate Labour any time soon IMHO.
I say this as a Tory who doesn’t actually think this stuff is Labour’s fault. They are having to deal with something they didn’t wholly create, but they do deserve censure for failing to mitigate it. And also I guess for lyingly claiming the credit bubble was genuine prosperity and trying to claim credit for having engineered it.
108. 8/1 was a great price, no i won’t be backing the landslide, think it will be tighter in the end up…….i reckon there will be value in backing the reps in some of the swing states where the polls show a dem lead, just need to choose them!
I hope our mental PM isn’t thinking of having a Falklands moment, start a war with Iceland, then sweep to victory in a snap election on the back of it
Can imagine Alistair Campbell and Mandy, are working on the scripts right now
119 But with all economic theories they are difficult to prove as you cannot run 2 parallel economies at the same time. So don;t come up with the scientific theory line!!
I agree with NMW as a policy, as it values work, and should equate to a living wage. It is just stupid to argue that it created employment because employment went up. It has to have a negative effect (yet negligible) on employment numbers.
In the Falklands metaphor Brown is Galtieri - desperate dictator trying to win an unwinnable war (on the economy) to shore up support.
Glenrothes is the Belgrano.
129 Gordon Brown: Give us our money back!
Iceland: Shan’t!!
Gordon: Don’t make me threaten you! I would hate to have the chance for a “Falklands Moment”….
Iceland: Really? Meet my mate Vladimir…..
131 hear hear.
New American Research Group polls :
Minnesota
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
Missouri
McCain 49% .. Obama 46%
Montana
McCain 50% .. Obama 45%
New Hampshire
McCain 43% .. Obama 52%
Ohio
McCain 45% .. Obama 48%
Texas
McCain 57% .. Obama 38%
West Virginia
McCain 42% .. Obama 50% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
132 Hmmm…not so sure, Primed.
Just been playing a little imaginary game, trying to guess which are the next States to go blue. Now let me see…
Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Texas….in that order.
Of course, McCain could always stage a comeback…..
Link to the Gallup tracker :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111052/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-41.aspx
139 Aaaaaaaarrrrrrrrggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!
re 100. I don’t seem to recall that happening in October 2007.
If you want to quote polling “facts” please ensure that there is at least a grain of truth there.
I have no idea why ARG bother to publish polls at all - the figures are way off what every one else is printing - especially in MN which has firmed to blue in the past polls - every time I see ARG by a poll I too go AAAAAARRRRRGHHHHHHH
There obviously will be some benefit to Labour but the real question is will Gordon have the minerals to take advantage of it. When the polls get to level pegging or even show a Labour lead will he pull the trigger for a snap election? I’d say, yes, he will.
Almost heaven, West Virginia….
#118 lots of people have worked in banking and don’t have a clue. that’s why we’re in the situation we’re in
Substitute government for banking, and the statement is also true.
145 “will he pull the trigger for a snap election? I’d say, yes, he will.”
Well, as Mandy recently said that Gordon would go on the last date legally possible - almost certainly!
does anyone know why ARG are so bad?
Jack is that West Virginia poll for real or is there something dodgy in the methodology?
Recent swings on the spread markets simply make buying Conservative seats/selling Labour ones even better value! I simply can’t see any way back for Labour. For getting to 30% in the polls to be regarded as some sort of achievement or recovery, when the Conservatives are in the mid-40s, is bizarre. The public will not reward Labour at the next election, even if (and I’m not sure if this is right) Gordon is regarded as the best person to handle the current crisis.
I think we need to cast our minds ahead to Spring 2010. Obama will have been president for more than a year, demonstrating a change in America, and this country will be clamouring for a fresh approach and a new leader to sort out the wrecked economy, the rising unemployment and inflation. Any ‘recovery’ in Labour’s position short-term, demonstrated for instance by a poll giving them 34% and the Cons 40%, would provide an outstanding ‘buy’ opportunity for Con seats, IMHO.
Do we really imagine that the alternative scenario is a McCain presidency and Brown being re-elected?? (Not that the two are really connected - just trying to envisage the future).
‘Deposit guarantee to be extended to more banks’
The guarantee was initially supposed to only cover the six Irish-owned banks and building societies.
However, concerns were expressed that the move could breach EU competition laws.
Mr Lenihan has now confirmed that the guarantee will be available to a number of foreign-owned banks - Ulster Bank, First Active, Halifax Bank of Scotland, IIB Bank and Postbank.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/breaking-news/ireland/business/deposit-guarantee-to-be-extended-to-more-banks-13996435.html
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/09/business/punt.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7661252.stm
151. Alternatively, Obama’s elected and the economy’s not picked up would that work against Cameron?
Reader’s poll in tonight’s Evening Standard (down the bottom of the front page) “Has the bail-out restored your faith in Gordon Brown?”
It was running at 65% ‘no’ when I voted.
153. Helps Cameron even more, I reckon. One of the reasons McCain’s doing so badly is the economy…
We’re starting to get a clearer picture of how it is that Democratic new voter registrations have been so completely swamping Republican new voter registrations, particularly in swing states. This isn’t just a matter of a general trend favoring Democrats, but rather a symptom of massive voter registration fraud perpetrated by ACORN, an Obama-friendly group whose Nevada offices were just raided by the FBI. This article lists some disturbing details about their activities, worthy of other “democracies” like Zimbabwe:
http://ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=308358130652174
‘Inquiry into defeat of Lisbon Treaty to report in two months’
Terms of reference for the body, a subcommittee of the Oireachtas’s European Affairs Committee, ask that it “contribute to an open, comprehensive and sincere debate on Ireland’s future relationship with the EU”.
Sinn Féin’s Senator Pearse Doherty said the terms were deliberately intended “to prepare the ground for a rerun of the Lisbon Treaty referendum”.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1009/1223445618103.html
‘Rescuing the Lisbon treaty’
By Andrew Duff, MEP
“Ireland’s beleaguered government made great play of mounting yet another survey of public opinion to find out why the naysayers won. In fact this poll, conducted by Millward Brown IMS, added very little to what close observers of the referendum campaign, supplemented by Eurobarometer polls, already knew. IMS began their survey in July, by which time a certain sobering up had taken place. The most interesting feature of the IMS inquiry is that as many as 20 per cent of the 862,415 people who voted No were ready to concede that the result had weakened Ireland’s position. Much now rests on the political evolution of that chastened 20 per cent.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ec143d8-95e5-11dd-9dce-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=70662e7c-3027-11da-ba9f-00000e2511c8.html
‘Lisbon signature is solemn promise, ex-commissioner says’
“Signing the treaty is the most solemn thing that states can do. It’s a commitment to the other states. The ratification process is not at will, it is an obligation,” said the former industry commissioner who served in Brussels from 1977 to 1984.
“I find it unacceptable that a government that has committed to other governments in good faith that it would carry this [ratification] out, why then is this the only case when a government does not resign [if it fails]? It is not acceptable.”
http://euobserver.com/18/26900
‘MEPs make EU anthem, flag obligatory at Euro-Parliament’
http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/1223551923.3
150 Galloglass. The crosstabs, such as they are, are accurate. The party id is accurate. WV had had a tendency to vote (conservative)Dem locally and GOP nationally. That said most recent polling has had the state around mid single digits for McCain. Even allowing for the MoE this looks like an outlier, however nice for Obama.
Nevertheless watch for ad spends and visits to the state - The Clintons perhaps ??
Meanwhile ….
Latest Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 38% .. Obama 51%
Yesterday M-38/O-50.
Link to follow.
139. Some decent polls there for McCain apart from West Virginia! Ohio and Minnesota look like they are still in play. Perhaps talk of an Obama landslide is a little premature. My current prediction is 348 for Obama and 190 for McCain but I wouldn’t be surprised if the race tightens over the coming weeks.
139. Some decent polls there for McCain apart from West Virginia! Ohio and Minnesota look like they are still in play. Perhaps talk of an Obama landslide is a little premature. My current prediction is 348 for Obama and 190 for McCain but I wouldn’t be surprised if the race tightens over the coming weeks.
The benefit for Labour, if any, will be very short-lived. As soon as David Cameron thinks it time, he will unleish the dogs of war on Brown, especially given Brown’s inability to prevent himself trying to score points at the end of PMQs.
Separately Sc LibDem leader calling for HBOS to abandon the Lloyds deal since no longer required.
A fortnight ago, the prime minister was considered to be useless.
Then we get a financial crisis, for which he was mainly responsible.
Result? he’s the man to steer us to safety.
Can someone enlighten me?
160. Is there an official definition of a landslide?
140. just a feeling i have i suppose - that dems may be short odds on in some states where the poll leads are not far beyond the MoE….just a thought that there may be some value to be had….
162. Quite. I refer you to the answer I gave earlier (151)
158 Thanks for that Jack. Unless the odds are especially favourable I’ll put my money on a Georgia win for Obama as I don’t really think an northern intellectual is going to get much traction in W.Va come election day.
I know Mike used to have a betting positiom based on the number of times Cameron featured on the BBC website; it was supposed to be an indication of the amount of time he was in the news.
It wouldn’t work these days.
He is always on ITV news and never on the BBC.
“Brian Taylor blogs on all the action from first minister’s questions:”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/10/money_money_money_2.html
This Iceland thing is the key, if the councils have to cut back on services then Brown is going to take it in the neck. Brown has made a big mistake over the Iceland problems as they now have a £1 billion gun held against his head.
156. Oops! This could (should) cause ructions.
I’d expect a whole new batch of attack ads based on this news.
Call to ‘redefine’ prince’s role
The role of the Prince of Wales should be redefined, according to the Assembly’s presiding officer.
Lord Elis-Thomas said the pomp and ceremony seen at the investiture in 1969 should be not be repeated if there was to be an investiture of Prince William.
