At what point will the animation stop?
January 11th, 2010
Is this how the political map could change?
Philip Palfrey of the University of Sheffield has produced some fascinating graphic material to illustrate how the GB political map for what I think is England could change with different swings. Just look above and watch it change.
A key element here is that the map shows all constituencies as being the same geographical size.
He has other interesting material that I will feature in future posts.
Mike Smithson
PB: Political Website of the Year
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Interesting map
FPT 244. Christina, What is different from any other day , the papers continually print labour press releases.
An interesting way of looking at it, though I see no animation…
fpt 457. tim “Cameron is on Richard Bacons phone in at 2pm talking about parental responsibility.
I’m going to call in and ask him if kids who get involved in drugs should be expelled, helped or given 500 lines of cok, Latin.”
cok, Latin sounds odd. Are you mixing him up with Berlusconi?
Could you also ask him which, purely hypothetically, would be worse for a country: a PM who smoked a joint 25 years ago, or one who is on MAOIs now?
Beautiful map! I love these equal-size-constituency maps, and this is one of the best I’ve seen - much easier than normal to tell which constituency is what.
If we feed the Suns polls into this map, then eat some candy floss how long till we’re sick?
Enough to make every Labour MP on a majority of less the 6,000 gulp…
6: tim…the polls are fine, it’s your understanding of them which isn’t.
If Gordon Brown’s mental state were a music video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p023YD3DDPg
test
A 10% swing, which would be something like Con 42, Lab 25. Now his map suggests that would be Con 361, Lab 152, LD 55. A total for the big 3 of 568. Can I be the first to state this is bollox.
Interesting graphic nevertheless.
“much easier than normal to tell which constituency is what.”
You are joking…
Some of these don’t make sense.
Do we really expect the followng Lib Dem numbers for the following swings?:
10% swing Lab to Cons - 55 Lib Dem seats
15% swing Lab to Cons - 43 Lib Dem seats
Seems unlikely to me…? Would expect much lower Lib Dem numbers if the Tories do that well.
I think that might be just England, rather than UK.
Very interesting effect on the map with blue areas swirling round the red centres as the swing percentage increases. It reminded me of the strange attractors from my mathematics days (the two centres in the North are strongly reminiscent of Lorenz Attractors). Chaos theory meets psephology - makes sense in a way.
P.S. On that map under no circumstances to the Greens take Brighton Pavilion.
He’s also got the 2005 result completely wrong, whether on an actual or notional basis. Lab to low, LD to high. The prof isn’t a LD by any chance?
Is this really a GB map? Looks a bit like England?
8 - You’ve Got your figures wrong.
On the previous thread you wrote
It’s perfectly possible to have a 40,40,42 subset, with the average being 40 overall.
But the Sun is claiming two subsets of 42%, not 40%
12 - Rod - I mean much easier than any equal-are-constituency map I’ve seen before! Still much harder than a straightforward map. But that’s a price I’m willing to pay for the joy of equal-area constituencies.
What is the weird stray Lib Dem seat out in the Atlantic, and the odd little Tory one out in the Bristol Channel?! I hadn’t noticed them before…
14
Phew.
I was wondering where all those fine Scottish distilleries had gone…
20 - odd little Tory one out in the Bristol Channel?!
Thats Jacob Rees Mogg.
14 David Herdson &17 Sunil Prasannan
One of the good things about this site, is that didn’t take someone from Scotland or Wales to point that out!
I’ve no idea if the map is accurate or not, but could somebody tell me how maps like these add to our understanding of…well, anything.
24
For those of us yet to experience the effects of drugs, I think it’s quite handy……
I’m glad I haven’t got a hangover - that map is weirdly alive.
I live in Scotland….in fact I live in Fife…yep HE is my MP so can we have have a map on which we change colour… any colour will do…
2.MalcolmG, I don’t agree with you there. I think that its much harder for both the Libdems and the Tories to make the political news in the Scottish media, both print and Scottish news channels. I also think that the SNP automatically moved up the pecking order the minute they formed a minority government, and that is certainly been reflected in the news. And the SNP got a glorious honeymoon in the media and in the polls. But being in government does mean you get scrutinised closely, and your decisions are picked over even more because they will possible be implemented where others are just aspirations.
The point I made on the previous thread is valid, don’t wait for anyone to come to you with a built in positive news agenda before a GE, or at any other time. The SNP made two major mistakes, they got too complacent and assumed this power malarky was a piece of cake, and they react badly to criticism of any kind. And their main focus of attention is simple not setting the heather on fire, Independence and green energy right now are not foremost in the electorate’s minds. Its the economy, Afghanistan, Arctic weather and a looming GE that is going to dominate the media focus, and Murphy recognises that and has capitalised on this by focusing on the issues that will garner a positive headline for him and Labour.
And the Tories and the Libdems need to up their performance too.
Anyhoos, that is my little bit of Scottish chatter for the day. The UK scene in general is the much bigger topic with a looming GE, and don’t want to litter it with too much parochial patter. We do tend to punch above our weight in that regard on here.
24 fr
Simple. It shows the Tories tying England in knots (whether you think that’s a good or bad thing).
24
I suppose it might help if you had synesthesia
Apparently the Togo team attack was a ‘mistake’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/11/two-arrested-togo-football-attack
Sorry to go off topic so soon, but I have just found this on Coffee House:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5697458/it-is-immaterial-who-fronts-labours-campaign.thtml
Look at the picture of Dr. Brown. Note the tilt of the head: ein reich, ein volk, ein further or what? No wonder the is Brown Bonkers theme has started up again.
Yes it is just England.
Also, as I’m just using straight national swing, there are clearly going to be some anomalies. The main point is that traditional election maps are misleading - Con wins the big rural seats, Lab wins the small city seats, which means even in ‘97 the normal map is mostly blue.
30 - Any “good practical” policies from Daves speech yet?
32: Yes lots. you should listen.
If it’s England only, shouldn’t the LDs be on about 50 seats to start and not 75??
What a horrible map.
The same animation (with a lot less stubborn yellow) with the actual map would be far easier on the eye.
And the two Lib Dem constituencies at the extreme south and North are MILES bigger than they should be even taking this exercise into account.
The map just shows England.
It has been created to address the fact that most election maps are misleading. As con win the large rural seats, and Lab win the small city seats, much of the country is blue even in a 97 landslide.
There will clearly be strange individual seat results as pure Lab-Con national swing has been used, the idea is to visualize the national picture.
The bit out in the Atlantic is the Scilly Isles (patr of the St. Ives seat); the bit in the Bristol channel is presumably Lundy (can’t remeber which seat).
I’d also saty that the Berwick upon Tweed seat looks to be much bigger than others.
24 - the problem with regular as-it-appears-on-the-map maps are that they visually overrepresent the Tory and Lib Dem position as those parties tend to have seats which cover a much larger area. These maps give a much better visual impression of the party’s representation.
32 Just for you - his speech.
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2010/01/David_Cameron_Supporting_parents.aspx
27. Christina, It does help however when the papers just take the press releases straight from labour. Murphy is indeed making the most of using them and as per usual peddling half truths etc
33 - Outline them then.
It was half decent stuff, but policy free, I was surprised to hear Plato describe it as “practical”
Particurlarly as the big Demos report that Dave quoted as the centre piece of his thinking specifically contradicts his “policy” on marriage.
The right is obsessed with family structure and the institution of marriage rather than the actual job of parenting
On the map: I rather like it. Some have raised issues with specifics but it’s quite interesting to look at.
Lundy is part of Torridge and West Devon.
39
9 Morris Dancer Well, with your name, you should have at least liked the May Pole
tim - you little tyke, have you been up to no good?
It certainly reads like you and your oft displayed obsessions…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2010/01/labour-dirty-tricksters-are-suspected-of-circulating-an-anonymous-letter-purporting-to-come-from-a-t.html
Or are you really a Tory backbencher afterall?
I thought the map of England would have Gordon Brown’s face in red and as it changed it would result in a David Cameron face in blue (or Nick clegg face in yellow- who am I kidding)
Is there likely to be any move against Frank Field following on from this morning’s “love-in” with Dave. I assume Frank and IDS are probably good mates since they share very similar ideas on social issues.
It would be priceless if after Frank and the Tories deny he is defecting, Labour forces him out effectively forcing him to cross the floor. Lord Field of Birkinhead, Minister of State at the Department of Social Security just became a step closer this morning, hopefully.
FPT 457 tim what are 500 lines of cok? Is this some gay film?
Fascinating graphical material which illustrates the Sun poll
http://tinyurl.com/yfhpfvu
43, the Maypole was magnificent
Once more morris dancing paves the way to victory and leads the public debate
I would prefer a straight-edge constituency border map, far easier on the eye, even if the country outline would be distorted.
46
Prhaps Mr Smiff can help you with your enquiry?
Also with this map - there seem to be more instances than you would expect of ‘others’ winning seats - and almost never the ones you expect (like, there’s one somewhere in West Yorkshire; one which appears to be Cleethorpes; one somewhere around Watford).
That map appears almost 3D when you look at it for any length of time, makes me feel yuk.
