How valid are ConHome’s polls?
September 5th, 2009
Shouldn’t they be joining the British Polling Council?
It’s become almost a regular occurrence. ConservativeHome (or ContinuityIDS as we used to call it) carries out a survey and up pops Tim Montgomerie to talk as though he is the official voice of the party’s grass-roots.
But how much attention should we give to his polling? Are samples, for instance, weighted in line with the known demographics of the audience he is testing? What weightings are used? What is the precise wording of the questions and in what order were they put. All of this is what we have come to expect from the mainstream pollsters so why should ConHome be any different?
At the end of the day is ConHome, as it is increasingly presenting itself a pollster? If so should not it be following the industry standard transparency that we’ve become accustomed to since the establishment of the British Polling Council in 2004.
The site is not listed as a BPC member. Surely the time has come for it to take such a step if it wants its surveys to be taken seriously.
Otherwise shouldn’t we be dismissing each new finding as just another voodoo survey?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes.
Err, the yes is in response to
Monty has got some article somewhere on ConHom where he explains how his polls really are the voice of the grassroots.
Total rubbish of course, as is his claim that his website is the mainstream of the party. The man’s detrimental to the Conservative cause, and really his only interest is his own career.
The sad thing is that the media report these polls as if they were valid… thereby giving them a prominence they don’t deserve.
It’s a meaningless poll.
We asked 100 cats which chocolate they would prefer if they lived in Newcaastle.
The results are very bad for Kit-Kat
Kit-Kat 2%
Shut up, there’s a mouse under that bush I am stalking 90%
I fancy that cat with the scar on his face, I’d love to get mashed on catnip with him and go at it like rabbits 8%
These people are probably not all Tories, probably not all different people and don’t live in the constituency and the results are not weighted.
Astroturfers produce Astroturf result.
Not very.
The site represents a subsection of one political party. Unless they use proper polling methods the results are worthless.
4 It’s the one thing he is truly good at-PR for his own website and career.
Voodoo polls throughout…..
Mike, I agree, its all so predictable. Take the supposed instant test of opinion/mood on a particular issue or politician/politicians. Doesn’t the poll result often become rather self fulfilling after the particular slant ConHom’s coverage has taken?
I have complained in the threads before about the slant of the questions, and the options on offer in these surveys. You sometimes feel you are being led by the nose.
FPT tim
Here is the link to a face page of one “Liga Howells”. The photo definitely proves she is a looker.
http://www.facebook.com/liga.howells
Happy hunting
I sometimes take part in ConHome polls. I’m not a party member and I always state that I’m not at the appropriate question. I’m merely a Conservative voter (mostly).
So do people like me get stripped out of the final tally or are we included in the reported figures?
I do Tims survey every month.
a) It’s a pure voodoo poll, a totally self-selected sample
b) all the questions are totally loaded towards Tims own agenda
Doesn’t stop me doing them though.Its the media who are to blame for idly publishing his conclusions.
Judging by some of the frequent posters on conhome, I’d hate to think that the people who vote on conhome make up the tory party at large.
I love his “and” theory, where he attempts to claim that Conservatism works best when it is broad as well as deep.
Unfortunately, he criticises any part of the Conservative platform that doesn’t fit within his particular ideological view. Less deep as, well, shallow.
Is this a poll of Conservative Home’s readers? They have to be pretty much Farage’s dream demographic in his fight against Bercow. If Farage’s only getting 65% of them, despite ConHome’s slant, Mike’s going to lose his Buckingham bets…
It’s not a valid poll but it’s interesting all the same.
If Cameron gives the Buckingham Tory electorate a subtle steer, then Bercow’s out on his ear.
12. Marcus Wood. How do you read the Bercow v Farage contest?
O/T. Anyone know why David Dimbleby is not quoted amongst the runners and riders to host the first Leaders Election Debate? Has he ruled himself out?
16 - “A subtle steer”. I would imagine that Cameron will want Bercow to win comfortably.
15.I think that the Conhom coverage given over to Farage’s attempt to unseat Bercow will help the incumbent in the longer term.
Ex-pat on the subject of your post on the thread before I think you should read the latest news before being so arrogant.
Con Coughlin has the nits dilemna described perfectly and as a world-renowned expert on the Middle East and Islamic terrorism he knows what he is speaking about. You on the other hand.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100008355/now-even-the-scots-are-in-revolt-over-releasing-the-lockerbie-bomber/
Now even the Scots are in revolt over releasing the Lockerbie bomber
By Con Coughlin Politics Last updated: September 3rd, 2009
24 Comments Comment on this article
The vote by the Scottish parliament condemning the decision to release the Lockerbie bomber heaps yet further humiliation on the administration of SNP leader Alex Salmond.
One of the less edifying aspects of this shabby affair was Mr Salmond’s attempts to persuade us that the majority of Scots supported the bomber’s release. I was sceptical of thiis claim at the time - I don’t recall the villagers of Lockerbie flying the Libyan flag in celebration, as the Libyans did the saltire in Tripoli. And now their parliament has said what they really think - that it was wrong to release the Libyan mass murderer on compassionate grounds.
The fact that ordinary Scots share the widespread view that he should have remained in his Scottish prison cell until proven innocent - he dropped his appeal to earn his early release - goes some way to mitigate the international hostily the decision has attracted, particularly in America. It shows Mr Salmond’s administration was acting in what they believed were their own interests, not those of the Scottish people, and it is they who should bear the brunt of the criticism.
What? Horsey is now banned from posting on pb?
I have always thought the Conhome polls were more in the nature of a straw poll, a snapshot at the time. Take for instance when they had a go at Alan Duncan, he has mostly been very popular on those polls but has died a death now - if he manages to survive he will be up again. I don’t think anyone on Conhome pretends they are scientific just ‘what do you think of this today’ What I am trying to say is that these polls are not generally about long held beliefs which I think you rather expect in professional polls. There is a difference between the two and hey our OGH has from time to time used quick polls for us to tick on a particular subject.
19.I think that Cameron will be hoping that ConHom goes on to do what it does best when it comes to the Farage vs Bercow coverage.
I think it just gives Tim Montgomerie an excuse to pop up. Most of the findings don’t seem to chime with the impression a well worn activist gets from keeping his mouth shut and ears open.
19. I would imagine that Cameron will want Bercow to win comfortably.
He certainly will, even just from the point of view of parliamentary arithmetic. If Bercow loses, the Tory majority (assuming there is one) will be cut by two.
I’ll stick my neck out - Farage might get a seemingly respectable 30-35% in an essentially two-horse race, but he hasn’t got a prayer of actually winning. I’d imagine most Buckingham constituents are quite proud of the fact Bercow is the Speaker.
“hey our OGH has from time to time used quick polls for us to tick on a particular subject.”
He’s never portrayed them as anything other than “PB readers opinions” though. That’s a far cry from “this poll is what the Tory Grassroots, all couple of hundred thousand of them, think.”
This is a self selectorate poll and Montgomery is trying to pull a fast one yet again when he claims it is a poll of Tory members.
Perhaps he would like to come on here an justify his claim that it is a poll solely of current Tory party members?
Bet he doesn’t though. Because he can’t. And I am sure that he can’t give any assurance on the general methodology either.
This is beyond voodoo.
Why do Sky and the BBC fall for it every time and hype it as a real measure of Tory grassroots opinion? They make themselves look silly. In fact why do they give Montgomery air time anyway?
Don’t really see what relevance the views of the “Tory Grassroots” have got to predicting the Buckingham electorate anyway.
Gwendolyn@23, nothing wrong with sites doing straw polls and things on their sites to give you an idea what their readers think.
The problem is that the way Montgomerie isn’t presenting it like that. He doesn’t need to join the British Polling Council, but he does need to be honest and up-front about the kind of poll he’s doing - at least if he doesn’t want people to think he’s an untrustworthy git.
A fair post. But does anyone regard the findings as implausible? We know that loads of Conservative members vote UKIP in European elections (there’s no point denying it) so why shouldn’t the same people support UKIP in the absence of a Conservative candidate? In fact, it’s the logical thing to do.
WRT UKIP’s supporters generally, mostly they’re Conservatives in the Euros, or ex-Conservatives (a fair smaller group) at Parliamentary level; but my impression from the Euros, Counties, and Norwich North is that they took more votes from Labour this time than they did five years ago.
21. Con Coughlin has the nits dilemna described perfectly and as a world-renowned expert on the Middle East and Islamic terrorism he knows what he is speaking about.
I know next to nothing about Coughlin, but one thing that is abundantly clear from that article is that he certainly isn’t an expert on Scottish parliamentary arithmetic, or on the nature of minority government in general. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Tories voting against the SNP = Alex Salmond humiliated? Hmmm. For ‘humiliation’ I’d have been looking rather more for a rebellion in the SNP ranks.
As far as I can see the general reaction to the Holyrood vote last week has been a vague shrug of the shoulders. The salient point - as Brian Taylor helpfully reminded his viewers on a regular basis - was that “this falls short of a confidence vote”.
Scotland score. It’s not the despair that gets you, it’s the hope…
If Montgomerie’s voodoo poll achieves anything worthwhile - beyond clever site promotion - it will be to encourage the MSM to test the Buckingham waters by commissioning a pukka poll.
On Bercow v Farage. If Farage wins and as is likely there is arguments with the EU - who would be the most likely MP to defect?
The last Conservative Home poll for the leadership election was within 2% so I’m not sure we should dismiss it so lightly. There is also a big difference between those who comment and those who vote. However the questions can often loaded in the way Sir Humphrey set out in Yes Prime Minister. I’d say the respondents are a good sample base but i’d want to see how the questions were set out before reading too much into them.
Just got back from a friend’s wedding and off to the reception tonight in….Buckingham. I’ll count the Farage posters in the centre of town and let you know. Doubt I’ll have to count too high, the more I reflect the more I see Bercow winning by thousands.
I think Tim Montgomerie is good on mood and instinct and anecdote.
I suspect he’s bang on the nail in Buckingham and that Bercow is in a little bit of bother.
Couldn’t have happned to a nicer guy - he’ll be going through the door marked “exit” with about half his Parliamentary electorate!
I just watched an entire Fox News debate on Obama’s Healthcare bill.
Given the reports of the same we get in the UK, I was expecting to see a panel of US Marines burning the Union Jack, with cutaways to obviously photoshopped images of elderly British citizens being thrown into the sea by NHS staff, a bad actor playing Stephen Hawking being starved to death in a British hospital, etc etc
What I saw was a passionate, vigorous, intelligent debate about private healthcare versus state subsidised health care, which made some very interesting points. e.g. Why should a sensible non-smoking US citizen pay, through his taxes, for the expensive cancer treatment of a feckless fat person who smokes 60 a day and gargles vodka?
Indeed, why should they pay?
The debate concluded with the answer: we need a new health system, but what?
Frankly, I wish we had such an intelligent debate about health care in the UK, rather than the partisan name calling and praying to the idol of the NHS that we now “enjoy”.
If there is any caricaturing in this process, it is the Brits caricaturing the American debate on health. And this was the Fox News that liberals love to hate.
Another thought on Berkow-Farage is if Berkow starts to worry about needing party support in his seat then he might try and curry favour with his own side leaving Labour MPs to regret voting for him.
Which would be pretty funny.
As someone who was recently described (much to my chagrin) as a “wet tory” I heartily dislike Tim Montgomerie’s agenda and much of his posturing as the voice of Tory grass roots. However-
On the thread when he reported this poll he does claim that the poll was taken from a panel of some 5000 Conservative memebers that he created at the time of the 2005 leadership election (from the lists of the various candidates’ supporters). He further claims that in the selection of the representative sample from that panel he does seek to represent the Conservative memebership’s overall demographic. Therefore while not a member of BPC he does attempt some weighting. In the thread (go over to Conhome to read it) it has to be said that he is a bit hazy over what exactly he does in the way of weighting though.
39. The “we need healthcare reform, but its too early to decide on any particular path” has been a Republican talking point used to kill healthcare bills for decades. It is evident that most Republicans do not want universal healthcare, and they will oppose any plan to provide it, being inconsistent if need be. If you have an individual mandate, it’s “domineering government control”, if you have a plan without one it’s “inefficient”. Perhaps if the GOP were talking in good faith, they could prove it with their own bill, demonstrating their preferences. But they do not, neither in Opposition nor when they were in Government.
