What will this chart look like on polling day?
December 30th, 2009
How electorally sensitive is the price of petrol?
The above chart shows the average pump price for standard unleaded petrol over the past three years and one thing is striking - the high point in price in July 2008 coincided with the Tories achieving their best poll shares since the 1980s.
The price dropped sharply in the second half of last year and reached a low point in December at about the same time as most polls were pointing to a big closing of the gap with ComRes having it down to one point and ICM four points
So how critical in terms of votes is the price of petrol and what could be the impact if unleaded moves back to July 2008 levels or even worse?
A secondary issue is whether all constituencies are affected equally or are the English middle-sized towns, where many of the marginals are, going to be hit more. For it’s in these places where public transport can be very limited and where the motor car is much more important.
With several papers reporting this morning that petrol could rise to £1.25 a litre then changes in the above chart could be a key election predictor.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
A big blue sea between the TOries and Labour
281. I got 21/24 - missed “Republic” from one and missed 2 others totally.
Petrol at 86p a litre… will we ever see that again? ever?
With the increase in prices recently I’m not sure the link is quite as strong. It is something that we all like to moan about but does it truly affect voting intention?
Mind you, let’s not forget during the fuel strike, I do believe that William Hague was actually in front in the polls, so it may have some effect.
What was the price of fuel, when they People’s Fuel Lobby started their blockade?
Aha, OGH picks up on one of my pet polling points.
Whilst petrol was the headline issue, food prices were also rising sharply in the summer of 2008. Inflation is taking off again, and I suspect that if Gordon goes long (may/June), it will cost him very badly electorally as this concern bubble sup again. The big difference from 2008 now being that most people realise that they are not going to get a pay rise this year. And probably not next. And those are the lucky ones who don’t get a pay cut. Inflation is going to show a direct correlation to people having a poorer standard of living.
5 ONe should factor in the RPI-an excellent site shows the historical value of the £ in purchasing terms since 1750-FWIW,I recall £1 in 1999 would require £1.30 in 2009 to retain the same purchasing parity
4 Hague did lead in the polls-for one to two weeks
I think it will also instigate a double dip recession as folk see their disposable income squeesed - the ’secondary oil shock’! Long predicted by me! Gordon Brown is utterley dishonest in the way he goes on about recovery - it will not happen due to his policies.
Outside factors beyond the UKs control will just compound things. This country is very sick indeed and will suffer due to the secondary oil shock. The increase in VAT will clobber 33 Million motorists, even allowing for immigrants who cannot vote legally. That does not sit pretty with going to the country within 6 months, oil is continuing to go up in price edging up toward $80 dollars. A cold Northern hemisphere winter will I should imagine push the price more than usual plus countries other than the UK recovering. The fall in the pound also means that because oil is $ dollar valued the shock price comes sooner especially with extra duty on fuel.
Gordon Brown has today been told he should resign directly or indirectly by Two Labour MPs; Charles Clarke and now Barry Sheerman.
2 Sunil, good effort!
So far in 2009 there have been 28,987,009 page downloads on PB and we should pass the 29m mark this evening.
In 2008 the total was 22m so we have seen a massive increase in traffic in the past twelve months.
Looking at Brent crude, the price is consolidating around $77 per barrel. If - and WHEN - it breaks out , it will either go back down to $55 or up to $90-$100.
meanwhile the £ sterling is falling vs the US$ - now $1.60 vs a recent high of $1.70 and a revisit of $1.4-%1.5 looks possible.
And with VAT going back up again, we will see a price rise of 2%.
So petrol costs could rise form around $1.07 to say $1.25-$1.35 by May. Inflation of c 15% in under 5 months.
Even the dumbest voter who drives will notice it.
Will it make a difference? Well any economic recovery will be slowed down…
I think it might make the difference between a big Conservative win and .. a big Conservative win…(60-100 seats?)
10. Thanks!
On topic - was Petrol really in the 80s pence back in January???
The corrolation between the SNP’s support and the price of oil (or perhaps more accurately, anticipated returns from ‘Scottish’ North Sea Oil Duty), is also pretty strong.
I wouldn’t set too much store by my predictions of the oil price (this time last year, I thought it would be about $28 due to oversupply!), but the VAT increase is one given.
Perhaps of as much concern as the oil price is the exchange rate, which may come under pressure if it doesn’t look as if the government’s taking the necessary action to cut the deficit. That feeds directly into the oil price - and indeed everything else that’s imported, especially in the short term before substitutes can be found.
13
FUEL PRICE REPORT JANUARY 2009
UK petrol prices have started to rise again after falling to less than 86 pence a litre in early January. Conflict in Gaza and the dispute between Russia and the Ukraine helped to push the price of oil back above $50 for a while and the weakening pound has contributed to higher wholesale prices.
http://www.theaa.com/onlinenews/allaboutcars/fuel/2009/january2009.pdf
Good news for those of us who wish to see peace in the Middle East…Ross Kemp is taking a look at the subject on SkyOne at the weekend!
4 “It is something that we all like to moan about but does it truly affect voting intention?”
It makes people who need to drive a lot for their living more irritable which i think is bad for whoever the incumbent is.
12 And politically, there is damn all that Brown can do to bring down petrol prices. He doesn’t have the money to spare that would allow him to cut VAT on fuel.
He had better hope that the Israelis don’t try to take out the Iranian nuclear facilites ahead of the election…unless he wants to see $150+ a barrel for oil. You have to think the clock is ticking on that one.
17
Agree.
When is the issue. Not IF.
May is a good month for starting a war…
Politician of the Year (& More)
Iain Dale 12:44 PM
Here are some more of the ‘awards’ voted by 2,200 of my blogreaders over Christmas.
Shadow Minister of the Year
1. William Hague
2. Michael Gove
3. Philip Hammond
just for tim,nice to see willie top of the hillie,must hurt son
19 Sweet!
Iain Dale’s ‘awards’ make me snigger with contempt.
21 - Why? It’s all a bit of fun.
11 - Everyone push refresh once a minute then!
(Actually don’t, the server might not like it…)
21 Especially that Alex Salmond winning one…
Once again I think Mike is taking one figure somewhat out of context. Petrol prices may have had some marginal effect but nowhere near as much as a 3.5% cut in interest rates, the price reductions in many retail outlets pre-Christmas, and the pointless VAT reduction (which Labour will shortly pay the price for) in the last months of 2008.
Similarly, whilst petrol was a factor, inflation was generally on the rise through 2008 up until September. The cost of petrol was more a symptom of what affected political fortunes rather than a driver IMO.
Now if it had been a graph of oil prices per barrel or something similar then that might be more to the point. So to answer the main question if petrol prices go up/down because the underlying oil prices are shifting significantly then that might have notable consequences politically but independently the price of unleaded on it’s own I don’t think would have a major effect.
Well it’s thruppence tomorrow night and if we have a budget the fuel duty escalator is back on and with the RPI likely to be 4%+ by then that’s an extra 5% so say another fourpence.
O/T hat tip Fees Office Clerk at Order order
December 30, 2009 at 6:48 pm
The father of the British hostage Peter Moore, released alive from captivity in Iraq, in a radio interview launched a savage attack on Brown and Miliband.
He claimed that they didn’t tell them that he had been taken hostage. Hadn’t kept them informed of any progress. Blamed them for the deaths of the security guards and called Miliband a liar for claiming that the Foreign Office had broken the news of the release to Peter Moore’s parents.
Of the four previous oil price spikes, incumbents have been elected after three of them.Although there hasn’t been an election heled during one.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/technology/fuel-inflation-new03-2005.gif
It is still a shock however to remind ourselves that William Hague, the worst leader in British political history (as proven by Patricks post this morning) was ahead for a week in 2000.
re 23 no we should leave that honour to John Loony. One and half million posts can’t be far off either.
27 Batch File
Do you know which radio interview? I am naturally suspicious of rumours coming from Guido’s comments.
re 25 jfsl do you not remember - there wasn’t a VAT reduction in petrol last year.
Hague worse than Brown?
Come on Tim, come Tim. Oh Tim….
19 - The disconnect with reality is exhibited by Dan Hannans win of politician of the year.
Hannan & Hague = Hatton and Benn.
When are we having ‘poster of the decade’?
Or is mike just going to give it to me?
29 Some 135,692 to go to 1.5 million posts….
31. Chris A - I’m talking about the general VAT Reduction which is about to be reversed.
32 - According to Patricks post this morning Hague managed to get only 30% of Tory leaning voters to turn out.
A record in British politics.
I’d imagine had Saddam Hussein been on the ballot in Iraq 2005 he would’ve managed to get more than 30% of the Sunni vote, and he was dead.
34 - The poor SNP posters would boycott this site, if Mike gave it to you.
I make that sound like a bad thing.
Mike, make Ave It poster of the decade.
19 Not forgetting Mrs.T,referring to Mr.Whitelaw,saying that ‘Every PM needs a willie’
37 There must be a hell of lot of Tory-leaning voters, then.
5
87p per litre.
I’ve often wondered about the relationship between petrol (the one price that everyone seems to know) and government popularity.
It would appear that the government’s popularity is directly affected, but think in recent years consumers have become somewhat de-sensatised. Afterall as being, ‘Green’ is the ambition of all the main parties what is the solution, reduce taxes on petrol, hardly likely who ever forms the government.
As for the Hague popularity, it soon evaporated when he and Portillo handled the event so badly. Hague’s initial response was, ‘The government shouldn’t give in’ then ‘It should’ not too clever.
39 What makes that funny is that Margaret Thatcher wouldn’t have thought there was anything funny about that comment.
37 - Saddam Hussein was dead in 2005?
So they faked his execution on the 30th of December 2006?
Basturds
38 TSE
Nonsense. Ave It is frequently funny.
“28.Of the four previous oil price spikes, incumbents have been elected after three of them”
Wouldn’t expect it to be anything more than a short-term effect - as with Hague’s poll lead.
@@@
May have been linked already
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5671266/2010-my-predictions-and-yours.thtml
but i liked this prediction from the comments:
“5. Coal will be a hot commodity, especially if temperature declines get harder to hide.”
33,yes,but it was brought back to normality with this
Worst Minister of the Year
1. Ed Balls
2. Bob Ainsworth
3. Harriet Harman
44 - I know, I meant certain SNP posters.
Curse the whisky I’m drinking, and the fact that I’m very sad tonight. I officially sold my favouritest ever car this afternoon
31 Chris A - Not strictly true. When VAT was cut to 15%, the duty on fuel (and alcohol and tobacco) was increased to make up the difference, so the price inclusive of tax stayed the same. Of course businesses can’t reclaim fuel duty in the same way they can with VAT, so that was a sneaky stealth tax increase. Now the VAT is going back up with the fuel duty staying at the higher rate, and the fuel companies will round up the rise to the nearest 1xx.9p/litre, so expect prices to go up by 3p.
Issue bound to be used by Cameron. People’s Fuel Lobby, Taxpayers’ Alliance ,Countryside Alliance all linked to Tories.
41 - Thank you Coldstone.
Thinking about it, it’s not fuel prices on their own that enrage motorists, it’s other things like really high car insurance premiums, and the perceived nature of Speed cameras as revenue raisers
41 - Thank you Coldstone.
Thinking about it, it’s not fuel prices on their own that enrage motorists, it’s other things like really high car 1n5urance premiums, and the perceived nature of Speed cameras as revenue raisers
Politician of the year: Gordon Brown. How many predictions were made this year (and last year) of ouster plots, schemes, machinations… “Brown can’t last the year,” “Labour can’t go into the next election with Brown,” “sane Labourites will see the writing on the wall and get rid of their biggest liability,” “Polly’s right, Brown must go…” Well, he’s still there. The ultimate survivor, a tenacious cockroach that no amount of political radioactivity can kill off.
12. madasafish - at risk of going off topic perhaps you can tell me how index-linked gilts (not the nsandi bonds) can be expected to behave if inflation goes mad? ie will they rocket because they are index-linked or plummet because they are UK gilts, or somewhere in the middle?
The issue of price rises will be wider than petrol. The RPI has risen by 3.1% in just 10 months and by the time of the election it could be around +5%. And this is without any interest increases. We are heading for a period of stagflation which will be more painful than the recession.
53. S&S
Well, he’s still there. The ultimate survivor, a tenacious cockroach that no amount of political radioactivity can kill off.
Will you still be saying that next June?
It’s certainly a very interesting graph - and it’s quite educational for me, as a non-driver, because petrol pump prices are something that I never think about at all. That’s maybe something I’ll have to keep my eye on now if it really does drive (no pun intended) public opinion.
53 Agree - the indestructible cockroach of UK politics - if the whole country was destroyed by nukes he’d crawl out from the rubble of number 10 unharmed.