49 How about one along the lines of a Tube map?
38.Malcolm, that happens everywhere, and its an indication of why they have won three GE’s in a row. Where is the counter argument?
Brown is a “narcissistic manic depressive”? Peter Watt hasnt really picked his timing well to try and finish Gordon Brown off, when a week earlier could have done the job.
The Mole on The First Post has some interesting hypotheses as to the timing of Watt’s comments.
http://bit.ly/5gEVsz
OT Did we ever hear about how Clegg did on Mumsnet? I’m still wondering why he came out so publically against one style of parenting guru - it’s not exactly the numero uno issue he has manifesto wise.
32. Its very rare for politicians to come up with ‘good practical’ policies, especially in the kind of atmosphere we have had in the last fifteen years of ideological lite government.
If it was quick and simple, the government would have probably done it already. We can excuse oppositions without experience of government to try to give us simple solutions, but what is staggering about this government, despite its experience, that it knows XYZ will just not achieve its intended aims, it carries on anyway because a focus group liked the idea.
The last truly good, practical and simple policy that i can remember coming from either of the parties, was David Willets idea of state pension reform, outstandingly simple. BoGoF.
51
Good spot. One of those others looks suspiciously like Buckingham, which would dent the Prof’s credibility. There’s another that looks like it could be Hartlepool, the scene of triumph for a monkey and the EDs. In fact that one in the South could be Luton.
Also doesn’t rate the chances of the Greens or Kidderminster Indys.
David Roe #35,
A lot of stubborn Brown would be a bigger worry, heaven knows the lot we need to remove now is baked-on and crusty enough….
Sorry for to those coming back from lunch
55.Plato, he went down a storm apparently and came out on top ahead of Brown then Cameron. Having dipped my toes into have a look, I am not surprised at that result. If you have kids, you just know who the mummy taliban will be and how they vote.
44
That letter is belmingly poorly written.
49. Plato, you do realise a lot of constituency names look as if they could be tube stations and vice versa!
55- Read the 3 first paragraphs
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6982348.ece
44 / 60 - Dawn Butler?
I see that gossips suggest Mrs Robinson has taken three other lovers. Wonder if any were a Graduate. Poor joke I know. Is the weather still poor in UK. Quite nice here….must take the nippers swimming this afternoon he said with a touch of schadenfreud
59 Ah, not surprised - they knit their own nappies from what I’ve read.
Sounds like he was playing to the gallery then with his attack on Gina Ford’s readers.
Disappointed that LauraK also doesn’t know what the word “fulsome” means, when describing D Milly’s speech of approval for Gordon. Or perhaps she does.
62- “first 3″ is better
Retired Gurkhas have lost a High Court test case battle with the Ministry of Defence over pension rights.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8452393.stm
Another Lumley / Woolas classic on its way or maybe Lumley / Battling Bob this time?
51. Quite right - what’s the matter with Cleethorpes?
On a more substantive point:
Judging by the alignment of the inner London constituencies, particularly Cities, Kensington, and Westminster North, this appears to be a map on 2005 boundaries, and so has no meaning for the next election.
59. “wont someone think of the children”
“The claimant count unemployment rate in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is now higher than the Fife average, which in turn, is higher than the Scottish average. The four wards in Fife with the highest rates of unemployment (Smeaton, Valley, Ballingry and Sinclairtown) are all in Gordon Brown’s constituency. And all four have unemployment rates nearly three times the Scottish average.”
45% of Gordon’s constituents are either on the dole or paid from the public purse.
http://order-order.com/2010/01/11/jonah-curses-fife-constituency/
51. I think the ‘Others’ that you assign to West Yorks is actually on the Lancastrian side of the divide, and is probably Oldham East and Saddleworth, which would go Lib Dem with a decent sized Lab to Con swing. It appears to be Yellow at 10% but white at 15% - that may be a glitch in the system as if I’ve got the constituency right, although Con and LD would be extremely tight with a 15% Lab to Con swing, there’s be no other party in it.
44. Scrap no that’s not Tim’s style. More like it’s a Sirus/ Lilly creation produced by Roger!
Cameron on R5 at 3pm for an hour.
44: ‘http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2010/01/labour-dirty-tricksters-are-suspected-of-circulating-an-anonymous-letter-purporting-to-come-from-a-t.html’
Ha! When that first letter came out last June even a blithering idiot could see that it was a Labour Party fake, though at the time that didn’t stop silly old Tim Montgomerie speculating about the possibility of its being authentic. ConservativeHome clearly needs some seasoned New Labour watchers instead of a load of naive and witless boys from vicarages. I’d be happy to help if massively remunerated.
75 It could have been penned by any of the sock-puppets that appear on here.
The language is laughable Labourite-speak masquerading as ‘concerned Tory’.
Somewhat O/T,but just read about poor antifrank on the last thread (my first visit to pb today)-all the very,very best for a speedy recovery!
49. something like this?
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/forecast.gif
72 - quite right - I think it is OE & S. (I should have hedged my bets and said in the Pennines). And I think Denmark is right at 57 that the seat just to the NW of Greater London is Buckingham.
On topic the projections seem extremely harsh on Labour and very generous to the Libdems. Its a shame it doesn’t show what swings for the Libdems are being assumed.
All in all I’m not impressed (it runs too quick, distorts the map and the underlying figures and assumptions seem off). I’ll stick with Electoral Calculus thanks…….
71: Oracle @ 14:20
“45% of Gordon’s constituents are either on the dole or paid from the public purse.”
Is that actually unusual in Scotland?
I am sure I remember reading that more than 40% of the Scottish economy was in the public sector. I am certain that the figure fo direct public employees was sometthing like 25%. So mulitply that up by the providers of services to the big employers (i.e. the state in one form or another) and so forth and the total can’t be much less than 40% of all economic activity. Then add on the people of working age whose sole means of legitimate income is benefit. If anything I would have thought that 42% was below average for the country as a whole.
78. That’s not a bad map at all, Khan, I mean Crosby (oops!).
A reinteration of the views expressed on here re Sunday/Watt/Marr etc
http://philtaylor.org.uk/?p=2901
I understand Cameron once said he was all that stood between the BBC and the wrath of the Tory Party.
Perhaps so.
Just thinking about swings etc - when did we have the last ICM/VIPA comparison?
It feels like ages and ages.
78 You missed off the Space Invaders
79 etc. re Buckingham: The sometimes-white seat that people think is Buckingham is Watford, based on position relative to known Inner London constituencies. It ought to be yellow rather than white.
83. Sally
To be honest I’m not sure Phil Taylor has got it quite in context where he says:
The only substantial part of that interview was Brown’s comment that he would serve a full term. Surely it is not that news worthy that someone who has only been Prime Minister for two years and is intent on standing again will undertake to serve a full term?
After all what is more shocking and worrying? Further evidence that Brown is a dysfunctional nutter or that he intends to go on for another 5 years……
To me the latter is by far the worse revelation…..
I just found out that the compensation one’s receives for the thievery ahem nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley will be announced in June. Funny that.
65 - Cleggs comments on Gina Ford weren’t on the Mumsnet thing they came afterwards, so any “playing to the gallery” charges are nonsense
88. It should have been allowed to go to the wall, and the shareholders get what’s due to them.
Ilford South will only turn blue on a 15% swing.
However, I actually live in Ilford North
Peter Robinson steps down
90. agree with that
88
It will be not quite as high as that due to NRock shareholders..
92. shouldn’t that be Iris Robinson goes down?
87 A valid point. I feel the same.
But I think we know what he’s getting at.
It’s a bit like the fake Tory letter. Sometimes we don’t speak each others language.
92. No surprise.
92 Only for six weeks - or will it be like Tiger’s golfing career…or even that of Phil Jones ?
Has anyone done any analysis of which of the minor parties are likely to win seats if there’s a strong move againts Labour? I’ve made some small forays into backing them on the basis that I think that Labour will certainly be weakish and a strong campaign by any of them in a particular seat could swing things, but I wonder if anyone’s looked more closely? For this reason I’m interested if anyone has seen any prices on Lewisham Deptford, which I think is a possible Green target vs Labour.
Nice…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/jan/11/harsh-words-for-david-miliband
Arlene Foster takes over. Wasn’t she on Strictly Come Dancing ?
Oh dear - Geraldine Smith savages Miliband Snr
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/wendoline-bites-back.html
Love the URL
Hmmm so according to Dave, poor people have problems with alcohol and drugs.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/cameron-says-kids-need-warmth-rather-than-money.html
I suppose he means they have problems affording them, unlike certain rich people.
101 - Arlene Philips.
Betting Post
Paddy Power have a market on when the next NI Assembly elections will be held.
4/6 Before May.
11/4 After May
3/1 May.
Now Robinson is standing down for 6 weeks, and we’re looking at a 6th May General Election.
Surely 3/1 on May is favourite?
Any opinions Yokel etc
I’d still like to see the result of the missing subset from the 10,344 YouGov poll.
It’s not very professional that they haven’t published it.
One of the interesting things in the Watt revelations picked up by the Guardian today, is that Gordon was quite at ease with blowing a huge sum of Labour’s money on the on/off election despite the fact they were strapped for cash and he had receieved clear warnings that they couldn’t afford to spent it without being sure and yet didn’t show any interest and made no effort in fundraising.