As much as I’d like to trust the assessment of someone who openly admits he is a strong right-winger who hates lefties, I’d have to see the debate and judge for myself. Do you have a link?
The last Conservative Home poll for the leadership election was within 2% so I’m not sure we should dismiss it so lightly.
by woody662 September 5th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
woody, that was a long time ago, the site was young. Since then a million UKIPers have taken up squatters rights on ConHome since then. The invasion was fairly rapid.
In fact I stopped reading it regularly shortly after that election because of the comments becoming ridiculously skewed for what purported to be ‘the’ Tory site ( ie not a general site like here) and the hyping of the polls.
The final straw was a set of comments in which only one out of ten supported the recently elected leader, all the others said how he needed to ‘buck up his ideas’ reinstate grammar schools immediately and generally follow UKIP although they never actually mentioned that party at all, and, banging on an d on about how he needed to be more like Mrs T.
Nothing about developing policy. But many of the dinosaurs seemed to be in tune with Montgomery’s tebbitite attitude.
I think this is definitely a voodoo poll, in methodological terms.
I am far from sure it is necessarily an inaccurate one in its findings, however. Bercow is deeply unpopular among Tories.
yeah sean - i catch Fox where i am - but not CNN! Not complainin’…
42. No, I watched it on telly. Here in the Mango.
Trust me, it was smart. Of course it had a rightwing agenda, but no more than Channel 4 News has a leftwing agenda, and at least Fox admits it has an agenda.
The more important thing was the open-ness of the debate, it looked like a genuine attempt to analyse the merits of different health systems - and there was a LOT of criticism of Big Medical companies and their lobbyists.
I sometimes think liberal Brits just prefer to see most Americans - especially anyone connect to Fox or Murdoch or the Republicans - as nutjobs and will not accept any evidence otherwise, even if it is shown to them.
I really want Cameron to permit politically slanted broadcasting - right and left. At the moment we have a stifling monopoly of centre, centre-left views on the TV. Its not good for our democracy, and our pathetic non-debate on the NHS is a good example of the effect.
Let a thousand flowers bloom. Marxists to Racists. Let them all be heard.
“Why should a sensible non-smoking US citizen pay, through his taxes, for the expensive cancer treatment of a feckless fat person who smokes 60 a day and gargles vodka?”
I guess, seant, it’s whether you feel that such free riding is a price you are willing to pay to ensure that those who can’t afford healthcare through no fault of their own are covered.
ConHome is a blog - a conservative blog. there are plenty others.
The demographics of the poll are conservative members (it claims). Its only as valid as the cross-section of members who bothered to reply.
And of course its not at all valid in respect of the electorate as a whole.
“who would be the most likely MP to defect?” — defect? Bercow is Speaker - a man with no party to defect from.
Farage is with UKIP.
I do not care for Bercow and I do not support UKIP. Farage has exposed a flaw in the constitution with this self serving stunt. Bercow - the Speaker - is supposed to be independent with no party affiliation. For Farage to try to gain election in this way is clearly wrong. The Speaker should not have to face re-election or should become ex-officio and give up his seat. He could still be voted in or out after every GE.
“We know that loads of Conservative members vote UKIP in European elections” — ?? ‘loads’ ?? I do deny it. People do vote for UKIP but how do you know they are Conservative ‘members’ ?
UKIP (and BNP) I would suggest take votes from previous Labour voters (and people who would not otherwise vote) as well as tory voters.
St John asked me earlier what ‘my take’ on the Bercow vs Farage contest is. Simple, Bercows unpopularity is legendary but legends are not always facts. My information from friends in and around his constituency is that he is a hard-working and diligent constituency MP who is respected hugely, if not wildly popular with some of his more head-banging rightwing constituency activists.
Farage, on the other hand, represents everything about politicians that the public say they hate. Opportunistic, pompous pin striped, and a careerist who it would seem will say anything or do anything for 5 minutes of fame and a few votes.The voters of Buckingham who have seen his bid for what it is, a cheap publicity stunt.
Farage will have secured the Speaker hero status amongst the Tory intake in the next Parliament if, as I expect, UKIP are humiliated there.
Voodoo poll?
Doodoo poll more like.
43. I stand to be corrected but the poll results are only those of Conservative memers. Now I suppose a few ukippers might lie but I can’t see there would be enough to skew a sample to a great extent. It’s a shame it can’t be tested like it was in the leadership election but the poll results do ring true more often than not. I wouldn’t bet against the polls they come out with.
btw, i’ve notice that wearing nylon stocking is very popular amongst the young women of Korat - not complaining either…
47. I’M NOT SAYING I AGREE WITH THAT POINT OF VIEW!!
I’m just saying it’s the kind of valid and interesting argument you simply never hear on a mainstream British TV news discussions of health care.
All we get is “I love the NHS”, “I love the NHS more,” “I love the NHS so much I think I’ve just climaxed on a photo of Nye Bevan”.
Why can’t we have a smart, open, mature TV debates of our own? I don’t think the Brits are stupider than the Americans. So it must, at least in part, be a fault in our broadcasting system.
It needs bigtime shaking up.
I agree with Witan. There is a wing in the party that the rest can’t be bothered with anymore. Tim still has the welcome mat out.
Such polls are tosh and easy to manipulate. I get invited to take part in Cons Home polls every month, even though I am not a member of the Conservatives or any other party.
re 49 Marcus - Surely your description “Opportunistic, pompous pin striped, and a careerist who it would seem will say anything or do anything for 5 minutes of fame and a few votes” applies to Bercow as well?
And what’s wrong with being opportunistic? As I always say that is the political insult of last resort - to be used when your opponent is being particularly effective.
49. I’d agree with that, to put it in the context of this thread about Con Home, the nutters make all the noise but the readers and voters have a far more moderate take.
53. I had the idea that there was already some sort of form of rationing on the NHS, in that if you did something splendiferously stupid to yourself you weren’t about to get extra lifesaving measures on the taxpayer’s dime. Or were all those Daily Mail articles about dying 19-year-old cirrhosis sufferers being denied liver transplants PURE LIES?
“Why can’t we have a smart, open, mature TV debates of our own?”
John Humphries asked that question without any hint of irony on Today last week.
I agree, though- the debate has, nutters on both sides excluded, brought out the best in America: a committed, knowledgeable willing to take the time to go to debates, read the policies and demand to be heard.
FWIW if I had 100 votes, I would cast all of them for Bercow.
Tim no longer wears the mantle of the Tory activists spokesman. I hope he realises this.
40. I’d laugh.
49 Bercow represents much of what was and still is wrong with the Tory party - self serving, troughing and bereft of principles or ideology. Putting personal gain and status before the public good and service to his country.
Farage, whilst a flamboyant character, at least has principles and a policy position supported by many or perhaps now even the majority in this country.
I actually doubt Farage will win but it would be a great result if he did. And a delicious irony that the pursuit of position and power by Bercow left hiim isolated and actually contributed to his own downfall.
Whenever I see Farage I always think he is a rather witty, likeable TV performer - human, smart, eloquent, candid - a vast improvement on most politicians. And this isn’t just cause I am a eurosceptic, I get the same reaction to George Galloway when I see him on TV (and I utterly revile his politics).
Compare Farage to, say, Bob Ainsworth (a Cabinet Minister!), or Peter Hain, or Quentin Davies, or Shaun Woodward, or - to be fair - half the pompous old Tory grandees.
Farage is vastly superior; he is wasted in UKIP. I am fairly sure he gets high approval ratings when he is seen on TV.
However I think Tories would be totally daft to allow him to unseat Bercow. If they hate Bercow that much, find some reason to remove him as Speaker after that have won the election. But don’t hand UKIP a seat and thereby publicise Tory splits.
“Trust me, it was smart. Of course it had a rightwing agenda, but no more than Channel 4 News has a leftwing agenda, and at least Fox admits it has an agenda.”
When did Channel 4 last create broadcast flat out lies about a senior Conservative candidate? Anything akin to the rubbish that Obama was educated in a radical Islamist madrassa? When did it last suggest that Samantha Cameron could be communicating with a “terrorist” hand movement? When has a senior anchor on Channel 4 repeatedly suggested a Conservative Prime Minister is similar to the Nazis?
And Fox DOESN’T admit it has an agenda. It consistently claims to be “fair and balanced”, while berating the normal news channels as being “liberal” propaganda. When Rupert Murdoch is questioned about this, he gets as angry as Bill O’Reilly caught in his own lies.
59
Actually from what I have seen he represents mainstream Tory activism far more than you do Sally. Were it not for the fact that people are so desperate to get rid of Brown, no matter who he is replaced with, then you would see that the grassroots Tory party is far more in line with Monty’s position than with your own.
56 - One can argue about the merits of opportunism. What a politician will always get into trouble with the electorate for is being seen to be opportunistic.
UKIP’s raison d’etre is Europe (and the agenda to leave the EU). I would hope that the Buckingham electorate will treat the attempt to campaign on “cleaning up politics” with the contempt it deserves.
64. I think that depends on what part of the country you live in. I’ve seen Tory associations which collectively roll their eyes at the hardline right-wingers, and other ones which seem like a Spitting Image stereotype.
So are we expecting any proper polls tonight?
Applies equally well to polticalbetting. Shouldn’t this site be honest and just stick a Liberal Democrat sign across the top with a wee Labour one below. Or maybe even a Tory logo with a big red X across it.
ConHome doesn’t claim to be a polling company. Blogs nowadays have loads of survey widget options to provide snapshots and it’s nothing more than that. ConHome’s polls are indicative and no more. Just like the polling companies whose specific numbers I also don’t trust.
As for Bercow I hope he gets kicked out of parliament. No one can claim that his seat should be uncontested due to his notionally impartial position when Bercow himself orchestrated the most partisan strategy to his elevation. Because of that I dearly hope he will reap what he sowed.
Mike, I said that being opportunistic was something that voters always say they hate, amongst (many) other things.
If Bercow had the same reputation amongst his constituents that we keep being *told* he has amongst MP’s then I think Farage would be in a better position. Newsnight struggled to find any local voters with a bad word for Bercow as an MP, and you can bet they tried very hard. As it is, much of the anti Bercow sentiment is in my view a figment of fevered imagination amongst Labour MP’s and some Conservatives.
I have said before that Bercow is no charmer - but he shares that with many MP’s. He does nothing to dissuade anyone from disliking him if that is their default position - like all ambitious people he has made enemies on his own side, so there are a few out there; but the idea that he is widely hated is totally overdone - mostly comments by people who have never even met the man.
And my point remains that Farage will provide something for Bercow that he has never had before, peer respect.
56
Opportunistic, pompous pin striped, and a careerist who it would seem will say anything or do anything for 5 minutes of fame and a few votes”
Hmmm is there a politician in any party who wouldn’t fit that description, apart from you of course Marcus; Oh! and Nadine.
Watching Farage, you suddenly realise how much he’s changed, he’s quite an assured performer now, comfortable in his skin.
p.s.
I can understand your concern Marcus, can imagine the UKIP stance would be quite appealing too many in Torbay, come those mid-term blues…..who knows?
64 - And what HAVE you seen, being neither Tory member nor supporter?
65
Actually it is many yeasr since UKIPs sole raison d’etre was the EU. They have long considered themself to be the Tory party in exile. And as such it is no way opportunistic to wish to see the back of someone who has betrayed those principles so comprehensively for his own personal advancement.
48. “Bercow is Speaker - a man with no party to defect from.
Farage is with UKIP.”
I think what CJ-A meant is that if Farage won, UKIP would have a parliamentary presence and it would be more likely Tories might defect if they became disillusioned with any Cameron fudging on Europe.
63. Fatuous rubbish. Channel 4 broadcasts drivel all the time.
I remember when Bush left the White House, their reporter started the broadcast by saying “at least he got one thing right”. Just outrageous bias. And this from a broadcaster that has claimed public money. And yet it would flat out deny any bias, probably because IT DOESN’T EVEN REALISE IT IS BIASSED.
That is the true horror of the BBC and C4 etc, their bias is so deep rooted and unquestioned they genuinely think they are “fair”. Hey, everyone knows Dubya was an idiot, so its “fair” to point it out in a news report, as if an opinion is a fact.
