Tories lead by 12 points with Populus
May 21st, 2009POLITICALBETTING EXCLUSIVE:
CON 39 (nc) LAB 27(+1) LD 17 (-5)
More than half those polled want an immediate general election
I’ve been given to understand that a new poll by Populus for ITV news tonight with Westminster voting intentions will show the Tories remaining on 39% with Labour up one to 27% but with the Lib Dems taking the biggest hit - down five points to 17%. The comparisons are with the last survey from the firm ten days ago.
The others broke down into: SNP 4%: Green 2%: UKIP 6%: BNP 4%: PC 1%: OTH 2%
One factor showing the impact of the MP expenses row on voting intention has been the proportion of people saying they are absolutely certain to vote at the next General Election. This now stands at 45%, down from 51% ten days ago and 57% in April before the Telegraph started publishing their exposes.
These figures suggest, surely, a low turnout on June 4th.
Just over half of those polled, 54%, said there should be an immediate General Election compared with 38% who do not. But there’s a big split here depending on what party people support. Three out of four Tory voters want it now compared with just 30% of Labour voters.
The CON-LAB figures are very similar to what we saw from ICM in the Guardian on Monday night. That was C39-L28-LD20 and probably reflects the fact that Populus has a methodology that is very similar to ICM. The polls showing the very low Labour shares have come mainly from YouGov or the YouGov- linked BPIX. ComRes did have Labour at 21%.
My guess is that a large proportion of the UKIP 6% will slip back to the Tories by the time of the general election next year.
Mike Smithson
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first?
yeeaaahhhhh
Huh? Makes no sense. Why would those cuddly LDs get hit? Surely Ming’s QT disaster can’t have made such a huge impact?
Or is this just the natural unwinding of the Gurkha boost?
First?
Looks like we’re in a holding pattern for now.
Lib Dems down. Interesting.
I think this is more Euro elections effect rather than expenses.
The Clegg reaction to Expenses doesn’t seem to be playing well does it?
Why have the Libdems taken such a hit?
A tongue in cheek comment:
LIBDEM VOTE COLLAPSES!
;o)
people who moved to the Lib Dems have now moved to “they’re all the same”
Not a shock given GB handling of the expenses mess.
I have no excuse for making this unnecessarily violent video of Gordon Brown dealing with his expense cheats other than it was fun.
This is weird… Lib Dems down? Labour up one point? I shall, as usual, keep my money in my pocket till I see and ICM Poll.
Well Others (UKIP in particular) wouldn’t poll that many at a GE so I think it’s a good poll for Cameron.
And most people want a GE so the only party responsible for refusing one is most likely to suffer going forward.
But the those in the bunker will be happy to remain over 25%
The Tories are going to be unhappy with that, surely? If the lead tightens much further they’re back into hung parliament territory.
Pleased to see the SNP at 4% - that probably means they’re ahead in Scotland, but with Populus there’s always an interminable wait to see the breakdowns.
7 - I concur.
But the Lib Dem decline is puzzling to me.
Small earthquake in South America: nobody hurt.
Could someone reconcile an increasing number wanting an immediate General Election with an increasing number stating they will not be voting.
I think corporeal has a point - look at the UKIP figure of 6%.
In any case we should be very wary of any poll at the moment.
Huge support for PR there….:)
BOOORING!
However, I imagine Cameron will claw back about 3-4% of the vote from others in the months following the Euros.
Tories should be back comfortably above 40% by September.
6% UKIP won’t happen in a GE, clear Euro effect there
This poll is surely strange in a number of ways, not least the fall in the LibDem share.
Looks like the protest voters who would vote Lib-Dem are giving up on them too.
15 - You really think the Tories will be unhappy? Those like me who think Brown is going to destroy his party maybe are given pause for thought but Cameron is still on for a large majority on this poll.
Once upon a time I used to think I understood these things. Now I realise that I know less than my Aunt Ethel’s budgie. I would have forecast Tories up, Labour down and Lib Dems up as well.
I know nothing.
Perhaps the public think Claegg has been overly nasty about Speaker Martin?
The finding that more than half of people want an election is interesting as it totally goes against the line Peter Kelner was trying to spin on the BBC on Tuesday afternoon.
All really within the MOE. I thought the LD 22% was a little high last time. I would not expect that until election time.
15 - I’m happy with it, given the last couple of weeks it could be worse. I don’t think that the Lib Dems are any better than Tories or Labour on the expenses scandal, but I can’t see that they are any worse. I don’t know why they’ve fallen so far
I’ve just added this:-
18 Bournville
“Could someone reconcile an increasing number wanting an immediate General Election with an increasing number stating they will not be voting.”
I think it means that people are trying to send an angry message. It’s not all that surprising that in their anger they are not 100% consistent.
Baxter gives a Con majority of 52. Can’t help thinking the UKIP 6% would significantly drift back to the Tories in a GE though. If the Tories got back half - 42:27:17 - that doubles the Tory majority
The previous LibDem result always looked rogueishly high, but they will be disapppointed to be getting tarred with the “plague on all your houses” brush and not picking up support.
Is this because the Lib Dems have not punished any of their side?
It should be, but that may not be the reason.
So 9% of respondents want an immediate GE but aren’t certain to vote??
“I’m very angry and want an election now… but I might not vote…”
Can’t anybody be bothered to declare it a rogue poll ?
The 22% for the Lib Dems in the previous Populus poll looked like a bit of an outlier at the time, and I think this confirms it.
25. “Those like me who think Brown is going to destroy his party maybe are given pause for thought but Cameron is still on for a large majority on this poll.”
Put it this way - if Labour can get within twelve points in the current circumstances, is it really inconceivable they could get within six or seven points on GE polling day? Especially if by any chance they have a new leader by then?
The Tory lead is down, and they remain below 40%. This is a Westminster poll not a Euro poll - yes, I think they’ll be unhappy.
33. No it’s just churn and frustration among the ‘we hate everyone’ brigade which makes up a substantial minority of the Lib Dem vote.
From the last thread:
Re: 496 - Prediction:
Conservative 40%
Labour 24%
Liberal Democrat 17%
So I was one out on the Tories, three out on Labour and spot on with the LDs.
I make that four faults in total.
23.Euro’s ?? They are seen as the most Eurosceptic party. Be interesting to see the regional breakdown of their performance. They might have taken a hit over their involvement in deposing the Speaker. Carswell came across more as a lone Tory maverick, but Clegg was leader of the Libdems.
27 - Well it was obvious while it was coming out of his mouth that Kellner’s words were brown and stank.
fr @ 17.Don’t give up your day job !
41.David, did I hear him correctly, I could have sworn he said that there was no groundswell for a GE. Apologies if I got it wrong, would not be the first time.
37 - The game changes to a certain extent without Brown but if there was a general election campaign Brown v Cameron for a month any Tory lead will increase by 5 points or more.
Its staggering that 27% want to vote Labour, I am frankly amazed the LD’s havent done better.
15. haha. Labour are on 27 points. Yes, 27 points and you think the Conservatives are going to be dissapointed??
43 - You did hear him correctly. It was hideous spinning from someone who should be trying to at least appear neutral as a pollster rather than an apparatchik.
I laughed out loud at the time.
Annoying. I’ve been waiting a year for them to slip below 20% in a poll and they keep escaping. I blame Pravda.
While I’m at it I may as well blame Pravda for the “expenses” aka thieving politicians scandal too. I think the political half of the political - media class was jealous at how much their boy/girl friends at the BBC got paid and that’s what sparked off the troughing frenzy.
(Last point is possibly a tad unreasonable.)
I demand a recount,that poll is a ROGUE ONE
Bad news from the Congressional Budget Office, which predicts that unemployment in the U.S. will top out somewhere over 10% sometime late next year:
“The U.S. economy will likely start growing again in the second half of this year but unemployment will likely keep rising through 2010 to peak over 10 percent, the Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday.
“The growth in output later this year and next year is likely to be sufficiently weak that the unemployment rate will probably continue to rise into the second half of next year and peak above 10 percent,” CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf said in prepared testimony to the U.S. House Budget Committee.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE54K3OL20090521
Given the disenchantment with politicians, I would treat all polling with caution.
If I were polled , I think it unlikely what I would say I would do would stay unchanged for a week let alone 12 months..
I think Labour are to be congratulated on having such a strong poll in the face of the expenses evidence and Gordon’s obvious unpopularity. With Ms Harman as Leader and a clearout of the thieves they could win…
(All Labour need is some Conservative toff stand up and say the voters are idiots and have no right to see his expenses
I’m think its quite possible that by calling for the Speakers head so openly the Lib-Dems could have lost support. Remember most people don’t follow politics that closely and most people probably don’t know how heavily implicated the Speaker has been in this expenses stuff.
To most people he’s probably just a kindly old man who whilst ineffective and bumbling has been hounded out of his job by the real villains of the piece - The politicians.
46. Yep, Gaz. I’m assuming the Tories want a clear majority at the next election, and if so they would want to be further clear of the hung parliament zone at this stage than they are. Mike always reminds us that the Tories go up in the polls when Cameron is all over the airwaves - so if he’s been handling the recent crisis as well as his supporters seem to think, why isn’t there a 20 point Tory lead in this poll?
Apols if already reported but Widders is reported by ConHome to be seeking the Speakership :
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/05/ann-widdecombe-will-stand-for-the-speakership.html
http://img.skitch.com/20080914-njc5qy84g53xewmhbjhydfikai.jpg
Crosby Populus probabilistic
Con 336
Lab 221
LD 50
SNP 14
PC 5
Oth 6
NI 13
Con maj 27, 0.9% swingback to Hung Parliament
52 - If they think Michael Martin appears to be a kindly man who do they hang about with?
The mind boggles.
“The proportion of people saying they are absolutely certain to vote at the next General Election now stands at 45%, down from 51% ten days ago and 57% in April before the Telegraph started publishing their exposes.”
That would suggest that five and half million people who were certain they would vote three weeks ago are now not certain.
That doesn’t seem to fit with the perception that large numbers of people who would not normally vote are now so angry they are likely to vote for one of the minority parties.
Odd.
Another great poll for the Conservatives.The percentages for the minority Parties are largely an irrelevance, in terms of Seats,except in the case of SNP and the growth of UKIP,BNP and the Greens is probably benign from Mr.Cameron’s viewpoint.
I think polling is useless at the moment. With all the news coming out and the party leaders not having coherent action, the public will not know who to trust. Let this unwind for a couple of months and we’ll see a much clearer picture of what the GE is going to pan out like.
If, however, there is a constant drip drip of sleaze, affecting all parties and the leaders don’t take positive action, then I think voting intention will be useless and the minor parties will register big gains.
54. Widdecombes association has already adopted a new candidate. That might prove to be a bit tricky/
Oh good old rogue poll claims - but which one is the rogue - the one where the Lib Dems were up, or the one where the Lib Dems are down - probably neither - i.e. +3% on this one LDs = 20% -3% on the 22% = LDs 19% - margin of error anyone? LDs = 19 to 20% here.
The truth of polling is that the companies find the Lib Dem vote harder to get right than the other two.
On the other hand, there is a good debate on the Guardian website about political reform.
.
.
The certainty to vote figures in the latest ICM Guardian poll are interesting
The proportion of those saying they are certain or almost certain to vote (10 and 9) who say they will vote Labour is unchanged between April and May at 63%, Liberal Democrats has dropped from 64% to 61% , Conservatives have dropped sharply from 78% to 70% even Others have dropped from 61% to 54%
These are figures to keep an eye on.
I think Cameron will be quite pleased, given the parade of Tory twits on TV for the last two weeks.
The big reduction in Lib Dems could suggest that as they are the voters least engaged with politics anyway then a disproportionate number of their voters have become non-voters and therefore dropped out of the poll.
60 Gaz. Widders candidacy is pro tempore the next election.
53. Because some of his MPs have been draining moats and flipping properties at the taxpayers expense. All the party leaders have come out of this smelling of shit, its just Cameron was smart enough to give himself a bit of a hosing down. In such a situation, with so many tory MPs implicated, it is quite surprising that the Conservatives havent dropped to the low 30s, if only for a few weeks.
What happened over the last few weeks could have resulted in a reset, undoing all the work Cameron had done to rebuild the conservative brand, and brought both partie to between 30 and 35.
63 Yup - someting like one in ten Tories wandering off to UKIP in a huff he can live with. Still plenty of time to woo them back.
I do find the Labour number suspiciously high. Rogueish, even
For once, maybe the first time, I agree with Fiddling Farmer Tupac, given all the “old school Tories” exposed as moronic toff-esque expense fiddlers, for the Tories still to be basically on that 40% mark, is testament to the Cameron Brand.
Not sure what Labour government / MP’s have to do to lose more support. Fraud? Tick. Found guilty of killing somebody? Ticked that one off already. Illegal War? Nope done that. Basically nearly 30% of the population look like they will vote for Gordo come what may, unbelievable. I am genuinely shocked that the Lib Dem’s haven’t really profited, yes Ming found on the make, the other major offender appears to slipped under the radar, but all the other fiddling seemed minor. Clegg did well of the Gurkha issue, and I think well on the speaker issue.
But no, looks like certain people still going to vote for the red or blue rosette come what may. Add to the fact that when push comes to shove I reckon a high proportion of the right wingers that are going to vote UKIP at the Euros will hold their noses and give their vote back to Cameron come the GE, as a get the bar stewards out / change.
The last Populous poll, putting the LDs on 22%, was the rogue.
Really, the LDs are marooned in the 18-20% range, and if they’re lucky, will get north of 20% come the general election.
66. “What happened over the last few weeks could have resulted in a reset, undoing all the work Cameron had done to rebuild the conservative brand, and brought both partie to between 30 and 35.”
How on earth were Labour ever going to get back into the thirties on the back of a crisis in which they’re as deeply implicated, and which Brown has supposedly been handling disastrously? I’m still slightly confused as to why you think a poll showing all this has somehow helped Labour narrow the gap slightly (and to within 3 or 4 points of hung parliament territory) is a positive sign for the Tories.
47.”David Roe says:
21/5/2009 at 4:59 pm
43 - You did hear him correctly. It was hideous spinning from someone who should be trying to at least appear neutral as a pollster rather than an apparatchik.”
Nothing I hear these days surprises anymore, or the fact that for every tired cliche an interviewer comes out with, there is an even bigger point missed or left unchallenged.
59- The funny thing is that, as bad as things have been for Labour over the past 18 or so months, they have always avoided the absolute worst, which has allowed Brown to cling to power. In the end, though, this is probably the worst of all worlds for them. For example, if Labour had lost Glenrothes, who knows, maybe Gordon would have been forced out then and someone like Johnson would be now leading them from a stronger position.
In line with this theory, perhaps Labour will avoid the absolute worst in the Euros, polling just north of 20% and maybe even edging out the Lib Dems. Result: momentum to dump Brown abates just enough to allow him to soldier on. Then a summer byelection in Scotland, also narrowly won by Labour. And thus Brown, and Labour, continue marching inexorably toward general election disaster.
43/71 - Well he is married to a Labour peer
68 Oracle. Depressing isn’t it. I think that the real point is that fewer and fewer people are going to vote - if certainty to vote is at 45% that means that the next Government - almost certainly Tory at this rate - will be elected by less than 20% of the voting population. But they will have a huge majority and talk about their ‘mandate’. But in reality we are simply just losing people out of the political system at such a rate because they simply do not think that they can choose the politicians they want to represent them. It is an irony that the ever growing protest against the political system as a whole leads inexorably to its lack of reform.
I’ve been looking at the Populus polls. Wow. They really are very dependent on the spiral of silence adjustment being right.
May 8th-10th Poll
Labour have 247 definite voters and the spiral adjustment adds 30 voters
The Conservatives have 396 definite voters and the spiral adjustment adds 15 voters.
Assuming I’ve read it right. Anyway, without the adjustment the Tories are barely changed and Labour is down 3 points. (C 39: L 26 : LD 22 was the headline).
It’s got to be a bad poll - how on earth can they find 27% to continue to support Labour?
Oh dear Trouble at Mill,
MPs’ expenses: Gordon Brown is ‘pursuing political vendetta’ against Hazel Blears
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5362697/MPs-expenses-Gordon-Brown-is-pursuing-political-vendetta-against-Hazel-Blears.html
Me thinks Gordo has got serious trouble on his hands. If the ChipMunk gets chucked overboard, I doubt she will go quietly, and I think the media will keep pressing Gordo on why Blears, but not Hoon or Purnell. Killer bit from the article,
“Accountants have compared the behaviour of Mr Purnell and Mr Hoon to that of Miss Blears.”
Wooophsss
Interesting that for the second time this week, Gordon’s initial tough-it-out position has been overturned - and he has looked damaged as a result. Firstly, with the Speaker - where an early word saying he had to go could have prevented the poisonous headlines. Today it was the Gurkhas - reversing a crass decision. Who thought he looked good punching the Gurkhas in the face, FFS?
I predict that he will soon have to go for the hat-trick - and admit that several prominent members of his Cabinet have to go too, so soon after defending them.
Time after time, the wrong decision is being taken. Is there no-one he listens to in Cabinet? Or are they all looking at their shoes in case he wants to talk about expenses?
Hmm, Labour up in poll = good news for tories. The spin on here wouldn’t look out of place in Westminster.
Lumley on beeb, saying Brown is a thoroughly good man. No word of thanks to Clegg,Cameron.
Tories/LD’S must regret backing her.
75 if they are (27 plus one) wouldnt that make them 25
“What do we want?”
“A General Election!”
“When do we want it?”
“Now!”
“Why do we want it?”
“So we can abstain!”
Not sure the last bit works.
“Basically nearly 30% of the population look like they will vote for Gordo come what may, unbelievable.”
I’d say up to a 1/3 of that 30% are people who consider themselves rock solid Labour but who nevertheless might abstain on the day to make a point.
76 Oracle
The most interesting part of that article is that Martin Bell is thinking of standing against her.
75 Ken, I think you have hit the nail on the head there - the “spiral of silence” could well prove to be violently discredited come the election.
78 - Gordo is going to need a lot more than Lumley bigging him up to repair his reputation. Remember the great one, the chosen one, the messiah did bugger all to his personal or party poll ratings.
76. Oracle. Purnell claimed on his ACA for the place in London and then sold it as his main home. That’s the no-no that Blears was caught for I believe. If Brown isnt careful he’s going to have to execute all three of them, JUST because he is an idiot.
78. Labour are within the margin. They could just as easily be -1. The only real movement on this poll is the Lib’s who are -5.
As far as Lumley goes, what do you think she’s say? She a classy lady and of course shes polite in victory - Do you think she’d get up and start rubbing Browns nose in his self-inflicted humiliation?
85. “If Brown isn’t careful he’s going to have to execute all three of them”
I’m opposed to capital punishment, even in the case of James Purnell.
85 - Well Pravda were out in force on the 1pm news, the correspondent waving the official tax office booklet for MP’s about and quoting a passage from it, concluding that Hoon and Purnell did exactly what the advice told them to do, thus they did nothing wrong. Time will tell!
I was in the gym at the time, so didn’t really concentrate on the exact wording, but it was clear the goal of the exercise, “Operation Save Hoon and Purnell”.
Slightly disappointing for the Tories.
Unjustifiably reassuring for Labour.
Devastating for the Liberal Democrats.
Cameron will be praying for a swing back after the Euros from UKIP,
Brown will be praying harder to move back into the 30s, if only slowly,
and Clegg will be praying hardest that this a rogue poll.
Interesting poll, I would suggest that 39 is the low end of Conservative expectations and that once the expenses issue begins to fade a little that they will be north of 40. Labour seem marooned in the the middle 20’s and the Lib Dems seem to bounce around 18-20 with a few polls outside of this. I think that as expenses fades a little the others will decline and we will return to the rough 40:30:20:10 set up that seemed to be the norm before expensegate.
So Clegg slays the Speaker and gets the Gurkhas residency. He is rewarded with -5%.
Ain’t politics a bitch?
“Basically nearly 30% of the population look like they will vote for Gordo come what may, unbelievable.”
No. Basically nearly 30% of voters might - but on current form the turnout will be about 50% max - so only 15% of the population.
At the last election, things were dire, with Labour getting an overall majority yet having been voted for between a fifth and a quarter of the population - if this poll is a sign of things to come then we will have a Parliament that has been voted for by a minority of voters. It is bad enough that this happens at local democracy level - at national level it is a crisis of democracy.
Question Time seems to have 6 panellists instead of 5 this week
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/8056002.stm
Ben Bradshaw
William Hague
Vince Cable (again!)