Why doesn’t that surprise?
54. Christina, There is no excuse for the bias shown in Scotland, at least elsewhere different papers support different parties. Here they are all for labour and have always been and are now so lazy they do not even change the headings. How can there be any counter argument.
98. It’s my belief he’ll quit before those six weeks are up. In addition SF have been looking for an opportunity to make progress on policing devolution and it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen for some time now; they could get very angsty and walk out.
Odds on NI Assembly election at the same time as GE 2010?
103 - “What matters most to a child’s life chances is not the wealth of their upbringing but the warmth of their parenting.
Dave is being a right dick on this issue.
The research he’s using also points to the irrelevance of marriage to parenting types, yet he’s sticking to that.
64 Rum & coke “I see that gossips suggest Mrs Robinson has taken three other lovers. Wonder if any were a Graduate. Poor joke I know. Is the weather still poor in UK. Quite nice here….must take the nippers swimming this afternoon he said with a touch of schadenfreud”
Try this great version of the S&G song then. From Dave’s Part site and David Osler.
http://www.davidosler.com/2010/01/its_a_little_secret_just_the_r.html
110 As opposed to being a left dick.
81. There is little to no difference between Scotland and England as far as public employees etc goes, another typical fallacy similar to the Scotland is subsidised by England. Just in last few days , Rowntree foundation said that Scotland had more employment and less poverty than England and today BBC say Scotland is poorest part of Britain. It all depends what dodgy numbers you use or who is telling the story.
109. Indeed - Odds on SF topping the poll at said election?
112 - Nearly clever again Sal, keep trying.
107 Well he’s happy blowing 300 million or so pounds of taxpayers money for every day he’s been PM, so the debts he’s put the Labour party into must seem like piddling small change.
4: tim won’t ring in, because people would notice that he sounds posher than Cameron!
81 Sadly the figure is much higher. No less than 50% of the Scottish workforce are on government pay of some sort, i.e. Westminster and Holyrood Departments, State owned industries and enterprises, local authorities, police and fire, water authority etc etc. Hence the reason the Labour vote in Scotland stays stubbornly high. Less than 50% of us pay for the final salary pension schemes of the 50+% in the public sector.
106 According to Anthony, there is no missing subset.
10,000 people were asked the supplementary questions; 7,000 were (additionally) asked the voting intention question.
109 If SF pull the plug on the Assembly, I doubt if there will be an election for some time.
115. Made me laugh.
But then you often do.
More from Keith Law..
“So here’s to you Mrs Robinson, Peter loves you more than you will know” “Heaven holds a place for those that pray except the gays, except the gays”.
“Would you like to buy yourself a little Cafe by the Loch”
“Here’s 50k but if you don’t mind I’ll keep 5″.
Liam Fox just brought up leaked letters ( helicopters ) in HoC.
.. sorry hit enter before I finished last post, I guess that makes it odds on being raised in OMQ.
.. sorry hit enter before I finished last post, I guess that makes it odds on being raised in PMQ.
119 “106 According to Anthony, there is no missing subset.
10,000 people were asked the supplementary questions; 7,000 were (additionally) asked the voting intention question.”
I was asked the questions not voting intention on Thursday.
123 - You were correct the first time.
Fraser Nelson was on Sky News at lunchtime on Brown and the Cabinet’s prospects, he wasn’t kind (YouTube):
Fraser Nelson on Gordon Brown and the Cabinet.
You heard it here first. Darling will be next leader of the Labour party.
122. As a really important story, you can be sure the media will not pick up on it. Perhaps Ms Ashley, after her tirade on the of politics of trivialities will do us all a service and pick up on it.
102 Plato
‘Savages’?
Is that the sort of savaging that granny gives a dried fig when shes not got her false teeth in?
126 - maybe not ( OMQ rather that PMQ’s )
PC playing up or the site, one or tuther.
Cammo setting the world to rights on 5 Live.
How refreshing to hear an anti-Labour viewpoint on the Pinko BBC.
128
Cannibals everywhere!!!
130 Dick Bacon seems to be confusing his role as a BBC radio presenter and a Labour Party spokesman.
132
Are they not one and the same?
133 And doesn’t that speak volumes - Simon Mayo must be spinning on his turntable
@132:
I thought Mr Bacon was a bit of a rightie.
130 Has he taken the call from tim?
Last few mins very, very poor from Bacon.
Does Bacon come from “BBC Old Trot….”
The live video of the “radio” interview is utterly fascinating.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/5live/
Cameron is quite different than on the telly. Looks rather nervous at times.
135 Not that I’ve ever noticed. He’s just spent 10 minutes demanding that Cameron gives precise budget numbers and % reductions FFS.
He’s the most shouty gob and brings zero to the table in term of talent or IQ.
So far we’ve had one caller who seemed to have been reading LabourHome.
Nice first question
132.He is even more hectoring than Victoria Derbyshire, and we end up often knowing less about the political guest and their views as a result!
This kind of confrontational interview really does end up annoying you, and especially when you have an hour long slot with the guest. Sometimes the opposite approach reveals far more about the politician and their views. If you have taken the time to book someone for an hour long slot, why then treat them as if you have five minutes and you are two gladiators trying to beat each other for a quick sound bite or political kill?
134.I miss Simon Mayo.
Is DC developing a cold, or proletarianizing to suit his audience? keeps saying “godda” for “got to”, etc.
There’s a bloke with a fat pink face standing in for the poster boy, what is going on
So now Bacon is now trying to make Winter of Discontent II an issue for the Tories ????
Hilarious - talk about missing the point.
145 tim, have you made that call yet? I’m happy to let you have 20 pence, and then you can phone your other friend as well.
145: Ed Balls is an asset to the Tory election campaign, didn’t you know.
Bacon now calmed down.
The amusing thing is that the more shouty Bacon gets - the more space he gives Cameron to be robust back.
I doubt Cameron would have been so blunt/ordinary bloke speaking if Mayo had been on the other side of the mike.
Sorry Mike, the Map is grotty, leaves a huge number of constituencies off the map and doesn’t make sense.
Whats more, (refering to last thread), the more I see of YouGov’s and Kellner’s work lately the more I despair. I know that you have met and like the guy, but even you must be having a few doubt’s.
@145:
His cheeks are ruddy and swollen because he has just fed on the blood of a Radio 5 intern. He won’t need to feed again until the spring.
Wow only 6 hours of gas left!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/11/uk-gas-reserves-imports-fail
149
He’ll have been getting voices from the control room.
They will have been getting E-mails…
152
@150:
I think Simon Mayo is Britain’s best broadcaster, I really do.
I’ve heard rumours that the reason he was promoted from R5L is because he refused to move to Manchester.
145 The video is brilliant. A real fly on the wall. His mannerisms are different IMO from the airbrushed / TV version. Lots of fist shaking we just don’t get normally. Was that a nose pick?
Just like The Thick of It
9000 to do the, ‘Walk of Shame’
‘I counted ‘em all out and I errr well they never came back’
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23793653-boris-johnson-9000-bankers-will-quit-city-over-supertax.do
Bacon’s rubbish. Shrill and shouty. It shows how good Simon Mayo is as a presenter.
All seems a bit unimportant today. Got to work last night and found out a friend who retired 3 weeks ago has died. Was taken ill on New years eve and died on New years day.
Tragic, 3 weeks of retirement after 40 years of work.
160
Condolences. Often happens though.
153.But didn’t Gordon Brown give us his personal assurance that he would keep the gas supplies running smoothly?
He is in a muddle about marriage. Saying the tax breaks will have zero effect on people’s behaviour. So what are they for?
This speaks volumes
http://twitter.com/paulwaugh/statuses/7632890669
“Cameron on FiveLive with richardbacon. Wonder if he’s being passed memo a la Thick Of It….?”
It’s not only the gas running out. The Gilts market is tightening, and quantitative easing is meant to be stopping any day. Yet revenues are still falling. Now the government has been put on notice the EU will expect us to contribute to the bailing out of Greece to save the Euro.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/01/eu-asks-britain-for-50-billion-to-save.html
Well the DUP wouldn’t want an election now, there shouldn’t be one until 2011, and if SF pulled the plug on the Assembly there will be something of a problem with calling an election too fast before things are sorted out to stop this kind of brinkmanship happenig every single term of the Assembly.
I can’t see an election before May and am certainly having a few pennies on Paddy Power’s after May odds which seem very generous.
148 Balls is only around to make Gordo look good. I really wouldn’t employ the man to sweep up. Once he fulfills his destiny and is dragged off by Anne Robinson to will her trophy case it’ll be a better world.
160
Why is wht I retired as soon as I had the chance!
153
Tripe! When the system has a red alert, loss of input from a major supplier, the calculation is based on Linepack, the UK because it has no need of the large transmission mains found in larger countries, is low in line pack, relative to demand ( linepack gas in pipes) Transco will either interrupt a normal procedure, make up, increase compression, nothing to panic about. I’ve known it down to two hours!
Cameron’s demeanour is perfectly normal for a radio interview. Jonathan is making it up. It is a formidable performance with not a note in front of him.
