How’s Brown doing against Major and Callaghan?
January 6th, 2010
How good a pointer are these numbers?
A lot is talked about polling comparisons between now and the run-up to the May 1997 general election when, of course, Mr. Blair won a landslide victory.
It can be challenging finding comparable data because of the considerable changes in polling over the past thirteen years. The table above, however, is one where we can make a direct comparison because it’s based on MORI questions which have been asked in the same way for more than thirty years. MORI then and MORI now do not weight samples by past vote.
The numbers in the table are the percentages of those sample saying they are satisfied when asked “..Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Callaghgan/Mr. Major/Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?”
I plan a further post focussing on the Maggie/Blair/Cameron comparison when the question was about doing their job as opposition leader.
The main methodological difference between 1979, 1997 and 2009/10 is that since June 2008 all political polling by the firm has been carried out on the telephone.
UPDATE: The table has been updated to include the figures for the 1978/79 period when Labour under Callaghan last lost power.
Mike Smithson
***Great post by Bunnco on PB2***
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First?
It seems that Brown is in pretty much the same position as Major in 1997 give or take.
Repeated FPT, because the story is too funny to miss:
Mandelson: the movie!
http://londonersdiary.standard.co.uk/2010/01/mandelson-can-keep-spinning-on-the-screen.html
I think the leader ratings are more important now than ever. Major at least had some big names and credible ministers on the Tory side, even if they were unpopular. Labour has nobody we can remember or not just laugh at - it has only Brown.
UK politics is becoming more presidential in many ways. 2010 will be a Dave vs Brown show.
How about comparing Brown to Major in 91/92 - when both governments were in their third term.
You’re not comparing like with like.
Bearing in mind that they are more or less level pegging, two things strike me.
1) John Major was heading a minority government, in the midst of civil war, whilst Brown still enjoys a big majority.
2) John Major was presiding over a strong economic recovery, whilst Gordon Brown struggles with an imploding economy.
The first factor should give Brown an advantage over his predecessor, but the second should be a far bigger negative.
So for the unlikeable Brown to be in the same position (give or take) as the far more likeable Major, in much worse circumstances, is little short of a miracle.
Can you compare Brown with Major in 91/92 - when both governments are in their fourth term.
You’re not comparing like with like.
Damn this new software is slow!
7 Millsy. Surely it is like for like. A dying and exhausted government at the turn of the year that will almost certainly see them gone with a new and popular opposition leader. The 3rd term / 4th term angle is just semantics and misses the underlying motivation for what people feel about their PM.
Brown must stay! Brown must stay!
Mike it would also be very instructive to see the comparison of those who said ‘dissatisfied’. Leader ratings are usually presented as a net positive or net negative. Brown and Major may get a similar scoore on satisfaction - but how do their overall net +/- scores compare?
It’d bet Brown is looking alot worse than Major at the same stage. (If only because I think in 1997 people were fed up with the Tories more than Major himself but in 2010 they’re fed up with Brown more than his party).
I’m sure someone, somewhere, will creatively misread this comparison as being of the polling in the run-up to the 1992 election. Perhaps it would be handy to have those numbers as well, to show how much Major’s position had deteriorated in those years, and how clearly this election resembles 1997 rather than 1992.
What is Mandleson doing, Tonails is trumpeting that Lord Pooh Bah is setting out limits for taxation, government spending and so on.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8442761.stm
Manoevres, coup or defenestration?
re 11. Too much data and it gets too complex. I’m presenting these in what is very much the US way where the emphasis is on the satisfaction number.
If I was to add further data to this it would be to do a 1978-79 comparison when Labour last lost power.
11 “in 2010 they’re fed up with Brown more than his party”
But is that really true? If there was any evidence that one particular challenger were going to raise Labour’s national polling position, it would have made it so much easier for plotters to rally around that person. But all the current Labour big beasts are tainted with a contaminated brand. In a happy inversion, you can put a red rosette on any Labour leadership candidate, and still no-one will vote for it…
Fair dinkum. I just think the net +/- comparison would show quite a different story.
15. The economic disaster, no more boom and bust, spend, spend, spend, funding the military, bullying, smearing, never answering a question, ‘no cuts’, etc, etc - nearly all of the Labour party’s woes can be traced back to a single monocular Scottish gentleman. Yes there’s three parts of fu<k all behind him in the party, a more useless cabinet than one would dream imaginable, but it’s Gordon wot dunnit.
It’s way too late to change. Labour fluffed their big chance to redeem themselves and they would be unpopular whoever took over. But let’s never forget who the architect of so much sorrow really is.
So Twelfth Night has lived up to its reputation as a time for merrymaking.
But now the flashing lights and gaudy baubles have been boxed and returned to the attic. Christmas has passed but the recession, like the snow, still lies deep and crisp and even.
Today is the Feast of Ephiphany, which celebrates the incarnation of Jesus being revealed to the non-believers. A day of baptism and the homage of Three Kings.
Today the French will eat cake - le gâteau des Rois - which hides a porcelain model of a King. Whoever finds it in their portion becomes monarch for the day.
Is today our political epiphany, Dave’s incarnation?
If le gâteau des Rois is served at Cabinet, who will get the porcelain doll?
UPDATE: I added another column in the table to show the figures for the last Labour PM to lose power - Jim Callaghan in 1979
13 Arse-covering? “I told Gordon what he needed to do. But would he listen? Nah. The election failure is not down to me…”
He is looking to preserve his Blair-era reputation (yeah, I know, in his mind, but bear with me), and not be simply remembered as being at Gordon’s side for the sinking of the Labour Party.
Has anyone heard anything recently about how Alistair Campbell is back pulling the strings in Downing Street? No, me neither. I suspect he is also sloping away from the coming train-wreck…
[19] - Thanks Mike. Looks grim for Brown.
And the Brown Epiphany is only just getting underway.
The addition of those Callaghan numbers is really interesting. Shows how fast numbers can crash - 54 to 31 in the two months of “Crisis? What Crisis?” and the Winter of Discontent. Imagine what could happen to Gordon if he yet had to call in the IMF. Eek…
Time for Brown to claim he is in place to save the world again, after all he has not done that for err, EVER.
The global warming argument he pinned his hope on at Copenhagen is even sorrier this week. If it ever had validity that is.
(I know, judging global warming by one month is nuts, however is just as silly as judging it by 30 or 40 years, there is too much variation, and there were no factories emitting pollutants when Greenland was warmer and growing seasonal veggies 800 years ago.)
So what can he do NEXT to save the world next? Can he get into another war against Iran, Yemen or North Korea by May? Answers on the back of a stamp c/o McBride/Campbell, spinmeisters to the stars, and Brown.
For those that may have missed it, I copy SthLondonNick’s post from last night. It has a cracker of a smear/joke from Osborne.
“Et tu Pimco?”
Pimco, one of the world’s biggest bond funds, have followed up their decision to cut back on UK gilts by publicly deriding Labour’s existing deficit reduction plans. If Gordon Brown sticks to his plans, Pimco think there is an 80 per cent chance of a downgrade.
The irony of this is of course that Ed Balls’ brother Andrew (another fine former FT journalist) is currently in charge of managing Pimco’s European portfolio.
George Osborne just put it rather well in the Commons, saying the Pimco move “suggests that a lack of confidence in the chancellor’s abilities runs right across the Balls family”.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/01/et-tu-pimco/
The “Brown and Out” market appears to be suspended on SPIN, though not, interestingly, the next Labour Leader market.
The comparison with Major in 91/92 highlights just how unpopular Brown is. Here are Major’s numbers in the Conservatives’ fourth term (i.e. at the same point in the electoral cycle):
50 - June
53 - July
57 - August
57 - September
54 - October
52 - November
51 - December
51 - January
48 - February
48 - March
Whatever Major’s shortcomings (and there were many) he was likeable on a personal level (I havenever met anyone who has had personal dealings with him who did not speak highly of him) and self-evidently a decent chap.
Contrast with Brown
However, those looking at Brown’s ratings as compared with Callaghan’s ratings have to bear in mind that Callaghan was consistently more popular than his party (and Mrs Thatcher as the opposition leader). Indeed, it is remarkable how positive the final numbers are - however, he could not stop his party going down to defeat. The position, of course, is reversed with Brown who is less popular than his party and the opposition leader. Suggests that it could be very interesting if he stepped down and a new leader came in.
7. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2438&view=wide
Major’s satisfaction rating never fell below 48% in the run up to the 1992 election. You can see that Kinnock’s ratings were far worse (as indeed, was the satisfaction rating for the government)
Re 25
For both young Eddie and Andy Balls to have gone to Harvard for MBA’s, mummy and daddy Balls must have been richer than Mr & Mrs Cooper-Balls are now, and thats saying something. Eddie’s not just a toff, he’s a modern day aristocrat.
20. But the MORI tables show the satisfaction ratings of the government are worse than those of Brown - suggesting Labour is less popular than Brown.
Over on PB2
Will ‘Text Gary to 65000′ Change the Face of Political Campaigning?
A new twist in the way in which the http://freegary.org.uk/campaign is being run has implications for Political Campaigning in the UK and for the first time in this country applies the lessons learned from Obama’s 2008 victory. Political Campaign Managers Take Note: A new type of Interactive Campaigning is coming to a constituency near you.
Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot reports on new text technology that’s being developed in Norwich.
33. Oppps. And here’s are the links
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/01/will-text-gary-to-65000-change-face-of.html
http://freegary.org.uk/
Inches of snow, poor, desperate journalists having to stand in the cold for hours on motorway bridges and still no sign of a Cobra meeting ! For God’s sake Prime minister, show us you care.
22 Patrick
On this feast day of Epiphany, perhaps the three wise Kings - King Jack, King Peter and King Tony - will visit Gordo in his bunker to tell him what all of us already know: that he is not the Messiah, but a very naughty boy.
That would be the true Brown Epiphany.
10 - only until the election.
Booting him and his cabal from power will be oh so sweet.
I see our Scottish friends are heeding police advice and posting only when absolutely necessary.
27 - That doesn’t really show how unpopular Brown is but how popular Major was until 1992 (and indeed how far he fell).
Mike is trying to get at how heavy Labour’s defeat might be, so the appropriate comparison is with the last times the Government changed rather than when it didn’t.
11 - Patrick ” but in 2010 they’re fed up with Brown more than his party.”
Last 2 polls at least show Brown with less of a negative score than Labour.
I too find that hard to believe but I commentated on it at the time - with scores like that its game over.
38 fr
Or maybe they have run out of gas?
35. You’re not alone in your climatic suffering. We had a few speckles of rain here in Bangkok this afternoon, and I had to curtail my poolside sunbathing by ten minutes, and come inside for a siesta.