By contrast, Fox is obviously right wing, conservative, and doesn’t pretend to be anything else. Of course it won’t admit to being “biassed”, it admits it is opinionated, and is providing balance to the left wing slant of other major media, like the NYT or CNN.
This is arguable, but at least Yanks do not have to support Fox News with their taxes. They can take it or leave it.
I want the same freedoms in British broadcasting. Start by selling off C4, and break up or reform the Beeb. And let news TV be openly slanted, to left or right.
64. I think he might represent a section of mainstream Tory inactivism.
“Farage, whilst a flamboyant character, at least has principles and a policy position supported by many or perhaps now even the majority in this country.”
With his nose in the trough to a far greater extent in the EU, and a record of voting against transparency.
I hope he does campaign on those issues-he’ll get creamed.
And ConHome fights back
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/09/those-tories-backing-nigel-farage-in-buckingham-are-being-drawn-into-a-political-stunt.html
64 Richard Tyndall
How are we to judge?
If the Conservative Home polls were properly conducted and weighted, you might have a fair point.
To me it looks like suspiciously like a self-selecting sample, without even any controls to ensure that only Conservative members are polled.
The Conservative party as a whole chose David Cameron over David Davis. That decision more or less speaks for itself.
“ConHome’s polls are indicative and no more”
Yes, but they aren’t presented as anything other than an authoritative canvass of grassroots opinion.
71
Plenty. Not being a supporter doesn’t mean I am not surrounded by people who are or that I walk around with my eyes and ears closed. In fact it is that ability not to be blinded by party loyalty like so many Tories on here that allows me to see what the true feeling of the grass roots support is.
The deperation amongst the party fanatics to get their candidates elected no matter what, means they fail to see that they by no means represent the wider opinion of the membership. And of course it allows them to write off anything that disagrees with their position and views such as ConHome as being extremist and unrepresentative in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.
What evidence is there that ConHome is perfectly representative of Tory opinion?
@65:
No one person should claim to speak for a party of 22,000-odd people. The hubris is infuriating.
I’m fairly convinced that Tim’s brand of Better Off Outery and neoconnery and ultra-Thatcherism and GOP-style evangelical Jesuservatism does not represent the mainstream of Conservative Party thought.
If I believed for a second that was the way the party was going, I’d run screaming out the door.
62: ‘Farage is vastly superior; he is wasted in UKIP. I am fairly sure he gets high approval ratings when he is seen on TV.’
Wasn’t Farage a Tory MP once? (Or did I just imagine that?)
Incidentally, it is unthinkable that ConservativeHome isn’t aware of the lack of polling credibility - it is, after all, funded by Stephen Shakespeare, founder of YouGov…
@80:
The only Tory MP I can think of who is ‘aligned’ with Tim Montgomerie is Mad Nad, a woman widely regarded within and without as a wingnut.
I am deeply ambivalent about Farage who is an opportunistic if articulate chancer - but my loathing of Bercow is unfathomable: Pompous, self opinionated, affectatious, spiteful, disloyal, nasty and ruthless.
I hope they BOTH lose.
64. I’ll elaborate on that.
We are shaped like an hourglass [the active membership rather than individual members].
The old brigade turn up to the AGM/Execs etc but the party is increasingly if not exclusively being run by those in their forties or approaching it. We get the oldies and the youngster out. The forty somethings and the youngsters are in Camerons ship. Most of the active oldies are too. The rest buy raffle tickets and either:
a. whinge
or
b. sit back and breathe a sigh of relief that they can hand onto a new generation and that the party didn’t die on ther watch.
Don’t underestimate the power of youth in the Tory party.
56
Straw in the wind Marcus?
Ham, Plymouth
Lab - 1243 (44%, +2.7)
Con - 676 (23.9%, -15.7)
UKIP - 442 (15.6%, +15.6)
Ind - 204 (7.2%, +7.2)
LD - 181 (6.4%, -6.8)
BNP - 82 (2.9%, +2.9)
Lab hold
“GOP-style evangelical Jesuservatism”
That is extremely off-putting.
As ever people confuse the issue of whether ConHome represents “Tory grassroots opinion” or a strand of Tory grassroots opinion. It is by claiming to be the former that people take issue with - nobody is claiming that the general views expressed by Montgomerie have no wider support.
Take the local Govt section - the editor is very much on the right wing “slash and burn” wing of the Councillor base. But if he was in anyway typical of Tory councillors then local govt services in the majority of the country would look very different to as they do.
84 - Slightly mysogynistic gay man comment Martin.
A woman who I disagree with is de facto “mad” - not a very robust analysis eh?
73. I’ve never said that Channel 4 or BBC don’t have certain political leanings. In fact, I’m on record as saying I think the BBC has a liberal centre-left bias. But to suggest one C4 journalist describing George Bush as getting “one thing right” is equivalent is levels of bias to broadcasting wall-to-wall for several days that Obama went to a radical madrassa - well, that’s just ridiculous.
Incidentally, CNN has Lou Dobbs as primetime anchor, who makes your good self seem like a flag waver for immigration. And when did any of these “left wing” channels do a serious report on poverty, or have someone on arguing for collective ownership of the means of production?
84 It is a one issue partnership.
As a floating voter who intends to vote Tory - I take ConHome with a MASSIVE pinch of salt, but only because I know it has a reputation for UKIPery.
For those who don’t know any better - and assume it is indeed the ‘home of Conservatives’ then no wonder the right-wing of the Party are delighted to get the PR brownie points/puff up Tim M’s own brand masquerading as the viewpoint of most Tory sleeve-wearers.
I recall a similar poll only a few months ago that claimed the ‘new intake’ of PPCs were all Daily Mail target readers = keen on going to church, anti EU, like women to look after the kids at home and other such stuff…
@90:
No, Nadine Dorries is not mad because she possesses a vagina.
She’s mad because she’s a grade-A fruitloop.
76. So Tim isn’t even representative of Con Home
71 - What a risible contradiction. Surely party grass roots activists, to which you yourself referred at 64, are the most “fanatic” (to use your own words…I prefer committed) about getting Conservatives elected. So if you choose to avoid their company, as you so obviously do and with such obvious disdain, then how on earth can you contrive to know their opinions?
[Moderated]
94 - In your humble opinion, on what basis do you conclude that she is “mad”?
Richard Tyndall. You are right. ConHome probably is closer to one wing of the Tory membership - the David Davis, Liam Fox, No Turning Back, Conservative Way Forward, what we used to call dry side- now in the minority.
There is a tension in every party between what hard-line activists want and what party needs to do to win power and run the country; Conhome probably lifts the lid on some of that, but fails to balance it proportionately with the majority who are now of the one nation, centrist, Bow group, pragmatic side.
In failing to do so they make Labour propaganda easier.
85, maybe someone should stand on the Morris Dancer manifesto
All attractive women aged 16-28 to wear mandatory school uniforms.
Less sleaze, lower expenses for MPs. The members of the list to be fired into space from some sort of giant artillery piece.
The reversion to proper imperial measurements, for weights, distance, fluid measures and money.
Mr/Mrs/Miss to be the typical form of address instead of first names.
Supporting Manchester United to be a criminal offence.
People who stop suddenly or dawdle on pavements, or who walk several abreast, will be loaded into a trebuchet and fired into the Channel.
Fat persons will be obliged by law to purchase as many train, plane or theatre seats as necessary to contain their blubber. Failure to do this is rude and will result in them being fired from a reinforced trebuchet into the North Sea.
Any individual or organisation responsible for ridiculous levels of mollycoddling of the general public or specific individuals will be slapped about the face with a haddock, in public.
The construction of a fleet of 4-6 Death Stars.
90
Are you Verity from CoffeeHouse? She accuses anyone who doesn’t like Sarah Palin of being sexist and afraid of strong women.
86 “The forty somethings and the youngsters are in Camerons ship. Most of the active oldies are too.”
Not from where I’m sitting they are not. I think you are in for a very big shock after the next election when you realise just how far out of touch with Tory grassroots opinion on matters such as Europe your supposed mainstream position really is. You confuse the fact that they are (thankfully) socially liberal/libertarian with being wets on other issues. That is a grave mistake.
@76/95:
Being fair to Tim, one of the reasons why Isaby was brought on board is that he wanted a broader range of Conservative opinion to be represented on the editorial staff than he get from his pretty young minion Sam Coates, whose opinions meant he was never anything other than a hunky version of Tim.
Isaby’s influence on ConHome is substantial, and he’s a Cameroon in most ways that matter.
100 - A standard haddock?
99 - It’s really basically the Iain Duncan Smith wing. Which we know isn’t tiny because he did manage to win a leadership election after all.
90 - Absolutely not.
However, I dislike the lazy stereotypes thrown at women in the Tory Party who take a stand on important issues of principle.
The abuse they get would never be thrown at men in the same way (e.g. Ann Widdecombe’s virginity etc.)
@102:
Come now.
Conservatives are, first and foremost, pragmatic scholars of power. If Dave does what two decades of Tory leaders were unable to and WINS A GENERAL ELECTION, he’ll be untouchable as far as the grassroots are concerned.
104, aye. Was written before my foray into fish-related genetic research.
103. Isaby’s (c)hunky too!
@106:
It just so happens that the Party’s foremost representative of that repugnant brand of GOP-esque evangelicalism is Nadine Dorries.
I maintain that I would consider her equally mad if she espoused the same opinions whilst in possession of a Y chromosome. You may choose not to believe me, but that’s your choice.
I think people on both sides of this debate are basing it too much on their experience of their local association. Different associations differ markedly in their makeup of Thatcherites/One-nationers. I suspect that nationwide its about a 50-50 split. However, having a one nationer as Prime Minister will tip the balance to that side, as will the passage of time.
“he’ll be untouchable as far as the grassroots are concerned.”
Although many on ConHome give the impression of being completely divorced from the roots of Conservatism and appear to place ideology above pragmatism.
@109:
What a difference one letter makes.
O/T
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8239688.stm
Why exactly should working on Sundays be voluntary in a profession which has a more-or-less fixed need for Sunday employees?
105. But only because he faced Ken Clarke.
73 - one of things I like about the TV (and radio) talking heads here is the breadth of opinion. If you want the Liberal view, there’s CNN. If you want a more conservative aspect, there’s Fox News (I’m talking about regular Fox news, not Beck, Hannity etc).If you want extreme on the right there’s messrs. Beck, Hannity etc. On the radio the choice is much bigger. Limbaugh’s ratings - at 3 hours a day of exposure - are very good.
On the left there is not the same volume or numbers to compete with the conservative voices. Liberal talk radio & TV just doesn’t get anywhere near the ratings that the more conservative voices get.
CNN doesn’t announce it’s liberal any more than Fox announces it isn’t. But watching I gives you a fair idea pretty fast.
For the 1st quarter of this year, as well as the most viewers for its regular news coverage, (more than double CNNs), Fox had 9 of the ten most watched news analysis shows - only MsNBC’s ‘Countdown with Keith Olberman’ broke the stranglehold at number 10. Olberman was pulled from coverage of the GOP Convention in te middle of it last year for his blatant anti-GOP bias, so there are the liberal viewers.
The figures are clear - conservative talk radio & TV totally overwhelm the liberal equivalent.
Why is this? If people watching / listening to the ‘left’ all vote democrat and all those watching / listening to the ‘right’ vote GOP, McCain would still be enjoying his landslide victory, and control of both sides of Congress.
At the end of the day, maybe the right wing stuff has more ‘entertainment value’ than the liberal stuff – and there is a lot more of it
110 - You display a rather mean streak of queeny authoritarianism just because another Conservative isn’t signed up to your liberal agenda.
If her views are so wacky, why are you so bent out of shape about them?
Remember Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment!
105 - Oh come on almost anyone of limited consequence who was anti-euro would have beaten Ken Clarke at that point. IDS has many qualities but one of them isn’t a base within the Conservative party.
118 Tim B (not the other one)
I thought MSNBC was the ‘liberal’ network - and that its ratings were far higher than CNN, though not quite at FOX levels??
106. If you have a very right wing Tory male in his 60s who was a virgin, you can guarantee he would be pilloried by the left.
@118:
I appear to have offended you, for reasons I’m not entirely certain of.