So Dave says “no one will do that” when asked whether the tax breaks will encourage people to get married.
Err, so whats the point?
156 - I heard that too. I can’t wait until the BBC relocates, I’m hoping a hell of a lot more journalists don’t want to move north so I can apply for a job. I’d love to move back from London.
151. Quite right. The map is very flawed.
Why are the Liberal Democrats on 75 seats in England according to 2005 figures?
159 - Aye, far too many presenters see their role as that of trying to ‘beat’ their interviewee. Their role is to inform the listener, and, especially with the time allowed by an afternoon schedule, an interview can often reveal far more with a more conversational approach. Smion Mayo was very good at this (as was Jimmy Young, some years ago).
Great comment from Worthing cleaner - David has an easier act following Gordon than Richard does following Simon.
Wise words.
Well fended Q about AWSL’s by our David
173 I always Jimmy was a zillion better than Terry - his intvs were stellar.
You can get 2/7 with Paddy Power on PR going before Gerry Adams as party leader.
I know there have been some issues with regard to Mr Adams but this seems like giving away money being that PR seems highly unlikely to see out the month?
174. Lol.
153
What caught my eye in that Guardian article was this:
”UK has enough gas supplies for about 16 days, based on average demand. France’s storage capacity would last a maximum of 91 days and Germany’s 73 days.”
Never has so much money, been spent, for so little reward.
I also can’t find any further information on Philip Palfrey of Sheffield.
I note that we always get complaints along the lines of “a conversation style elicits more information” when the subject is a Conservative, whereas the complaints are more like “soft interviews let them off the hook” when the subject is a Labour person.
166 David R, 105 tim - After May looks best to me.
174 Gordon Brown is bound to flatter his successor.
170. So that people don’t think they’d be better off if they separated?
170 Tim - context is everything, as per usual, your message is out of context. It was inferred that the MTA wouldn’t be THE reason for getting married, and you know it.
One thing I notice is that Cam isn’t using a wad of notes.
Waugh has cheered me up
He agrees re Mayo 
Another rumour from Lobbydog
http://twitter.com/Lobbydog
Further to 181 - Hang on, the market is about May 2011. A vey different matter.
118. easterross I think you are exaggerating a bit there and any comparisons I have seen show that public sector employment is not that much different between Scotland and England % wise.
Richard Bacon quotes to DC the views of David Tennant, the ex-Marxist entertainer….
170- To stop the current inequality with single parents being financially rewarded vs. married couples.
Simples.
179
Those figure do not explain the reason. France and Germany are at the end of very large transmission mains, which are included as storage. The UK because the distance between the supplier i.e. the North Sea in the main is relatively short, there is no requirement for such a system, in case you hadn’t noticed we are an island.
180.I made that point, and again, I stand by it in this type of phone in hour long format.
Is there a new mod policy, or am I just making a horlicks of posting?
Fraser Nelson on Brown and the Cabinet’s chances:
Fraser Nelson on Gordon Brown and the Cabinet.
And can anyone tell me the odds of Darling being next Labour leaser?
187 - Yes, it is rather!
191 coldstone, what will happen if another field such as Ormen Lange is taken offline by it’s operators? How is that shortfall in supply made up?
183. Stickytroll. No. This has only just occurred to me, but if you want couples to stay together marriage is the enemy. Being married makes it massively easier for the non-earner/non-house owner to walk away because s/he has access to the divorce courts.
184 I construed it same way as tim - see 163.
Re the poll. Unless Yougov come clean the only sensible thing to do is to ignore either the mega-poll or the previously-published subsets, else we will be counting most of the sample twice.
I still can’t see how 4,167+2,832 = 10,344 in terms of voting intention…
186.Timing is interesting with the PLP meeting tonight if so, and he would be the fourth former Labour Defence Minister to be standing down at this GE alone. Gordon, quick, mount a 24 hour guard on Ainsworth, don’t let him go too! The headlines would be terrible for the government and for Brown.
193
An interesting franchise concept?
193 Swiss Bob - Best available is 25-1 (Ladbrokes or Bet365). Of course, Darling’s seat is not safe, which is a complication.
Could Hoon force a by-election to really b*gger Brown? Isn’t he standing down at the GE anyway?
193. “And can anyone tell me the odds of Darling being next Labour leaser?”
The best conventional odds are 25/1. They are long because he is going to lose his seat.
195
The first assesment would be, what caused the shortage,how much, how long you thought it would last etc. Once you had some idea, you would ask other suppliers to cover, (you’d be amazed even if they say they are at max, how much they can find) LNG, interruption, asking one power station to switch to distillate is quite a saving.
The system is very robust, if any thing over engineered, compared to how it once was.
I
197. Apparently the other 3,345 were not asked Voting Intention.
201. If Hoon were to croak it (go for a walk a la Cook, Kelly) there would not be a bye election before the GE.
To seanT: Have you ever notice how sex-starved are a lot of women aged over 35 in the LOS? Amazing. Some of them are begging to get nailed, and even ready to pay!
I think Thailand’s got the power to transform a beta-male like me into something like an alpha-dude!
“Johnson’s top aide abandons Labour’s floundering ship”
http://timesonline.typepad.com/crime/2010/01/johnsons-top-aide-abandons-labours-floundering-ship-.html
197 They have come clean.
10,000 were asked the supplementary questions. 7,000 were in addition asked the voting intention question.
197. The poll is confusing. But at least one thing seems clear: the latest subset of voters, asked after the Snowputsch, broke 42, 30, 16, in voting intention.
Hasn’t Kellner explicitly said that?
If so, then that’s all we need to know. Tories are getting a minor boost.
If he hasn’t said that someone should go round to his house and give him a bitchslap until he makes his mind up.
Bacon: ‘Do you know many poor people?’
How crap is his questioning?
193 - Swiss Bob, I got 28/1 the other day. About a year ago you could get 100/1, and I am ruing not taking that. If Alistair Darling wins his seat and wants the job, he’d be a very serious contender.
He’s 100% right about Labour’s attacks about him going to a public school. Only lefties are the slightest bit interested in that sort of stuff.
Credit where credit is due, Cameron excellent on Iraq, right to remove Saddam with or without the WMD argument.
Well done Dave.
202 - Bet you a round of drinks for everyone at a PB party that he doesn’t.
206 Where/what is the LOS and how do I get there?
210 Well I thought the question “Knowing what you know now would you still have voted for the Iraq war?” was a great question. And after a lot of squirming Cam answered “Yes”.
213 tim - Taking the risk of Darling losing his seat into account, what do you reckon the odds on him as leader should be? (I’ll adjust for your known pro-Darling enthusiasm).
105
If you are a gas trader, that’ll cost you £500.00 for consultation fee.
Cammo was excellent with Bacon - is that why tim’s frothy excitement boiled over so quickly.
Medic - pipe problem again.
214. Land of Smiles. Take the M4 to Heathrow.
coldstone do meter readers really get that much? No wonder the Gas Board fell apart.
204 Mike L
have to say that’s the bit that concerns me. Why would you NOT ask the voting intention question to those 3,345 people? It would have made little difference to the cost.
113: malcolmG @ 14:55
“There is little to no difference between Scotland and England as far as public employees etc goes, another typical fallacy similar to the Scotland is subsidised by England. Just in last few days , Rowntree foundation said that Scotland had more employment and less poverty than England and today BBC say Scotland is poorest part of Britain. It all depends what dodgy numbers you use or who is telling the story.”
OK, but two points leap out at me. Firstly, the Rowntree Foundation and the BBC lines, as you have presented them, are not mutually exclusive. Secondly, I draw your attention to:
“118: Easterross @ 14:56
Sadly the figure is much higher. No less than 50% of the Scottish workforce are on government pay of some sort, i.e. Westminster and Holyrood Departments, State owned industries and enterprises, local authorities, police and fire, water authority etc etc. Hence the reason the Labour vote in Scotland stays stubbornly high. Less than 50% of us pay for the final salary pension schemes of the 50+% in the public sector.”
Now what is a poor English pensioner to think?
216 - 8/1
I’ve got lots of odds between 50/1 and 100/1
213 ‘Bet you a round of drinks for everyone at a PB party that he doesn’t.’
tim. you’d be bankrupt if you lost that one, since so many posters would turn up to shake you warmly by the … err … hand.
204/208.
In which case Kellner was wrong when he said the 40:30 was based on a 10000 sample. He meant 6,999?
If so, the best thing is to ignore the mega-poll.
221. The poll was presumably extended, after the putsch, cause te Sun was hoping for a headline grabbing poll result.
They didn’t quite get it.
225 What a load of bollocks - I completed the bit without voting intention - it doesn’t change what I said. If there are 7k people who did say which way they’d vote - that’s plenty already.
richard bacon,what a prat,do you know many poor people,FFS.
who normally reports the populus polls?
223 tim - Interesting that you put the probability so high. I think I’ll go for the 25-1 as a trading bet at least: if he keeps his seat, should be possible to lay off.
(However I shall be extremely cross with the Labour Party if he’s next Leader now. I had a fiver at 200/1 on him being leader at end 2009…)
32 - tim, a person who avoids answering questions stalks another poster demanding answers.
Typical of him really.
