What’s Sarah Palin up to?
July 5th, 2009Is her resignation a masterstroke or a blunder?
It could be the start of the 2012 presidential election campaign or it could be the end of that of 2008. Former Republican Vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s decision to resign as Governor of Alaska later this month has raised a lot of questions but answered few.
In her announcement, in which she rambled and at times rivalled John Prescott’s ability to string non-sequiturs together, she gave few reasons other than the pressures of sustained ethics investigations and that having decided not to re-contest the governorship, there was a need to avoid a ‘lame duck’ administration.
If she was thinking about contesting the 2012 election, spending more time outside Juneau would certainly help her profile (and her bank balance), yet the timing and nature of her announcement did little to enhance that profile and a good deal to damage it.
Indeed, watching it reminded me of when she was first introduced to the wider world before the Republican convention. Then, she looked like she was attending hustings for a small-town mayoral election; her resignation speech was equally lacking in coherence, big ideas and gravitas.
A particularly strange argument advanced is the assertion that she can work at least as well towards her unspecified goals out of office as in it, free from the partisan bickering that comes with the job. That’s either untrue (the powers that come with high office are never irrelevant) or an admission of a complete failure in her leadership. Either way, it can’t be helpful to a future presidential bid.
Despite all that, she remains popular with vocal sections of the Republican base, a base that will play no small part in deciding the GOP nomination for 2012.
Assuming she avoids a serious scandal in the next year - an assumption that isn’t too safe - she’ll have to opportunity to speak to many of them at events that are either specifically fundraisers or at least laying the ground for a future network.
The bookies are certainly playing it safe with regard to her chances: the best odds available are with Paddy Power, who offer 10/1 for the presidency and 8/1 for the GOP nomination (which of the two, appears much better value). Against this, the last traded price at the time of writing on Betfair’s market for the 2012 presidential election was 39/1 - a figure which looks to me much more realistic, though for a similar price, Tim Pawlenty seems a better bet.
Most Republican candidates in recent decades have been right out of the heart of the party’s establishment: Nixon, Ford, Bush-41 and Dole were all highly traditional choices. Reagan, Bush-43 and McCain marginally less so but all came with pedigree. By contrast, Palin would be an even more unusual choice than Goldwater was (and he lost massively).
Palin’s VP run brings an element of seniority but her behaviour on the campaign wasn’t always well received within the party and now her resignation does nothing to quell fears of unpredictability should she be trusted with the biggest responsibility.
The sound advice would have been (and was) to go back to Alaska, develop her reputation, win re-election in 2010, improve her skills, knowledge and understanding and reappear a much more formidable person. She’s taken the opposite route and I expect will pay the price. Many political careers end in failure of one sort or another and Palin appears to be about to join that club.
David Herdson
MessageSpace Advertising
FIRST!
Sarah Palin is a joke.
Sarah Palin: bloggers & dtp, you have been warned.
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM124_release_for_7-4-09-1.html
“On July 3rd, 2009, Governor Sarah Palin announced her intent to resign her gubernatorial duties and transfer the powers of Governor to Lt. Governor Sean Parnell.
“Almost immediately afterwards, several unscrupulous people have asserted false and defamatory allegations that the “real” reasons for Governor Palin’s resignation stem from an alleged criminal investigation pertaining to the construction of the Wasilla Sports Complex. This canard was first floated by Democrat operatives in September 2008 during the national campaign and followed up by sympathetic Democratic writers. It was easily rebutted then as one of many fabrications about Sarah Palin. Just as power abhors a vacuum, modern journalism apparently abhors any type of due diligence and fact checking before scurrilous allegations are
repeated as fact.
“The history of the Wasilla Sports Complex is publicly known. Contrary to the insinuation that as Mayor of Wasilla, Sarah Palin “personally” oversaw bidding, construction, funding and accounting for the project (and thus, the allegation goes, “embezzled” from the project), the truth is far more mundane, and publicly available[.]”
…….
“To the extent several websites, most notably liberal Alaska blogger Shannyn Moore, are now claiming as “fact” that Governor Palin resigned because she is “under federal investigation” for embezzlement or other criminal wrongdoing, we will be exploring legal options this week to address such defamation. This is to provide notice to Ms. Moore, and those who re-publish the defamation, such as Huffington Post, MSNBC, the New York Times and The Washington Post, that the Palins will not allow them to propagate defamatory material without answering to this in a court of law. The Alaska Constitution protects the right of free speech, while simultaneously holding those “responsible for the abuse of that right.” Alaska Constitution Art. I, Sec. 5.
http://ltgov.state.ak.us/constitution.php?section=1. These falsehoods abuse the right to free speech; continuing to publish these falsehoods of criminal activity is reckless, done without any
regard for the truth, and is actionable.
“Thomas Van Flein, for
Governor Sarah Palin”
sorry for formating of above
3. Duly amended.
4 - thanks! And may I request same servic for all future typoz?
“..In her announcement, in which she rambled and at times rivalled John Prescott’s ability to string non-sequiteurs together,…
That’s a bit harsh on John Prescott
To quote another major Republican politician/movie star: “She’ll be back.”
As I type this, firecrackers are bursting not far outside my window. Darkness has finally fallen in Seattle on Independence Day. So far no alien invasion, but will peek out from time to time to confirm this.
Sarah Palin isn’t a joke, she’s a force. How potent and longlasting are up for grabs. But the force is undeniable.
Zero planning for this bombshell. As witnessed by the fact the Governor had to get a lawyer to write a threatening letter for her on a National Holiday AND a Saturday. (Try doing that yourself at home some quiet bank holiday weekend.)
My gut instinct was and still is that there is less to this particular story than meeting the blogging eye. Not that home improvement isn’t fraught with peril for politicos out there on The Last Frontier, or that there may indeed be some kind of inquiry by some federal agency or auditors. BUT as the man says, this is not new news.
Clear that Sarah Palin moves fast, zig-zags like a Murmasnsk convoy, and is not always (or generally) painstaking with facts or persnickity about compliance. Plus she’s able and willing to throw her weight and voice around when she wants to, which is often. BUT there is very little solid basis for concoluding she’s willfully or even absent-mindedly tried to defraud taxpayers or anyone else.
So my guess is she does NOT turn out to be Spiro Agnew in drag.
Well, there goes the New York Primary
In footnote to Palin’s threatening lawyer letter, it says that “Wayne Barrett, a writer for the left wing Village Voice, published these insituations…” Then goes on to say that writer was “pretending to be amazed” at small town initiative to achieve community projects. “Apparently this is uncommon in New York.”
Apparently Sarah Palin’s lawyer was bit grumpy due to having to leave his personal weenie roast on the 4th of July to write a sic’em’ letter for the Governor of All the Alaskas for the Time Being.
She’s a force and a joke.
The question is what happens in the primaries, when the unstoppable force comes up against the irresistibly ludicrous joke.
The establishment are going to hate her. The base are going to love her. And the more the establishment hate her, the more the base are going to love her.
I think it’s just going to come down to how the forces are aligned and who else runs; If the establishment vote is split among several plausible candidates, you could still see Palin coming through…
Sarah Palin’s main task is to get passed the snobbishnes of the Washington media. In order to achieve that she will have to spend far more time out of Alaska and in & around Washington. Her strategy should be to become the go-to person for the Conservative viewpoint.
2008 was too soon, but 2012 against a President whom Europe loves, but who will be viewed sceptically by an American public oppossed to high taxes and no doubt concerned by the huge defecit.
Time to play the gender card, if she can lower herself to use Liberal tactics.
10 - that’s a sensible strategy. And perhaps one she may execute at least somewhat (the conservative go-to, Barry Goldwater for one was VERY good at that one).
But taking advice good or bad - but especially good - definitely ain’t her strong suit.
63 Labour MPs now retiring…will it get to 100???
Hilary Armstrong, John Austin, John Battle, Colin Burgon, Richard Caborn, Colin Challen, Ben Chapman, David Chaytor, Michael Clapham, Harry Cohen, Frank Cook, Jim Cousins, Ann Cryer, John Cummings, Quentin Davies, Janet Dean, Jim Devine, Bill Etherington, Neil Gerrard, John Grogan, Doug Henderson, Patricia Hewitt, Keith Hill, Beverley Hughes, John Hutton, Brian Iddon, Adam Ingram, Lynne Jones, Martyn Jones, Ruth Kelly, Fraser Kemp, David Lepper, Chris McCafferty, Ian McCartney, Rosemary McKenna, Bob Marshall-Andrews, Eric Martlew, Alan Milburn, Margaret Moran, Elliot Morley, Kali Mountford, Chris Mullin, Doug Naysmith, Bill Olner, Greg Pope, Bridget Prentice, John Prescott, Ken Purchase, John Reid, Martin Salter, Mohammad Sarwar, Alan Simpson, John Smith, Helen Southworth, Ian Stewart, Gavin Strang, David Taylor, Mark Todd, Des Turner, Kitty Ussher, Rudi Vis, Alan Williams, Betty Williams, Tony Wright, Derek Wyatt
11.She made it to become Governer, pretty good for someone not good at taking advice. McCain was hardly the Republican party’s ideal candidate, yet she managed to stay loyal to him whilst showing off her..ahem credentials…I like her.
12 - Chris, when is Tessa Jowell getting added to the list?
14.She says she intends to continue…and I’ve never heard of a New Labour politician saying 1 thing and doing another…
I rather like Palin, for all her faults. Her problem is that she is something of a John Redwood figure. She electrifies a base that is in the minority of mainstream opinion and she turns off a majority of more ‘nuanced’ people. She is also, it seems to me, the sort of person who can’t understand the opposite point of view and will inevitably trip up in the heat of battle and polarise opinion.
She has a definite role to play, but being a candidate is not that role.
OT re nurses’ pay (from a couple of threads back).
Andrew Lansley, in apparently committing the Conservatives to local pay bargaining for nurses (and presumably other NHS staff), is in danger of falling into a classic Whitehall trap.
If health authorities, trusts and hospitals are to negotiate locally, then they will need to employ more staff — managers, lawyers and so on — to do so. Perhaps new payroll systems might need to be commissioned, written and debugged (depending how flexible the existing one is).
As Jim Hacker found, when you ask the department for new work, Sir Humphrey must employ more people to carry it out.
The internal market had the same drawback. The NHS needed a lot more bureaucrats to run it.
I suspect Palin is a busted flush, run for 2012 or not. For all the voltage she has generated, the party could well tire of her by the time it comes to the crunch, especially if scandal follows. In the words of Harry Enfield, woman know your limits. She doesnt, yet.
Meanwhile Belfast has yet again produced a fantastic morning. This morning I’ll jog through some of the toughest Loyalist and Republican areas in near silence, pass by new developments of fancy housing and apartments. I’ll then find myself going up onto the Black Mountain where I can look over the entire city, shipyard cranes showing fomer glories, Victorian domes, domino like terraces, grotesque tower blocks from the 60s & 70s, the decades building design forgot, the sea out to Scotland.
Its dirty stinking urban beauty, one of the best locations for a city anywhere…pity about some of the people in it…..
Happy 40th wedding anniversary to the Smithson’s.
Enjoy a glass of two of manzanilla, assume you have been already been to the palace of Medina Sidonia.
bugger - a grocers apostrophe crept in! Sorry
13 - Palin loyal to McCain? Now that really is a joke!