Strange times, indeed.
28-I thought those who had met Brown always talked about his inner warmth, sense of humour, etc. The fact it’s a croc and no one believed it now means no one ever bothers with it any more.
35-Haha! Contrast with the halcyon summer of 2007. Not flash just Gordon!
There appears to be no media outlet that can answer the simple question: can I get to Birmingham and back today? Breakfast TV consists of “ooh it’s snowy”. Virgin West Coast says: “we’re trying to run a full service but check with network rail”. Network Rail’s website’s live train information isn’t working. I’m not going.
O/T the December Nationwide consumer confidence index fell 5 points to 69, back to the August level. Nationwide are blaming the PBR for this, for raising fears of future tax rises.
The details seem to broadly support this interpretation; the % saying the UK economic situation is bad rose to 73 (from 70) and most strikingly there was a seven point drop in the % expecting future conditions to be ‘better than today’ - from 41% to 34%.
England caught ball tampering in the SA test.
39 Sir Norfolk
The problem with Major is that he inherited Thatcher’s public popularity and was then taxed on his inheritance by his own term in office. He should have been given more time in the great offices of state to build up personal allowances.
Much of the 48-57 approval ratings prior to the 92 election did not come from earned income.
I wonder if Labour’s broad but shallow support helps out Callaghan and Brown here.
Also, more ****ing snow in West Yorkshire.
43 antifrank
Surely you can buy a kipper tie in London?
Wonder if timmo has landed.
Those living around Heathrow might like to look up into the skies and wave.
It is an article like this from OGH with real statistics that is one of the reasons I prefer to come here for political insight than go to the newspapers. The newspapers should ask themselves why their journalists are incapable of writing a piece like this that uses facts to provide a genuine insight.
Brown is plainly f***ed. He is now so weak that Mandy feels able to set out an alternative tax policy. No one in the cabinet would have dared do that 3 years ago.
Gordon Brown can only be compared to King Herod who set about a killing spree of recently born babies when the Three Kings failed to return and report on the whereabouts of the new King. His revealing comment on Marr last Sunday that he has always fought for what he has achieved wasn’t about his willingness to face up to the electorate but to what he does behind the scenes. So, like Herod, he could attempt to take a sizeable part of the ungrateful electorate down with him and leave a burnt out nation for whoever emerges as the new PM.
50. The answer is that journalists are too lazy and thick to do any research and prefer to simply regurgitate stories they have been spoon-fed or dress up the latest ‘conventional wisdom’. And editors couldn’t care less.
Another good article by bunnco on pb2
Bunnco. That’s a super article. Plays right into into my own Tory / turnout meme. I hope CCHQ is using every means possible to get the vote out.
I’m still wondering if 75% turnout is really likely. I hope so.
I dont think we can blame the local councils. We have other priorities and are stretched providing desperately needed services.
The jokes will follow about “so much for global warming” but it is important to remember that we do have to provide resources to prevent a global catastrophe.
51 el windy
I hope you’ve copied your post to the CRB. Primary School teachers should be warned.
test
On the other hand.
http://tinyurl.com/yg97z52
Latest from Thrasher.
Credit where credit’s due…. At Copenhagen, Gordon promised to save the world from global warming. Brrrr
I see the Curse Of Gordon has spread to Iceland. With the Icelanders almost certain to vote against paying the UK £3.2bn in the forthcoming referendum, it seems the driving force behind the angry national mood is a joint hatred of one Gordon Brown, and his use of anti-terrorist laws against their country.
Well done Goedon. Kerching!
53 Morris Dancer
Seconded.
Would be interested in learning whether there are plans afoot to use the ‘new’ campaigning methods in Norfolk South. That is where they might be a decisive influence.
55 Do you work for the University of East Anglia by any chance?
54 Patrick
You may be interested to know that Sky are broadcasting their snow reports from outside the Polly Tearooms.
…a major landmark on Marlborough High Street…
…and very nice cakes….
my neighbour just told me that the gritter got stuck on the A24 this morning. If you dont need to go out in this weather dont.
Will Gordo call an election now to stop people getting to the polls?
65. It could be postal votes only…
How beautifully just this would be if it came true - Labour going bust
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/01/is-it-unthinkable-that-labour-could-go.html
67, can’t see it happening. But ‘twould be mirthful.
Just been invited to participate in very comprehensive 12-14 minute YouGov survey on voting intentions and views on likelihood to vote, terrorism, economy, Brown vs Cameron vs Clegg etc.
Was looking through some earlier threads. I posted this two years ago; not much has changed - apart from the Credit Crunch… Why on earth have Labour not used these two years to shift this man?
If Gordon were a Premiership manager, he wouldn’t have made Christmas. There is silence on the terraces, attendance is falling, new signings aren’t being made (not that he has any money to spend) and the height of ambition seems to be grinding out a home 0-0 draw at PMQ’s. The Messiah he ain’t.
If he were the CEO of a FTSE 100 company, then the analysts reports would headed “SELL”. The share price is on the skids, but he keeps standing up and giving the same report - about how he will steer the company to record future earnings. He has a tawdry middle management selling a tired range of products that no-one wants to buy. He is British Leyland, still trying to market the merits of the Marina and the Allegro.
You wouldn’t give the man a job - if there was any meaningful interview process. But there wasn’t. So his interview for the job is going to be the GE - where he will be reduced to making visits to junior schools, from where he will sell us on the merits of buying a Morris Ital or an Austin Princess. And how these are better than anything that was being built a decade ago - oh yes! They are products that will fire the imagination - and make us the envy of the world.
Pity the poor sap of a Labour co-ordinator for that campaign. Brown is going to be sliced and diced by Cameron in the process.
The 2010 Brown v Cameron “presidential” election gives a solid working majority for the Tories. Perhaps very solid.
by Marquee Mark February 16th, 2008 at 7:00 am
Good Morning Struggling England Cricket Supporters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. In the ‘Guardian’ The Cleggster absolutely equally, right down the line, 50% a piece attacks the less than progressive child chomping Cameron Conservatives and also very firmly, the near King Herod qualities of our Gordon.
Heck …. it looks like Tories and Labour are very naughty people !!
Link :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/06/nick-clegg-tories-labour-politics
Not a snowflake has fallen in this neck of the woods, not even a frost last night.
Heff calls it for a hung parliament.
With the two main parties scrapping and preening in this unconvincing way, attention must turn to the object of their joint desires, the Liberal Democrats. Both party leaders are continuing to be charming to the Lib Dems. Both parliamentary parties are horrified by this, Labour less so than the Tories because their survival gene has kicked in. The Tory whips are, however, being told by many backbenchers that the Lib Dems are, and must remain, the ultimate enemy. Nick Clegg has the distinction of remaining the most uncompromised of the three main party leaders, but that cannot last much longer. A hung parliament looks likely. Mr Clegg wrote yesterday that, in that event, he would feel obliged to support whichever party had the bigger mandate: one could not have sought a clearer statement about how the Lib Dems stand for nothing. This is a shocking fraud on the voters.
Were I in the interesting position of being prepared to vote Lib Dem, I should want to be sure what I was going to get. All that is certain is that I would not get a Lib Dem government, for there is more chance of Mr Brown admitting our parlous economic state is his fault than there is of that happening.
I think Mr Clegg had better start detailing what his own party’s beliefs are, and sharing with those whose votes he takes for granted which of the main parties he feels he and his tribe have more in common with. There are, I know, many Lib Dem voters who would not support that party if they thought their vote would be used to shore up this discredited Government; and others who feel that way about helping the Tories. Perhaps, as everyone else is trying to fool the public, Mr Clegg feels he should play that game too.
Since he may soon end up being more important than the rest of us would like, he might do us the courtesy of setting a new and encouraging benchmark for honesty, and hinting whom he would prefer to make king.
Dodgy headline. At least neither party took millions of ill-gotten funds, refused to return it, and then get let off by the authorities who then savage UKIP over a far less serious matter.
antifrank, Brum’s working fine. Plent of snow but roads clear.
Nick Clegg was truly awful on Radio 5 yesterday.
England have taken a wicket!!!
I must be seeing things.
73 “A hung parliament looks likely.”
What a crock from Heff. It remains a possible outcome. On current polling (especially with the splits we consistently see in the Midlands) it remains significantly less likely than a Tory majority.
77. Heffer, like many hacks, takes the view that the news is whatever he wants it to be.
There is a large snowman in my village - in the middle of the road! So much for the gritting…
Going nowhere.
71 Clegg is always on attack, wonder if this is best approach. On R5 yesterday Nicky Campbell asked him to say something positive about both and he couldn’t and Campbell commented it didn’t fit with the Lib Dem message.
Lib Dem supporters, as compared to activists, always seem to me to be the people who want co-operation, that believe the country does better bringing people together. Their policy towards Europe & the UN is about finding common ground. Clegg, Huhne and Cable are always in attack mode, denigrating their opponents. Kennedy used humour and personality to disguise the knife.
70 Marquee Mark
And they say a week is a long time in politics!
Looking at that Dale blog on Labour finances, I can’t work out why Laboourites are so keen on a hung parliament. They can’t afford one election, how will they afford two?
I like ol’ Heff he’s my kind of Tory, the sort I know, never met a Camerooon, think they only exist on this site, or tell me they are.
David Milliband back in the frame.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-i-know-a-man-who-can-keep-the-new-labour-flame-burning-1858850.html
I wish Labour would get on with it, then the voters will be offered the choice between: MilliBlair, CammiBlair and CleggiBlair.
Yes folks its the three Blairs, you can have ‘em in any colour you want, as long as its Blair.
yes 83. the guy who won 3 general elections - not a bad template, is it?
82, maybe they have a draft bill for state funding of political parties?
Was amused to see on Sky yesterday the shift from fractions to decimals for racehorse betting. The example used was most seats in the GE, with the Tories 1.15, or 7/1 on. But the political correspondents have been saying for a while a hung Parliament is tremendously likely. Bollocks.
80. Yes I also think Clegg’s Mr.Angry approach is probably the wrong one - though it no doubt chimes with some of the Seniorites…
Sky News weather forecast: Lisa says that she is expecting a few more inches.
Please add your own punchline!
80.
Ted
That is a very good summary of the Libdems!
80
Don’t be unfair to Clegg.
If you run a party facing all ways at once and full of sanctimonious hypocrites# you have to act as one as Leader.
#(apologies to OGH - note I do NOT say ALL LibDems are hypocrites: just there are a lot of them. All parties of course have them…)
39 -
That is very true. An interesting point is that all PMs have polled ahead of their parties (at least on these figures) Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown - at their high and low points always pull up the government’s support. Even Brown is more popular than his party on these numbers.