*** Mass Special Election (in 8 days) ***
Stars, SSI, Morus, TimT, or whoever else,
Could you give us your current assessment of the actual state of the race?
Here’s mine:
Public Policy Polling has the race as a toss-up with Brown ahead, @ +1.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/toss-up-in-massachusetts.html
It will boil down to turnout : a very low turnout — caused by an atrocious winter weather for instance — would give Brown a chance. But even then, the GOTV machine of the Democratic Party in Massachusetts shall not be underestimated.
On intrade, the odds had been swinging from 9-1 to 3-1 to the actual 8-1…
I think that Martha will probably win this.
Brown’s stellar approval rating — 69% with PPP — might take a hit if the Democrat attacks him somewhat, or simply associate him with a GOP-guy like Sean Hannity, as suggested by PPP’s Tom Jensen.
Is Coakley complacent and lazy enough not to organize a counter-attack? Can she retake the initiative?
And can we rely on PPP’s polls on Special Election after the firm wrote, on November 1 : “Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District.”?
Fact is: this is Massachussetts, the blueest state of Da Nation; so there are much much more Dem voters out there than GOP.
But will they go to the polls in 10 days?
The momentum is actually with Brown and against the Health Care Reform, against which he’s campaigning, virtually making a referendum on it. Will he be able to keep surfing on this roll? Or will Coakley succeed in reversing the wave?
I feel the actual state of the race is probably Coakley between +5…+10. She has more potential voters, but Brown has more actual voters — deadly motivated.
****
The Boston Globe is giving Coakley +15:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points?mode=PF
They are a Massachusetts pollster, with a very solid reputation.
Coakley : 50%
Brown : 35%
Kennedy : 5%
Donno yet : 9%
“554 randomly selected likely voters”, Jan. 2 to 6. MoE : 4.2%
Coakley’s lead grows to 17 points - 53 percent to 36 percent - when undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included in the tally. …
…Coakley is seen as the candidate best able to handle almost every issue voters were asked about, even those that Brown has made centerpieces of his campaign, such as taxes, the economy, and health care. Nearly six in 10 voters also said they are unconcerned that the Massachusetts congressional delegation is composed entirely of Democrats.
Although the Senate race electorate is fairly firm in its choices - 61 percent say they have definitely decided whom they will support, and 15 percent are leaning toward a candidate - special elections can remain volatile until the last minute. Turnout is also highly unpredictable in an election that follows a holiday and could be affected by winter weather.
Brown has built up relatively strong favorability ratings in a short time - 44 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of him, and 25 percent unfavorable. He also maintains strong support from his Republican base, and is seen as trustworthy on the war in Afghanistan.
…Roughly a quarter of those surveyed have not yet made up their minds, and Brown matches Coakley - both were at 47 percent - among the roughly 1 in 4 respondents who said they were “extremely interested’’ in the race.
…Massachusetts has not sent a Republican to the Senate since Edward Brooke’s reelection in 1972. He is also running in a state that has three times more registered Democrats than Republicans, and he is gunning for a seat that was held by the nation’s leading liberal Democrat, Edward M. Kennedy, for 47 years.
…Coakley garners strong support among women, African-Americans, voters 35 and under, and those with a postgraduate education.
Her likability has also proved quite durable, with 61 percent of respondents having a favorable view of her and 26 percent having an unfavorable view. Her net favorability rating has dropped only 6 points since a Globe poll of Massachusetts residents in July, despite a daily onslaught of criticism from Brown.
Health care, the economy, and taxes and spending are the most important issues for voters, who trust Coakley more to handle every one. Even on taxes and spending - which have been central to Brown’s campaign - 42 percent of voters said they trust Coakley, compared with 37 percent for Brown.
Coakley is seen as strongest on health care, the issue that 31 percent of respondents said was the most important. Fifty-one percent said they trusted Coakley to best handle the issue, with only 29 percent saying Brown.
Brown has trumpeted the prospect that he would be the 41st vote to block the health care proposals before Congress, while Coakley has said she would proudly cast the 60th vote to prevent a filibuster and grant final approval for the legislation.
The war in Afghanistan was the best issue for Brown, with 34 percent saying they trust him, compared with 35 percent for Coakley. Brown, a National Guardsman, supports President Obama’s plan to increase troop levels in Afghanistan; Coakley opposes it.
…The announcement Wednesday that key members of Senator Kennedy’s extended family are backing Coakley may have helped consolidate some of her support.
…Turnout is likely to be low, with Smith* projecting no more than 35 percent of the electorate coming to the polls. By comparison, nearly half of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2006 governor’s race.
…A plurality of those surveyed - 43 percent - said they favor the current efforts [to overhaul health care] in the House and Senate, while 36 percent said they oppose them; 18 percent said they did not know enough about the legislation to say.
The issue cuts heavily along party lines. The strongest support comes from Democrats, two-thirds of whom favor the bill, while only 8 percent of the Republicans support it. Among independents, 37 percent support it and 43 percent do not.
Exist questions on the Globe survey:
—> I don’t understand that “Roughly a quarter of those surveyed have not yet made up their minds” when the undecideds amount to only 9%.
What am I missing here?
*Who, or what, is “Smith”?
209. Aaaargh, I can’t resist coming out of ‘retirement’ for one post to point out what everybody seems to be missing - it’s not YouGov that needs to come clean. The Sun have told a complete pack of lies by suggesting that the poll figures are from the full 10,000 sample, whereas in fact they are a shameless re-reporting of the poll from last Friday. Anthony Wells says as much in his blog -
“The voting intention in the Sun today are re-reporting of the figures on Friday”
Forget about Labour’s double accountancy, the Tories and their allies now seem to be relying on double-reporting of opinion polls to generate the illusion of momentum.
Your swingback graph looks much better when you ignore any poll that has Labour ten points or more behind, Rod.
228 I want to ask him the same thing - he shops in W-anchors-R-Us.
225: Oh Rod…you’re not really getting it. If you ignore the ‘mega poll’ then the latest poll was the one post H+H which showed the Tories on 42%.
But if you want to show reverse swingback from the first one, then be my guest.
229 - The Times
6,999 for yougov must be wrong but 541 for Mori is ok ?
When I’m back home in front of a computer, I’m going to put a piece on pb2 about the next Labour leader markets. It’s fascinating and has been curiously poorly analysed. Far too many people are picking tips based on their favourites rather than thinking about who will stand and who has the constituency.
My view on Alistair Darling is that if he survives the election and wants the job, he may well win. That second if is quite a big if though.
Did tim ring in? I really want to confirm my suspicion that he is a very posh ex-public schoolboy with a triple barrelled name!Mind you he would probably mockney his voice like many of his “kind”!
239 - I’ve always thought Alastian Darling’s Scottishness maybe a hinderance to him becoming leader.
233. lol. Nits are so damned hard to get rid of.
As far as any of us know, the latest poll shows 42, 30, 16.
All else is, admittedly, somewhat confusing fluff.
241. Not when 20-25% of Labour MPs will be Scottish or in Scottish seats after the next GE..
233. LOL Rant way James….
236. I agree with you! That’s exactly what I’m saying!
You can’t count the same respondents, presented differently, twice!
241 Crikey - would it really be that many?
The utter tedium that is listening to a Darling speech might be appropriate to a Chancellor, it would be utterly disastrous for a leader in this media age.
I do agree with antifrank, the labour leader market looks interesting, as I think you can discount a few and back the rest for a guaranteed small profit.
Coldstone - Good to hear there’s some robustness in the system, but isn’t it a little complacent to have so little storage?
241. TSE
Is that meant to be ‘Alsatian Darling’.
After all his exertions I imagine he must be dog-tired….
BBC news just how:
China is now the biggest exporter in the world, by bulk and value - overtaking Germany.
China is also the world’s biggest producer of steel, biggest car market in the world, and responsible for largest proportion of world economic growth, etc etc etc.
The superpower cometh.
230 - My assessment of the Next Labour Leader odds would be
4/1 Ed M
4/1 D.M
8/1 Darling
8/1 Johnson
16/1 Harman
20/1 Cruddas
25/1 Bar.
235,what do you think on brown or clegg knowing many poor people,FFS,clegg has a gardener
225
“If so, the best thing is to ignore the mega-poll.”
Just doing exactly what I forecast.. You ignore polls that do not fit your model..
241/248 - I’m blaming the predictive text on my phone.
Alastian Darling, I’m never going to live that down am I?
250. What price Timms ?
242. Nothing confusing about it, Sean - Anthony explains it fully. The 10,000 sample published by YouGov today is an aggregate of the 4000-strong poll from Thursday, the 2800-strong sample from Friday, and a remaining sample which had not yet been published. So to some extent the figures published on the YouGov website today were partly new - the figures published in the Sun today were categorically not.
So for YouGov ‘confusion’ read Sun ‘lies’. I defy anyone to read the Sun reporting of the poll today and explain to me how it does not constitute a deliberate lie.
253 Rufff
233 - Now, how can you blame the Tories for this alleged double counting?
“The superpower cometh.”
G-d help us, given the current regime in China. All those lefties who like to claim that the US is some amoral toatlitarian hegemonic power are about to get their wish of a country that actually fits that description.