He said past investitures had been used as political stunts.
“I think the days of such stunts are over,” he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/wales_politics/7661270.stm
157 - posting Andrew Duff articles is incendiary stuff on here, don’t you know? seanT will be seething…
162. I think it really has been clear for a long while that Brown is useless. That BBC PM ranking thing (I know it was totally unscientific etc) had 25000 people saying he was so. What i think has changed in the last couple of weeks is that #1 the opposition paries don’t have enough information to make any sort of an opposing argument, and #2 (very surprisingly) the chancellor is actually looking ok.
172. Aaron
Oh yes, I know!
I suspect that SeanT’s ‘blood pressure’ problem has more to do with his lifestyle than with current affairs. However, it is always a chortle to give him a wee prod now and again…
153. How? That plays into a change isn’t the answer message, which’d surely work against Cameron
161.
“he will unleish the dogs of war on Brown”
Chihuahua Osborne, poodle Gove. . . . . . .
Is it a coincidence?
Conservative councils affected by Icelandic bank failure - prominent statements on their websites.
Labour councils affected - no visible statements.
Disclaimer: this is based on sampling a small number and may be completely inaccurate.
162. People believe what they’re told. For the past decade they’ve had “Brown is good on the economy” hammered at them, it’s too reinforced to change overnight.
175. No - I think it plays into a change IS the answer message!
139.
Almost heaven………..
“West Virginia
McCain 42% .. Obama 50% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
55. Baskerville - “Mike, I fear you are misleading people here. The SpreadFair prices have hardly moved since the weekend. The Labour buy price has moved from 235 to 237, and the Conservative buy price has moved from 351 down to 350.4. That could hardly be called a major change. Most of this is profit taking.”
Agreed, when I looked at the figures I wondered what on earth Mike was talking about.
Spreadfair:
Con 346.0 - 347.7
Lab 233.0 - 237.0
LD 43.8 - 47.5
SNP 13.1 - 17.0
PC 3.0 - 4.9
(NI=18 seats)
Next HoC = 650 seats
….Duncan the miniature snitzu.
177- blatantly not true- Neath Port Talbot (Labour led) has £20 million stored up.
182 Icarus. Damn keyboard eh ?? …. so close to the “n”
Would nuking Iceland be seen as over the top???
PtP - My order would be Indiana, Georgia, Montana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Texas.
The last two credible polls of WV (Rasmussen and CNN) gave McCain leads of 8 and 4 points. That is with GA, MT, ND, TX. Until Bush Jr. Democrats won WV at a Presidential level (Dukakis won by 5 while going down nationally by 8, Carter won by 4 while losing to Reagan). The reason for it possibly going for Obama is the economy. Economics might trump values and racism.
If the result itself looks an easy Obama win results in WV and TX will be quite interesting. If Obama wins WV then it will really send a message about racial progress in the US. The GOP have been boosted in TX by having someone on the Presidential ticket for over 20 years. That, combined with the changing Demographics, should see it trend Democratic. In the medium term it could become a swing state if (a very big if) Hispanics become solid Dem voters. That would harm the Republicans severely in the electoral college.
183 - I didn’t say they weren’t affected. I said that they didn’t have any statements on their website!
Have I entered a parallel universe, was Gordon Brown smiling when he responded to the question about the UK organisations being effected by the Icelandic banking? Bizarre and totally misplaced.
Every day Brown is in power he just seems to get more farcical. I think I need to recap on Brown’s history.
He becomes chancellor sticks to tory spending plans and due to that is quite prudent with money.
He then goes his own way and splurges trillions in largely pointless expenditure including lots of off balance sheet stuff which future generations will be paying off long after Brown himself is dead and buried.
Meanwhile he claims an end to boom and bust encouraging people to run up horrendous debt.
He creates ineffective financial regulation and boasts that Britain is the financial centre of the world.
Finally he advises Charities and councils to invest in unsafe foreign banks.
Now due to this monumentally poor judgement and incompetence we have a part nationalised Financial sector potentially costing £500,000,000,000
and now the idiot starts a war of words with Iceland, of course remembering we are in two real wars and all our success at standing up to Russia over the last year as well as the selling off of the navy I am sure threating Iceland is going to work really well.
169. It’s not £1 billion that the Icelandic government owe. More like £3b. £700m to councils and other local bodies. 300,000 people ha
Stars and Stripes - you’d better post 156 again, I think some of the Obama fans may have developed a blind spot.
Not at all conversant with US electoral law, so I’d be appreciative of possible actions and consequences. For example, if the candidate’s HQ were to be shown to be involved in this, could it result in his disqualification?
I dont understand why Gordon Brown doesn’t just send Ed Balls and Hazel Blears into every branch they have in the UK and pee in their freezers
I must confess that Brown certainly hasn’t done much for diplomacy by using anti-terrorist legislation to put pressure on a fellow NATO member over a banking issue. But then again George Bush has been using anti-terrorism law to insist British subjects are extradited to the US in respect of matters which have nothing to do with terrorism either.
Is it me, or do the spreads seem to shift more readily towards Labour (or a hung Parliament) than to the Tories (or significant Tory victory next time)?
Not a spread better, just a slight pattern I think I’ve noticed.
oops…
If 300k people had icesave accounts. Say average deposit conservatively was £10k, this works out at £3b on its own. This disregards all corporate savings and all private savings in other Icelandic banks.
So we’re now at loggerheads with Iceland?
195, which has joined North Korea and Iran on the Axis of Evil.
Is this going to be Cod Wars V.2?
I assume our exalted Leader thought what effect his cackhanded behaviour towards the Icelandic Government might have on the assorted major high street chains into which Icelandic banks and other institutions had invested heavily.
“Sorry madam you cannot buy that skirt because Prime Minister Brown has frozen all Icelandic assets and actually this department store is owned by an Icelandic bank”.
156- 191- The most amazing fact is that in some states you can vote without any kind of ID. I cannot see how that does not lead to massive fraud.
Also a quick scan of this and last thread seems to show some criticism for councils for not moving their money faster…
I know for a fact of at least two cases where savings were in form of fixed term bonds.
If you look down the list of councils that have been stung you have some of the authorities with the very best records for treasury management. These authorities and officers are beyond reproach in this situation.
McCain can win the US election now by committing 2,000,000 US troops to Greenland - ready for the invasion of iceland!!!
199 I can vote in UK without any form of ID and I am on the voters roll because they take my word I am a UK citizen resident at this address.
Now that we are into October, any day now the pre-Christmas adverts will be starting. Can just imagine the confusion on the faces of the Coronation St/Eastenders fraternity who show no interest in politics when we start seeing the frozen food ads with the tag “Mum shops as Iceland”. They will be wondering why their councils have banked lots of money with a frozen food company.
Iceland defaults on repaying vast sums of UK money and you want… what?
156 - Come on SaS. These are isolated incidences not systematic fraud. There are bad apples in all professions (medical, financial legal etc.) It doesn’t invalidate everyone. Millions have been registered in voter registration drives and only a tiny fraction of that has been fraudulent. Most cases are paid workers trying to meet targets. This means bogus voters don’t end up voting. There are hardly any proven cases of ineligible votes being counted. There is no mass conspiracy/
198.Yesterday Brown was ready to pour billions of taxpayers money into the Banking system, today he seems to be sticking two fingers up at any calls for help to local authorities, charities and even the police. Have I got this correctly?
I remember the Western Isles disaster very well because a friends Dad was a councillor there during the crisis, I cannot remember the political make-up of that council at the time because it did not seem pertinent to what was, simple bad luck.
201 Ave It he could appoint Governor Palin as General in charge as she knows lots about large frozen wastelands and the population of Iceland is similar to the population of Alaska. It would keep her out of the way to give him a sporting chance in the next 4 weeks.
199 - As Ted points out we have this here. The simple reason it does not lead to mass fraud is that it would take massive organisation. You would have to have large numbers of people touring polling stations, making detection highly likely. Plus the consequences for those participating would be severe.
for the benefit of “A View from Cumbria” about an hour ago…….
neither Cumbria County Council not South Lakeland District Council have any deposits in Icelandic Banks.
So……..you are a Councillor……come on, out yourself….if it is you, David, you are a big enough boy…..and I promise not to mention where your scar is located!
206 Christina, the Western Isles was and remains fiercely Independent and when they lost £21 million they just had to get on with it.
189. Every day Brown is in power he just seems to get more farcical. I think I need to recap on Brown’s history.
I think that Brown is a tragedy foisted on the UK by a PLP bent on destroying us all. It’s not only farcical, it’s Fascistic.
The taking over of the banks and saying that “they”, -whover ‘they’ are- must be punished has all the hallmarks of the beginning of a Fascist Government.
200 - Although the best council in the country didn’t have a penny there.
209 Ian Stewart, you cannot give big hints and then not tell us all, where is his scar and in what circumstances did you see it?
Latest ARSE (BUTT)/Daily FAB tracker :
McCain 43.3% .. Obama 50.2%
Note - Yesterday M-43.2/O-49.9
……………………….
ARSE (BUTT) sponsored by the Daily Felines Adore Broxtowe.
In Utah a lone Obama supporter is lost in hostile McCain territory !!
http://www.funnymos.com/funny-photos/cat.jpg
Donate to :
http://www.cats.org.uk/
Can I just check:
Which of the following are odds on for Obama and which McCain on Betfair: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Georgia, Texas, Montana?
If someone could let me know sharpish, I’d be grateful.
Cheers,
Morus
Look for the United Kingdom? The Scandanavia countries (ex Iceland) are not too far down the list
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html
212. Yes but I think that’s luck not judgement. Do you disagree?
And to be fair i’m not sure how you judge which countries are “good at Treasury Management”. Well run and efficient, maybe, but Treasury Management is different. Treasury Management isn’t really very difficult until banks start going bust.