I still like comparing 1992 with 2010 though. After 13 years of power Major/Conservatives were a lot more popular than Brown/Labour are at this point.
Bear in mind Heffer’s agenda is to remove Cameron. To that end he’s been “bigging up” Clegg in his articles ever since (and even during) the Lib Dem leadership battle. A hung parliament is a good outcome for Heff especially if it puts pressure on Cameron’s leadership.
25: I suspect he is related to the PBer known as “tim”
O/T I think I have put down more bird seed this winter than Oxfordshire has put down grit. Now we’ve got coal tits on the feeders - quite unusual here - and the fieldfare is still seeing off anyone who has the temerity to try to take his apples from under the tree.
80; The reason why Labourites are so keen on a hung parliament is because it is the best that they can hope for. It is the same as us Tories at the last GE….we knew it was ridiculous to think we could win, so we had to hope for the next best!
Conservative Party National finances are just as dire as Labour’s . Both parties are technically insolvent . The Conservatives ended 2008 with net debts of $ 7.46 million a minimal improvement over 2007 when they were £ 7.75 .
I would still expect to see a spend spend spend GE campaign from both with net debts at the end of the year around £ 15-20 million .
‘The perfect is the enemy of the good’ - that seems for me to sum up Heff’s approach to Dave. Dave is not the out and out baby eater that Heff would clearly like (but to realise wouldn’t get elected) - so he just slings insults from the sidelines.
In so far as Heffer seems to have any core views it is quite clear that Dave is far and away the best (in fact the only) option on the ballot form. Dave would take the UK nearer to Hefferworld, but not all the way. All other options would go in quite the opposite direction. I find the ‘all or nothing’ approach some take to politicians and their platforms quite childish. No politician will ever perfectly match your own dream ticket. You just have to choose the least worst option.
Heffer is like a toddler throwing his teddy in the corner.
90: Heffer is the journalistic equivalent of McDoom - everything he says will come to pass will almost certainly not. The man is a baffoon with a huge chip on his shoulder that the world doesn’t share his view of himself as a political genius.
94. Yes but you make the same mistake as Gordo when spouting debt statistics - the other half of the equation is income - the Cons income compared to Labour will much more favourable.
@94:
If you have money to spend, you’re not “technically insolvent”, Mark. That would surely be a contradiction in terms.
Is there any significance to each leader recording their best scores in November?
13 I wonder whether Gordo prefers a quiet Mandy or an active Mandy busy making mischief? Perhaps this does mean that Darling was the unhappy bunny of yesterday and that Mandy has seen a chance to get his way after all.
Some people taking a hung parliament very seriously…
Making Minority Government Work
http://wwws-a.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/files/research/in-the-round/IFG_making%20minority%20government_final%20proof%2020%20nov%2009.pdf
“The required swing is more than at all post-war elections save for Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. Six months before that election, the Labour Party had a lead of around 25% (as opposed to the 10-15% advantage enjoyed by the Conservatives today), which eventually narrowed to a 12.5% margin at the poll.
This means that a hung parliament is a real possibility, whose implications ought to be thought through in advance.”
93
Errr the reason I want a hung parliament is to give the present system a kick up the arse, I’d like to see a different voting system, coupled with being fed up with buggins turn, like to see something different.
You really believed there was a chance Labour would lose its majority at the last election? hmmmm!!
@96:
I struggle to think of a more thoroughly unsatisfactory human being than Simon Heffer.
Scarily, the Vulcan makes a lot of sense. however this is not difficult with the shambles of this fag end Government.
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2010/01/06/parliament-misses-the-mood-again/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JohnRedwoodsDiary+%28John+Redwood%27s+Diary%29
Morning all from snowy Sussex.
Re last night’s shenanigans: Entertaining though the stories of leadership plots may be, I don’t think they are the real story. Clearly there is massive frustration amongst ministers and MPs, and this gets picked up journalists who take unguarded remarks and make these into ‘news’ articles which give them more significance than they warrant.
Of course, it is quite extraordinary that, even at this late stage, Labour MPs are prepared to damage their party’s chances with talk of splits and leadership challenges; that merely indicates poor morale and defeatism.
But the real story must, I think, be the battle for the manifesto, and for the direction of the Labour Party post-GE. That is why Mandy is out today issuing his pre-emptive strike on tax, in an attempt to limit the damage which Balls and Brown intend to inflict by their approach which, whilst it might shore up the core vote in the short term, is a recipe for electoral irrelevance in the slightly longer term.
It is hard to see how this disunity, chaos, stories of leadership challenges (even if not particularly well-founded), and evident poor morale, can be anything other than damaging to Labour in the polls. At this point in the electoral cycle, the New Labour media management plan should be swinging smoothly into action; instead it is in total disarray.
I wrote a few weeks ago that I thought Labour’s mini-bounce had probably come to an end, and I see no reason to change that view in the light of recent developments.
73. Libdems support party ‘with largest mandate’
So, the LibDems don’t stand for anything. They remind me of all my schoolfriends back in the early 80’s that supported Liverpool and Notts Forest when they were doing well in the European Cup and then switched to ManUtd when they started doing better. No principles or loyalty there then!
But the team that the LibDems really remind of is Millwall. Everybody hates them but they don’t care.
95
Re Heffer
Anyone who can write:….
“We know that Queen Victoria dismissed him as addressing her as though she were a public meeting, and sought whenever possible to try to avoid appointing him prime minister. That should be regarded simply as the bigotry of a silly old woman who had been too stupid to see how Disraeli had flattered her shamelessly.”
..about Queen Victoria is clearly a bounder and a cad .And living in the wrong century..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/6868274/How-the-great-Mr-Gladstone-saved-our-fallen-country.html
98 If the money you spend is already owed to someone else you are technically insolvent .
97 You ( and the Conservative party nationally ) hope the Conservative income compared to Labour will be much more favourable .
@101:
You realise, Rod, the primary reason nobody takes you seriously, is that you’re a f*cking idiot.
Marquee Mark,
I’ve just being doing a bit of fiddling on the sky news politics website gizmo..
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Politics
The interesting one is where the figures input are.
Tories - 38.7%
Labour - 33.2%
LibDem - 18.0%
Others - 10.1%
This rather unlikely scenario [well, it is just for fun and clearly the caveats about the 'widget methodology' apply...] gives Labour and the Tories exactly the same number of seats, 290, despite the Tories having a full 5.5% margin.
Of course if the Tories maintain a ten point lead then they could get an overall majority. But I’m guessing that it is calculations like this which have led to the love bombing of Nick Clegg, since even an overall majority of 20 MPs is not huge to get through a full programme of Government without at least tacit support from the Cleggmeister’s Lib Dems.
101. They don’t apparently take it seriously enough to note that pre 97 polls should not be compared to post 97 polls, which is now, thanks to OGH, practically the acid test for serious psephology and proper political journalism.
Anyone who DOESN’T know or acknowledge this fact is by definition a dorkus and a schnoodle. And a twat who should be ignored.
101 RodCrosby
If you you could guarantee implementation of your choice between an hung parliament and an overall Labour majority, which would it be?
Give a political rather than a psephological answer!
103 Martin Coxall
Gordon Brown?
@113:
Not even that. Gordon appears to be able to maintain normalised relations with a small cadre, something which has apparently always eluded Heffer.
“In so far as Heffer seems to have any core views it is quite clear that Dave is far and away the best (in fact the only) option on the ballot form. ”
I’m sure he would point to UKIP instead, believing that they are the ‘true heirs’ of conservatism and that there is a silent majority of conservatives who want them to be more like that party. He would also point to the US where the GOP leadership is so scared of the hard right now that you have their chairman claiming that he is one of them (and Gingrich etc.).
I’m sure Heffer really believes that a similar movement to the tea party movement will push the conservative party into being a UKIP clone. He’s barmy of course but, even if it’s a small possibility, it could, nevertheless, happen. Especially if Cameron is seen to fail.
A magnificently desperate piece of half-assed warmism from the Independent. The headline says it all:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-is-happening-even-if-it-doesnt-feel-like-it-1858998.html
The article reluctantly acknowledges that Britain is having its worst winter since the Holocene, then bizarrely suggests that northeastern America is unseasonably warm (er, didn’t they just have historic winter storms) then wheels in its clinching argument. In contrast to the glaciers in Gloucestershire:
“in Madrid the temperature was 10C against a seasonal average of 9C, and in Rome it was 13C, compared to an average of 11C.”
Crikey. That’s that Global Warming again - it should be nine degrees in Madrid, but in fact its a shocking and terrifying ONE DEGREE WARMER THAN THAT.
Scorchio.
115 …maybe I should have said ‘credible option’…
116
Sean T
The Independent is a rag. Quoting it in favour or against anything proves .. it’s a rag.
The warmists look a bunch of numbnuts.. they insist we should be wearing shorts now…
112. Hung Parliament, of course!
75 - Many thanks. I’m a train man rather than a car man and have decided against venturing out today, especially given that more snow is supposed to be on the way. The thought of being stuck in Brum with nothing but a balti to keep me warm at night is too scary.
@115:
If that were to happen, I would flee the party in a second. But I just don’t see it.
The cultural, religious and social currents that have caused the Republicans to drift off into an ideological wilderness do not, have never existed in the UK, and I can’t see what might cause them to arise.
*Especially* as UKIP already exists for that kind of loon to support, should they so desire.
Surely Simon Heffer is going to vote for himself when he seeks the votes of the good people of Saffron Walden?
runnymede January 6th, 2010 at 8:45 am “journalists are too lazy and thick to do any research”. Maybe that is why the media are giving more space to internet writers than paper writers?
94 Mark Senior you write what you wish to be the case not the reality. The conservatives will raise and spend £20m+ for this GE. Your party’s biggest donor at the last GE is on the run.
80 Ted, to back up your observations on Clegg/Huhne etc if we look back to the London Mayoral campaign Paddick played the attack dog role and the Lib Dem vote went down…..
test
96 “baffoon”
I think you invented a perfect new political insult there, NigelJ.
I wonder to whom else it might apply?
Sion Simon would be my nomination. Anyone else?
Time is not on the warmists side. They have been saying for years that we have only 10 minutes left to save the universe. But 10 minutes later it is still cold.
The disconnect between what was predicted and what we see can only become more and more stark. Unles we really start to see some obvious warming or higher sea levels in the next 2 or 3 years I expect a clear worldwide majority (normal people not politicians, socialists or ecomentalists) will just start to laugh.
@124:
Name all the countries of the world that begin with D.