253 - I don’t know, it would explain the overlarge vehicle preferences.
250 - No James Purnell on that list?
241: TSE @ 16:12
Mr. Darling’s scottishness wll not be an obstacle to him becoming leader of the Labour Party all the time that Labour have no ambitions of forming an administration.
I cannot see the circumstances under which the English will ever again accept a government dominated by the Scots.
239 - I agree, Antifrank. He doesn’t seem to have alienated anyone (there doesn’t seem to be a ’stop Darling’ movement in the same way that we’re led to believe there is a ’stop Balls’ or a ’stop Miliband’ movement or a ’stop Harriet’ movement), and any disasters at his department are largely (and rightly in my view) blamed on his predecessor in the post. He in neither identified with the Blairites, the left; he might once have been identified as a Brownite but I think he has displayed a surprising degree of independence from Gordon and no-one would now see him as a Brown continuation candidate.
There may be rumblings of discontent about his Scottishness and WLQ-related issues, but these are more likely to come from outside the party than within it.
252.
“Just doing exactly what I forecast.. You ignore polls that do not fit your model..”
No, I ignore polls which are not, in fact, new polls…
255 - They are either lying, or their political team is so inexperienced that they need to pay someone like Mike to help them out while they play with James Murdochs toy.
253. TSE - Well it was a bit of a howler!!!
259 - I’m not really a dog person, more of a cat person.
261
HurstLlama
I think Labour are so stupid it will take 2-3 Leaders to recognise that.
261 It will certainly be a very long time IMO - there are too many issues that are seen as ‘their’ problem - from Scottish bankers to Scottish politicians and the WLQ.
222. The ONS say the figure for the UK as a whole is about 20% of the workforce, Scotland is around 24%, the highest is Northern Ireland at around 30%. Defining what is a public sector job is tricky, if you say the employer has to be a government department or council then you get one figure, but there are many jobs that are still as dependent on public spending where the employer is not the government. Do contractors count? Does outsourcing count? Do private companies that exclusively supply the public sector count?
I’d stick with the ONS definition even though there are many private sector jobs that are entirely dependent on public spending. It’s worth bearing this in mind for the future, the government put a lot of people out of work by cutting spending without going anywhere near “public sector jobs”.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292
260 - 25/1
16/1 Harman - seems generous ?!?
Despite his unpleasantness, I don’t think Balls can be completely ruled out yet. Nor Purnell. I’ve got a feeling though that the next leader won’t be anyone who might be labelled Blairite. Which would rule out DM, Purnell.
261 - Well, we in the Tory party replaced William Hague with Iain Duncan Smith.
Parties in opposition, especially after crushing defeats, don’t always do the rational thing.
Sudden big move in Betfair most seats.
Con out from 1.14 to 1.17.
Has someone got hold of some new information?
241 and 261
The % of Scottish MPs in Labour will increase after the GE. Add in the jocks in English seats and it will be 1 in 4 of the party, possibly 1 in 3. A sizable group.
274. Profit taking ?
But no move in Overall Majority market.
Seems odd.
272 - Especially with rumours that the likes of Ken Livingstone and Unite will be backing Balls in the leadership election
And as bonus: China’s not been ravaged by feminism, obesity, and pessimism. They’re still nationalist, hence immune to the guilt that is now mining the majority of post-colonial nations in the West.
China rocks, and is so much more pleasant, generally, to live in than the other growing power that is India.
255. No, sorry, I’m still confused. Are you saying the Sun is holding back figures, or Yougov is, or… what?
What does this mean: “a remaining sample which had not yet been published. So to some extent the figures published on the YouGov website today were partly new”
???
Genuinely baffled. Is Kellner right to say the latest poll shows 42, 30, 16, or not?
274.Isn’t there a Populus poll due tonight?
249. Also China is highly authoritarian - something you admire too?
FREE MONEY ALERT ON BETFAIR
BACK CONS MOST SEATS @ 1.17
LAY CONS MOST SEATS + 2010 on date + most seats market @ 1.15
250 - 25/1 for Hilary Benn, Tim? That would strike me as good value. But this is an area where your insight is greater than mine.
255 - James, I must have missed your posts criticizing the Sunday Telegraph for massively misrepresenting the Labour recovery in the ICM poll released yesterday, perhaps you could direct me to them
258 — A county that’s producing so many truly stunning-looking women can’t be that bad, I reckon.
250 - interesting list, tim. I’m not expecting Ed Miliband, Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson or, probably, Jon Cruddas to stand. Alistair Darling’s intentions are unknown, but I would incline towards him not standing either - it’s not exactly going to be a fun proposition.
157 - nose pick jon? surely not.
No one in their right mind would do that.
Gordon did, but he doesn’t fit “right mind”
255. so are you saying we are back to square one - a missing 3,335 subset?
either 10,000 were asked a voting intention question (per Kellner) or they were not.
If not, Kellner is sloppy in his answers.
If they were, what did the missing subset say? - since we only have 6,999 respondents in two subsets so far…
282– Sunni, Authority is under-rated in the West…
The etymology of “authority” is the same as “author”, isn’t? — to produce something new in the world…
250 tim etc - From a betting point of view, as at today, if tim is anything like in the right ballpark in his odds (and they seem reasonably plausible to me, maybe a bit short for Darling and a bit long for Harman), then the outstanding bet in the market is 25/1 on Darling.
I do agree with tim that the markets seem to have DM too short relative to EM.
O/T Incidentally I’ve just noticed that Bet365 have markets on individual seats, but curiously they only list (in alphabetical order) Aberconwy to Birminghan Yardley. Assuming it’s not a bug in their web site that limits the size of the list, that might mean they are still assessing the odds for the rest. At a quick glance, their odds seem pretty similiar to Ladbrokes, but worth keeping an eye on.
273 TSE - One might say the same thing about parties in government, given the current situation.
287.antifrank, I quite fancy Jon Cruddas to run again for the Deputy leadership on ticket with one of the leadership hopefuls if he keeps his seat.
280. Sean, here is Anthony’s explanation in full -
“The two YouGov polls published last week were actually subsets of this big 10,000 poll, released because of the Labour leadership ructions. The 4000 or so on Thursday were the earliest respondents to the poll before the Hoon-Hewitt story broke, the 2800 or so on Friday were the latest respondents to the poll, done after the story had broken and YouGov had added some extra questions about the Labour leadership.
The Sun’s poll today uses the same up to date voting intention figures they published on Friday (so those aren’t new), but all their other data is based on the full 10,000 sample.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2408
So nothing complicated about it all - the Sun shamelessly re-reported the partial figures they had first reported last Friday, and pretended they were the full figures from the much larger 10,000 sample that was newly released today, because the Friday figures just happened to be slightly more favourable for the Tories. A lie, plain and simple.
‘or their political team is so inexperienced that they need to pay someone like Mike to help them out’
Another shameful comment from tim.
totally, O/T
Is this the weirdest story anybody has seen for quite some time?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1242243/Murdered-mans-face-stitched-football-warning-rival-drugs-gangs.html
294. But 2,800 is a lot more than 541 that count for some recent MORI polls ?
293 Agreed - his seat looks really marginal though unless he has a big personal vote.
I also like China (though it is more feminist than you imply).
Intriguingly, and frustratingly for moaning western liberals, it is also a happy country. When I was there I got a tremendous sense of exuberance and extroversion, a really upbeat place, bursting with confidence and dynamism.
OK, I thought, maybe this is just because I’m in happy subtropical Yunnan, or its me being seduced by all the pretty Tibetan girls (seduced mentally!).
But then last week I read an Economist survey of public happiness and contentment in various major nations. Virtually all the western nations have grumpy p1ssed off populations, who think the world is going to hell in a handbag - the UK percentage of happy optimistic people was one of the worst - down at 30% or something.
Way way out in front in terms of public happiness was… China. Something like 87% of Chinese approve of the way their country is going, are optimistic about the economic future, etc.
A piquant irony. China is not a democracy as we understand it. But if it was, and they had an election, the communist party would probably be returned to power with an overwhelming majority.
I accept this does not apply to minorities. But even the Tibetans I met seemed notably chipper.
272: ‘Despite his unpleasantness, I don’t think Balls…’
Remember, the loathing of Balls is far more prevalent amongst his opponents in other parties than in Labour itself. Mr Nick Palmer MP, for example, has come on to PB.com on a number of occasions to express his bewilderment at vituperation heaped on Ed by other posters. And Labour, I suggest, would be far more at ease with Ed’s politics than anything dreamt up by the Purnells and D. Milibands of this world. I reckon Ed will seize the throne!
I like 25-1!
£50.00 is going on.
Sorry if anyone is having problems seeing Fraser, it’s too many visitors, no other reason the site isn’t loading.
NB my last post is for M Magnan.
292 James Kelly A lie, plain and simple.
Or a mistake - a much more likely explanation.
276. Ramping?
283. All the free money is gone (about £3
)
Phil M,
Ben Franklin quote for you:
“They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
299 I suppose that a people who are on the rise will generally be happier than a people who are on the slide (even if the living standards of the latter are much higher than the former).