Martin Bell
Marta Andreasen
Yasmin Alibhai-Brown
92 - Yes, fair enough, 30% of people who will vote…
93 - Oh god, they let the sexist / racist one on. Head desk bang! I’m sure she will be screaming about white men all guilty expense fiddlers, need more women and ethnic minorities, etc, etc, etc. I have a few words for her, Dawn “A Jacuzzi, init, like” Butler, no need to say any more.
74. Paul Lloyd
It is an irony that the ever growing protest against the political system as a whole leads inexorably to its lack of reform.
That decline has only existed since 1992. Before then it was relatively stable. Consequently, you can argue anything is causing it but I would take a guess at a couple of things. Firstly sleaze and dishonesty which has dogged Major, Blair and Brown. The second is the repeated and persistent meddling into our constitutional arrangements (EU, Devolution, PR Systems etc etc.) to the detriment of the British nation.
So you would seem to be indulging in perpertrating one of the potential reasons why people have turned their back on British politics. It’s people like you who are the problem.
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
92. Well, if we’re in for a packet of radical constitutional reforms, maybe one should be that a general election result is null and void if it attracts less than a 50% turnout. I’ve a feeling that would appeal more to Labour than the Tories at the moment!
Steen gives the V-sign to the voters…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5362605/MPs-expenses-Anthony-Steen-claims-people-just-jealous-of-his-large-house.html
There is no obvious reason to doubt the spiral of silence adjustment. I usually take opinion polls at face value, though there is of course always the possibility that the methodology is wrong.
I agree with tim’s comment that David Cameron must be feeling fairly relieved, given how awful the coverage has been for some of his MPs. When Labour supporters are pleased to see them at 27%, you know just how bad things are. I find it astounding that the Lib Dems have made no headway.
12. Ollie - that was bloody but also brilliant. Violent times call for violent satire. As for the poll - it puzzles me. Have no idea why the LibDems should be taking a hit. And reluctantly I have to agree wtih 88 - it looks like good news for Gordo to me. I suspect the spin this week will improve not deflate his fortunes - he’s looking back in control.
Here is something to ponder.On the Betfair Line there has been roughly three times more money traded on both Labour and the Lib Dems than on the Tories.
.
Two sage thoughts after my short spring break:
1. Margaret Moran should be renamed Maggie Moron. If the vulgar freak Blears can get away free, then surely a normal looking female shouldn’t be punished. Actually, both should be burned at the stake!
2. Sir ?? Gerald Kaufman is a sick, deranged old f*rt. How could he buy two TVs, just because he is obsessed with supporting the Hamas. Surely he doesn’t really want to see both sides of the problem??
92. Paul Lloyd. You do write the most awful tosh. Staying at home and not voting is also a choice. If people felt strongly enough and their interest coalesced in a certain direction, they would come out and vote. You automatically assume that society, economy, etc are broken in Britain. What proof do you have for these strong assertions?
It is possible that 50% of the population is indifferent to the likely outcome of the election. They may feel some antipathy towards Labour or Conservatives, but of an insufficient magnitude to vote. Whatever the outcome, these people are indifferent to the result.
99. “When Labour supporters are pleased to see them at 27%, you know just how bad things are.”
I’m slightly worried you’re partly talking about me there, given that I haven’t noticed any Labour supporters saying that yet. Tim (strangely) seems to think it’s a good poll for the Tories. Anyway, I’m not a Labour supporter.
Why do I get the feeling that their is going to be some attempted stitch up of Hague on QT tonight? He might be clean on expenses, but me thinks his outside earning are going to be dragged into it, as if he is some Moran or Morley etc.
96. I gave a good reason for this yesterday.
Less than half the people who voted in 2005 got an MP they voted for.
Atrocious…
70. because labour are on 27%, half a percent lower then their great poling triumph of the 1983 election. Labour at 27% are a very long way from achieving an overall majority, and are even unrealistically behind in becoming the largest party. Looking at the tables below it shows that any party that comes out of an election twelve points ahead is going to have a whacking big majority.
Election results major parties:
1974: Lab 39.2 Con 35.8 Lib 18.3
1979: Lab 36.9 Con 43.9 lib 13.8
1983: Lab 27.6 Con 42.4 sdp/lib 25.4
1987: Lab 30.8 Con 42.2 sdp/lib 22.6
1992: Lab 34.4 Con 41.9 libdem 17.8
1997: lab 43.2 Con 30.7 libdem 16.8
2001: Lab 40.7 Con 31.7 libdem 18.3
2005: Lab 35.3 Con 32.1 libdem 22.1
ICM give a “certainty to vote” figure of 45%, Populus a weighted average of about 65%. This is, if I have it right, a huge variation which means one or other of these sets of figures is badly wrong. Can anyone throw any light on these numbers?
72. That’s my view though I mostly keep it to myself for “tempting fate” type reasons. By managing to keep McDoom’s head just enough above water to stop him being replaced I think Pravda have guaranteed a historic calamity for their political wing.
96. jsfl. I think it’s because Labour and the Conservatives are now in the same small centre ground. A lot of people dont care - they are indifferent to the result.
99 I too agree with Tim’s post. If we were heading in to an election campaign 39/27, I’d be pretty damn confident of a decent majority.
The risk was Tories going to sub 35 too with the ‘plague on all your houses mindset’. Labour’s remaining support must be pretty hard whereas there must be a fair amount of soft voters to drop away from the Tories as the narrative has been with them so much recently.
Phew.
107. “any party that comes out of an election twelve points ahead is going to have a whacking big majority.”
Except the Tories, who would have a modest majority…
Ann W:
“When you are spending most of your time in London, you have to pay for someone to cut the grass. Who else was going to cut my grass? The cat? The cat did not even live in my second home.”
Err… you. or you can pay someone out of your wages like I would.
Guilty. Death by hanging.
99. antifrank. I’m saying that it explains a bit portion of the difference between YouGov and the others. Which method will end up being better at predicting stuff - who knows? Can we rely on Smithson’s rule - the poll showing Labour in the worst position is the right one.
112. Precisely. I don’t think Gaz has quite realised the arithmetical mountain the Tories have to climb at the next election.
109 - I don’t think there will be much grumbling coming from Cameron Towers if Gordo remains in power. However, Gordo has more problems than iffy poll ratings, he has a load of fiddling cabinet members that either won’t go, or can’t be fired and some more that won’t move from their current roles.
105. Oracle - understandable concern with Pravda in the driving seat. But Hague has promised to end his outside interests before the election, so that should help his case.
THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ARE DOOMED - DOOMED!
YELLOW TAXI time as the electorate see the gruby pious and sleazy LibDems for what they are!
116 - I know, but I wonder if they will try and spin it, as only ended them due to this crisis.
ken says:
21/5/2009 at 5:39 pm
92. Paul Lloyd. You do write the most awful tosh. Staying at home and not voting is also a choice. If people felt strongly enough and their interest coalesced in a certain direction, they would come out and vote. You automatically assume that society, economy, etc are broken in Britain. What proof do you have for these strong assertions?
It is possible that 50% of the population is indifferent to the likely outcome of the election. They may feel some antipathy towards Labour or Conservatives, but of an insufficient magnitude to vote. Whatever the outcome, these people are indifferent to the result.
No Ken - and unlike you I will be polite. The steady decline in political participation is because people do not feel that they can alter anything, and that nothing will change - that politics is removed from them - that they can do nothing. It is not the same as indifference - in fact it is the opposite. It is simply giving up.
So it is a choice - but not one of apathy - but one that registers their feelings about politics as a whole. That it is self defeating and self fulfilling because they are going to get a government whether they like it or not just makes it all the sadder.
scrapheap, thanks for your advice on previous thread (reply there). I will do as you suggest (in fact that’s what I was doing anyway!)
118 - Hague is capable enough to handle himself on that point.
117. Martin, not that I want in any way to defend Calamity Clegg, but your Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock catchphrase does trouble me in one sense. After all, Kinnock increased his party’s vote share and number of seats in both elections he fought. If it’s going to be yellow taxi time you might want to think of a more helpful comparison.
Today’s major news to remind people a la Tim/Wiggin - S&P saying our AAA at risk… this is from the below article:
In short, unless Brown and Darling take an axe to their spending plans, vote Labour at the next election and you’re voting for the UK to lose its AAA rating.
This is the day Labour’s economic credibility was declared dead in the water.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/edmund_conway/blog/2009/05/21/today_labours_economic_credibility_was_declared_dead
Surely this is going to destabilise Clegg - Maybe the not so saintly Vince will mount a Munich Beer hall style putsch against Clegg!
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock!!!
The more time Clegg spends on the TV the lower his ratings go!
Clegg could well lose Sheffield Hallam at this rate!
105, because it’s happened several times in the last few weeks?
I think the fact he’s stopping soon will be of some help, but the more important point is that he’s earning his own money rather than abusing the taxpayers’.
56.”David Roe says:
21/5/2009 at 5:03 pm
52 - If they think Michael Martin appears to be a kindly man who do they hang about with?”
David, that is why I want to see where the Libdems have lost support regionally. I know that it will seem partisan, but it was well trailed that Clegg would come out in support of the Speaker going, and some at the Coffee House Blog and Conhom thought that Cameron had missed a trick by letting Clegg take the lead. I think that Cameron has a great political antennae, and he seemed quite happy for Clegg to take the lead on this.
Watch how Labour handled this issue, you couldn’t move for tribal Labour MP’s on our screens over the last couple of days. I’d vote media tart Foulkes for a special award for spin, was he being recharged between takes?
121 - I’m sure he is, he is a “big boy” and a lot smarter / better political operator than pretty much all current MP’s. It was just an observation of possible way in which he might get dragged into a mess, which he is said to be whiter and whiter over. Pickles and Lansley got themselves dragged into things and made great big tits of themselves, over things that actually they aren’t really guilty of anything over (yes Lansley and his expenses are another matter). Pickles 2nd home is perfectly within the rules (although shows the rules need changing) and Lansley has some outside earnings for a few days a month work, big woophs.
I’m sure Hague won’t dig himself in a big hole, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they try and smear his name in some way, which he then wastes valuable time trying to undo.
112. No, whatever the numbers, if the difference is twelve points, the majority is going to be huge, a landslide. The whole baxter models etc fall apart on large swings. If the Cons get 42, lab 30 and libs 20 at the GE, Cameron will have a three figure majority.
78 - re the Lumley comments being bad for Cameron and Clegg.
I think you are wrong - everyone man and his dog knows Lumley has forced Brown into complete capitulation. They believe Brown was wrong and Cameron, Clegg etc were right. That she has the good manners to congratulate Brown now he has made his U turn is hardly great news for him - it just reminds everyone what a pillock he was in the first place. Had he taken these steps first time round then such comments from her might have reflected much more positively on him but it is far too late now and the damage was done two weeks ago.
I have just listened to Mr Duck Tory on R 4.
He was pontificating (I use the word advisedly) about the quality of duck or hen houses and their need to last and be items of beauty in the garden…
And then they had a guy who built one with pallets for £3.50 - the price of the beer he used to bribe his friends to help him.
Mr Duck is quiet clearly an idiot and totally out of touch with the world and worth about 1,000 votes to Labour every time he speaks .
Where do the Tories find these idiots? Is it inbreeding or do they have a school to produce them?
128. And what if the Tories get 37%, Labour 29%? Is that so inconceivable on this poll?
In spite of this poll (or perhaps because of it seeing as the Tory support is actually holding-up strongly in spite of their troughing) anyone thinking that this government has not entered its death throes is just plain wrong, wrong, wrong.
There is no pressure on Cameron whatsoever now to force an election: it’s going to happen all on its very own, probably in September, because way before then, Brown will be gone.
And anyone thinking Labour have a cat in heck’s chance of being anything other than obliterated in that general election is either living in cloud cuckoo land or is some sort of hardline Labour tribalist. Well, if you’re one of those folk, you’re in for a big shock.
130 - Same place as the likes of Dawn Butler and friends I guess! Unemployable in the real world, unable to read or write, come along and be an MP!
122. Ok Nick Clegg = Michael Foot!
It is not about the electoral prospects of the LD but the number of gaffes Clegg has made! Clegg = Kinnock because he made himself into a figure of fun due to the £30 gaffe!
It is a harmless piece of fun that drives LibDems mental!
127 - Yes but Hague is about 5 times better than the two of them put together. I haven’t understood for a long time why Lansley hasn’t been given a one way ticket to the backbenches. He is abysmal. Pickles was bad on QT but has learnt. Hague should deal with things ok.
131 - Not inconceivable but I think it is less likely than the Conservatives getting 41% and Labour 25%.
134 - I thought Cameron had promised Lansley he will be running the NHS after the next election.
131 are you suggesting that the Conservatives will fail to get an overall majority with labour on 29 and cons on 37? I dont believe the models are able to cope with the consequences of large swings.
Was there a model in 1997 that was able to predict with accuracy the consequence of the large swing in may of that year?
136. I think he meant NUS.
I wonder if Vince Cable will get booed for his request to retrospectively claim backdated London supplement - relatively innocuous in the grand scheme of things.
I am still in shock after seeing Ming Campbell get strung up last week for what seemed to me to be fairly reasonable expenses.
EDIT: I suspect Ben Bradshaw will get it in the neck too - although he played the homophobia card to disguise what seemed to me to be flipping.
.
.
Can I remind everyone that there is a by-election tonight in Salford.
130.I belive the school in question is called Eton. Sorry Dave!
Breaking News on BBC’s website that Ben Chapman is to stand down at the election.
136 - He may well have done, but there is no way I would have done.
137. “Are you suggesting that the Conservatives will fail to get an overall majority with Labour on 29 and Cons on 37?”
I think that’s perfectly possible, yes - that’s precisely why I’ve been saying throughout this thread that the Tories will be troubled by a poll like this.
Chapman standing down at next G.E. Another one gone.
Just checked the QT site. Apparently Yasmin Alibhai-Brown is on. I think I’d've preferred Patrick Kielty.
137. Lets remember also that the LD incumbancy has been blown out of the water in the last two weeks!
Baxter still factors in Incumbancy! It may well be the case for the LD that an anti-incumbancy affect may sweep them away!
I am looking forward to watching the crushing of the LD!
Labour will be defeated at the next election and it is looking increasingly like two birds will be killed with one stone - Labour and the Liberal Democrats!
.
.
Thanks ken [75] - I’ll buy those numbers.
144 - I think they will be more troubled by what might be in the Telegraph tomorrow.
EDIT: Speaking of which I can’t get into the site.
96. Perhaps Ken But I think that also is partially defined by and as a result of the same thing. It all comes back to the EU and linking that to the turnout issue.
Our last Eurosceptic Prime Minister left office in 1990 and since more and more power has been taken away from Parliament. Consequently there is less ground for the political parties to share. Therefore it is little wonder that they become more and more similar. At the same time turnout has fallen significantly.
146 - Can we add YAB to the firing list?
141 - How many of the MPs who went there are tainted.
I can think of four so far.
Hogg - Moat.
Arbuthnot - Swimming Pool
Cameron - Wisteria.
Wiggin - Confused.
Any more?
91 - “So Clegg slays the Speaker and gets the Gurkhas residency. He is rewarded with -5%. Ain’t politics a bitch?
”
Clearly people are worried - if Clegg can get his policies enacted whilst only being leader of the 3rd party - what power would he have if many more people actually voted for them…
119
Paul,
“No Ken - and unlike you I will be polite. The steady decline in political participation is because people do not feel that they can alter anything, and that nothing will change - that politics is removed from them - that they can do nothing. It is not the same as indifference - in fact it is the opposite. It is simply giving up.”
That is your opinion beause it suits your view of how things should change. However it is only an opinion. There is no empirical evidence that this is actually the reason people are not voting.
My opinion - also not backed by any empirical evidence - is that most people when asked will say something like ‘it makes no difference’ or ‘they are all the same’ because they don’t want to appear to be so disinterested that they simply can’t be bothered to vote.
Unfortunately the bottom line is that people just don’t care. We have bred a couple of generations of people now who have little or no interest in anything much beyond what is shoved in their faces via the TV. They are ignorant of much of the history and philosphy of both politics and the country in general and changing the voting system would have little or no effect on their willingness to put themselves out and go and actually vote in an election.
152. OMG I’m giving Timmykins ammo! I will hang my Tory head in shame!
This isn’t really about politicans and their dishonest ways, but I think it represents the low cunning found in the worst sectors of society. Even the most stupid and brutish know how to twist the heartstrings of the judiciary. The mother of poor Baby P has writen to the judge who will decide on her sentencing tomorrow. She has ‘apologised’ for all the misery her little child endured. Unfortunately, I think the judge will fall for this rubbish, and follow the Nu Labour line of trying to keep prison numbers down. He will probably take into consideration the time this evil woman has spent in custody and deduct it from the time she should spend in prison, and then state that her apology shows repentance. Shades of Myra Hidley!
147 - Is Sunny Delight on special at Lidl today, Martin?
149. You expecting anything in particular James or just more of the same ?
QT is live tonight????? (9pm) are they mad?
139
wibbler
It was not Ming’s expenses that got my back up but the way he said it.
A second “divine right of MPs” to be grander than us hoi polloi and to talk down to us.
Margarine Beckett was the same: MPs’ expenses were “complex” and I could not understand them.. ( Straw said he was “not an accountant” .. well I am!)
“Holier than thou jumped up hypocrites” was my reaction..
The Conservative Theresa May was humble and quiet: a very sensible attitude.
The Chipmunk’s allies feel she is being victimised…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5362697/MPs-expenses-Gordon-Brown-is-pursuing-political-vendetta-against-Hazel-Blears.html
159. Who’s on?
151, no.
For the very good reason that she’s already on it.
158 - More of the same I would imagine.
Evening all
Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here (from Martin mainly) I’m very relaxed about this poll from an LD perspective.
A 5-point rise would be better than a 5-point fall but, like others, I was sceptical about the initial 22% rating as I was about some of the Labour figures from last weekend.
Oddly enough, had the expenses issue never happened and we’d seen this poll we’d think little of it. Both this poll and Tuesday’s ICM suggest to me that unless anything really dramatic is revealed, the expenses issue has run its course and we’re back to about where we were with a healthy Conservative lead.
Today’s data might suggest economic woes will shortly be returning to the top of the news agends.
164, I hope duck island can be bettered. A bear fortress perhaps, roamed by cyborg, genetically engineered polar bears.
163 - Didn’t realise she was on it already, should have as you are very sound with regards to the firing list.
162:
Ben Bradshaw, William Hague, Vince Cable, Martin Bell, Marta Andreasen (ukip), YASMIN ALIBHAI-BROWN (columnisty in the indy)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/8056002.stm
155 - It would seem that Tories who went to Comprehensive Schools are underrepresented in the parade of twits.
They seem to break down into two groups.
1.Posh Public schoolboys who believe they are entitled to fund their country houses.
2.Aspirational grubby Grammar Schoolboys and girls who read the Daily Express property pages and think a Duck Island or a Summer Room with a Berber carpet and refurbished wooden block are somehow lifting them upwards.
Its all a bit “Playing fields of Eton hosts Abigails Party”
There must be some normal people in the party.
157. James
I don’t know i don’t shop there!
The Liberal Democrats are doomed - DOOMED at the next election! A collapse in support like that may well cause Clegg further problems as the LD HQ command struture is collapsing and a large proportion of LD MPs are caught in a sleaze trap! Even Vince Cable asking if he can have some more expenses looks less than saintly!
The next election for the LibDems will be a bit like watching the extermination of a Honets nest! The LDs will be smoked out and wiped out!
Cherio Liberal Democrats!!!
LD = Doomed +
The programme moves to peak viewing time tonight. David Dimbleby is in Salisbury along with Ben Bradshaw, William Hague, Vince Cable, Martin Bell, Marta Andreasen, and Yasmin Alibhai-Brown.
Yazmonster, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
165 - Aren’t you a little curious why the Lib Dems are completely failing to profit from the expenses scandal?
119. Paul Lloyd
No Ken - and unlike you I will be polite. The steady decline in political participation is because people do not feel that they can alter anything, and that nothing will change - that politics is removed from them - that they can do nothing. It is not the same as indifference - in fact it is the opposite. It is simply giving up.
Interesting that that doesn’t preclude you from telling us what we as voters are thinking. By the way I was one of those who walked away after 1992 (over sleaze and the EU) and started voting again in 2005 . So I am someone who you are supposedly speaking for (as if). You certainly don’t speak for me!