38 TSE TY!!
44? oldnat you are one of the SNP nice guys! Actually I love all SNP especially malcolmG as you always get a good laugh with them! Its a pity the labour on here have no sense of humour!! Con gain Moray!!
56- Hey, I’m talking about 2009! He’s like Rasputin. He will eventually go down, but he’s already put up one hell of a fight. In 2010, it has to be the year of Cameron.
How on earth can the readers of Iain Dales blog think that William Hague did a better job than Baroness Warsi last year.
All Hague did was threaten to resign if he couldn’t earn more cash.Put the Tories in bed with some nasty Pro Lisbon types ue.
in Europe, screw up over Dannatt on Question Time and make a few faux witty crap attempts at PMQs.
Warsi vs Hague.
No f#cking contest Dale readers.
43 - Sorry, in Jail he’d have done better than Hague.
Dead it would be close.
55
Well seeing as most posters to this site, were predicting unemployment rising to 4 million and the FTSE falling below 3500 by now I’ll be making a note of your predictions.
As for the, of course pointless VAT cut, strange how everyone is now moaning that its going back up.
Or Not!
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article6971099.ece
59 - Yes, Oldnat and MalcolmG are top stars.
61
And he’s still better than anything your lot can come up with.
62 - Yes, it’s remarkable the effect of printing £200bn of funny money and introducing it into the economy has on the stock exchange.
59 Admittedly as a Labourite who may well NOT vote Labour next time,I hope I have some sense of humour (Must have to support West Ham ):wink:
53. I’ve just realised that some of the money that I took on Cameron being the next PM (at about 1.55 IIRC), was URW’s. Can I unvote for him as tipster of the year? He’s been very good at providing ongoing analysis of the markets and pointing out potential value - as opposed to tips as such - but in retrospect, it’s a bit silly for me to have voted for someone who I’m expecting to take money from.
Not that it matters - Morus is going to win and probably rightly so.
65 - In which case doesn’t that make the FTSE numpties on here even dafter?
(leaving aside the fact that generally stocks have risen globally not just in the UK)
61
The fact that you decry William Hague is ample proof of what a good job he is doing.
60 S&S
Sorry don’t see the cockroach analogy myself considering the nature of the Labour Party.
Remember the only real threat to his supremacy was his own pathetic party (no one else could force him out) and what went on this year was more like a wolf being savaged by a flock of sheep (as if)………
69 - Grayling and Hague, Mr Logic.
70- I didn’t think Brown would go either, but there was at least a reasonable possibility that a spirited attempt would be made to remove him. How many PB threads have there been speculating on whether Brown would be forced out because of various events and hypothetical plots against him? Many esteemed PB’ers expected it to happen. Sheer desperation alone should have driven a critical mass of Labour MP’s to stage a coup at some time during the last year or so, but Brown always managed to keep the vultures away. I’d say that’s no small accomplishment in politics, even if his victories will prove to be Pyrrhic.
65
That isn’t the reason! The reason, this is a recession of two halves, if you are in work, have a reasonable income, due to low inflation and low interest rates you aren’t worse off you may even be better off. That compares to the last recession where everybody was in it, 12% interest rates etc. you knew you where.
There are still people out there with money to spend on consumer goods and even shares.
68 - Yes and No.
Using the movement of the FTSE as a gauge to see how the economy is doing is very risky.
IIRC, the top 10 largest companies account for about 50% of the weighting of the FTSE, so for the FTSE index to go really badly down, one or more of the top 10 companies in the world has to go under.
And why is the petrol price so important for voting behaviour:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/17/where-the-next-election-will-be-decided/
Its the METTHS, stupid. Non-urban public transport, commuter-belt, voters who are likely to turnout.
62. coldstone December 30th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
“As for the, of course pointless VAT cut, strange how everyone is now moaning that its going back up. ”
That’s partly why it was unwise. It was bound to cause more ill-feeling going up than goodwill coming down.
The cabinet aren’t sheep by accident - McDoom purged most of the non-sheep over the years and gelded the rest.
75 Morus. Any thoughts as mentioned?
73. coldstone December 30th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
“if you are in work, have a reasonable income …”
You’re almost right, but the people who are content with the situation, so far as I can see, are not those in work but retired people with solid pensions. Their money goes further and they don’t have to worry about job security.
If you’re in work then there’s an ever-growing fear that you might quite soon not be. The fear has reached the public sector now as well - my girlfriend’s NHS trust was told just before Christmas to ready itself for a sharp cutback in the New Year.
73 Actually, you’re most likely not better off. One reason why unemployment has risen less rapidly than expected has been the willingness of private sector workers to take wage-freezes, (sometimes wage cuts), cuts in hours worked, cuts in overtime, in order to keep their jobs. Real wages are down, over the year.
In previous recessions, a great deal of pain was experienced by a relatively small number. Now, the pain is spread more widely, across a larger number. I’m not sure what the electoral implications are of that.
53 And isn’t that good news for the Conservatives? We can credit our opponents with too much rationality.
74 If you mean the FTSE 100 that ceased to have relevance to the British economy years ago. It is now dominated by international mineral companies and will follow the price of commodities.
26. I tend to agree with jsfl; the apparent correlation in the graph probably largely reflects the movement of other variables with which petrol prices have tended to move.
That said, fuel costs are a volatile component of the cost of living, and a highly visible one for all drivers. So I think it’s reasonable to believe that, as their movements directly add/take away money from people’s pockets, they do impact to some extent on people’s attitudes toward ‘the economic situation’.
Clearly a sharp rise in prices ahead of the election - especially one which is government-driven, can’t help Labour.
“Weak pound ’starting to reap rewards’”
“The biggest sterling devaluation since the collapse of the Gold Standard in the 1930s is starting to reap rewards, economists declared yesterday, as fresh figures showed a dramatic improvement in Britain’s current account and household balance sheets.”
“Indeed, for the first time since comparable records began in 1987, households’ net acquisitions of financial liabilities dropped into negative territory, indicating that families reduced their indebtedness in an effort to improve their balance sheets.
And while services and industrial production output were both revised lower, household disposable income rose at 5.2pc on the past year – the fastest rate since 2001.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6868271/Weak-pound-starting-to-reap-rewards.html
68 IIRC, stocks have had a negative return of 1.8% over the course of the past decade; which is fitting, given that the past decade has given us the lowest annual rate of GDP growth since the 1940s.
72 S&S
However fraught it might have seemed at the time, other than a lot of excited braying from the media and the Labour party what was the outcome?
Brown managed to get rid of a considerable amount of chaff in his cabinet (Smith, Blears, Flint etc) and flush out one of the senior plotters (Purnell) but still wasn’t strong enough to get rid of Darling and put his point man in a key roll. He didn’t have to face down his party by calling for an election contest as Major did for example. It was all noise. The fact is Brown survived by default because he is by far the meanest beast in the Labour Party and there was no credible alternative to challenge him.
It’ll be the same for the next few weeks. There will be noise but no-one in the Labour Party will really taken him on. They’re too scared and they’ll just whine some more.
If he’d been a Conservative on the other hand, chances are (especially after the 18 per cent vote share in June) he’d have been gone. So to me his achievements are hardly anything to shout home about. It’s like Goliath holding David at arms length whilst David is flailing his arms around without making a hit (to use a biblical analogy).
81 - Yes, And a couple of Banks that have largely avoided the mistakes of RBS and HBOS, and a couple of Pharmaceuticals, and the worlds largest mobile company.
80- Our friend Nick could make his post-political life fortune if he were to write the tell-all book on what exactly was going on in the PLP over the last few years, how any plots against Brown formed and fizzled, what the mentality was that caused Labour to cling to Brown until the Gotterdammerung in 2010. I would be in line for an autographed copy!
Re 85 - 18 per cent = 16 per cent?
85. jsfl December 30th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Didn’t he also survive because Mandelson stepped in at the key moment - the night of Purnell’s resignation - to support him?
Of the rumours floating around at present, the most significant imo is the one about the rift between Brown and Mandelson. Personally I can’t see what Mandelson can do about it at this stage, but maybe he can.
50 - suspicious comma problems alert
87. Stars and Stripes December 30th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
Yes. It would be fascinating to have a candid account from a backbencher like Nick, from a Blairite minister and from a Brownite.
Another reason to vote them out of office. They won’t publish before.
90. The Raven December 30th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
“suspicious comma problems alert”
Oh yes.
The funniest part of that post is the way is says “all linked to Tories” as though it has the same ring to it as “linked to Al Qaeda”.
86. Call me Mister Skinflint McScrotum-Tightener, but I’m not sure many publishers would pay hard cash for Nick Palmer’s “Tell All” biography, given that Nick Told us All about a year ago there was no conspiracy to get rid of Gordon…. because MPs are unable to contact each other during the holidays.
87.
But Nick is a decent and honorable man who would never stoop to such a thing.
I write as one who has never supported or voted Labour - and never will.
I agree with all the comments above that say there is nothing particularly praiseworthy about Brown’s lingering on as leader. Labour has long since ceased to be a political party in any normal sense. These days it’s nothing more than a platform for Brown’s vanity - a hollow, enfeebled thing that manages to trade on a bit of brand sentimentality. If Brown is thrashed at the next election he will have further use for it and will probably disband it!
87 At least Hitler had leadership skills. What made Labour cling to Brown?
31 Nope not as yet
Checked the BBC who say Milliband had a ‘moving conversation’ with the father but there again I am also suspicious of comments coming from the BBC as well.
Coldstone, thanks for drawing my attention to ‘The White War’, it is a fascinating book, and I have enjoyed reading it, if one can enjoy reading about such slaughter. It goes a long way to show the weaknesses of politics in pre 1923 Italy, as a result of the fighting against The Austrians 1915-1918.
89. MichaelK
Thats my point, the real key players (e.g. Mandelson, Harman etc) for whatever reasons continued to support him. Unless such people had turned on him (as Howe did to Thatcher) he was safe.
Re the current situation, the Mandelson rumour (unnamed source?) is just that a rumour. Mandelson has not come out and said anything publicly which supports the idea of a major rift and I don’t think he will.
Basically IMO its far too close to the potential GE date and an operator like Mandelson didn’t get where he is by not realising that. Even if Mandelson has had enough he won’t say anything. After all, he’s only got a few months to go and then he can put his feet up in the Lords.
The main problem is our media get far too excited far too soon on the first whiff of anything interesting and as such it’s very difficult to get a handle on whats really going on.
MrJones - re coal.
Haven’t you heard of global dimming? Caused by particles in the atmosphere blocking out the sun’s light. Lead to drastically lower temperatures. Think of it as a screen blocking out the sun.
Fortunately, scientists have discovered that the particulates in oil and coal are the principle cause of global dimming. Therefore, we need to immediately phase out our use of these polluting fuels, and return to a simpler, more in tune with nature, lifestyle.
Global dimming finally proves the correctness of the Green point of view, and I, for one, will be campaigning for Ms Lucas in Brighton Pavilion.
99. Neither has Mandelson come out and explicitly and convincingly denied a major rift. Why hasn’t he done that? And, let’s face it, all these stories do not materialise ex nihilo…
It seems pretty clear to me that a lot of top NuLabourites. e.g. The Lord Mandelson, are very unhappy about the Class War Crap, and they are right to be so. It is a stupid and serious error by Labour, which will redound to their disadvantage for years to come.
Labour. We Hate The Middle Classes. Official.
49. NickL
One of the reasons Labour aren’t doing even worse in the polls, is Brown’s ability to raise taxes without people noticing. Like you said, although VAT was cut or fuel, the fuel duty was put up to compensate (and of course, compaines can’t claim that back).
Now VAT is going back up, noone is talking about fuel duty coming down.
83 Gabble,
Not sure why you are getting so excited about Sterling’s fall. Anyway just for you, who said?
“a weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government.”
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/11/browns-vow-of-silence-on-sterling/
62 unemployment has been way way over 4 million for a long time. if you count it properly and not just use the government’s ‘official’ fiddled figures that they also use to measure
inflation
police on the beat
frontline NHS staff
elicopters in ‘Stan
etc etc ad nauseum
96- Maybe they just lost all confidence in themselves and their party.
97. I think the reference must be to this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1194612/GRAEME-MOORE-Mr-Brown-asked-Susan-Boyle–sons.html
So not terribly current. DM was asked about it on pm on radio 4, i think - wasn’t listening too attentively
99. jsfl December 30th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Agreed. June was the last realistic chance tbh.
Screaming Eagle, I think the top 5 FTSE companies are about 40% of the total:
Vodafone
BP
HSBC
Shell
Glaxo Wellcome
Each of those is worth more than $100bn, and there is a seriously large drop off in market cap after them.