299 - Talking about China in that context
China’s first gay pageant gives glimpse of new acceptance
Contest aims to boost community’s confidence in country where homosexuality was classed as illness until 2001
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/10/china-gay-pageant
284 - Cookie.
You can get 40/1 Benn with Stan James.
Antifrank - You CANNOT rule out Ed M from standing.
Richard - One of the big distortions in the market is Mandelsons price being way too low.
303. “Or a mistake - a much more likely explanation.”
As we say in these parts - aye, right. I suspect the Sun might have been slightly less ‘error-prone’ had the full 10,000-strong sample been the one that was more favourable for the Tories.
309. Ed M would be a big risk for Clegg. If you have a “watermelon” Labour leader why do you need the LDs ?
Martin Kettle writes
Gordon Brown’s pantomime of unity
Tonight the PM will offer Labour MPs a display of ‘collegiate leadership’ that not even his cabinet ministers believe
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/11/gordon-brown-labour-relaunch
289: The missing subset however does not seem to be statistically different from the first subset.
If you have two subsets
Subset A 40,30
Subset B 42,30
Then if the overall subset if 40,30, then it could be anything from 38,30 to 41,30 (assuming equal subset sizes). Either way if you go down the practice of using the last reported set of data which is statistically meaningful, then you can use the last subset which is the 42,30 figure.
The meaning of *Authority*
According to Benveniste , auctor (which also gives us English “author”) is derived from Latin augeó (”to augment”): The auctor is *is qui auget*, the one who augments the act or the juridical situation of another. …
…
…Hannah Arendt considers auctoritas a reference to founding acts as the source of political authority in Ancient Rome, taking foundation to includes… the continuous conservation and increase of principles handed down from “the beginning”, (hence, pietas). According to Arendt, this source of authority was rediscovered in the course of the 18th-century American Revolution, (see “United States of America” under Founding Fathers), as an alternative to an intervening Western tradition of absolutism, claiming absolute authority, as from God, (see Divine Right of Kings), and later from Nature, Reason, History, and even, as in the French Revolution, Revolution itself. Arendt views a crisis of authority as common to both the American and French Revolutions, and the response to that crisis a key factor in the relative success of the former and failure of the latter.
…Philosopher Giorgio Agamben suggests a relationship between the Roman auctoritas, Max Weber’s “charismatic power”, and Carl Schmitt’s theoretical/ideological basis for the Nazi Führertum doctrine. Agamben compares auctoritas to the Führer (who embodies nomos empsuchon or “living law”) in their relationship to the observance of gramma (written law).
http://www.statemaster.com/encyclopedia/Auctoritas
307. I think China is akin to somewhere like America in the 1880s or 1920s, or maybe England in the 1790s or 1830s.
America in 1925 was full of injustice, not least the treatment of black people, and it had major problems with crime and poverty, but the sheer vivacious sense of being the Coming Power, plus the sense of opportunity everywhere, must have made the majority of Americans pretty damn optimistic despite all the problems.
309 tim - Yes, agreed re Mandy. Also I think Purnell too short, and there’s been a slowness to unwind the odds on AJ who I don’t see as a major player post-GE.
I also agree that antifrank is wrong to dismiss Ed M, although of course it’s true that he might not want to stand against DM. Other than that problem, he seems a better candidate and also (I would have thought) better placed in the party.
318: sorry that should be ‘overall set is 40,30′.
Have we heard any rumours about Populus yet?
My guess is it’ll show a bigger Conservative lead than the previous 8% lead from Decembers Populus poll;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/populus
Maybe around 10%?
299. At the invitation of Stalin, George Bernard Shaw visited the Soviet Union in 1931, reporting the Gulag to be a kind of luxury vacation spa, its large population due solely to “the difficulty of inducing [prisoners] to come out… As far as I could make out they could stay as long as they liked.”
On the last day of his pilgrimage, he said, “Tomorrow I leave this land of hope and return to our Western countries of despair.”
306 - I notice Scott P has now popped up in your comments three times to say Darling will lose his seat.
He’s expecting an 8% swing to the Tories in Edinburgh SW.
Putting aside the MOE stuff in the Sun’s poll - the responses are really interesting - apart from a couple of bits from ASOD there’s been hardly any comment on here.
*off to have a dig*
Tim, I think Ed Miliband would be a very good candidate if he stood. But the family aspects of standing against his brother look like a big stumbling block. This is not like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, this is far more personal. If he can overcome that, he would be my favourite. You will note that I have bet on Alistair Darling and may yet on Jon Cruddas, so the mere fact that I think someone may well not stand doesn’t translate into my being cool on their odds.
@308:
That “classed as an illness” thing is misleading and unfair. Closer to the truth is that Mao classified it as “unhelpful to the prevailing order”. But Mao never persecuted or prosecuted gays. The typical Confucian attitude to homsexuality is that exclusive homosexuality is wrong only where it interferes with the family’s continutiy.
China is one of the few countries where homosexuality has never been a crime.
268 Plato, perhaps you are forgetting: David Cameron (as much Scottish as English), Liam Fox (East Kilbride), Michael Gove (Edinburgh), David Mundell (Dumfries) and Lord Strathclyde (Glasgow) so that is 4/5 already in the next cabinet.
314,maybe the new labour party after the GE wants to go back to old labour,so people like john mcdonnell’s name might come into the leadership race.
318. “Either way if you go down the practice of using the last reported set of data which is statistically meaningful, then you can use the last subset which is the 42,30 figure.”
Slackbladder, no-one is disputing (certainly I’m not) that the 42-30 figures are the most up-to-date. The point I’m making is that the Sun lied through their teeth by implying that these figures were new and were based on the full 10,000-sample.
And the double-reporting scam worked too - look at the previous post on this very website with ‘no change’ for each party’s percentage standing earnestly pencilled in!
279 Does that mean fewer seats or more seats for the Tories on the spreads?
329. I was trying to think of any Scottish Labour MPs who represent English seats - are there any ?
323 GIN
Nothing on Twatter or Google I could find…
333 - Liam Fox and Michael Gove for two
324. The comparison between Stalin’s Russia and today’s China is so utterly preposterous I presume you are merely being provocative. I am reading Anne Applebaum’s Gulag right now.
Shanghai it ain’t.
For a start the foreign tourist can now wander at will through most of China, even getting into Tibet isn’t exactly tough. You can stop and talk with Chinese people about almost anything (if you can understand them). And they are happy to talk.
I had an open conversation with a (cheerful) Tibetan kid who laughingly derided Mao in pretty blatant and obscene terms. He had no idea if I was really just a western writer.
China’s behaviour in Tibet is disgraceful. But the fact the Chinese don’t match our understanding of democracy does not mean the Chinese people are downtrodden. They simply aren’t, in any practical sense.
And if you read the blood-soaked history of China (as I have been doing) it is arguable that today’s Chinese government is the most successful and “benevolent” in the country’s extremely long existence.
333. Ian McCartney, loads of others, the late member for Norwich N…
328 Are you sure? I was pretty sure that Mao did send homosexuals to concentration camps, which was standard for communist regimes. If he didn’t, they must be just about the only group he didn’t persecute.
320 One of China’s future problems is a rapidly ageing population.
333 - Pat McFadden.
Ian McCartney
335. Fox may not be a Cameroonie but “Labour” is harsh
328 - Thanks for that info Mr Coxall
333. Fiona MacTaggart - Slough born Glasgow…..
335 - We’ll have Gove, you can keep the Fantasist Mr Fox.
In an answer to me, Anthony Wells says “My understanding is that all 10,000 people were asked the voting intention question.”
Confusion still reigns, therefore!
333 - up until recently there was Tony Blair *dos tin hemlet and awaits protests from SNP-ers*
323. Re Populus - I don’t want to start a rumour and wish to make clear that I have no information at all.
However it occurred to me that the sudden move on Betfair this afternoon COULD suggest someone got word of the Populus numbers and acted accordingly. IF that were the case it would suggest it is good for Labour.
333 around 25 Scots sit as Labour MPs in england.
335/340 - I apologise to Michael Gove and Liam Fox for calling them Labourshites
I think I’ll stick to commenting about Alsatian Darling
336. Sean K.,
Could you really live in a one-party state?
336 That last paragraph is probably correct.
I was reading that during the period in which Genghis Khan conquered Northern China, the population fell from 30m to 9m.
331: Some of the error can be put to YouGov though, as they were doing the fieldwork on tuesday, then H+H broke, and they extended the data collection to take into account this, along with the ‘mega poll’.
Maybe they should have ditched the previous fieldwork, as it was clearly going to be out of date with events, however that then led to the creation of multiple data sets.
Both Gordon and Bridget Prentice are Scottish, representing Pendle and Lewisham East.
329 Easterross - but Gove, Cameron and Lord Strathclyde don’t come across as Scots as they don’t have a Scots accent of any kind [if you hadn't made the point, I wouldn't have named them] - same as arguing that Blair was a Scot - few would think so.
329 - mind you, I’m not having it that David Cameron’s ‘as much Scottish as English” - he was born in England and grew up in England. He’s English.
I’ve got a Scottish mother, but it doesn’t make me Scottish. I was born in England and grew up in England: I’m English.