Once again I say it is people like you who are the problem. You make assumptions that suit your own tiny view of the world and try and use ‘the people’ as justification. You just don’t listen……
By the way of all the posters on here Ken is one of the politest and one of the most patient. For you to suggest otherwise says more about your attitudes and character than anything else.
169
No I think you are wrong there Tim..
Some of them appear to have no common sense.. sh1t for brains as they say in rural Staffordshire…
165. Come on don’t deny someone a good gloat!
161: In a fight between Gordon Brown and Hazel Blears I think Hazel would win.
171. 6 guests ?
152-You could the same about Westminster school- Steen, Kelly and Huhne all went there. All are now tainted to a greater or lesser extent. I went there too and am similarly a trouser-press obsessed gardener with a pension for flipping houses.
What is the date of the poll?
177: that’s about average isn’t it
177 - I know so the panel is
Hague - reasonable
Bradshaw - reasonable
Cable - self important, pompous
Bell - self important, pompous
Andreasson - Who?
YAB - self important, pompous
all moderated by Dimblebey - self important, pompous.
Why is it that people who failed to take advantage of whatever education they were offered are frequently envious of those who did?
176 - Yes but she isn’t fighting, she is capitulating to Brown. Why?
182- dunno quite what you mean by that.
161 James B
I think Hazel Blears made a big tactical mistake waving cheques around and saying that her behaviour was ‘unacceptable’, if she wants to remain in the Cabinet. She gave Brown an excuse to ditch her. Given the YouTube comment, he will no doubt avail himself of this excuse.
Politics is a rough game.
181.
No hair
Bad hair
No hair
Bad hair
Who ?
Wig ?
181. Lot of flak for Bradshaw down in Devon. He could be in for a rough ride tonight!
167, there are probably huge gaps, although it is quite lengthy now.
152. In the bigger picture however you interpret it, these were of varying degree greedy, mistaken in the rules or whatever.
However, they pale in comparison to
Morley - possible fraud
Chaytor - possible fraud
Chapman - possible fruad
Blears, Hoon, Purnell - potential tax evasion (NOT avoidance)
F1:
After the first two practices Barrichello’s odds have shifted from 12/1 with sportingbet to a lay value of 8 with Betfair, last time I checked.
Vettel’s odds have lengthened from about 4.2 to 5 or thereabouts.
I’m hanging on to both, and hope to lay after qualifying.
182 - The Wiggin family seem to have achieved the remarkable result of breeding out the ability to fill in a form.
Dad thought he was Seb Coe, and Son forgot where he lived.
It seems cruel to invest heavily in their education.
Although I suppose we should be glad they’re not leading a Pals regiment to their deaths.
Marta Andreasen (born autumn 1954) is an Argentine-born Spanish accountant, employed in January 2002 by the European Commission as Chief Accountant, and notable for raising concerns about fraud potential within EU, neglected by the Commission
Mrs Andreasen was fully suspended from her job by the Commission in May 2002 (for “violating Articles 12 and 21 of staff regulations, failure to show sufficient loyalty and respect”), underwent a disciplinary procedure and in the end was fired in 2005. She said to have been suspended from her job and ultimately fired because she refused to sign accounts she believed were unreliable – in 2002 alone, her office found 10,000 possible cases of fraud in EU accounts. The EC says she was disloyal. [4]. The Civil Service Tribunal of the EU confirmed the sacking of Marta Andreasen in its decision of 8 November 2007.[5]
Andreasen is standing as a UKIP candidate in the 2009 elections to the European Parliament.
Guido reporting Bradshaw stands down?
185 - Yes, but she isn’t playing the political game is she. She is going to be sacked in the next reshuffle, that is plain for all to see. So why doesn’t she stand down now? She is getting flack every day for it, she could say that it is because she is a distraction etc. It would also comprehensively shaft Brown. She isn’t playing the politics of the situation.
166 - I shan’t be content until we have uncovered an extinct volcano with a secret lair hollowed out of the magma chamber.
181 - JB - I’m sure you actually looked it up, but just in case:
Mrs Andreasen began her new job in Brussels, as Chief Accountant (”budget execution director and accounting officer”), the first professional accountant hired.
She was fully suspended from her job by the Commission in May 2002 (for “violating Articles 12 and 21 of staff regulations, failure to show sufficient loyalty and respect”), underwent a disciplinary procedure and in the end was fired in 2005.
She said to have been suspended from her job and ultimately fired because she refused to sign accounts she believed were unreliable – in 2002 alone, her office found 10,000 possible cases of fraud in EU accounts.
The EC says she was disloyal. The Civil Service Tribunal of the EU confirmed the sacking of Marta Andreasen in its decision of 8 November 2007.
Well worth reading the rest of her Wiki entry. She sounds an ideal panelist.
193, Ben Chapman, surely?
Tim - you’re becoming a nasty poisonous little runt again aren’t you?
And to think “rational” Tim almost got a look in a few weeks ago!
193. Chapman
Hi
Sorry if this has been noted before Guido says Ben Bradshaw standing down ~ there are no details. Might make QT even more interesting!!
OK BBC says Chapman!!
197 Makes more sense but not what he is saying.
123 scrapheap:
Very interesting passage from S+P picked up in that article:
“The rating could be lowered if we conclude that, following the election, the next government’s fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to put the U.K. debt burden on a secure downward trajectory over the medium term. Conversely, the outlook could be revised back to stable if comprehensive measures are implemented to place the public finances on a sustainable footing, or if fiscal outturns are more benign than we currently anticipate.”
In plain English: the rating will be downgraded if there isn’t a Conservative victory.
196 - Yes but not exactly the most well known person is she?
“In a fight between Gordon Brown and Hazel Blears I think Hazel would win.”
I’d bet on her winning against most male MPs but alone down in the bunker’s “special” cellar I think McDoom looks a bit like private Pyle:
http://img76.photobucket.com/albums/v232/downtown65/teoti/pyle1.jpg
My guess is Prescott is the only one not physically scared of being killed and eaten if they make him angry.
Re: 175 - No, that’s fine. I just hope you’ll be around when the Conservatives go below 30% for the first time in a poll - perhaps 2012/13.
+++ Labour MP Ben Chapman Standing Down Over Fiddles +++
while the name of the thread is bradshaw it now says chapman…
http://www.order-order.com/2009/05/ben-bradshaw-standing-down/
Yep - he’s changed it to Chapman now.
Tom Watson says that e-petitions help to guage public mood on things. BBC are having a little fun seeings as which petition is top of the list.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8060324.stm
200. It is chapman not Bradshaw from what i can see on Guido!
202. Exactly. Labour = more debt forever.
169.
In a few short words you express the utter vileness that is the Labour project, the disgusting imorality, the obsessive class hatred. The Labour Party truly are the party of hatred and nastyness.
“Aspirational grubby Grammar Schoolboys and girls”
Just thought of a good expenses scandal: a floating theatre set for the Rocky Horror Picture Show, performed each year by the claimant’s staff.
“Chapman standing down at next G.E. Another one gone.”
Any more clay pigeons due tonight?
212 - Nowt wrong with aspiration son.
Unfortunately, trash like Jackson and Viggers expected the taxpayer to fund their grubbiness.
And Steen on TV as we speak shows the entitled rather than the Abigails Party Tory.
in the meantime Gaz, do you think Dorries claim for a hotel room she claims not to have used was attempted fraud?
119. Paul Lloyd. Erm. You dont get it do you? I was being polite - what you write is tosh. You keep saying this stuff, but there is absolute no proof supplied that people have “given up”. The fact that you believe it, is not proof. The fact that I believe that it is indifference is also not proof.
Political systems are about the allocation of resources and the mechanism for deciding priorities. Given that people have preferences and that they are able to both participate in political parties and vote suggests that they can express those preferences. You seem to be suggesting that somehow both the Tories and Labour are two sides of the same coin and because of institutional barriers to entry, they do not represent the views of a majority of the population who are now in a voting strike. However we would expect any rational party to move to incorporate a large coherent group with similar preferences in order to “win” against the other major party.
Most of politics is about the median voter - coalition building. I find it difficult to believe that there is a group with a coherent set of preferences that need to be expressed that represent a significant minority (let alone majority) that are not adequately represented by the present parties. I could be wrong. But I’ll need some evidence as opposed to hand waving.
“Although I suppose we should be glad they’re not leading a Pals regiment to their deaths.”
Oddly enough, the fact they did that and did lead from the front and got killed doing it is why hofficer type Tories are always likely to get more of a listening too from old-fashioned Laboury type people who know a bit of history.
214: I suppose that depends on what the torygraph prints tomorrow
re 212 well said
twerps like Tim are best ignored. Most of those who sneer at aspirational types don’t have to worry about aspiration because of their background(Harmen, Benn, Toynbee, Crosland)or because they hate those who dont respond to their quasi-marxist outlook (Brown)or simple spite.
219 - Sneering at Viggers Duck Island, an Jacksons Wooden Block is fun.
And rational.
Isn’t funny that Purnell, Hoon, Usher, Purnell, Straw, Balls, Darling and Brown all seem to go to ground when the fan is hitting the sh1t, none of them want to explain how their claims are all above board for flipped second houses. None of them want to explain that they felt remorse every time they made a claim upon the taxpayers’ funds.
As for Brown’s claims about being well placed to deal with the recession, why are the rating agencies considering a downgrade. Is cos he is a lying toe rag?
Is there a link to the CBI car crash speech?
221: It’s worse than that Brown actually believes what he is saying.
Dr Ian Gibson on BBC Look East trying to pre-empt tomorrows exposure in the Telegraph. Apparently he allowed his daughter and son in law to live rent free in his London flat while the tax payers were footing the mortgage bill. Then he sold the flat to them at below market price.
Very surprised at the man. I thought he had more integrity.
(Off Topic but topical)
Growing pains of a Fifteen Year Old Diving Champion
When they reach the age of three
Noisy boys will shout with glee
Then quite soon when they are six
Play with trees and logs and sticks
Three more years at age of nine
They have more sense and toe the line
After twelve they’re slightly grumpy
Growing taller, not so dumpy.
Fifteen’s when they’re mostly horrid
Fighting, swearing, passions torrid;
Except a few more clever boys:
Working hard, they make less noise.
One of them is learning Spanish
But from school he’ll sometimes vanish
Around the world, splashing small
That’s how Tom Daley wins them all.
223. RAJS. Family trumps so much. I was going to say so what, but of course, there is CGT and the fact that it sounds like property speculation on the taxpayer.
181
James, you should know better than that!
Marta Andreasson was the Chief Accountant for the European Commission. She foudn the accounts were incorrectly kept and open to widespread fraud and so refused to sign off on the 2001 accounts. She also told her immediate superiors, then the Commissioner Michaele Schreyer and fuinally the Commission President Romano Prodi about her concerns and issued full reports to them but was completely ignored. The same response came from the EU Parliament’s Budget Control Committee.
Finally she went public and as a result was suspended and then sacked by that paragon of virtue Neil Kinnock. The official reason given for her dismissal was ‘disloyalty’.
RAJS.
Norwich North MP Ian Gibson went from home ownership to renting on doctor’s orders after suffering a stroke.
Expenses released by the city MP show that claims for mortgage interest payments ranged from £9,170.76 to a high of £11,429.64 in 2006/6.
But he moved to a rented flat closer to Parliament after suffering a stroke around 18 months ago.
Other the claims are very consistent with most linked to utility and council tax bills.
But the expenses also show that he made regular under the “repairs, insurance and security” heading ranging from £801 in 2007/8 to £1110 in 2004/5.
Dr Gibson said they were linked to his decision to sell up.
“I had three floods, and two break-ins and I was pretty fed up with it,” he said. “Since I have moved I am walking to Parliament and I am much fitter.”
226 - I do know who she is, it is just that I doubt that many non-anoraks would.
223 RAJS
Hmmm… he always seemed to be one of the best Labour backbenchers to me - very independently minded.
I am glad when useless MPs like Moran or Steen are shamed. But it is sad when otherwise exemplary MPs like Gibson show themselves to be troughers. How disappointing.
Six people is a bit of a large panel.
I think the expense scandal is now beginning to split into parties. It looks like the tories mainly have greedy idiots who buy stupid things. Whereas Labour are much more likely to be Enron style fiddlers and crooks (with made up mortgages and fiddling the taxman) I wonder if the public are nuanced enough to know that the pantomime villains (the Tories) are not nearly as corrupt as the corporate villains (labour).
Of course we also have the different approach from the parties in dealing with it. the Tory approach has largely been if they are caught they resign whereas Labour’s has largely been deny, deny, deny, and only under extreme pressure admit and if really pushed do something about it. It is not really a surprise as this is exactly how Gordon has fiddled the tax take via stealth tax and fiscal drag and exactly how he has acted when challenged about his own unnaceptable behaviour.
231 Then we have the LibDems who run the gamut from panto villains to those who we are asked to believe are giving up front-line politics for medical reasons (does sh*tting yourself at being found out count as a medical condition?).
223 RAJS
Just looking at Dale’s comment about QT having Bradshaw tonight and Beckett (disaster) last week. Who exactly is left to go on these programmes of any stature from Labour?
No chance (Macavity syndrome) - Brown G, Darling, Smith,
Too Tainted/in hiding - Hoon, Blears, Purnell, Straw, Woodward, Hope, Follett, Smith again
Too junior to matter - Cooper, Bradshaw, Woolas, Timms, Beckett, Flint, Dougie A
Too much for the public, 3% off Labour poll immediately - Balls, Brown G & N,
This appears to leave HMG as only able to leave the following to meet the public face-to-face - Mandy(!!!), Milibands (Ed mainly), Burnham, Harman (who is the Labour Vince it seems)
CH4 leading on Viggers. “hoist by his own canard”
C4 for dux’s sake - reference to 3 cabinet ministers and tax avoidance, with added millipede not wanting to be moved.
233/229 - see 227.
235 Good to see C4 getting their priorities right on the day that the UK economy headed a step nearer to junk status
CH4: Steen going at full rant…
237 - I think now is the time to revisit bananaman’s greatest QT hit..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rg6VlXVn3B8
238. MM. It hasnt yet even been a downgrade. It’s negative watch. And we are still a long way from junk.
232. Marquee Mark
The interesting point is he will still be chief executive until the Autumn! So if he is leaving due to health issues - why not go now
If the Government has to go to the country before Rennard goes he will become an issue!
The £2 Million plus Michael Brown donation is still an issue as well that Clegg has failed to show leadership on!
The Tories should be rubbing their hands with glee at LD inaction because the LD MPs caught with dodgy expenses have just become much easier to oust!
.
.
Is the Steen rant on Youtube? Please, Please.
240 Its bollox tim. Just a handy excuse for another trougher. Why do you insist on helping these swindlers out?
240 And this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNknWT-agT0
244 But we are nearer, Ken.
And WTF is “negative watch”? Do we take the economy’s belt and shoelaces off it???
248: aaahhh… memories… they don’t make programs like that anymore!
234 voreas: and the libdems are the boring ones - trouser press anyone
Milliband just said on ch4 he wants 6 years as Foreign Secretary, does he even have 6 weeks left? Question from John Snow “Will you be seen once again as ther Prince across the water”
“I’m determined to stay as Foreign Secretary until the General Election and beyond”
This reshuffle is either going to be a damp squib or very bloody. Prepare for squib.
242. I think we’ve found our first by election seat. Surely Cameron has to cast this con artist aside before the next election?
252 - Arrogant c0ck
Millipede wants to emulate Ernest Bevin, but spouting fluent b0llox, it is a good job that Millipede wasn’t facing the realities of the Cold War. Has he got some sort of nervous tick which means that he has to keep pounding the air with his right hand.
251 possibly, but perhaps they are too busy with their sex and drinks scandals to worry about fiddling the taxpayers in a theatrical way.
Silvio loses it with the papers…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/5360761/Berlusconi-rants-against-press-intrusion-in-models-life.html
228
as an addendum it is interesting to look at the list of quotes at the bottom and see the fates of people who dared to criticise the EU.
Marta Andreassen Chief Accountant- sacked for disloyalty
Jules Muis, the commission’s internal auditor - put on enforced “voluntary” sick leave and then retired
Paul van Buitenen, assistant-auditor in the European Commission’s Financial Control Directorate - suspended, had his salary halved and ordered to face disciplinary action.
These were people simply doing the job they were specifically hired for. But because the EU is such a thoroughly corrupt organisation and they refused to play along they were punished and lost their jobs.
And people wonder why there is so much opposition to the EU.
what… Joanna Lumley not to become an MP… someone start a petition!
Rennard quitting is good news for the Tories in Edinburgh South. Best price right now, PP 11/8
Apologies for the length of this post but I am tired of reading the litany of false political fixes being peddled claiming that this political fix or that voting system is going to fix our broken political system because there is only one fundamental solution which will (I will come back to it) fix it.
In particular, I have been intrigued by Paul Lloyd’s posts which seem purely aimed at undermining the major parties without expressing any views himself either to his political allegiances or what exactly he would favour doing. All he keeps saying is basically the system is broke and the main parties won’t fix it.
This sounds decidedly like something that someone supporting the lesser parties would say (likely one of the Liberal Democrats, Greens, BNP or even perhaps the SLP). In any case it has the odour of left of centre thinking (particularly as he refers to the Guardian) pounding out a message of constitutional problems and of voter disenchantment.
Of course he doesn’t come up with any explanation of why that may have been or provide any solutions. Well I will give my interpretation and leave it to others to come back at me.
Stating the obvious, politics is about power and who wealds that power.
It provides two political starting positions; those who believe in centralising power and those who believe in distributing power. Of course there are many positions in between where power is partially centralised and partially distributed.
Since the mid 1970’s the stock position of the British Government has been to centralise power taking it from lower levels of Government and handing it on to a supranational organisation the EU. The current Labour Government is probably the most centralist this country has ever had.
The effect of that has been to make those at the bottom of the chain of government (the voter) less and less influential and in fact all levels of government have been increasingly downgraded in terms of the power they hold as power is funnelled upwards to the highest level of Government (the EU) and the level most remote from the voter.
Is it any wonder then that voters become disillusioned and stop voting with comments like ‘they are all the same’ and ‘It won’t make any difference’? So much pwer has now been given away there is hardly any area for the multitude of parties to squeeze into. In addition the power has been passed beyond the point that the elctorate can have any substantive influence.
If you think about it 45 million British voters within the EU electorate provides somewhat less influence than the Liberal Democrats do in Westminster. No wonder people increasingly feel disempowered and disenfranchised. British people cannot influence 75 to 85% of the key decisions that are made about their country.
Consequently, much of the debate about reforming our political system and in particular things such as changing the voting system are irrelevant because all they do is shuffle the little power left at a particular level of Government between a variable number of political parties. Such changes will not re-empower voters.
Furthermore, by increasing the number of parties at a particular level all you do is dilute the influence of your vote and of the parties who weald the power. Similarly reducing the number of elected representatives at a level does the same.
Furthermore, ridiculous ideas such as pushing further power upwards and downwards simultaneously (Liberal Democrats, Greens? SNP) only create a void in the middle which will effectively act as a wall to any influence to levels of Government above the wall further disempowering people and making Government even more remote.
There is only one way to re-empower people and to re-engage them and that is to cascade power from the top of the political power tree down to its roots. So that means that the centralisation of the past 35 years has to be unwound to a point where the balance of power sits once again with the people and we return to the levels of turnout that were experienced between 1945 and 1975.
Now as most of those on the left support supra-national centralisation (except the national socialist BNP) then I cannot believe that anything Paul Lloyd says is going to re-empower people.
Of course I could be wrong and Paul Lloyd supports one of the two parties (Conservatives & UKIP) who are consistent in their policies in proposing to cascade power back to the people to some extent but I doubt Paul Lloyd supports one of them.
So, in conclusion, until powers start being recovered from the EU any other ‘improvements’ are no more than p*ssing into a headwind.
252
“I’m determined to stay as Foreign Secretary until the General Election and beyond”
= I have a cunning plan..?
253
Gin, much as I would like to see him go, again Cameron cannot force anyone to step down. He can withdraw the whip but that is the limit of his powers. If Steen choosezs to ignore the vilification then short of a criminal conviction he cannot be forced out.
Steen’s rant on WATO is the BBC’s top audio/video link. He is going to cost Cameron dear if he isn’t dewhipped very quickly.
261 - Agree the voting system is less relevant than where the power lies.
263. Richard, that’s not quite true. An MP can be expelled from the House, albeit it would take more than Cameron’s order for that to happen.