Interestingly, none of these companies is really geared towards the UK economy in any meaningful way. (Which makes making economic predictions off movements in the FTSE even more ridiculous.)
Punter: see above post. You need to classify Shell and BP as ‘minerals’ companies to suggest the FTSE is dominated by mining…
104. Agent 99
Surely, you aren’t saying government figures aren’t 100% reliable?
108 - Thanks robert.
and yes, your final point is spot on.
99. SeanT
Why hasn’t he done that?
Because so far it has caused little more than a ripple on the political pond and to make any comment about it would just attract more attention and speculation.
I agree the New Labour faction, amongst others, will no doubt be very unhappy with the class bigotry line (Tom Harris clearly is) but they are members of the Labour Party and its not as if it hasn’t been part of their collective psychology for a very long time. Anyway Gordon’s little helper was out at the weekend telling the class warriors to get back in their cesspits.
Its probably no different to Conservatives varied views on Europe but with an election in the offing its not a deal breaker for the new Labour faction (as dumb as the class war approach is) IMO.
110 who… moi?
re 55 Richard indeed. If prices rise as much in January and February as they did in December (0.3% per month) then the RPI will be 2.0% in January, 3.7% in March and if the rise is the average of the last 4 months (0.4% per month) then the RPI increase will be touching 4% by February, and that’s before factoring in any increase for VAT.
Anyone fancy a bet that the increase in RPI will be 5% by March?
Fascnating chart. Brown is culpable for many things, and provides me at least for many reasons not to vote for him - but the price of petrol is not his fault!! Very odd apparent correlation
Cameron will not be able to bring it down short of cutting the duty, which he can’t at the moment.
Is it a coincidence then? Correlation is not causation.
114 - I’ll give you £50 at evens that it will be less than 5%
re 73 coldstone you’re far better off with inflation at 12% and interest rates at 10% than you are with interest rates at 2% and inflation at -1%
108. Except for the link between FTSE companies - especially the big ones - and pension schemes. That does have quite a direct and very personal relationship for voters.
109 Sorry natural resources. WRT British Economy and equities the only half decent measure is the FTSE 250. The FTSE 100 seems to be influenced now more by news from China than anything in the UK.
100 the global dimming effect is widely recognised and was the background to the “new ice age” scare in the 70s. And that is the problem - as it dims, it also cools. Why it is good at cutting off incoming heat but not at reflecting back earth side heat I don’t know - probably it’s all about wavelengths. So cutting down on coal may actually accelerate AGW.
94. There has already been a very good memoir from a Labour backbencher / junior minister. I would recommend A View from the Foothills by Chris Mullin to anyone wanting to understand this Labour government in office.
115 Jon C
The price of crude oil is not Brown’s fault, but so much of the petrol price is tax - both VAT and fuel duty - that it is very fair to say that the petrol price we pay at the pumps is largely set by politicians.
115 but the price of petrol is not his fault!! Mmmmm….The majority of the fuel price is Browns tax!!
91: Chris Mullin’s A View From the Foothills tells one aspect of the story: no sensational revelations, but quite a few biting observations. It manages to be very endearing and extraordinarily irritating at the same time. Chris is interested in serious politics - addressing crime problems, deciding foreign aid policy, that sort of thing. He hates the small change of politics - debating amendment 3A of clause 6 of the White Fish Act, etc.. So although he takes junior ministries in the hope of getting something interesting later, he can’t be bothered to do the job seriously - refuses to work at weekends, can’t bring himself to read the ministerial briefs, and so on. Then he wonders why he doesn’t get promoted. And yet… unlike most memoirs, the book is all about what he’d like to see happen, he worries about his constituents, and there’s not much about him - he’s quite clearly one of the good guys, and it’s unsurprising that he’s not turned up in the expenses scandal. It’s certainly highly readable.
As SeanT says, plots and such tend to pass me by. There are a few anecdotes which would attract interest, including one about Tony which still makes me shake my head 10 years later, but as Roger Harcourt says, I can’t decently tell them, at least not until the time when everyone involved has moved off the stage. Ask me on pb.com in about 5 years’ time…
“96 At least Hitler had leadership skills. What made Labour cling to Brown?”
I think people like Byers, Milburn, Reid, Clarke etc could explain the individual pieces related to them dropping out of the competition but only the goblins would know it all.
re 116 tim a bit steep for me. £25 and it’s the increase in the March RPI figures about which we’re talking.
115 - you may well be right. However, that doesn’t stop Brown from taking credit for global factors bringing down the price of oil:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7662918.stm
Chris A: I met Citibank’s chief UK economist, a chap called Michael Sullivan, 10 days ago.
His view - backed up by enormous amounts of historical data - is that the fall-off in the pound is inevitably going to lead to substantially higher UK inflation in the medium (end 2010) term. In fact, plugging all his data in, inflation of 9% at YE 2010 is by no means out of the question.
If he’s right - and I suspect he is - then Gilts (irrespective of your views on the likelihood of default) looks pretty awful value right now. Conversely, those equities with substantial overseas earnings and real (real) assets don’t look so bad.
Shell and BP anyone?
100. This can be countered by global brightening. This involves increased use of teeth whitening to enhance the reflection of the sun’s natural light….
112. jsfl December 30th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
“its not as if it hasn’t been part of their collective psychology”
That’s why the class war theme is so dangerous for Labour. The middle class expect it of them and are always half on the look-out for it. Tony Blair went to great lengths to lay that fear to rest and I’m sure is bemused by the casual way his successor has brought it back into play.
There are analagous issues for the Tories, of course
In ten years time i’m hoping to see Milliband2 on the TV saying the few years of global warming in the 90s were a kind of precursor wobble from the sun before going into a catastrophic cooling phase and that we have to tear down all the windmill farms and replace them with utra-polluting coal stations to pump as much CO2 into the atmpsphere as possible to stop the ice age.
Clarkson will be driving round in a monster truck pumping out thick black smoke and a banner saying “do your bit for the environment!”
129 The Oncoming Storm thought that Strangford maybe slightly more interesting next year now. Any thoughts?
121 - Some excerpts here, very good book
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1151645/The-secret-diary-Minister-Folding-Deckchairs—Exclusive-Chris-Mullin.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1151838/The-Department-Of-Folding-Deckchairs-Ministers-secret-diary-exposes-tensions-heart-New-Labour.html
tim to clarify I meant the March RPI figure which will normally be published on the second Tuesday in April.
Cheeky beggar David Herdson. You took 1.52 not 1.55 ! Thanks for the business.
MrJones: alas global cooling (or the next phase of sunspots or whatever) can do nothing to alleviate Hubbert’s Peak. Nor can it address the issue that a growing proportion of the world’s oil is sourced from… ahhhh… politically… ahhh… ‘unstable’… places…
Following on from Robert @ 128 (20:48).
If inflation does indeed hit 9% then we will see double-digit interest rates under a Conservative government, just a prophesied by some on this site.
130. Exactly So. Labour launching into class war is like Tories threatening to privatise the NHS. Such radicalism excites a few core supporters, but it deeply unnerves Middle Britain and confirms to many that They Haven’t Changed.
Doof.
134 - OK £25 at evens that the March RPI figure will be less than 5%.
The FTSE may be looking up at the moment for any number of reasons but endorsement of Brown’s economic policy isn’t one of them, as the market will have factored in his probable departure. Paradoxically, the only force propping up Brown and Darling is the widespread expectation of their imminent demise. A run of plausibly good polling results for Labour would lead to a market collapse.
Well HurstLlama, that may be true. But I think the blame would lay would lay with Brown, wouldn’t you?
Robert Peston is somewhat pessimistic…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/12/unstable_equilibrium_in_2010.html
Meanwhile, I’d avoid JAL if you’re heading out East for a while…
Japan Airlines shares fall 24% to hit a new record low
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8434384.stm
Whomever holds their £10bn debt is probably a bit nervous at the moment. Please let it not be RBS/HBOS….
136 True. But i don’t feel letting a load of crooks trash the entire western economy for their personal enrichment is the best answer.
124. I’m about half way through Chris Mullin’s book- it’s pretty interesting stuff. Says lots of nice things about Cameron.
HurstLlama
If inflation is high only due to a weakening pound then surely there is a limit to the effect raising interest rates has. As Mervyn King likes to say, we would need to look past the short term increase in inflation, to the decrease that would occur once the pound’s fall drops out of the past years figure.
Apologies if this has been said before, but didn’t Darling increase petrol duty to offset the VAT decrease at the start of the year. If he doesn’t now reverse that increase then this is just another stealth tax.
This is a little spooky. R5L are doing fuel prices on the late night phone in. OGH is a BBC producer and I claim my free night in the pub…
“136 True. But i don’t feel letting a load of crooks trash the entire western economy for their personal enrichment is the best answer.”
Excuse my ignorance, but who are we talking about here?
130 MichaelK
I’m sure he’s just as bemused as the rest of the New Labour faction (particularly considering his own background and current wealth) but the thing is if Labour are done for and the class war theme is seen to depress their vote even more then the New labour faction will be well placed to replace Brown and promote their candidate(s) after the defeat having played it straight up until the election. Kicking off before hand in any serious way will only damage their candidate after election defeat (should, as seems likely, that happen).
If Brown gets well and truly beaten and class warfare is generously utilised, my hunch would be Mandelson will be best placed to stick the first knife in if Gordon drags his feet about stepping down immediately.
135. I do apologise. I knew it was a bit better than 1/2 but couldn’t remember the precise decimal off-hand. I’m still expecting it to come in though!
SthLondon Nick: I think we have bigger problems than a stealth tax petrol duty increase (says the man who is just about to get a new car…)
re 139 tim that’s the March figure published on 13th April? OK?
146 - I think that was the beer duty.
I don’t excuse your ignorance.
Gordon browns new year message,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8434137.stm
152 - Yes.
151 - Do what I did, when i changed vehicles recently, and think of the economy and reduced the size of my engine by 1.6 litres.
(Granted that was from a 6 litre engine, to a 4.4 litre engine)
re 156 do you want to let PtP know, or shall I.
158 - You can do it if you like, my wife is getting jealous.
155. No Thanks
155 johnno
Dear God… he sounds awful. I had to switch off after a minute, I couldn’t bear it.
Has he not heard of a speaking device called the “pause”? He is reading from his script way way too fast, and in a complete monotone voice.
161. Wibbler - No change there then…..
155 Gordon Brown… “fewer businesses closed in 2009 than in 2008″. A touch of economy with the truth methinks..
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2009/12/gordon-browns-recession-is-the-worst-ever-for-business-failures-.html
160,I only put it up for a laugh
where’s the video of him doing his new year speech,has he learnt his lesson from his appearance on youtube 
re 159 done
157. I have just got myself a lovely 2.5ltr 4×4, perfect timing considering all the business i would have had to turn away in the snow and ice. I felt like Mr Plow off the Simpsons… But, i only pay 49p a litre for my fuel…
re 163 come on MTF say what you mean, it’s another of Brown’s damned lies.
149 The only problem with that is the Blairites are heavily represented in the most vulnerable seats up to and beyond the ranges of Tory landslide territory. So Purnell would go on a 12% swing for example. He isn’t the only one either. The bigger the Labour defeat if that is what happens then the weaker the Blairites in the PLP.
166 - I don’t pay anything* for my fuel either. The joys of an PHH/Arval fuel card from work
*Actually I do, it’s one of the reasons I have a K tax code.
Sorry, I’m sounding bitter, about paying taxes arent I?
169, it serves you right for earning a living instead of being welcomed into the loving embrace of the welfare state, you capitalist pigdog!
The excise increase covered beer, cigarettes and fuel. See this from a commentary on the 2008 PBR on the Aviva website:
“Added to this, duty on petrol and diesel will increase in order to negate the effect of the VAT decrease on fuel. There was nothing to indicate this increase would be reversed when the VAT rate returns to it current level, meaning this will represent a real terms increase in duty from 1 January 2010.”
This is effecrtively an unannounced and delayed increase in fuel duty.
Haha, Brown’s broadcast is very Soviet.
172 - It made me think of Private Eye’s decrees of the supreme leader
167 Its probably not a lie per se, it might actually be true, but it misrepresents the real truth of whats actually going on in the British economy.
173, aye, they’re one of the things I’ll miss, having let my subscription expire.
Lists pave the way to victory! [In the case of my space cannon ammunition list, this is true].
174 - So you mean it’s a Brownie.
Extraordinary documentary about the Tsunami, on C4 right now. Chilling.
At the moment, Labour is like an old drunk shaking his fist at passers-by, who’ve all robbed him of his chances in life.
175 - Well Guido is threatening to publish Private Eye online for free.
