Spread punters pile onto the Tories
October 20th, 2008
Are they betting that the media narrative is wrong?
Spread betters who risk hundreds and sometimes thousands of pounds on the outcome of the next election have moved sharply against Labour. There have been shifts of a massive eight seats on the markets where the number of MPs the parties will end up with are traded like stocks and shares.
This in spite of the big opinion poll stories in the papers yesterday about the move back to Labour in the wake of Brown being portrayed as a ’superhero’ round the world for his handling of the banking crisis.
The media narrative says that Brown is benefiting so those are the numbers that are selected to support their stories. Tories shouldn’t moan - the narrative had been all their way until about a month ago. So the voting intention figures in the BPIX poll are ignored and all the focus is on the non-voting figures that support their perceived trend.
Normally this is an ideal moment for smart spread betters to make their move. Betting against the all-prevailing narrative can be quite profitable.
Alas that has not happened. The money is going against Labour and for the Tories. We should see several polls in the next few days to see if gamblers are right.
Emergency arrangements when the site goes down. The site was down for several hours during the night. In order that things can continue in these circumstances I have created an emergency site so we can continue if there are problems. The URL is http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
The Yougov poll in the Mirror referred to earlier.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/10/19/gordon-brown-s-labour-government-slash-tory-david-cameron-s-opinion-poll-lead-115875-20820311/
We’re back…what happened?
WTF happened there?! Did the site crash for like, half a year, or was there a blip in the spacetime continuum? Duh?
If I were a lefty I’d suspect Mike did it deliberately, to stop Labourites crowing over the Daily Mirror poll.
Can I just apologise. PB.com was down due to me not informing our hosting company (1and1.co.uk) that I’d moved house.
The credit card payment failed… and they locked the server.
Rudely, they did so without telling me.
Sorry all.
Missed you.
Gabble Check List for Monday, October 20, 2008:
FTSE opens at 4063.01
Optimistic milestones to watch for:
4455.60 - up 392.59 (9.66%) to reach 2nd May 1997 level
5385.90 - up 1322.89 (32.56%) to come out of current bear market
5577.83 - up 1514.82 (37.28%) to match DOW performance since 2 May 97
5587.61 - up 1524.60 (37.52%) to match CAC performance since 2 May 97
6156.43 - up 2093.42 (51.52%) to match DAX performance since 2 May 97
6330.07 - up 2267.06 (55.80%) to match inflation (42.07%) since 2 May 97
6527.60 - up 2462.59 (60.66%) to return to 27th June 2007 level
6930.20 - up 2867.19 (70.57%) to equal all-time high on 30 Dec 99
Pessimistic milestones to watch for:
3460.00 - down 603.01 (-14.84%) to reach Madasafish’s interim low
3287.00 - down 776.01 (-19.10%) to reach Labour’s low on 12 Mar 03
2144.30 - down 1918.71 (-47.22%) to return to 28th Nov 90 (exit Maggie!)
The direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
Morning fellow PB cold turkey sufferers !!
Meanwhile ….
Latest Zogby/Reuters tracker :
McCain 44.4% .. Obama 49.8%
Note - Yesterday - M-45.1/O-47.8. CP endorsement bounce ?
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598
2 John O. Robert forgot to put a shilling in the new meter.
4. Ah. Good. Thought it was me! Or the Thai censors objecting to, er, something.
Nice to have you back.
4 -
So you were on the verge of being repossessed by Northern Rock!
7. Shilling? Shilling? Whatever happened to groats?
4 The credit crunch hits pb.com.
1 Poll not bad for either major party. Still don’t expect any bounce for Labour for this.
At best the solid performance over the past weeks enables Labour the chance to be heard once more. If (big if) the economy is seen to be improving on election day, Labour might (big might) now get some credit.
Overall, its very early days and it may very well go the other way. But Labour is stronger now than they were a month ago. Tory support has not really weakened IMO, despite a pretty vacuous and confused approach.