236 Looks like people will be shouting at him (Ian Gibson MP) in supermarkets again!
Hopefully not while I’m shopping but then again we have a lot of shouting in LIDL’s.
I think the key point is that he let them stay rent free in his flat while still claiming mortgage payments and while he rented another property. All seems a bit convoluted to me.
O/T - Suralan to make children cry…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/entertainment/2009/cannes_2009/8061937.stm
261. jsfl. Europe accounts for much of the legislation (although how one really measures the impact of said legislation is something I cannot imagine). However, its control over the public purse is limited, both directly and indirectly. The total budget of the EU is 1%ish of GDP - compare that to the UK’s defence budget or the totality of UK government spending.
So much of the political decision making is about redistribution - in all its myriad forms and here the UK government remains paramount.
I’m not saying that the EU isnt important - because it is - but I’m not sure that it is the transfer of powers upwards that has made people stop voting.
264 I agree however angry or bitter steen is at having his little private world of taxpayer privelege taken away from him ranting like that means he should go, Cameron should not accept him in the Conservative party any more, end of story.
261 “This sounds decidedly like something that someone supporting the lesser parties would say”
I assumed he was bunker-Labour. Off and on they’ve been trying to push the national government line for a while now.
tim you told me you only used Google for data searches. Can you tell me what you searched for on Gibson to get that quote?
Cammo will be pleased that the Tory vote is proving very resiliant if this poll is to be believed, despite half his MPs being caught in a sh#t storm.
I said at the start of all this that anything above 36% for the blue team is good news for Cammo - the fact that the lowest it has fallen so far is 39% is testament to his hard work and, yes granted, his acting skills in positioning himself as decisive and clean as a whistle.
.
.
jsfl writes: “Of course I could be wrong and Paul Lloyd supports one of the two parties (Conservatives & UKIP) who are consistent in their policies in proposing to cascade power back to the people” I cannot speak with authority about UKIP’s policy but the Conservatives have been the great centralisers. Local authorities were emasculated by the Thatcher/Major Government.
.
252. Our Great Leader has shown little appetite for reshuffles or moveing Ministers who fail to perform. In this he resembles Big Ears Blair who’s reshuffles were mediocre and always wanting.
But then the whole Cabinet are losers, Brown being the biggest loser of all.
re: 258,261 etc.
May I add that this is a key difference between expenses from Parliament and expenses from EU? Former is UK taxpayers’ money. Latter is UK taxpayers’ money repatriated.
.
.
If Cameron expels all the MPs like Steen who are unhappy, then it will be a very much smaller party!
273: cameron has not been acting ‘clean’ as it were. He has been very good at acting like a leader. THis is in marked contrast to GB over the last couple of years who has not been able to lead his own party let alone the country
260 - Sky Bet have the Lib Dems at an astounding 7-2 for Edinburgh South.
Steen is out and Cameron has got rid of him and most people will say good riddance and wasn’t Dave right to get shot of him. The ranting just shows how right Dave is.
People on the whole are less cynical than I and most of the posters here are.
269
Since the Germans now estimate that 80% of their law (and by implication a similar amount of ours) derives from the EU I suspect that the impact on British plitics is far greater than simply the amount of our budget they have to play with.
Plenty of people share the view that there is little point voting for anything at Westminster when our lives are so effectively dominated by Brussels.
262.
But I thought that Mandy was next in line for Foreign Secretary !!
According to the FT GB’s considering this master plan.
Mandy must have some really juicy scandal on GB to be getting this plum job. No doubt Rio de Janeiro will be his first foreign visit - cultural exchange !
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81e1b774-4582-11…144feabdc0.html
How much is this pussy cat claiming on Lords expenses?
One thing that struck me about Miliband’s weird comment is that he said “we’ve got a long way to go to beat Ernest Bevin’s record”. That must have been either the royal ‘we’ or else he seems to be suggesting he’s in some sort of de facto joint leadership with Brown. Either way he’s lost the plot.
262.
But I thought that Mandy was going to be Foreign Secretary !!!
According to the FT GB’s considering this master plan.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81e1b774-4582-11…144feabdc0.html
Re Mandy as Foreign Secretary
Here is theBrown considers Mandelson for Foreign Office
By George Parker, Political Editor
Published: May 21 2009 00:01 | Last updated: May 21 2009 01:17
Gordon Brown is drawing up plans for a cabinet reshuffle next month that could see Peter Mandelson promoted to foreign secretary in a damage-limitation exercise after the June 4 local and European elections.
Mr Brown’s allies say they expect Lord Mandelson, business secretary, to be given his dream job at the Foreign Office, taking the post once held by Herbert Morrison, his grandfather
extract
279. 7/2 is not outstanding if they are not going to win
282. Additionally, to imply that a gutless little twassock like himself has the stature and balls of Ernie Bevin shows a major disjoint with reality.
Quick points -
1. tim is right, this is a decent poll for Tories, and they should cheer up. A twelve point lead in the middle of endless revelations about privileged MPs is GOOD. It coulda been so much worse for the party of moats, porticos and duck gazebos.
2. Labour will likewise be relieved, ish; Lib Dems should be bitterly disappointed; when the euros unwind Tories will go back over 40
3. Anthony Steen is Jewish, not a classic English toff.
4. tim - again - er, it was a Labour MP who imported the Berber carpet
5. David Dimbleby has indeed turned a bit pompous of late
6. Can’t think of anything else
285 - True, but it does allow one to set up paired bets rather profitably! For a party that was in second place, 405 behind the incumbent, those are amazing odds.
286 - He is just setting out his stall not to be reshuffled, it is a pretty feeble attempt in my opinion.
284: I don’t understand this, How does making Mandelson Foreign Secretary help Brown?
I wonder if all the attention, certainly the ridicule being heaped on Steen/Viggars, could affect the perception of the Conservatives.
None of this shower should be allowed to use Bevin’s name in any way.
269. Ken. I wouldn’t disagree with that. Although that I think that is mainly thanks to Black Wednesday and the fact the British people would not accept it. However, it’s fair to say that in most areas basically all Westminster and local government are are conduits for Brussels policy. We may still have control of the money but we haven’t that much say in how we spend it anymore.
290. I agree, in 2009 is it right that the Foreign Secretary will not be held accountable, except by unelected Peers?
291 - Fractionally but the perception of a party is largely taken from the most visible member, usually the leader.
278. I don’t know - If Cameron does not follow through i will not be voting Tory!
Indeed I am reassesing my European Election vote. I am not going to be taken for granted and i can turn my Machine Gun on them as easily as anyone else.
I actually find the whole Westminister backroom deals etc extremley distastful and corrupt. What staggers me are the sheer number of MPs who are in it for the money/lifestyle. It is not just the MPs either, it extends to alsorts of areas and is just not on. We live in a country where the economy is rotten, the police are rotten, MPs are rotten and the political parties are rotten.
I take a very low opinion of folks who support this present political system for personal political progress and resist debate on rotten donations or effective misuse of political funds by rotten MPs. This country is starting to look increasingly like somewhere not worth living anymore as it has been badly served by the Labour government and the Tories & LD have been useless, happy to do F*ck all about serious issues. No wonder when they sit pretty and do F*ck all! MPs attending westminster for just 50% of votes and the like. Useless!
Stewart Jackson was the Berber carpet
288. And they have just suspended the market
280. Has Steen had his whip withdrawn?
Sky: Ian Gibson Lab Norwich North is standing down. Margaret Moran to appear before Parliamentary sleazebusters.
291. No, it helps them. DC has spoken, the axe has fallen. Which shows that being an old-fashioned shire grandee means bugger-all any more.
ch4: gibson to stand down
Gibson “offers” to stand down….
looks like the trickle could become a flood…
296. Next Martin Day blog - “Recovery Starts When Hogg Falls Into His Moat”?
291 - Thing is the ridicule is going to be less efficacious than the horror at the tax dodging. And the fact is that Steen is going nuts because he’s standing down. Blears, Hoon and Purnell are well known people who are trying to face this out. Cameron versus Brown is the contest in people’s minds. One of them is taking action on this, one isn’t. That is the key point.
274. Icarus if you bothered to read the whole post I said that all Governments over the last 35 years have been centralist.
295 - If they can get away with having him as Business secretary a much more activist position in the Cabinet particularly in a recession.
Question?
What on earth is Guido alluding to with the nudge-nudge, wink-wink with regards to Rennard?
290
It helps Brown insofar as it means he will not wake up one morning to find his head where his feet should be.
301. More loss of incumbency bonus for Labour. How many of their MP’s is it now who have said they won’t be standing?
298. I think you are right, tim. My bad.
There are so many MPs claiming for luxury antique rugs one gets confused. *Sir* Gerald Kaufman merely IMPORTED a £2000 rug from Manhattan, and demanded we pay for it the same day.
http://tinyurl.com/qat5hp
288 SeanT, you’re thinking of Gerald Kaufman’s slum adorning imported rug worth £1851, which was charged back to the long suffering taxpayer.
305. Red Meteor - At least he is not one of the Tories that goes on about single Mothers and benifit spongers etc! If somoone like John Redwood claimed something inappropriatley he would be a hypercrite of the highest order.
Hogg is quiting as an MP! He and his family have done very well out of it.
261 JSFL - Good rant!
311 - Incumbency bonus won’t exist in many seats this/next year. MPs who are clearly NOT on the take will beat the swing, that is all. It doesn’t look like too many at this rate!
291. ” I don’t understand this, How does making Mandelson Foreign Secretary help Brown?”
It doesn’t. It helps Mandelson - whose probably the one trying to persuade Brown that it helps Brown.
308. I think serious amount of flak, and overtime more damage to the government if Brown tried it. What happens if Israel did attack Iran? MPs would be furious that they would not be properly able to hold the executive to account.
Maybe Mandelson has friends working for the FT and it’s his last desperate attempt at spinning his way into one of the great offices of state - I’ll be amazed if it happened.
A special edition of Question Time:
Will they cage the audience?
311:
If you take in *all* labour MPs that won’t be standing in the next election (not just those for expensegate) it totals 46 (and counting).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2009/10
EDIT: that doesn’t count gibson
Gibson is such a disappointment.
He was the genuine article, a very smart and hardworking MP who voted with the courage of his convictions - and he seems to have screwed it all up out of pure greed.
307. All British governments have been centralist, it is the nature of a unitary state, in which all power flows from the crown through Parliament.
The Layfield Report in 1977 identifies exactly the same problems then as we have now in local government.
There is no concept of autonomy in local government, everything is at the mercy of parliament. My town had a constituted local government and a mayor along time before they got round to building a parliament in london, yet we are entirely subservient to the government.
C. It wasn’t so much of a rant as a rebuttle to a lot of the cheap opportunism of those peddling these non solutions to the woes of our political system. That said thanks I’m glad you enjoyed it!
318 - I’m not sure that it would be that bad.
279 - Sky Bet have the Lib Dems at an astounding 7-2 for Edinburgh South.
antifrank - are you sure? I can’t see where they have listed this seat. Mind you, it would be easier to check were they to list their seats in alpha order - at present they are all jumbled together.
322 - Indeed. In the UK power flows down from the Crown and never gets further from Buckingham Palace than Whitehall. We are effectively a feudal state with an overlay of plebiscites.
320. I reckon nearly all the implicated Labour ministers could fall at the next election: Purnell, Blears, Darling, Hoon, Straw (maybe), Smith, McNulty, Follett, Malik.
Not even the safest seat will be really safe against mounting voter anger. And the most high profile Labour MPs - i.e. ministers - will be the most obvious targets for revenge.
The first Labour Shadow Cabinet will be a very different beast to the last Brown Cabinet proper.
325 - It was, I got on, and as ScottP notes at 299, they now appear to have taken it down. I wonder if they got the Labour and Lib Dem odds confused.
323 JSFL - Well it was well said and I enjoyed it. I was being tongue in cheek about it being a rant!
Tim, regarding rugs Labour are not immune from Rug action
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5330816/Sir-Gerald-Kaufmans-1800-rug-and-an-8865-claim-for-a-television-MPs-expenses.html
A second-hand (lets hope there were no fleas) imported (from New York)for 1800. What one might expect from one of the tribunes of the people.
327: Indeed .it’ll be a labour version of 1997 with so many cabinet ministers losing their seats
Presumably Lord Carrington is the recent precedent for it to be OK to have your Foreign Secretary in the Lords (1979-1982).
Gibson - another MP to face the interrogators it would seem, whenever that might me, before or after the General Election? Might this simply be a cunning ploy by Brown to enable the electorate to sack Labour’s errant MPs rather than having to do the dirty work himself. Courage …. what courage?
Another pointer perhaps towards an Autumn GE.
280
According to Steen, Cameron didn’t get rid of him, in fact he was surprised to hear he was going. Steen went because of hostility by his constituents.
321. If you offer people loads of free money, of course they will take it.
326. ‘Feudal’ what rubbish - give up this schoolboy theorising, please.
333: PfP: The timing of the general election will be determined by one factor. Does the labour party have the courage to get rid of gordon brown. if they do it’ll be sooner if the don’t it’ll be in a years time (give or take)
Now this is more like it!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1185246/A-breath-fresh-air-The-MP-swapped-second-home–camp-bed-Commons-office.html
Make that woman PM, all MP’s should be doing that, especially Eric Pickles.
Just back from the doorsteps. That’s a reasonable poll for Labour - confirms the ICM report which looked like an outlier after YouGov and BPIX. The LD drop is distinctly odd - outside the MOE and I’ve no idea why.
Anecdote report: team doing mainly core Labour territory (prosperous semis in Beeston South): with all that’s happening we thought we’d check it’s still loyal. Seems to be. People distinctly concerned about expenses but seeing it as a nasty fact of national politics that wasn’t changing their votes. Three people previously down as ‘doubtful’ said they planned to vote UKIP, which they’ll struggle to do as UKIP don’t have a local candidate there, but it’s a straw in the wind - I don’t often meet explicit UKIP supporters.
322. Indeed I wasn’t aware of that report. The difference I suppose is that in 1977 most of the powers were held within the country now they are not and also that the population now is larger.
I’m, of the view that there is optimum population that a single centralised Government body can serve (using a concept along the lines of the Long Run Average Cost Curve & Economies and Diseconomies of scale). I suspect that we passed the optimum population figure for a centralised national government sometime prior to 1970. Consequently, any further centralisation after that point was damaging both to the political system and to the economy.
Handing powers upward to the EU only exacerbated the problem.
336 - One thing that we have learned about Gordon Brown is that he likes to try to wrongfoot people. I can imagine him calling an election at a time that he thinks will surprise David Cameron. For example, in his address to the Labour party conference (thus causing the Tory party conference to be cancelled).
331 I believe it was Paddy Power about a year ago who offered a market on how many Cabinet Ministers would lose their seats at the next GE - I recall my estimate was in the band around the 6 mark and I’m happy with that, just so long as Brown doesn’t beat me to it in his forthcoming reshuffle, but then he was never much of a sacker.
338 - Is there a BNP candidate in the area where the three doubtful UKIP supporters live?
337
Shame she’s going to lose her seat. Life really isn’t fair.
340: now that you mention it he does have previous…
like going to iraq during the tory party conference and announcing policies on troop withdrawl.
“outside the MOE and I’ve no idea why.”
Nick, at the current rate of polling we should expect a rogue about once every two months on average.
335 - Well it is possibly an exaggeration but we haven’t really advanced very far. Power really isn’t in the hands of the people to any great extent.
327. SeanT - Look at tonight’s result from the Salford by-election when we get it, that should give some indication.
337 thats looks like a dacre gimmick to me. the BBC did something very similar with Celia Barlow, she went on Breakfast tele telling us she was wonderful for commuting from Hove. Only to later discover that her travel allowance and communication allowance more than made up for her lack of second home claims.
338
If they are talking the Euros then of course there is a UKIP candidate.
Three down today, more to come tomorrow
James Forsyth 7:58pm
The expenses saga shows no sign of coming to an end. Today saw three departures from political life. The Tory Sir Peter Viggers is leaving Parliament at the next election to spend more time with his duck pond. Ben Chapman, a Labour MP, who over claimed on his mortgage is stepping down. And the Lib Dem campaign guru Lord Rennard is quitting as the party’s chief executive. Though, he claims this is not related to revelations about his expenses. Word is that tomorrow’s Telegraph will bring another set of embarrassing revelations. There are several backbench Tories in the frame apparently. As this story goes on, public anger grows. Although Cameron and Clegg have handled this crisis better than Brown, neither of them has been leading—as opposed to following—public opinion. But in the current circumstances one wonders whether any political leader can actually get ahead of the public’s anger.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3637893/three-down-today-more-to-come-tomorrow.thtml
346. No - it’s just nonsense. Feudalism has been dead in this country for at least five hundred years. There were kings before feudalism, and there have been kings since its demise.
And power is in the hands of the people in the UK to precisely the same degree that it is in any other constitutional democratic monarchy.
337. Coldstone.
Shame she didn’t do it 6 years earlier. She would have saved the Taxpayer £122,525 (approx £5k below max) in ACA.
So she realised she would get a hammering and started paying pennance early. It doesn’t stop it being nothing more than a cheap stunt by her.
Labour lies, Labour spins
Labour twists in the wind….
347. Hm, not sure. I don’t think a very-low-turnout council by-election will give us much clue to a General Election.
I can foresee, at a GE, otherwise apathetic or switched-off voters turning out in big numbers to give high profile sleazebags a kicking - esp Labour Ministers.
337. Did you read the comments?
Is planning permission needed for someone to sleep in an office?! Seriously, this lady is fantastic ! But I dread to think of the Elfen Safety Ossifers who will get off on one - does her ‘bedroom’ have an external window, adequate ventilation, smoke alarm, means of escape etc etc ….. I wouldn’t mind betting that this commendable example of thrift will have some officious little twerp kicking off and creating a whole new range of quasi-important ‘jobs’, quangos and committees to look into the practice.
- helly, kiinver, UK, 21/5/2009 12:39
There is much still to unfold before a general election. Most of it will not favour Labour.
Here is Ian Gibson’s interview with BBC Look East
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/8062395.stm
EDIT: from that interview it doesn’t sound as though he WILL be stepping down; just that he would if his constituents asked him to.
Anthony Steen will not be missed by anyone:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/05/anthony-steen-mp-apologises-for-world-at-one-interview.html
342: yes, there’s the same BNP candidate as lost a quarter of their vote in another ward in our Feb by-election - I think he’s my prospective opponent. He’s a pub landlord in Brinsley (Sadie Graham territory). Sadie’s just been disqualified for 6 months’ absence, so we’ll have a by-election in Brinsley in July. The BNP brand there’s a bit tarnished but they’ll still have a go.
Sorry to see Gibson going - he was one of the main backbenchers last year trying to ditch Brown..
Time for some Champers at No. 10 and probably Cameron’s too!
Has anybody done a more comprehensive heatmap of expenses than the april07-may 08 one. I would like to see who consistently has been troughing. Alternatively if anyone has the 5 years subtotal data and a constituency boundary map. perhaps I can have a go, could be interesting.
For JFSL and Ken, and others who may be wondering: Paul Lloyd is a long-standing contributor to pbc from days of yore, and is most certainly a Lib Dem.
358. You have to wonder what goes through some peoples minds, not turning up to Council meetings.
I know how intense and bitter political opponents can be however, some local councils have chambers that are like mini bear pits, in which quite ferocious political intimidation goes on. When there is a few of you, its ok, but if you are on your own, it can be a nightmare.
In terms of the BNP, the individuals musnt have been aware of just how terrible it can be, a larger party can have weaker members, as others compensate, but if you are the only one there, you have to take all the venom yourself.
I don’t know if anyone has seen the Daily Show link mentioned by Iain Dale.
Jon Stewart has come up with a name for the scandal: Scamalot
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=228030&title=scamalot
Wow. SNP at 4%. That’s good. Very good.
359. scrapheap -That Newnight where he spoke of being shouted at in supermarkets was funny though!
I think he was saying he was shouted at because of Brown and the economy! No change there then!
I would say at least he is honest but i cannot anymore! He genuinely believed in socialism though IIRC which even though i do not share his view was a good motivation. Such figures as this been taken in by expenses to my mind notches another point on this discredit “Democracy” we currently have.
As i said before the shear scale of the dishonesty is dire! It discredits everything and everybody in the system fairly or unfairly.
hmmmm, are Batman’s (1960s Adam West vintage) arch enemies the Jury Team not showing up in polling yet?
How elastic is the protest vote? Will it be spread so thinly amongst the plethora of ‘anyone buts’ out there that seat wise the Euro’s go very much to plan.