She was the most disloyal VP nominee in living memory.
So the Govt and authorities around the world have been significantly overusing Tamiflu against an essentially harmless form of flu, only to find that it has now built up drug resistant immunity in time for it to become more dangerous.
Anyone would think that they know what they are doing.
Palin’s main problem might be that George W Bush has devalued folksy charm.
But perhaps in a couple of years it will be back in fashion. Until then, as Sea Shanty Irish points out, Palin can make a good deal of money on the rubber chicken circuit, in the process becoming a viable presidential candidate. And if not, at least a celebrity right wing commentator.
18 - The surprise of Belfast is what a lovely city it is. Including some lovely people. And I don’t know the 1/1m of it like you do.
18 - As you say, Belfast has one of the best settings for a city in the world. If its city planners could concentrate on building a city to match that setting, the fortunes of the province would be transformed.
Palin again, wasnt it discussed last night?
Is the film W worth watching, btw?
18. Re Palin, I suspect that’s pretty much the nub of the issue: she is simply not good enough and if she’s not going to get and follow quality advice, never will be.
It’s one thing trying to raise her profile but that profile needs to be a positive asset if she aspires the the presidency, or at least, the nomination. At the moment, the more people see of her, the more it will damage her chances because she’s not capable (or interested?) in putting across a clear, consistent message.
It’s not so much that she doesn’t have a clear ideology - she does, though whether it would ever be enough to win the White House is debatable, especially against Obama. It’s more that her delivery is awful.
There may well be votes in being an anti-politician. Railing against the Washington establishment is often superficially popular but has its drawbacks too, of which scaring off those with an interest in the establishment is the biggest.
Even so, Reagan was able to pull the trick off but then Reagan was a master communicator (and it wasn’t just that he got good scripts, it was the emotional connection as well), and also had a successful spell as governor of America’s most populous state to back up the charm.
My expectation is that during the next two years, if Palin is serious about standing - something we shouldn’t take for granted - her faults will become just too apparent and the baton for leadership of her wing of the party will be picked up by someone else.
26. Depends what you want out of it. I doubt it will tell you anything you don’t already know but is well enough made and acted.
Palin is a joke. She embodies all we in Europe fear in America, xenophobic, uneducated and creationist. Jesus was born in Texas and grew up with the dinosaurs in Montana and his website is http://www.christisarealamericanhero.com
She should concentrate on being a mother to her young child with learning difficulties and leave the world stage politics to people with the intelligence to handle it.
Then again last week SKY Geographic channel had a programme in which the hypothesis was that several ancient cultures had predicted the world as we know it ending in 2012!! Sarah for President. Humanity for extinction.
Its Sunday morning, already 25 degrees outside, no last night opinion polls to digest and Gordon brown is still in Downing St. We may as well enjoy the day, the next 300 or so are not going to be any better (except possibly 2 weeks on Thursday of course).
On topic, I expect that Sarah Palin’s career will follow something close to the trajectory of this chap:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poujade
The figure on the right to eclipse her has yet to emerge, but it will.
21.Nonsense!
1.Despite joining a ticket whose managers best strategy included postponing the campaign ‘to deal with the financial crisis’. This involved cancelling a big interview with Letterman & nearly stopping the 1st Presedential debate before it even started. Then having arrived in Washington not submitting any ideas, instead falling in behind President Bush…
2.Despite having McCain staffers brief against her
3.Despite getting very little help when it came to the big set piece interviews
4.Despite a) being relegated to smaller venues and then
5.b) having to join McCain when his team realised SHE electrified HIS crowds
6.Despite policy differences, hers being much closer to the base
Despite all of that and more she was loyalty personified, but the media had their man, and so it was written: America was not going to be a racist country because it was going to elect Obama.
In 2012 Obama won’t get such an easy ride, the Republicans need a star of their own & I can’t think of anyone else right now, in the party, who comes close to Palin. He only has to patronise her once, and she begins to eat into a part of his base.
Very little, I suspect. I don’t think she has the wit to be up to anything particularly clever, unfortunately.
27.Re: Reagan comparison
I don’t know if she will ever make it to 8 years in the White House, but I imagine if we had been having this conversation in 1975 you’d be saying similar things about Reagan.
You say she isn’t capable of putting across a ‘clear consistent message’. How do you know? She was effectively put into a McCain straitjacket in 2008, give the girl a chance. People of Alaska certainly fell for her charms, or maybe were impressed by her ability.
In your next paragraph you say: ‘It’s not so much that she does not have a clear ideology, she does’. Well, seems from several thousand miles away her inconsistent, unclear message, has never the less made you confident that you understand her ideology!
Her delivery is not awful. She is one of the few Politicians who can speak to people without beginning to sound like an Alien. The challenge will be whether she can sharpen up her knowledge of international affairs/economics & still sound human - the Politican that achieves that usually wins.
Reagan in hindsight was a master communicator & a great President, didn’t stop him being beaten in 1976 &few would have predicted then his eventual triumph. I wouldn’t write Palin off just yet.
John Major, David Miliband and Jack Straw on Andrew Marr show.
Alistair Darling, Ken Clarke, and Vince Cable on Boulton.
33 “Reagan in hindsight was a master communicator & a great President, didn’t stop him being beaten in 1976″
What twaddle. Carter beat Ford in 1976.
You’re clearly about as well qualified a commentator as she is a Presidential candidate, namely useless.
35.Geoff…Reagan ran for the nomination and was defeated by Ford…
The 1976 National Convention of the Republican Party of the United States met at Kemper Arena in Kansas City, Missouri, from August 16 to August 19, 1976. The convention nominated incumbent Gerald Ford for President, but only after narrowly defeating a strong challenge from former California governor Ronald Reagan. The convention also nominated Kansas Senator Robert J. Dole for Vice President, replacing the incumbent V.P., former New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller. The keynote address was delivered by Tennessee Senator Howard Baker.
But thanks for your interest.
37.Thanks for your commentary though LOL
Palin is so useless she needs to be massively attacked at all opportunities it seems.
Surely if she is so bad she is no threat and can be ignored?
33. Not having enough help for the interviews? You’re having a laugh. They desperately tried to get her to prepare for interviews but she didn’t want to listen to anyone. The one time they managed to get her to concentrate was for the VP debate, when they isolated her, and it was the one time she came over as not being horribly uneducated.
Why has Palin resigned, betcha a, ‘clip’ will appear on youtube anyday soon.
41.OK I should have checked with you 1st, since you give the impression that you were in the room, during this alleged ‘help’ that Ms Palin received or not..from ‘them’. But ‘they’ did a good job in the VP debate against a Senator of 35 years I agree, well done ‘them’.
38. Defeating a sitting president in a party’s own primaries takes a huge amount of effort and ability, even one with as weak a mandate as Ford had. For Reagan to come as close as he did, taking it to the convention, speaks volumes. No other challenger has come close to accomplishing the same end; Ted Kennedy failed by some distance to unseat Carter (but did help clear the way for Reagan, as Reagan had for Carter by damaging Ford).
On your earlier post, yes, it is possible to work out what Palin stands for but she needs to able to communicate it effectively. Watch the video clip at the top if you’ve not seen it yet. It’s not that she’s short of things to say; it’s that she seems to fire them out as they come into her head without any overarching theme. There is a theme there but it’s implicit.
Anyway, you’re entitled to your view. If you’re that confident in her ability, the odds ought to be attractive.
A BBC journalist is among the favourites to become the SNP candidate in the hotly contested Glasgow North East by-election, created by the departure of former speaker Michael Martin.
David Kerr, a reporter at BBC Scotland, is understood to have joined two other candidates, local Glasgow councillor James Dornan and European parliament candidate Aileen McLeod.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/BBC-presenter-tipped-as-SNP.5430074.jp
Poor ‘ol Lansley!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197555/Tories-Andrew-Lansley-walks-Labours-internet-trap—little-help-glamorous-woman.html
43. I feel there’s a lot more evidence out there that my statement is right than yours that she was “getting very little help”. There will always be ideologues who are true believers in Palin, but all the evidence suggests she is an egotist who is lazy in her preparation and contemptuous towards anyone who disagrees with her. Staffers in the McCain campaign turned against her for a reason.
‘Booth hails Scottish penal reform’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8134264.stm
CHERIE Blair, the wife of the former prime minister, has dealt an embarrassing blow to Labour by praising the SNP’s “courageous” plans to reform Scotland’s prison system.
Meanwhile, former first minister Henry McLeish, who led a commission on sentencing for the SNP Government, accused his own party of misleading voters over the proposals, describing their opposition as “ridiculous”.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/-Cherie-Blair-backs-SNP.5430105.jp
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2518275.0.0.php
O/T a spine chilling story by Chris Booker in the Telegraph, once again illustrating the frightening powers of destruction wielded by social workers - the revolutionary guard of the New Labour regime.
What odds that, even if the family concerned win this case, no-one among the SW establishment will be brought to book for the damage caused?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5743419/Is-the-state-guilty-of-child-kidnap.html
“Govt. are heading us for national bankruptcy” - John Major
‘SNP Would Bankrupt an Independent Scotland, But Benefit England’
http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article11794.html
Ah, if only John Major had had the foresight to introduce STV while he was in office, we need not have had 12 wasted years of Labour government.
David, I agree with you, and below is a reply to Nick Palmer on this subject. As a former supporter of Palin for VP I am abashed that she would seemingly throw away, and in such a clumsy method any chance for a presidential run in 2012.
Unless she hides away for a time, and like a butterfly from a chrysalis, emerges a changed woman, (though not in looks one hopes), I fear she is doomed.
37. NPMP, for once I agree with you; Palins speech was a minor disaster for her in my reckoning.
Whatever her reason for leaving the post of Governor of Alaska, the manner of her leaving puts paid to any future with the Republican Party.
If she runs for the senate only diehards will now support her. Pity really, as she could have made an attempt to get more worldly aware while in the governorship.
I believe her family and friends have given her the wrong advice.
by weathercock July 4th, 2009 at 9:41 am
44.You can’t compare the unique circumstances which President Ford faced when facing Governer Reagan with anything before or since. Ford wasn’t even on the ticket in 1972, he had no mandate, he had just pardoned Nixon, he was way behind in the polls - he still beat one of my political heroes.
Really puzzled that you don’t credit her communication skills, she drew vast crowds, no-one could have beat the media narrative in 2008. She was Obama’s biggest threat - the media did the Democrats job for them, they went in for character assassination - and with some at least - it appears to have worked.
I’m sure you wouldn’t say you were smarter than the next man. I’m sure if you have understood Ms Palin’s themes, even if they are implied, that during an election campaign when more light is shone on a candidates views/character, even someone with less intelligence than yourself will be able to reach a view.
‘Scots Would Reject Independence in Vote’
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/33714/scots_would_reject_independence_in_vote/
46. Coldstone
I hardly think that yet another article about Labour smears, lies and dirty tricks that drags one of the few semi-credible Labour bloggers (Hilton) into the gutter and highlights Labour’s latest internet black-ops whizzo wheeze is something you should be crowing about.
‘Black Ops’ are not supposed to be spread all over the pages of newspapers ya know.
Labour Lies, Labour Spins,
Labour twists in the wind…
And is too incompetent to do it efficiently and too stupid to realise that people don’t like it……..