Agree totally about long term investments though - criticisms should be directed at those who left themselves overexposed, not those who left themselves exposed at all. What if you put £5 million in Iceland 11 months ago? The very fact that Council are encouraged to “spread risk”, rather implies that the risk exists!
217 - I don’t know. You make your own luck. There are reasons for the best councils being the best.
Apperently banks who are crap have to offer higher rates of interest to attract deposits……………anyone want a bet the UK govt has money in Iceland?
I wonder if Brown will be seizing the assets of American comanies of American banks go bust and Brits have money invested? Will e use anti-terror law then?
I see the Icelandic PM thought relations were on the rocks until Alistair Darling set the record straight - presumably telling him not to worry, we are just using Iceland’s troubles to make the PM look competent and tough.
215 - Indiana both (Obama shorter)
Missori both (McCain shorter)
NC Obama
VA Obama
MT McCain
GA McCain
TX McCain
208- Kieran
I’m sure you are right regarding national elections but as for local races…
In Paris, Chirac as mayor and his successor had put in place a massive system of bogus registrations and it helped them win big victories as late as 1995. This being in a country whee evry voter’s ID is checked by two independent volunteers + party observers… I cannot believe no one ever tries to abuse the system.
(Mind you I think your system of postal voting is even more crazy)
189. Every day Brown is in power he just seems to get more farcical. I think I need to recap on Brown’s history.
I think that Brown is a tragedy foisted on the UK by a PLP bent on destroying us all. It’s not only farcical, it’s Fascistic.
The taking over of the banks and saying that “they”, -whover ‘they’ are- must be punished has all the hallmarks of the beginning of a Fascist Government.
by weathercock October 9th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
before closing tonight:
Repeating the above because I think its important.
Will DOW crash through 8000 barrier tonight or tomorrow?
207 - brilliant! And the Palin coould become Pres in 2012 and 2016!!!
216.
Bloomin heck. That list is utterly, utterly shocking.
156 The other side of the ACORN story - Republican dirty tricks?
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/8/11301/3183/276/623147
222 - Cheers, Kieran. You’re a star.
New Rasmussen polls
NC: Obama 50 McCain 47
IN: McCain 49 Obama 47
NJ: Obama 55 McCain 42
224- You mean the 9000 barrier presumably?
The 8000 line is still 1100 points away (or 12%)…
‘Scottish councils to call for scrapping of Alex Salmond’s ‘historic’ concordat’
The subsequent revolt was a major embarrassment for Pat Watters, the Cosla president and Labour councillor, who negotiated the deal.
He has called an “emergency powers” meeting in Edinburgh on Friday of the body’s leadership board, which comprises about a dozen senior councillors, including his presidential team and Cosla’s political group leaders.
In a letter to all council leaders, Mr Watters wrote: “I want leaders to be in no doubt that the political consequences of this disagreement are very serious indeed. I have made it clear both publicly and privately to government that I believe the resources for this provision are included in the overall settlement and that agreement to the settlement was made in the full knowledge that free school meals was part of that financial provision.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3167056/Scottish-councils-to-call-for-scrapping-of-Alex-Salmonds-historic-concordat.html
229. Indiana seems to be coming into play then? 400+ EV’s is on for Obama.
Is the Govt spinning ahead of events, first Mc Numpty says there is going to be a recession, now Purnell..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3166706/Financial-crisis-Rising-unemployment-on-the-way-as-recession-looms.html
230. yes yr right. 9000. sorry.
233, facing reality, plus doing it now gets much less bad coverage than it usually would because everybody’s worried about the banking sector imploding.
Tis always the same Democrats look like winning the right wing media issue “voter fraud” - like above a minority problem - compared to the voter fraud committed on an institutionalized scale by the Republicans with their stop people voting campaign - on a daily basis you read how Republicans are challenging valid voters - the latest bid in Montana was smashed by a grassroots campaign - and it will be similar in other states
Under US and UK leaders (Blair, Brown, Bush) both sides of the Atlantic we have had Govt spending out of control, the housing bubble fueled, poor regulation and huge ill-thought out wars. The public need reminding, not that it would take too much, of this catastrophic failure of strategy.
Will Brown give financial help to Labouyr councils that have put money into Iceland banks and leave Tory/Lib Dem councils to survive on their own? I wouldn’t rule it out knowing him!
231. Didn’t Kezia Dugdale in her retirement interview predict that it would “fall apart spectacularly?” Must she if she knows this weekend’s Lotto numbers!
Icelands Banks= FSA= Gordons biggest joke.
Being good at treasury management means securing good yields consistent with security (don’t laugh) and liquidity. On the other side of the equation it also means, for example, debt reschduling to minimise costs of interest. I’d also, more broadly take it to mean sensible use of prudential borrowing where private finance is more common and other . I don’t have direct experience though and maybe I’m taking too broad a definition.
210.”206 Christina, the Western Isles was and remains fiercely Independent and when they lost £21 million they just had to get on with it.”
Easterross, the fallout of that lingered for a while locally in that area, but I think that Brown’s reaction today, just after the announcement of that package for the Financial sector yesterday makes it more politically toxic for Westminster. It just looked very tactless, and did anyone else see what appear to be a smiling or smirking Brown on C4?
156. Who is we? Apart from that… ACORN has been problematic for a long time (i.e. similar things happened around the 2004 election). There may indeed be a case against them in Nevada.
The Democratic supporter benefit-of-doubt version of this is that it’s probably not particularly easy to register low-income voters. At any given election, there are massive problems with their registration and voting, which mostly result in them not voting. This may simply be the other side of the coin of massive black and Hispanic disenfranchisement, especially considering that ACORN most likely employs local organizers. Registering voters in rich white suburbs will of course create fewer problems.
I think the points above have some truth to them in general, but ACORN seems to be a problematic organization. Just as it is right and necessary to look very closely into why many voting machines still have no paper trail and into how minorities continue to be disenfranchised, it is necessary to take a very close look at ACORN if there is reasonable doubt about their practices.
But ACORN is not Obama’s GOTV. Are they helpful? Certainly. Is it intellectually honest to assume that increased minority turnout this year is the result of fraud? Probably not. It may just be the combination of a black candidate and an extremely sophisticated ground game. Or the fact that the GOP has tied itself to rich white Christian males.
238 - Well Tory/(libdem? - not sure) councils are generally in better positions to take the losses.
Tory councils affected have been losing proportions of their reserves. Labour councils are more likely to have been losing a proportion of their revenue budgets.
242, saw him on the BBC, I think, in a playground or suchlike. Started off grinning away, but then become more solemn toward the end of his spiel.
That joke about a bank going bust will get played over and over again.
231. So what’s the position on free school meals, then, Stuart?
Is the funding ring-fenced, or not?
239. Watcher
It is not the concordat which is falling apart, it is the Scottish Labour Party. Iain Gray has clearly decided to declare war on Pat Watters and COSLA. Wendy Alexander lost when she tried the same thing.
241 - I’m not denying your definition of good Treasury Management. I’m just questioning how you are ranking some councils as “good” at it.
247. Stuart, I thought it already had as events in Glenrothes show!!
Epic LOL at Brown. First it was America’s fault, now it is the fault of ‘technically illegal’ Iceland. When is the man going to take some responsibility?
Looks like the DOWS doing another one of its plunges. Now -207
226. Only if you think that the current account deficit is important. Where would you rather live - PRC/Saudi v UK/US? Hell, if the Saudis ever asked for their money back we could just invade, reclaim our oil that they have been squatting on, sequestrating any inconvenient population in the Hijaz as necessary. Added benefit of having China by the throat in that scenario as well.
I wait with bated breath to see what Richmondshire ‘Queen of Rotten Boroughs’ District Council has lost in this farce. Doubtless my bin will be collected one a month now.
when does the Fleet sail for Icelandic waters?
250
meanwhile Gordo thinks it all a lot of fun
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/pmlaughing_203pa.jpg
241 - i doubt the best councils do much borrowing at all.
I think you also missed, dramatically reducing their exposure to risk in a highly uncertain financial climate.
QT should be good, got Ken Clarke on it. Denham bats for Labour, Huhne for the Lib Dems.
247. That’s as may be, but an answer to 246 would still be appreciated.
157. Another charming remark from Mr.Duff.
227. US politics is so predictable.
If the Democrats lose, it is down to Republican dirty tricks and electoral fraud.
If the Republicans lose, it is down to a biased media and, er, electoral fraud again it seems.
Can’t they just accept that the winner is the guy the voters think would make the best president?
242 - Christina, a normally placid Marcia screamed at the interview from her sickbed. He is making a tactical blunder. One action for Banks but nothing for local Authorities, especially when they invested in a ‘A’ rated bank at the time.
254 What fleet?
abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
McCain’s mortgage plan has been adjusted so it helps the lenders more than homeowner, apparently.
So the one clever (albeit uncosted) policy idea Macca had is already unravelling. What next from the McCain ticket? A Palin wedding on the Moon perhaps? I’m sensing game changer fatigue so even that might not help.
260. Is there any evidence whatsoever that merely being registered more than once means that someone will be able to vote more than once? This fraud story (on both sides) has been rumbling under for weeks and has never yet topped a news cycle.
226 Stuart, that list helps make Eck’s independence case. All the central european minows have much better balances than UK PLC. Though I have to say that had we already been independent we would have probably been in the same position as Iceland.
242 Christina, it took them more than a decade to get out of it. John Major’s government helped to some extent by allowing them to draw down some capital funding early.
Yes Brown was smirking but I think it is his joke last night which will come back to haunt him. When someone’s mobile phone rang during his speech he joked was the call about another bank going bust!