Emergency arrangements when the site goes down. In order that things can continue when the site goes down I have created an emergency site so we can continue if there are problems. The URL is http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/
By the way, the Brazilian GP market’s already up on Betfair. Outside shot of laying someone at silly odds, if you want to have a go. (I’m not, I’m going to wait until nearer the race when the odds can lengthen to silly proportions, last time Hamilton was 4/1 for the fastest lap, for example).
And I’m glad the site’s back. Was getting withdrawal symptoms, barely addressed by reading lesser websites.
Labour are ten+ points behind, just as we’re about to plummet into a swingeing recession that they created.
Desperate spinning by the BBC that Gordon’s Made It All Better Now by bailing out the rich with your money are not a narrative.
The spread markets are not fooled.
Bloomberg headline “UK GDP received an unexpected boost this morning when pb.com went down unexpectedly”
Good to see the site back - everything seemed fine when I went to bed last night…!!
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 52% .. Others 3%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 141 .. Obama 286 .. Toss Up 111
Changes Since Last Projection - Arkansas and West Virginia move from Toss Up McCain to Likely McCain. Florida and Nevada move from Likely Obama to Toss Up Obama.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 174 .. Obama 364
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
The change narrative is still there. Despite days of blanket Brown coverage he still hasn’t caught up, because as Mike keeps saying, Brown is a liability while Cameron is an asset. As Cameron forces himself more and more into the news the tories rating will go back up, plus Mandelson is already beginning to get into trouble with stupid personal decisions (again).
14
I hate to tell you this, but Sky are also giving it a lot of prominence, are they spinning too?
These are early days, I would think we’ll see a lot of, ‘poll bouncing’ before the spring.
As for the spread market, that BPIX poll may have influenced them.
These polls are obviously replicated by the Tories private polling, which explains DC’s burst of hyperactivity.
Re 5 - Sorry, missed important one out:
2780.00 - down 1283.01 (-31.58%) to touch Madasafish’s bottom
@17:
Do you reckon we’ll see a measurable impact from Powell’s intervention by Wednesday’s BUTT, Jack?
19 don’t forget the Telegraph and the Mail need to be chucked in the same spinners column. These days the only place Tories can rely on getting their truth is direct from CCHQ or their gnomes at the Spectator.
Is the “media narrative” still that Labour are having a “comeback” (i.e. Tory lead down to quadruple figures)? I thought that ship had already sailed.
Yes - with the site troubles I hadn’t notice the YouGov poll. Good news for Labour. I’ll be doing a post ASAP.
Anything that keeps Brown living in his dream world, where he is master of the universe, is welcome. He will wake up, as if from a dream in 2010.
The Tory party just needs to wait.
@19:
So, the spread markets are wrong, says Coldstone?
FREE MONEY.
Fill yer boots!
14. To be fair the latest polls don’t definitively put Labour 10+ points behind, they put them 8, 9, or 16 points behind. And some think the last is a little iffy.
Who the F knows?
What is certain is that Labour have clawed back some ground since the Krunch, prior to which they were 15-20 points down.
Jonathan - talking of vacuous and confused approaches, what do you think of this Woolas immigration kerfuffle? Mm?
First Labour announced they were putting a “cap on population” and “setting a limit to immigration”, something they previously ruled out, explicitly. Then it was pointed out they couldn’t do this anyway because of EU law, so they mumbled and coughed.
Then they started arguing with each other saying this was all wrong because they were giving succour to racists, now they have said they never actually really said this in the first place even though they did say it, in the Times, in black and white.
Given that Labour have now ineptly half-adopted Tory immigration plans they previously dismissed as racist, and then promptly backtracked and said actually we’re not sure those are the Labour plans, I think vacuous, confused and TOTALLY HYPOCRITICAL just about sums up your party’s policy on this most vital issue.
What I think you have to remember is that, before the recent ‘media narrative’ change, the spread-bet market was already discounting a fair chunk of the Tory lead, i.e. assuming that opinion would move towards Labour before the next election. That is one reason why I didn’t agree with Mike’s view a few days ago that the spreads would move substantially towards Labour; OK, they moved a bit, but not as much as some people were suggesting.