‘300 years too long for adjournment’
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/-300-years-too-long.5430052.jp
56
Never complain about what the others side does to you, complain when your side falls for it.
All the evidence, (and there is plenty of it) shows that Lansley is an idiot.
47.I’ll take your word for it. You believe the campaign staffers, and all the evidence is as you say. ok. Might I suggest you think about possible motives why these nameless people might try and scapegoat the VP choice of McCain? These same people were responsible for a dreadful campaign. But you believe their evidence, and that’s good enough for you.
58 - Coldstone, the Mail’s article on Lansley was linked to last night and is covered on the previous thread. Not much in the way of discussion, but may be worth a look if interested.
Btw, A bit out of character for you to highlight Labour unpleasantness, did you leap before you looked?
58, Lansley is definitely a bit of a plank.
However, there’s nothing in the article other than Labour spin.
And what if Labour introduce below inflation pay rises? Will it be trumpeting its own ‘real term cuts’?
60
Hmmm, ‘black ops’ perfectly acceptable tactic, providing they don’t break the law.
Lansley is a weak link, a bumbling moron, if you can exploit him do so. The Tories rather than complain, go tit-for-tat, which I’m sure they’ll do.
PH in fine form.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1197502/PETER-HITCHENS-Dave-leader-Heather-Mommies-Party-.html
Has a go at everyone.
http://www.labourlist.org/more_to_do_discrimination_prejudice_prevaent_playground_ed_balls
More balls from Balls.
If you think you can stop 16 year olds using ‘gay’ as a derogatory term, good luck.
58. Coldstone
I wasn’t complaining about it. After all, each time you post such things it gives me the opportunity to post my little verse.
Labour Lies, Labour Spins,
Labour twists in the wind…
Thanks again!
46 Too much to hope that with the “departure” of McBride, Labour might have cleaned up its act. Clearly it is still tooled up for fighting the dirtiest war possible, to turn as many people as it can away from politics - and from voting.
62, uh no.
Lansley said people would be paid a proper wage which was then reported as a blank cheque. When he said this wasn’t the case it was reported that he’d cut wages.
It’s smearing and spin and socialist bullshit propaganda.
Boulton: Do you agree we need to freeze public sector pay
Darling: No…er public sector pay depends on the prevailing market conditions
so was that a yes or a no?
Darling concedes economy is in worse shape than he predicted in budget.
Boulton: Did the PM want to sack you and replace you with Ed Balls?
Darling: There’s some conversations I never repeat…
62. Coldstone
Do you agree with Peter Hitchens view of Section 28? Does the Labour Party?
I find that I cannot trust my own judgement on Palin! She really shouldn’t do well nationally - the train crash Couric interview, her apparent failure to do her homework since the election, and her limited experience in office(2.5 years as governor of a small state). I also like John L’s comment (22) that George W has devalued folksy charm.
All this should disqualify her from serious consideration for US president, and I’m tempted to lay her on betfair even in the 30s. But I can’t bring myself to do that because she does have a strong hold over an important and vocal part of the Republican primary electorate. And there is a scenario where she could possibly win the nomination, if the opposition is divided (ok, perhaps any politician could win the Republican primary if the opposition against them is divided?) by tapping into the evangelical wing’s fund-raising abilities and energy and building momentum from winning some of the early primaries.
One effect of her resignation is that within a couple of weeks, the 3 leading current candidates Romney, Huckabee and Palin will all be out of office (Romney and Huckabee were no longer governors at the time of the 2008 election). In the next tier, Pawlenty will not stand for re-election in 2010 and Gingrich (who probably won’t run, but you never know) left Congress in 2000. Will it become a trend that you can’t stand for President if you are still in office, particularly as a governor away from Washington? Or will these candidates, especially Romney and Huckabee be attacked for not having recently stood for election?
John McDonnell, Labour MP for Hayes and Harlington, CIF
“Another week, another relaunch. This week’s “Buildild Britain’s Future” is the fifth Gordon Brown relaunch. Launched on Monday, dismissed by Tuesday and largely forgotten by Wednesday.”
“The Labour government’s latest attempt to relaunch itself has turned into yet another political disaster”
It’s a funny old world when the Guardian reads more like the Mail and Labour speak as the opposition.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/04/gordon-brown-labour
It’s a useful piece (except for the ostriches who don’t care what happens in America) and the thread is helpful too, because it includes supporters like chris_g00. I’m not sure she was that unswervingly loyal (there was a well-publicised complaint that McCain was giving up on states like Pennsylvania that she thought they ought to be fighting), but that sort of strain turns up in any losing campaign.
Because she’s such an American phenomenon, it’s easy to underrate her appeal, in the same way that British sophisticates were baffled by the success of Reagan and George W. Cheery patriotic optimism takes you a long way in American politics. Serious intellectuals tend to struggle, which is the less obvious reason why Obama’s success (so far) is unusual. That said, most Americans don’t like flakiness, and I think she’s close to getting that label.
It’d be interesting to hear S&S’s take as a Republican, though SSI’s is notably fair-minded.
63. Ah I see that the Daily Mash has taken over LabourList.
49. runnymede. The problem is that we want social workers to be diligent and to protect children in cases like baby P, and not to be put off from going after rich but bad parents. On the face of the facts in the article one would agree that the social worker has overstepped the bounds. A good social work system would support social workers who have made difficult (and perhaps wrong in retrospect) decisions in good faith, but would bring under control those who have overstepped the mark. It’s clear that the system as presently configured does not do the former and I am uncertain about the latter.
71 Of course Gordon cares about America, as far as he is concerned, “It started in America” whatever the subject is.
72, I know. LabourList has been really gay recently.
69
I’m not a member of the Labour Party or of any party, I’m a lefty but I left party allegiance behind, along time ago. I certainly can’t stand the Tories though, can’t wait to see Dave-n-pals in office its gonna be great fun.
As for section 28, no interest in it one way or the other.
Good to see ‘Dave the Apologetic’ come over all, ‘Gay Friendly’ (Camp David)as most Tories that I know think there’s nothing wrong with homosexuals, that a dose of the Edward the Second wouldn’t sort out.
I had to check the Mash, this is good.
“A Downing Street spokesman said: “With Peter Mandelson doing the actual governing the prime minister is now able to spend a lot more time with his friends. Which creates an obvious problem.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/no%11one-to-phone-a-radio-show-ever-again-200907031874/
76.Shows the difference between Tory & Labour, there are many Tories who understood the need for Section 28, but are on the whole keeping quiet. Labour backbenchers are all over the place, there is no subject on which the media cannot find at least one who will attack his own party.
Tories fighting to win, Labour getting ready to fight each other.
76. Well I’m glad you are so open about your frivolous view of politics. Some unknowing occasional visitor to this site might have taken you seriously but then again you are a ‘lefty’ so perhaps not……
One final thought before I have to disappear, Milliband on ID cards….the line he took was to diminish the statement made by Johnson earlier this week. “Of course ID cards were always going to be voluntary, it’s in the legislation, I don’t know what all the fuss is about….”
Milliband will challenge for the leadership have no doubt, once Labour loses this unwinnable election. Will Johnson definately go for it?
In waiting for election defeat is Milliband being wise or cowardly?
54. Did she really draw ‘vast crowds’ or did it just seem like that compared with what you rightly identify at a lacklustre and halting campaign from McCain? Compared with either Obama or Clinton in the primaries, my guess would be that she wasn’t as big an attraction. Sure, she probably outshone Biden, but Biden wasn’t there to add sparkle to the ticket. She may well have outshone McCain too but that says at least as much about him as her.
In any case, while you’re right in saying that she does enthuse a significant element of the GOP base, that’s not enough to win an election. Besides - and this is the key point - she has to get her message across. This is nowhere near as easy a task as it sounds because probably a majority of the opposition’s advertising will be aiming to undermine it, to point out contradictions and unpopular policies and actions. It is very easy to get bogged down in defending or explaining what was said yesterday - and then to blame the media for not reporting more favourably.
Avoiding that fate is not just about not making mistakes, it’s about leading the debate; setting out a vision that both supporters and media can buy into and which at worst sets the framework for critical questions. I just don’t see any potential for her to do either.
The biggest danger for Palin now is ridicule not anonymity. As a former VP candidate, she could afford a couple of years out providing she came back stronger. Sure, ridicule will fire up her supporters still more stongly but if it resonates with key voters, she’s finished. Her problem is she’s providing all the material her critics need.
79
If when you get to my age, you aren’t ‘frivolous’ about politics there’s something wrong with you.
As for, ‘black ops’ this guy was the, ‘grandmaster’
http://www.webspawner.com/users/aylesbury24/index.html
Bet it never worried him!
67. “Boulton: Do you agree we need to freeze public sector pay
Darling: No…er public sector pay depends on the prevailing market conditions”
So that will be pay cuts then!
80 I thought Milliband did a good job on Marr - and on the silly season Speedo story.
Major was very measured as always - loved his matching pink socks and tie - VERY gay friendly
84
Hmmm this comment by Major hasn’t been trumpeted by Tory PB’rs.
He said the economic hole is “as deep as I can ever remember’… about as bad as it has ever got”. He said the recovery pattern will be very slow and that it would be “remiss” of Whitehall and local councils not to be looking at “significant spending reductions”. He said that there would more likely be a mix of tax rises and public spending reductions, but that if serious spending reductions were not undertaken that we may well see 5% added to the standard rate of income tax and VAT at 20%.
I do hope Mr Cameron will be popping that into the manifesto.
54.couldn’t resist, but now really have to go!
from politico
…but the Florida GOP is saying tonight that Palin’s crowd broke state attendance records. At the very least, it outpaced the 15,000 President Bush drew to the retirement community four years ago.
To reiterate: An Alaska governor who was virtually unknown a month ago and is the number two on the presidential ticket may have doubled or tripled the crowd for a sitting president.
86.instead of 54 see 81 !!!!
77 This had me creased up:
“Mr Brown spoke to Mr McKay for an hour insisting the government was increasing public spending by 15,000% a year for the next 2000 years, while the Downing Street psychiatrist stood behind him shaking his head and mouthing, ‘just ignore him, I’ll deal with it later’.”
79. I doubt it did worry Ball seeing as he was dead when his machinations were exposed (although we don’t know how he explained himself to the almighty).
David Herdson@81: “Sure, ridicule will fire up her supporters still more strongly but if it resonates with key voters, she’s finished.”
Of course, the key voters here are the people who vote in Republican primaries. So the question is whether she can win the Republican primary by firing up Christianists and the most uncompromising right-wingers. Seems to me that it could work if:
1) The party continues to trend Christianist / uncompromising (likely)
2) The opposition is split the right way (unlikely but possible)
85 Coldstone - as I said Major was measured, if that is required to fix the mess Labour will leave behind, then I’m not sure it’s something to be pleased about.
After all, no matter which way you vote - we all live with the consequences - and in Labour’s case - I wish they would grow up and think about the country and not themselves right now.
Coldstone forgives all of Labour’s sins - but is getting his sandwiches made and his Thermos filled to be head of the queue of rock-throwers when Cameron suffers the consequences of having to treat the task of governing us seriously.
I bet he would have been in the front row at Tyburn hangings.
Re Sarah Palin.
The only thing she is capable of in politics is damaging herself and the Republican Party.