The SNP policies on local Govt are a joke. I’ll bet someone is having second thoughts about continuing to push “local” income tax in the light of what’s happening in Iceland. At least Darling has the option of passing the costs on to individual local taxpayers.
Under the “Local” Income tax the Govt would have no choice but to bail councils out.
262
http://www.freefoto.com/preview/2026-10-6?ffid=2026-10-6&k=Rowing+Boat
255. To him, I’m sure he’s laughing with relief. As tens of millions of pounds gop down the drain I bet Brown can’t believe his luck.
246. Alan J
Err… you know the answer to that one Alan. The answer is in the article I linked to:
Labour councillor Pat Watters, President of COSLA, is in no doubt as to the situation whatsoever:
“I have made it clear both publicly and privately to government that I believe the resources for this provision are included in the overall settlement and that agreement to the settlement was made in the full knowledge that free school meals was part of that financial provision.”
And for the government:
The First Minister’s senior special adviser dismissed the prospect of councils refusing to do so as “speculation” and argued that those that did not would have to explain why to parents.
But asked whether the concordat is binding on local authorities, he would only say: “It’s part of a partnership approach. It’s a parity of esteem.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3167056/Scottish-councils-to-call-for-scrapping-of-Alex-Salmonds-historic-concordat.html
As I say, I do not feel obliged to respond to rhetorical questions Alan. I am away to pick up my wife now and will not be responding to any further queries today.
242 Mr Brown is apparently on a tour of the country to explain the Bank Bail Out plan to us voters - strangely concentrated in politically photogenic locations. I expect quite a few schoolchildren will be photographed in proximity of our Dear Leader (assorted race, gender), nurses (probably in childrens wards), local government workers (playgrounds?) etc.
This victory tour has as it theme “Getting on with the Job, Doing Anything it Takes - and look I have saved the world”
Good at treasury management means above average yields on investments and below average costs of borrowing.
Reducing exposure to risk is the first priority. But an investment in Icelandic banks was entirely sensible until recently. Many, many investments are long-term and can’t easily be redirected.
Very many good councils use borrowings.
258. Alan J - “That’s as may be, but an answer to 246 would still be appreciated.”
Don’t be a dick Alan. I respond to queries/points in the order that I read them. You got a very, very prompt response indeed.
I see the Dow is tanking again. More than 200 points down according to SKY now
270, but it’s like a microcosm of the last 10 years. When things go well (and, to be honest, we don’t know how the 500bn will turn out…) he’s there strutting around claiming he’s responsible for everything, so everyone will blame him when everything goes badly. What will he do when we hit recession?
He’ll try and blame America, Iceland, North Korea and the Isle of Mann, obviously, but I don’t think people will care what he says.
270 - will it be in area’s where Local Authorities have lost their money in Iceland?
DOW drops under 9,000. Currently 8,963 -295!
263. McCain has now twice made well-publicized, prospectively “game changing” assaults on Obama’s character - first when Palin went after the Ayers connection on Saturday, and then with this morning’s hyped-up web ad.
I suspect that the McCain campaign would rather have kept this “dirt” on Obama as a real October surprise, to be deployed in the last fortnight of the campaign in what they hoped would be a close race. Instead, they’ve gone into last ditch mode already - even relaunching the Ayers story today in an attempt to get traction for it, and also to cover up McCain’s debate showing.
If McCain really had a trump card - a planned game changer or October surprise - I can’t help feeling he’d be playing it now. It may be that he’s bringing out the low level dirt first to test the water and halt Obama’s momentum, but I doubt it.
Any game changers McCain comes up with now will - like the bailout stunt and to a lesser extent the Palin pick - be conjured out of thin air. The campaign has no plan. It is drifting from tactic to tactic hoping to gain an extra few % and keep the race close. But as far as I can tell, there is no strategy for victory.
268. Good to see him cheery though, he was looking pretty depressed before the economy started going down the pan.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_EQc_hLHXONE/SO48VZK9j8I/AAAAAAAACYc/DJE00Xbqh9o/s1600-h/happy_brown.jpg
261. Get well soon Marcia!
Right, I really do have to pick the wife up now or else I may be in the dog’s house rather than the sick bed.
just over an hour to go. DOW now -217.59. 9040.51
276. Oh noes! There really is no remedy for this problem. Doubtless every other market will follow it down tomorrow.
266. Uh?
Whether local services are funded by people paying according to their income or according to what their house was worth in 1991 has no bearing on this one way or the other.
269. Thanks, Stuart, so the answer is fudge from both sides.
And I think you’re confusing ‘good councils’ with ‘good treasury management’. It’s entirely possible to have a council which is good at some things and bad at others - not necessarily a ‘good’ council but which at least manages it finances well.
Having large reserves (and low debt) is not a sign of good treasury management.
278, I’d rather Brown were clinically depressed than delighting in the possible collapse of the whole banking sector.
Although I dislike him, I don’t say that gleefully, but his misery weighed against the misery of millions if the whole damn thing crashes down is a no brainer.
275 Feel the sudden “Gordon Brown to Sue Iceland” headlines (note it’s not HMG that’s suing but Gordon himself) might be connected to fact that he realised he would be in areas hit.
261. Yes, it’s started already, hasn’t it? With apparently limitless funds available for banks, the queue for government handouts will just get longer and more restive as the recession bites. Lots and lots of votes to be lost this way…
@260. I would disagree. It does seem to me that the United States are facing considerable problems when it comes to the minority vote, problems we probably don’t have in Europe (it’s actually an interesting question - are we perhaps ignoring severe problems in the less affluent parts of London, Berlin-Neukölln and the Banlieues of Paris?). To put it bluntly: in some places the environment is worthy of developing countries, and the quality of democratic process probably just goes along with that.
That is something a self-respecting democracy must address. When voting regulations are overly restrictive in a pretty overt attempt to exclude minorities from voting, that is a legitimate topic. When community organizers push people into voting for their preferred candidate or use the problems at hand to generate voter records, that is also a legitimate topic.
Due to the US system, voter fraud may decide a close election in a swing state, so that’s important. Ultimately, I would say the measure of legitimacy is the popular vote. Fraud is unlikely to have a major overall effect. There was a lot of talk about fraud in 2000, and I absolutely think that was appropriate. You didn’t hear much in 2004. Bush won the popular vote. I don’t think it will be a topic in 2008. Still, that doesn’t mean it’s not important. Whether chaos helps the GOP or the Dems, the US need to make all efforts to guarantee 21st century democratic rights for all citizens.
New Ipsos/McClatchy poll indicates that after the second debate undecideds are breaking for Obama 57/43 :
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4115
Dow buckling, it’s -320, pushing 8900
S&P down over 4%
Nasdaq tanking
284. I was being sarcastic, which doesn’t really come across on the internet I suppose.
I realised why he’s happy today - he’s in charge. He’s making all the big decisions, moving the toy tanks about his lawn. What kind of man exults in his power as his country’s in such trouble? He’s totally unsuitable for his position, and he’s taking the Labour Party down. Who will defend him after the loss at the next election? Thatcher didn’t destroy her party so she still had her supporters after she went. Who’s going to defend Gordon?
282 - perhaps you had better understand the SNP “Local” income tax proposal before commenting on it.
Under the current system if a council screws up it is the council taxpayers who are the first call for funds. Under the SNP plan, a council that screws up will have no choice but to cut services or be bailed out by the Govt.
Is 6 seats a big movement?
282 Alan as a Scottish LibDem I would have thought you would have kept quiet on any issue relating to Local Government funding in Scotland. Your party has controlled Aberdeen either alone or in coaltion for more than 2 terms and as a result the LibDems have created the biggest black hole in Scottish local authority budgeting in Scotland for years. Now estimated at £75 million and Kate Dean the LibDem leader who has been there throughout since at least 2002 doesn’t think she is in anyway to blame and won’t resign.
That stupid woman and her arrogance may just cost you a couple of seats at the GE and will certainly prevent you winning Aberdeen South. You can also expect to lose its successor at Holyrood in 2011 thanks to her and her group of numpties.
287. Friedrich, it may surprise you to discover that voter fraud is also a major problem in parts of the UK as well. Oddly enough, it also frequently revolves around ethnic minorities.
a similar sell off into the close as last night would see the Dow close 7-8% off at around 8600and would inspire a tanking of the Nikkei and European markets tomorrow - even if it holds form from here or recovers a little it looks like tomorrow could be another rocky day with another ‘weekend’ to get through after that
Really rather grim. The bailouts might keep the banks afloat but to operate in a desert.
290, apologies, ’twas my mistake.
Random betting thingummybob: Betfair had a male lay value of 1.84 (so a liability less than return) for Strictly Come Dancing up recently, for those vaguely interested.
But you’re right about Brown. But not just him. The jeering jubilant socialist backbenchers were thrilled to bits at PMQs. They were cheering as the financial sector of their own country teeters on the brink.
That clip, replayed alongside the Brown joke about banks going bust, will not endear Labour to an electorate enduring recession.
287. We have had our own problems which I believe centre around minority communities. Wasn’t it in Birmingham? People are vulnerable to being manipulated if they aren’t educated. I think it was to do with registering people at different addresses, or registering pretend family members.
295 - Who knows? Perhaps the rest of the World’s stock markets will finally show some backbone and stop following the US everywhere.
156. I’d be more inclined to believe it if that article didn’t describe the group as “radical” which is right-wing-propaganda speak for anything marginally left of centre. And it was Nevada state officials that raided the offices, not the federal authorities.
298 lol, if only they had that sort of backbone.
A $700 billiob bailout, billions more for AIG and a 0.5% worldwide interest rate cut and the Dow is off 15% in a week or so - nice
The government needs to be very careful regarding the move to freeze Icelandic assets.