119 RodCrosby
Why?
Most news desk paper journalists have to work on many many stories each day.
OGH and most opinion writers don’t.
116 - A great irony is that the high priestess of pontificating from a position of stupidity (and god, there are so many of them that it’s getting crazy now, especially those who claim that snow or hurricanes or whatever is ‘proof’ of anything) Sarah Palin is in one of the places that has been much warmer in the last month (North Africa, Middle East etc. are others), being up to 10 degrees centigrade warmer than normal.
The sooner that pretty much everyone admits that they know nothing the better.
@129:
That’s one of the worst excuses for lazy slag churnalism I’ve ever heard.
125 Sion Simon? Has he written any newspaper or magazine articles?
Simon Heffer is one of the left’s useful tools. He attacks the Conservatives through a paper mainly read by potential Conservative voters. He openly campaigns for UKIP who attract away voters from the Conservatives which lets through the left leaning parties.
It is one of the many reasons that the Telegraph is today regarded as a socialist paper.
116. SeanT - its not just NE America - the whole country is setting new temperature records.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/the-frigid-hit-parade-over-1200-new-cold-and-snow-records-set-in-the-last-week-in-the-usa-more-in-progress/
@130: I think everyone admitted that Ms Palin doesn’t know anything ages ago.
117 - “115 …maybe I should have said ‘credible option’…”
Again, he could say that the tea party movement in polls is getting better support than the mainstream GOP. I know that the US is in pretty much a different political universe but it’s the sort of detail that keeps people like Heffer going.
124 tim, working from home today?
131 - You do what you’re told to by your boss or you get sacked. It’s the same in all industries.
It’s not so bad at the places I have worked to be fair as they are generally pretty well resourced (Sun, Times, Mail) but some places barely have enough staff to fill the pages if they sit bashing the keyboard all day.
But when I’m working on a book I have days, weeks, months before deadlines to get things researched. If I was working on a newspaper story I might have half an hour.
127 - Take a trip Daveland, where all your worries are airbrushed away.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/01/06/revealed-david-cameron-s-heavily-airbrushed-election-campaign-poster-115875-21945618/
121. In fact not even UKIP has gone down the ultra social conservative road - you won’t find much religious-based stuff there. Which reinforces your point - there is barely any basis for that kind of conservatism in the UK.
@136:
The Tea Party movement seems to be based (in part, at least) on a genuine emerging Libertarian counterculture.
I don’t think anyone would mistake the post-Dubya GOP for Libertarians.
129. But the opinion writers in the papers are just as bad.
110 Eric, we have no means of knowing how the Sky Election-plaything-gizmo distributes votes by region. I stand by my earlier point, that until we have polls showing the Midlands has swung markedly back to supporting Labour, its marginal-rich environment makes a hung Parliament less likely…
123 TC , In 2005 the Conservatives raised £ 13.5 million in donations total Income £ 24.2 million , Campaign expenditure was £ 15.7 million and total expenditure £ 39.2 million , net debts increased from just £ 3 million to £ 18 million . They did then have Smith Square as a tangible asset but that of course has since been sold . I think make forecast of Conservative debt at the end of this year of £ 14-20 million is optimistic .
116. Also worth noting is the hijacking of the met office by leftist warmists.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6924898/The-Met-Office-gives-us-the-warmist-weather.html
But in the past three years, with the Met Office chaired by Robert Napier, a former global warming activist and previously head of WWF UK, its pretensions have been exposed as never before.
Off to battle through half an inch of snow to the post office.
I’ve just been told there are a significant number of no-shows from London-based staff at a major Whitehall department.
Unless they have childcare issues they are prime candidates for the post-election cull. Lazy gits.
@139:
“REVEALED”?!
It’s obvious to anyone with half a functioning brain (i.e. not Mirror readers) that the picture is airbrushed.
Dave looks like he’s made of moulded rubber.
139
tim we discussed that some time ago. its a non story now as it was then.
142 - There’s no real excuse for that. I won’t try make one. But some dead-tree columnists are brilliant. I tend to stick to the sports ones and the funny ones such as Clarkson.
Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic…er…
When was the last picture of a politician on a poster put out by their own party not digitally enhanced in some way?
128. Er, because no party will ever come anywhere near to convincing a majority of the voters!
47 - “The problem with Major is that he inherited Thatcher’s public popularity…”
Sorry, Seth, where’s your evidence for that? Thatcher’s approval rating with MORI (i.e. comparable with Mike’s figures) were 25% by the end - lower than Brown now. For much of her period in office, she was an asset for the Tories. There is no question but that she was a liability by the end.
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
147 - Bob Ainsworth has signed up to “Touched up by Daves people”
http://turbo.inquisitr.com/wp-content/2009/10/George_Clooney.jpg
Meantime Dave has a (secret) performance with this orange day time TV presenter tomorrow.
Can anyone guess who it is?
http://hub.tv-ark.org.uk/images/otherchannels/goingplaces_images/goingplacestv_promo1_2003.jpg
135 - Au contraire, her poll favourables are quite high. She is very much up there with front runners like Romney and Huckabee.
129 David Roe. Most journalists write on one subject in one article each day. Investing a few hours of research based on previous knowledge of what to look for and who to trust is all that is required.
There is also the need to be a specialist and not a generalist. What the papers seem to have is lots of generalists and very few specialists. That results in articles that are badly written because they lack knowledge.
Why would I bother with what the Telegraph/Guardian/Times/Mail have to say about the latest poll when OGH or Anthony Wells gives a much better informed view?
Democrtic Republic of the Congo - or has that gone now?
139.
Feeble, tim, just feeble. And even more feeble of you to actually bother to link us to that feeble example of Daily Mirror sadness.
The weather is getting to you. You seem sluggish and torpid. Perhaps you are… cold blooded?
I’m assuming that from Tim’s tone of snideness, Labour would never dream of airbrushing any pictures of Gordon. Being as how he looks like such a lean, mean fighting machine.
If there will actually be any pictures of him in the campaign, that is. I suspect he will figure in less than 5% of literature put out. Even that may be on the high side…
116. The other thing I love about the Independent article is the map, supposed to show that it is globally hotter: as ever with these surface temperature assertions it ignores the sea. And the anti-warmists are the ‘flat-earthers’.
158, no, you’re bang up to date.
155.
Airbrushing is digital - look at this analogue version
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mEKbaD7FgbU/SAX9fuleU3I/AAAAAAAAAAc/IlF1FTmaHOc/s1600-h/blob2%5B1%5D.jpg
@150:
You did tim’s test for him. YOU CHEATER.
You could also, if you’re feeling pedantic, you could also have DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA and DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO.
158 No, that is a good one - still its current name, AFAIK.
149. Yes David but we are not talking about sport or cars here, but politics and current affairs - on which subjects the standard of writing in the newspapers is abysmal.
144 Mark Senior just for once take my word on this. There are millions being set aside for the Conservative campaign and there will be no vast deficit after the election.
The real questions that will arise is how the Labour party with 135k members and the LDs with 55k members will fund their operations post the GE.
139 Shock horror tim! Politician has image retouched for posters. You’ll be telling us next that Gordon Brown has teams of speechwriters, image consultants and advisers, and doesn’t do it all by himself. I won’t believe you of course.
139. Oh my god. Game over for tories. Where can I get the best price for a Labour win? Why does Cameron not understand that serious party leaders are so adept at applying makeup that virtual retouching is otiose? Did he not foresee the strapline for the forthcoming Labour campaign: Gordon - Because He’s Worth it?”
Slap on the face for PM
By NICK PARKER
Published: 11 May 2009
Add a comment Add a comment (31)
GORDON Brown was red-faced again last night after his MAKE-UP tips were left in a taxi by a bungling aide.
The note, among a pile of sensitive documents, told the craggy-faced PM how to apply layers of slap and fake tan.
It adds to his embarrassment after the MPs’ expenses row. It came as details of Tory expenses emerged. There are also security concerns.
The file contained details of Mr Brown’s trip to Yorkshire last week.
A white A4 sheet listed Mr Brown’s make-up routine if he has to do it himself. It read:
1. Transparent Brush. Foam all over. This is believed to be an illuminating foam to give the PM’s face that certain glow.
2. Small pot under eyes, dimple, creases, blend in. This refers to the use of concealer to smooth out facial bumps and blemishes.
3. Clinique. Super balanced make-up. All over again, like painting a wall, and ears. Shut eyes over lids then with make-up pad smooth over liquid. This tells the PM to trowel foundation over his whole face.
4. Powder (dark brush) terracotta Guerlain, all over. Slap on fake tan bronzer.
make up
Taking the shine off … powder
A Westminster insider said: “It’s an idiot’s guide to applying heavy make-up. It will cause deep embarrassment because the PM paints himself as a no-nonsense man’s man.”
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2422245.ece#ixzz0bpGlYrAw
159: He’s just ramping up for the election proper, expect day after day of alleged gaffe’s, rifts, and other non-stories with link after link of rubbish…
What fun.
How can Cameron support the NHS if he still has Daniel Hannam as a policy advisor for the election? Hannam’s anti NHS views are well known and well publicised.
Furthermore one advocate of the Tories’ false Broken Britain scenario has been forced to resign as leader of Romford Conservatives because of a third criminal offence. What a dodgy bunch they are.
160 - Thats not airbushing, that’s reconstruction.
Sensible piece here
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23791615-dave-gordon-and-nick—the-three-legged-race-is-on.do
Whether it was wise to link the words “NHS” and “cuts” in a poster, and thus leave everyone wondering what would be cut if not health, is questionable, but it betrays Mr Cameron’s fear that the health service remains a Conservative vote-loser.
A good couple of days for Clegg I think.
*** IMPORTANT QUESTION ***
I now have a Kindle (which the Baby Jesus got me for his Birthday, via the PBC affiliate link).
I was thinking of subscribing to a Newspaper through it. I have never subscribed to a paper before. Which one shall I choose?
I’m leaning towards the Labourgraph.
169 It’s tim’s advanced “News Sense”…
He can spot a non-story at 1000 paces.
172 - What are your criteria for a good newspaper?
I’ve just had a look at the 2008 accounts for Labour and the tories (sad I know). Superficially they look similar, with Labour perhaps having a bit more debt. So I dug a bit.
Labour are in big trouble. Not only do they have the income problem as noted by Dale, they also have growing pension liabilities.
In 2007, both Labour and the tories had long term debts (creditors over 12 months) of 4 million a piece. In 2008, the tories were still 4 million, but Labour’s had jumped to *9.5 million*. That’s despite the fact that the accounts look better because of the conversion of loans to donations.