178 Sean Fear. Something that seems to exemplify the slow ritual suicide of the Labour Party in Wales. A local group tried in Llanelli arranging a debate smong the PPC’s. Plaid naturally were up for it. Labour could not muster either AM or MP but rather than no show they did apparently eventually rustle up someone. Bizarrely though it was a former PPC who became well known for an article suggesting how much he hated Welsh speakers. That probably did not go down well in that seat.
I don’t understand all this talk of Class War - that nice Michael White on R5 earlier said it was all made up by the Tories as a result of Gordon’s playing fields joke, why he had rung Downing St before coming on to confirm that. No intention to major on class at all, all a put up job.
(It was Michael White at his most blatantly Labour, surprising as he usually manages at least the appearance of distance from the Downing St PR machine).
BBC not entirely neutral:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ukun8nc5Y8U
175 - I let my subscription lapse earlier on this year.
If you read PB.com, The Spectator, Iain Dale, Guido and the Mash, you realise pretty much 99% of the stuff in Private Eye has been written elsewhere, often 2 and a bit weeks beforehand.
168. Punter, Fair comment. I haven’t a clear view of which factions are at most risk but if we are talking about Labour losing 100 plus seats (as is plausible still) then I imagine all the factions are going to suffer badly (and no doubt there will be a few shocks amongst them).
As for Purnell, just as he is at risk, so is Cruddas for example. I suspect it swings and roundabouts and we won’t get a clear view of whats going on until the dust has settled. That said I doubt if that would stop the New Labour faction playing it in the way I suggested as its clear that visible divisions in the party depress the vote just as much as class warfare. So if there are divisions they will be post election.
174 -So you’re saying its true?
Obama now at 50.3 on the RCP average!
182
not far from the truth 
i just sold a bunch of contracts at $8 bough at an average of $2.80
tim
“figures from the Insolvency Service show that in the current recession nearly 27,000 businesses have gone bust. This is 3,000 more than in the 1990s recession and almost 17,500 more than that of the 1980s.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6871307/UK-recession-the-worst-for-company-failures-as-nearly-27000-go-bust-says-Conservatives.html
i tipped this market a few times in the last days — it was trading between $2.50 and $4.00. Anybody followed?
185
..it comes under the category of “treating people as fools”.
187, had a quick look for another clip from NTNON, the “Get a TV licence… it’s cheaper than a funeral” one. Couldn’t find it, alas.
It seems there will be a militant prisoner will be released in exchange for Peter Moore
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/uk/uk+hostage+freed+in+prisoner+deal+/3483437
O/T hat tip Fees Office Clerk at Order order
December 30, 2009 at 6:48 pm
The father of the British hostage Peter Moore, released alive from captivity in Iraq, in a radio interview launched a savage attack on Brown and Miliband. He claimed that they didn’t tell them that he had been taken hostage. Hadn’t kept them informed of any progress. Blamed them for the deaths of the security guards and called Miliband a liar for claiming that the Foreign Office had broken the news of the release to Peter Moore’s parents.
by Batch File December 30th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Another poster confirms that apparently this was said on the ITV news at 6.45 so best to keep ay eye on the late ITV news for verification
189 - Without looking I’d expect there are a higher total number of businesses now than in the early Eighties in particular, probably than in the early nineties, and that there will be more start ups this year as well.
And judging by MTFs answer Brown is telling the truth on 2008/9
189. That could be for two reasons though, one that it is much easier now to declare bankruptcy, and the consequences are less, and secondly, because Gordon Brown decided to give a tax free allowance for dividends on business profits, it meant taxi drivers and milk men, window cleaners etc all became incorporated, while previously they were sole traders.
The number of ‘companies’ is much higher then it once was.
or they are NO intrade bettors here at all? In which I won’t bother in the future. The intrade has become lively lately. That market triggered an interesting thread.
182- A great video! I also love how the Brits aren’t afraid to caricature themselves, with the great suit and tie that just scream “British!”
tim at 185
Data from the Insolvency Service reveals 17,500 more companies have been made bankrupt in the current economic crisis than during the 1980s’ recession, and 3,000 more than in the 1990s.
Shadow business minister John Penrose said: “Despite Alistair Darling’s attempt to cover up the truth, this confirms what many people know already.
“Far from abolishing boom and bust, Gordon Brown has handed this country its worst recession ever.
“If only Gordon Brown had acted promptly and effectively to get credit flowing again, rather than fiddling with dozens of small, complex schemes, Britain might be pulling out of recession like everyone else.”
An uncomfortable truth for you I would have thought.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Tories-Say-27000-Business-Have-Gone-Bust-During-Recession-And-Attack-Labours-Policies/Article/200912415506895?lpos=Business_Second_Politics_Article_Teaser_Region_3&lid=ARTICLE_15506895_Tories_Say_27%2C000_Business_Have_Gone_Bust_During_Recession_And_Attack_Labours_Policies
186- Looks like you’re going to lose your bet, Philippe.
189 sorry missed your previous post on same subject
198, it must be said that of the flaws that are British, an unwillingness to self-deprecate isn’t one of them.
Anyway, I’m off to polish my blunderbuss, then I’m going to be driven around the countryside by my servants whilst I see if I can bag a few chavs. Toodle pip!
no — looks like I’m gonna win it!
197. Phillipe - even if there aren’t any other Intrade betters here (I’m not), it’s still interesting to know what’s going on as it shines light on other markets that peebees may be interested in, as well as the wider picture.
Sole traders and other micro businesses probably won’t go broke until their tax payment at the end of the financial year. Also while there may be an increase in their number alot of them can probably carry on as zombie companies.
the bet was that Obama’rcp average will reach at least 50 on midday december the 31th — ET… (I’m on a mobile)
Poor old ‘bob-a-job’s shiny new armoured cars don’t seem to work to well it seems. From the Times….
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6971953.ece
197 - I bet on Intrade and your tip on the Iranian election earned me a lot of money so please don’t stop commenting.
199 - Yes you’re the third person to post that, now if you’d like to answer the points at 195.
203- I thought you only win if Obama is under 50 tomorrow…
after i tipped it here at 2-1, trades were made at 3-1 …
209 - Over
210 - I got on at various levels averaging 7/4 ish, but wouldn’t have looked if you hadn’t pointed to it.
I can’t seen any 2009/Q4 figures so it’s difficult to say whether Brown is right or not.
However, it looks as though business insolvencies are generally up in 2009 on 2008 but compulsory insolvency is down in 2009/Q3 on 2008/Q3.
http://www.insolvency.gov.uk/otherinformation/statistics/200911/table1.pdf
i bet against him in early november when the market was giving him 60% chance. But did not tip that bet here. Then i bought back at 2.50 what i had sold at 6.00
213.
On a closer look, Brown is going to be wrong.
208 - Tim, looking at a briefing email I get sent at work, upto the end of q3, new company registrations in 2009, were at an all time low.
Implying companies that go bust aren’t being replaced.
213
Its always difficult to see if Brown is actually telling the truth.. so much smoke and mirrors, the list of Brownies is legendary.
With apologies for the delay, but I was called down to supper
141: robert December 30th, 2009 at 8:59
“Well HurstLlama, that may be true. But I think the blame would lay would lay with Brown, wouldn’t you?”
Oh, yes, but then I am not one of those who will be on here screaming, “See I told you so”
145: JonathanD December 30th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
“If inflation is high only due to a weakening pound then surely there is a limit to the effect raising interest rates has. As Mervyn King likes to say, we would need to look past the short term increase in inflation, to the decrease that would occur once the pound’s fall drops out of the past years figure.”
I fear you misunderstand the role of interest rates and how they are set. This will have nothing to do with what the Bank of England wants, or even what a politician wants.
It will be because the people with money to lend will demand a positive return, they will not lend money in order to make a loss. (Niall Ferguson’s, “The Ascent of Money” contains an excellent tutorial on the role of the Bond Markets in setting interests rates, if you are interested).
211/214- Good move then! It was a close shave, but it’s not surprising that Obama’s numbers would rise a bit during the holidays when people are in (relatively) good cheer and not thinking about politics too much.
This could be a complete statistical red herring. There must be many other values which would follow the same pattern as the oil price. Seasonal temperature might be a good fit as well as many others. To establish a statistically significant trend you would require a lot of supporting evidence. This kind of error is frequent in medical research.
and i bought many more -up to 777 . I started a thread on this market in the intrade forum in early december under the *politic section*. I’m the mean looking guy with a cig.
208
ah yes the Labour party %’s trick again to dilute the impact in fact a complete reversal of the “60% increase in elicopters” argument. So that would actually be a grand total of 5 then but hey 60% sounds so much better don’t you know.
219 Stars re weight and American politicians. When did this change and why do you think? Would you for example now think Teddy Roosevelt unfit to be President.
216 - Wrong I think
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/6891049/Start–ups-in-the-UK-prosper-despite-the-recession.html
Looking at the figures for insolvencies they are surprisingly low 27,000 during the recession 16,000 in a single boom year of 2002, there are so many more businesses now.
yes — it was a coin flip, basically. But the market was giving us between 3-1 and 2-1. Any political punter Had to take that bet.
221- That’s you Philippe?!?!?! I hope that’s not the face you use to kiss the mother of your child!
218 HurstLlama,
Thanks, but can the BoE set its base rate at whatever it wants, even if this is disconnected from the bond market?
224 - Tim, New Business Bank accounts, aren’t the same as registrations registered at companies house.
i wish that someone followed me there ; it feels very good when another guy here makes money on one’s tip!
Looks like Charles Clarke read my post yesterday on Norwich South.
228 - I realise that, but looking at raw figures is a nonsense anyway.
The Tory Shadow Minister could take the 2002 figure and rightly claim that more businesses went under in the boom year than did in a year of the 80s or 90’s recessions.
He’d be right, but its meaningless as there are so many more businesses.
223- We’re in the media age. Presidents are supposed to be not only good speakers, but also tall, attractive, and in good shape physically. Teddy was not only paunchy but also wore glasses and had unsightly facial hair. He’d never be elected today!
Did anyone else note that Labour are keeping the new high-speed rail route secret until the end of March?
Possible indicator of a Mar 25 election?
232 - 2010, the year of the pb babies.
229 - I would’ve done but I didn’t see the tip.
We need some more effective way of communicating these genuine betting opportunities.
I’ve joined twitter today to get Ladbrokes updates, there must be room for a PB Betting Twitter group.
M.Coxall seems to know about this stuff.
Can anyone advise.
232- I wish you, mother and baby well and the best of luck in the new year. Here’s an article you may want to read as you look forward to coming betting opportunities:
http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2009/12/29/why-the-democrats-will-lose-the-house-in-2010/
I think its a bit pessimistic for the Dems, but not ridiculous or outside the realm of possibility.
236 tim
I’ve joined twitter today to get Ladbrokes updates
The updates or shadsy’s New Year present of a free £20 political bet?
As the subject is political honesty and statistical truth …
231 “He’d be right, but its meaningless as there are so many more businesses”
Sorry Tim not buying that.
This would just reduce the % of the overall total going out of business however the ACTUAL number going out of business is higher IRRESPECTIVE of how many business there are which is irrelevant.
Its a crafty trick used constantly by Labour to make us think black is white and as I said originally sorry we don’t buy that anymore you have been rumbled.
60% Elicopters is Labours reverse MO on this of course.
227: JohnathanD @ 22:10
Yes, the BOE can set its rate at what it likes. It doesn’t mean that the markets will take any notice. If anything the disconnect between the BOE rate and what the various markets demand seems to be getting bigger.
Put in simple terms: real interest rates are determined by the Bond Market and the price people are prepared to pay for HMG’s bonds. If confidence in HMG’s handling of the economy slide, and/or confidence in sterling as a holder of value goes down, the price of bonds goes down too. In which case the effective interest rate goes up and anyone competing for lenders’ money will have to increase the rates they pay and charge. Inflation is a destroyer of value, real interest rates will therefore always be above the rate of inflation.
238 - I must admit it was a memory jog!.
Although I haven’t used it yet but seem to have missed a tweet that PtP has joined.
Thats stardom for you.
239 - As I said, more business went under in the boom years of the 2000’s than the recession of the 80′ and 90’s.
FT predictions:
Will the UK suffer a double-dip recession?
No.
Will the eurozone experience a sovereign default in 2010?
No.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd836182-f57b-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html
242 - Gabble, strange you didn’t mention this prediction from the FT
Who should I bet on in the British general election?
Forget David Cameron’s Conservatives; pity Gordon Brown’s Labour. Put your money instead on Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. No, I don’t think Mr Clegg is about to sweep into Downing Street as the leader of the first Liberal government for a century. The firm prospect – to my mind as near a certainty as you can get in politics – is that Mr Cameron will be the next prime minister. But those who fancy a wager should look at the odds on the third party.