Similaraly at a GE - the indy’s surely will mainly ensure an anti-government dividend a la Jimmy ‘Clap the Mellor out, out, out’ Goldsmith’s Referendum party?
358 - I suspect that is the answer to your mystery then.
365 I believe his exact phrase Martin was (in erudite Scots accent)
‘Well Jeremy, it’s certainly no fun when you are being shouted at in Supermarkets as I have been this week’
366. I noticed Ester ranson speaking from the Jury platform yesterday.
She is just not very inspiring IMO and she has picked the wrong seat! Tories and LD are unlikely to stand aside! If it had been normally as afe seat then fair enough but a key marginal is pointless.
355
oldrightie
TOO TRUE
My crude analysis of markets suggests that the Dow will eventually recover to c 9700 by end July ? August? . Corresponds to FTSE 100 being around 4900-5000. Green shoots , recovery and all that. (and ABC correction) And Labour will claim recovery and think elections can be winnable..if the Tory lead just slips a LITTLE more.
It will become clear this is premature and we will then go to the final stage of the bear market which should last approximately..12months to late 2010 and will see really savage and dreadful falls to my target FTSE 2500 or below..
If this scenario is true - and it follows typical bear market patterns and assumes real recovery in the real economy is early 2011, the polling for the Government will deteriorate rapidly as each month brings worse and worse bad news.
(It is possible the way the US dollar and Treasuries ate falling that the US may be unable to finance its debt requirements.)
If no GE is held this year before September and is delayed until May 2010 Labour will look back at today’s polling in the mid 20%s and see an opportunity missed. I can see Labour polling in the mid teens if I am correct.
I would expect the BNP (or UKIP or Greens) to pick up 5-6% from Labour to give them 10% or so.
366 - no but the Joker party will soon be polling more than LDs.
Oops I forgot - its the same party!
345. RodC. Rogue polls will be far more common because the variance of voting will be much higher than present models allow for. If the polling firms want reliable polls, they should increase the sample size and the geographic spread dramatically. Why? Because any poll that hits Scunthorpe is going to find that Labour voters are really peeved. Ditto Bracknell for the Conservatives and so on.
368.
It was the pained look on his face as well! 
363. Fantastic. Why havent we had anything so witty here????
Dropped by to wish Nadine Dorries many happy returns of the day and was struck by her take on the expenses issue as written on her blog
Extract
The Telegraph are uncovering a few cases of fraud, but not enough, so they are more than slightly embellishing some of the stories. I write as a case in point.
Enter the Barclay brothers, the billionaire owners of The Daily Telegraph.
Rumour is that they are fiercely Euro sceptic and do not feel that either of the main parties are Euro sceptic enough. They have set upon a deliberate course to destabilise Parliament, with the hope that the winners will be UKIP and BNP.
A quick online check of the Barclay brothers and their antics on the Island of Sark is enough to give this part of the rumour credence.
Another rumour is that the disc was never acquired and sold by an amateur, but it was in fact a long term undercover operation run by the Telegraph for some considerable time, carefully planned and executed; and that the stories of the naive disc nabber ringing the news desk in an attempt to sell the stolen information are entirely the work of gossip and fiction.
These rumours do have some credibility given that this has all erupted during the European Election Campaign and turn out is expected to be high with protest votes, courtesy of the Daily Telegraph, or should I say the Barclay brothers.
“Word is that tomorrow’s Telegraph will bring another set of embarrassing revelations. There are several backbench Tories in the frame apparently” Coffee House@Spectator
Question Time on at 9pm.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/default.stm
361. Many thanks A H. I had a feeling he was one of those who speak with forked tongue over issues relating to our political system (i.e. the localist-centralist party).
375 Has she been talking to Norman ‘Mulder’ Baker?
Tim@298
Why dont you do a Patrick (West Ham Supporter) and put real information behind your tag. (Eg “Tim,Dim,Spin,huffin,puffin, truffin,tupackin,unthinkin,hectorin,bore)
You have posted the same c*ap a dozen times to day, its not funny, its dead boring and and those who are contemptuous of you are spot on.
And to think the shite you post will be in the national archive. Well I suppose it will amply demonstate how odious Labour were post 1997, and even more especially post Blair.
375: pure spin…
Just been thinking about the forthcoming reshuffle, what are people’s thoughts on Alan Milburn making a return as Home Secretary?
376 - Makes one wonder when it is all going to end, doesn’t it? Certainly reinforces Mike’s earlier point that, on the Conservative side, this could really be a bonanza for new faces seeking safe seats.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5363997/MPs-expenses-Peter-Luff-shopped-till-he-swapped-then-started-again.html
375
Fascinating to see a deranged mind at work.. Occam’s razor applies for all conspiracy theories.
(If true, why have none of the Telegraph’s opponents run with it?)
384
He should enter the “troughing for England” Competition.
382 James - Prize porker yet to be dissected by the Telegraph
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/alan_milburn/darlington#expenses
That’s what I think……..
Hardly in the new spirit of the New Parliament is it?
just saw gurkhas on sky news giving three cheers to gordon brown while he sat there grinning. the man is shameless
Fair point,MTF (and many congrats on the likelihood that Fulham will finsih 7th).
I think the only thing I have not divulged about myself is the road I live in- circa 3 weeks ago ,to anyone good-ish with google maps,I admitted where I live within 100-200 metres.(I vaguely recall a converstaion with Rik W,poster and old school colleague that we did admit each others roads)
In this day and age I feel its responsible to not admit my exact location,to the nearest road!
384 lol. Telegraph exclusively reveals that MPs could claim household items on their expenses.
He appears to have taken advantage of that opportunity though with some gusto.
dimbleby’s awful tie again
Just 2 thoughts: Who are these idiots (traitors?) who will still vote to destroy Britain by voting for the worst govt in our lifetime under the arch idiot Brown? And–why won’t Nick Palmer publish his expenses? This parasite of a useless mp who ‘always travels first class’ is running scared.
386: he’s number 1! (joint first in ACA 3 out of 4 years!)
P.S I look back with misty eyes now at Tony Blair; George Osborne;s observation that ‘Gordon Brown would be an effing awful PM ‘ has proven pretty damned accurate
390. no self righteous alibi brown.
thet’s the term people will be using in history books for years to come…
‘the duck island parliament’
classic!
Why are we not looking closer at Brown? He claimed for a flat that he owned while he was lioving in a tax payer funded flat. The man is a crook.
Cameron’s wisteria getting slated on QT.
392 - It wasn’t George Osborne who said that though he would doubtless agree; it was Labour’s own John Hutton.
392 But for all his faults Brown falls well short of Blair as a war criminal - hence , in terms of sheer evil he is not in the same league at all!
391. Spud. Indeed the Telegraph has plenty of targets left yet. Although Milburn is behind John Bercow, Beverly Hughes (both on the max 6 years on the trot) and our own resident MP by around £300 in the all-time list.
396: and milliband
Parliament of Pigs
Parliament of Porkers
Parliament of Thieves
395. I see the BBC has selected it audience carefully as usual.
400. Ken. The Porker Parliament (although I prefer the Rotten Parliament). After all it is not just the exes.
Martin Bell the ‘Independent’ (Labour) Candidate’s looking good in the white suit.
Why are QT audiences always the most horribly obnoxious people on the face of the earth?
Steen haunts the Tories…
Gibson story:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5363845/Ian-Gibson-offers-to-stand-down-over-his-MPs-expenses-claims-for-London-flat.html
404: because it makes better tv
Hague not doing well- which is a bit of a first as he is usually so on the ball:(.
404 Because that is what the Great British Public is really like! At least, those who are interested in politics……
406: the full interview (on look east) is here
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/8062395.stm
Difficult to use QT as an accurate gauge of true public opinion because they never really have an ‘audience’ at all; it’s more of a perpetually baying mob of ill-mannered malcontents, though I concede not without some justification considering some of the revelations of recent days.
A lot of knitting women and pitchfork wielding men in tonight’s QT audience.
408 Dimblebore is directing most of the flak at Wee Willie.
408 Not doing well because everyone is so pissed off.
Nobody can defend the indefencible.
Patrick at 380 I wasnt having a go at you, I am happy with your tag(I think it needs updating a tad, are you moving one way or the other???). I am just bored with the endless repetition of Tim’s posts. Every now and again however,I feel the need to point out the the crashing bore that Tim is.
BTW
Thanks about Fulham, I really hope Roy Hodgson gets Manager of the year. If there were any justice he would, but these are uncertain times..
406 The troughers are finally starting to fall in numbers.
How long before the tide reaches the Cabinet?
MP:
Mugger Public
Maximum Porker
Member Porcine
Peter Luff MP in the frame £17,000 on furnishing two homes including 3 toilet seat, 1 more than Prescott.
Piety seems to be good for hair quality in Martin Bell’s case.
417. Make’em Pay!
maximus profilgatus
417:
Master Plunderer
418. Incoming Clay-Pigeon Alert!!!!
Load… Aim…
FIRE!
Palace of Swindleminster
Maximum Payoff
Maximum Pay
221 - I heard a part of that speach, amusingly enough the part where he claimed we had low debt
S + P obviously not on message.
411 AHM. Good Evening Mi Lord Beaconsfield !!
How goes the yellow peril man trapping operation in your neck of the woods ??
414 - True enough, but it is a credit to him for having the bottle to go on in the first place. I’m sure he knew what sort of reaction he was likely to confront.
is that the best labour could come with - bed bradshaw’s response to why no election? jeez
Maximum Plunderer
426 - Greetings, Jack. All is well here in the Conservative fief of Beaconsfield, but keeping the yellow vermin out requires eternal vigilance as I’m sure you know.
I cannot see the government been allowed to continue without an election for more than a few months.
Model Philanthropist
(such a shame there isn’t an irony emoticon….)
430 AHM. Tagging of Lib Dem voters may be necessary for the effective governace of the realm !!
375. She could be right. I must say I’m starting to feel that we (the public) are being manipulated by the Telegraph.
The moral authority argument will win through - election within 3 months
Martin Bell seems to think that the “Duck Island Parliament” is a pithy, apposite phrase that’s going to catch on. I have my doubts.
431: if the government can make it to the summer it’ll not be until the autumn (at the earliest)
Mid Worcestershire (Peter Luff (c))
Telegraph Gain.
Why dont all the mp’s who so far have not been named just release all their expenses just to get it over with?
Luff will be stepping down at the next election then.
Mindboggling Pisstake
Mid Worcs pretty safe tory seat - IIRC he did a chicken run from the old seat which included Redditch when it shrank around Redditch itself (Which if you have enever been there is a horrific poor man’s Stevenage :-0 )
Actually that might have been Eric Forth RIP. Where’s Andrea when you need him?
439 - Because they are hoping the Torygraph will get bored before getting to them I guess.
That stupid woman going on about the BNP winning seats, WTF! She says thats the reason a GE should not occur. If the BNP were going to take loads of seats now, then leaving it a year will make that number double as people get more pissed off!
She is the woman on the newspaper reviews who always spouts Labour dogma!
It was Forth - sorry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid_Worcestershire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Big boundary changes it seems
Martin Bell is a pompous ass.
441 - To be honest, I didn’t think they’d be able to sustain public interest this long, but it shows no signs of abating yet.
Luff chicken ran TO mid Worcs from Worcester itself, where he was beaten in 1997 by the odious Fox’s friend Michael Foster and his famous horde of newly New-Labour voting “Worcester women” taken in by that nice Mr Blair.
I will now stop as I doubt anyone cares
444 Unfortunately, he wasn’t always a pompous ass - Westminster did that to him. Let that be a lesson to us all.
One week, I’ll actually not watch QT.
It’ll probably do me good.
448: won’t you get withdrawl symptoms?
448 I am watching the programme about the Poets Laureate, and relying on the rest of you to keep me informed.
This Ben Bradshaw seems quite impressive, for a Labour MP anyway.
That women, so spot on.
If, big if, if this QT is representative of the GB electorate, then a revolution is coming.
444. Martin Pompous.
451. He just got duffed up by the woman at the front!
444. You could argue his election (martin Bell)and intervention in 1997 created the circumstances for these expenses to be so abused by giving Labour a majority so large and and such a split in opposition Tory 165 seats and LD about 50 (Until 2005).
That women on the question time flawed Bradshaw and he made a gaffe he thinks they have done too little too late!
Dimbleby has worn that tie on QT before.
Once seen, never fogotten…
Why does Ben Bradshaw keep nodding when people say he’s talking crap?
Con gain everything!
MP = Moat Plumbed
MP = Mindless Panic
Given the voter alienation, I have doubled up on the William Hill EU election turnout market, betting on both 30-35% and under 30%. Last time round, UK turnout was 38.9%. Is it imaginable that it will be as high this time, given how hacked off the public are?
MP = Mostly Pig
Ben Bradshaw is taking the proverbial - continually making himself out to be the sole fighter for openess and transparency in the HoC.
This enormous public anger on QT is largely being targeted at Labour.
ben bradshaw
Voted moderately for a transparent Parliament
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/ben_bradshaw/exeter
edit:
Nice to see he’s not overplaying his record TOO much. (and why he didn’t want to talk about it.
Mr Luff next to go in the Telegraph - hope I am not miles too slow.
442- If the BNP did in fact gain a few seats (which seems like a moronic suggestion, but anyway…), would the foundations of democracy come crashing to the ground?
464 according to theyworkforyou he voted moderately for transparency
453 ‘…then a revolution is coming.’
HB, if I was an MP I’d be very afraid. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise were one to be attacked in the street or have their home ransacked by a baying mob.
MPs = LOL!!
MP = Making Piles (of cash)
On the Dorries theory has anyone a view on how Eurosceptic the Conservative targets have been (Theyworkforyou doesn’t tell you)?
Its a well renouned theory that most Conservative PPC’s are strongly Eurosceptic.
Whilst it may be just another conspiracy theory it could also be that the Telegraph does have a hidden agenda and given the timing something to do with the EU is an obvious motive.
Is it me, or is it as hostile as last week’s colisseum entertainment in Grimsby?
Also, what are we to think of the concern of Nadine Dorries, in her blog of the suggestion, that members are worried of a possible suicide?
Could that really happen - and could that in itself cause significant problems in the short term?
463. Ted. Sounds like a description of a sausage…
Ben Bradshaw is coming across like a cowardly schoolboy, blaming everyone else, trying to compare himself to Martin Bell, looking around for approval. He’s not on to defend Labour but just himself. He is a crawlin’ sleekit wee golum.
Missing Person (Gordon McCavity Brown).
470. EdP. I was thinking a bunch of angry yokels armed with shotguns, pitchforks, flaming torches and BIG CHAINSAWs attacking Anthony Steen’s house.
if you’re interested
William Hague
Voted a mixture of for and against a transparent Parliament
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/william_hague/richmond_%28yorks%29
Vince Cable
Voted moderately for a transparent Parliament
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/vincent_cable/twickenham
You know this QT audience is quite a good one they are no longer falling for the rubbish that Martin Bell spouts, they didn’t applaud Joanna Lumley as MP. I think and hope people are as sick of sanctimonious celebrities as they are of MPs. What is really needed is more democracy a la Douglas Carswell. I think Cameron should grab this part of “the plan” and make it his own. and this would also get rid of the left reform agenda(PR etc).
468. No the whole system would not coming crashing down.
The problem with the main parties whipping up the BNP Boggy Man is as the BNP creep towards holding more seats and power the reasons people say the BNP should not be let in melt away. In other words the folk who want to stop it are doing it in a way that help builds up in the end.
478 Leave the trees unharmed Ken, they serve a useful purpose! I bet the mock beams on Two Bogs Hull mansion would burn a treat.
MP = Mallard Protector/Profiteer
Ben Bradshaw = Che Guevara
476.He’s trying to save his skin. Hopefully the good folk of Exeter will see through it and give him his P45. Sadly I’m no longer within the city walls and will miss out on the pleasure of waving him off.
On Worcs-related chat earlier - it’s worth mentioning that LDs are in line to gain Worcestershire West given that outgoing Spicer is incredibly unpopular and the new Tory candidate is very weak. However, clearly LDs lose Hereford.
Martin Bell is a total chump.
Martin’s Peerage.
Isn’t Bradshaw looking outdated in his blairite ways and mannerisms.
468 - No. It would be a great shame on this country though.
For those interested in a theoretical money-making opportunity (which would probably be worth it if you think the election is going to be very soon), bet on the BNP winning a seat with William Hill (8/1) and bet on Labour winning Barking with Victor Chandler (2/9). It’s hard to imagine anyone but the BNP really challenging in Barking. However, I’m not doing this myself, because the returns just don’t look good enough for the time that the money might be locked up and the outside chance that the Tories might win Barking.
My Porn (on expenses)
485 he will be out before exeter make their way back to league 2 next season!!!
Actually probably not because exeter will be down before 06.05.2010!
That stupid f*cking women on QT winds me up the one who comes and does the BBC News 24 panel on saturdays IIRC. She really winds me up! I cannot stand the stupid F*cking mere!
This Marta Andreasen woman is great. I wish UKIP weren’t so right-wing and barmy about climate change. Otherwise I could well vote for them.
Hague reckons Martin should only be ennobled if he’s going to be an active peer and turn up every day to claim his £300. Sigh.
If the BNP are going to win a seat i’d suggest stoke as a possibility. currently having 9 councillors there
491.I’m a QPR fan!!
492 Yasmin alibhi brown by any chance.
I know what you mean.
474. Robert. There have been rumours that three Labour MPs have been put on ’suicide watch’ because not only have they potentially abused their expenses but they have also screwed up their marriages ,literally, as well (courtesy of the Daily Mail of course).
As for the truth of it we will just have to wait and see………
486 - You are referring to Harriett Baldwin? All the (admittedly limited) reports I have had from West Worcs suggest that she as been doing very well and has had plenty of time to bed in. I’d be interested to know what you are hearing that suggests otherwise?
493 - She’s obviously got lousy judgement or she wouldn’t keep mixing with such dubious company. First, the EU bureaucracy and now, UKIP.
496 I’m watford!
So QPR = LOL!
497. Voreas. You mean she who is terrified of the English?
Dan Hannan to appear on QT next week!. Congrats to all those PBers who got on!
Hannan is on Question Time next week.
Well done all who took that bet!
591: could be worse… I’m norwich
501. I had noticed on the odd occasion.
Most Profli-gate.
cable,came over as a prat on the last answer he gave.
495 - The combination is really about the Barking seat and is a proxy for betting on the two leading contenders for less than 100%. If other seats offer similar opportunities, so much the better, but I haven’t seen a Stoke seat priced up yet.
497. Yes thats the one - Silly cow!
Ian Gibson also accused of dodgy behaviour.
503 - rah rah rah! But it was an unwonted lapse by shadsy. With the EU elections coming up, he was a racing certainty.
Telegraph Backing Widdie?
Ann Widdecombe is the people’s choice to be the next Speaker
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5363326/Ann-Widdecombe-is-the-peoples-choice-to-be-the-next-Speaker.html
Woo Dan Hannan on QT, drinks are on me
Not a particularly edifying QT, but one interesting point sticks in my mind.
Martin Bell was a MP from 1997 to 2001. He said he was never told about the John Lewis list and thought that then there was only limited but individual abuse. He went on the say standards had more recently slipped and there was now wide spread systemic fiddling.
If that is indeed the case, the past 8 years are when matters deteriorated. We do need to know how this occured and who allowed it to happen.
Bradshaw and Cable were strong tonight. Hague was weak. UKIP woman didn’t really get much of a say. Martin Bell got far less applause than I thought he would. Yasmin Alibhai-Brown going for the easy populist option every time.
505 so you WILL play exeter next season - but only for next season…
514. The drinks are on Shadsy
All the panellists who said anything remotely nice about Martin have gone down in my estimation.
517.And Leeds!
Re 513. Looks like it:
Telegraph go after Beith and Bercow!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5364319/MPs-expenses-cover-up-of-Ian-Gibson-and-his-daughters-cut-price-flat-deal.html
Step up Bercow and Beith and Tory Anne Main…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5364319/MPs-expenses-cover-up-of-Ian-Gibson-and-his-daughters-cut-price-flat-deal.html
517: that depends on whether they stay up or not
Reading it sounds awful - I think most of the others who let their children stay there have been unfairly accused but this looks a lot worse.
500. If she’s an auditor, joining the European bureaucracy to try and clean it up would have been a noble thing to do. I think seeing the flagrant corruption up close would be enough to drive anyone to join UKIP.
Where are some watching QT before it is broadcast on BBC1? Thanks in advance.