In other words, to survive, they’ve converted short term debt to long term debt. If you look at the accounts from 2005-8, the improvement in tory finances and deterioration in Labour’s is staggering.
See for yourself here.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/database-of-registers/statements-of-account
@174:
TBH, I’m far from convinced such a thing exists.
I quite like the FT for being dry and dull.
171 “A good couple of days for Clegg I think.”
If you exclude him coming across as a snotty superior student politico on R5, you mean?
Have you entirely given up on Labour now tim?
Compare and contrast that warmist waffle from the Indy at post 116, with this article from the same newspaper in 2000:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Choice quote:
‘According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.’
David, darling, you can maybe hide the decline, but it’s quite hard to hide five billion f*cking tons of snow. lol.
166 TC , why should I take your word for that statement being true , what position do you hold in the Conservative Party to be able to say that with any confidence ? The evisence from the published party accounts over the last few years shows quite strongly that you are bullsh1tting .
176 - The FT weekend paper is the best newspaper in the country all week, in my opinion. A real hidden gem.
Do you read a newspaper for the news, the sport, the opinions, celebrity gossip, lifestyle stuff or the scantily-clad good-looking people?
141 - There is a pretty dark undercurrent to it, the prevalence of outright racist slurs, of threats of violence and so on is indicative.
I think the Dems are happy to let that fester, they don’t need to point out what is there until they need to.
The true libertarians would do well to keep away, the people who support it are those who don’t so much want small government as government that welds christianity to politics.
I beleive that I can accuratly predict that 95% of tims posts will be about the tories, and less than 5% about what labour is doing.
tim is predictable if nothing else.
156 - Her favourables are quite high but her unfavourables are a lot higher. She’s simply better known than her GOP rivals. Also, she has a problem in that her favourable ratings are likeability ratings - when pollsters ask the “fit to be President?” question, her rating falls away.
179. Mark - do you hold a financial qualification?
144 Mark Senior et al
It is absurd to analyse the political party’s annual accounts and draw conclusions from them about their ability to fund a General Election campaign.
It would be like trying to determine whether London could fund the 2012 Olympic Games by analysing the 2009 annual accounts of the British National Olympic Committee.
180 - “The FT weekend paper is the best newspaper in the country all week, in my opinion.”
By a mile.
Paddy Power’s election debate special is not available at the moment for some reason. In the Anne McElvoy article that tim links to, she notes:
“The Liberal Democrat leader is likely to be the beneficiary of the televised debates as the least familiar, but perfectly telegenic performer.”
I agree and am very happy with my bets on him to win the debate at 7/2.
@180:
That’s the problem, isn’t it. I get all the news, the sport, the opinions, celebrity gossip, lifestyle stuff and the scantily-clad good-looking people I need from PBC.
175. Labour’s position is only going to worsen thanks to Class War 2.0. the 50& tax hike, and the bank bonus levy.
Some of this stuff may have been popular with core Labour dole scroungers, sorry, voters, but the party is now reviled and despised by big companies, the City, and rich people. The kind of people who donate to political parties.
No wonder Earl Mandypoo was so agitated by Brown’s Eton shtick. He could see potential donors melting away with every syllable.
“One senior cabinet minister admits that the next election is as good as lost, but that under Brown what would otherwise be a narrow defeat will be converted into a walloping that could take 20 years to reverse. “It’s a complete disaster,” he says, his voice rising.”
One example of the main advantages that current paper journalists have, that of access. The above quote is by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian.
http://tinyurl.com/yd52zjx
But who could be the male senior cabinet minister? Straw?, Darling? Many?, Johnson?, DMilliband? Those are really the only male seniors. of these I could really only see Mandy or Straw uttering the words.
@187:
Which strongly suggests that Ms McElvoy has never bothered to watch his snarly and unconvincing “angry man” PMQ performances.
177 - Cleggs positioning, attacking Labour on high marginal taxes at the bottom and Conservatives for tax cuts for the richest is perfect.
Particularly when the two main parties are squabbling without revealing substance.
As for Daves poster, I’m just surprised that they did such a complete makeover, given that people already suspect he’s too superficial.
172: Martin Coxall @ 10:21
I shouldn’t bother with the Labourgraph, its news coverage these days is woeful (very thin and too much regurgitation of press reports) and the leading articles/comments pages are pretty dire (e.g. Mary Ridell and Simon Heffer). It has fallen a long, long way from its days as a serious family newspaper. The only reason I still take it is the crossword and the letters page.
The Cameron poster is all over canary wharf and docklands
190 - All Cabinet ministers when quoted anonymously are by definition senior. Them’s the rules. In just the same way that all backbenchers are senior. That said, my money is on Peter Mandelson, the phrasing has all his cadences, even in Jonathan Freedland’s recasting of the words.
@193 (et al.)
Sounds like I’m being driven into the arms of the FT then. I’ll start a two-week free trial of the Kindle edition, see if I like it.
188 - Then why bother? I rarely buy a newspaper; usually only when I’ve got a weekend train journey.
190. I disagree. The journos think this ‘access’ gives them some kind of advantage in terms of producing good copy, but in fact it has just converted them into mouthpieces for the parties and factions within them. Hence their articles are invariably little more than regurgitated spin and provide little real info to the reader.
On the other hand
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2010/01/06/looming-election-brings-labour-together/
183 - All true but, when your support is as vehement as hers is that can overcome many things, there are also polls that show her unfavourables are declining (outside Alaska at least), since the publication of her rambling collection of lies, half truths and small town homilies.
All the current main potential candidates have a reach problem, Romney’s a flip flopping Mormon who introduced ’socialised’ health care to his state, Huckabee’s a creationist big spender etc.
On last nights thread an interesting column by Freedland on the internal politics of Labour and why plots fail. Its never quite the right time, Brown’s expertise in internal gamesmanship and fear of his gang, no obvious leader, no obvious big policy differences (though thats becoming less true) and maybe the hope that if Brown is beaten comprehensively then his approach and his associates will be out of the game.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/05/cowardice-labour-regicide-brown-coup
170 Sirus
Conservative election advisers are not selected on the basis of their policy views or political knowledge. The decision is purely based on which public school they went to.
Get with the times.
Mark Senior January 6th, 2010 at 10:27 am
What was spent at the Euros in 2009? Answer the Conservatives spent the most, double that of the Lib Dems.
201: Problem for the plotters is that the policy differences are now more ‘big picture’ issues, rather than singles issues. For example it’s easy to say ‘I’m against the Iraq war’, than ‘I’m against the fiscal policy’
In addition Labour are pretty unclear as to what on earth their economic policy is anyway, are they cutting? Are they investing? Who really knows?
If they felt the need to airbrush the Cameron poster, I wish they’d had the decency to airbrush a fecking tie onto him. Scruffy b’stard.
153 Sir Norfolk
where’s your evidence for that?
I have no evidence beyond personal experience and intuition. This added to measureless depths of ignorance has led me to my conclusions.
I remain open-minded though and should you have any expert evidence or opinions to hand which contradicts my conclusions, I would be happy to learn from them and correct my mistakes.
190 TC - That’s a very sensible article by Jonathan Freedland.
However I don’t think antifrank at 195 is correct. Mandy is not, as far as we can tell, arguing that Brown should be defenestrated in order to limit the losses, as the anonymous ‘Senior Cabinet Minster’ apparently is.
It could be any one of several. Straw? Darling? Johnson?
But it hardly matters now anyway. They’ve set their course, chosen their Captain, and are heading for the rocks.
203 so what , that tells us nothing on what the parties’ net debts will be at the end of 2009 or after a GE campaign at the end of 2010 . The Conservatives went into 2005 with net debts of £ 3 million and at the end of the GE campaign year had net debts of £ 18 million . That has been reduced to £ 7.46 million primarily through the sale of Smith Square .
192. a. Actually I think in the Cameron piccy it might be actual makeup. Photoshopping flesh in closeup is not easy or cheap; so why pay someone to spend a day doing on a computer what can be done with Max Factor in half an hour?
b.People expect to be presented with an enhanced view of reality in advertisements.
c. No one blogged yesterday that the picture was touched up, so it’s not that outrageously obvious a makeover.
209 to TC at 204
When was the last picture of a politician on a poster put out by their own party not digitally enhanced in some way?
by antifrank January 6th, 2010 at 10:10 am
OMG do you mean that Gordo looks even worse au naturale!!!!
192 tim: would that be the 40% plus that say they will vote for him, or the 25% of dimwitted gullible prats who would vote for McDoom, Balls et Al
192 - I usually agree with your general take on politics (underneath the propagandising), but I disagree this time. Nick Clegg is falling into the usual Lib Dem trap of “a plague on all your houses”. He is not at all good at dealing with love-bombing and comes across like a coy virgin in a nightclub. Whatever the words, he looks and sounds as if he is out of his depth in serious politics.
Politics over the next few years is going to be dominated by the theme of honesty. All parties are deeply distrusted by the public for a variety of reasons.
I’ve come to the conclusion, after a couple of days, that the Tory poster is quite good. The message is right, the picture is not so good. 6/10. The message is right because if the Conservatives wish to govern with any authority, they need to win an election without shying away from the hard times ahead and to be able to say: “we told you it wasn’t going to be easy”. It would be better to lose the election than to win on a false prospectus. It makes a single clear commitment and doesn’t duck the need for cuts elsewhere. The bulk of the public isn’t in a mood for platitudes and a simple single message would raise as many doubts as it settled.
The picture is wrong, not because David Cameron is airbrushed, but because it’s too lonely. The cult of Dave isn’t the problem, the problem is that it makes the Conservatives look atomised. It would have been better to have had a picture of David Cameron meeting nurses in a hospital in the background, or some scene like that.
I have been giving thought to what is going to happen to Labour if it loses the election. It’s a very interesting line of thought and I may put together something for pb2 if I get time.
209 - I remember Man Utd taking on debt to supersize Old Trafford in the early / mid 90s and fantasising about their failure to meet cashflow projections and defaulting and going out of business (I really didnt like Man Utd). I think Mark may be guilty of similar wishful thinking (or else he just doesnt have a point). In the early / mid 90s I was a young teenager; what’s Mark’s excuse?
206: Sir Norfolk Passmore @ 10:42
“If they felt the need to airbrush the Cameron poster, I wish they’d had the decency to airbrush a fecking tie onto him. Scruffy b’stard.”
Well said, sir! When I saw the pictures of the poster my first thought was, “He could have at least put a bloody tie on”. However, I suspect that you and I are in a very, very small minority.
Not that being in a minority matters. If a man aspires to lead then he must set the standard he expects.
207 - The evidence is in the MORI polls linked to in Mike’s article.