Its unlikely now that the Republican leadership and moderate/educated wing will have to deal with her as she seems intent on imploding.
As David Brooks said she is a “cancer on the Republican Party”.
On a betting note, this plus Mark Sanfords demise make Mitt Romney a sound favourite for the Rep. Nomination
6/1 with Ladbrokes when he’s 3/1 on intrade and with Paddy Power is a decent price for anyone prepared to tie up their money.
6/1
It never ceases to amaze me the stupidity of some Labour and LD supporters on their comments on American Politics.
It is not the same as UK Politics, whether you like America or even Palin there is a very Solid reason why Palin having exited Office may come back and smack some of the usual masoginistic posters here very hard in the jaw!
The US is probably the most right wing Democracy in the world, for all the flaws of Bush and the Gops period in office they still managed to get 47% in the POTUS vote! What does this mean, A significant number of US voters will not listen to Obama because he is Black and the leftist “Socialist” platform Obama was elected on may have scored him a solid electoral college but the victory was not as “Deep” as some would claim.
The reason why Palin might have made an inspired move, despite the media giving her a poor resception in this country at least is the elephant that will be in the next US POTUS Election in the room. That is Big Government!
Palin though leaving office now no longer has the proplem of being accountable for Taxpayer Dollar wastage in grand but ineffective schemes. I read somewhere yesterday that only 15% of the Obama Fiscal Stimulous package has actually been seen to help jobs. Rather than 3 Million Jobs created by the Obama plan the real result is marginal. What does this mean? In a country where the persuit of wealth creation and Dollars in the the hand of the individual and not the state Obabma is heading for a backlash IMO. The Tax Bill may only feed through in Financial Years 2011/2012. Somebody is in for a big shock!
Re: ‘Many political careers end in failure . . ‘.
The original is: ‘All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs. The career of Joseph Chamberlain was not an exception.’
Enoch Powell: Joseph Chamberlain; London: Thames & Hudson, 1977: p151.
85. Coldstone. It’s rises of 4p in basic rate and cuts in spending of 7%ish, or cuts of 20% and no hikes in taxes. Back of the envelope stuff done by the likes of John Kay in the FT. It is based on current forecasts of spending plus reasonable estimates of GDP growth. This applies no matter who is in charge. That is Gordon’s legacy. Labour - always economically incompetent. Don’t try to make the claim that this is the fault of the Conservatives - this is Labour’s legacy to the country. It’s why they should be voted out of office and destroyed as a viable political force for a generation.
81 - She drew very big crowds. Not as big as Obama of course, but he was a superstar candidate and going for the Presidency, not a comparatively worthless deputy position so the comparison is a bit ridiculous. Certainly more than Clinton in the dying weeks of her campaign - although again Clinton was a big draw in the earlier stages when she was presumptive nominee. To say “she probably outshone Biden” is an astonishing understatement - though I agree he wasn’t drafted for the glamour.
The fact she is still big news, still sells papers and news reports, and still has threads dedicated to her on foreign political blogs eight months after a decisive defeat with McCain says something about her peculiar appeal. Was the same true of John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp or Lloyd Bentsen? These people weren’t trivial political figures and resurfaced again in several cases, but they ceased to be major news in the years following defeat.
My view is Palin cannot win the Presidency - enough people understand she is trouble and wouldn’t touch her with a ten foot pole. But she could get the GOP nomination. If some of the bigger figures sit it out fearing defeat in 2012, then what are you left with? Even GOPers who see the writing on the wall might prefer a wild ride on the Palin bandwagon than a rather dreary procession with the Pawlenty hearse.
at last she has taken a good decision!!
86 - Palin drew large crowds in Florida, made speeches about “real Americans”, alienated the Latino vote and guaranteed an Obama win in that state.
By the end of the campaign the atmosphere at her rallies stank so much that they became monoethnic meetings for the angry
If she’s around next time doing the same thing then Arizona and even Texas could be vulnerable.
96 - I hope you are talking about a generation of Galapagos Island tortoises!
98
Sounds just like whats in prospect for the Labour party.
73. ‘overstepped the mark’ Ken?
I think you are missing the point a little. It’s not the judgement of these people that is the problem, so much as the extraordinary powers they have to seize children and brand parents unfit on the flimsiest of pretexts, and without anything remotely resembling due process.
It would be bad enough if we granted such sweeping powers to people who could generally be trusted to use them wisely, but to give them to a group of people so tainted by political correctness and weird ideology and with such an appalling record of miscarriages of justice is reckless beyond measure.
100 - The Labour party can survive losing Arizona.
O/T:
It is interesting but my age group, especially the ones out of work really object to paying the BBC Licience Fee! I hate paying it due to its Pro-Labour biase but some folk in my age group object to it because its programs are rubbish, there is plenty of choice elsewhere - it has simply ceased to be viable. I have increasingly taken to including in my complaints about Pro-Labour biase the fact that i being out of Work as a result of the Government they support have to pay this Tax on TV, which is something i cannot afford.
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1197531/Licence-rebel-prosecuted-BBC-finally-tackles-TV-fee-refuseniks.html
92. No - he would have been standing on the cart…
94 I’ve always been surprised by the misconception by many over here that Democrats over there bear some resemblance to the LD or Labour parties.
They may be to the left of the Republicans but that’s not saying much.
On Palin, I can see her appeal to a lot of the very conservative voters - what I find inexplicable though is now infamously inarticulate is she. That resignation speech was painful - I gave in after about 7 minutes of disconnected rambling.
Perhaps a thread on how Prescott did so well would be an interesting comparison!
I only saw him once [speaking at a memorial service] and he was word perfect, funny and sharp - what made him talk gibberish the rest of the time had me baffled.
102
Very good Tim LOL
98 - Arizona’s been trending Democratic for a while anyway due to demographic change (rapidly growing, principally in the Hispanic community). McCain’s candidacy only partially masked this strong trend. It will be “minority majority” within ten years and I suspect Obama has a good chance regardless of who is GOP candidate.
92
Ah! well as I onced worked in the building, (Marble Arch) that overlooked the Tyburn Tree, yep!
Interesting note, when they replaced the original gallows, for the much larger one, (four yardarms, capacity eight per yardarm, but I think 26 was the most at any one one) the old gallows was turned into a frame, which the beer barrels at the nearby ‘Carpenters Arms’ now stand on: well so I was told.
ken@96: “…this is Labour’s legacy to the country. It’s why they should be voted out of office and destroyed as a viable political force for a generation.”
You forgot to mention that Brown has done something similar to Japan, the US and numerous other countries. Keep Labour out of office for a century, I say…
93 Yay! The return of Mitt “Flying Man”! Romney.
Spot the difference:
http://tinyurl.com/l3yj2g
http://tinyurl.com/lq8gmy
At least Romney has the wealth to buy his way into the primaries. I would think he is a good bet in the current fiancial climate. It is going to be much harder for other candidates to get the cash together in the current business climate than it has been in recent years..
110. MM -
I like the name “Romney” - it always reminds me of Star Trek!
Beam me up some Totty!
101. runnymede. There may be a case for reviewing the powers they have. But, as we saw in the baby P case there are lots of internal barriers, checks and constraints. I do happen to think the whole “for the chillun” idiocy has gone too far, but I dont want social workers to be afraid of putting children into care if it is really necessary. I especially do not want social workers unwilling to go after rich educated bad parents.
What we need is a professional social work system that sees front line workers getting the managerial backing they need and a crack down on bad practice - which this Telegraph article may be an example of. What we do not need is a witch hunt or an idiotic report from Lord “computerised targets” Laming.
110 - And Republicans do have a habit of picking people who have run before.
He will also be in his late 60s next time, and some of the younger possible may think “we’ll let Mitt take the hit” this time around.
90. I agree with that analysis and wouldn’t be too surprised were she to take the nomination. As I’ve said, there’s a consituency she enthuses and for whom she is the star. It does require a lot to go right for her though and she still seems more likely to be the flagbearer than the spokesman for her movement - but if no-one else steps into the breach, she’s well-placed. That said, the obvious comparison is with Johnson in 1964 and I’d anticipate the same kind of EC vote outcome.
93. Not sure about Mitt Romney for 2012. He was in retrospect the right candidate for 2008, given the way the issues developed and probably could have won the nominatio with a better and more positive campaign. Things may have moved on in three years’ time.
Some very good news for those with HIV - soon you’ll no longer be banned from travelling to the USA.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/05/hiv-visa-america-paul-thorn
Palin: On the assumption that her actions are not because of an up-coming expose of naughtiness, but a calculated political move, what’s going on? (If there is a skeleton pushing on the door of the closet, then she’s finished.)
We don’t know what she intends, but here’s a guess.
Being a State Guv of a not-very key state out in the boonies is not helpful to anyone with ambitions. Nor is the fact that many in the political establishment and nearly all the MSM want her trashed. And being Guv makes her a sitting duck - literally any problem in the state can be laid at her door, whether it was her fault or not. Not being tied to specific responsibilities would be a smart move, critics would then have to resort even more to the personal and from what I read that’s showing diminishing returns, she’s been attacked so often it’s starting to look like an unjustified hate campaign.
McCain picking her was a shock to all, but boy, did it liven up the campaign and more importantly brought her to the attention of a lot of potential voters who’d probably never heard of her. What many have forgotten is that McCain was expected to lose - even by his own party. If he hadn’t been, they’d never have allowed him to pick Palin, she was unknown, had had serious fights with incumbents of her own party in the State and was not regarded as part of the machine. She got to be Guv while being outside the in-crowd. That’s impressive.
Assume she likes the idea of being a big-time player - well, she ain’t gonna be if she stays in Alaska, all the party wheeling and dealing is done in Washington and she won’t be there. So unless a miracle happens and another official Pres pick candidate adopts her as VP (never gonna happen), she’s heading for obscurity.
What to do? Only one answer - ignore the conventional route to the top table and appeal directly to voters over the heads of the party machine, just as she did in Alaska. If she gets enough grass-root support the party big-wigs will not be able to ignore her. It’s risky, but it’ll be fun watching what happens.
94. Cood point Martin about Obama and job creation.
The opposite has happened. Since Obama took office US unempoloyement has jumped from 6,000,000 to 9,500,000. There in raw figures a jump of over 55%.
Indeed Obama is adding to the miseries of ordinary Americans, with his misbegotten spending spree with money he dosn’t have, i.e, Money he prints as he goes.
Meanwhile top Managers of former failed or nearly failed financial companies are helping themselves to ever increasing bonuses. No wonder the Great Mesiah is slipping in the polls.
109. EiT. Ah, the old “it’s happening in other countries” therefore it isnt Brown’s fault. Correlation is not causation. Cause of big deficits in Japan, US, UK is bad policy decisions. Brown is responsible for bad policy decisions in the UK. Bush is (mainly) responsible for bad policy decisions in the US. A whole system of governance (dating back to Kakuei Tanaka) is responsible for Japan’s policy mess.
Your argument is a phony one. That is akin to the argument - Brown was responsible for the global boom. The US boomed at the same time as the UK boomed, was Brown responsible for the US boom? Of course not, you can instantly see the idiocy of the argument.
114 - All Romney has to to is be a safe pair of hands and let his rivals eat themselves at this rate.