Is that the Martin Bell (Independent Anti Sleaze) who was the de facto sock puppet of Alistair Campbell through the 1997 General Election campaign? Independent? No - smugly liberal anti-Tory and washed up has been.
526: you just missed it
486 Elephant man
Hard to see how non-incumbent LDs will gain tory seats against a national swing to the tories, seems very unlikely.
What %age of voters do you think form a view as to the “weakness” or otherwise of the candidates? single digits I would say.
People vote for the party in practice, and the MP only in theory. These days they may well vote AGAINST incumbents, but that is different.
If Spicer is unpopular, maybe people who didn’t vote for him in 2005 will vote tory now? Sounds like you have local knowledge though! Isn’t Tenbury Wells in Worcestershire West now? Know it quite well
Just watching the news, i didnt realise the Government had completely given in in regards to the Gurkhas. The statement in Parliament was probably more generous then necessary, essentially completely surrendered, saying any gurkha who has served four years can retire here.
An incredible climb down. I invited a local nepalese man i know, who is a retired Gurkha to our Annual Council Meeting earlier this week, with civic reception. I had queues of people coming up to congratulate him and his comrades. The other ex servicemen present, falling over themselves to tell stories of the bravery and professionalism of his regiment.
Ben Bradshaw utterly shameless throughout - trougher turned wannabe reformer.
Hague was OK but struggled at points - I get the feeling he wanted to say more at times - perhaps rather beyond what DC has already said or done.
Cable was OK, but did nothing to make me think more of him - he is still a vastly overrated politician
Alibi-Brown - should not be allowed near an opinion
UKIP woman - Might as well have had John McCririck
Martin Bell - Ugh
Bercow is a flipper, Beith is a double-dipper. It’s down to Widdecombe or Field out of the declared possibles.
522. Not enough detail on Bercow’s claim - it says he flipped from constituency to a £540,000 flat in London, but in itself not enough to convict him. Ian Gibson is in breach of the rules and should pay it back. Anne Main also looking very dodgy. And this Luff guy - 10 sets of bed linen? WTF has that to do with his parliamentary duties?
I see a member of the Labour Party got picked by Dimbleberry early on. Wisteria is bullshit. Why no mention of Brown’s Sky subscription and how come that arsehead from the audience forgot all about flipping?
Anyway, my take:
Hague did well after a tricky start where he was stitched up a bit. Dodged the Speaker-peerage nonsense with waffle.
Bradshaw was quite good but buggered up pretending he was Martin Bell’s partner in fighting for freedom too much.
Yasmin Uglyface thinks we shouldn’t hold elections if the ‘wrong’ people win. She was and is a clown of epic proportions.
Telegraph ahoy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5364319/MPs-expenses-cover-up-of-Ian-Gibson-and-his-daughters-cut-price-flat-deal.html
as well as Ian Gibson we have
- Sir Alan Beith, the first MP to put his name forward for the post of Speaker, claimed £117,000 in second home allowances while his wife, Baroness Maddock, claimed £60,000 Lords expenses for staying at the same address. Sir Alan is a Liberal Democrat MP.
• John Bercow, a Tory candidate for the Speaker’s chair, faces questions over his expenses claims after he “flipped” his second home from his constituency to a £540,000 flat in London and claimed the maximum possible allowances.
• Peter Luff, a Tory MP, bought three lavatory seats, three food mixers, two microwaves and 10 sets of bed linen while kitting out his country house and London flat at taxpayers’ expense.
Having watched:
Bradshaw looked haggard and tired
Martin gets a peerage and we see a revolt
Hague was weak.
Cable said all flippers must leave Parliament.. ALL.. (so Beith is a gonner?)
Audience very well behaved : carefully selected I think..
Fun and games ahead.
526 Brought forward by public demand. Much like the Guillotine…
The next Speaker’s market really is a mug’s game. Most of us have nothing like enough information to judge sensibly. Dodgy expenses claims are just part of that.
523 norwich?!!!
Hannan 5/2 yippee
539 - *stares coldly*
539: yes I know we’re a joke but it still my team
540 - He’d have been a decent bet at 2/5 after his impressive EU Parliament speech in an EU election year. Perhaps it was shadsy’s act of charity for the year.
538
Well as Beith and Bercow are now flippers, they are both toast…
542 sorry didnt mean it in a nasty way!
I’m watford so we are used to shyte!
You’ll be back up next season!
535. Keep on voting for Speaker
http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=Speaker
(or click on my UserId)
In previous years I have twice applied to be in Question Time audiences, and both times I didn’t get a ticket. Now, Dimbleby tels us that QT is going to be in Croydon in two weeks’ time. I’m not sure that I even want to be in a QT audience any more. I don’t usually watch it and it’s so vacuous and predictable.
Bercow: allegations sound quite tame - I am no fan but I am not sure most of his [Labour] supporters will care. Weak attack unless they can prove he did it for some other gain [CGT, furniture etc] or was a serial flipper.
Luff sounds like a gonner.
Beith: quite a lot worse than Bercow. Will probabaly be fatal for him for Speaker.
AHM - the very same HB. I hear the Tory association are very worried after some weak recent performances.
The LibDem candidate is set to sell his “Midlander” background heavily and only a very small swing is required. There are demographic factors as well.
HB should have gone for Folkestone!
547- There’s an application?
536 - Hague was weak.
Cable said all flippers must leave Parliament.. ALL.. (so Beith is a gonner?)
Is Beith a flipper?
536. I was surprised by that too. Cable effectively said Hoon, Darling, Blears and even Briwn himself should stand down. Does Clegg agree?
I saw Ben Bradshaw recently - agree he looks ill now. He’s aged about 15 years in the last 4.
544, what makes you say that?
The rumour is/was that the PLP would vote en mass for Bercow for tribal reasons to piss off the Tories. Given they’ve got umpteen flippers in Cabinet I don’t think they’d mind having one in the Speaker’s chair.
I’m not saying I think he’s likely, let alone a dead cert, merely that this may not scupper his chances.
544 Beith is not a flipper, he’s a double-dipper
Main looks rather iffy
Gibson is a goner
551. No he dipped with his wife!
norwich - wasn’t that serviceman’s slang to encourage their sweethearts to be ready for their homecoming…
How far does QT resemble Songs of Praise with bus loads brought into to swell the congreation. It often appears to have a rent a crowd ambience.
Incidentally, I see that the title for this is “PB exclusive”.
OGH has the pollsters eating out of his hand.
Perhaps proof that If you build it, they will come (sometimes).
433 - we don’t stand still long enough to be tagged.
AHM - one for you (and Martin Day). Out canvassing this evening I met a wonderful old chap who described himself as an “unreconstructed right-wing Tory”. He then went on to tell me how impressed he was with Nick Clegg, and howhe hoped our parties would be in coalition after the next election. I kid you not!
540 Tim 1/10 smear within 2 hrs.
555. With the slight caveat on Beith if he and his wife have been paying a portion each. With the telegraph I wonder if they even checked that much.
If they have been double claiming then send him for the high jump imho.
558 was he confusing Clegg with Neil Kinnock?
560, has any Lib Dem had the whip withdrawn/suspended, been demoted or agreed to stand down at the next election?
I appreciate they have fewer offenders, but they don’t have none.
QT does have the ambience of a rent a crowd meeting, and often it seems to have a ‘pre-selected’ question group - too many articulate pressure group members for k.o.
S&P say there’s a 30% chance we’ll be downgraded - what an appalling situation this Government has brought us to.
The wisteria is going to haunt Cameron well into his Prime Ministership.
May have been a wonderful tactical move to repay the chimney cleaning bill - with the contrition starting from the top - but maybe a strategic mistake, given the Telegraph had already given him a clean bill of health.
554. MD. We dont have enough details about Bercow. But if he did a bad flip, he cannot be Speaker. No matter what the cabinet is doing, the Speaker must be white - so that he (or she) is able to be the representative of the Commons.
562. Off the top of my head, Rennard’s going and people are paying money back. I don’t think anyone’s gone beyond that afaik.
On reflection I think Hague was doing the same as Theresa May last week. Answer questions, keep your head down and avoid too much controversy. It might not have “impressed” anyone but no one will be talking about that “dreadful Tory” on Question Time. Contrast to Bradshaw who foolishly (in the sense that he had judged the mood wrong) tried to hold the moral high ground and pretend that his party hasn’t had a sizeable majority for the last twelve years. I think it may well prove to be a sensible approach in this febrile atmosphere.
Doesn’t Widdecombe running actually help Bercow?
That is, by fractionating the Tory vote, which by all accounts is NOT going to JB.
On the other hand, Bercow is apparently the toast of Labour. So wouldn’t it make more sense for rightwing Tory types to talk up say Frank Field rather than AW?
565, but that assumes competence and integrity are the prime movers of Labour’s voting approach. Their instinct to back Bercow for tribal regions runs contrary to that.
559 5p stake limit.
God I’ fed up with expenses. Becoming very tiresome, just wish the Telegraph would hurry up, expose all them that need it and boot them out. Then we can get back to talking about economic collapse.
559 -
MTF
1/100 He knows nowt about politics.
1/100 He knows nowt about betting.
1/100 He campaigned for David Mellor.
561 - no, that’s Martin Day, bless him.
567, I was irked nobody pointed out rather forcefully Labour’s had an enormous majority for over a decade. I think Dimbleby pointed it out weakly, once.
564 It makes a useful distinction - Cameron has one maintenance claim in 8 years which he has repaid, his opponent, Gordon Brown, expects us to pay for his sports package on Sky and to fund an ‘arrangement’ with his brother to pay for a cleaner in his flat whilst we also pay for him to stay in Downing Street and now Chequers. We also paid his plumbing bill twice.
569 Morris Dancer
Surely even the most tribal Labour MP can see that if a flipper gets the Speakership it’s an invitation for anti-politics politics to really explode.
O/T but proof of Browns phone chucking:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/21/flying_nokias/
“Yesterday, it was Tom Watson who had to step up, and reveal that the toll included two Sony Ericssons, one Motorola RAZR, four BlackBerrys and yes, six Nokias.”
569. MD. But if and that is a big if, Bercow is dirty, then he is fecked anyway - he’ll be nobbled - the public aint going to stand for some stitch up putting in place a dirty MP as Speaker. If Labour were stupid enough to push it, they would come out of it looking like a bunch of thieves who’d just reoffended.
558 Tabman, I fear that you have fallen for one of the oldest Tory campaign tricks of all - the old boy *pretended* to be nice, and then distracted you with amiable conversation. He detained you there to keep you away from his radical reforming neighbours who would have been swayed by your blandishments!
Some amazing spin from Harman in tmrws Guardian. How does she keep a straight face.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/21/mps-expenses-hazel-blears-gordon-brown
…she contrasted Labour’s process of slower, fair justice with the summary justice being meted out by the Tories. She said: “It is important that when allegations are made, action is taken, but that there is an orderly and fair process. It’s not for the leader of our party to be able to just say: ‘I am personally going to decide who is going to stand at the next election.’
“That is rightly the responsibility of the party. It is the responsibility of the prime minister to choose his cabinet. But I don’t think this is a question of competition between the parties as to which party leader can chop more heads off.”
558 - Tabbers, old boy! Good to chat with you again.
I really must demand that you give me the name of this gentleman forthwith; we’ll have him blacklisted in 24 hours! Clearly an agent provocateur.
575 Dyed in some wool somewhere
Of course Cameron’s claims are far better than Gordon Brown’s. But comparing to Brown is pointless.
I’m saying, in 2 years time, when Cameron is having to freeze pay for nursesandteachers, and cut tens of thousands of public sector jobs, the wisteria will be brought up again and again and again.
579 -
Fortunately I didn’t hang around long!
Please can someone remind me which bookie offered the Hannan on QT bet - i need to check my winnings!
Yes, good performance by Hague. In fact he started well (big applause for his first answer at the start). He handled the awkward question as well as he could and then was absolutely fine for the rest of the programme.
The subject matter was such that it wasn’t appropriate to go for a big attack on Labour. Much more sensible to just give a solid, authoritative performance.
572
Tim
1) Yes,I campaigned for David Mellor in 1979. He was the PPC for my constituency at the time so your “betting odds” are risible
2)Correct I know naff all about betting, so I don’t. It would be stupid to claim to know something about it or make idiotic bets when you are caught out, wouldn’t it Tim…
3) As to politics, all you know about it is how to smear..endlessly.
581 - AHM, where have you been? Writing your memoirs?
I have to say recent weeks have become almost like old times on here, all sorts coming out of the woodwork. Once one wades through the parvenu types, of course.
576, if they think they’ll lose anyway an explosion of resentment will cause the Tories collateral damage too, and that may satisfy them.
578, they’d try and blame the evil dirty Tory, forgetting, like Bradshaw tonight, they’ve got a majority.
Anyway, off now. Be nice to watch This Week a bit earlier.
564. What nonsense, the majority of people in the country don’t even know what wisteria is. Think you’re getting caught up in the hype of it all.
529, Worcestshire West - Malvern is a bit of an alcove of champagne socialism lefty-dem (remember Castlemorton Common, quite a few hippies and chakra lovers still there) in an otherwise welly brigade county. If it was just the countryside, LDs would have no chance, but a large proportion of the seat is Malvern and its conurbation.
It will be tight and Tory/UKIP splitting may be a factor, but most “love Labour, but lost” (LLBLs) should shift to LD.
582 maybe, I think the repayment of it will rather blunt it however as a tool in those circumstances. I also think the next GE will be rather a line under the expenses issue - people want a government that can govern and to have their say over the excesses of this lot - once that is done, the business of rebuilding starts
584 - Ladbrokes.
579- Good thinking, Augustus. On reflection, I’m sure you are correct!
Newsnight trying to work out how Brown thinks Hoon and Purnell are OK but Blears ain’t. On now.
Everyone ignore tim, he’s just jealous of your lovely house.
.
.
Tabbers [558] Were you in Broxtowe? He sounds like that Nick Palmer chap who used to come on here.
580. Harriet is a leader. Gordo is a moron - what is he doing vis-a-vis chipmunk and Hoon/Purnell? Where is the postie?
592 Thanks antifrank.
Glasgow North East by-election could be July could be October
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2509653.0.Labour_split_over_timing_of_Glasgow_North_East_byelection.php
596 good hunting ground for Lib Dems, Broxtowe. 4 out of 5 Notts CC councillors from there. Until June 5th, of course.
589 woody662
Who cares what wisteria is? It sounds posh. It has a whiff of the moat about it.
It’s not enough to derail a Conservative GE victory. But it is a stick with which he will be beaten so much by people angry at the spending cuts he is making that he may as well have converted to Opus Dei.
O/T: Can anyone guess how long it takes to get from London to Cheshire on Saturday, returning Sunday, by train?
Answer:
Yes, obviously 5 1/2 hours there; 5 1/2 hrs back. I love bank holidays! Ticket obviously £68 for the privilege.
598 - PfP, did you see my BNP play at 498? I don’t think it’s worth it yet, but I know you’re keen on two-party bets in constituencies, so I thought I ought to draw it to your attention.
587 - Nothing as grand as that I’m afraid. I’m still an avid reader, but most days I can hardly keep up with the threads, certainly not enough to comment pithily. I do, however, find it a bit easier to wade through with this new comments format.
is anyone watching the LP PEB?
580′harman is a leader.’ hmmmm. really?. Of whom ? Hampstead, Islington and the Guardians sisterhood.?
The Labour Party PEB - I saw the Gordosmile!
605. Yes. I’m pretty moderate in partisan matters and like to focus on policy, but this was the first time I instinctively recoiled when the term “Labour” was mentioned.
It’s an awful broadcast. A bit wedged in the front about supposedly understanding constituents anger, but from an impersonal voiceover. Then trying to quickly change the subject before moaning on about unsympathetic Tories.
602 - Do what I did last bank holiday, London KIngs X to Leeds, then Leeds to Manc then onwards to chesire, took just over 4hrs.
Augustus, of course, if he’d really been out to delay me he’d have asked to be convinced and not told me his alleigance!
.
.
SSI [568] Spliting the vote doesn’t matter.
Whoever gets elected has to get 50% of the vote, bottom candidates are eliminated until someone gets to 50%
Elephantman: If you are still watching and feel so inclined, could you please let me know your thoughts on Robin Walker’s chances of succeeding his father in Worcester? You seem to have a lot of knowledge of the area.
608: not as bad as the last one then?
Well done to the Hannan punters. I got on at 7/4. Lost the other Hannan bet, to be named in PMQs. So a modest profit.
I suspect cooler and wiser heads are right about the foolishness of betting on the next Speaker market. But if The Telegraph is backing Ann Widdecombe then the 20/1 available with Ladbrokes looks tempting. I have added her to my portfolio.
Now on Any Tory 9/4, Shepherd 14/1, Bercow 8/1 and Widdecombe 20/1.
I see Peter Luff claimed for three loo seats. Prezza must feel badly short-changed here having only got the two!
Well it was a surprise to see Brown on the PEB. Was it a reaction to people noting that he did not appear on the last one?
Timms just lied on Newsnight. He claimed that the difference was the 2nd home/main home classification. Yet we know that Purnell claimed for a London flat as a 2nd home and then claimed it was a main residence for CGT purposes because he didnt pay any tax.
601. Don’t buy it, transparency going forward will see to that. Plus the cost of politics will be reduced fairly on in a Tory first term. 100 seats will be gone.
Hats off to the Telegraph. Still dominating the news agenda FIFTEEN DAYS into the Scandal. Historically impressive.
Can I just have a moan at the BBC. WTF is Question Time not up on iplayer yet? The missus wanted to watch something else then so I thought “that’s fine, I’ll catch up with it on iplayer in a bit”. What’s the problem? Doesn’t someone just have to press a button? Or is there a process?
Any news on the Salford council election tonight?
So did Hague get stitched up as I predicted earlier?
614. I’d rather have Rifkind than Widdecombe as a bet.
I’m not sure if I’m the last to pick this up (being at present in sunny Atlanta Georgia has one or two drawbacks) but there appears to be a notable difference between Labour and Conservative as to how they’re going with this.
Trying to be as neutral as I can (one can’t help noticing the bias of, and venom towards the ‘other’ Tim) it seems from 4400 miles away that:
1. The Tory MPs are told by Cameron to go and they basically do.
2. In Labour there appears to be a marked difference between ordinary MPs, who get dispatched mercifully quickly, and the Darling, Hoon, Blears, Straw, Jacqui Smith etc cabinet crowd, who appear to have been blessed by Gordon Brown (who with his flip, 9k kitchen, sky subs is no angel either) and remain in situ, notwithstanding that Brown says Blears’ behaviour was ‘unacceptable’. This must be a use of the word with which I am not familiar.
620 - To be fair, it takes time to process the video, encoding to flash, uploading it to the server, etc, especially at the quality pumped out by the BBC on iPlayer.
I would guess that pre-recorded shows are processed beforehand and uploaded, and then when the show finished just a matter of “revealing them” i.e putting the link there.
614 & PfP.
Heres Shadsy as Santa re Hannon.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/03/27/has-gord-bet-the-farm-on-a-g20-success/comment-page-2/#comment-983065
624 - Cameron Shadow Cabinet are all still in situ inc Maude Grayling and Lansley
I
598 That’s a profit of £8.75 from Hannan’s appearance on QT. Not exactly a fortune, but better than a poke in the eye etc.
627 - A couple of pints in Putney, at least.
626 Thanks Tim.
624. Tim B. No the Tories still have a few problems - Dorries, Mackay (and Kirkbride?), Maude.
Labour havent actually dealt with most of their back benchers, it’s just easier because some of them are verging into the criminal and some are just criminally stupid (Chaytor, Chapman, Morley, and Moran). They havent even bothered trying to go after some of the plasma Tv and other ridiculous claims yet. Brown is getting himself into a real mess with purnell/Hoon vs Blears, and he has yet to deal with Darling, Straw etc.
Clegg was pathetic in the way he dealt with Rennard and to the extent it will be noticed, will have hurt the Lib Dems.
Hannan’s not actually been on yet, chaps.
Let’s hope nothing happens to him before next Thursday.
626 - Hello ‘other’ Tim.
Are the shadow cabinet’s extravagances anything like as awful as the Brown gang?
Can I rely on an unbiased, unspun and honest response (he says, ducking for cover)?
Rapidly skimmed the thread. Gaz at 362 - Sadie Graham didn’t drop out because of hostility of other councillors, but because of her feud with party colleagues - she led a dissident faction. She alleges they deceived neighbours to gain access to her home and stole a laptop; they allege she released members’ details onto the web.