Look, Thatcher was clearly a significant PM and had periods of strong popularity. But she was a drag on her party towards the end and it’s simply inaccurate to say Major won in 1992 because of rather than despite her period in office earlier in that term.
There’s a tendency from Thatcher loyalists to create this myth of a still popular PM deposed by malign forces. I don’t really think you need to do that to have a favourable view of her Premiership as a whole, and it just isn’t backed up by evidence.
196 antifrank
Just like all KGB agents were Colonels.
Have you even read of one that didn’t have this rank?
Snow update - well I’m really glad that the Met Office are able to predict what the winter weather will be like in 100yrs. The forecast for my town has gone from:
No snow
Light snow
Rain
Heavy snow
in the last 12hrs.
I came across this absolutely cracking speech by the late Michael Crichton on the cargo cult-like mentality of computer model followers.
http://www.michaelcrichton.net/speech-alienscauseglobalwarming.html
211 Yes he does - Over a meal at Christmas my sister said to a cousin staying with us “If you think Gordon Brown looks awful on TV you should see him in person”
That Simon Heffer article on Gladstone only confirmed my suspicions. Anyone who prefers Gladstone to Disraeli is a tedious old scrote who doesn’t understand the need for a bit of swagger in their politicians.
Lib Dems obviously exempted from that- I understand loyalty.
“It would be better to lose the election than to win on a false prospectus. ”
An interesting point to consider is at what point a party has a duty to the country rather than itself, it’s the right thing to be realistic but if that means you are up against someone who is promising the undeliverable or the downright dangerous should you just let it happen?
re 213. I think there is a clause in the Labour party book that says that election defeats are to be followed by internecine war-fare that can go on for decades.
222 - There is certainly the potential this time. The broad thrust of my thinking is that Labour’s big risk is not that it has two schools of thought but that it will have closer to 20 schools of thought as to where it should go from any defeat. Reconstituting the New Labour coalition is not going to be easy at all. I’m starting to come to the view that the Lib Dems might have a real opportunity to supplant them in the next two or three elections.
A well known ad agency ditty
“When the client moans and sighs
Make his logo twice the size.
When the client’s hopping mad,
Put his picture in the ad.” (Anon)
The Mirror retouch story made me laugh out loud. I heard Angelina jolie say she complained because they retouched her nipples out on the posters for lara Croft because they weren’t ‘child friendly’. “If nipples aren’t child friendly what is!”
73. Coldstone your name is enough to freeze everything in your area.
185 Apropos of anything, runnymede?
Legal. But I did do a deal to raise several hundred million dollars for my company last year… (I’m willing to be reasonably open with people who come to the pb.com drinks - on a Chatham House Rules basis!)
218 Ours moved from 25cm plus to none and woke up to 6cm, another 3cm since. Friend phoned as he had just heard that we are cut off.
225: Seeing as you work in the ad industry rog, how many pictures of people go out on billboards without being retouched? Any?
Today is the most important PMQs for weeks.
Because so many people are home due to the snow, it will probably get a much bigger audience than usual.
223. That’s good to know. Some people won’t do anything if it’s not approved by the rule book.
I saw the Cameron poster outside work last night and it just instantly brought to mind Paul Whicker, the tall vicar, from Viz.
That’s not a good thing!
re 226. Coldstone used to call himself Grumpy old Man.
Odds and sods:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/6938153/Decimal-odds—the-bettings-off.html
On topic, it would be interesting to compare the figures against Heath in 1973-4, the most recent PM who most closely resembles Brown’s character and personality.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8442761.stm
Mandy’s having to pull Brown of of his fiscal hole.
Today is the most important PMQs for weeks.
Because so many people are home due to the snow, it will probably get a much bigger audience than usual.
by wibbler January 6th, 2010 at 11:02 am
You’re joking - If I was off work I’d be in the pub, not huddled over a TV watching boring politics.
225 The worst look-at-me ads I ever saw were for the Pru when Peter Davis was in charge.
232 Probably better than thinking Roger Melly, though!
I’d quite like there to be a really, REALLY sweary politician…all his interviews have to be taped and bleeped. Their Conference speech would have people on the edge of their seats!
227. MMark - my question was actually directed at your namesake, the sage of Sussex…
226
The first snow has just arrived.
Grumpy Old Man was dropped at the request of my fan, (yes one) and someone else turned up using that name.
Don’t forget Andrew Neil is intving Head of Met Office on DP
239 - I have used “mother****er” in unexpurgated form to an audience of 300. It got a very satisfying reaction.
230 Surely there’s something better on. Pages from Ceefax perhaps?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfC8M-mTBMM
You have to love the net.
Richard Nabavi January 6th, 2010 at 10:45 am
I agree that there will be no coup. A spineless bunch. FWIW My money would be on Straw as the cab minister that spoke to Freedland. Barbara Castle picked him for his deviousness.
As to Mark Senior, you see things only through anti-tory glasses.
214 - All Clegg had to do was position himself between shallow on marriage, for the rich Dave and tired Labour, and he’s managed that fine for now.
229 - Its not a retouch, its a total makeover,change of nose shape lip size etc.
Its Dale Wintonesque.
216 Sir Norfolk
The MORI polls give aggregrate figures of approval ratings. They don’t break down the figures into reasons for approving or disapproving. We are told ‘how many’ not ‘why’.
I am sure there has been research into this question but I don’t have access to it. So my conclusions are purely speculative and personal.
That said, I am not trying to be a Thatcher apologist. The matricide committed by the Tories was deeply divisive both within the party, its supporters and the wider country. It is my view that the Conservatives are only now beginning to recover from its effects.
Whatever one’s personal views of Thatcher, the aftermath of her deposition generated a wave of sympathetic support. Major was her annointed successor and he won the leadership election as a loyalist (with a toothache) rather than as an assassin or impartial observer. He was taken on by the party faithful and electorate ‘on trust’.
This must have influenced his poll ratings. By how much I do not know, and I would be interested to discover an expert view. My guess is that the influence was substantial and that was the thrust of my original post.
244 TC and you see things only through blue tinted glasses .
Daily Politics prog today has Toenails, 1 Tory and 3 Labour supporters.
Tam Strathclyde, Chris Bryant, Nick Robinson, Will Hutton, Frank Field.
236 Stackbladder, I thought one response from Byrne on Newsnight was revealing of the Brown Balls approach to spending & deficit reduction. He said they couldn’t set departmental spending at this time because unemployment might fall faster than they expected and as a result there could be £5bn or so less to be spent there which would then be available for departmental spending.
So if the Treasury gets more tax or has to pay less benefit forget the deficit spend the windfall - its like Balls saying X is fully funded because they have taken it from another budget, not that its covered by income.
Did note also the Treasury has claimed it doesn’t have an unemployment forecast, but Mr Byrne thinks it does.
248 - Fair’s fair. Can you really call Frank Field a Labour supporter?
Since the media are now only interested in the weather today, the rest of the news, including political, will probably on a back burner.
Unless of course, a major tragedy or happening happens. (is that good english?)
Therefor I propose an amnesty today, and only attack Labour.
245, if only he had Brown’s photogenic powers:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_bEGvu4VNi6Y/Sa6DZyu9HRI/AAAAAAAABAs/w81Y7zQyZ1E/s400/brown+blob.jpg
Poor man, being Tango’ed just before being photographed.
249
Did note also the Treasury has claimed it doesn’t have an unemployment forecast,
About 3 seconds thought shows that is an obvious lie.. It’s like the Treasury saying they don’t have plans to cut the deficit..
Errr..
Well that’s at least one headcount saving to be made…
Mark Senior January 6th, 2010 at 11:11 am “244 TC and you see things only through blue tinted glasses.”
Since I criticised Cameon several times on here over his marriage tax co** up on Monday I do not think you are correct.
How about looking at politics though a less tainted view? The readers on here are not really looking for views on how to vote, more how to understand the betting implications.
116-What roobish. Funnily enough Spanish tv is going on about what a cold winter it has been…in Spain.
“Independent, it isn’t, are you?”
253: Essentially it’s the treasury throwing it’s hands in the air and running around saying ‘I don’t know whats going on’.
I mean I can understand there being a certain level of uncertainity, but as they can provide forecast GDP movement (even if they are fantasy), to then say they don’t know how unemployment they forecast to develop must simply not be true. (More accurately they just won’t say)
Sirus January 6th, 2010 at 10:20 am
You say a politician honourably resigned. Can’t be in the Labour party then. That august body has excised ‘take responsibility and resign’ from their lexicon.
From Eric Pickles and ConHome
“The returning officers for the last five UK parliamentary by-elections have provided the following estimates of the number of postal ballot packs handed in at polling stations on polling day:
Glasgow North East (12 November 2009) - 270
Norwich North (23 July 2009) - 180
Glenrothes (6 November 2008) - 125
Glasgow East (24 July 2008) - 116
Haltemprice and Howden (10 July 2008) - 180″
http://tinyurl.com/ylaqcpr
It would be good if all the MPs and Cllrs who read this site would engage with their Returning Officers to keep alive Election night.
O/T but just when you thought this government’s morals couldn’t sink any lower.
Lady Scotland - had she been around in the 1940s - would no doubt have been busy in the docks giving a warm, no-questions-asked welcome to all the fleeing members of the Nazi regime. We must be the only civilised country which is actively making it easier for potential war criminals to seek sanctuary.
249 - There is nothing wrong with that logic (well, except that it is a very poor excuse to not reveal post election spending plans). The fiscal tightening will be savage. If spending in one area is a little lower then making the cuts elsewhere slightly less savage is not unreasonable.
I’d have thought a politician would be wise enough not to make himself a hostage to fortune by appearing on a poster in the first place but having done so he should have made sure that only blemishes were removed. Reconstructive surgery by airbrush wont go down well in Bootle.
The first serious row about retouching/airbrushing I remember was for a Calvin Cline underwear poster in Cambridge Circus. Unfortunately I can’t find it but the two photographer’s who shot this admitted to lots of post production.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/alltherage/images/2007/12/11/300beckham.jpg
Whenever I see Heffer I am reminded of the Landburgher Gessler. [nostalgic smear]
Morning all,
Well I don’t have much to say about Mike’s articles. I don’t think it is of much surprise to anyone that Brown is less popular than Gentleman Jim or marginally less popular than John Major.
Moving on I spotted this on Conhome this morning:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2010/01/not-a-single-labour-backbencher-yesterday-spoke-in-favour-of-the-load-of-nonsense-that-is-the-govern.html
And it crossed my mind that whilst we have all been speculating about whether and how Brown might be disposed of, that none of us had considered the possibility of Brown losing a major piece of legislation and as a result being driven to call the election (even facing a vote of no confidence possibly?).