At the moment it looks like a Huckabee vs Romney race with one from the “reforming wing” and one from the “small government” wing amking up the numbers.
Jindal for VP on a Romney Ticket may be likely
110 - I think you’re being premature. US Presidential elections are long, but the big decisions won’t be made until the mid-terms are out of the way. By early 2011, there is every prospect that the world economy will be much better. In any event, if you believe it will be a very prolonged depression, Romney’s personal investments will continue to suffer (he still has substantial wealth but I would wager less than a year or two ago).
112. Ken - where were all the ‘internal barriers’ etc. in this case?
The reality is they only ‘exist’ if there is already a predisposition to do nothing. If they want to act, SWers have a frightening degree of power to do so and almost total protection from any negative consequences of their actions.
This power has actually grown over the years, despite numerous cases of appalling miscarriages of justice, in response to the hysteria surrounding cases like that of Baby P. Yet cases like that continue to arise…
There’s a broader theme here, too. Another of today’s news stories features a senior police officer suggesting the Contempt of Court Act needs reviewing, on the grounds that provisions in it which are aimed at preventing trials being prejudiced are making his life more difficult.
Different area, same story - more and more power being given to unaccountable public bodies at the expense of personal liberties, in order to meet spurious policy goals. The state is becoming the enemy of the public, not its servany.
121. runnymede. I agree that there are areas where the State is arrogating far too much power to itself. I worry about the removal of double jeopardy and the suspension of the right to a jury trial*. I agree that much of it boils down to knee jerk legislation written in haste and repented at leisure.
My personal view is that we might consider giving greater power to the HoL in its role as a reviewer of legislation.
It would be fascinating if we could compare the internal decision making process that allows baby P to be left with her mother and the attempt to remove children from the “Jones” family.
* And yet the individual cases - the first ones in both cases are “good”, but it represents a significant breach of common law rights that have been a keystone of individual liberty.
ken@118, my point is that these massive deficits are being mainly caused by a massive global recession. Attributing Britain’s part of it to the government in Britain at the time doesn’t make sense if the same thing is happening in numerous other countries at the same time.
Of course the corollary is that if there’s a boom in Britain at the same time as most other Western countries, Brown isn’t responsible for the boom in Britain. Obviously being a politician he’d try to take credit for it. But no sensible person would believe him.
123. The increase in the deficit is the result of the recession; the absolute scale of it is the result of running a 3% deficit after a decade and a half’s solid growth combined with policies like the VAT reduction.
115. If we had the same rules here, our hiv rates would be dramatically lower. Heterosexual transmission of hiv in the UK is almost entirely sourced from infected sub saharan africans.
117. weathercock
This is why many of the personal comments of peoples dislike for her and them saying it is over for her is far from the mark. I actually think it maybe seen as inspired in a few years time - Taxes will have to go up in America as big Government leaches taxpayer pockets further, just in time for 2012! Palin will not be part of that either at State level, she will be the outsider against the Big Government Obama guy!
Plato may have misinterpreted what i said or i what she said on the Labour/LD position with reguard to Democrats. Yes there is a large number of Democrats significantly to the right of British Labour/LD. What i am refering to is the complete lack of perception amoung Labour/LD voters here about what is acceptable over there in terms of levels of Taxation and public spending! I just do not think they get it! I like Obama personally - i liked some of the populous stuff like taking his office out for a Burger etc. That does not equate to me supporting his policy platform as it is a complete f*cking mess! From what i can see the complete lack of strategy of plans for rolling out health care etc will just end in failure like his stimulous plan.
I also think that many on the centre or the left in the UK completly misunderstand the hostility to taxes and big Government in the US. Palin might have a chance of becoming Potus by running as anti-Big Government candidate who is from outside the Beltway and not part of the Political Establishment. That anti-Politician/anti-big Government platform IMO would be much stronger than many realise. Obama is only six months into his first term - I think it is a bit premature for talk of Democrat landslides in 2012! The States is very different to Britain and i think folk tend to transpose 1997 from the UK onto Obama in 2008, it is very different!
Edmund in Tokyo @ 123 re global recession.
This is where the Conservatives have won the battle to establish their media narrative — Gordon Brown’s debt — over Labour’s version — it’s a global financial crisis.
Perhaps in part owing to McBride’s departure?
122 “arrogating”
New word for me, Ken - and I like to think I have a chunky vocabulary. Abrogating I knew; I just thought “arrogating” was what happened when folks from Leeds went on a local day trip…
Pb.com - it continues to “educate, inform - and enrich”. Perhaps we could run a contest to have a stab at coming up with a site motto - with top marks if it is put into fancy-pants Latin! And maybe if there is a graphic designer out there who wants to craft a coat of arms to go with it?
123 “Brown isn’t responsible for the boom in Britain. Obviously being a politician he’d try to take credit for it. But no sensible person would believe him.”
Hence its appeal to the core vote then…
123/129 - Actually he is partly responsible for the boom, built largely as it was on the back of runaway house prices, unprecedented levels of immigration and massive growth in public expenditure.
85. OMG, you seem gleeful at the way Labour has trashed the nations finances. John Major is as straight as they come, and he is willing to say what others are frightened of saying.
I am still astonished by the glee. It really is frightening, when people talk of ’scorched earth’, the more rational person inside me, thinks, no, surely not, these people are politicians, and they scheme etc, but at their base, they want what is best for this nation, even if we disagree about how to get there.
But, it is beginning to look like this Government (with the enthusiastic support of people like you) is intent on deliberately making the life of the next government as difficult as possible.
I used the term earlier on in the week of Browns government piss7ng into the drinking well, i believe it is now getting worse then that, and he has actually attached the sewage outlet from number 10 directly into the well.
125 Gaz, it’s about preventing transmission not banning the poor sods who’ve got it.
My uncle was one of the first to die of AIDS and right in the middle of the iceberg campaign - the prejudice was appalling and I don’t think that ostracising these people is the way to go.
And I agree with your reaction to coldstone - I was tempted to use the word ‘glee’ myself.
123. Yes but a substantial structural deficit existed before the recession hit, and that is why the deficit is now headed for such stratospheric levels.
131 The worry for Labour has to be that they get tagged with the “scorched earth” meme. That wouldn’t just lose them a couple of elections - it would end Labour as a credible political force (and give Cameron a get-out-of-jail-free card for the next few years). I think if Cameron and Clegg and Salmond and Jones and Farage and Lucas all fiercely levelled that charge, I have serious doubts that Labour are sufficiently nimble right now to stop it hitting them straight smack plumb between the eyes.
128 - I was reading Andrew Roberts’ History of the English-Speaking Peoples since 1900 (not recommended, incidentally), and came across the following:
“Whereas the expression of political views is cheap, those opinions that are backed by hard cash deserve more notice”.
If our host is ever looking for a site motto, he could do a lot worse than that. I shall have to dust down my O level Latin.
130. alex
Sont forget that the Labour government changed the Buy to Let rules as well. This stoked up housig prices further, whilst locking out a whole generation from house ownership. Added to the collapse in social Mobility and it is not Hard to see how Labour might be locked out of power for a generation or longer…..
134. Clegg? don’t hold your breath!
QE
123. EiT. No. Britain started the recession with the largest deficit (flow) measure of government spending bar the US (amongst major nations. This is Brown’s fault. He fought the 2001 and 2005 elections by promising to keep increasing government spending. This turned out to be a mistake. On the latest OECD numbers the UK deficit in 2010 is projected at 14% of GDP. The US is at 11.2%, Japan at 8.7%, France at 7.9%, Germany at 6.2%.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/35/43117806.pdf
Table 4.4 page 252.
Or you can examine the deficit under various measures in the statistical annex from the prior OECD economic outlook. Again it shows that the UK was running persistent deficits from 2001-2005 when others were reining in spending. Yes the US and Japan were doing similar things, but the French and the Germans were not. Your argument is specious. Bad policy decisions are bad policy decisions, and the UK is the fault of Brown. Just as the US is the fault (mainly) of Bush.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/51/2483816.xls
It may be happening in “numerous” other countries, but it isnt happening to the same extent in lots of other countries like France and Germany. And the scale of the deterioration is far worse in the UK. Ergo Brown is a useless economic illiterate and Labour are incompetent.
One can draw a causative line from Brown’s profligacy in 2001-2007 and the problems today and compare and contrast to countries like France and Germany that cut back government spending.
Listening to her speech, I think Sarah Palin has given up. She put a positive spin on it but I think she is fed up with the cost ($0.5m) and time and energy of defending herself and her family. She enjoyed the limelight while it was fun but it isn’t any more and she’s had enough. Goodbye Sarah Palin.
137 Yeah. Clegg’s determination to hang on to equidistance in the face of the most loathed Labour Govt. since the start of loathing is just perverse. And the stubborn refusal of the LibDem poll rating to rise just confirms that.
Get in there, man, and put your foot on Labour’s windpipe! Your card will be marked if you don’t.
John Major telling it like it is. Most impressive.
Public is ready for some honesty I think. The debt hole we are in will not go away by being ignored. BIG cuts are inevitable. Which of today’s leaders has big enough balls to speak the truth?
Contrary to conventional wisdom, I think a message of cuts and austerity has votes in it, if done coherently and honestly, and with a stark explanation of the consequences of the alternative.
125. “Almost entirely source from Sub-Saharan Africans” - do you have any evidence for that?
125 - Gaz wrote If we had the same rules here, our hiv rates would be dramatically lower. Heterosexual transmission of hiv in the UK is almost entirely sourced from infected sub saharan africans.
Actually its 50%
The HPA estimates that 4% of black Africans in the UK are HIV-positive, and that almost 50% of new HIV diagnoses in 2006 were amongst this population.
Unlike you to lie on matters of race.
Her biggest asset is that she can say the loopiest things with a straight face, she is also helped in that a small, but vocal, group see her as a vessel that is empty enough for them to project their own views onto.
The right is turning on her now though in many instances (Reihan Salaam called her a ‘clownish vindictive amateur’), so she is left with suppport from assorted crazies and those too stubborn to admit their judgement was rubbish (step forward Kristol). You can’t get elected, abandon the job half way through and then be seen as reliable enough to be president. She just committed electoral suicide, therefore, so she either has to have given up any hopes or there is a health or other problem up and coming.
Now if there’s anyone out there who reacted positively to her *and* Brown they really should have pointy objects removed from their vicinity.
Martin Day @ 126 re big government.
Do not make the common mistake of assuming that all right wing parties are opposed to big government. For a recent counterexample, take the last American government under President Bush.
138. Ill-informed and contradictory tripe from Halligan, as usual.
146. John L
There is big Government and Big Government!
What Obama is proposing is mostly on top of what Bush left, fairly or unfairly the GOP may have increased Government in power but in opposition I should imagine the Big Government Card will be played. Some say the GOP lost last year partly because of the huge Bush Spending.
134. If I was Cameron the second thing I’d do, after tearing up the ID card legislation, is to get a Royal commission formed to determine the causes of the financial crisis. i.e. Superglue the blame to Labour and Gordon Brown.
At each future budget I’d literally spell out for all the thickos what fraction of debt, taxation and undesirable spending is down to Brown.
Every time someone says that X or Y is not looking good I’d be sure to blame Brown if appropriate.
If Labour think they will be able to shrug off the mess they have made they are mistaken.