The betting suggests that Mr Clegg’s party will lose 15 or so of its present 60-odd seats in the Commons – mainly to the resurgent Tories. My guess is that they will do better – matching seats lost to Mr Cameron with gains from Labour. So will Mr Clegg hold the balance of power in a “hung parliament”? My guess is No; an electorate that has pretty much decided to sack Mr Brown’s government is likely to give the Tories an overall majority.
241 Unfortunately, it’s become clear that there were no boom years in the 2000’s. There was moderate growth, followed by a humdingger of a recession.
Boris does optimism so much better than Gordon.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/london_mayor/2009/12/boris-johnsons-upbeat-new-year-video.html
241. tim
There were no boom years in the 2000’s.
Average annual insolvencies:
19,748 1990-1995
14,394 2000-2005
224. More businesses go bust coming out of a recession than going into one.
“Information provided by the Office of National Statistics to the FT shows that GDP, on average, rose by 1.7 per cent annually in real terms throughout the so-called noughties, Britain’s weakest period of economic expansion of any since the 1940s.
Manufacturing was particularly hard hit and, on average, after adjusting for inflation, output actually contracted over the decade by 1.2 per cent annually.”
It was a funny sort of boom.
244 - Sound like you’re pining for the recession - Lawson boom-overvalued pound -Recession - unemployment at recession levels for all but two of years of an 18 year govt.
Perhaps with Armagideonomics you’ll get it.
246 For once, I agree.
248 Absolutely. Gordon Brown abolished the boom, but we still got the bust.
Sean Fear & JonathanD
A little late in the day but I hope you will both now accept that Gordon Brown’s claim to have ended ‘boom and bust’ was correct, after all.
i hear you tim and David. Glad u did make money tim with Ahmadi’s *victory*. Hope u did not follow me however when I was betting at 9-1 that the ‘greens’ would stop the fuc*ker from being sworn into office
Thank u stars. And let me pray that all of your friends and ur wife’s family in Iran be safe, happy and prosperous in 2010…
244 No, I’m pining for decent economic growth, and low debt. Something that this government can’t deliver.
251 He got the first half of that right
251 - Indeed, instead of boom and bust.
We’re now Shit and bust.
248. Labour, consistent mediocrity followed by inevitable calamity, since 1911.
How can Labourites even show their f*cking weaselly little “faces” on this site? Everything they do, say, and think is the purest shit. They ARE the quintESSence of shit.
tim, Gabble, Roger, NickP. An outbreak of cold sores.
256 - I bow to your greater knowledge of coldsores.
253 Sean Fear
And the current economy is pining for the fjords,
253. Sean Fear: “…I’m pining for decent economic growth…”
You’ve had it for the last 11 years (but one). It was just the steady moderate type growth rather than boom/bust stop/start type growth we suffered under the tories.
Britain is a wealthy country. You would have to be decadent in the extreme to believe anything else.
253 see 180.
252- Thanks so much, Philippe. We can only watch and shake our heads.
2010 looks set to be an amazing year for political punters and junkies, in both the UK and the US. Best of luck to all!
259 - To be frank I agree with that.
Not building a million council houses to reaplace some of the Thatcherite assault on rural England and ameliorate the bubble in house prices is what I regret.
257. Indeed. I know a bit of Saigon Rose from a syphilitic canker when I see it and you are the latter. If we dip the wick of your liberal narcissism in the hooker of public spending any longer, the National Dong will fall off.
Time for Tory Restraint and Chastity.
259 Really? The lowest rate of growth since the ’40s?
A significantly lower rate of growth than under the Conservatives.
Are we supposed to be grateful for this?
So, we’re expected to believe that low growth under Labour is good, high growth under the Conservatives is bad?
266 - And that the longest and deepest recession since records began, are better than the moderate recessions of the 80’s and 90’s
259 “Britain is a wealthy country. You would have to be decadent in the extreme to believe anything else”.
Err no. Factor in the debt and the off record debt ie PFI, Pension liabilities etc and the whole image crumbles into dust in front of your very eyes.
267 Evidently.
266.
Sean, you are getting it all wrong. It’s the right kind of growth under Labour and the wrong type of growth under the Conservatives. Actual figures don’t tell you this, please pay attention.
259/268 Britain is a wealthy country, but it’s no thanks to the current government.
263. tim
I take your point but there’s a lot of empty property in the UK
“…the numbers of empty homes continues to rise. The total for England now tops 764,000 the third successive annual increase. These figures show an increase of about 3% which if repeated across the whole of the UK would see the total pass 970,000. Given that these figures are a year behind anyway, I take no pleasure in saying that we really must be approaching a million empty homes across the UK.”
http://www.facebook.com/notes/empty-homes-agency/new-empty-homes-figures-not-good-news/154526408890?ref=mf
263 tim
The critical determinant of success is not moderate growth to a predetermined politician’s plan, but better performance when compared to our major competitors. So higher differential growth in the good times and lower decline in the bad.
Nothing wrong with building affordable housing in rural communities, but why should this be done by councils? If financial incentives are needed then the government subsidise either the builders or the buyers.
Your mindset is too attuned to the socialist 5 year planning cycle. No need for Gosplan in Blighty.
265. But why are you surprised? A period of notably low growth followed by a huge recession then national bankruptcy is what Labour DO. As I understand it they put it in their manifesto. C’est son metier, as they say.
The difference between this Labour government - and all the others that ended in similar disaster - is that this one managed to kill half a million Iraqis for no reason and then get UK fascists elected for the first time.
These later achievements were indeed interestingly novel.
265 - You’ll notice that our competitors have had two recessions this decade, where Britain had one.
I wish both parties would learn the lesson that our ludicrous housing system has f£cked us for the last 35 years.
Someone the other day suggested that could be Camerons Clause 4.
As an admirer of Macmillan who built Council Housing, decent council housing, its as good a Clause 4 as any.
150 David H - You have to remember that URW didn’t get to his elevated position in the PB Tipster of the Year contest by eliding 1.52 with 1.55.
“And that the longest and deepest recession since records began, are better than the moderate recessions of the 80’s and 90’s”
Mr. Eagles,
“The longest and deepest recession since records began” is a short period of moderate recession as predicted. We have Gabble’s word for it. Do pay attention and do, please, try and keep up.
273 - I’m happy to see the Council as enabling the building planning etc, but it must be done.
tim, can u paste the link of ur twitter account? I would paste mine, but with my unthrown nokia, i don’t know how to paste urls.
Labour’s housing failure is probably due to John Prescott being in charge of it and the uselessness of his Pathfinder scheme which managed to waste a couple of billion
“So we are left with a baffling policy that has led to 10,200 houses being demolished, 1,000 built and 37,000 fell derelict awaiting the bulldozer. And for what?”
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/how-john-prescott-wasted-22bn.aspx
I like Myleene Klass even more now
Myleene Klass has criticised political correctness for “alienating” immigrants.
WENN reports that the television presenter believes people who move to Britain should make more of an effort to integrate into society.
“It is sad that we are not supposed to fly the Union Flag for fear of what that might misrepresent,” she said. “Or that we aren’t supposed to say ‘Merry Christmas’ anymore for fear of offending someone. What is all this ‘Season’s Greetings’ business? It’s so infuriating - in trying to please everyone, we please no-one.”
Klass added that her Filipino mother had successfully integrated into British culture when she arrived in the country.
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/showbiz/news/a193214/klass-criticises-political-correctness.html
280 JonathanD - Indeed. Allowing Prescott to wreck so much havoc in planning and local government is one of the many charges of which Blair is guilty.
275 tim
275 tim
our ludicrous housing system has f£cked us for the last 35 years
Failure to build enough houses to meet demand is only part of the story. It is not even the main factor in house price inflation. The economy urgently needs a large downward correction in valuation of residential housing stock. This has to precede any building plans to meet housing demand.
But which government will be brave enough to take the political hit from such a devaluation?
We need a real David to slay this Goliath.
262 Philippe - Yes, 2010 looks like being a bumper year. I’m one of those who have been very interested in your Intrade tips, but so far I haven’t played in that market mainly because of the exchange-rate risk. I’ll probably get involved next year.
262 Philippe - Yes, 2010 looks like being a bumper year. I’m one of those who have been very interested in your In-trade tips, but so far I haven’t played in that market mainly because of the exchange rate risk. I’ll probably get involved next year.
267. TSE
Why do you describe the early 80’s recession as moderate but the current one as ‘bust’?
I feel a fisking coming on
Alastair Darling
Electing the Conservatives is a risk we must not take
Tory plans to cut ‘further and faster’ would wreck recovery and roll back Labour’s many successes
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/30/electing-conservatives-wreck-labour-recovery
285 Gabble - No doubt because of the unprecedented deficit. You do realise Brown is spending four pounds for every three pounds of revenue, I suppose?
285 - Well, actually I was using your words, you said this recession was moderate.
However, facts show that this recession is longer and deeper since records began, so it must be a bust, as Brown said he had abolished boom and bust, and the ones in the 80’s and 90’s were busts, in Labour eyes.
Ergo, the recessions of the 80’s and 90’s were moderate in comparison to this bust.
288. TSE
Ah, I see. I wondered if you were talking bollocks and now I know.
286 - my favourite bit is the “We are well placed” - just thrown in as a fragment sentence in the third paragraph. They still believe it to be true.
286 TSE - Oh dear, the comments aren’t entirely supportive…
289 - That’s really unparliamentary language you cretin.
292. TSE: “That’s really unparliamentary language you cretin.”
Now, now. Remember ‘rich as creases’.
290/291 - To be fair to Darling, you can spot Gordon Brown’s hand in that article
“Conservatives plot to ditch John Bercow for Frank Field”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239515/John-Bercow-faces-new-plot-oust-favour-Frank-Field.html
293 - All i can remember is you saying this recession is moderate.
Moderate = Longest and deepest recession since records began.
And you accuse me of talking bollocks.
Let’s talk about another of Labour’s achievements, how many Iraqis died because of Blair’s shambolic post war planning?
How do you sleep at night?
294 TSE - Alas, Darling (following John Hutton’s departure the last remaining Labour minister with any degree of credibility) seems to have decided to become a Brown puppet like all the others. I really don’t understand why; he had the opportunity to emerge from the wreckage with a semblance of dignity.
295 - The Tories are making one hell of assumption.
That Bercow will win Buckingham
296. TSE
It’s certainly moderate by your definition - thanks for that.
The last couple of quarters have been pretty flat but, hey, it’s a good soundbite so I don’t blame you for using it. Just try not to confuse it with reality.
297 - I know, I really respected Darling up until the PBR.
I thought he had real balls (pardon the pun) when he refused to be moved from the Treasury in the summer.
Reading the papers from 78/79 today, you can see that Callaghan and Healey acted in the national interest, can we honestly say that about Brown and Labour now?
299 -
Facts
Brown said that the recessions in the 80’s and 90’s were busts.
The current recession is currently deeper and longer than those two recessions. So thus, this recession must be a bust.
In comparison to the current recession, the recessions of the 80’s and 90’s are moderate.
299.
So the longest and deepest recession since records began is moderate?
I have some magic beans here, I think you may be interested….
re 298. I know local Tories here in Bedford who plan to campaign for Farage in Buckingham. That’s the battle that excites them - not trying to win Bedford off Labour.
That’s why my money is on Farage in Buckingham and the Lib Dems in Bedford.
301. You are wasting your time with Gabble. I’ve posted figures direct from the ONS and he disputed them.
He is just like his leader that well known speaker of truth and wisdom James Gordon Brown. With any luck they’ll both be out of a job in a few months time.
By Gabble’s definition, the Nazi Holocaust of the Jews was a “moderate” Holocaust, because unlike previous exterminations - like that of the Giant Auk - it didn’t kill ALL the Jews.
Equally, the Labour invasion of Iraq was only a “moderate” catastrophe, compared to, say, Krakatoa.
Wasn’t there supposed to be a YouGov before the end of the year? Not expecting it to say anything amazing either way, just curious.
303 Where is your money on the celebrity candidates apart from Nigel Farage so Rantzen, Galloway and the UK’s best defender against asteroids?
303 - I posted a while back, that I have friends in the Buckingham constituency party.
They loathe Bercow, those in the know, know he was very close to defecting to Labour in 2007.
Mix into the fact, his wife has pretty much insulted all of them, and the things they cherish.
They also know, that the lib dems, and the Labour party, don’t have enough info on the seat, to try and swing it.
And if you were a Lib Dem or Labour activist, would you try and keep Bercow in parliament, when there are other seats they’d like to win/defend.
297 - You have a point if Darling has not been more specific on the spending cuts before the election.