Is it as has seemed the case for a while now an impossibility or is there a chance that Labour rebels could precipitate a crisis for Brown through voting down a piece of Brown’s legislation?
Good for Peter Mandelson.
But managing a family’s household budget is not the same as managing the public finances prudently.
At a time of low private sector activity, government spending provides vital demand. Pull away that prop for the economy and you reduce the tax take, push up spending on unemployment and make the deficit worse. This is the paradox of government thrift. We learnt it in the 1930s. It seems to be totally lost on the present day Conservative party.”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/mandy-attacks-osborne-dumps-thatchernomics.html
Gideonomics = Massive rise in unemployment.
171 The idea that people are either for or against the NHS, as if it were a football team, is what has got us into the current mess.
Roll back a few years and the view promoted in the UK was that the NHS was the envy of the rest of the world.
Then it dawned that outcomes were in fact better elsewhere and the new line, coined by Derek Wanless (who went on to grater fame at Northern Rock) was that there was nothing wrong with the NHS that a bit more money wouldn’t fix. So billions were poured in, mostly to the payroll, without reform.
Only now are people starting to believe that some reform to the NHS may be advisable, whilst maintaining universal free coverage. But in order to debate what reforms may be helpful you first have to accept that the answer to every question is not to spend more.
261. Don’t think the Conservatives are really aiming to win Bootle…
262
Nah.
Gessler was too ’smiley’.
Second thread derail and its only 11.30 tim, you are running late today.
@264:
No, tim, government spending doesn’t create demand. Mandelson’s trying to square a thoroughly unsquarable circle, and I admire him for it, but he knows that’s bullshit. Fortunately for him, he also knows dimwitted lefties will believe him.
259 - Chris A.
So you’ve either
a.Done an investigation into the four Israeli soldiers and decided that they are war criminals.
or.
b.Decided that all Israeli soldiers are war criminals.
My money is on b.
tim which would you prefer as a supporter of one of the two main parties.
Cameron’s poster picture or this one of Brown?
http://file.shanghaidaily.com/News/Image/2009/2009-12/2009-12-13/20091213_422543_01.jpg
Note were the link comes from.
262. Maybe.
http://www.filmdope.com/Gallery/ActorsG/25538-3215.gif
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/images/simon_heffer_1.gif
268 - Substance please, or walk the dog.
261 Roger
won’t go down well in Bootle.
Given that Bootle is about the safest Labour seat (16k majority - 75% of the vote) in the country, I don’t think anyone on the right is going to be too surprised that anything David Cameron has done
won’t go down well in Bootle.
[YAWN]
@273:
JUST SAY NO.
You might like to ponder, as I have, who started the ‘airbrush’ meme after considering how much the meme draws attention to the poster itself and its message.
Roger can probably give us a Saatchi term for this but would call it cost free added impact.
Nice to know the tagteam is working for the Tories.
273:tim calling for substance..hilarious.
264 tim
But Margaret Thatcher did manage the economy like a family budget and - surprise, surprise - it worked. Not perfectly, but sufficiently well to reverse Britain’s economic decline and improve its world competitiveness.
A complex problem but like the Gordian Knot there is sometimes a simple solution.
Mandelson does however put a strong and eloquent argument. One that would convince more voters than anything coming out of the mouths of Balls, Darling or Brown.
263
Labour back-benchers won’t speak in favour but you’ll see them trooping through the government lobby when push comes to shove.
Labour can’t choose the grounds on which they fight the next GE but they can choose their tactics and they can drag this government out to the last weary second.
More floatynice on the way
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/media-demand-new-words-for-%27snow%27-201001062356/
Met Chief ill-advised to go on Daily Politics
Who should succeed Toenails? Kuennsberg!
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/01/who-should-succeed-nick-robinson.html
270. There’s no evidence from that link that Mandelson has any real understanding of the economics of the 1930s.
264 In which case, tim, why not borrow more, and spend more?
We’ve just had the worst fall in GDP since time immemorial. Are you saying Brown should have borrowed another £100bn or two and spent it on pet projects (maybe some more intrusive but useless databases, paying advertising agencies to big up government policy, paying people to build sandcastles, that sort of thing)?
@282:
She should do more than that. She should kill him and eat his liver.
259. ChrisA Unfortunately the Israelis believe they unlike their opponents should be immune from being charged with war crimes. However I can’t see anything in the article you posted where Baroness Scotland is offering any sort of immunity on British soil?
285 Martin Coxall
Have you ever eaten human liver? It needs strong seasoning and benefits from herbs like rosemary and thyme. Baby livers better than adult too.
All said, delicious!
264 tim, you have grasped one half of the basics of Keynesianism. Trouble is, the other half says you do this with the money you salted away in the good years.
288, meh. Labour do the same now as in the good times. Tax too much, spend more than received in tax receipts, borrow the difference. They have fiscal diarrhoea.
Who should succeed Toenails? Kuennsberg!
Maybe, or Bradby or Lansdale, but not red Peston.
I know these things need to be taken with a pinch of salt but the palace of westminster is alive with well sourced rumours that there will be a move against GB immediately after PMQs
264 ‘Gideonomics’
tim, a little bit of anti-semitism today. Maybe you could direct us to a nicely photoshopped picture of a former party leader togged up as Fagin?
287. Don’t forget you need fava beans and a good chianti to wash it down with as well….
tim, not at all. To coin a phrase if they’ve done nothing wrong they’ve got nothing to fear - so therefore they can come here with impunity. After all what could be so terrible about answering for their actions in an open court if necessary?
We ban Mugabe, others, we change the law to protect them. It’s disgusting.
Roger what the quote “is looking urgently at ways in which the UK system might be changed to avoid this situation arising again and is determined that Israel’s leaders should always be able to travel freely to the UK.”
Again we’ve banned Mugabe summarily, all we want to do is test the ALLEGATIONS against the Israelis.
276. Even you Witan can’t think that a poster saying the leader of the opposition wants to improve the NHS (Dogs bark-The Pope’s….) would counteract the negative impact that Cameron’s had his eyes widened his lips botoxed and his hair thickened so he’d look better on a poster?
289. Indeed Labour are fiscally dysfunctional….
283 “Mandelson has any real understanding of the economics of the 1930s.”
‘real’? He has absolutely no understanding. The National and then Conservative governments’ fiscal and economic record was a good one.
We were well out of recession well before the US and with an expanding economy before WWII.
Roosevelt’s New Deal which, no doubt, Mandelson and the rest of his Labour chums praise to the rooftops did nothing for the US economy in the ’30s.
It was the need for WWII war production that boosted the US out of recession and nothing like the Mandelsonian economic and fiscal policy that they advocate now for us.
Why do the BBC consider Will Hutton as an economic and financial expert?
Mind you, they did consider Menzies Campbell as a Foreign policy expert
293. I don’t see anything wrong with allowing Israeli leaders to travel here with impunity. Israel is an important ally. Comparing them to Mugabe is disgusting.
294 Roger
Cameron didn’t have his lips botoxed out of vanity or intent to deceive. It was merely a protest against the advertising industry using Size Zero models.
Roger well you are doing your bit to get people to look at the poster again and again to see if they agree.
I am sure CCHQ thanks you for your service and looks forward to your critique of the next poster to similarly enhance its impact.
297 And this from the party who thought IDS was an electable PM!
301 - I never thought IDS was electable, I voted for Ken Clarke but then again the Tories aren’t the state broadcaster, funded by a regressive tax.
Heroin?
Planted first question. Come on Bercow.
The Screaming Eagles January 6th, 2010 at 11:57 am “Why do the BBC consider Will Hutton as an economic and financial expert? Mind you, they did consider Menzies Campbell as a Foreign policy expert”
Because they are lefties and in Hutton’s case he is an ex employee so he must be OK.
Yay Cameron going for the Pimco/Balls line
297: ‘Why do the BBC consider Will Hutton as an economic and financial expert?’
Hutton was on Newsnight yesterday. Paxman was so appalled by the blatant pro-Brown propaganda he was pushing that he practically told him to shut up.
Well said Eagles.
302 Tune in to the Tory channels on Sky 984 through 999.
CTories is the right-wing channel for the under fives. George Osborne is currently reading Milton Friendman on Jackatory.
Imagine, Cameron having the audacity to ask questions of the PM at PMQ’s!!
Brown is losing it…..
310 - MM, Prime Minister’s Question, is an opportunity for the PM to ask questions to Cameron.
What’s this on grauniad?
Breaking news:
LATEST: Former cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt to make statement on Gordon Brown’s leadership after PMQs. More details soon …
312 Sorry, forgotten that. You are right.
313 - OOOOOH.
Breaking news:
LATEST: Former cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt to make statement on Gordon Brown’s leadership after PMQs. More details soon …
From guardian website breaking news
313 Oooooooooooooooooooooh!
Brown lies,
Brown spins,
Brown twists in the wind….
What is Gordon on??!!! He’s flayling about.
FSA goes after former iSoft directors
It is has only taken three and half years, but the FSA has finally started (criminal) proceedings against former directors of iSoft, the healthcare software company that was one of the key players in the government’s bungled £6.2bn upgrade of NHS computer systems.
Wasn’t Digby Jones associated with iSoft [Director?]?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/01/06/120861/fsa-goes-after-former-isoft-directors/
298. Hutton is mates with a lot of BBC people. And perhaps the only person they can find who will always take the Labour line.
313. If Hoon does the right thing, I promise I won’t talk about what an enormous throbbing gland he is until after the GE.
WTF Brown has a good gag.
Brown’s made an unscripted joke!!!
Does Brown really think this will win over voters?
*shakes head in dismay….*
I love you Darling
Okay
It’s a very entertaining Prime Minister’s Questions.
Jack Straw does not look the picture of support behind Gordon.
Is he the “senior cabinet minister” we are trying to out?
Afternoon all and just to say that probably in commmon with several other PBers I have been YouGov’d today with very political questions, many about Gordon Brown v David Cameron v Nick clegg. Also question about whether another Labour PM would do better etc. Presumably for one of the Sunday papers.
its ask the opposition questions by the looks of it … desperate stuff
“Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt launch new Gordon Brown challenge”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6977685.ece
319. Plato
Brown is Gabble…
Remember the definition:
gab·ble (gbl)
v. gab·bled, gab·bling, gab·bles
v.intr.
1. To speak rapidly or incoherently; jabber.
2. To make rapid, low muttering or quacking sounds, as a goose or duck.
v.tr.
To utter rapidly or incoherently.
n.