“It’s not so much that she doesn’t have a clear ideology - she does, though whether it would ever be enough to win the White House is debatable, especially against Obama. It’s more that her delivery is awful.”
This is another issue; she has the veneer of competent communication but when you listen properly she is saying little by just keeping talking (it helps to hide her lack of knowledge too).
In its way its quite effective as it adds to support because people project their own beliefs onto hers. However, whilst it may be good for getting supporters it is not for keeping them long term.
149 Unfortunately Royal Commissions take a zillion years to report so it won’t help until the election after the next one!
If I were a Tory, I’d be coming up with some very good visuals to show the size of the debts and the problems we face.
All the tractor stats and technical language are the kiss of death to the average uninterested man in the street.
Something like credit cards - being refused at the checkout, cut in half, spoof bill with no credit left and the amount of interest due for the next payment…
I posted last night, but it’s a fine piece so I will do it again:
“Oh no. Not another one who wants to be in the West Wing”
By Andrew Rawnsley
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/05/david-cameron-west-wing
Its a blunder
Its for the money imho
Since we’re on a US Theme today (sort of), can any of our US Based PBers tell me if Ron Paul is likely to run again? He was very good for my bank balance last year.
So was SP, but I can’t believe I’m going to get that lucky again.
112.”What we need is a professional social work system that sees front line workers getting the managerial backing they need and a crack down on bad practice”
Ken, spot on.
Her biggest asset - UKPaul at 147 - is actually her appearance and abundant energy. She has sex appeal. As confirmed by such an unliklely source as Ian Hislop.
“…but the Florida GOP is saying tonight that Palin’s crowd broke state attendance records. At the very least, it outpaced the 15,000 President Bush drew to the retirement community four years ago.
To reiterate: An Alaska governor who was virtually unknown a month ago and is the number two on the presidential ticket may have doubled or tripled the crowd for a sitting president.”
Bush won Florida, McCain/Palin didn’t. One thing Bush and Rove knew is that you don’t win by enthusing a smaller number of people by a greater amount.
151. glw
I agree - Blame has to be be rammed against Brown and Labour so they cannot get out of it.
154, Read it.
Rawnsley is way off base on this. It’s his way of saying that he can’t get used to the idea of Cameron becoming PM.
“Jindal for VP on a Romney Ticket may be likely”
I agree with the current likelihood of Romney as candidate but not Jindal as VP, he’s like a coherent Palin and the coherence is just as likely to turn moderates off when they realise what he stands for.
One that I thought should have been VP last time was Ridge and he’d provide solidity to the ticket.
154 And isn’t it telling that we could never have a successful tv series here about how high-minded British politicians were trying to the good things?
I think Major was right on the button this morning on the honesty angle - lying and smearing about the terrible state of our public finances may frighten a few voters - but it won’t make them trust you.
Labour no longer have hostage voters with nowhere else to go - they either stay at home, vote BNP or take a giant leap to another mainstream party that may keep them for years ahead.
Not a great sticky vote winning strategy IMO.
ken@139, out of interest, what do you think would be the projected level of the UK’s deficit for 2010 if Cameron or Merkel had been running the UK since 2001 instead or Brown?
“158.Her biggest asset - UKPaul at 147 - is actually her appearance and abundant energy. She has sex appeal. As confirmed by such an unliklely source as Ian Hislop.”
Now there would be an interesting poll, voting patterns based on sex appeal. I wonder if anyone has ever tried to correlate the two.
up date on the number 10 petition for gordon brown to resign,still number one,now at sixty 68 thousand.
166,sorry about the word sixty.
161-Weathercock- I don’t see it this way. He warns that Cameron will have to be careful not do govern like Blair. But I believe he would have written this to any person who has a real chance of winning and whose actions seem to indicate that this person intends to govern with a “small group of politically motivated people”. Pretty much everyone nowadays!
133 - its not just going to make the life of the next government more dificult but its going to make the lives of the ordinaty people who live in this country more difficult.
Still Coldstone, its all ok if it makes the tories look bad eh??
David, I disagree with your article in one respect: the outright dismissal of her claim that her 2012 ambitions/”future plans” are incompatible with staying in post as Governor.
Were she Governor of any of the mainland states I’d have no problem with your contention that such a claim is absurd; but Alaska is so disconnected from the rest of mainland America that I don’t really see how anyone could continue being its Governor as well as laying the groundwork for a national bid. It would at the very least be utterly exhausting commuting that distance just to even get into mainland America before further criss-crossing the States. She could not do that and devote any serious time to her job in Alaska.
That’s especially true given that her base in the Republican Party is the deep south; just about as far from Alaska as it’s possible to get in the US and still be in the country.
She needs a base in continental America. The only position I can think of at the moment that gives her such a base without having to run for public office down there (virtually impossible for her) is to take on Michael Steele as Chair of the National Republican Committee. And given how incompetent and unpopular he is, I wouldn’t rule that out at his point.
“Labour vs the Conservatives: Spending cuts - the truth
As Gordon Brown and David Cameron argue over spending plans, Jane Merrick and Brian Brady examine the fine print and deliver their verdicts”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-vs-the-conservatives-spending-cuts–the-truth-1732191.html
161.The Rawnsley article is interesting, and he does raise some valid concerns as well. Cameron and Osborne would do well to take note.
But there is a very sour note running throughout the article, he sounds like a journalist who once enjoyed a very close inside view of the New Labour machine. But its like he now finds himself standing outside looking in the window onto the Conservative operation. Hence the jaded digs at Montgomery and Nelson, I wonder how much he resembled their enthusiasm for New Labour back in the late 90’s?
This is going to be a problem for some of the Guardian commentators if the Conservatives win the next GE. How often have we found ourselves turning to Rawnsley or Ashley to get that inside view of what is happening in the Blair/Brown administration’s? Rawnsley’s ‘Servants of the People’ was a must read book, but I don’t ever get the feeling that Ashley writes about the Conservatives from an inside angle, its more of a Labour view from the outside.
But just as there is a power shift going on between the main parties, the same will happen in the Political Lobby too. Going to be fascinating to watch.
172 I’d be interested to know how many journalists the Guardian will be able to employ once their monopoly on public sector jobs goes elsewhere…
171 I see quietzapple has been busy in the comments
174-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5748956/Gordon-Brown-under-new-pressure-over-public-finances.html
“Mr Hutton said: “I think fundamentally people know their belts need to be tightened and I think the discipline and responsibility of politicians is to be clear about what they are going to prioritise - is it health, is it education, is it schools is it defence?”
He added: “There’s going to be a very important debate in the next few months about that. Politicians have to got to lead that debate and be clear with people.”
“The country expects honesty about this. They know that things are going to be tight in the next few years.”
Another Nokia bites the dust
“Osborne’s crazy admission”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3744923/osbornes-crazy-admission.thtml
“More blows against Brown’s spending narrative”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3745023/more-blows-against-browns-spending-narrative.thtml
173.Absolutely. But just as there is a need for change at No10, I think we need to blow the cobwebs away and overhaul the Political Lobby too. Reading the Rawnsley article, and taking note of the warnings to not repeat the same mistakes of the Blair/Brown years. I wonder which journalist will be brave enough to write the critique of the mistakes made by the Political Lobby in the last 15 years?
Many were too close to the project, they allowed themselves to be manipulated, and and all too eagerly ran all those carefully crafted briefings against other Labour politicians and the opposition. They didn’t scrutinize or hold the government to account for far too long. And I find the idea that they allowed themselves to fall in line rather than be threatened with being left out of the loop risible. That is the time for good investigative journalists to shine.
We had a government with a majority that was far too big for the country’s own good, but while we can blame the poor quality of the Conservative opposition for their continued GE success with big majorities, and in spite of some appalling mistakes. The political lobby should hang their heads in shame at the blithe way the government got away with some of their bigger lies on the figures, and the attacks on the Conservatives financial ‘black holes’.
This economic disaster didn’t happen overnight, the cocktail of debt was being planned and mixed from as far back as 2003. Even last year the media were allowing that myth to go unchallenged on both sides of the house. And no, Vince Cable was not the only person who saw it coming earlier!
I want to see a robust and hungry media holding a Conservative government to account every day they hold power, it will mean smaller majorities and more accountability, but it will make them a better government in the longer run.
176 How long before Brown is forced to come out with the line of
“as I have been saying for a long time, Labour is the only party which will implement honest cuts in services which have least detriment to hard working families and ensure that British jobs for Britsh workers are unaffected - unlike the
do nothingcut everything Tories…177 And how much time does Osborne spend on constituents’ problems in the remaining 60%? Must take up some of his time….
Nick Clegg has let another one out about his alliance with Labour:
http://tinyurl.com/lqxjo4
“George Osborne is 100pc focused on winning”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100002142/george-osborne-is-100pc-focused-on-winning/
164. EiT. I’d guess anywhere between 3 and 6% of GDP lower. Entitlements (tax credits, etc) would have grown more slowly and would not be growing at the same rate now and there would have been less capital spending in the boom years. There would not have been the same spending on the NHS or education, although it would still have grown at a very fast clip.
While this would have taken a bit off growth in the past, it wouldnt translate 1 for 1 as government spending is based on tax and private sector spending would have risen.
179 Me too, large majorities remind me of revenge carpet-bombing.
They are hugely satisfying for a day or two.
In my heart I want Labour to get a 1997-esque pounding (and I voted for them) - and a record breaking majority to go with it.
In my head, I want say 50ish. Enough to make big changes viable but not the remit of a one-party state.
I would be delighted if the LDs got their act together as well - to be bumping along with such crap polling returns despite all the crap Labour are in, makes me seriously question what Clegg is up to.
We need HMG to be held to account - and for Parliament to get back in control of scrutinising legislation rather than the lobby-fodder they have become.
182 - “blown their final raspberry” ?
Raspberries are what they used to be….
I blame foreign imports!
186 — raspberries have been very poor this year. I’ve often had to forgo my daily punnet.
186. SimonStClare
I know - It Stinks!
Osborne spends 40% of his time on economics?
So following his mortgage claim logic he spends 65% of his time on other things.
That Herald article about Fraser Nelson is now one of their most viewed.
If you haven’t seen it - well worth a the time
http://www.sundayherald.com/mostpopular.var.2518234.mostviewed.damned_lies_and_statistics.php
181.MM, yet another sign that he is not going to be another Gordon Brown… Osborne seems much more relaxed about putting the right people into the jobs at the Treasury, rather than filling it with his most loyal lieutenants in a secretive inner cabal that even locks out the Civil service.
Do you have to breathe, eat and sleep the figures as Brown did, to come up with the right solutions to the problems in hand?
Or would we have been better served with a more rounded politician who was more apart of the bigger team, instead of concentrating on building his own power base in the Treasury to rival next door?
I think that Osborne has built up a good team around him, and he is more able to delegate, listen to advice, and then take it on board.
Should that be seen as a positive rather than a negative?
Who briefed that little story to Rawnsley, they still don’t seem to be able to define Osborne as his own man, and a politician that is very different to Brown. Rawnsley is predicting big rows to develop between Cameron and Osborne, he should have remembered how and why the decision was reached that saw Cameron run for the Tory leadership instead of Osborne. I often wonder how Brown had the time to sleep with running the Treasury, fighting constantly with Blair and briefing against other colleagues he saw as a threat.