I’m a bit surpried Iceland has so readily defaulted because they’ve pretty much cleared a path for the IMF to walk in and the inevitable pain as they sort things out. In short this rates as a sovereign default, ie basket case situation. It suggests that Iceland is in more than serious trouble, its in a very deep hole indeed.
In making this move Brown has made a populist tactical decision that could pay dividends in the very short term, but if people start to delve what impression could it leave? That the UK exchequer hasnt got the money to cover things itself?
In addition, these things come around as well as go around. Will this be legally challenged, what if the government as it turns out was legally wrong to seize the assets, what if its disproportionate to the shortfall British savers have lost?
I just wonder have they thought it out or is this an almost totally political move that could blow up in due course.
283 - No true. But not a bad one either.
I’m just wondering how you are ranking the Treasury Management competencies of councils that have been hit by the Icelandic collapse?
296. Yup. It’s been said before, but they’ve played this really badly by celebrating their limited (very limited) bounce back at such a time. The PMQs and the jokes won’t have an effect now, but they’ll be potent when they’re replayed when times get really tough.
On Brown smiling.
To me it looks strange. It smacks of Gordon enjoying the crisis; ‘my job’s safer-so sod your’s.
But to some it may look confident.
Apparently the betting markets [and Mike] think the later.
299. The article also suggests they are illegally registering felons in Florida, when I believe that is a legal thing to do since Crist’s reforms.
301. To my mind the real story is the use of the so called anti-terror legislation. Yet again it is shown thst it was all about increasing the power of the state across the board. I hope the Tories remove much if this legislation when/if they get in, but I’m not getting my hopes up. The Iceland chap was damn right to complain about being treated like a terrorist.
261.”242 - Christina, a normally placid Marcia screamed at the interview from her sickbed. He is making a tactical blunder. One action for Banks but nothing for local Authorities, especially when they invested in a ‘A’ rated bank at the time.”
Edmund, that’s just what I thought. As I posted earlier, I got regular updates about the difficulties with the Western Isles for a long time after the big headlines were forgotten. One friends Dad was on the council, while I had a couple of other close friends who hailed from there too.
But, this time its totally different, and he could not see or seem to comprehend just how tactless and out of step his response was tonight on C4 after yesterdays announcements with suitable points made to support this. Honestly, my jaw hit the floor before I started shouting at the telly.
Hope Marcia is on the mend.
304 - I tend to agree that it is a little odd to see someone enjoying the crisis. Although it remains to be seen what the electoral impact will be, I think we need to get beyond the crisis first.
Dow below 8,900 - down 400 points
Sorry about my typing.
I split coffee on my keyboard and now random messages pop up and it keeps freezing. I rush the typing whilst its behaving - which isn’t often.
306 absolutely - Iceland’s economy is falling apart at the seams, Brown is only interested in picking up odd votes here and there like a maniac.
Proffering his unproven rescue package around the world like a restorative tonic salesman is also evidential of the vote grab.
297 Thomas yes weren’t 6 councillors prosecuted for inventing about 30 cousins all living in the same 3 bedroom terraced house?
Sadly there are people who try and fiddle the polls before anyone votes across the political spectrum and all are equally bad, left or right.
The one thing which everyone except the Government seems to accept is that their obsession with using postal votes to drive up voter turn-out is the single biggest risk of election fraud in the UK. In any event I suspect at the GE we will see the turnout soar to around the 75%+ levels we used to see and it wouldn’t surprise me if David Cameron achieves close to the 14 million + which John Major achieved in 1992, the highest ever vote for a government party.
I hope one positive thing which comes out of this banking disaster is that people turn again to Building Societies and Credit Unions because these institutions dont pay the nonsense salaries the banks and other financial institutions have been over recent years.
It was interesting to hear Platini this morning say he plans to take steps to curb the excessive spending and borrowing of Premiership football teams. It will be good to see footballers getting paid what they are worth, around £5.73 per hour
On a more serious note, just which major UK chain stores are substantially owned or funded by the now in difficulty Icelandic banks? Could this result in an additionally whamy on the High St?
Dow has lost 40% of its value in a year (today is the first anniversary of its record high).
just looked dow down 380
DOW = 150 tomorrow!!!
315. But what of the FTSE Ave it?
I assume the ig figure for the FTSE is anticipated opening, if so its down 170
I don’t see why people have taken this joke so seriously. If Cameron had done the same, I’d have thought the same, it was fairly amusing, and hasn’t hurt anyone.
314 down 415 now
Going to be another 5-7% fall today - the slow motion crash goes on but this is for certain a very severe crash - which is compeltely unfazed by 0.5% off interest rates taking US rates to 1.5%!!
291. Under the current system, council tax is frozen for 3 years, so the tax payers cannot be called upon, and the central grants are decided by the SNP government.
So the system is the same either way, reduce spending or get more from the centre.
(I favour genuine LIT, by the way, where the local voters, not the central government, sets the rate).
308 I agree. People don’t want to feel scared. And if he looks comfortable, it may be reassuring.
Alot of people still don’t think the recession will affect them directly, according to the latest polling, which is odd bearing how debt ridden many are.
But when the real ecomony is affected, he will have to sober up.
I wonder if the media narrative will change again. He got a rough ride at his last morning press conference.
They used anti-terror legislation? Is that really true? The European left really have lost all sense of respect for the voters haven’t they? What once they valued as the powerful proletariat they now think of as thick plebs to be manipulated whilst the government accumulates power to act as it really wants to on the quiet.
Dow just gone under 8800!
Dow sub 8,800 level. Bloomberg: “dropping like a lead zeppelin”
318, the joke in itself was alright, the fact that it was the Prime Minister, jesting and giggling as the financial sector teeters on the brink is what makes it wrong.
318 There’s nothing amusing about banks going under Charlie - it involves people losing their jobs and homes and uncertainty and fear for its customers. More to the point its simply inappropriate for the PM to joke about it in the teeth of a crisis - it might raise a worthy titter on the after dinner circuit in 10 years time though.
Thats how I see it anyway
Dow down 500….
Dow off 500
312. On the football thing, one of the reservations I’ve always had about the free market is its effect on sport; cricket and football have both had problems with the number of foreign players driving down the opportunities for home grown talent and have chased money to the detriment of sportsmanship on and off the field. I was glad to see Platini wanted to change the rules. The ECB have been lobbying for changes too. Perhaps this crisis will shove the EU back from the ever further integration thing and to a sensible compromise between freedom of movement and respect for national boundaries. It would be nice.
I also agree that turnout will likely rise as people who are naturally Tory but haven’t voted for them return. I am one of them!
Dow down below 8700
Dow under 8700!
Dow is crashing - stock is being dumped at an alarming rate
-570……
318. It just feels a little bit like that ghastly picture where Brown sat in the back of his official car smiling and laughing while he and his supporters were forcing Tony Blair to announce when he’s be resigning. Theres just something about Brown when he smiles that looks devious and manipulative. When Cameron smiles he just looks like a someone smiling, when Brown smiles you wonder what the devious one is cooking up now!
Is the Dow slumping due to the GM downgrading, or are people just jumping ship?
327. I thought you were treating us to a few bars of Quo, there?
(Dow down, deeper and down,
Dow down, deeper and down,
I want all the world to see,
see how you’ve stopped my liq-uid-it-eee ..)
331 Maybe they have heard a rumour they might be adopting Brown’s plan!
334 a little from column a, a little from column b!
I think the potential downgrade has set it off though
334 One feeding the other General Motors worth less than $3 billion - Mattel (toy car maker) worth $5 billion. Weird world….
Dow down 600!!
Down 600!
Down down 600 points
They are all worried about tomorrow’s insurance announcements about Lehman’s
301. Yes - it is political, and risky. And smacks of bullying as well - no surprise there.
323. The Fed will have to start buying equities next
339 641…….
incredible dow meltdown!!!!!!!!!!!
Testing the 8600 level…
318. Quite a few good bank jokes on five live yesterday:
The Origami bank of Japan has folded
The Lapdancing Bank has gone bust
The bank of Iceland has had its assets frozen
The Harri Karri bank has crashed
The Sumo bank has gone belly up
Shares in Kamikazee bank have nose dived
Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches
Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song
Samurai Bank are soldiering on following sharp cutbacks
Ninja Bank are reported to have taken a hit, but they remain in the black
500 staff at Karate Bank for the chop
Analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.
347 - The third line is no longer a joke!
347.
PS the second one is mine……
318. It’s not a crime or anything, but do you really think this is a time for that kind of levity from the leader? In public? It’s pretty serious right now. If he was prone to jokes it might just come across as tasteless in a slightly rogueish way. As it is, with his usual demeanour, it looks wrong. I think it’s going to be replayed when/if things get a lot worse and it’ll look bad in the light of those circumstances.
If Brown is listening to In Business on Radio 4 he’ll call the election ASAP.
338- They were saying on CNBC earlier that GM hasn’t been at these prices since the 1950’s when a car would cost $3000.
Truly scary times.
351 why? glowing praise?
318 Charlie - it was a good joke if it had been in Number 10 or the Treasury with stressed staff where it would have been a stress reliever. But in public with 300,000 people worried about their savings in Icebank, Stock Markets on the brink?
352. Some fabulous bargains appearing now though. Time to start quietly picking some stuff up as this week’s moves look like an exhaustive capitulation sell-off.
Dow rallying big time… weird!
349. It’s only half yours - they gave the punchline but not the set up.
356- The explanation is in post 355.
Seems as if they are putting a positive spurt on before the finish. I expect that it will finish down -450.
318 Charlie I agree the joke was funny and first time I heard it I laughed. I loathe Brown but I think it betrayed a moment of genuine relief as he wasn’t being expected to deal with another crisis (much of which is of his own making though clearly not all). The man looks understandably knackered and frankly right now I would not be wanting to do his job.