I’m particularly puzzled that you’re blaming my sexuality. Is it because you believe that it’s because all gay men are a little misogynistic and that my problem with Nadine is that she’s a woman?
Even though I’ve told you that’s not the case and it has nothing to do with her sex.
100
with the majority who are now of the one nation, centrist, Bow group, pragmatic side.
Yeah! I’m sure.
Oh by the way will you be fasting at Ramadan?
@121:
It is. MSNBC is consider the liberal FOX, although mainly because of Keith Olbermann and his lovely hair.
43 Witan You draw a very accurate picture of what it was like in the early days. I remember being in despair at the attempts to rubbish what had been a well organized open election only to find continual moans about the results by as you say the influx of Ukippers.
Labour would not be in the mess they are in now if they had followed a similar voting procedure.
As an afterthoght though didn’t Tim devise that voting system? I may be wrong but I certainly knew of it through his earlier work in relation to IDS
125 Martin Coxall
I think Rachel Maddow and Ed Schultz also draw fairly large audiences…
121 - from TV Week:
“CNN bled primetime ratings points in the first quarter of 2009 and Fox News Channel led the cable news networks on several fronts during a news cycle marked by the beginning of President Barack Obama’s administration and a global economic crisis.
Among the three major cable news networks, Fox News averaged 2.3 million viewers during primetime in the first quarter, according to Nielsen Media Research. The network had its third best quarter in primetime viewership, behind the fourth quarter of 2008 (presidential election coverage) and the third quarter of 2005 (Hurricane Katrina coverage). CNN averaged 1.1 million viewers, while MSNBC had about 950,000. Compared with last year, Fox News rose 24%, CNN declined 10% and MSNBC was up 22%.
For the total day, Fox News led with 1.2 million viewers, followed by CNN with 740,000 and MSNBC with 473,000. All three networks saw increases for total viewership for the day over the first quarter of 2008, with Fox News up 26%, CNN up 17% and MSNBC up 20%.
Among the key adults 25-54 demographic, Fox News was also the highest ranked in both total-day and primetime averages. The network finished the quarter with an average 511,000 viewers in the demo during primetime, up 19% from last year, and 317,000 for the total day, up 23%. CNN was, again, the only one to take a dip in primetime, averaging 343,000 viewers 25-54, down 22% from last year, and 236,000 viewers for total-day, up 7%. MSNBC tied CNN in primetime average viewers in the demo with 343,000, up 7% from last year, and 180,000 viewers in the demo, up 11%.
In all of cable, Fox News finished the quarter as the second-most-watched network in primetime, behind only USA Network. CNN ranked 17th, MSNBC placed 24th and HLN, CNN’s sister news channel, came in 30th. For the total programming day, Fox News was 5th, CNN was 14th and MSNBC was 28th.”
To all liberal lefties (especially Socrates) who have been vilifying FOX, answer these questions.
1. Did FOX forge documents to vilify a sitting president? (No, it was Dan Rather and the lefty MSM CBS)
2. Did FOX sit on news of a Rightwing president’s adulterous behaviour. (No, it was the lefty MSM who sat on Cli8nton’s pecadillos for two days until the news was outed by a blogger)
3. Did FOX conspire to whitewash a brutal murderous American hating dictator. (Oh no, it was CNN. See http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110003336
)
@126:
Under the current system, the party leader is chosen by the parliamentary party selecting two candidates by exhaustive ballot, and then the membership choosing the winner.
Howard proposed swapping the roles around, i.e. the membership would select two candidates from the field via some preferential system, and the parliamentary party would choose a winner from the final two.
ConHome led the opposition to the reform, and Tim claims victory in having stopped it. That said, it was never likely to pass anyway, since there was no clear plurality for the reform at the party convention anyway.
And, of course, it is the system that elected David Cameron, who was Michael Howard’s heir apparent, so it’s not clear he was ever committed to the change in the first place.
123 - I apologise Martin
It’s just that I regard you as a thoughtful and intelligent PB poster (much like Sean Fear) and am disappointed at your discordant note of rubbishing another Tory as “mad” - which you surely know is literally and politically not the case.
48 Having been a constituency Chairman, I can assure you that loads of party members in Hertsmere did vote UKIP in 2004 and 2009, and it was equally clear that there were a lot of people splitting their ticket between UKIP/Conservatives in the simultaneous local elections. Yougov’s giant survey in June found that a plurality of Conservative voters wanted to leave the EU, although the margin was obviously far greater among UKIP voters.
Most Conservative party members, whether young or old, are right wing. They wouldn’t go the trouble of joining the party if they weren’t. But like their counterparts in other parties, they temper their view of what they would *like* to see happen, with the need to get elected.
@131
Well, I don’t think she’s mentally ill like Gordon Brown is.
However, politically, she’s out there. Way beyond what I consider acceptable. As a confirmed atheist, her Republican brand of angry evangelicalism doesn’t appeal. I can’t think why.
128 Tim B (not the other one)
Thanks… very interesting.
I suspect that figures for news networks themselves aren’t particularly important though. It’s like BBC News 24 vs Sky News - both of which are viewed by one man, his dog, and occasionally denizens of PB.com.
More important are viewership figures for the figurehead shows.
133, what do you mean, specifically?
Just curious, as an atheist myself, what you’re referring to.
I’ve just realized Gordon Brown is going to be here for 4 days in NY and PA for the UN and the G20 (sigh). But luckily it’s the week of the Tour Championship golf tournament so I’ll be too busy to notice.
@134:
The big thing is that in the US, bleeding heart wet wishy-washy handwringing moonbats have their pick of venues for their TV news, whereas gun-toting Jesus-bothering swivel-eyed wingnuts only have FOX news.
So it’s not surprising that FOX hoovers up the majority of rightist news-seekers, since it doesn’t have any competition.
@135:
Like most evangelicals, she directly or indirectly uses what Jesus wants as the centrepiece of her thinking on any political issue.
I’d rather we started from, you know, evidence and rational thought rather than trying to second guess a magic man that probably doesn’t exist. But THAT’S JUST ME.
134: from TV Week (same article):
“Fox News also dominated the list of top news analysis programs, claiming nine of the top 10 spots. “The O’Reilly Factor” finished first, averaging 3.4 million viewers and posting a 27% gain over last year. “O’Reilly” also wrapped up the month of March with its 100th consecutive month in the No. 1 spot. Following “O’Reilly” in the top five were “Hannity” (2.7 million), “Glenn Beck” (2.2 million), “Special Report With Bret Baier” (2 million) and “The Fox Report With Shepard Smith” (1.9 million). MSNBC broke into the top 10 with “Countdown With Keith Olbermann,” which averaged 1.4 million viewers for the quarter.”
Due to not taking the trouble to read it carefully I said Olberman was at #10, when in fact he’s merely not in the top 5. Apologies
Are you sure about that?
I just think that the cultural issues that matter, politically, are so different from those in the US, that there’s not much point trying to make a comparison.
138 - That’s completely untrue.
You will struggle to find (m)any references in Hansard amongst a number of local and national campaigns that Dorries has fought, to God/Jesus etc.
I’m afraid you’re believing your own militant atheist bulls@@t, old boy.
And in other news - the HYS on Afghanistan is pretty anti.
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&forumID=6964&edition=1&ttl=20090905181755&#paginator
138, stop making baby Jesus cry, Mr. Coxall.
I do agree with your point. I also dislike the view that religion and religious perspectives should have an exalted status. I used to frequent a Muslim forum where quite a few of the Muslim users wanted all religions to be above insult or ridicule.
That said, I don’t subscribe to the Dawkins approach of being very scientific but so strident and even rude that people who might be swayed by rational argument are put off by irreverent temperament.
48/72. Bercow won’t be an MP if Farage wins. What I meant(blast my inarticulate rantings) was that if the EU is not an issue then it’s quite likely that Farage would defect to the Conservatives. The answer to Bercow and UKIP in one movement.
129.
Firstly, I am Conservative.
Secondly, what evidence do you have that CBS forged any documents, rather than simply failed to authenticate them properly? It is worth bearing in mind that Rather had his contract ended by the company - have Beck or O’Reilly or Hannity had this happen to them by Fox after they have broadcast lies?
Thirdly, it is good journalistic practice to corroborate a story before publicising it.
Fourthly, every journalistic organisation who has men on the ground in dangerous foreign regimes have to be selective about what they broadcast in case they put their employees in danger. I do not believe anyone who watched CNN for the last decade would have had the opinion Hussein was anything but a nasty dictator.
Fifthly, whataboutism is a very weak defence.
137 But the trend is AWAY from everywhere else and towards Fox. Substantially so. So using your unfortunate and rather silly stereotyping vocab, there are progressively fewer moonbats and progressively more wingnuts as time passes.
147. Either that or most liberals get their news from other sources, like newspapers or the internet.
132 I’m sure what Sean says is absolutely right. I know a good number of LibDem members who vote UKIP in Euro elections so it seems reasonable to assume there are cartloads of Tories doing so.
I wonder if a lot of Democrats watch Fox News because it reassures them by confirming their stereotypes about Republicans?
Oops sorry about the double post.
On Topic, Conservative Home polls are as easily rigged as those polls showing Daily Mail readers want to give Gypsies priority in Healthcare.
113 Though paradoxically, our financial predicament means that Cameron will have to push through reductions in public spending that Thatcher would never have contemplated.
60. SallyC September 5th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
“I had 100 votes, I would cast all of them for Bercow.”
Likewise.
I’m not a fan of Bercow himself, but Farage’s action is contemptible. He has chosen to stand for the one seat in Britain in which, he knows, none of the main parties will stand against him.
I wouldn’t call it daring opportunism but abject cowardice. If he had any guts he’d stand in a contested seat.
152 absolutely. Its nothing to do with expenses or anything else, its purely and simply about UKIP trying to get a toehold.
Of course UKIP are forced to campaign on expenses as the speaker is neutral so they cannot camapaign on issues. Farage will be hoisted by his own petard.
Then he can follow his destiny as a snooty butler for new money somewhere.
@152:
I’m confused.
Are you saying that any politician that attempts to maximise his chances of being elected is contemptible?
@146:
The trend is away from broadcast media towards the Internet. In the long run, FOX is just as f*cked as everyone else.
An increase in FOX viewers relative to CNN, MSNBC etc. didn’t stop a Democratic near-landslide in November, did it?
151. Sean Fear
“Though paradoxically, our financial predicament means that Cameron will have to push through reductions in public spending that Thatcher would never have contemplated.”
List of preferred cutbacks to the average Conservative voter:
Europe
Foreign Aid
‘Immigrants’
‘Layabouts’
‘Foreigners’
‘Multiculturism’
Public sector non-jobs
Quangos
Scotland
Not what actually will be cut?
I’ve always said that ConHome will be a very angry place a year into a Cameron government.
Breaking News…… Breaking News….. Breaking News…….
Wayne has just given us the benefit of his excellent “Political Emotional Intelligence” his next poll prediction is :
Con 44
Lab 25
Lib 17
152
No more self serving or cowardly than Bercow himself with his faux-conservatism. Why should a man who has betrayed all the principles he claims to stand for be allowed a free ride just because he was the beneficiary of Labour party politicking to get his position?
Grrrr.
‘Not’ should read ‘Now’ although ‘Not’ might actually turn out to be correct.
Farage vs Bercow is going to be an anti-climax. Bercow wins because he’s done the leg-work in the constituency and has a Tory-badge. Only if Farage was an Independent Tory would he have any chance…
156 - It strikes as a very angry place now, before he has even got there.
156
I agree. The sense of betrayal felt by many Conservative voters will be very nasty.
157. Wayne
You weren’t very close with your last prediction were you.
Evening all
Just got back in. Mike we won 23-21 conceding 3 breakaway tries, very careless indeed from a winning position of 23-0 and lloking very comfortable. In the league above Manchester apparently lost 0-148 which must be a record in league rugby in the UK>
Just as well I didnt go to Bedford Mike, they were playing away!(and won 12-26 at Doncaster)
“Bercow… has a Tory-badge”
Not correct legally, philosophically or politically.
162 and they will turn to
Prince AndrewGraham Brady as their saviour162. Would Cameron actually be in danger as a leader because of this? It looks like he’s about to get a huge majority, but not because anybody particularly wants him around–people just hate Labour. Without a credible alternative to the left and with a whole lot of people to the right of him, is he in trouble if he doesn’t go true blue immediately?