But I doubt that Cameron will be reduced to begging Osborne for a clue about the contents of the budget at a Cabinet meeting.
187 In the Weald, most of our cherries, plums and other soft fruit have been zapped by the deep cold earlier this year.
I don’t know anyone with a good crop - my cherry trees barely have a leaf on them either.
185.”We need HMG to be held to account - and for Parliament to get back in control of scrutinising legislation rather than the lobby-fodder they have become.”
Plato, we are singing from the same hymn sheet on this. I want good government not spin, and we need to see Parliament made relevant again.
ken@184: OK, so if you’re right (and the government had been running sizable surpluses rather than - say - being tempted to cut taxes) we’d be looking at a deficit of 8% to 11% for 2010 as opposed to 14%. So still some big old tax increases or spending cuts, but not as bad.
191. ChristinaD
Yes the whole dynamic of the Cameron/Osborne thing is completly different to Blair/Brown.
For starters Osborne can hardly described as a primadonna who thinks he should be leader like Brown did now and assuming they are elected!
I find it very lazy how Journo’s try transposing one time period and leadership of a party onto an other. All Cabinets have quirks, positives and negatives within them. If you look back to each period of office the strains and the competitive egos have materialised from different places. Many have made out Mandelson to be a Hezza like figure in this government compared to the Major Government but i think that is a mistake.
The Cabinet in terms of personalities is dominated by Brown and Mandelson. The rest of them if they are not Peers are third rate nobodies i.e. Bob Ainsworth. Majors government had much more substantial figures init even towards the end such as Ken Clarke, Michael Howard, Portillo et al*. * Hague was not a substantial figure until after the GE in my opinion.
192.”I don’t know anyone with a good crop - my cherry trees barely have a leaf on them either.”
So its not that I am just a lousy gardener then? My fruit trees are not doing well this year. Phew.
186 Well I am having a bumper year for fruit. The rasberries came late but in abundance. The apples in particular are more numerous.Pears are OK.The gooseberry plants have a good crop for the first time in a couple of years
However the huge success, after many years of nothing, and then only a tiny crop last year, have been the grapes - its absolutely heaving. Just wish I could remember what I did that was different this year….
194. EiT. No, my assumptions are that the government would have given in to temptation and spent, with a small surplus of 1%ish at peak and smaller deficits in down years. But the boom would have been less and thus tax revenues slightly lower. Counter-factuals are difficult. Anyway, Brown is a root cause of the problems in the UK.
From the Spectator.
Of course, it’s no secret that Osborne has other responsibilities within his party. But for him to push this “40 percent” line during an economic crisis is utterly bizarre, and will just fuel chatter that he’d be better off elsewhere in the Tory operation. You can expect Downing Street to seize on this with glee.
That may explain Osbornes bizarre economic forecasts (”we are heading for the worlds worst recession”) and the money that has been going on Philip Hammond over the last few weeks.
146. I need to pick you up here, i am not lying, and your statistics arent lies either, this country has been very fortunate with hiv and aids, in the sense that is had not got into the mainstream heterosexual groups, ie it was prevalent in groups that were high risk, such as homosexuals, drug users and people who use prostitutes. That has changed, and largely as a result of a large import of sexually active heterosexual infected people, almost entirely from sub saharan africa, where hiv and aids *is* mainstream.
They are multiple papers out there, google them, that explain what has happened in this country.
195 I would struggle to name anyone on the front bench who I would describe as a big-hitter these days.
Labour are so tired and out of ideas that a long period of reflection about what they stand for could only be good for their long term survival.
I’ve never thought of Osborne as some PM wannabe and have picked up no inkling that there is some hidden faction to challenge Cameron’s strategy other than the Old Guard (who IMO are self-destructing dinosaurs).
I come back to my point about the LDs - if Paddy was in charge, would they be so far behind?
I can’t believe that Clegg is making no hay despite all the ammo and open goals he’s got [forgive the multiple mixed metaphors!].
200 - You wrote If we had the same rules here, our hiv rates would be dramatically lower. Heterosexual transmission of hiv in the UK is almost entirely sourced from infected sub saharan africans.
And have been asked to provide evidence to back up that claim.
Go ahead.
145. Socrates:
ten seconds of googling:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.com/briefingPaper/document/46
It is one of those ‘known facts’ that those in the health protection agencies try to be very diplomatic about, but are very aware of. Some have actually spoken out about it.
197 Down here the harsh and unseasonable weather killed off all early flowering crops - my apple orchard will be packed though as they’re all late varieties.
Unfortunately, apples give me terrible indigestion so will turn them into cider instead of crumble
204 – That’s odd, my soft fruit trees have done rather well this year, and the bows are already creaking under the weight of plums. This morning I picked a pound of wild strawberries from the garden, each no bigger than a thumb nail. Pavlova for pud tonight.
146: Since you quote the health protection agency, this, i cannot resist. I demand an apology for your smear.
http://www.positivenation.co.uk/issue120/regulars/news/news120.htm
“African community HIV organisations must do more outreach work to increase
uptake of HIV tests, according to the Health Protection Agency (HPA). In
2004, 90 per cent of all heterosexually acquired HIV in Britain was found in
people from sub-Saharan Africa, amounting to 3,136 new cases.The report
highlights the disproportionately large numbers of Africans who remain
undiagnosed”
Here is another cite, with slightly less dramatic figures (I think the above
wrongly misinterpreted the statistics, and though very high, not 90%), from
the Health Protection Agency:
I think you really need to read this statement carefully from the health
protection agency, a government organisation responsible for mapping the
changes in diseases, dated november 2005:
“During 2004, 7275 new HIV diagnoses were reported in the UK –- this
compares to 7217 diagnoses in 2003. The majority of cases (4287) were
diagnosed in heterosexual men and women, 73% of which were likely to have
been acquired in Africa. “
I think Palin could still be the Howard Dean of the 2012 GOP primary. Romney is now the GOP Kerry, almost certain to win the nomination, but just as certain to lose in the general. Huckabee is probably the GOP Edwards and the best-long term bet who will give Romney a run for his money and then try again in 2016 when he will probably win (unlike Edwards I can’t see him as an adulterer). If he does manage to narrowly defeat Biden in 8 years time I can’t see him lasting more than one term though and he would probably be akin to a Republican Carter. I think in the very long-term the best prospect for the GOP is George P Bush in about 20 years, he is half hispanic, reasonably moderate by GOP standards and has the chance to finally produce a Bush presidency which can be seen as a success. By the time he is a serious contendor the toxic legacy of W will also be a distant legacy!
Tim
After the GDP figures released last week do you still think that Darling has been ‘proved right’?
192 Our cherry tree had the finest crop in the 12 years we have been here - although a constant battle with the blackbirds to get them off the tree first!
183.Benedict Brogan - “The same goes for George Osborne, who is getting stick today for an anecdote in the same column that had him telling City folk “40pc of my time is spent on economics”. Put aside the second or third-hand aspect of this tale, it will be used against the Shadow Chancellor by those who either resent his influence or doubt his economics, or both. Yet it should be remembered that Mr Osborne is influential precisely because he is, and has been for a long time, 100pc focused on winning.”
Me, sums it up nicely. Osborne has often got the biggest verbal bashing on Conhom over the years, and yet they have continually been too dismissive of this fact. Makes you understand why we languished at less than 200 MP’s for so long.
195.”I find it very lazy how Journo’s try transposing one time period and leadership of a party onto an other. All Cabinets have quirks, positives and negatives within them. If you look back to each period of office the strains and the competitive egos have materialised from different places. Many have made out Mandelson to be a Hezza like figure in this government compared to the Major Government but i think that is a mistake.”
MartinD, totally agree with you on this. Although I did laugh when Major pointed out that any comparisons between him and Brown, flattered Brown.
204. I think the harsh winter helped my trees. The apples are better than ever, plums in abundance, cherries were disappointing but better than last year, berries of all types doing nicely, grapes looking very good.
204 I got mashed by the -10C freak frosts as did my neighbours within 10 miles.
I even dug up my tree fern in the pitch dark as the thermometer fell to -9C at 7pm and had it in the downstairs loo for a month - it is only now starting to sprout new leaves many months on.
We’re used to very dry/very wet clay ground here [either like Death Valley or flooded] but not for the cold.
189 Tim’s cognisance of truth in his postings have increased in line with public spending ( by 0%) and objectivity in line with GDP
Osborne is saying some sensible things about economic policy. Remarkably enough, they sound just like Gordon in the day.
Osborne speech to the ABI June 9th 2009.
“The solution to this systemic problem is not to go back to the bad old days of picking winners or national champions.
Nor should we ever abandon the huge benefits of vibrant competition and free trade that have helped to liberate our economy over the last thirty years.
But Britain should be taking a longer term and more strategic attitude to investment in infrastructure, skills and new technologies.”
Gordon Brown speech to CBI November 2000
“If we cannot secure that growth in productivity we lose out in the race for global investment.
We all know the prize from productivity growth:
for companies, the opportunity for greater growth and opportunity for greater profits;
for individuals, rising living standards;
for the country, higher levels of growth and employment for all.
So, our aim for this decade should be to achieve the fastest rise in productivity of competitor countries.
So what is the best way forward?
Because productivity growth will come principally by managers and workforces addressing the obstacles to growth, the best thing Government can do in many areas is get out of the way. But there is a vital role for Government in the global market place: ensuring stability, a competitive environment and an infrastructure that provides opportunity for all.
Because it is the Government’s duty to end the under-investment of recent decades and invest in Britain’s future we are doubling transport investment, investing with the private sector 180 billion pounds in our ten year transport plan.”
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_126_00.htm
Gord had the right aims but somewhere along the way he lost the plot.
212.No cherries this year or last. We have had two consecutive years of a late and nasty frosts.
Plato - cider making - thats a good idea. We have some old trees with very bitter apples, too bitter for the kids to eat, and too many for me. Each autumn I ponder what the hell to do with them and invariably most end up ploughed back in.
Its 3 oclock folks, so naturally its time for Garners Question Time….
206 - Gaz.
Perhaps if you used more more precise language than “almost entirely” then you wouldn’ get picked up.
“largely” or “more than half” would be more accurate and less deliberately inflammatory.
Make that Gardners Question Time - the “d” went awol
214. Osborne speech link
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2009/06/George_Osborne_A_New_British_Economic_Model.aspx
214.”Gord had the right aims but somewhere along the way he lost the plot.”
Quite simple, the lack of trust in others, the need to control everything from an inner cabal, the inability to take responsibility for any bad news. And most importantly, personal ambitions to succeed Tony Blair at some point overrode all other economic considerations.
The timing of some of his most ill considered decisions speaks volumes, he set up the system that failed so spectacularly, and part of that goes to the heart of the man as politician. He didn’t want to be held under the stick for interest rate decisions, so he gave that power over to the BoE, but packed it full of his own choices to try and hold onto an arms length control.
He also didn’t want to cede to much power to the BoE, so he took away their powers to be the Banking watch dog, one that might have made better decisions when it mattered. He was Chancellor for far too long, and he became too powerful. Its the biggest mistake that Blair made apart from Iraq. When did Blair or the other Cabinet members ever get the chance to really scrutinize what he was doing? They all just basked in the glow of the headlines.