His article however makes sense in macro economic terms, Osborne wants to go further while arguing that the recovery is fragile and yet also be unspecific in macro or micro terms.
I appreciate that there are some who want Osborne to take his chances with a double dip, Fraser Nelson et al.
It would be nice if he gave us an idea how much spending he wishes to take out and when.
If you wish to criticise Darling for lack of transparency I’d agree with you, so long as you accept it applies doubly to the 40% economist.
303 - That mindset doesn’t bode well for a party that wants to be in Govt.
309 - Does George Osborne have access to the treasury forecasts and detailed budgets?
Darling does, and he hasn’t spelled out the specifics, so how and why can/should Osborne?
FTPT
“219 “Children’s Secretary Ed Balls yesterday moved to put families at the centre of Labour’s election campaign.
He said children do better when parents stay together and pledged to do more to support married couples.””
Ted, Ed Balls is a credibility liability for the Labour party at the best of times, but this takes the biscuit.
Didn’t he end up having a spat with David Cameron in the Daily Mail over this issue on consecutive days just a few weeks ago, only that time Balls was arguing the opposite to be the case?
re 306. We have not had the Telegraph’s December poll yet and I was sort of expecting it overnight.
Also want to say that I really enjoyed Patrick’s excellent and thought provoking article earlier today.
I know the dynamics were different
But Neil Hamilton secured 55.1% of the vote in 1992 and lost in 1997
In 2005, Bercow secured 57.1% of the vote.
re 309. What economist rating Tim would you put on the man who ran the economy from 1997 to 2007. 0%?
re 315. Bercow stood in 2005 as a Conservative. This time he stands against someone who’ll describe himself as a “true Tory” with the associated problem of his spouse’s strong Labour linkage.
Bercow has got a massive fight on his hands.
317. Agreed Mike, and will I enjoy taking money from Tim? Not arf mate.
re 307. On specific seats I only bet when I’ve got a good feel or specific information.
How will Esther R do in Luton South? Don’t know.
317 - He does, I wonder if this seat will overtake Watford as the most bet on seat.
It’s certainly the seat I’ve got the most money on.
[75] - And why is the petrol price so important for voting behaviour:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/17/where-the-next-election-will-be-decided/
Its the METTHS, stupid. Non-urban public transport, commuter-belt, voters who are likely to turnout.
I think this helps to demonstrate how politically inept Labour were. It’s been said that one of the things Mrs T did to change Britain, and shift it to the right, was the right-to-buy and encouraging car ownership. Both of these create more individualised, rather than collective, forms of housing and transport.
Had Labour followed through on the rhetoric of Prescott’s ten year plan for transport, of an integrated transport system, of wanting to reduce car journeys by providing a superior alternative, how different might the political landscape look now in those METTHS?
319 I think it’ll be close for Lembit. People there are not puritanical but they are cringing at his antics. Plus the Tories have chosen their best possible candidate, a hugely popular former AM. It was telling at the last WA elections the Tories lost in Montgomeryshire in the seat but won the list where Glyn Davies was standing but he was then only undone by a surprise Tory gain in another seat. The Lib Dems have always borrowed quite a few votes from Plaid in the past as well. Against a former Plaid man that’ll be harder.
316 - It’s not a label I’ve apllied, its selef selected.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3744923/osbornes-crazy-admission.thtml
And Cameron would be wiser to appoint Hammond as CoE and let Osborne do what he spends 60% of his time on.
317/8/9/20 - Mike son has this seat right.
Its evolution.
323 - Time for bed I think, but you get the picture.
At a party before Christmas a former Bedford Tory councillor told me that he would not be working in his own seat but in Buckingham. Bedford itself is a key Tory target.
I got the feeling that he isn’t alone.
“And Cameron would be wiser to appoint Hammond as CoE and let Osborne do what he spends 60% of his time on.”
Improving Anglo-Colombian trade relations?
That’s a JOKE, Carter Ruck.
Witan
Alt + 213 = ı
(you have to use the numbers on the right of the keyboard; it doesn’t work if you use the top row)
by JohnLoony December 30th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Thanks but it doesn’t work as I have a Mac keyboard without a numeric pad. Grrrrrrr.
There must be a way ……..
326 - Well so long as Michael Fabricant isn’t involved with anglo-colombian trade relations
A Conservative MP yesterday revealed that he had been held at gunpoint by soldiers in Colombia who mistook his coffee whitener for cocaine.
Michael Fabricant, 58, the MP for Lichfield and Burntwood, was forced to gulp down several mouthfuls of Coffee-mate to prove he was not carrying drugs as M16 assault rifles and a machine gun were trained on him.
He had been trekking with a friend through mountains near Santa Marta on the Caribbean coast when he was stopped by an armed patrol. Seven soldiers searched his bag and pulled out an unmarked container containing a white substance.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/06/conservatives.colombia
I’m baffled as to why Gabble thinks its better that we didn’t have a boom before the bust than if we had had one.
Rather like getting the worst hangover ever without the drinking first.
The voice of the bunker was getting very excited yesturday about how many people were going shopping. Well it might be retail heaven in Gabble world and Selfridges might be packed out with foreign tourists but its grim on the streets of South Yorkshire. Numbers not much more than normal and the bagless outnumbering those with bags by over 10-1. The most common shopping bag seen? That well known luxury retailer Primark. Also noticed huge stacks of Moet and Tattinger champagne in supermarket entrance halls at under half price.
Looking at the things I received for Christmas or have bought since they come from:
China (multiple)
India (*2)
Mauritius (*2)
Thailand (*2)
Pakistan
Indonesia
USA
Colombia
Germany
France
Switzerland
Poland
and a book printed in the UK.
The fallacy of basing an economy on retail spending.
329 - Gabble doesn’t think. He repeats lines from the bunker
308. “And if you were a Lib Dem or Labour activist, would you try and keep Bercow in parliament, when there are other seats they’d like to win/defend.”
If Labour or the Lib Dems put more than a nominal effort in on behalf of Bercow, they’re complete fools - if Bercow loses, Cameron is one seat further away from his majority.
Sorry, a couple of threads late I know, but regarding Maggie’s ‘83 landslide - that was obtained on a slightly lower turnout than Major’s wafer thin majority in ‘92, wasn’t it?
332. According to Patrick’s chart, the 1992 turnout was 77.7%, and in 1983 it was 72.7%.
332 - yes it was.
The 1983 was a bit of a curious election, the tories had a swing against them, but still gained seats
334. It depends what you mean by a swing against them - their share of the vote fell slightly, but there was still a swing from Labour to Tory because the Labour vote fell much further.
335 - That their share of the vote fell (but Labour’s fell much furthe)
331. Labour and Lib Dem voters in Buckingham should vote for Farage to create an alternative centre-right presence in the Commons. One here or there on the majority is irrelevant.
337. I disagree with your last point. I expect a hung parliament, but even if there’s a small Conservative majority every seat is significant - if John Major had won just five seats fewer in 1992 he would never have lasted until 1997.
331. NoOffenceAlan - somehow I do not think Dave would be keen on that idea! I am sure he will do his utmost to prevent Farage’s election.
Front Pages:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Thursdays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-Thursday-December-31-2009/Media-Gallery/200912415511214?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15511214_Thursdays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Thursday%2C_December_31%2C_2009
Hmmmm… Iran is going to be an ever increasing issue I suspect:
“Revealed: hand of Iran behind Britons’ Baghdad kidnapping
• Hostage released after two years
• Shia cleric freed as part of deal
• Aid money at heart of abduction”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/30/iran-britons-baghdad-kidnapping
“UK standard of living drops below 2005 level
• GDP per person is £225 lower than in 2005
• UK living standards trail those in US by 25%”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/31/economic-growth-recession-uk
“Michael White: Change is almost certainly coming in Westminster - what will the scene at Chequers be this time next year?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/31/the-year-ahead-politics
“Charles Clarke urges Cabinet coup against Gordon Brown
Charles Clarke, the former home secretary, has called on the Cabinet to stage a New Year coup to remove Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6912519/Charles-Clarke-urges-Cabinet-coup-against-Gordon-Brown.html
“John Gummer: mole charge MP to quit Parliament
John Gummer, the former Tory cabinet minister who charged the taxpayer to rid his country estate of moles, is to stand down at the election, he has announced.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6911521/John-Gummer-mole-charge-MP-to-quit-Parliament.html
“Bruised and battered, but Salmond will bounce back”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6972178.ece
Have to say he hasn’t looked either of these, but what do I know?!?
“Cameron rues loss of his green standard-bearer”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cameron-rues-loss-of-his-green-standardbearer-1853908.html
“John Rentoul: Maybe Tories aren’t so stupid after all
When Labour was last in opposition, much of the party was obsessed with electoral reform”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-maybe-tories-arent-so-stupid-after-all-1853851.html
344- Is there any chance, or does Clarke just want to be able to tell everyone “told you so” after the election? I suppose it’s win-win.
346 SthLondon Nick
From that article, I particularly liked -
“a plan to ban under-21s from buying alcohol at offsales was watered down”
343. SthLondon Nick December 31st, 2009 at 12:52 am
What i find interesting in the fantansy nonsense from Michael white is the mention of Stoke. Lets remember that the Daily Mirror had tried picking on the Tory candidate who is a Belly dancer no less!
I think Labour could well be in deep trouble there! They fear for the seat! Of course Labour will not attack the BNP so they will pick on an ethnic minority Tory candidate! Stoke lets remember was a good performance for the BNP in 2009.
Michael White really is a buffoon even when writing his fiction of predictions for next year. How silly is it to say Cameron has not ’sealed the deal’ because he only has a majority of 34?
It meant an overall majority of 34, good enough (Margaret Thatcher won with 43 in 1979), but also confirmation of predictions that Cameron and George Osborne had failed to “seal the deal” conclusively with wary voters
To think these overpaid over-egoed hacks used to be able to get away with that sort of stuff. How to get stuck on a bunker line and not be able or bothered to think it through.
Its alright, just print it, the plebs know no better.
And are you at the Savoy tonight for Cherie’s party? No? You are off to Tuscany in the Merc. What a shame!
Thank goodness for the blogosphere.
350 - It made me laugh. He certainly hasn’t got his own way and (I know this is a controversial thing to say) but the Lockerbie bomber release wasn’t handled as well as it could have been. Whilst I don’t think it cause damage straight away it was the first controversial decision as it where. When they start to build up you end up annoying enough people just once and your popularity can fall.
351 - Martin, the BNP have described Stoke Council as the “Jewel in the Crown”. As a North Staffordshire native originally it thoroughly depresses me…
SthLondon Nick - is it being suggested that Dave is not happy with Zac carrying on as the green standard bearer?
349. Stars and Stripes December 31st, 2009 at 1:00 am
No chance and frankly given both he and sheerman are acting together maybe Brown wants this if he goes for an earlier election?!
In Gordon Browns perverted mind press releases like this destract the political circles and chatering classes. The types of Labour voter left now who will vote for Brown are probably too thick to read anything but the Mirror, they dont watch the news and vote Labour out of habit. Which this is unlikely to sink into that type of voter. Brown needs a low turnout and mention of May 6th 2010 leads me to smell a rat!
The more intellectual Labour voters are aware of the Brown problem but will fill compelled to vote Labour because they assume an intellectual supperiority to everybody and else. You have to watch these Buggers in No.10 like hawks - if they are not trying to save their MP in Stoke by smearing the Tory candidate in the Daily Mirror they are upto all sorts.
353. SthLondon Nick December 31st, 2009 at 1:06 am
I dont disagree with you but thats where they are at this time.
354 - There have been rumours about him being offered a cabinet position. He has been there before so his experience would have been ideal. Gummer doesn’t want it as he feels it is restricting and he is off to join an NGO/Think Tank (I believe) where he believes he will have a freer hand. Whilst I admire Zac’s passion he is a long way off Ministerial material from what I can see. He is just a little too naive.
Punxsutawney Martin sees shadowy motives, predicts early election! Do you at least believe it will be Brown leading Labour into the election? It sounds like you do.
358. Stars and Stripes December 31st, 2009 at 1:13 am
Yes maybe it is groundhog day!
If Brown went early say before the end of Feb then i would win money on him no longer being PM.
I dont believe Brown is about to go from No.10 = Brown will have a majority of his Cabinet behind him. Lets face facts when they are as useless as they are and owe their position to Brown they are not going to rock the boat. Indeed it could lead to Brown appointing more useless ministers to replace any desenting ones. He will probably recall Neil F*cking Kinnock next!
It is too late for Labour to ditch Brown and the longer Brown leaves it the worse it will get for Labour. Everything is running against Labour now from the Petrol price to gilt prices.