What we are seeing now the converse of that: is a reflection of the fact that the fundamentals haven’t changed, Brown is still Brown, severe recession is coming, and Cameron is a vote-winner. To put it another way: betting that things are going to get better for Labour, starting from here, doesn’t look like a dead cert, does it?
BBC / Sky etc are turning the recession into a media event, unfolding day by day covered 24 hours a day.
That means they are creating their own bubble that doesn’t really reflect the true picture out there IMO.
OK, they visit firms etc, they have experts - but essentially they are deciding the angle and the focus.
This, I believe, is creating a parallel. They are reacting / reporting short term.
So are the newspapers.
I’m not saying they shouldn’t - just that it isn’t showing the long term political consequences.
Longer term, has there ever been a government (already unpopular) that has survived a deep recession when tested at the polls?
21 Martin C. We may already be seeing it in the Zogby tracker @ 6. The endorsement came on Sunday morning on “Meet The Press” and led all the bulletins during the day.
29. The Tories in 92, of course. But they changed leader.
29 Tories 1983 also
28 Morning Richard. Been a while since we exchanged notes.
It will come as no surprise to you that I am sitting tight. Labour are a long term sell, whetever temporary bounces they may enjoy.
In the US, I would expect the Powell announcement and Obama’s massive fundraising to end any further tightening of the race. He should coast in from here and win with, I suggest, something like 350 to 364 EVs.
Fat lady due to take the stage shortly.
31, 32… maybe I should have asked, has there ever been a Labour government that has survived a recession…?
4 Bearing in mind, inter alia,such events as Robert describes of finance companies failing to adopt most basic standards of customer service (this not, to my knowledge being an isolated example), “righties” should in the current environment be going into apologetic mode. OTT posters like seant (sorry there is no-one like seant, fortunately, should go down on bended knee to apologise for those their political heroes have unquestioningly supported over the last 30 years. I really would like to see him in abject apology mode - but knowing what we all do, the likelihood seems close to nil! Go on, prove me wrong, sean.
32. But 1983 came after a war. Indeed ‘92 was also something of a khaki election - with the Gulf War.
The rule seems to be that to avoid being kicked out after a recession you need to have either won a war, or changed to a more popular leader - or both.
I think that is why Brown is hyping up the Krunch - if it can be seen as a disaster of war-like proportions, then he has a chance of sidestepping voter anger about the recession.
Just read your outpourings at 27, sean. Phil Wooly - arse (so called by Cyril Smith) has been well known for this sort of thing since his electoral contests with Chris Davies (a one-all draw in the end). Populism, that is.
35 He doesn’t need to, Tim. I can assure you from personal experience that The Master Of Invective is not slow to apologise when wrong.
The site is back!
34. Can’t think of one offhand. But then Labour have never had prolonged and consecutive terms in office, so we are in unknown territory.
32
The 83 election was of course influenced by the Falklands effect, Michael Foot, and the Alliance. I’ve often wondered what would have happened, if those three had not been there.
The Guardian is reporting:
“LATEST: Public borrowing hits £37.6bn, the highest total for more than 60 years”
33 Thanks PtP. Yes, like you I sat tight in the UK market.
On the US, I chickened out; having bought the Obama EV total rather late in the day, I watched as it bobbed up and down a bit, and I eventually closed at neither a profit nor loss. I think you are probably right that there is more upside to come, but the risk-reward ratio didn’t look attractive given my late entry into the market.
35. Hmmmm. You’d do better to read #4 before pontificating about standards of service from finance companies.
It was the hosting company that failed to communicate.
40
Agree, its also unusual that the Conservatives, haven’t a team of familiar and experienced faces, ready to take over. So looking at the past, may not be a good guide.
New thread - YouGov poll points to a Tory majority of just 6 seats
35. Er, what am I meant to be apologising for? Not being a communist like Nick Palmer? Not being a liar like Gordon Brown? Not being a tra1tor like the entire Labour government on Europe? What? Do tell.