Salford turnout is a pathetic 17.5% - hard to see anyone feeling very happy with that whatever the result, and it may tell us something about June 4 turnout…
619. Sean. Now we know what The Telegraph was holding, it would have been hard for them not to dominate the News over the last two weeks and beyond.
623. Woody. I quite like Rifkind but I think his chances are reduced by being a “Patrician” and also, like both Martin and Brown, a Scot.
631 - Ladbrokes wouldn’t stoop so low as to hire an East End gangster, would they?
631 - Oy.
You keep your goons away from Dan.
What happened to QT ? They are discussing it on BBC 24, but it has not been on BBC 1 - odd?
What has happened to Rennard?
Anything.
PS I thought Miss Lumley was a little unfair to Clegg today. She thanked everyone except him and I think the LibDems deserve a nodd on this one.
628 Barely that, if you’re referring to the notorious price of Peroni in Young’s Spotted Horse on Putney High Street - yours for only £4.05 a pint.
637. Resigning from Chief Exec.
638 - That would leave you 65p. Two pints of lager and a packet of crisps please?
639. Corporeal. “For health reasons” and thanked by Clegg. No mention of expenses.
630 - The reports from earlier today were that McKay is on his way out in the near future.
631. shadsy. That sounds ominous. Are you badly exposed on Hannan?
Let us all wish Hannan a safe journey across the Channel.
621 - My knowledge doesn’t extend into Worcester, but it is dramatically different in composition vs Worcestershire West - I would guess the young Tory’s chances are good as it’s a narrow Lab majority and LDs are a distant third. Incumbent Foster (foxhunting MP) though hasn’t really troughed so that should help him.
Amazing if Robin Walker wins as he will be only 32 if elected. I suppose though in-breeding is quite rife in the area.
From Steen
“I apologise unreservedly for some of the comments that I made in the interview on the World at One, recorded last night. I was so deeply upset with the situation which resulted in me overreacting. I am sorry that in the heat of the moment I said inappropriate things that weren’t as measured as I would have liked about the Freedom of Information Act, which I entirely support. I may also have given a misleading impression of the agreement I reached with David Cameron in our conversation yesterday. I will have nothing further to say about this matter.”
Hmmm think he’s been got at?
Actually I’m surprised that Comrade Dave hasn’t dispatched Marcus Wood to pop over to Totnes with the icepick.
632 - Maude certainly.
Duncan needs moving because of his post.
Grayling has got off lightly so far.
The shocker for me was Gove ( who I have a lot of respect for) putting up his kids in an expensive London Hotel.
Sally C
Rennard is on his way out ………..slowly
Look at Guido
http://www.order-order.com/
646 - The biggest shock for me was Hazel Blears. I really thought that she was better than that. I am genuinely very disappointed - she was a class act.
631 Indeed, just as Martin hasn’t yet left the Speaker’s Chair and Hills’ haven’t yet paid up - shame on ‘em!
Hannan may contract swine flu or whatever and be unable to appear (although he’d doubtless be invited back), but no way will Martin be Speaker beyond another month.
Further to Edinburgh South, Tories now favourite on PP
Edinburgh South
Wednesday 26th August 2009, 22:00
Constituency Betting Hide
Singles Only. Applies to the party to win the seat for the constituency at the next general election. Others on Request
Conservatives evens
Liberal Democrats 13/8
Labour 7/2
SNP 25/1
We might have something that finally knocks Expenses of the front pages. Looks like there is a british based suspect into the Madeleine McCann disapperance.
@645:
It is a very nice house.
PET PEEVE: Steen deserves to eviscerated for not knowing the difference between envy and jealousy.
645 Sir Anthony sounded, as Private Eye would say, tired and emotional - he had given a measured interview earlier yesterday (”all political lives end in failure”). He’ll now be remembered as a smug, greedy self important berk which was not I imagine his intention.
@653:
Tired and emotional as a newt?
Fronts so far,
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/friday_may_22.html
Doesn’t look like Gibson spoiler helped him!
Apols if this has already been said, but it was it was noticeable to see how heavily Vince Cable on QT came down on the house flippers and CGT avoiders - clearly targetting several members of the present Cabinet.
645 I suspect someone is on the way right now after his ludicrous outburst.
652 Quite a good price he paid for a house like that in South Hams, though comparison with a 365 roomed Norfolk mansion on a huge estate is perhaps over-egging it.
Thanks for the info on Rennard. Not exactly severe!
Oracle, would you be so kind as to fill me in on Mackay? Is he going?
657 - Let’s hope they get to Totnes before they get sent on by shadsy to Brussels.
658 - I think the comparison he made was to Balmoral, not Sandringham.
653. Ted. Sadly for Steen, he is now immortalised on the front of the Independent. Looking back over his voting record, I’d say he probably wasnt a bad MP. He did vote for extending FoI on legislation back in 2000.
And Gibson is getting a kicking from the DT.
659
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/benedict_brogan/blog/2009/05/21/right_dave_whos_next
Huhne hits the nail: “Commons little more than an electoral college for the Government”
644. Foster in Worcester has a majority of 6.8% whilst the West Worcestershire Conservative notional majority is 7.2% following boundary changes. The line about Baldwin is identical to the one being peddled by the Lib Dems for more than a year and may even go back to the 2007 MHDC elections when the Lib Dems lost 14 seats to finish on 5. Don’t take too much notice of Elephantman’s local knowledge. I keep getting letters from the Lib Dem candidate and cannot even remember his name. Tom Wells was a very much stronger candidate in 2005.
659 - Well the rumblings from several sources, Waugh for one, was that he had lunch from Coulson (Cameron inside press man), and it sounded as if Coulson was getting very animated and telling him where to go in no uncertain terms.
I would take that as follows, he has been told you are on your bike and this is what to say to the press and this is when you are going. Given the Gibson story, as with when Hogg went, I wonder if they are going to slip him out the back door under the cover of new scandal.
663 Thank you MTF but not conclusive enough I think.
He has got to go. I don’t think he has the support to carry on.
665 - Thank you for that. If memory serves, the Lib Dem PPC in West Worcs is married to the MP for Solihull?
How the Daily Show sees Scamalot.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=228030&title=scamalot
BBC report from tonights QT,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8062640.stm
Not a mention of Bradshaw!
666. Cheers.
Maybe Coulson told Mackay - it’s you or your wife!
656 Clegg has been playing the same line - it’s the “distinctive” Lib Dem policy and fortunately doesn’t address the expenditure on consumables which many Lib Dems have made. Means that Clegg only has to come down “like a ton of bricks” on any Lib Dem flippers while of course condemning Labour and Conservatives found to have been spending on plasma TV equipped duck houses in well drained moats while ignoring the mote in his own eye.
Rennard has been allowed to retire gracefully with no condemnation, allowing time for a successor, rather than just being shown the door. Lib Dem posters seem to think thats OK.
667 - I fear you may be correct, but if Mackay goes, then surely Ms Kirkbride has to go as well?
670 Article comes out well for Hague (I think?)
673 On the face of it I would agree. Is she doing a Tessa and saying she knew nothing?
674 - Yes, I didn’t see the show, but the sound bite is positive. Find very interesting the report is all Hague and Cable said this and that, and a bit of Bell. People not watching might wonder were the government / Labour party not invited!
670: Bradshaw is included, Oracle - read the whole thing!
665 - I think you are comparing apples with worcester sauce I’m afraid. We shall see!
Leading 3 Speaker candidates favoured by the This Week panel are Field, Bercow and Widdecombe.
What happened to “Any Questions”, replaced by “This Week”? Let me guess - pulled by the BBC because it was too anti-Labour.
677 - Apologises, line at the end, could of sworn it wasn’t there 10 minutes ago. Revisionista?
Will have to check if the BBC have revised the page.
Still interesting to note dominated by Hague and Cable.
661 A H - while Balmoral is smaller than Sandringham I didn’t see much resemblance myself.
677 - Nick, do you think revelations about Bercow’s expenses are likely to damage his chances of being elected Speaker in the same way that they seem to have sunk Sir Alan Haselhurst?
I remarked last night how bloody odd it is that everyone, including the party leaders, are still having to rely on daily dollops of news from the Telegraph, which at the current rate could continue for several more weeks.
When in God’s name is an official enquiry to be set up under a senior judge to investigate the conduct of ALL 650 MPs with unfettered access to all the original records and how long will such an enquiry take to report - my conservative guess would be 18-24 months, i.e. well beyond the time limit for holding the next GE.
Hence my suggestion that as an interim measure each MP be required to complete, as a matter of urgency a “Truth Questionnaire” setting out how much they had claimed over the past 4 years (minimum) and to what extent such claims were wholly, exclusively and necessarily in pursuance of their duties as Members of Parliament. The same procedure should apply to Peers also.
Am I right in thinking that much of the documentary evidence has actually been handed back to the MPs? If this is indeed the case, it simply beggars belief in terms of downright stupidity.
Labour waltzes home in Salford by-election - Hazel entitled to feel a bit chuffed:
Labour 606
Lib Dem 293
BNP 276
Con 189
Green 125
UKIP 123
Last time
2008 result Lab 888 LibDem 337 Con 286 BNP 233
“Hazel entitled to feel a bit chuffed”
Why? She shouldn’t be feeling chuffed about anything, she should be out of a job, along with a load of other troughing MP’s from all sides!
661 - Nor do I. Probably something that would have been better left unsaid, along with a few other choice remarks made in a moment of bad temper, as I’m sure Mr Steen would now agree.
685 Good news for the Tories is your troughers [and Brown] survive.
680 - It was on earlier paranoid Pravda watcher.
Anyone know if Mackays phone has been hacked?
683 - missed the revelations, AHM - what were they?
689 - Don’t know, better ask Stephen Pound, as he seems to be a paranoid “they have hacked my email” kinda man! Still no sign of a police complaint, funny that!
Evening all
I’m pleased to hear the Hannan QT bet is coming good. A nice one.
The Speaker market is a bookie’s bonanza. 3 favourites a week, each layable at 2-1, and it goes on for several weeks.
@685:
Did we just have an ersatz Mark Senior Moment from NPMP?
I don’t know whether to feel humbled, ashamed, aroused or disgusted.
Just seen the Labour PEB, apart from the ridiculously annoying voice it was a much better broadcast than last week’s. Good clear messaging, that is if you have a temporary memory lapse and forget that Labour are responsible for getting us into this mess.
Actually I can’t think who wouldn’t be throwing their very own mobile phone at the screen with Brown to camera finale, at the incredible double-speak
685
Nick
Didnt you post earlier that noone could read anything to a turnout of 17% or intimate the same.
689
‘Anyone know if Mackays phone has been hacked?’
You are the Govt lackey.
You tell us.
686: well, oracle, you might have thought that more voters in Hazel’s constituency would be a teeny bit hesitant to vote Labour after all the coverage - no?
To be fair, turnout was so awful that it’s hard to conclude very much, though it’s always awful in that ward (lots of students).
690 - Nick, from the Telegraph:
John Bercow, a Tory candidate for the Speaker’s chair, faces questions over his expenses claims after he “flipped” his second home from his constituency to a £540,000 flat in London and claimed the maximum possible allowances.
Not the worse case we’ve been witness to, but shouldn’t the new Speaker be beyond suspicion considering the scale of the task they will face to reform the way the House of Commons operates?
Douglas Hogg’s pet cate is cute:
http://icanhascheezburger.com/2009/05/21/funny-pictures-wif-fishies/
Alastair I hope your knees are better.
Spotted today:
Lib dem posters in Dawlish, Tory poster in Starcross, A large Plaid Window poster covering almost the whole window -they might get rickets in that house in Cardiff. UKIP Billboard poster in Cardiff also.
Good night all
601. “Who cares what wisteria is? It sounds posh. It has a whiff of the moat about it.”
Not if you take an interest in gardens, as a great number of British people do. I think the “wisteria” jibe will rebound, actually. It makes the people who utter it seem dreary and philistine.
694.
No one in the real world watches PPBs.
We look at them to analyse the psyche of the other side.
696 - Coulson is the one with the history.
The Tories getting beaten into fourth by the BNP is an embarrassment.
I don’t feckin care where the election is.
646 - then Dave needs to wield his axe on them, and the sooner the better.
697 - As I said she shouldn’t be feeling chuffed about anything, including an incredibly low turn out meaningless by-election, as she should be out of a job!
Not sure which bit of my first reply you didn’t understand Nick! Getting a bit slow in your old age? Trouble reading and writing like Dawn “The Jacuzzi” Butler? God imagine that, a complete moron like that has been promoted above you, must really cut you up!
What was it again, a mysteriously useless parliamentarian who would eat his own feet if the whips asked him to. Has Dawn ever asked you to do that?
@703:
…let’s make lots of money…
685 Nick, delighted that the Salford by-election result will make it difficult for Brown to justify sacking Blears when he has effectively led a cover up for Hoon and Pretty Boy. Then again he should be repaying some cash himself, starting with his cleaning expenses.
695/697: snap, MTF!
I’m watching newsnight with a half-hour delay. Is Blanchflower a government minister? For someone who is supposed to be an ‘independent’ advisor, not only does he come to the same ‘conclusions’ as Gordon, he even uses the same terms (do nothing etc).
In Salford, someone gets elected by around 8% of those entitled to vote.
Rejoice.
700 - Very much so, thank you Marcia! How goes the battle up your way?
Still haven’t given up on Perth and North Perthshire you know! In case you were minded to relax…
704 Seth,
The BNP are making major in roads into Labour areas. Huge. These people were never going to vote for us. Not on your nelly. The rise of the BNP says more about their voters and their governance in the past 12 years. It is not a relflection on us.
704 Seth, absolute nonsense. If the Labour voters of Salford etc who were never going to vote Tory vote BNP in relevant seats a fortnight today, we can look forward to Labour losin everywhere.
Good night all. Lets see how many MPs announce their retirement tomorrow.
708. “Then again he should be repaying some cash himself, starting with his cleaning expenses.”
Well, I think he should start with the TV Licence and the Sky subscription actually. But starting anywhere would be good.
Intersting to see that the number of posts to PB, according to my very rough calculations, has inreased by approximately 40% over just the last few weeks.
707 - Have you been drinking?
If so, would you care to tell us how the Bethnal Green Open Primary was stitched up?
I hope Harriet’s comments about ‘Tory summary justice’ are widely aired.
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-May-22-2009/Media-Gallery/200905315286560?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15286560_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_May_22%2C_2009
17% reflects disilluisionment. I was out leafletting tonight, hardly anyone was home by the time I leafletted and only one person gave me the cheery “You’ve got my vote”. Lots of people were mowing their lawns, but the lakes were largely unattended.
I did see 2 UKIP billboards, it did occur that a bit of redaction might give a different message to what they intended.
712 - on holiday in the West Country but will return to the fray just before the European elections. Then a local by-election immediately after the Euro’s due to the death of a dear friend - rather fed up of by-elections! Now must get to bed.
715 Michael K at least if we are paying for his SKY subscription, then like the soon to be ex speaker, he might hear balanced independent news reporting. Neil Ferguson is a rising star.
Incidentally I see they have David Davies the ex English FA Chief executive alias the leading apologist for Gordon Brown.
@717:
You think I’m easy? Sir, I’m a good girl I am.
722 - Don’t forget, David Davies, ex BBC!
720 I was out leafletting aswell and I didn’t get any hostility. They could see what I was carrying and just smiled. But they are my neighbours!
I think that cavassing has been less bad in the past few days.
713/714
Yes, and I also realise that UKIP split the Tory vote, but nonetheless it pains me to see it there in black and white - fourth behind the BNP.:(
The fact is, if the Tories were getting their message across better in these areas and looking a real alternative, some of these disenfranchised Labour voters would find it easier to stomach voting blue than turning to the BNP. There should be no no-go areas for the Tories. Salford. Sunderland. Bolsover. Anywhere!
I speak as a Sevenoaks resident who saw the place gain a BNP councillor a couple of months back (albeit, again, in a previously overwhelmingly Labour ward).
215. why would i care about a hotel room? If all MPs are doing is taking the odd freebie like a hotel room, I wouldnt really care, its like being a bit extravegent on your milage claims. It shouldnt happen, but in reality it does.
What concerns me are those who are milking the system on an industrial scale. Thats what people like you cant understand. You see the Tories and you think sleeze, brown paper envelopes stuffed with a couple of grand, while right under your noses you are witnessing grand larceny and corruption of hundreds of thousands of pounds.
723 - You’ll enjoy this
http://www.johannakaschke.com/
Question, are the Lib Dem’s short on the readies? I mean really short?
I didn’t get any local election material last year, and nothing so far this year for either locals or Euros. So far had Tories, umpteen times, Labour a couple of times (got a new one today, far more professional than the one I got last week that was pathetic) for both local / Euros and BNP + UKIP for Euros.
716. Peter.
You and I can recall, not so very long ago, when waiting for another PB comment to appear at this time of night was like waiting for a bus to arrive on a Sunday, while standing at a bus stop on a quiet country lane. More a hope than an expectation.
727 - you’re missing the point on the hotel room.
Dorries claims she didn’t stay in it, but she tried to claim the cash from the fees office.
Thats an attempted fraud isn’t it?
Seth. I sympathise but that is tosh.
It doesn’t matter how well you deliver your message - some people are never going to vote for you.
If you think that you can change that, join up and have a go. I am happy to be proved wrong.
Textbooks axed as exam fees rise by £100m
Schools are being forced to scrimp on textbooks and teachers while the amount of money spent on examination fees has soared by £100 million in just six years, it is claimed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/5361853/Textbooks-axed-as-exam-fees-rise-by-100m.html
Edukation, Edukation, Edukation!
720, its hard to meet a voter now who doesnt quiz us elected officials on our expenses (in my ten weeks as a Councillor, and one week as an executive councillor, i have so far, not claimed a penny in expenses), our supporters are being even tougher on us then our detractors.
We arent losing their support, they just want to know we have been behaving ourselves.
697 Nick P
.
.
.
I make it quite a swing away from Labour (percentages). BNP up, I see.
2009 2008
Lab 37.6 50.9
LD 18.2 19.3
BNP 17.1 13.4
Con 11.7 16.4
Green 7.8 N/A
UKIP 7.6 N/A
Six DUPs to stop double-dipping jobs…
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0521/sinnfein.html
650 - fabulous - nearly 2-1 on the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South is the most generous free money you can get. I’m on.
731. Not if it was a mistake. No mens rea.
731. On the face of it. I dont know the details. It is certainly at the bottom of my concerns. If we had a squeaky clean parliament, then it would warrant a look, but in the present climate, it doesnt even reach the standard of mood music.
I am ‘joined up’, though sadly ensconsed in one of the safest Tory seats in the country (yeah, that’s what they all say etc!).
I am helping a certain Tory candidate in a West London constituency though. It’s pretty hard trying to convince people on council estates to vote for the party of duck houses and moats.
That is why I hope - and believe - Cameron is bluffing with all this election talk. He’s doing it to distnace himself as musch as possible from the shabby status quo. In reality an election now would kill off the prospects for Tory candidates in previously inner-city Labour-leaning areas whose main message has been ‘The Tory party has changed’.
@728:
I know who Johanna Kaschke is. Johanna Kaschke is known to me.
738. Yes, guilty mind. It seems like the fees office was chaotic, as was her administrative arrangements in her personal office.
When i sort my tax out it is done in arrears. So, at the end of january of 2009, my taxes for the year april 2007 to march 2008 are submitted.
Going through receipts and expenses, it can sometimes be quite tough to remember exactly what was what. It is entirely possible to make a mistake.
The Salford turnout reminds me of a constituent’s story. We was writing a thesis on electoral apathy, so he rang the ERO of the constituency with lowest turnout (somewhere in Liverpool) and asked him why so few local people bothered to vote. The ERO replied, “We thought of looking into it, but decided we couldn’t be bothered…”
740 - Will those people have forgotten in a years time? I’m sure Labour and the left leaning press will remind everybody. It is now the rules you have to say “Moats and Manure” whenever talking about expense claims.
740. You better gets you skates on then. He isn’t bluffing!
He doesn’t mind taking a few risks in a good cause IMHO.
742 - How does a hotel bill for a room you haven’t stayed in get into your paperwork in the first place?
731 That sounds like a scandalous waste of money, if I was free that evening I am sure I would have shared it with her.
It is obviously so serious I can’t even find her listed on the Telegraph’s alphabetical list. Maybe you could post a link to the article on her?
Ta.
743 lol!