165 - On most of Bercows positions, he has led and Cameron has followed.
Section 28, Gay adoption and so on.
It’s a voodoo poll all right, but even if it wasn’t it would only be a measure of what people who read ConHome think, and there’s no reason to suppose that this is closely related with what Buckinghamshire voters think. It does provide some support for the hypothesis that some Tories might go and campaign for Farage - if most ConHomers prefer him, some will take that support further and spend their time there, instead of the boring business of unseating Labour.
Seems a jolly good thing to me.
Another bit of light entertainment: Doug at 69 seems to feel this site is biased primarily to the LibDems, and secondarily to Labour. rofl!
168 not to mention following the precious, riddle games and eating raw fish
155 “An increase in FOX viewers relative to CNN, MSNBC etc. didn’t stop a Democratic near-landslide in November, did it?”
If you read my original post on the subject, that was my point!
A less than 7% vote majority hardly constitutes a landslide….
162 Richard Tyndall
“The sense of betrayal felt by many Conservative voters will be very nasty.”
And the beneficiaries will be UKIP and EDP and once Conservative voters start to drift off in that direction it will be very hard to get them back.
The Conservative leadership IMO seriously underestimate how much of their vote is purely anti-Labour and how much disdain the ‘vote blue go green, hug a hoodie, progressive’ line is held by many Conservative voters.
A key difference a Cameron government will face that previous Conservative governments didn’t is that there are now other right of centre parties for disgruntled supporters to switch to.
165. Maybe not in your opinion but his literature that we receive as his constituents does.
163.
Yes I was, it was also the holiday season with many people away. You will see a poll surge now for the tory’s and Labour will be in big trouble from now on believe me …. They are heading for meltdown very soon. Brown will stand down on health grounds and you will see an Election in October !!!
131 OT Re:the earlier stories about Gordon Brown being on last chance antidepressants , i saw this on another site :
If GB was switched from an SSRI (new type drugs) to a MAOI, ( last ditch, old style anti d’s) he would have needed a washout period. The two types of drug interact to cause “serotonin syndrome” which can be fatal.
So he would probably have come off the SSRI just before his holiday and then started on the MAOI while on holiday so that he would hopefully see a therapeutic benefit by the time he returned to work.
Does anyone remember seeing GB’s behaviour deteriorate before his holiday? That would be more circumstantial evidence.
An alternative theory for his current dietary requirements would be that he is taking selegiline for the early stages of parkinson’s disease.
As I know this site, is infested, by supporters of privatisation, is this anyway to run a railway.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8236719.stm
173
In which case he is failing in his duty as Speaker as well. If he is still sending out literature to his constituents claiming to be a Tory MP then that is very dodgy. Is that actually what he is doing?
“It strikes as a very angry place now, before he has even got there”
Quite. Despite the place’s much mooted “And” theory, anytime Cameron comes out with something not to the right of Thatcher they start frothing.
168
The interesting thing being Tim that on those issues I think he was morally right. But again I don’t think that is the position taken by most Tory grassroots members.
No of course not - but he did so for years as our local Tory MP. The brand loyalty is what I’m referring to and why Farage will only unpick that if he were a independent tory.
Now is everyone listening because you need to understand that Brown will stand down on health grounds. I have it from my sources !
175. JamesA
Sounds like another Brown-Hitler parallel.
Wayne
Why if the Conservatives are 20% ahead in the polls will Labour go for an October election?
“If there is any caricaturing in this process, it is the Brits caricaturing the American debate on health. ”
Watching the health care issue throughout gives you a fuller picture, the ‘caricature’ is one that is based on a very unfortunate truth. Surely you can’t have missed it all?
182.
Indeed ! The slow onset of MADNESS !!
183.
Brown will have to stand down on health grounds ! Then election time !!
Wayne
The two issues are not necessarily connected.
In any case Labour would have to chose a new leader.
181 Mmmmmmmm…..I have an inkling that the next forty days are going to be utterly tumultuous in terms of politics.
I feel a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror: “He’s going to lead Labour to utter destruction, isn’t he? Something has to be done…”
Stay tuned.
All these stories about Brown coming out , the OCD, the rages, Sarah pleading with him to seek help, the junk food eating late at night, the erratic actions. The recent reading closely from scripts. No questions. The Bunker.
Brown / Hitler comparisions really are quite widespread……
Things may be coming to a head.
189, maybe. I’ll believe it when I see it.
154. “Are you saying that any politician that attempts to maximise his chances of being elected is contemptible?”
No. It’s a question of how he or she goes about it. He is trying to improve his chances by avoiding contact with his more dangerous opponents. It’s ignominious.
I could add that he is also helping to undermine a valuable constitutional convention. I can’t see any reason, after this, why every party should not put up a candidate in the Speaker’s seat.
“Why can’t we have a smart, open, mature TV debates of our own? I don’t think the Brits are stupider than the Americans. So it must, at least in part, be a fault in our broadcasting system.”
If the debate has been so smart how come that barely a third of people asked had a clue as to what a public option was or, in other polls, why a majority claim they don’t understand the debate?
The problem in the US media is not acknowledged bias but a refusal to make judgements so that a lie is given equal weight as a truth. As such, the fact is that many are basing their view on lies, half truths and propaganda. We need a debate here I agree, but I hope it is one based on reality not on the fantasy terms of the current US debate when we do have it.
On a similar issue a poll of Kentucky in the last week found that half of them did not believe Obama was born in the USA. That’s half of people who believe an acknowledged lie. When a politician has to deal with people like that then political debate as a whole becomes worthless.
189 Junk food eating late at night? Where did that come from. Is he a KFC fan?
188 as Pinhead would have it their ’suffering will be legendary, even in Hell’
No time to catch breath, everyone with the solution but no time to marshall their support, day in and day out a different vision of a Labour future and every day a drop in support.
Were that Brown could have found MacBeth’s enhuit and tomorrow and tomorrow proceeded at the petty pace, but it was alas not to be for him. For Brown it was always the whirlwind, ripping his premiership apart from day one.
193. MTF
Raith Rovers isn’t it?
195
187.
The public would not suffer a third PM in a single parliament !
183 i read he is scoffing down junk food , causing this rapid weight gain we’re seeing. A side effect from his drug treatment.
Even if you dont subscribe to all the stories, you have to admit it is pretty unusual for a PM to duck answering a single journalists question for 6 weeks, whilst making carefully prepared and close-read statements on contentious subjects. Several times.
Something is definitely not right. I think this goes beyond it just being him doing a Macavity. Something’s now badly wrong i feel.
198, maybe. It’s hard to know given Labour’s liking for smearing and setting up little stories. And Brown does have history of not answering questions.
As for weight gain, we can’t know that for sure either. He’s probably above average weight, but that doesn’t mean he’s put it on recently.
197 - They would suffer it, there would be howls of protest but at this late stage nothing much can be done as we are just months away from the last possible date of a general election. The problem is will casting Jonah into the deep calm the troubled seas that are engulfing Labour? I’m not so sure it would.
198.
James you are spot on …. Don’t expect people on here to understand what you have noticed. They usually get it about a month after it’s happened. Very few people on here apart from me and maybe yourself have the political emotional intelligence to notice these things !
158. Richard Tyndall September 5th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
“Why should a man who has betrayed all the principles he claims to stand for be allowed a free ride just because he was the beneficiary of Labour party politicking to get his position?”
Because he’s the Speaker. The convention of not opposing him pertains to the office, not its holder. We can’t very well change the convention to “unopposed, unless we think he’s a jerk”.
If his move to the left was a betrayal then the Tories should have deselected or expelled him. It’s not up to Nigel Farage or UKIP to police such matters.
If Brown were to resign for health issues, could he feasibly continue as an MP?
199 true. he does have a history of not answering questions. but i wonder whether he has not answered any because his mental state has deteriorated to the point where he can’t do much more apart from read from a carefully prepared speech. Even speaking before the G20 today he was so, so wooden. There wasnt even a hint of a personality , he just read what was written on his paper, no flourishes, no engagement. It’s just strange. Even for regular watchers of Brown, used to his oddities, it seems to go beyond what we’ve seen before.
197. Wayne
They would suffer it because they can’t do anything about it.
It wouldn’t do Labour any good though when the election did eventually happen.
ConHome was at its best in the period 2005-2007. Then it was closest to grassroots IMHO, real arguments between those who wanted to continue with the Howard agenda and those that wanted change. There would good posters from the “core side” and from the Cameron side as that emerged during the leadership campaign and in the first year of his leadership. It was then a site that was buzzing and one that had played a big part in keeping the leadership election democratic.
Unfortunately Cameron made a speech in 2007 attacking UKIP and the site was almost immediately targeted by UKIP supporters and over the next few months many good and previously regular posters fell away. The tone in the comments became less representative of all shades.
The question has that happened to the readership and the polling panel? While the Conservative Members panel is largely self selected, like this site the lurkers outnumber the active posters and its likely that while the active posters on the site are not representative the readership is much more so - it is a great resource for finding out what’s going on in the Party.
There is I think a feeling of betrayal in many activists about Bercow’s behaviour and the way he appeared to court Labour in preparation for the Speakership. Top of the mind voting in an internet poll would, I think, result in many saying they would support Farage. A bit of thought about the impact on the Conservative Party on a resurgent UKIP would make most reconsider and by the time of the GE, when party loyalty is at its highest UKIP & Farage will be seen as the enemy.
204, a holiday for him would probably be worse than working. Imagine his position. People want his job and who knows what they might say or do whilst they’re keeping *his* chair warm. He was probably tense as hell being away from the hot seat, even though he’s not exactly able to relax in it.
He’s been deteriorating for a while now.
198. JamesA September 5th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
“you have to admit it is pretty unusual for a PM to duck answering a single journalists question for 6 weeks”
Certainly unusual for a PM, but it’s the way Brown used to operate as Chancellor. It was always his style to depend on big set-piece speeches and disappear when trouble loomed. Maybe he’s just reverting to type?
Farage has only just announced his candidacy, so even if the ConHome poll satisfied all the BPC criteria it would be a poor predictor of the outcome. Most electors of Buckingham have yet to realise that there will be no Labour, LibDem or Conservative candidates in the next election. In the meantime the Farage band wagon has yet to roll, and everyone will surely admit he is a plausible and articulate campaigner. He will be ferreting around the constituency day and night while speaker Bercow sits on his lonely throne listening to a parliament in its death throes droning pointlessly on. By the time of the dissolution Farage will be the most conspicuous man in Buckingham, love him or hate him. Anything could happen, and he’s certainly good value at 4-1.
i think an election wouldnt follow immediately. there’d have to be a leadership election first which would be disasterous for Labour. They would get panned in a GE a few months later, in all likelyhood.
If you think back to You Tube presentation, and the months say April-June, even though Brown was in a mess, he did have some energy. But now after this long holiday he’s had, there doesnt seem to be any energy left in him at all, and the refusal to comment on major stories only to pop up and read a script , then disappear, is odd.
207 - You make him sound like someone in PVS.
Is there anyone on this site who knows less about Scotland and Scottish poltics than MarcusW?
The release of Megrahi is NOT at all unpopular in Scotland - opinion has been moving steadily in favour of it for the last week and I suspect the 45-45 indication from YouGov yesterday underates the real picture.
Even if it doesn’t then two factors pertain. The release is backed by voters, older people and ABCs and most people don’t really care all that much ie at least Macaskill made a decision unlike Brown etc.
The proof of all of this pudding will be when the YouGov polling figures are relased by Mike who has been keeping us waiting for ours.
I say the Nats will be ahead on both Scottish Parliament questions. MarcusW was willing to bet that they are not but has gone very quiet on the wager front in recent hours.
So Mike when will you put us out of our misery and demonstrate once and for all that MarcusW is to Scottish politics what Captain Scott was to the Sahara desert.
Petrova recovers from a break down to take the first set off Zheng 6-4. Let’s hope that the second set has the same result.
211, PVS?
212. What was Captain Scott to the Sahara?
I mean, the Antarctic didn’t do him any favours, you know.