353 SthLondon Nick
Yet you need to be able to explain why polling in late October for the Holyrood constituencies by TNS /System 3 for the Holyrood constituency vote was SNP 40%, Lab 32%, Con 13%, LD 11% ; by YouGov in early Nov was SNP 32%, Lab 33%, Con 15%, LD 14% ; Ipsos-MORI in late Nov had the data as SNP 36%, Lab 32%, Con 12%, LD 12%.
There isn’t any polling data that I’ve seen that explains this, but anecdotal evidence suggests that a possibility is (especially from former LD voters) a distaste for automatically voting against SNP proposals by a minority government - even when there are only marginal differences between the aims of different parties.
Most voters are not partisan supporters of a particular party, and placing party before the people may not be a sensible strategy for parties to take.
It may be that the next GE will produce a situation where the UK parties need to learn that in Westminster as well as Holyrood. The example of their Scottish branches doesn’t hold out a lot of hope.
360 - Oldnat as I said above I don’t think the SNP has been particularly damaged by one controversial moment. However they have a habit of building up in the minds of voters. If they come up against another few, then their popularity can fall.
Look at the Tories in 79-97 or Labour 97-10. Each decision in itself did little damage superficially, however eventually there was a build up of resentment. Unpopular decisions tend to annoy another small group of people. To coin a phrase “look after the pennies etc. etc.”. At some point the amount of small groups annoyed will become a large group.
My personal feeling (and of course I am rather geographically removed) is that the SNP will equal or perhaps improve their position at the next Scottish election. They may or may not do better at the Westminster election, though voters may vote on different views (who governs the UK) or they may not. The biggest danger for any of the parties is for the LibDems. In a straight Lab-SNP fight (and that is what currently the Scottish Parliament scene is) they risk getting lost.
However one counterpoint is Goldie. From what I have heard she has been relatively cooperative with the SNP administration dealing with issues on a vote-by-vote basis, yet much of the polling evidence has shown little benefit electorally.
So I don’t think Salmond has been holed below the waterline, but government takes the shine of any political party and their leader. And I’m sure we’ll agree that Salmond stands head and shoulders above any other options in the SNP and in the wider body-politic in Scotland.
359- Thanks Martin, and I’ll bet you’re right that he won’t go. Your intuition on that one sounds very sensible. Also, I’d be terribly disappointed if we never had a chance to see the Brown election or the Brown debate. The election will be far more exciting and interesting with him leading Labour than it would be without him. It’s amazing that the election is really only about four months away, if not sooner!
361 SthLondon Nick
I think every government in all democracies gets to a “past its sell-by date situation” in that way. That happened even in the Nordic countries where Social Democratic parties felt that they had the right to rule. The question is how long that takes. Currently it looks doubtful if the SNP would fail to be the largest party in 2011.
My point was more that parties pursue their own advantage as opposed to that of the voter at their peril. And that applies with English voters as much as Scots.
346.Nick, a pretty good analysis of the state of play North of the Border for Salmond and his party right now.
261.Some of the decisions have been more unpopular than others, it was the total disaster of the Local income tax policy announcement that really started to see the SNP honeymoon come to an end. IIRC, support for the policy dropped markedly in the polls afterwards.
Nick, I am convinced that an increased turnout in some key constituencies will be to the Tories benefit up here, and that is where they might do better than anticipated. Some of these constituencies have seen turnout drop by 10% in the last few elections, and I think that this flatters some of the current incumbents. I think that the high tide for Labour support was obviously 97′/01′, Libdems 05′ and the SNP 07′. First time in a long time that voters up here can either vote Tory in a positive way, a vote for change, or again as a vehicle to kick this discredited government out of Office.
Some will not even make their mind up until they are in that polling booth, they might even treat it as a chance to try an exotic cocktail they have only heard about in the past.
Goldie and Cameron together have been an excellent detox therapy for the party up here.
364.Wouldn’t surprise me at all if some of those Libdem and SNP incumbents saw their vote already maxed out back in 2005 when Blair and Iraq were at its height.
364 ChristinaD
I think you are wrong to concatenate the results of different elections to different Parliaments.
You really need to concentrate on the polling evidence as opposed to your own convictions.
I think that all Scottish posters here should gather together, on this, the 31st of December, and wish a happy birthday to OUR First Minister, The Rt Hon Alex Salmond MP MSP.
To the First Minister!
365 - ChristinaD is replying to her own posts.
Weird!
366.oldnat, why should I concentrate on polling evidence in Scotland right now, seriously? I am concentrating my opinions on the seats that matter, not the over all performance of the parties across Scotland.
I do believe that the SNP’s high tide in recent years was that 2007 Holyrood election, where as for both Labour and the Libdems it was Westminster elections instead although they shared power for eight years in Holyrood. Just looking at where the SNP are spending money right now is really revealing, they are attempting to shore up the seats they already hold rather than the ones that they might hope to be targeting in a Westminster GE. Angus/Moray/Banff, and of course the now famous Aberdeen bypass is yet again on an election footing for 2010/2011. It always gets a jump start when elections are in the offing.
368.Not weird, just adding a last comment to that post.
If Christina could tell us all how she knows where the SNP are spending their money, that would be FABulous.
367 GlesgaNat
As it happens, I have a glass of Jura Single Malt to hand!
368 GlesgaNat
I would not wish to be unfair to the fair (according to the words of Jack W) Christina. She is adding a supplement to her post - and she has a reasonable point about the LDs. In 2005 they took an honourable position over Iraq. Their dishonourable behaviour only became clear after 2007.
372 - I have no doubt 2005 was a high point for the Scottish LDs. Christina’s idea that 2007 will be an SNP high point is, however, absolutely laughable.
369 ChristinaD
Polls matter because party activists always tend to see things through their own tinted glasses. Saying “the seats that matter” actually reveals a lot. You are focussed on the seats that will make a difference as to whether Brown/Cameron (or neither) becomes elected monarch of the UK.
That will only make a difference to us if there is a clear distinction between Tweedledum and Tweedledee as to who involves us in most wars, or who ruins the economy fastest.
371.Fochabers bypass, Strathcathro Hospital, Aberdeen bypass and the end of the incinerator project in Perthshire.
363 oldnat
Parties pursue their own advantage as opposed to that of the voter at their peril. And that applies with English voters as much as Scots.
I would not agree this applies equally in England and Scotland,
With the English 2 1/2 party system and majority governments there is a clear right-left axis, with - to me anyway - a less clear centre path. The voters’ options are to agree with the government, disagree or protest against both. Although the ‘dividing lines’ between parties may narrow and widen, the policies of each party - even when tasted ‘blind’ - can generally be placed in the area on the political spectrum associated with the party.
In the Scottish 4 party system with a minority ‘nationalist’ government, there is less clarity in the minds of the electorate.
Labour are ‘left’, Tory ‘right’ and Lib Dem’s ‘central’, but where stands the SNP? As a nationalist party it has a licence to plant its flag across the full breath of the political spectrum. This is an advantage when pursuing ‘populist’ measures but it is the difficult decisions that involve the risk. “We need to know where the SNP stands but but they seem to be all over the place” will be the cry of despair when the government pursues an unpopular policy.
There is now more than one major axis: left-right and unionist-secessionist. An issue that is better calibrated on the first axis - say economic management - becomes muddled - sometimes deliberately - by playing it out on the second axis: “we don’t want to cut spending but we are being forced into it by Westminster”.
So parties and policies become muddled. The voter is confused and the system is blamed.
I would be surprised if Scotland sustains a 2+2 party system for any length of time. Additionally one of the axes must go.
Jings, it’s Hogmanay, you’d think we’d have better things to do than be posting online.
Hope you all have a fantabbydosey time for the Bells. Mine will be a sober one as am driving down to deepest Derbyshire on the 1st taking my disabled sister home, that’s if I can fit all the Christmas presents she got in the boot! I’ve booked a night in a Manchester hotel for some R&R before coming home, so that’ll be us.. all over till next year.
2010 - what an interesting year politically we have to look forward to. I took a free bet on Farage in Buckinghmam, but I think I’d prefer the spectacle of Bercow winning and then being shouted down as speaker, just for the drama.
All the best.
Kristin.
373 GlesgaNat
Different Parliaments - different voting patterns. I don’t anticipate the SNP doing better in Westminster 2010 as they did in Holyrood 2007, but certainly better than Westminster 2005 - and better in Holyrood 2011 than in Holyrood 2007.
376 Seth O. Logue
“The concept of one-dimensional politics is only acceptable to those for whom the concept of a flat earth is too complex” as a notable Scottish blogger used to say.
I am constantly amazed by the number of English posters who talk about Labour being “left-wing” and Tories “right-wing”. You are talking about these parties as if there was any ideological divide between them. This is no longer the period of that post war battle. Labour abandoned Socialism, just as the Soviet Union did communism.
All you have now is two groups of politicians who have very similar managerialist policies, with no ideological differences between leaderships.
A much better comparison is not the second half of the 20th century, but English politics in the days of Lord North.
Scottish politics is more complex - because real politics is complex!
377 kristin
A’ the best when it comes. I had some of the best and funniest political debates at Ne’erday!
374.oldnat, its not about seeing things through my own tinted glasses though. We know that there will be a group of seats that simple will not change hands at this GE, red rosette and donkeys etc, and that will definitely be reflected in the turnout and higher voter apathy there too. I am concentrating on the seats that matter most at this GE, the ones that could change hands. And I don’t think that the polling figures for the party vote share across Scotland is telling the full story of what is going on those particular seats right now for a variety of reasons.
Scottish leaders aims for 2010..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8433859.stm
380 thank’s oldnat, I’ll be banned from t’internet on Ne’erday no doubt, though I made sure the hotel has free wifi. We are also visiting friends who unfortunately have a grim year to look forward to, my best friend’s husband has been diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer and it’s is birthday on the 1st. A reminder that each days is a gift, that’s why it’s called the present.
Still I’ll raise a glass to you all.
377.Kristin, I should be tucked up in bed in preparation for a right Hogmanay party tomorrow night. Alas, the snow fall up here this evening and weather forcast tomorrow indicate that we will not be able to get home to Aviemore to celebrate with family and old friends this year. The Lecht was closed at lunchtime today even before this heavy snowfall tonight, and they work there socks off to keep it open for the skiers too. Cannot remember seeing the snow gates closed so often up here in many years, quite a few people already saying its the worst winter weather we have had since the those memorable ones back in the early 80’s/late 70’s.
First time in my adult life the weather has stopped me getting home for New Year.
382 - grr too many apostrophes in that post ..
384 - sorry to hear that Christina. Best not take any chances though.
We’ll be setting off with blankets, shovels, hot drinks etc. Hopefully motorways should be OK, we only have a few miles of normal road between Glasgow and the peak District. Fingers crossed.
383.Kristin, sorry to hear of your friends illness. Have a safe journey down the road, and all the best for 2010, here is hoping that it will be a better one that the last. Just heard that my brother in law’s son is off to Afghanistan next year.
379 oldnat
Are you suggesting a complex blend is more satisfying than a single malt?
There is an element of truth in all that you say, save possibly the last line. Taken together however the blend doesn’t convince.
How long does it take the average Scot to recover from Hogmanay? Shall I make a date in February to return to sober debate?
382 Kristin
Scottish leader aims for 2010
Is there some doubt he will make it?
381 ChristinaD
Different ways of thinking here. You think it matters whether one of the Lab/Con duopoly forms the UK Government. I don’t. Once you abandon tribalist thinking - it really doesn’t matter.
I’ve mentioned a few times - don’t think you have responded - that in a recent poll 20% of those intending to vote Tory for Holyrood did not think a Cameron Government would be good for Scotland. Overwhelmingly, SNP and LD voters (though they didn’t support either) thought that a Brown Government would be no worse than a Cameron Government.
With that kind of substrate to thinking across Scotland, you really have few prospects of taking many seats. this will be largely a no-change election in Scotland. Ochil will go SNP is the only prediction I’m prepared to make, but few other seats will change hands - and most of those will be caused by the rise or fall in the votes of the 3rd or 4th placed parties.
388.Seth, much sooner than that, I am usually well into the guilt ridden diet/general healthy detox after Christmas and New Year.
388 Seth O. Logue
Let’s see. I think my last Burns Supper is on 23 Jan. Not that that makes any difference - I’m just as happy to discuss politics drunk or sober!
389 SOL -
Just to add to the exchange between Seth and Oldnat, I’d say there is in fact perfect clarity on where the SNP stands on the political spectrum - somewhat to the left of both Labour and the Liberal Democrats (albeit not dramatically so). Therefore they’re the furthest left of the four main parties. Labour can perhaps be seen as the authoritarian centre party, the Lib Dems the more libertarian centre party.