737. Dan. The reason the odds in Edinburgh South have shifted (and the money has been piling in) is that Lord Rennard’s demise as an electoral force makes it a likely Tory gain. The Tories I spoke to in Edinburgh are very happy this evening
746. when you get inti the habit of keeping reciepts, you keep all of them…. It becomes like an obsessive compulsive disorder….
719 - the Mail picture of the Queen and the headline is great.
“One’s MPs are corrupt,
One’s Parliament crumbling,
One’s garden is being invaded by the BNP,
One’s economy slides ever-nearer to bankruptcy.
No wonder one is NOT AMUSED!”
750 - But you don’t even see the receipts for rooms you haven’t stayed in.
745 - Doesn’t really matter if he is or isn’t, and I don’t think he is either. If Gordo decides, it will be never, well May 2010 unless they find something to change the rules! If Gordo gets the heave ho, the talk seemed to be that there would be an “early” election, i.e still 2010, thus allowing any accusations on holding on to power to be batted away, as first need a new Labour leader / PM, then a while to get things in place, then the GE campaign.
752 Maybe the fees office filed it in the wrong file.
754 - Didn’t the Telegraph also claim there was a mini-bar bill from the same hotel, and Dorries claims there aren’t even mini-bars in the rooms.
Thinking about Expenses and election timing. The Daily Telegraph will continue for a while, the we get the redacted expenses. There will be a lull and the Gordon Brown’s Independent Auditors will start reviewing and laying down judgements. That will give a second wind to the scandal. If they take a hard line on what is necessary to do the job then even Gordon’s Sky subscription could be queried.
Cameron acted quickly on his Shadow Cabinet, getting them to pay back doubtful claims so they would hopefully escape an judgements lightly. Brown hasn’t done anything except where illegality or really outrageous claims were made.
the Independent Review will probably start reporting back in Autumn and go on for some months. With unemployment rising, Darling probably having to change the forecasts again in PBR that will not be an ideal lead in to a GE.
Will Gordon be tempted by an early Autumn/late Summer election ?
742 I have to say I am always rather nonplussed by arguments of complexity when submitting tax returns.
(a) there’s nothing stopping you submitting it the previous May
(b) I would have thought that most self employed people who claimed travel, accommodation etc expenses regularly would put them on a spreadsheet, updated weekly.
If I was a tax inspector and you told me you waited until January every year I might assume you were deliberately trying to create chaos in the hope of obfuscating the true nature of your expenses.
After QT tonight, and the success of Ms Lumley, I wonder if we will get a celebrity endorsed “election now” campaign
756 - Do you think it really will be “Independent”, or do you think it will be “independent like the Big Lottery Fund or the BBC Broad of Trustees”?
As they say, Gordo has form on his independent panels. The Butcher, the Baker and the Candlestick maker, who were supposed to report on Abrahams (and I never remember them completing their work) were shown to be far from “Independent”.
Really. I do work for London a constituency and have recently been in contact with the campaign teams of Hammersmith and Westminster North. Which one are you working for? I doubt it is anywhere else, we either have the MPs or have no chance.
PhilC
a. Yes but to do so is not normal
b. Maybe, but to do so is not normal.
You are clearly not a tax inspector and I thank god for it.
730 stjohn - Indeed so, not only that, but when the bus finally arrived, you could pretty much guarantee that it had a latter day Tory poster’s name on it, promoting his own blog (no hard feelings Benedict if you’re there, lurking).
Latest from planet Dorries.
Enter the Barclay brothers, the billionaire owners of The Daily Telegraph.
Rumour is that they are fiercely Euro sceptic and do not feel that either of the main parties are Euro sceptic enough. They have set upon a deliberate course to destabilise Parliament, with the hope that the winners will be UKIP and BNP.
A quick online check of the Barclay brothers and their antics on the Island of Sark is enough to give this part of the rumour credence.
Another rumour is that the disc was never acquired and sold by an amateur, but it was in fact a long term undercover operation run by the Telegraph for some considerable time, carefully planned and executed; and that the stories of the naive disc nabber ringing the news desk in an attempt to sell the stolen information are entirely the work of gossip and fiction.
These rumours do have some credibility given that this has all erupted during the European Election Campaign and turn out is expected to be high with protest votes, courtesy of the Daily Telegraph, or should I say the Barclay brothers.
I thought the discs had been offered to other papers first?
Can anyone see a better place for betting on a 2009 election (or a 2nd half 2009 election) than Ladbrokes’ 10/3? This is not an innocent question.
761 I thought it would be worth doing early so you know how much of your tax provision you can spend (or, more likely, how much you have to save up by January!)
My experience as a payroll manager is that, if you balance everything on a monthly basis, the TYE is a doddle.
NickMP - I fail to see how polling barely a third of the vote in Labour’s safest ward in Salford constitutes “waltzing home”. Come on, must do better…
765 Phil C. It’s like packing for a holiday though - it’s no fun unless it’s done at absolutely the last minute.
756 Will Gordon be tempted by an early Autumn/late Summer election?
Ted - Late Autumn I think is now very possible, around a 30% chance imho, on which basis the odds from Lads/Hills for an Oct/Nov poll look attractive
768 - Any election will be before the clocks go back, so November is out. Mid October plausible but if they did it in a way that Labour got a conference but no-one else did there would be a row overshadowing the start fo the campaign.
769 - Sounds a perfect Gordo tactic! Remember his visit to Iraq with the press in tow during Tory Party Conference.
770 - Yeah but would he really want that sort of bad publicity?
764 This is not an innocent question.
antifrank - hmm… sounds intriguing!
The best H2 2009 odds have been PP’s recent 4/1 (I haven’t checked today). Otherwise check Hills’ or Ladbrokes’ odds for individual months, although these too have shortened of late.
John Bercow in his article in the Independent: “The cause, at least in part, is that for far too long the House of Commons has been run as little more than a private club by and for gentleman amateurs”
At least he’s not hiding where he’s appealing to for support!
771 - Who knows, he is as mad as a hatter, what he sees a good PR isn’t how the public see it, e.g TWIRLY TWIRLY Youtube, Recent PPB, etc.
Also, a lot of the public wouldn’t really get what all the fuss was about, sure the attitude would be,
“the Tories wanted an early election, they got one, shut up and get on with it, whats the problem?”
Look of the PR mess he is making of his cabinet’s troughing. Blears BAD, Purnell and Hoon do the same thing, GOOD!
Independent has news of the Summer Re-Launch (will it be 30th or 31st one? losing count). Gordon will give us The National Plan (straight after the Bundle out Blears reshuffle, hoping to trump any Labour moves to unseat him)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-pins-hopes-on-national-plan-to-revive-labour-fortunes-1689216.html
Does lend credence to an Autumn election - if the Postman’s Knock doesn’t intervene.
773: ‘At least he’s not hiding where he’s appealing to for support!’
I’m starting to think Bercow is a shoe in for the Speakership! The Labour Party won’t be able to resist having a plaything Tory in the post. A great coup for Gordon…
773 - Jesus, what a despicable, slimy, self-serving, unctuous little toad he really is.
775 - OMG, not another relaunch! He has tried two in the past 3/4 weeks! Nazi Brown had to be the best!
All those who want a different voting system for the GE will be disappointed,
“But ministers admit that big changes such as an elected House of Lords and electoral reform could not be completed before the general election. “You can’t overhaul the constitution by next week,” one said.”
Sorry RedCrosby, not STV etc this time around.
“Mr Brown is convinced Labour can still hold on to power if the general election could be turned into a choice between the rival policies of the two main parties. “Gordon Brown has a plan, David Cameron does not,” one of Mr Brown’s aides said. “When the voters realise that, we think they will look at things differently.”"
Hmmm, people going to buy this crap? The words Gordo and plan, sounds expensive, will be, won’t achieve anything, won’t start until 2020 and be horribly over budget.
779. I don’t think Rod ever really believed PPR would happen before the election. Thats why he’s pinning all his hopes on a hung parliament.
780. Its typical Brown nonsense. He loves to talk in these grandiose terms about plans and conventions. In the end most of it goes straight over the publics head. So to will all this garbage.
“Apols if this has already been said, but it was it was noticeable to see how heavily Vince Cable on QT came down on the house flippers and CGT avoiders - clearly targetting several members of the present Cabinet.”
I’m with Cable on this, moats and bookcases is froth, these are the real con merchants and making money the way they are doing is unconscionable, barely a step down from the non-existent mortgages. Anyone caught doing it should not be in parliament. Period.
Bercow to be the next Speaker? Here’s what Morus wrote on 9 Nov 2008:
“John Bercow (Con, Buckingham) – Apparently considered the Conservative most likely to cross the floor after the defection of Quentin Davies, Bercow has gone from being one of the most energetic right-wingers to a leftist-Conservative rebel prepared to ignore IDS’ three-line whip by supporting gay rights. Rumoured to be very keen on the job.”
You can say that again Morus, I say you can say that again!
780 That’s what makes me think about an Autumn election, The Plan has a limited shelf life as a winning proposition. Mandelson & Balls know that even if Brown thinks otherwise. He after all still boasts of 3 million jobs created despite National Statistics showing majority went to EU & other migrants and unemployment reaching upwards towards that figure, he talks of the “action we are taking” when much hasn’t been implemented.
Mandelson & Balls though know that nothing will happen more than publication and announcement but hope there will be enough apparent meat to fight an election on other grounds than past record and government failure. The Plan will have though still to be fresh and not yet turned into another failure.
782 Brown just looks stupid condoning Hoon & Purnell whilst crucifying Blears. Probably all three should be sacked together with Darling, Straw and Smith - that’s a minimum of six. How many will leave the Cabinet? The two women only, hot on the heels of Ruth Kelly.
784 Good thinking Ted, so what’s your best bet - surely with hols, etc it can’t be before Sept?
784. My guess is, Labour are preparing for an autumn election. I think theres an understanding that they can’t brazen it out until next year after all this expense’s stuff and Brown will probably also do it for his own survival as I believes the party conferences may well end up being shelved. Brown knows conferece is when he’ll be most vulnerable to a final coup attempt. So, I think we could be lookng at an election being called sometime early September and maybe a poll on October 1st?
786 - I’ve now covered Sept, Oct & Nov quite heavily, on the basis that if not then it’s May 2010 for sure.
787 GIN - I think you’re almost spot on there, although I fancy 22 October to enable the party conferences to be held. I wonder what odds Shadsy would give me on this specific date? 60/1 sounds about the ticket and just imagine the bragging rights. Eat your heart out Smithson would be the cry!
789 - Why would Gordo want to let Cameron have free PR and be all over the media? The past 2 party conferences have given Cameron big boosts.
Looks like it’s just thee and me GIN, so I’ll say goodnight.
790 So, Oracle, when are you forecasting the GE? Don’t forget also that if GB is to sweep away the party conferences, he’s going to have to let the cat out of the bag at least two weeks beforehand, thus losing the element of surprise.
797 - I honestly don’t know now, I was in the hanging on until the very end camp, but if this news about the big relaunch is true, looks very much like the Autumn doesn’t it. “Man with the Grand Plan”, and no need to worry about if the Budget was a fraud as it won’t have unraveled fully by then and stick all the new stuff either on the flexible friend as usual or the backburner for post election.
As for exact date, I don’t know, not thought about it enough, just initial thought was if you were Gordo would you let Cameron, Hague and Squeaky have a weeks worth of dominating the media if you could avoid it, especially just before a GE? Evidence suggests letting especially Cameron to have blanket media coverage is a very bad thing if you are a Labourite.
If Brown really did have a plan, why would he wait until just AFTER an election to announce it?
As everyone (including Labour supporters) knows it is, of course, laughable nonsense.
799 - It might be nonsense, but it will be spun and spun and spun for far more than its worth.
Think back to last year and Gordo “triumph” at party conference, what did he announce schemes like free computers. Where are they? Nowhere? Wasn’t it also, matching education spending to private schools? I’m sure there were more, but you get the gist.
But jeez did they spin like crazy, including my old friends the BBC ramping up Gordo the Great and his lovely wife!
784. “Sorry RedCrosby, not STV etc this time around.”
Even if the government had the will to do it (which sadly they don’t) it’s literally almost impossible at this stage anyway. The House of Lords would block it and there wouldn’t be enough time to implement the Parliament Act.
two pigeons bite the dust…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/expenses-accusations-hit-pairs-speaker-bid-1689339.html
I’ll repeat my tip.
Richard Shepherd 16/1 at Coral or ExtraBet
i) no family
ii) among the lowest expenses of any MP for years
iii) Tory maverick
iv) a love and knowledge of Parliament second only to Enoch Powell
This “plan” does not mean an Autumn election.
If he announces the “plan” in early June, it will be long forgotten by October - that’s 4 months later.
Remember it’s still less than 2 months since the supposedly historic G20 meeting. That’s already long forgotten.
If people have all forgotten the G20 after less than 2 months, who is going to remember the announcement of a “plan” after 4 months.
No, this is all about one thing - saving Brown. And it will work - he only has to distract attention for one week after the Euros, then the following week it’ll be the election of the new Speaker and then bingo we’re almost at the Summer recess.
I’ve just googled the three parties’ autumn conference dates and they run from 19 Sept until 8 Oct (LibDems first, Tories last). These dates look too late to then hold a GE campaign for a poll on 22 Oct, the last date before the clocks go back. So, if it’s going to be Autumn, it looks like either the first or second Thursday in September.
802 Rod - the market is saying Bercow. Labour love him. How can he fail?
Couldn’t Broon announce an election during the Liebour conference? It would have two advantages from his POV. It would give him something to say, and it would bugger up the Tory conference.
@805:
Will Bercow really want to be speaker for under a year?
Brown will hit the ground running. Sounds right, a prat fall while trying to be dynamic.
A plan with a large price ticket attached to it, of course. A national plan for more debt less business and more bureaucracy with a parliamentary reform to entrench Labour. That will sell well.
The danger he had not seen is the call for an election. It is going to function like the ‘apology’ meme. The more he resists the more he looks as if he is defying the electorate who think MPs are crap anyway and government MPs particularly. So when the pressure is too great and he calls one in September or October claiming he intended it all the time in response the public outcry he will look weak and dissembling at the same time.
POGWAS.
Busy day! I have to read almost 2000 comments!
805. It’s a secret ballot. He’s too young. He’s too inexperienced. The public wouldn’t buy him. He’s too small [the chair would literally be too big for him.] He’d be the first Jew…
804. Yes, unlucky for Brown as clocks go back almost a week earlier than normal (the next Sunday is 1 Nov - ie one day too late).
It just prevents him holding the Labour Party Conference before announcing a GE. If GE is on Thursday 22 Oct, he has to announce it by Tuesday 29 Sept.
Labour Party Conference is Sunday 27 Sept to Thursday 1 Oct. But as he would have to go to the Palace and announce it in Downing Street in practice he wouldn’t be able to do it that week.
So he’d have to announce it the week before.
806 John - I don’t think he could keep it under wraps for that long, a GE is such a huge logistical exercise, plus a cynical attempted trick against the Tories would probably backfire.
807 Martin - other things being equal, he remains in position until he chooses to go, it’s not a one parliament appointment as such.
@813:
Not true.
But if he doesn’t go in the autumn then the Pre-Budget report is going to be very tricky - there will need to be a realistic plan to tackle the deficit. Strategically Cameron has pretty much put Labour completely on the back foot. The idea the Tories won’t have a coherent election manifesto or a “plan” is a big assumption to make and really illustrates how Brown’s prejudices effect his judgement. As for relaunch no xxx flushing out Tory policies then I think Cameron and his team have time and time again shown their ability not to blink or panic. Finally Brown isn’t exactly known for his decisiveness and ability to make a quick and difficult decision. Brown also thinks he is right and we just don’t know it yet.
This all rather confuses me as to the likelihood of an Autumn election but I think it’s worth putting some money on September/October.
At the age of 46, Bercow could easily want to go on for twenty years or even longer. Who’s to say he won’t be the second Speaker to be removed against his will?
813. In theory there is a re-election at the start of every parliament. Unless there is a challenger, the Speaker is re-elected nem. con.…
Manners-Sutton was the last to be defeated in 1835…
If Bercow is foisted on parliament against the clear will of the Conservative Party, what do you think the incoming Conservative majority’s first act will be?
To re-elect a speaker they neither like nor trust that was foisted on them against their will by a Labour Party on maneuvers and seeking revenge?
That seems unlikely.
A Bercow speakership will last 10 months *if he’s lucky*.
Ladbrokes are offering 16/1 against September and 12/1 against October, combine them and it’s worth 6.37/1.
I’m not sure Shadsy has checked the Party Conference dates and also the early clock change date. 22 October looks difficult, although not impossible. Come on Shadsy give me those 60/1 odds against a tenner.
818. I’d have thought it would be a bit hard in PR terms for the Tories to oust a Tory speaker after ten months on ideological grounds.
818 against the clear will of the Conservative Party
- Difficult to establish in a secret ballot.
@820:
Oh, it wouldn’t be on ideological grounds. It would be completely personal. Bercow is hated by most of the Conservative Parliamentary Party. A Parliamentary Party that will have a majority by next summer.
822. That’s even worse, isn’t it? The first acts of an incoming regime are always remembered, and an act of naked revenge wouldn’t be the best way to start. My guess is the Tories would learn to live with Bercow in the short-to-medium term - so long as he proves to be a reasonably even-handed Speaker.
@821:
It’s not difficult to establish by having MPs talk to each other. I understand it’s standard practice in the Conservative Party.
In practice, if Bercow wins then he will remain Speaker even if the Conservatives win the next GE.
If Bercow is Speaker, he will stand at the GE as Speaker and not be opposed by Labour or Lib Dems. That would then make it impossible (from a practical point of view) for him to then revert to being a Conservative MP.
Whilst it would be technically possible, Cameron would not want to start with a huge row.
@823:
In the unlikely event that Bercow turns out to be competent and not a dick, perhaps. But based on what we know about Bercow, that seems implausible.
Clearly nobody has told Pascoe Watson that the Sun has gone Tory,
“By GEORGE PASCOE WATSON
Political Editor
GORDON Brown has shown his greatest strength to be courage - and nothing would be braver than calling an early General Election.
The PM would prove to the nation he is serious about cleaning up politics.
And he would showcase his steely determination to do what is RIGHT for the country at this time of crisis.
Mr Brown has demonstrated his leadership qualities when the nation has hit disasters. ”
Courage, leadership, bravery, what cloud cuckoo land is Pascoe Watson living in!
If Bercow has enemies in most of the Tory party, then unless he somehow makes it into the final round, he won’t become Speaker.
The exhaustive ballot means that the Tories will surely succeed in preventing him from getting that far…
@825:
If Bercow is elected speaker, I think the Conservative party should seriously consider standing a candidate against him at the general election.
827. The slightly scary thing about that article is that the Sun have obviously convinced themselves that Brown is actually persuadable. It will take more than unconvincing buttering up to persuade Brown to commit political suicide.
Sir George Young joins the pigeon-coop
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186268/Three-MPs-aspirations-Speaker-claimed-100-000-second-home-expenses.html
828. How so? The Tories have fewer than a third of MPs. And I presume even one or two of them will be voting for Bercow - Bercow himself, for starters!
Daily Rant playing spot the difference, Gordo style,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184626/Spot-difference-Why-wont-Brown-slap-Hoon-Purnell-like-Blears.html
Gordo to Darling,
“Well, that’s another fine mess you’ve gotten me into.”
@830:
It would take more than bravery to call an early general election, it would take the ability to travel back in time.
BTW Does Bercow wear a syrup?
835. Yes, 100% hairy hat.
834. “It would take more than bravery to call an early general election, it would take the ability to travel back in time.”
I’m sure Brown would relish that ability. It would be a golden opportunity to view himself ‘getting on with the job’ on so many occasions.
@836:
Claimed for on expenses, I hope.
Strange BNP still only coming out at 4%.
They beat the Tories and the much vaunted UKIP at 17% last night in Salford.
Perhaps it’s the Blears effect.
Come and play spot the odd one out, here, http://www.plenty2say.com, as a bit of Friday Fun.
839Hantsboy says:
22/5/2009 at 9:16 am
Strange BNP still only coming out at 4%. They beat the Tories and the much vaunted UKIP at 17% last night in Salford.
Not really, it is refklective of what they poll n June, when their vote will go down to below this level
BNP vote not remotely enough to get Griffin elected in NW
All parties in NW are now saying BNP are a dead cert to get a NW Seat. Postal votes went out today and there are even BNP posters up in the once red cities of Liverpool and Manchester.