208, good point, he may just be reverting to type, doing set pieces and then scuttling off before anything difficult occurs, but this bodes extremely badly for Labour’s prospects at the next GE if so, and if i was in the Labour party hierarchy now i would be crapping myself at the prospect of this behaviour during a campaign. How the Cabinet even remain supportive is a great mystery. I guess they just want him to take the bullet for everything when the time comes, so they leave him in place, like a rotting corpse.
212. Ex-Pat, Mike can’t release the figures if they’re embargoed - it’s not his decision to make.
214 - Persistant Vegitative State.
218, ah.
In political terms he isn’t far off. When was the last time he made the political weather instead of being forced to either defend a position, or even be reduced to dithering?
He’s a Prime Minister with a majority of 60 odd and no authority. Major did far better with more serious opponents and a wafer thin majority.
210
But what if Brown had to step down suddenly? I don’t think the electorate or her Maj would be too keen on having to wait at the pleasure of the Labour Party to sort out their domestic arrangemnets. Isnt it possible that a GE be called with a caretaker PM?
191/202
“the convention of not opposing him pertains to the office”
A non existent convention. As was posted here yesterday, Labour and the SDP/Lib Dems have stood against every ‘Tory’ Speaker at General Elections since the 1950s.
If your only criticism of Farage standing is a non existent convention then you really have no argument.
220
The Queen will only act within the bounds of the constitution, which allows for multiple changes of PM between elections. She may however advise, if it looks like Labour can’t get anyone, that no one in the current Parliament commands the House.
172.”A key difference a Cameron government will face that previous Conservative governments didn’t is that there are now other right of centre parties for disgruntled supporters to switch to.”
Actually think that a Conservative government insitu will have the opposite effect to be honest. Hence the latest Farage/UKIP stunt.
219. During the financial crisis people have been worried about the emergence of zombie banks. At least they would match our zombie government. When did we last have a government with such focus on sheer day-to-day political survival, without any real strategy for the future of the country? The four great offices of state are currently held by people without any real trust for the other three.
UKIP are right of centre in the same way the Greens are left of centre.
It’s not prevented Labour from winning.
224, sticking with the PVS theme, the upside is that in a few months we get to pull the plug.
Looks like it kicked off in Birmingham again,
Anti-fascists clash with right-wing protesters in Birmingham
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1211414/Anti-fascists-clash-right-wing-protesters-Birmingham.html
Petrova wins 6-4,6-1
Morris Dancer gets a tip right!
Snow forecast in the Ninth Circle of Hell!
Good evening
“Gordon Brown’s damning character flaws have been laid bare
Evasive, indecisive and unpersuasive - how can such a Prime Minister govern, asks Matthew d’Ancona.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/6143739/Gordon-Browns-damning-character-flaws-have-been-laid-bare.html
219 Had a quick read through reports/comment pieces on Gordon Brown this week. What I noticed was “tired”, the word pops up again & again. It’s being used to describe a guy who has just come back from a 6 week break.
That’s in the newspapers, “tired”, as yet no-one in the press/media has raised his health but tired is often used when a journalist doesn’t want to say ill (or of course drunk but that seems unlikely in this case). If there is any truth at all in the blogs I would expect a health story to break in next few weeks, perhaps they are waiting to see how he performs at Conference
230, even more interesting than Brown’s conference performance is that of the pygmy pretenders. What will the likes of Milipede, Johnson and Hatemen do? And what about the Dark Lord of Many Titles?
re 217. Thank you for that.
I’m being allowed to release them early on the site - at 10.30pm
222. Out of interest, how long before the release do you get to see them, Mike?
231. MD
We really do live in an age of political pygmies don’t we.
Compare the ‘government’ now to that of the Major years:
Major, Clarke, Rifkind, Howard, Portillo, Hesletine, Hague
Or that of Labour in 1979:
Callaghan, Healey, Foot, Owen, Rees, Mason, Williams
Like them or not they were serious politicians. Rather different now.
Mike S
Do you ever place any bets if there is some especially interesting info you are given early?
Gotta love the Tories on here.
Hatred of Bercow means they want to elect the leader of the UK’s most corrupt party
236 - Hague, surely is the definition of a pygmy.
And Rifkind should donate every penny he ever earns to Srebrenica.
230.Ted, Brown disappears for an extended holiday totally out of charactor. He avoids giving an opinion on the Megrahi case to the point where it really damages him personally. Straw appears to be out fighting for his own political position, and with not a little irony, doing what Brown should have done weeks ago.
Joyce resigns after not being sacked for speaking out against government policy in the MOD.
Darling letting it be known that he is going to force Brown to listen to him on economic strategy in the run up to the GE. A line up of Harman, Mandelson and Darling standing in for Brown, and with the latter two not even bothering to do so from London.
The Firs Post has the Mole run that story. Brown gives a speech on Afghanistan that one commentator I read reckons was written by civil servants rather than himself, and that his heart was not in it?
You gotta ask what on earth is going on right now?
234 yes, it’s very depressing, the low calibre thing. Great, dignified and historic offices of state staffed by third raters.
236 And Blair every penny he ever earns to Iraq and Afghanistan.
232 What poll is this Mike? Is it a Scottish poll?
236 - BINGO
Is MarcusW different from Marcus Wood? - assume so? Anyway, just wanted to say I think Marcus Wood summarises the actual position of Bercow very well. It’s dangerous on a betting site for people to project their own feelings, and there’s actually no evidence that I know of that Bercow isn’t well-liked in the constituency (or, in fact, among most MPs - remember he is thought to have got lots of Tory votes in the final ballot).
236
Tim, you equate a few comments as “the Tories” as ever you are being disingenuous. Surprise surprise.
236, yes, you’re right. It’s appalling that Lord Farage of Paydwell might join the hallowed and virtuous Commons where the noble and pure, (such as Hoon, Darling, Brown etc ad nauseum) reside.
Just think.
Every senior member of the Cabinet is either openly contradicting or knifing Brown.
Harman, because she wants to be leader and Gordon Brown dissed her with Mandelson.
Darling, for the most ‘honest’ reason - he thinks “Labour investment versus Tory cuts” is untrue, and is genuinely bad for Britain.
Miliband, because he wants to be leader.
Mandelson, because he wants to foist his own agenda on Labour whilst he still has a chance.
The tipping point is Jack Straw. For reasons I can’t fathom yet, he has decided to openly contradict Brown when it comes to “oil for terrorists”. Maybe he wants to be leader too.
192. FFS. If you asked all the people of Britain, does the sun go round the earth or the earth go round the sun, fifty percent of them would say, “er, the sun goes round the earth?”
Why? Because they are women.
I’m not joking. Try it. Most women do not even grasp the basics of the solar system. My friends and I used to try it, most girls got it wrong.
It’s cause women don’t care about this stuff. Try asking a woman is such and such a place east of where we are now? She won’t have a F*cking clue. She’ll say “Oooh, is that near the shoe shop?”
I’m not being misogynist. It’s just a fact that most people are, compared to us geeks and brainiacs, necessarily focussed on things more relevant to their lives. Women especially concentrate on relationships, children and nice lipstick.
Moreover, the majority of all humans are, by definition, of average or below average intelligence. Which is, quite frankly, pretty bloody dim.
So. All these claims about Americans being dumb because X percent believe dinosaurs ate Jesus conveniently ignore the majority of Brits who probably read horoscopes in all seriousness.
As is the case throughout the world.
The fact is:
MOST PEOPLE ARE STUPID, EVERYWHERE, AND HALF OF THE WORLD IS FEMALE
Remember this truth.
245, don’t think Straw will be leader. But then, they’re all bad choices. Milipede the Laughable, Harriet the Man-Hating Bigot, Mandelson the Evil.
246 - Sean has
a.Been drinking.
b.Been looking at women who outfox him with the ages on their fake ID cards.
245.”The tipping point is Jack Straw. For reasons I can’t fathom yet”
wibbler, how about being regarded by his party as a safe pair of hands for a few months in No10?
249 O/T But were you being ironic mentioning Bath 92 in connection with Bercow? At the time it is hard to imagine Bercow as heartbroken.
Martin Bright over at the Spectator blogs - Now Reality Bites for Brown and Labour
“There was a fascinating piece from Martin Kettle in the Guardian today. The headline was slightly laboured but encapsulated the argument well: “An October revolt is plotted. Brown’s head is not safe yet”.
Kettle wears his Blairite loyalties on his sleeve, so it’s pretty easy to see where he is getting his ministerial briefings from. He is well-connected in just the sort of places where the Prime Minister is disliked the most.
But his clear bias does not stop him from making some important points. The first is that the optimum period for a putsch against Brown is the week immediately after party conference season. As Kettle points out, the argument against the present PM leading the Labour Party into the next election has been the same for some time. At the heart of all discussion on the subject is the very real possibility that the present leadership could lead the party into a defeat so catastrophic that it will not recover.
The most significant insight is that Mandelson’s arguments against a coup at the time of the reshuffle and James Purnell’s resignation no longer hold. There is no fear of being rushed into an early election, because by next month the earliest an election could be realistically held would be the spring.
The Labour Party has yet to recognise it, but it is now in full-scale crisis. Somehow the presence of Peter Mandelson is allowing Labour to indulge in its habitual collective denial. By a supreme act of will, the First Secretary gives the impression that he is holding the whole edifice together. The reality is that since his return, the fortunes of the party have declined even further (although it is quite possible they would have been even worse without him.
I’m sure Martin Kettle is being told there will be another attempt on Brown’s crown. But then I’m also convinced that some of the same people were saying they would go over the barricades with Purnell earlier in the year.”
To points on embargoed polls.
In tonight’s case I got it about 2pm but normally they come between 6 - 7 pm.
I do not bet when I am in possession of an embargoed poll before it has been published. That is a form of insider trading.
Tonight’s poll is a new voting intention survey for Scotland. There might well be other polls out but I am not aware of any specific one.
250. There’s no doubt in my mind that Patten’s defeat in 1992 was a good thing for the Tory party, and that Bercow’s next year would be too. The defeat of non-Tories posing in Tory colours is a clear positive.
250.Punter. ??
252.Will this be the voting intention that went with the SNP commissioned YouGov poll, of which we have already had snippets fed to the media?
253
Every party is a broad church from far left through the spectrum to far right. Its a good thing IMHO, too much concentration of views in one area of the spectrum doesn’t make for good Govt.
256. I agree but being a broad church does not mean tolerating people who should be in other parties or who serve interests that are diametrically opposed to those of the party concerned.
253 - He is THE SPEAKER. He is not posing in anyone’s colours.
And as usual there is a dogmatic intolerance of people who would be classified as “Tories” for most of the last century.
In this country a politician’s party often has little to do with their actual views. Most choose their party early and stay there for their whole life. If they stick consistently to their views throughout they will fall in and out of favour with the policies of their party. That is the way it works.
253 - Frightening.
258 - The voice of sense.
“CIA freeze intel over Libya Saturday
Britain was facing the likelihood of an increased terror threat last night — after America’s CIA chiefs threatened to stop sharing vital intelligence with us following the Lockerbie bomber’s release.”
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2009/09/cia-freeze-intel-over-libya.html
250.Punter, you mean Patton losing his seat back then, yes it could be ironic. But the point remains, we could have done with that extra MP between 92-97.
256.I agree MTF, and its very unhealthy to try and push them out of their own party in this way. Despite being a Eurosceptic, I find that attitude uncomfortable.
I’ve just noticed that Ladbrokes are offering 200/1 on Bob Ainsworth being the next Labour leader.
Has a defence secretary, especially a war time one, ever been held in such widespread contempt?
248. Ha-hah!
Normally my answer to both queries would, of course, be Yes and Yes. Which is no doubt why you posed these predictable questions.
But you catch me on a rare quiet night in and all I have drunk is a couple of glasses of expensive Merlot, and the only women I have recently seen have been on the sixth series of House, DVD, part two. I fancy the cheekboned blonde who tups with the Aussie.
Moreover, my point is good. Let’s face it, someone of “average intelligence” (and most women are of average intelligence) is thick as a plank in the sawmill of stupid.
50% of the world is DIMMER than that.
Makes you wonder about democracy. And the enfranchisement of women.
254 Bercow’s political journey. At the time in 92 it is rather hard to think that he would have felt much sadness over Patten’s defenestration. It was ironic you mentioned it.