As Peter the P points out, I am always happy to bend the knee when I’ve done summat wrong. I was wrong on Iraq and have publicly poured ashes over my head several times since.
But not being a socialist tw1t doesn’t seem like much to apologise for. I know, how about this - “sorry I’m not more retarded, like lefties” - will that do?
Excuse me for away being away for so much of the time. I have read, but have not commented much. I have struggled with my health - as with things to say.
Now any removal of doubt re: Obama is gone (and we are surely DO know, given McCain / Palin), the US overall is dull as ditchwater, but there are individual races going gone.
What is interesting is Labour is back in the thirties, and Conservatives not so commanding after all. I thought this would happen - the LDs would fall back (despite making much of the going).
Basically, everyone knows US polls now - bit boring; no-one has a clue on British polls - and won’t till we have more settled times.
Glenrothes remains very interesting though. Has Salmond overdone it?
Did the great turn off happen at the dead of midnight then? I was in mid-read of a post when it just disappeared.
African Press International claims it will release the Michelle Obama tapes…
http://www.americasright.com/
It is interesting that the Tory support in the Mirror poll is even higher than the Sunday Indy one. It seems like that soft 40%+ support is now fairly hard. It seems again that Labour’s resurgence is at the expense of the Lib Dem’s. Find it hard to believe in a general election that LD’s will only get 14% of the vote, I think there are a lot of people out there who dislike Labour and Tories in equal measure, on top of the natural LD support.
BBC are reporting public borrowing has nearly reached the year target after only six months. Its not that tax receipts have dried up but that spending has soared.
Useless. Perhaps Brown went to the IMF and told them they should have shouted at him alittle louder.
The immigration stuff is just ludicrous. The more they focus on the issue, the more it will shed votes. The Tories are never behind on immigration and its something the Labour core vote resents them for anyway, judging by the rise of the BNP in some areas.
I can’t remember what polls we have coming up.
There’s an ICM marginal due mid week.
I’d like to see some Friday onwards polls. We don’t know when You Gov started but Anthony suspects it was Thursday and my understanding is that most of the replies will have come in then.
48 Good to see you back, SBS. Keep posting.
47 You weren’t the only one wrong about Iraq, SeanT. Good job they didn’t have a betting market on it. I’d have gone bankrupt.
I was certain they’d find WMDs, even if they’d had to put them there themselves.
Economy still shot then. What did our £500 billion actually buy us? Anyone?
Greetings all, from the survivor of Gorilla Island! Actually a rehabilitation centre for orphaned gorillas (parents killed for “bush meat” - God, it makes me so angry). They (hope) to train them to go back to the jungle. It is proving very difficult so far. Apparently gorillas suffer massively from stress. I just hope they haven’t invested in world stock markets….
Can heartily recommend Gabon. I suspect it could be the next funky place for the colour supplement set. Had a few days down the coast from Port Gentil to see some wildlife. Walking out to an elephant is quite exhilirating. Also being with mummy hippo with baby hippo in a small bay whilst in a very small boat is the sort of thing that gets the Health and Safety folks in a spin! Excellent birdwatching too. (Some of you are thinking - “mmmmmmm: heavily built Nottingham-born, Forest-supporting, anti-Iraq war, birdwatching businessman Tory - you are Ken Clarke and I claim my fiver!”. Not so - but he had very recently signed the visitors book at the Loango Wildlife Lodge!)
It does make you realise that once you get outside the big cities, 95% of the folks on this planet lead very similar lives. The small towns/villages of Africa are essentially the same as those you will see in Brazil or Pakistan or Vietnam. Getting on with the basics of life for your family - food, water, shelter, health - the ingenuity of fixing things with whatever is at hand, whilst aspiring to a few first world gizmos. I think a President Obama will be very attuned to that.
On topic - no-one got rich betting against Cameron, Mike….
48. Overdone what?
57. The pasta.