1. Rapid, incoherent, or meaningless speech.
2. The low muttering sound of a goose or duck.
Brown’s argument is “I’m right, you were wrong x 20″
That is an interesting approach if he uses that in the debates.
If no one will trust the Tories, why won’t Brown call an election to prove it!!!!
331 - In the centre of that is a devastating paragraph:
“A source close to the former Cabinet ministers, both of whom were allies of Tony Blair, said: “We can’t go on like this”.”
If someone comes out and uses those words on the record, the Conservatives will be comatose with ecstasy.
Wow - they’ve been on the cat-nip this morning.
Gordon was so OTT and so shouty - do hope it keeps it up
331 Blimey.
A source close to the former Cabinet ministers, both of whom were allies of Tony Blair, said: “We can’t go on like this”.
We can’t go on like this? where did he get that from?
Gordo best I have seen him, well ever I think. All lies, spin and bollox, but the kind of people have bought it for 12 years will probably buy that again (like they did going crazy in the Xmas sales).
Ohhh just seen the Guardian breaking news, if true that will take the wind out of his sails, and completely destroy a decent PMQ’s vs Cameron.
Score draw between Cameron and Brown: a good PMQs.
331. Apparently theyll be making a statement after pmqs on his leadership!! http://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/7438524385
333. Brown needs more time to set out his vision….
331 - Will that force the Cabinet to resign?
Find your cojones whoever you are
I have to say I thought Gordon Brown was really good today, getting exactly the right message across, that the Tories aren’t ready for Government.
David Cameron was pretty good too, definitely back on form.
They don’t look very happy on the Gov front bench.
I see Gordon is making up Tory policies again - and yet of course they don’t have any…
This is such pathetic stuff - even someone who doesn’t follow polytix would be wondering what these no-policy policies are which are simulataneously being rebutted
Surely they are simply going to say this is not time for a challenge to Brown - wait until he is destroyed at the election?
If not, then the games have begun.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/01/mcfall-blames-brown-for-lax-regulation.html
They are right.
We just can’t go on like this.
We can’t.
O/T But gave me a chuckle,
Sword swallower trapped in trance for hours after accidentally hypnotising HIMSELF in a mirror
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240983/Sword-swallower-trapped-trance-hours-accidentally-hypnotising-HIMSELF-mirror.html#ixzz0bpniHQM1
349. So Hewitt and Hoon agree with David Cameron
Is this the mantra for the election campaign?
Didn’t think I’d ever say it but good on Anne Winterton.
Andrew Neil and Nick Robinson are going to look pretty stupid if a coup is under way as they were both ridiculing it prior to PMQ’s
Hoon/Hewitt calling for a secret ballot - by text
According to BBC
Oh dear Gordon
Another bad news day
We are the leading power in the world for off shore wind, says Brown. And onshore wind, too, by his performance today.
He is fighting for his life, isn’t he?
secret leadership challenge according to bbc news
And Ann Winterton in one fell swoop shows how the narrow range of (and barking nature of) politicians opposing the idea of man made climate change makes them look untrustworthy.
She’s as Mad as a bag of whatever’s very mad…
Any idea whether the Hoon-Hewitt statement is being covered on a tv channel?
Andrew Neil and Nick Robinson are going to look pretty stupid if a coup is under way as they were both ridiculing it prior to PMQ’s
Maguire has obviously been tipped the wink in advance, his latest posting is timed at 1201pm.
R5 Hewitt/Hoon calling for a secret ballot on Gordon
Interesting article from the Guardian. It is notable that while the circulation is near its most extreme for 60-odd years, the conditions are still a lot milder than, say, 1962-63.
Our coldest winters no longer set records, whereas the warmest summers do.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2010/jan/06/snow-ice-climate-change-arctic-oscillation
BBC Radio Five Live saying Geoff Hon and Patricia Hewitt calling for secret ballot on Brown’s leadership.
Toenails is going to look a prize prat isn’t he! Took the piss out of the blogasphere and tw@tter-ers for false rumours, then…..
Although notice how Bryant and Toenails story about Jowell didn’t tie up, woophhhsss. She went home early, yes she did, no she didn’t….
Labour Party - fight! fight! fight!
Joey Jones covering it now on Sky News.
Gave Brown the victory on PMQs but said that news may overtake the result!
Standard has the letter - says Waugh - can’t find it on their website
Joey Jones on sky has said Geoff Hoon is doing this because, Gordon Brown promised to make him a European Commissioner, and Gordon didn’t.
Effectively they are calling for a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister….
367 - Surely Gordo didn’t stitch him up…no…he is a man of principle, of honesty, of integrity….
Pienar on R5 - you can put some money on the fact that “Labour is in a bit of a state…”
“potentially fatally destabilising for Gordon Brown”
361. But it isn’t winter yet, is it? And this is chillier than most autumns …
10-13 weeks before the campaign was always going to be the final period of time when getting rid of Brown was feasible.
HAHAHHA Chris Bryant is right on the spot
letter begins yours fraternally
Pienar on R5 - “Ed Balls would not give way for a coronation of Johnson”
“That Tessa Jowell rumour: the truth
(…)Incidentally, I received a call late last night from a very senior rebel who said that “Brown will be gone by the end of the week”. I still doubt that for the same reasons I outlined yesterday and, similarly, at the turn of the year, but we shall see.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2010/01/tessa-jowell-reported-call
I love this, says so much about the spineless, tw*t-faced goon:
“Hoon had prepared a resignation letter in which he called for Brown to go at the time of leaving government in June 2009 but declined to publish it, hopeful that he might have gone on to be appointed to the role of EU commissioner.”
It must be serious if the Magwump has been activated to ride to Gordo’s rescue:
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/2010/01/it-wouldnt-be-regicide-itd-be.html?
Part of the letter:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23791716-gordon-brown-in-crisis-over-vote-of-confidence.do
I can confirm the email from Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt - doesn’t say a lot more than reported, just that they think we need a clear expression of support or otherwise for Gordon through a secret ballot, to avoid grumbling and leaking persisting: if “those who want change” lose they would be expected to shut up and get on with the election. The email doesn’t express an opinion on whether they personally support a change, though I doubt if they’d have done it if they didn’t (or that it is an isolated effort - I’d expect further developments).
Geoff Hoon is a former Chief Whip. I think there’ll be quite a few nervous Labour MPs with skeletons in their closets who won’t want to piss him off at this juncture.
Toenails trying to dig himself out of the hole of only 40 mins ago
All we need now is this guy….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWlE1V_lnAQ
It just went Thermonuclear…
The Hoon dog, Guido’s favourite labour politician.
Afternoon all
Listening to the letter read on Sky News, I had a flashback to 1995 and the Rose Garden Putsch. Major said pretty much the same - won his leadership ballot and it didn’t make a scrap of difference.
Labour split and bankrupt (morally and fiscally).
I predict: CON GAINS!
Why does Robinson say 5 or 6 months till GE?
6th May is 4 months away less almost a month for the campaign.
It’s 3 months till the campaign starts.
[370] - There’s not much the weather can do to make things colder [though some clear skies in the next few days will do so for where I am]. It is much more likely that the second half of the winter will be warmer than the first half.
Hilarious how Toenails attacks bloggers for dealing in completely untrue rumours about a Ministerial resignation…20 mins later 180 degree U-Turn.
Hewitt & Hoon, must genuinely believe that all is lost with Brown, the mystery is why didn’t they come out last June - Mandelson at work?
I have to say that the choice of Hewitt and Hoon is hilarious - the chap who’s name is a euphemism for a rude lady part word and Hewitt was the most patronising politician I can recall.
Sweet irony
New thread
Well anything about PMQ’s is meaningless now. Unfortunatly i was unable to see it due to too much snow on my Sky dish.
385 - Because, like all journalists, he’s innumerate.
Poor Gordon Brown. A really good performance at Prime Minister’s Questions today, a cultured and careful on-message speech from Peter Mandelson this morning and all of it will be forgotten in the feeding frenzy that’s about to erupt. And to what purpose?
I think while we’re at it we should have a vote of confidence in the waste of meat that is Nick Robinson.
And then feed him to the Glorious Matriarch Kuenssberg.
386 - I agree. There seems to be this journalistic agenda of saying that ordinary voters are going to get fed up with 5-6 months of campaigning, which is wrong as you point out.
Geoff Hoon is the new John Redwood.
I don’t think this is an important news story. Let’s talk about Dave’s airbrushed picture some more.
I don’t think this is an important news story. Let’s talk about Dave’s airbrushed picture some more.
Labour are in a complete shambles. Their truces never last long before they are all fighting like ferrets in a sack again.
And all this with less than six months before a general election!
I don’t think this is an important news story. Let’s talk about Dave’s airbrushed picture some more.
The letter
Dear Colleague,
As we move towards a General Election it remains the case that the Parliamentary Labour Party is deeply divided over the question of the leadership. Many colleagues have expressed their frustration at the way in which this question is affecting our political performance. We have therefore come to the conclusion that the only way to resolve this issue would be to allow every member to express their view in a secret ballot.
This could be done quickly and with minimum disruption to the work of MPs and the Government. Whatever the outcome the whole of the party could then go forward, knowing that this matter had been sorted out once and for all.
Strong supporters of the Prime Minister should have no difficulty in backing this approach. There is a risk otherwise that the persistent background briefing and grumbling could continue up to and possibly through the election campaign, affecting our ability to concentrate all of our energies on getting our real message across.
Equally those who want change, should they lose such a vote, would be expected by the majority of the PLP to devote all of their efforts to winning the election. The implications of such a vote would be clear – everyone would be bound to support the result.
This is a clear opportunity to finally lay this matter to rest. The continued speculation and uncertainty is allowing our opponents to portray us as dispirited and disunited. It is damaging our ability to set out our strong case to the electorate. It is giving our political opponents an easy target.
In what will inevitably be a difficult and demanding election campaign, we must have a determined and united parliamentary party. It is our job to lead the fight against our political opponents. We can only do that if we resolve these distractions. We hope that you will support this proposal.
Yours fraternally,
Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt
chris bryant looked like he was going to have a breakdown
Regarding PMQs, assuming Cameron is not deliberately pulling his punches to keep Brown in place, Cameron needs to counter Brown’s mantra. What I suggest he does is coordinate the tories front and back bench. Every time Brown starts one of his lists of bullshit, every time he thumps his hands on the dispatch box or waves his hands in the air the tories need to chant “answer the question”, until either Brown sputters or the speaker interrupts. They should just rinse and repeat all the time Brown obfuscates. At the very least it will destroy Browns soundbites and better yet it may actually force him to answer the question.
Good points, I think I will definitely subscribe!
. I’ll go and read some more!