260
One word then four Tim, Its getting better by the day, with a bit of luck you will be down to 0 words very soon.
“If they stick consistently to their views throughout they will fall in and out of favour with the policies of their party”
Certainly not a descriptioon that could be applied to Bercow.
266 - ????!!! Er…
266 - Now you are counting the words of other posters thinking they are me.
You really are the dimmest simpleton who posts on here.
258. Sorry - apart from perhaps a brief period in the early 1970s I can’t think of any period in the last 100 years when someone expressing Bercow’s views could really be considered a Conservative, and certainly not a Tory.
Is there a Brown/Obama press conference?
I doubt it, somehow.
The consequences of Farage winning against Bercow would almost certainly result be a change to the rules regarding the election of the Speaker. This would be beneficial.
I am usually a Tory voter and hold a view on Europe that coincides with the current Tory leadership (in so far as it has been set out in detail!). I still think that the House of Commons would benefit from having a UKIP MP. It just won’t be me that votes UKIP in.
Most people attacking Farage for standing in Buckingham are doing so because they see his candidacy as being damaging to their own view of what the Tory party should be.
I think we should see Farage’s strategy from the viewpoint of his own party and political objectives and comment accordingly. Once this is understood it will be easier to assess the impact on other parties and the ‘constitution’.
263 The good people of Enfield Southgate,on May 1st May 1997,showed the then-Defence Secretary the door in more ways than one.
Bob Ainsworth is getting some very personal abuse on here from those who would doubtless cry foul if a word was breathed against their party-talk about moral hypocrisy!
272
I agree on both you substantive points regarding the effect on the position of Speaker and the effect of UKIP MPs elected to Parliament. Unfortunately I do still think that in spite of what I might wish, Farage will fall short of beating Bercow. But I do think it will be closer than people are suggesting.
270 - “…could really be considered a Conservative, and certainly not a Tory.”
What does this mean? Are you reverting to a definition of “Tory” as right wing of the Conservative Party? And advocating that all “non-Tories” should actually be got rid of?
270
All parties evolve, none more so than the Conservative party. Hence it’s success.
273. West Ham Patrick
Portillo was an arrogant arse, although to be fair to him he took defeat and personal humiliation well.
That Shadsy is offering 200/1 on Ainsworth being the next Labour leader shows that the view that he is rubbish extends throughout the Labour party as well.
Unfortunately some soldiers in Afghanistan are likely to die because of this.
The Telegraph has a story that could make tonights poll findings out of date
Scots, Libya & UK contrived on the medical evidence. Libya paid for the doctors that provided the 3 months or less estimates, which were so different to the July findings.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/6143073/Revealed-Libya-paid-for-medical-advice-that-helped-Lockerbie-bombers-release.html
curiouser & curiouser
269
Eas mistake to make Tim, It had all your hallmarks Apologies to John O.
278. Jesus. If that story stands up, it is just catastrophic for Labour and the SNP. So much for Nick “eat my feet and my head as well!” Palmer and his “this story isn’t gaining traction”.
I make this about the tenth day in a row that McGrahigate has, one way or another, significantly featured in the news. It was also on Fox News primetime (I might add) - “this is how the British justice minister betrayed Americans”.
If they can prove two of the doctors were paid by Libyans that could be the smoking gun that requires a resignation. Or worse.
275. Let’s just say I’m delighted to see the likes of Bercow, Patten, Heath, Ian Taylor and sundry MEPs no longer in the Conservative ranks. Through retirements, natural wastage and defections the Conservative Party has got rid of a group of people that caused it enormous damage over the last thirty-odd years.
As for what ‘Tory’ means, my concept of it refers to some basic very long-term instincts which it’s usually pretty clear whether an individual has or not. All of the above didn’t/don’t.
278. Wow!
206.’by the time of the GE, when party loyalty is at its highest UKIP & Farage will be seen as the enemy.’
Ted.
I am just ahead of the curve.
261 - I know it’s the NotW however, if true, surely this is a big story?
278 Ted
The revelations that Libya paid for doctors to provide medical evidence on Megrahi’s life expectancy will increase public suspicion of a conspiracy and may well affect polled views on whether MacAskill made the right decision.
However, I still don’t think that we have found a smoking gun. I understand that it was Libya that made the application for Megrahi to be released under the PTA and not Megrahi himself. If this was the case then would it not have been Libya’s responsibility to pay for all legal costs including the costs incurred in obtaining expert opinions? Perhaps a lawyer can comment.
So, Brown looks ill and depressed. The Megrahi decision looks dirty. Both stories column inches and confirm prejudices without giving reliable information.
285
Correction: both stories column = both stories cover column
284, I strongly suspect that the NOTW story is not true. As with all security service stories it is easy to print pretty much what you want as the policy of the security services is not to reply. If even a small part of the stuff on the web about UKUSA is correct the intertwining of intelligence collection would make it very difficult for one of the parties to hold back info from the others.
284. Pathway is the operation Bob Quick ballsed up.
284 It is - the more the Megrahi story unravels the more US Government & associated agencies will decide less co-operation with Gordon.
Obama does not heart Gordon. The US military believe the UK failed in Basra and resolution only came when the Iraqi & US forces came in and took control. The US aren’t impressed with the political guys in the MoD (hell even we aren’t) nor with many of the senior generals in the Army. Now it becomes clear that the British Government was making every effort to free the murderer of 190 or so US citizens in return for oil deals.
289 Gordon on my mind - first sentence should end “less co-operation with the UK”
278. Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the previous narrative “doctors estimated in July that he could live for 8 or 10 months, but at the beginning of August the Chief of the Prison Medical Service, after consulting a specialist, decided he would live for only perhaps 3 months”?
Does anyone else recall three extra doctors?
It’s reaching the stage where the public cannot tell what is or is not the truth. And since the story keeps changing it’s not unreasonable to conclude that the whole thing is based on lies, distortions and opportunistic politics. It disgusts me.
285. Sure. But it’s the details which could be the smoking gun:
“In June and July [doctors] had concluded that Megrahi had up to 10 months to live, which would have prevented his release.”
But then suddenly there is a new examination. At which point:
“Professor Karol Sikora, one of the examining doctors and the medical director of CancerPartnersUK in London, told The Sunday Telegraph: “The figure of three months was suggested as being helpful [by the Libyans].”
??!!
He adds:
““To start with I said it was impossible to do that [give a three-month life expectancy estimate] but, when I looked at it, it looked as though it could be done – you could actually say that.” He said that he and a second doctor, a Libyan, had legitimately then estimated Megrahi’s life expectancy as “about three months”. A third doctor would say only that he had a short time to live.”
To go over it again. In the summer a panel concludes Megrahi is not in immediate danger of dying, he has ten months or so. In that light he so cannot be released on compassionate grounds according to Scots law. i.e. because he has more than three months to live.
Suddenly a month or two later a new panel concludes he HAS only got three months to live. This panel comprises one doctor who REFUSES to say he has three months to live, one doctor who is APPOINTED by the Libyans themselves, and a third doctor who at first REFUSES to say Megrahi has three months to live but then “changes his mind” after the Libyans “speak to him”.
TSK.
“Gordon Brown admits government spending must be cut”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6823351.ece
I guess we will not get quick or clear responses from the ‘Nits’ tonight. They will all be waving Saltires in celebration of their compassionate release at the hands of the Macedonians.
292 - Karol Sikora is doing a very good job of discrediting himself and has been for a while.
http://nhsblogdoc.blogspot.com/2009/05/karol-sikora-pissing-into-nhs-tent.html
“Gordon Brown vetoed Libyan payout to IRA victims
GORDON BROWN personally vetoed an attempt to force Colonel Muammar Gadaffi to compensate IRA bomb victims because it might have jeopardised British oil deals with Libya.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6823348.ece
Also from the link:
“The Sunday Times has established that Straw wrote to Brown warning the Libyans might block a multi-million-pound BP oil deal unless the bomber was released. The disclosure contradicts remarks Straw made in a newspaper interview published yesterday in which he insisted there had been “no paper trail” to No 10.”
296
The effluent is building up by the reservior full. I dont think the media are going to let this drop. Labour are being attacked daily.
296 Good grief.
O/T but another article in the Telegraph is worth going to and watching the video.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/6139806/Daily-Telegraph-writer-mauled-after-entering-lions-enclosure.html
295. Is that meant to help your government’s case? That they hired - or allowed the SNP to hire - some allegedly nutty doctor to do the all-important assessment of Megrahi?
Even the smear-machine has gone wonky! It’s smearing itself! Lawks amercy!
292 SeanT
Yes it is very dirty. But no more than you would expect in an adversarial legal system. I am sure there are many instances in which lawyers acting for ill prisoners have said to expert witnesses: “Is there any way you can argue for a three month prognosis without compromising your professional code of ethics?”. “Well we could argue … “.
The only reliable evidence would be from an independent expert appointed and paid for by a judicial authority. I simply don’t know if that happened as I don’t have the facts in front of me.
I am not being an apologist for MacAskill here. I would not be averse to finding the smoking gun!
294. OK, Seth if you want a quick response from a ‘Nit’ (that is to say, a non-Unionit), here’s mine -
1) I don’t believe this is the first time we’ve heard talk of Libyan money being involved in Megrahi’s examination - it rings a bell from several days ago.
2) I’d want to see a slightly more objective analysis of the ‘facts’ than that present by the Sunday Telegraph before I can conclude this is of any significance whatsoever.
3) Even if the doctors were ‘paid for’ by Libya (and call me cynical, but I’m not simply going to take the Telegraph’s word for that), it does not follow that Megrahi’s life expectancy was not estimated in good faith. As the article makes clear, two of the the three doctors were UK-based.
296. Well what do you expect.
What happens to the SNP doesnt much matter to me but what happens to Labour does and this story over Lockerbie is only getting worse for them.
I hope those people who knocked on this being an SNP only story have now at last got the point.
278-285
The Telegraph story is bunkum. The advice on three months to Macaskill was not provided by Lybian doctors but by Dr Andrew Fraser , director of health of the Scottish prison service.
This story was completely ventilated last week in Scotland when the American relatives first asssumed that Megrahi’s doctor was a Lybian because he was described as “his doctor”- in fact he was his NHS primary care doctor acting with a consultant oncologist also NHS. What the Lybian paid doctors said was totally irrelevant. It is not what Fraser based his advice on.
The Sunday Times story, however is much more interesting and clearly cointradicts what Straw said - if true of course.
302. If it’s not the smoking gun it’s certainly a gun with a whiff of smoke about it.
Add that to the Jack Straw stuff. Hmm… Begins to look quite grisly. And of course the Americans are still pretty angry.
Brown Relaunch Abort. Abort. Abort.
I have spoken too BRITISH people this evening who think we should cave in to the terrorists - they are wrong and extreame! F*ck them!
And here come the warm Nits, desperately defending their sorry apology for a pretendy government, now reviled around the world, except in terror-lovin’ Libya.
Good work, jockos.
305. Are you sure, expat?
The Sunday Telegraph seem pretty convinced of their story. More details here:
http://tinyurl.com/lsf52x
Perhaps you should sue everyone.
308. “except in terror-lovin’ Libya.”
And in the Mandela household of course. But, hey, who takes note of what one of the most iconic figures of the last hundred years thinks about this?
Well, actually, much of the world does take note. The fact that they are largely not Americans does not lessen the significance of that fact.
296 Oh my God!
Time for Brown to up the dose of whatever meds he’s taking…
SeanT September 5th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
It means life support turn off! THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN WAY of life! We are all doomed! The folks who went below the sufice may surfivive! Otherwise they will burn in the sun!!!!
SeanT = Fringes of society
Ezio = The King
305 As Yokel points out the important story is the UK Government but on the SNP’ Government the Telegraph has more than one article on this - in the fuller one on the doctors:
“When Mr MacAskill announced on August 20 that Megrahi would be freed on compassionate grounds he was relying on a report from Dr Andrew Fraser, the director of health and care with the Scottish Prison Service, which said that the prisoner’s health had “declined significantly over the last week [26 July to August 3]”. That was an apparent reference to the report by the three cancer experts submitted on July 30.”
they also say “Megrahi’s application for release on compassionate grounds was discussed at a meeting between Libyan officials and Kenny MacAskill, the Scottish justice secretary.