I certainly agree with Oldnat that Seth’s characterisation of the positioning of the UK-wide parties is decades out of date. Seth said last night that the Tories and Labour were the yin and yang of politics - one creates the wealth, the other spends it. A perfectly defensible statement, circa 1975. But the current Labour government is well to the right of Edward Heath’s.
391 Christina
That is because you and our party deal with the future. My concern is with those who have a professional interest in analysing the past. We should be concerned.
390.”With that kind of substrate to thinking across Scotland, you really have few prospects of taking many seats. this will be largely a no-change election in Scotland. Ochil will go SNP is the only prediction I’m prepared to make, but few other seats will change hands - and most of those will be caused by the rise or fall in the votes of the 3rd or 4th placed parties.”
oldnat, this recession is not confined to South of the border, its effecting us all and it will matter to voters at the GE. Therefore, it will also matter to voters up here who is governing us down in Westminster in the foreseeable future. I think that turnout will be up, and markedly so, in the seats that might change hands. Its not going to be a no-change GE. My only prediction so far, Labour will pushed back into those heartland seats after losing the almost all the others they gained in the Blair/New Labour years whatever the polls tell us.
388 Seth O. Logue
Further to my post - you see the difference between the upright Scottish woman, and the dissolute Scottish male perhaps? (except that on the 23rd it’ll be my turn to drive home!)
The subtleties and complexities of a single malt are drowned out by the leaden effect of large quantities of neutral grain spirits (make your own comparison!)
I’m disappointed that you don’t think politics are complex.
387 - Thanks Christina, I pray your nephew will have a safe tour of duty.
396 ChristinaD
I’d love to see Murphy lose his seat! If I lived there, I might even hold my nose and vote Tory (I did vote for easterross as POTY!).
All the evidence is that Annabel has increased the Tory vote for Holyrood, but Cameron hasn’t enthused for Westminster. Even in England, where the Tories are well ahead, they aren’t far enough ahead to guarantee a majority - which seems amazing.
lots of Tories are very nice people - but the Uk leadership doesn’t seem to have convinced the electorate that they are as well!
317. Ha ha ha! I predict that Bercow will get at least 2.5 times as many votes as Farage. I would bet on it if I were a betting person.
399 - I know the feeling oldnat, if I could drag the house 50 yards further south I’d be able to vote in East Ren, bugger I’m stuck with Tom Harris and not a clue how to best use my vote this time.
398.Thanks Kristin, not a direct nephew though. Will phone you for a natter in the New Year.
402, I look forward to it
394 James
Now who is projecting their own political convictions on to their party? Would Stuart Dickson agree with your positioning?
I am not disputing that the extremes on the left-right axis have narrowed over the past 40-50 years, especially since the ‘defeat’ of socialism/communism. The ‘zero’ point has also moved: your Heath vs today example is an example.
But the question is do the directions still apply? You yourself have used the terms “left” and “centre” to describe your view of SNP’s current positioning, so there must be some value remaining in the axis.
Stuart has said on pb.com (too lazy to dig the quote out) that if the SNP win independence, the task of the party may be done. He claimed he would be happy to join a new (or transformed) right of centre party which is more closely aligned to his political convictions. I don’t know your postion on this, but if you did abandon the SNP, my guess is that it would be to a left of centre party.
The point I was trying to make earlier was that pursuing a political agenda on two axes: independence vs unionist and ‘left’ vs ‘right’ presents more complex and thereby - in many cases and to many voters - more confusing choices.
You can’t avoid addressing this issue by denying the legitmacy of the axis that has less priority given your current goals.
399.oldnat, genuine straw in the wind noted from canvassing, Cameron has enthused where Gordon turns them off in the seats where it matters. And I have certainly noticed it among women in particular, not just family and friends, on the doorsteps too. I genuinely believe that Scottish polling is underestimating that right now, just as it over estimates Brown’s popularity up here. No surprise that he polls best in those Labour heartlands, but that is not the seats that change at this GE.
404 [Supplementary not responsory] James
Put another way, what keeps you and Stuart in the same party?
I guess the overriding goal of Scottish Independence.
Resolve that issue.
Now are your and Stuart’s political views reconcilable?
404 Seth O. Logue
Actually, if you look at the stances of the UK parties in Scotland compared with the position in England, all UK parties here tend to be more to the left than in England.
You just have to look at the Glasgow NE by-election for the Labour position, for example. Willie Bain seldom talked about UK issues - when he did he disagreed with New Labour and the UK leadership on almost every occasion.
What I think you maybe fail to realise is that Scotland has never been fully part of the Union in the sense that people in England imagine - thinking that Scots running domestic affairs happened for the first time with the restoration of the Scottish Parliament.
Standing up for Scottish interests has always been a core part of politics here - at least since Viscount Melville.
I have seen a good argument that the famous occasion in the 50s when the Tories gained just over 50% of the Scottish vote was a reaction to Labour’s ruthless centralisation of power in London after 1945 (though Tom Johnston minimised it).
It also explains why the Tories asked that outrageously biased question in their UBIX poll.
We have never had a problem with multi-dimensional politics. I actually think it’s sad that the English voters have been trapped by the duopoly pretence that Lab?Con have perpetrated on them.
oldnat
I’m disappointed that you don’t think politics are complex.
In that wonderfully lawyerly phrase, I was addressing “all but not some” of your last line.
One last comment on topic. Interesting article, and the other elephant in the room? We are suffering from a prolonged cold snap right now in some of the very area’s of the UK which tend to have to rely on oil to heat homes, and if oil prices go up, you really notice very directly in your fuel bill. This weather will directly hit everyone’s winter fuel bills as it is, and another pertinent question, how is our national grid holding up right now?
405 ChristinaD
Did you see that Australian research that suggested that people are more likely to vote for people who are physically attractive?
Raises an interesting question as to why women might prefer Cameron to Brown I suppose!
The man-boobs are clearly less off putting than the twitching chin?
408 Seth O. Logue
And in exactly the same way I was addressing “all but not some” of your post. We can all play that game.
404. You’re missing the point, Seth. Stuart Dickson as an individual is of course right-of-centre, but I believe if you asked him he would accept that the centre of gravity in the SNP lies to the left of centre. There’s no need for me to ‘project’ my own views on the party - with the exception of four years, Alex Salmond has been leader since 1990, and throughout that time he has repeatedly defined the SNP as a social democratic party on the Scandinavian model.
You seem to place a great deal of significance on the fact that right-of-centre views can be found within the party - in that case how can you define a party with James Purnell in it as “left”? There can’t be many people in the SNP more right-wing than Purnell and a number of the other New Labour smug-merchants. All parties are ideological coalitions to some extent.
410 - oldnat, not a visual I needed just before retiring, but retire I must.
Night all.
406. Supplementary response, just to emphasise the point -
Stuart is not a typical SNP member. Far from unique, but not typical. The SNP is essentially a centre-left party.
I think I can safely say that if Stuart and I were both Swedes we’d be in different parties! But on some issues are views are reconcilable, yes - he appears to be a social liberal, as am I.
Must be early morning! Discussion of English politics has ceased. I’m just heading off for a quick jog before bed (aye right!)
Night all
410.oldnat, the daft thing is that I don’t think that Cameron is physical attractive as such. And Gordon’s biggest problem is not his looks either. Where Cameron beats Gordon with women hands down, he is a modern man who conveys a confidence that sees you imagining him coping with everyday stuff to do home and kids. Can you see Sarah trusting Gordon to nip down to Tesco’s on Saturday with the kids to do the shopping without getting totally bamboozled and needing to phone home?
Rightly or wrongly, you can see Cameron being able to take such a task in his stride, that is where his appeal is, not looks. He is seen regularly sharing those very household tasks in the media too, I think that a few male posters/Labour politicians miss that very pertinent point. Another reason why the class/eton strategy fails so spectacularly for Labour too. The Daily Mirror also make this mistake regularly.
414. Correction - first ‘are’ should read ‘our’.
Nite all, snowing a blizzard here again, but old jasper(cat) safely in and tucked up too.
What is going on with Rush Limbaugh? Apparently he’s been rushed to hospital in Hawaii in an emergency.
Given his iconic status, this could boomerang around American politics.
416 ChristinaD
He certainly works bloody hard at creating the image! The falsity of it, I thought, was shown in that scene in their kitchen where the wine racks had been emptied! I’ve got more wine bottles than he was showing - the garden shed must have been stuffed full!
Night
416.Sorry for mistakes, strongest thing I have had all night was a very nice Italian coffee too.
420.oldnat, but who else notices those details though? Nite.
407 oldnat
Your arguments are always seductive. It’s the end result that worries the maiden.
I agree with your “little change” prediction for the results in Scotland of the 2010 GE. But I also agree with Christina’s argument that the reality of the recession is driving some Scots to return to the Tories. Cameron may not be warming the hearts of Scots but the warm front is moving North.
It is of course in the interest of the Nationalists to define all political issues in terms of Scottish autonomy. I haven’t the knowledge to challenge your account of the difference between Scottish and English political history, but I have no reason or desire to challenge it. It seems eminently plausible.
Nor would I wish to challenge your claim that Scottish political positioning for all parties is translated left from their equivalents in England.
What worries me though - as a kindly detached observer with Scotland’s interest at heart - is that the opportunity of 2010 GE will pass Scotland by. The nationalists are so absorbed in the battle on the independence vs unionist axis that the more urgent - if not more important - issues on the left-right axis will be ignored.
My personal view is that this problem can only be resolved by some very clever and original footwork by Cameron and Salmond. It will be Salmond that has to lead the dance as Cameron has many other competing issues queueing up for attention.
What is more important? A strong economy in Scotland that can sustain independence/devolution max, or a well worked trick that furthers the cause of independence.
That is the real issue facing Salmond with a Cameron government in Westminster.
423.”What worries me though - as a kindly detached observer with Scotland’s interest at heart - is that the opportunity of 2010 GE will pass Scotland by. The nationalists are so absorbed in the battle on the independence vs unionist axis that the more urgent - if not more important - issues on the left-right axis will be ignored.
My personal view is that this problem can only be resolved by some very clever and original footwork by Cameron and Salmond. It will be Salmond that has to lead the dance as Cameron has many other competing issues queueing up for attention.
What is more important? A strong economy in Scotland that can sustain independence/devolution max, or a well worked trick that furthers the cause of independence.
That is the real issue facing Salmond with a Cameron government in Westminster.”
Seth O Logue, that is an incredible perceptive post, one that I would have failed to have posted in such eloquent terms no matter how hard I tried. And don’t worry, I don’t think that Scotland’s voters will let the opportunities of this next GE pass them by, although you would be entirely right to make that observation if you relied solely on the input of the Scottish contingent here.
423. “What is more important? A strong economy in Scotland that can sustain independence/devolution max…”
As ever with the unionist argument, the crucial questions are posed upside down.
Looking to strengthen its economy, can Scotland live without the extra powers it so desperately needs?
423.Seth, concentrating on Independence this year instead of the increasingly dire economic outlook was the SNP’s biggest single mistake, and it will cost them dear at the next GE. I think that Independence like Brown and Labour are only affordable in the good times, and any argument to strengthen devolution fiscally will fail with the voters right now. Its all about sticking with nanny when times are rough, and that is the Union not Gordon.
424. Oh, I think most of the Scottish contingent here are fully aware of the opportunities the next election provides for Scotland. There may still be one or two who lack the imagination to think outside the London “tweedledum versus tweedledee” box, but that’s only to be expected.
427.And on that sarcastic note, goodnite.
428. Yes, “although you would be entirely right to make that observation if you relied solely on the input of the Scottish contingent here” certainly was extremely sarcastic.
Night night.
Christina & James
I am not against Scotland being provided with “extra powers”. My view is that there should be full devolution (reversion to sovereignty) with delegation of powers by both sides back to the Union where it is both parties interests. A sort of “devolution max” (oldnat’s term?) if you like. Reconstitution of the Union is not an anti-independence stand, but a considered view on the best way forward. It doesn’t preclude acceptance of full independence if that is the will of a majority of the Scottish people.
Now we have to address the “upside down” criticism of James. This is really a distinction between urgent and important. Addressing the collective debt burden and joint need for economic restructuring of the economy is urgent. Measures have to be implemented in 2010. It will be painful on both sides of the border, although the course of treatment may differ in line with the prevailing political will.
James will see the constitutional question as being far more important. I accept this but it is not more urgent. The constitutional questions cannot be properly resolved in 2010 and will takes years of negotiation and implementation. That is not to say however that they shouldn’t start in 2010.
Looked at this way, ‘upside down’ or ‘cart and horse’ distinctions appear irrelevant.
labour optimists are fantasists according to:
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2010/01/labour-lead-government