217. How about ‘overwhelming majority’???
I am not here to be polite, and if i want to use inflammatory language i will. You accused me of telling lies. I didnt. I dont suffer from post colonial guilt, i dont have a need to pussy foot around issues around immigration. Sometimes frankness is necessary.
217. How about ‘overwhelming majority’???
I am not here to be polite, and if i want to use inflammatory language i will. You accused me of telling lies. I didnt. I dont suffer from post colonial guilt, i dont have a need to pu$sy foot around issues around immigration. Sometimes frankness is necessary.
I was very happy with this morning’s TV.
Miliband, Major and Darling were all excellent interviews.
It’s a reminder of what politics should be like.
220. ChristinaD. The November 2000 speech to the CBI is interesting - Gord talks about the need to get productivity improvements from the public sector. He talks about stability.
I agree that he made mistakes with the rate setting at the BoE, although to be fair almost no one pointed out the core error - inflation targets that allowed monetary policy to be too loose when China producted deflation, meaning we got asset price inflation as the economy overheated.
I think one big problem is that Gord didnt understand that you cannot mandate productivity changes - they have to be produced gradually and through systematic change. Instead New Labour went for targets and ever more targets. They were in a rush - Gord suddenly found tax revenues were buoyant and he spent them combined with his centralising target culture in an effort to spend his way to the top. He was encouraged by the Whitehall bureaucracy, who love targets and the bureacracy that goes with them.
222 Where was Darling? I watch Sky News via Film-On and it has lost its streaming deal with Sky/BBC as far as I can see.
I thought Miliband was very credible and his ideas were sound - TBH it was the stuff he should have been saying last time, still it’s never the wrong time to say the right thing.
221 - But given you have form on matters medical and relating to religion and/or immigration, I think it is fair to ask you to be precise.
Was Darling on Andrew Marr or something else this morning?
224 Plato
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/video/Chancellor-Alistair-Darling-On-Reform-Of-Banking-Sector/Video/200907115329550?lpos=Latest+Video_6&lid=VIDEO_1958414_Darling+On+UK+Banking+Reform&videoCategory=Latest+Video
226 HelloThere
See the long link at 227
Oh dear.
“The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) is to investigate the circumstances surrounding the demise of Birmingham-based carmaker MG Rover in 2005.
BBC business editor Robert Peston says Business Secretary Lord Mandelson will issue a brief written statement on Monday confirming the move.
It follows a four-year inquiry into the collapse, which led to 6,000 job cuts.
The four executives in control of MG Rover at the time said there was “no suggestion of improper conduct”.
A spokesman for the MG Rover directors said: “The directors have at all times willingly accounted for their actions, which kept MG Rover alive for five years.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8134981.stm
3pm - sky news going large with need for spending cuts, according to Darling may need to be public sector pay freeze, they interview Vince Cable who says, yes cuts are necessary.
The beeb? (news 24)
doesn’t warrant a mention.
228 Thanks wibbler
229. Interesting that Peston has his “Crystal Ball” out again!
I once e-mailed Peston to say he had missed something, so he e-mailed back saying he published the relevant article a 5-10 hours ago!
He even gave me the link! - I thought it amusing! 
39 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — One of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s potential presidential rivals says her abrupt resignation won’t allow her to dodge scrutiny over her family.
And George W. Bush’s former chief political aide says Palin’s strategy is unclear, at best.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Sunday that Palin’s announcement that she is resigned while still in her first term doesn’t make sense in a conventional political setting.
Bush’s political adviser Karl Rove says Palin has engaged in a “risky strategy.”
Huckabee, who ran for president in 2008, says he isn’t sure if he’ll run in 2012. He does say that Palin remains a viable candidate despite her decision to quit the governor’s office.
Huckabee and Rove appeared on “Fox News Sunday.”
225 - anyone else see the irony in tim asking another poster to be precise??
priceless
227 Wibbler - Many thanks for the link - that final question about the reshuffle was a killer.
Anyone got an idea why Darling has now broken cover? I know the press have been taking the pee about his AWOL status, but I can’t spot another reason why he has now..
229 - some are claimimg Labour need to put off publishing report as it does not relect well on them.
As if they would be so cynical
234. Especially when that other poster (me) was in essence correct.
236 - as a follow up
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article6638456.ece
“Last night senior motor industry executives familiar with the Rover collapse said the government might not want the report made public, citing ministers’ public support for the Phoenix Four when they bought the company, and the government’s ill-fated interventions late on in an attempt to keep the company afloat. A £6m state loan was advanced to Rover while a fruitless effort to resurrect a deal with Chinese company was made.”
““Four years on, any suggestion another further investigation is frankly ridiculous and smacks of kicking this issue into the long grass.
“If the government has been so concerned to get to the heart of the matter why has it flatly refused more than 30 requests under the Freedom of Information Act which would have revealed correspondence and documents the directors believe would have shed some light on the government’s role in the affair?”
Mon Andy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
223.Ken, your last paragraph neatly sums it up. The target culture, but not the underlying systemic change and reform that was required. To be fair to Blair, he wanted it to happen, but Brown fought him all the way. Gordon Brown was a man of two faces, the one he sold to the public as a Chancellor, and the one he sold to the Labour membership and the Unions. At the end of the day, the electorate were not going to give him a coranation as leader of his party and PM before a GE.
238.”“If the government has been so concerned to get to the heart of the matter why has it flatly refused more than 30 requests under the Freedom of Information Act which would have revealed correspondence and documents the directors believe would have shed some light on the government’s role in the affair?””
Floater, remember the timing of all this… It can lead to desperate measures being undertaken.
I made a good batch of cherry jam at my house in Hungary the week before last. The plums will be ready soon too.
234
I do!
John L asked earlier whether Oliver Stone’s W was worth going to see. The answer is yes.
237 Gaz, if only you’d said “majority”…
197. John: Just wish I could remember what I did that was different this year….
Most of the plants you mentioned need a good period of cold weather and frosts to propitiate growth and/or fruits.
This we had in good quantity this year, unlike 2007/8.
Perhaps if you used more more precise language than “almost entirely” then you wouldn’ get picked up.
“largely” or “more than half” would be more accurate and less deliberately inflammatory.
by tim July 5th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Is that the definition of the word “squirm”
Test
233. Tim suddenly loves taking quote from Huckabee and Rove?
Dont make me laugh!
:lol: 
:lol:
245 - Stats update.
George Osbornes time is spent “almost entirely” on matters of strategy.
250, good, that’s nice to hear.
250 - Further stats update.
Almost entirely a majority of PBers think you’re a massive tool.
250 Personally I don’t see the problem. He hasn’t actually got an economy to run, you know. And they have other people to contribute to economic policy (like Philip Hammond, and no doubt loads of backroom wonks). You measure outputs, not inputs. If Gordon worked half as hard I’m sure we’d be much better off!
WHEN IS THE NEXT POLL DUE?
OR HAVE THEY ALL DIED OF HEATSTROKE?
250 Could that be why Labour hate Osborne so much? And invest so much of their limited resources in trying to trash him?
Perhaps if Labour spent some time on strategy themselves…like, you know, in the running of the country…
244 re W — thanks, Richard (Original). The DVD is now less than a tenner, so I shall do my bit for economic revival.
254 If they will insist on employing naturists (the effects of climate change on the poller bare…?)
254 - I think we’ll probably get a few polls relating to Norwich North.
257 - how else will they generate big swings?
So much for Roddick being the master of the tie-break…
257 - With the naturists, Will the numbers be considered soft or hard?
252 “Almost entirely a majority of PBers think you’re a massive tool”
Don’t wish to be a pedant, but could you define the term ‘Tool’ please.
I’d hate to think it could be misconstrued as anything useful.
I have in inkling that the late summer and autumn economic readings for the UK will prove pretty catastophic.
Therefore can we expect a sudden pre-conference GE?
262 - it’s the tool an onanist would use…
255 - It was the Spectator that were trashing him over his time spent on economics.
Although if he spends 60% of time on strategy, yet thinks its good strategy to claim he spends 40% on time on economics then perhaps he needs to increase the percentage of his time spent on strategy.
262, Of course Simon, Massive Tool is rhymin’ slang for fool.
More Iranian patterns.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8134904.stm
264 - A word derived from Onan, spawn of Judah…. Most apt.
oh dear, poor tim, there he was blithely sliming his way through the thread as usual and then it all went tragically wrong and he is a laughing stock again. It must be distressing to have lost your touch so badly. I wonder if he has been rewarded for all his hard work by a meeting with the Great leader which has cursed him for ever more.
265 - you’re making the standard Labour mistake of confusing tactics and strategy.
268 - “spawn of Judah”
Did you learn that in anti Bercow class.
268 - Thanks - who knew there would be an etymologist on here
271. That is a smear, you know where the naughty step is.
271 - Tim, your failing is that you judge all others by your own low standards, Oh and lying of course.
271 - to give Tim the benefit of the doubt, it could just be a nasty, mean spirited and spiteful comment….
271 Or perhaps in preparing Labour’s Fagin/Flying Pig posters against Howard in the 2005 election?
Five setter!
275
Tim has only toned it of late down because he needed to whilst his thread was posted. One should always remember that leopards don’t change their spots.
278 - you’re right. Silly me…
Roddick and Federer equally matched on score 3:3, nail biting time for those with bets on.
This may be solipsistic of me, but I’m starting to wonder if I’ve done a Gordon on Federer by backing him.
275 = looooooooooool
This thread has gone rather stale. Time for something fresh, chaps!
O/T joke - not original but I liked it…
At last Gordon Brown decided to throw the towel in and resign.
His cabinet colleagues decided it would be a worthy gesture to name a railway locomotive after him. So a senior ‘Sir Humphrey’ went from Whitehall to the National Railway Museum at York, to investigate the possibilities..
“They have a number of locomotives at the NRM without names,” a
specially-sought consultant told the top civil servant. “Mostly freight locomotives though.”
“Oh dear, that’s not very fitting for a prime minister”, said Sir
Humphrey. “How about that big green one, over there?” he said, pointing to 4472.
“That’s already got a name” said the consultant. It’s called ‘Flying Scotsman.”
“Oh. Couldn’t it be renamed?” asked Sir Humphrey. “This is a national museum after all, funded by the taxpayer.”
“I suppose it might be considered” said the consultant. “After all the LNER renamed a number of their locomotives after directors of the company, and even renamed one of them Dwight D Eisenhower.”
“That’s excellent”, said Sir Humphrey, “So that’s settled then…. let’s look at renaming 4472. But how much will it cost? We can’t spend too much, given the expenses scandal”
“Well,” said the consultant, “We could always just paint out the
‘F’…..”
284
You owe PB £1 I posted that on Friday!
another 2 soldiers dead in Afghanistan, we expect a huge amount from our armed forces and yet……
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197529/21st-23-Defence-Secretary-s-Cabinet-rank-lowest-history-prompting-Armed-Forces-anger.html
MTF
busted!
Mike S. can name the charity for the £1 when he gets back off holiday ….
.. but it’s still a good joke…
Federer saves two break points… 9-8
386.Very sad and tragic news indeed. Its already disappearing down the news order at the Beeb. That brings the total of fatal casualties in both combat and in training exercises to six this week. The jump in fatalities over the last year is truly frightening, and it warrants a higher media profile and some serious debate.
New thread