However this evening on the TV news I watched as a couple were interviewed the day before they are due to court to have their home repossessed. It looked like a lovely big house, not my personal taste but clearly all they have ever aspired to. The husband is a builder who was doing well until the housebuilding industry virtually stopped dead several months ago and now he cannot get any work and as a self employed person, he wont get any help from the state to pay his mortgage interest and is probably excluded from any mortgage protection scheme as almost all such policies exclude self employed people.
The statistics on bankruptcies and repossessions is soon going to eclipse anything which happened under the last Tory government. In June 300,000 households were at least 3 months in arrears according to the statistics on the evening news. A Manchester lawyer explained that divorces and other civil litigation is being binned by the courts because they are needing all the spare court time to deal with repossessions!! It is in this context I think Gordon Brown will live to regret that off the cuff joke last night. I also agree it would be equally inappropriate if either David Cameron or Nick Clegg said it, but of course they didn’t!
DOW coming back!!!
Bull market!!!!!
big rally into the bell - 444 down ‘only’ now
362 - Dropping again…
One postive, crude oil is down 5%.
now its 500 - sell sell sell! panic!
Vix hit 60 today - that is an insane level of volatility
INSANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
333 I agree. But we are Tories.
On that occasion and subsequently [in Parliament when they were grinning about the IHT announcement] there was a negative take in the press.
This hasn’t happened yet - apart from Bradby and it related to the party rather than Brown.
Most who are as yet unaffected probably won’t bother.
A friend’s best friend lost his job today. Those people will react differently.
Anecdote alert: My brother was a Tory and a mining engineer. He hasn’t voted Tory since he saw Heseltine smiling during an exchange in the Commons about the future of the mines.
365 - 60 is the highest VIX ever recorded
191- Sorry b, I’ve been away for a while. I doubt the Obama campaign is foolish enough to have any demonstrable connections to ACORN’s systematic fraudulent activities. They will be content to benefit from it from afar.
Frankly, my concerns about civil liberties will be hightened, not assuaged, by an Obama victory. Chipping away at the value of my vote through fraud is only one way in which the assault on civil liberties takes place. Another example would be the Obama campaign calling on Missouri law enforcement officials to crack down on those who, in their subjective opinion, “lie” about Obama (n.b., no indication that they should crack down on McCain critics). This is the sort of thing worthy of totalitarian regimes that chill free speech through vague threats of retaliation against critics. The obliviousness of most Obama supporters to these offenses, particularly in light of their civil liberty vigilance during the Bush administration, is a blind spot indeed, as you have properly characterized it.
By the way, there is a funny but disturbing vignette available at Drudge (sorry, can’t link to it from here) from a radio interview with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who suggests that anyone criticizing Obama’s association with a former head of a major U.S. mortgage lender (Fannie Mae) must necessarily be a racist. Hold on to your hats, Obama critics, you may be in for a rough ride once he’s President, whether you’re being denounced as a racist or pursued by law enforcement for your “lies.”
Closing bell and it was dropping heavily…
368 it certainly is - madness!
up 34
301.”I just wonder have they thought it out or is this an almost totally political move that could blow up in due course.”
Short term tactics for that headline today, with no thought of the future consequences. And despite the perception that it was Blair that worried about looking good in the press, the one who did was actually Gordon. Blair had a natural instinct and confidence that did not need that constant reassurance.
New Rasmussen poll for Michigan :
McCain 40% .. Obama 56%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election
Dow back through the -600 in post bell sales
With Ford and GM being hit so hard, are we likely to see job lay offs before the election? If so what states will that affect? Is it highly likely that those states affected will trend Democratic?
New Rasmussen poll for New Jersey :
McCain 42% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_presidential_election
Dow still going down after hours -645 - off c.7%. Bloodbath in Asia tomorrow morning, spilling over to Europe no doubt.
What is Plan B, Gordon?
Once again regarding the ACORN “scandal”, very interesting post on Politico:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Two_kinds_of_fraud.html?showall
The key sentences is: “The key distinction here is between voter fraud and voter registration fraud, one of which is truly dangerous, the other a petty crime.” and “The current stories about Acorn don’t even allege a plan to affect the November vote.”
In short, ACORN may have registered too many people to vote because they paid their contractors on a per-signature basis (which explains why this happens again and again). To affect the Nov 4 election, those listed would actually have to turn up to vote. Now, there is no indication that ACORN is producing fake ids or buses people around or bribes election officials. This story has no legs.
Not all stocks have closed yet.
wow, its lost 200 points since post 362
re 369. I think this works both ways - just see this article which is scary.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Can-the-GOP-Steal-The-Elec-by-Ernest-Partridge-081008-638.html
Dow under 8600!!
But I thought Brown had saved the world. On this occasion, I wish I’d been right.
378 Gordo will still be smiling. He thinks the worse it is the better for him. He is of course deluded.
Dow below 8,600 - these close of business slides have been vicious.
Dow now under 8600 - session low -659 points, over a 7% fall
Dow Futures for Friday
-525 = eek!
381 Perhaps if we all stopped posting, the markets would be fine?
379 friedrich
“Now, there is no indication that ACORN is producing fake ids.”
No IDs necessary to vote in Nevada, so whoever goes to a polling station can use one of these fake registrations
White House race thread set to be published at 2200
For those of us who don’t usually follow the markets, how significant is this fall? How unusual?
389 you mean ignore it until it behaves?
Brilliant, I like it
Stock markets fall and stock markets rise. The point of Wednesday was to save the banks.
When its Ireland its unilateral action.
On Iceland, Brown will be protrayed as standing up for British interests.
It will take an intelligent and enquiring media to ask if he made things worse.
So that’s down to Bradby then.
It’s all about the lehmann CDOs tomorrow though, isn’t it? Nobody knows who’s going to win or lose and nobody wants to take the chance of the latter.
389. Beyond personal self gratification what is the point of repeatedly posting what the Dow is doing? Anybody who is interested can go and look at the Bloomberg web site.
382. Very amusing.
388 - Wasn’t that the DOW futures for Thursday’s close?
397. I cannot speak for others but I appreciate the updates which are ahead of the BBC ticker.
392 - Significant and unusual… these sorts of drops don’t happen usually without a recogniseable calamity somewhere!
392- thomas
A 7% fall on the seventh consecutive day of stock market falling (in itself a very rare event) is highly unusual. It is even more surprising (and thus frightening) after a massive and coordinated cut in interest rates.
397 fair enough - I’d say the rapid falls are fairly pertinent to the current political and economic landscape though - and perhaps form my own perspective its not a small amount of nervousness about what it happening in the world.
The paper said that there is $400 billion to be won and lost tomorrow. That’s a big number to be exposing yourself to.
Looks like I was prescient.
189. Every day Brown is in power he just seems to get more farcical. I think I need to recap on Brown’s history.
I think that Brown is a tragedy foisted on the UK by a PLP bent on destroying us all. It’s not only farcical, it’s Fascistic.
The taking over of the banks and saying that “they”, -whover ‘they’ are- must be punished has all the hallmarks of the beginning of a Fascist Government.
by weathercock October 9th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
before closing tonight:
Repeating the above because I think its important.
Will DOW crash through 8000 barrier tonight or tomorrow?
by weathercock October 9th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
399- CNBC put it up after the market closed.
Since the bailout bill was passed last Friday the Dow is down 18%
Future’s are now -616. That would see us below 8000.
392 Herd mentality. People decide their stocks are worthless, when they’re not, and sell them to anyone who’ll take them at any price.
may have missed something here, but did the £500 billion bailout of the banking system go through a voting system in a similar manner to the Americans $700 billion one? Or did that **** Brown and his wet nurse Darling just push it through unhindered? If the latter happened then its another step away from a democratic Britain. Its taxpayers money so surely there should be more control over how its spent rather than just letting these two incompetants burn it!
397 Normally wouldn’t bother of course - but the movements have been truly exceptional in the last few days, and they are making the weather for UK politics.
Has kinda felt like live-blogging a Crash, though….
369. Chipping away at the value of your vote? Do you have any evidence of voter fraud going on in a mainstream news source? And as for your free speech, have you never heard of such a thing as libel? Or do you champion the right of people to smear with false accusations?
And it’s interesting you think that all “lies” must be a subjective thing. The Republican attitude that plenty of facts are now just opinions was one of the first things that made me a Democrat.
401, 402. Thanks. Sounds like no end in sight.
People are selling coz they think they’ll get them cheaper the next day. At some point the volatility will slow and people will pile back into their positions.
412. You hope!
Listening to people talk about GM and Ford and it’s almost as if the market doesn’t expect these companies to survive in it’s current form. They are reliant on customers getting credit, the banks aren’t lending, even to people who have good credit therefore these companies can’t sell cars.
Ford already makes a loss of $8billion a year as it is.
I can’t see those companies failing, but then I couldn’t see banks failing either.
408 See Sean’spost. The herd. Labour have a majority. Do you think any of that braying mob will even read it before voting ‘aye’?
Its the reason most of our legislation is so shoddy.
My longer term FTSE target is sub 2000
413 I think its because cash is king (apart from gold) ???
416 Longer term, you think we’re returning to a Dark Age standard of living.
Have you ever posted anything other than “We’re Doomed.”
412- Alex
Of course. But the question is to know when…
wow - sky showing the vox populi in Kent on the Iceland investment - ‘prison’ was all she said ‘prison for the councillors’ - and she even shouted it over the interviewers shoulder ‘at’ the council.
Hilarious
417
Cash is King if it’s not in a bank that goes bust.
There are a few hundred of the latter to come…
Can you believe the hubris?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4916344.ece
408 Interesting point - the keystone of the English Constitution, presumably carried over into the British one, was that supply had to be voted through Parliament before HM or HM Government could spend. Is there a Royal Prerogative somewhere that allows spend before its confirmed or is there some clause in the Budget Bill?