It is understood that Mr MacAskill’s staff then provided the Libyans with advice on how to proceed.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/6143966/Lockerbie-medical-experts-were-urged-to-predict-bombers-early-death.html
BNP going on question time:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6823364.ece
305. expat: “The Telegraph story is bunkum. The advice on three months to Macaskill was not provided by Lybian doctors but by Dr Andrew Fraser , director of health of the Scottish prison service.”
Oh dear. It seems the Sunday Telegraph knows this, but also has the background:
“When Mr MacAskill announced on August 20 that Megrahi would be freed on compassionate grounds he was relying on a report from Dr Andrew Fraser, the director of health and care with the Scottish Prison Service, which said that the prisoner’s health had “declined significantly over the last week [26 July to August 3]”. That was an apparent reference to the report by the three cancer experts submitted on July 30.”
All three cancer experts were paid by the Libyan government.
308
So tell me Sean, do you actually believe that the Libyans were behind the bombing of 103? Or do you not think it more likely that the release of Megrahi was actually designed to prevent the appeal going ahead which would have shown what a crock the whole prosecution was?
Surely any conviction based on the witness evidence of a man paid 2 million dollars by the US government to make his claims has to be just a teensy weensy bit suspect?
204 - James, you have been pushing this viewpoint heavily over the last few threads.
You wouldn’t be trying to get this to gain traction would you? …….
309
Dead sure. I’ve read the Telegraph story. They are completely wrong.
The advice to Macaskill came from Dr Andrew Fraser , Director of Health of the Scottish Prison Service. He relied on the most recent examinations from the primary care doctor in consultation with Megrahi’s NHS consultant.
The views of the Lybian paid doctors and why they gave them is irrelevant.
The Telegraph miss this bit out!
The Sunday Times story looks much more interesting since it contradicts Straw and involves Brown.
315. “It is understood that” - weasel words from the Telegraph. Let’s see the evidence. “Provided the Libyans with advice on how to proceed” strikes me as deliberately ambiguous language in any case that could mean a lot of different things.
309. Sh1t! The details there are more damning than in the previous link. It stinks. He almost goes so far as to say “you can’t really say how long someone’s got, except when interested parties pay you to be helpful to them.”
317
The clue to the Telegraph error - actually deliberate distortion - is the use of the word “apparent”.
Fraser was not “APPARENTLY” referring to the view of the Lybian paid doctors but the early August examination of the primary care doctor (NHS) in consulation with the oncologist (NHS).
ALL OF THIS WAS TRAILED OVER IN SCOTLAND LAST WEEK. THE TELEGRAPH STORY IS NOT NEW JUST A DISORTION OF AN OLD STORY.
I repeat the Sunday Times story is mcu much more interesting.
320. Yes, try and divert attention onto Labour.
Tish tish. Let’s face it, both London AND Edinburgh are now chin-deep in shyte on this one. Looks bad.
318. I have no real opinion on his guilt or otherwise, other than that his appeal should have been allowed to proceed, for the sake of the victims - which is another reason to have kept him in jail, or in a secure hospice.
This Al-Megrahi stuff is really odious and vile.
If Brown had just admitted it was odious and vile, and said, sorry, it stinks but sometimes we need to do crap things in the British interest, it might have just been OK.
As it is, Labour have covered up and been caught in provable lies. Brown said “no deal on oil” when Straw says the opposite. Straw says there is no paper trail (what a strange phrase?), but there is one, leading straight to Gordon Brown. Now it turns out Gordon Brown is personally responsible for preventing compensation to victims of IRA terrorists.
Seriously. I mean, seriously.
To all Labour MPs: please get rid of him. It is in your self-interest to save dozens of seats. But it is obviously in Britain’s interest too. Do the honourable thing. Kick him out.
316. Oh Lord. That’s going to be a gruesomely po-faced self righteous circle jerk. They’d better put on someone who’ll actually take the piss out of the fascist.
Congrats tim on the Oudin tip. I’d considered it prior to your suggestion and decided against it, but it came in
“How Labour plotted to smear daughter of new army chief… whose only ‘crime’ was to work for Cameron”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1211457/Plot-smear-daughter-new-army-chief-Defence-Secretary-s-aide-horrified-talk-exposing-job-Cameron.html
319 my ramblings won’t make anything gain traction! i just think it’s interesting & in all likelyhood the truth. Brown may be led away by men in white coats, like many have thought for years he would.
“Psychologically flawed” . And that was the view from his own side.
320, 321
Truth or not is hardly te point though. As with the entire history of this episode it comes down to following the smell.
It is a highly emotive issue and one that (regrettably it must be said) the stench is more important than who actually made the stench, or indeed if the stench is anything to do with anyone at all.
However, the SNP will be just fine as they are not a busted flush and are a generally popular bunch of guys and gals, they will take the hit of negaitve publicity (true, made up, or otherwise) on the chin and move onwards and, most likely, upwards.
Labour however…. not so much
All the sh!t will stick to Labour on this one, every fetid stool.
324
The point being that the prosecution had continually come up with reasons to delay the appeal (it was supposed to be heard at the beginning of this year.) They were running out of reasons and this was a perfect way to make sure it would never be heard.
Remember that for release on compassionate grounds it was not necessary for the appeal to be dropped. That only applied if it was a prisoner transfer. So why was it?
I agree with you that the whole thing stinks - just not quite in the way you are claiming.
323. Well, if that’s the case, why on earth would the Libyans be shelling out money to cancer specialists to have a look at Megrahi, if their opinion is irrelevant to whether he was released or not?
Does that make any sense to you?
Me neither.
Let’s look at events. Three cancer specialists are paid by Libya to examine Megrahi, some are leaned upon to pronounce in a certain way favourable to his release; soon afterwards, Megrahi is released , following the favourable advice of certain cancer specialists.
But apparently there is no causal link.
*stifles laughter with unfortunate small haggis shaped like Alex Salmond’s wife*
From the link:
“And The Mail on Sunday has established that Mr Joyce was also disturbed to hear Labour colleagues discuss Sir David’s 25-year-old daughter, Joanna Richards, who recently became Mr Cameron’s diary secretary.
Well-placed sources say Mr Joyce feared Labour was preparing to deploy more smear tactics against General Richards if he stepped out of line like General Dannatt.”
“..They’d better put on someone who’ll actually take the piss out of the fascist….”
Or to phrase it another way, the democratically elected politician. Politicians time would be better spent in working out why the BNP are hoovering up WWC votes than sneering at the BNP. They can only thrive in an environment that allows them to. That environment has been provided by 12 years of Labour.
328 - Labour really do not grasp why people hate them, do they?
318 There were two planes bought down by bombs planted in suitcases - Pan Am Flight 103 on 21 December 1988 and UTA Flight 772 on 9 September 1989.
There was evidence of Libyan involvement in both, more so perhaps in the latter. Libya had placed bombs in Berlin previously and may have put a bomb in another UTA flight that detonated after landing in Brazzaville 5 years previously. Libya was a key country supporting terrorist groups and itself involved in funding and training.
320
Not just no opinion Sean T but little or no knowledge.
All of this Lybian dcotor stuff was trailed over and over in Scotland last week. The Telegraph story is distorted old news. There was a even a full statement dishing this idea last Monday or Tuesday.
They are depending for their story on little of the detail being known down here to present an old tale as if it were new.
It’s the total lack of self awareness that gets me:
“When the expenses were released they showed that General Dannatt had claimed a total of £19,291 between April 2005 and March 31 this year, compared to £394,306 in Commons expenses claimed by Mr Ainsworth and £454,324 claimed by Mr Jones between 2004 and 2008.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1211457/Plot-smear-daughter-new-army-chief-Defence-Secretary-s-aide-horrified-talk-exposing-job-Cameron.html#ixzz0QGjiJEOq
327 - 9/2 was just silly odds and I hedged my stake at one set all leaving a very nice profit.
Sharapova is so overrated 1/6 was bloody insane.
297 Surely if this story is true, Straw must resign as it flies in the face of the “no paper trail” he claimed yesterday.
This just gets worse and worse for the Gov’t.
BTW, has Jack “Accountancy is not my strong suit” Straw now been officially excused for over-claiming Council Tax for several years in succession, or is he still under investigation?
Sunday papers looking unremittingly grim for Labour yet again then?
332
SeanT Your plot seems to have been lost somewhere. Can’t even understand the last reference.
Never mind I’m sure the Telegraph will come up with a new distortion some time soon.
330. “Truth or not is hardly te point though. As with the entire history of this episode it comes down to following the smell.”
Well, to pursue that analogy a bit further, we also need to consider the very real possibility that a right-wing newspaper has simply let off a stink bomb, pointed at some people they don’t much care for and said “it was them”. I’ll be genuinely interested to see if there’s any story here at all, once the Telegraph’s agenda has been stripped away. The amount of weasel words in their ‘reporting’ is almost funny - “it is understood that”, “British and Scottish officials appear to have thought“, etc, etc.
336
Actually there was evidence of Iranian involvement in both - far more substantial than the tenuous Libyan links. But at the time the US Government didn’t want to target Iran but had a hard on for Libya.
Libya was no whiter than white country but that of course is what made them the perfect country to blame for 103.
328 They are not disliked nearly as much as they deserve to be.
341 - So it would seem.
345 - good point.
335 Not everyone hates them, look at the Plymouth result this week.
They are recording 26-28%, that is a lot of people! They can only go up.
SeanT = Smearbot
334. Well yes. But elected politician or not, Nick Griffin is a risible little man. I’m fed up of articles treating him like the second coming of Mussolini, as opposed to a rather grubby demagogue who is enjoying some electoral success off the back of an appalling government.
But this is purely about a Question Time appearance. And it would entertain me far more to see Griffin look foolish than for a serious discussion of how Labour are failing their natural constituency.
328. Labour have gone beyond your average hated useless government-after-three-terms into a new realm… they are now physically sickening.
Just…. grotesque. You feel like you need a shower every time you read about them.
Moreover, you can now believe almost anything you read about them, because the truth is so vile. If I saw in the Mail that Brown’s aides were caught trying to plant child p0rn in George Osborne wife’s computer I’d just nod and think, well, yes, of course, that’s Labour, that’s what they DO.
348 Why can they only go up?
333. Is Damian still working for Labour?
343 its an emotive issue, as I said. There’s a lot of nonsesne amongst the grim realities of it all.
The SNP, for me, would be best advised running for the hills on this one. Whilst the heat is on Labour, they are still rather too close to a UXB.
Difficult decision made, people p!ssed off, has to be done if you are in government, get the hell out of Dodge.
Leave Labour to die in a pool of their own filth and all the crap we now all too readily believe of them.
New post on new Scottish poll
I see the official biographer of president obama(richard wolffe has said that obama has praised david cameron for ‘energy and verve’but gordon brown failed to impress and found him ‘dour and lacklustre’.This comes from the OFFICIAL biographer who was given unrivalled access to the president during the election campaign and beyond,so this just proves the lies the left wing labour supporting newspapers tried to say that obama called cameron a lightweight,total bullsh*t from labour,but what’s new.
“Dr Andrew Fraser , director of health of the Scottish prison service.” is in no way qualified to say if someone has 3 months to live from prostate cancer. He would have to speak to a cancer specialist
and the Telegraph say
” Professor Karol Sikora, one of the examining doctors and the medical director of CancerPartnersUK in London, told The Sunday Telegraph: “The figure of three months was suggested as being helpful [by the Libyans].”
But in any event headlines like this from The Times must be deadly terminal for Brown
“GORDON BROWN personally vetoed an attempt to force Colonel Muammar Gadaffi to compensate IRA bomb victims because it might have jeopardised British oil deals with Libya.”
Such a decision is just plain indefensible.
And as others have said the fact
“that Straw wrote to Brown warning the Libyans might block a multi-million-pound BP oil deal unless the bomber was released.”
is yet ANOTHER exposure of Labour and Brown just plain lying to the British public.
PS - Browns remark in a letter ““I know this is not what you will have been hoping to hear from me” will be familiar to him as it was used by the Secretary to Edinburgh University when turning down another one of Rector Browns hairbraoined requests.
And don’t forget a LOT of UKIPPERS read ConHome, and a poll about Bercow vs Farage would be bombarded by them. I’m surprised it wasn’t 99% for Farage.