379- Your comments show you didn’t even read the IBD article to which I provided a link. While it is true that voter registration fraud is only the precursor to vote fraud, it is still a big deal, particularly in states where no ID need be shown at the voting booth, such as Nevada (see article). Therefore, Joe Blow could vote in several different places on election day posing as fake individuals registered by ACORN. “This story has no legs,” indeed.
Ignore the stock markets. In a bubble, really in a bubble.
Bunch of drama queens the lot. The reality of recession shouldnt see these mad daily drops and ironically with their heard mentality they are only making life worse for themselves.
413 But then, you hope, too. You are one of those who delights in bad news.
herd…
418 Posting “We’re doomed!!” is fair enough - if people had shorted the markets on the back of Madasafish’s postings, they would now be handily placed to retire - and not worry a damn about world recessions…
418
So far I have been correct.
Chartism is a science and it works - sometimes:-)
We live in a world where banks are deleveraging in 2 years what took 15 to build . SO a crash is going to be huge as assets are sold in a scramble for cash.
And assets = everything at the end.. in a panic…
When are we sending the shrimp boats to Iceland? MG! It beggers belief.
Folks if you put SKY News on, for several days they have constantly shown the FTSE and then the Dow, Nikkei, Hang Seng etc in the top left corner of the screen.
The biggest worry now is that if the banks are not the subject of stock market runs, it will be the major companies which employ over 40% of the workforce in the private sector so we have a lot to worry about.
428
Still another 1400 to go on the Dow…
423 I heard on the radio this morning that because the banks had consented to the measures, there was no need for that troublesome legislation oversight nonsense….
426. Is Sean Fear in fear?
433
So our Government can spend a Year’s Budget as an overrun with no consent?
Democracy? Elected dictatorship ..
425 Thank heaven for that, Yokel. Common sense is in short supply here tonite.
When I worked in the City, we used to refer to them as professional sheep. Not far out, were we?
374. that is a brutal poll !
We sould have a new thread: IS MADASAFISH FULL OF DOOM?
424. I think the other articles on IBD’s home page show how impartial a source it is:
“John McCain rightly laid the blame for the economic crisis on Fannie and Freddie, and the blame for that on the Democrats…”
“With a media wind at his back, Barack Obama regularly gets away with false and distorted statements…”
“Should Barack Obama win the presidency and the Democrats control Congress, as now seems likely, they will launch a full-scale war to drive critics…”
“Obama’s Principles (Or Lack Of Same) Are As ‘Real’ As Issues Get This Year…”
Has it ever cocurred to anyone that investors are simply moving out of stocks for a period? Where’s the money going? Is it disappearing or is it being hoarded to put into other investments?
Its the latter.
The Icelandic government may deserve the brickbats (I’m not in a position to judge), but how many more times today is Iceland itself going to be insulted in the media as a ‘tiny rock’ and ‘distant island’? It’s population may be tiny but geographically it isn’t, while in relative terms it’s actually a close neighbour of the UK.
Weathercock
Before you start congratulating again on your ‘prescience’, can you remind us how your bets on McCain are going?
440 well yes, thats always the case in any crash
440. Or ‘investors’ might be selling stock to pay off un-rollover-able loans which are becoming due?
Can I copyright “un-rollover-able” ?
Perhaps we should be checking up which banks Betfair and Intrade deposit our money in? All Intrade transactions go through the Bank of Ireland which should be alright if the money they hold is not moved somewhere else like an Icelandic bank in order to get a better return while it is on deposit! I have no idea what Betfair’s banking arrangements are though.
440
Well It’s going to Government Bonds being sold so the government can prop up banks whose derivatives are collapsing in value as investors withdraw money from equities to buy Government Bonds ..
being sold so the government can prop up banks whose derivatives are collapsing in value as investors withdraw money from equities to buy Government Bonds ..
442 Congratulating yourself, that is! Congratulating others would of course be a little more humble.
There used to be NATO missiles in ICLAND pointed against the old USSR.
Will they now be directed to the UK?
THE USA no longer have a base in Iceland.
If you want a miserable rant use the link I posted at 422.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4916344.ece
Gordon’s written an artilce entitled, ‘Why we must lead the world to financial stablity’.
I kid you not.
Please leave a comment, to balance out the Drapers.
442. Peter. many days ago, (if you’ve been following my posts), I conceded that Obama would probably win.
I did make £600 out of Sarah Palin though. Lol
Re Council’s lost money:
Council’s don’t have money…it is our (taxpayers’/ratepayers’) money
Likewise governments don’t have money…it is our (taxpayers’) money
SO when it comes to asking for a bail out, it is we who will pay. If the treasury help out, taxes must rise, and if they don’t then council tax (and charges for services) will rise.
But there is a way forward. Last week in an idle moment I rummaged in a draw that I rarely open; I found £19 and 97 Euros (and various other items - golf balls, pens, a beautiful pair of cufflinks, etc). Suitably encouraged I looked elsewhere and found a bank account which I had totally forgot about (and nicely in credit). I then went to work and found 200 unused postage stamps stuffed in a desk.
There is a point to all this ; all organizations, large and small, public and private have vast pots of unused/forgotten assets, and endless wasted resources. In the public sector this extends to human assets also. Now is the time for a massive public sort out and clearance, as a prelude to reducing the size and cost of the state.
“We must lead the world to financial stability”
OMG, he cannot help himself!
“When I became Prime Minister I did not expect to make the decision, along with Alistair Darling, for the Government to offer to take stakes in our high street banks, just as nobody could have anticipated the action taken in America. But these new times require new ideas. The old solutions of yesterday will not serve us well for the challenges of today and tomorrow.
So we must leave behind outworn dogmas and embrace new solutions”
What happened to NO MORE BOOM AND BUST?
445. Betfair have been royally supported by me for the last couple of weeks. No credit crunch here. Natwest still dishing the folding stuff in Devon (long way from Iceland).
450. “Please leave a comment, to balance out the Drapers.”
‘the Drapers’ - that sounds like an 18th-Century medical affliction!
440- Yokel
I agree, but only up to a point. Some of the money is “disappearing” because of the fall in asset prices (if you don’t sell, your assets lose value).
The Washington Post estimated yesterday that American retirement accounts have lost 2000 billion dollars since last summer. This is not “hoarding”, this is the loss of lifelong savings for millions of ordinary people.
422. Unbelievable. How is he ever going to fix things if he will not concede that he is partly to blame?
448. If the Cod Wars are anything to go by, I don’t think we have to worry about mutual nuclear destruction if another war breaks out. We should, however, prepare ourselves for some raised voices, and some unpleasant pushing and shoving.
449. Crikey!!! As Boris would say. IT WAS A JOKE!!!!!
450 one line stood out “Until only a few weeks ago few, if any, appreciated the real significance of the money markets within the wider global financial crisis and the importance of trust in these markets.” - sorry Gordon? you didn’t realise until a few weeks ago?
The Stock Market is basically irrelevant as long as people ignore it. It’s only a problem if people start giving making too much of a link between the dumping of shares and the state of the companies they’re dumping.
I wonder if the real problem is that stocks have fallen TOO far?
In a normal stock market decline everyone is looking for an opportunity to jump back in a ride the rally. At the moment stocks are so far below where people think their true value lies that they can afford to wait and put all their money in safer places.
Because people think they can return fairly late into a rally and still get very good value shares.
I dont frankly think the Icelandic Government deserves any of the brickbats being hurled at it. Let’s be honest, if HBOS, RBS, Barclays etc went bust we wouldnt have enough money in UK PLC to meet their liabilities and could you just imagine the 1st US Marine Corp parachuting into London to take control of the Bank of England if we were unable to release the funds deposited by American companies and individuals here in the UK.
At least Iceland isnt dependent on anyone else for all its energy given the massive geothermal and volcanic sources it has and it does produce beautiful tall slim lond haired women unlike the beauties we have like Jacqui Smith, Hazel Blears, Harriet Harpy Tessa Jowel and all the other “delectable beauties” who grace our government benches.
456. Don’t worry old chap - ‘change we can believe in’ will sort everything out.
I love the “…,along with the afterthought,…”
My 252 was a wind up. No one bit. Sniff.
455 Its an irritation brought on by hot air for which there is no 20th century vaccine.
I have just read that Gordon Brown is freezing the assets of Icelandic owned companies in the UK…so we have now nationalized West Ham football club and Hamley’s toy shop.
This is deranged
If you want to understand the political fallout then you must understand what Joe and Joanna Bloggs, that normal couple in the new flats, thinks of all this?
Well the problem and its solution they find difficult to grasp entirely. But they know it is an awful lot of money for the banks.
They note that some banks have gone bust and savings have been safe, but now, despite this unimaginable amount of money, banks are going bust and money is not safe.
They are pleased that the government is doing something to deal with this problem, whatever it is exactly. It seems very difficult. But they wonder who will pay for all this, and they get no answers.
They wonder why clever people disagree that bailed out bankers shouldn’t get a reward for the mess they have caused.
They wonder how it was allowed to happen - whatever has happened. They are told by the government that the banks are the problem. Fine. Blast the banks, they never liked them anyway.
Then they find that their friends are losing their jobs as the companies they are working for are bust and closing. Why, they ask, is the government not bailing them out? After all if they can do it for the banks why not other organisations?
They remember that the government says they have solved the problem with the banks which was causing such problems in the economy, so why is this terrible thing still happening?
Their holiday this year was very expensive and their pound bought nothing compared to what it did before. They think there will be no holiday next year.
Then they find all their friends are worried about their mortgage so they go to the bank to get a cheaper variable rate mortgage. They are told it is not possible. The bank has no money to lend them.
But wasn’t that unimaginable amount of money meant to make it possible for the banks to lend money? Has the problem really been solved, whatever it was?
Their local council has started to cut services because they did what the government told them to do, and lost the council taxpayers money when banks went bust. Why can’t the government bail out their council as they did the bankers? How can they allow services to be cut?
The economy is in trouble and the problem is not solved they realise. So they are very glum as they remember watching a laughing PM telling jokes about failing banks while a news banner underneath announces that house prices have fallen yet again.
And again they wonder who will have to pay for all of this. They know in their heart of hearts - and they have proved again and again they are not as stupid as some politicians and journalists think they are - that they will have to pay. But will their children and grandchildren?
Will they have, they wonder, a job to pay for this ’solution’ if things are as bad next year as they are this year? After a time they decide that they will have to pay, and being smarter than some may think, they realise that it is because they have to pay that they might have no job.
How can this be, they wonder, when they have been told that the economy is the strongest and will ride out any storm? They remember the government saying the economic bad times of the past will not reoccur. And they have. This was not supposed to happen again.
And they are not happy with those that let this situation arise. Like many voters who go through this process they do not shout or go on marches. They do not kick the dog or write to their MP. They do not shout or contribute to blogs.
But they do remember and will not forgive for a long time those that told them for eleven years that this would not happen. But it has and now they have to pay for it.
BTW Dow futures are about even for tomorrow. Presumably what was being reported up thread was Thursday’s futures, not Fridays.
463- I just moved to the USA and I think the next few years around here will be tough (not for me, though).
Not a sole I speak to thinks the government is handling this crisis well or think it will help them come the next election. Brown really is deluded if he thinks this will turn Labour’s poll rating round.
451 Sorry to disappoint, Weathercock, but I tend to concentrate my reading on those posts likely to lead me to greater profits.
Hope you bugged out of McCain before the financial pain got too great.
Obama purchases 30 minutes of primetime on CBS on Wednesday 29th October at 8.00pm :
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/obama-purchases-one-half-hour-of-primetime-on-cbs/
Gordon will no doubt look to see how well his golden piece has been received.
Please let him - and the Times - know.
Its what the Labour Party would do for Cameron.
Its only fair.
470. Did you ask Madasafish? I believe the views of soles are somewhat prejudiced by their vested interest in the state of the Icelandic economy.
470. Try to expand your conversation beyond the solea genus.
472- Incredible! Any idea of the price?
474
Pun of the day!
467 I am going to save that for my bedtime story.
460. That stood out to me as well. Brown can’t seriously mean that can he? Roubini’s 12 Steps has been doing the round since February and he is by no means the first to present such scenarios.
470./ There is no way of handling it well Martin when a government has to get involved on such a scale, its all a matter of degree.
The ideal, even then painful, was the financial institutions sorted it out between themselves with government sponsorship.
470. He’ll never lead but it could be enough to turn an annihilation into a simple defeat.
476 Chris (B). Not off hand. However I think it’s offers an insight into Obama’s fundraising for September. Wow !!
456. Absolutely, but is the stock market really seeing reality or has it taken leave of itself and a very small number of people literally losing their heads?
476 - Last time this was done was by Perot in 1992. Shows the advantage of opting out of public funding.
Fox going all-out:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Murdoch_raises_the_volume.html
This is fantastic. The coming utter destruction of the Republican party means they are spewing out so much bile that no-one will listen to them by the time President Obama is inaugurated in January.
414: GM credit rating is under threat.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27100742
It is really very difficult to see how they can survive. Anyone fancy making a credible case? Govt can only bail them out do much, and it would need to continue until demand picks up - i.e. years.
Ford’s only chance may be if GM do fail. Might pick up enough market share to limp on.
GM satellites in China, India Brazil, Australia might just about survive.
On thread: If Labour benefit from this, then I despair of my fellow countrymen I really do. But I don’t think they will. When unemployment kicks in big time, Brown will feel the wrath of the voters.
In case anyone hadn’t noticed, he was chancellor from 1997, and in charge of the economy and its regulation.
I hope Cameron has read Brown’s piece in The Times. It should give him scope for PMQs.
484. There’s rumours of the campaign having raised over $100m this month.
486 You know what Bush said;
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and they are the ones you want to concentrate on.
472. Even as an Obama supporter, I find his financial dominance discomforting. I did complain about the way Bush was able to plaster the media landscape with his ads in 2004 and the same rules apply now. The people who are now understandably happy about the situation on my side of the political divide may once see a Palin-like figure enthuse the GOP base enough to do the same. Fair it is not. The only consolation is that this does not seem to be a close election where money could be decisive.
I’m happy about the strict regulations we have in Europe.
£1 =$1.70.
Gold trying to breakout - not yet..
Having a whale of a time,
One group who will be smiling are those who owe the bank money and have the cash to settle most if it. From past experience acting for the Bank of Scotland, if a debtor offers a substantial settlement of a debt by way of a lump sum, the bank will take it and write off the remainder since invariably it would cost them more to collect the debt with less success.
I am lucky enough to have a tracker mortgage but remember when we are discussing “political fall-out” a great many of the 2 million people with fixed rate deals finishing this year will not have successfully secured much better than a standard variable rate and they will be blaming the Government.
483- Yokel
Agreed on this point.
On the long term, markets will return to fair value. The question is what to do in the meantime.
486. “GM satellites in China, India Brazil, Australia might just about survive.”
Or GM might become a satellite of a Chinese car-maker.
I think all incumbent governments are in for an electoral kicking over the next couple of years.
I agree that Icwland has made a mess of the banking game but I really think it is incredibly inelegant for GB and AD to take such an aggressive stance against such a puny opponent. Are our finances so spent that we cannot cover them even for a time till things settle down. It amkes me ashamed to be British in all seriousness.
#396 CDS (Credit Default Swap) not CDO (Collateralised Debt Obligation), but yes it is all about Lehman tomorrow.
487
Cameron needs some scope!
Cameron and Osborne look a bit like parade ground soldiers, they’re ok at polishing their buttons and shining their boots, but when the sh*t hits the fan, they run for cover.
470
Oh God Martin! you mean soul don’t you? If you speak to fish you aren’t going to get to much of a response, although in your case, fish are probably in a higher intellectual bracket.
Martin do you remember your beloved leader’s speech? Cameron mentioned bad spelling as a major national problem, he probably had you mind.
493
Fair Value?
Read this..
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
495. Considering how much we have at stake I find it hard to believe we couldn’t have done a relatively smaller deal with the government of Iceland. I’m sure they’d rather have us offer credit to their banks, than the Russians.
They are our neighbours and we have friendly relations, we are being very tough it seems for political reasons not financial. When the dust settles Iceland is not going to feel any warmth towards the UK.
491. Do you foresee a big rally in the gold price shortly then?
495. Actually playing hardball makes sense. The Icelandic banks borrowed shedloads in hard currencies and now their domestic businesses are worth 40% of what they used to be in Euro. The Icelandic banks have 10s of billion of dollars in debt coming up for repayment next year. Iceland’s banks lent heavily to related firms who bought assets in the UK and a few other places. None of them will be worth anything like as much as they cost.
The Icelandic govt made a mistake by refusing to pay anything towards the failure - no doubt because they calculated that shafting UK depositors would be less painful than refusing to pay other creditors.
Overall the losses on Iceland will probably run around $30-40 billion (or several times GDP). Clearly a load of creditors arent going to be paid. The UK has acted (aggressively) to seize as much cash as possible. The Icelandic govt brought this on itself.
425. Yokel. We heard you the first time.
Another pretty grim day for economic news. The mood in the US seems dreadful - with serious questions raised today about the future of Morgan Stanley, GM and Ford, and a seemingly incoherent US and Euro zone policy response. It is unfortunate for the UK Govt. that a very well-designed financial package has been announced against this negative global backdrop, and it is the latter that may well be more significant for UK jobs and businesses.
Politically, I think Brown and Darling are coming across well right now - serious, businesslike, capable, and to a degree leading the international debate in the global institutions. When Mandelson recovers and adds his ballast to the ‘economic team’, they will strengthen further. This is a dangerous period for Cameron and Osborne - at least for now they appear irrelevant and lightweight. They also lack the obvious economic expertise of the Lib Dems’ Vince Cable and Chris Huhne.
How will it play out when the ‘real economy’ effects come through next year? The three key variables will, in ascending order, be: small business failures, house reposessions and unemployment. The first can to a degree be targeted by temporary support measures - I imagine it will be Mandelson’s task to make this happen. But for all three, the key issue will be keeping the level of nominal demand in the economy up, even if real output is flat or contracting. They can achieve this through very high levels of borrowing and sharp monetary relaxation. That should help to inflate away mortgages relative to house prices, and to allow for low growth in real wages without creating unemployment.
All of that will mean, as in the 1970s, that the underlying level of inflation in the next economic cycle will rise. But that’s a problem for a future government, and I think Labour will pull out all the stops, including sacking the BoE Governor if necessary, to ride out 2009.
Kind of sum’s it up
http://b3ta.com/challenge/savebanking/popular/
Taimur Rahman gave a detailed and extremely interesting presentation on China’s rate of growth since its revolution in 1949. He showed that GDP growth had on the whole been remarkably even since the early 1950s (around 9% - an extraordinary rate of growth to sustain for such a long period of time). He also gave the lie to the idea that China’s growth is only due to foreign direct investment, pointing out that those provinces with high levels of FDI do not always achieve higher rates of growth than those provinces with low levels of FDI.
Taimur also pointed out that the variation in growth rate is unusually low; this is evidence that China, with its predominantly socialist economy and its strict economic controls, is not subject to the ‘business cycle’ of boom and bust that all capitalist countries are subjected to.