320 One of China’s future problems is a rapidly ageing population.
Actually , that’ s why I reckon it won’t be a superpower. India, much younger, is a better bet.
347. So say 20 after the GE plus 40 from Scotland = 60 Scots out of 200 Labour MPs.
Darling could be in with a shout..
325. “He’s expecting an 8% swing to the Tories in Edinburgh SW.”
As shown by the Palmeresque canvass returns
356. Or Brown hanging on could be worth a bet
344. “Confusion still reigns, therefore!”
Not really, Oldnat, it’s pretty clear that the previously unpublished ‘middle’ part of the sample were interviewed on Wednesday, after news of the coup broke, but before YouGov had the chance to add the additional questions on the leadership.
It’s a bit of a waste of a mega-10,000 poll to have all this confusion. Now Anthony Wells says all 10,000 were asked the voting intention.
353. Of course Gove has a Scots accent
353 - Gove doesn’t have a Scottish accent?
We’re talking about the MP Michael Gove, right?
329 Easterross
Are you sure Mundell will be in the Cabinet?
I think the issue is not whether there will be “Scots” in many future Cabinets - but whether there will be any MP (originating in any part of the UK) representing Scottish seats (with the possible exception of the SoS).
361 Not to my ears - I listened to him making a HoC statement before I mentioned him.
He simply sounded RP Surrey to my ears.
Guido has a funny story on LibDem’s arithmetic..
http://order-order.com/2010/01/11/libdem-figures/
334. Thanks very much.
Liam Fox in Woodspring. For some reason I thought Frank Doran was English but when I heard him being interviewed he sounded Scottish.
There is a rising field in economics that calls itself “Happiness Economics”. They try to translate things like “I love my wife; and I’m glad I can shag her every night or so” into: “how much does your love and healthy sex-life worth in terms of cold hard cash?”.
*
One factor that might favor the happiness of a people is a deepl -seated respect for their most basic social institutions. If the people “authorize” them — if a government or a monarch have “authority” — such as the actual King of Thailand, for instance — a people might be more trustful, and smoothly comforted by the feeling of being taken care of. Kinda of like having a father one truly respects and loves.
The Founding Fathers and the Constitution are probably the core of American political system’s authority. As long as it is alive, there will be hope for renewal, and political peace in the land. This authority will always assure that the internal political feuds are transcended — may God save them; may the various states be united under his watch. Kinda like a preemptive remedy to any potential civil war.
Nietzsche famously wrote in the Gaya Scienza that the Death of God in the West was the biggest tragedy ever, coze this metaphysical vacuum is produced gives way to a widespread nihilism (everything is okay), cynicism vis à vis temporal authority (on which ground can they rule us?), and thus open the door to the most abject political opportunism and social engineering projects such as socialism.
I wonder what is the source of authority of the actual government in China.
365 Oh dear - but what’s a decimal or so between friends?
338. The ageing thing is an exaggerated problem, and partly a result of western wishful thinking, I’d suggest.
Yes China is ageing like almost every country outside the real 3rd world, but its population is set to grow for another few decades yet. Moreover it feels extremely young - compared to any western country.
And the one child policy is, I understand, increasingly honoured in the breach more than the ob (it was never observed that strictly in rural China anyhow). If you have a bit of money you can buy the right to more than one kid: I saw lots of young middle class families in Yunnan with 2 or 3 children.
The one child policy was a response to Chinese insecurity, they feared famine and then revolution. As the economy booms they are losing this fear: they will want a growing population again to match their economic deminance.
And there is still plenty of space in western, southwestern China for the “black haired commoners” to live.
And eventually China will unite with powerful Taiwan. And then there’s the enormous Chinese diaspora…
I know I have harped on this theme before, but it is true. We better get used to it: China will equal the USA within 20-30 years and everything will feel very different. And then China might become top dog.
A united Europe (yuk, I know) is the only viable geopolitical response by smaller powers like the UK, France and Germany, unless we want to be crushed individually.
349 Sunil Prasannan
“Could you really live in a one-party state?”
I’ve lived in Ayrshire for almost 40 years!
My favourite for next labour leader is Balls.
That is Mrs Balls.
360. “It’s a bit of a waste of a mega-10,000 poll to have all this confusion. Now Anthony Wells says all 10,000 were asked the voting intention.”
Indeed they were, Andy. Voting intention figures from the full 10,000 sample - Conservatives 40%, Labour 30%.
The Sun figures of Tory 42%, Labour 30% are a re-reporting of the final 2,800 segment of the sample, which they first published on Friday. The Sun deliberately created this ‘confusion’ by pretending these figures are new, and drawn from the full 10,000 sample.
333/339. Jim Fitzpatrick, Jim Cunningham, Doug Henderson, Fiona Mactaggart, Stephen McCabe, Pat McFadden, George Mudie, Ian Stewart…
372
Mrs Balls?
Quite possible. Labour will take several attempts to find an electable leader.. and about 15 years - like the Tories.
227. Hurst, still very conflicting data and it is hard to be sure what the real picture is regards comparisons with Scotland and England re public sector and overall spending. With all the different numbers spread about you can choose any position that suits your location or political leaning.
One thing for certain, it is not Shangri-La in Scotland with public money flowing from every tap, the statistics show the real story and I am sure there is just as much waste and poverty in England.
370 Alternatively, China will discover the “benefits” of social democracy, political correctness, and big government, and its growth will peter out.
373 - I’ve just discovered your blog, you are obsessed with some people aren’t you?
373 I don’t think very much turns on it.
353 Plato most of my friends and neighbours have “cut glass” English public school accents but tell any of them they are English and they are more than likely to take a claymore off the wall and ram it through you. Tony Blair is Scottish though I hate to admit it.
354 so the child of white English parents born in India or Burma etc is Indian, Burmese etc. Tell that to Joanna Lumley. Almost everything about David Cameron except his place of birth is Scottish through and through.
375. Mrs Balls should be 100/1.
356 say 30 from Scotland not 40
378. Thanks for the free advert, TSE, I was too modest to go down that road myself.
266. The overwhelming Scottish Government you mention , is that the 3 or 4 Scottish people in the cabinet, some majority.
With a General Election imminent and at a time when the Labour Party seems to be nearing bankruptcy, I thought that the following article might be of some interest to the PB.C community. It certainly raises some intriguing questions….
http://tinyurl.com/yfb54gz
381 - Isn’t Mrs Balls the stop Ed Balls candidate?
380 Easterross
It’s not up to anybody else to tell others “what they are”. We all have multiple identities, but one of them is the primary identity. Cameron is what Cameron thinks he is.
“When I was there I got a tremendous sense of exuberance and extroversion, a really upbeat place, bursting with confidence and dynamism.”
Same same here.
I my clumsy english : “wow. the women are so beautiful. And well-dressed. And friendly. And out-going.
Wow. So many young people. And the general feeling that the future belongs to them.”
And then, this very sad feeling I have everytime I’m going to the customs at the Montreal airport. So many old people. Gosh, even the young women are so frakking fat. Holy shit. So frakking fat. And badly dressed. ”
I have became totally addicted to the East. I’d rather die than living in the West again for more than a coupla months in a row. I’d be sex-starved again, pessimistic again, and incredibly bored of drinking with pals without the slightest hope of eventually going to get laid by a beautiful and slim and high-heeled chick.
379. “I don’t think very much turns on it.”
I’d suggest that one very important thing that turns on it is that, in future, Sun reporting of all new polls should be regarded as suspect until we see the actual figures from the polling firm concerned.
273. Plato, Only from sad English people who always need to blame someone else rather than stand up and be counted and admit they made a complete mess of things. It all started and finished in London despite the whinging from England.
386 - Maybe Ed will be leader and Yvette his Deputy or vice versa?
Sean did you take the train to Lassha or did you fly?
391 - Dream scenario, for me.
373, hello, Mr. Kelly. Though I disagree with your politics, I’m glad both you and Christina came back.
391, nepotastic!
SeanT is right that in 20 years we will have a new global order, with the US and China top dogs. But, we will also have India not that far behind. As to the EU bit, we can join together, carry on as we are, go our separate ways and it won’t make any difference. For Europe, the terminal slide beckons and there’s not a lot we can do about it.
(Except maybe double our birth rate, ditch some of the expensive policies and start wars whilst we still have something of a technological advantage)
I’d suggest this wouldn’t be to everyone’s taste, so irrelevance it is.
*** Betting Post ***
Paddy Power have put up some more markets on NI:
First Minister on March 1st?
Applies to the position of first minister on March 1st 2010 and the person carrying out the duties of office on that day.
Peter Robinson 5/4
No First Minister 6/4
Arlene Foster 4/1
Nigel Dodds 8/1
Martin McGuinness 20/1
There’s also a market on whether Arlene Foster will be permanent FM in 2010. Yes 4/1, No 1/7
377. lol. Yes, that is our only hope. We need Nu Labour to take over the Chinese government, thus condemning the country to decades of stagnation.
The Chinese population is still growing speedily:
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/862433/the_population_in_china_is_growing.html
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=ch&v=25
It’s birthrate is similar in vigour to America’s, but of course from a much much larger base. And the one child policy is now being relaxed…
On some projections the Chinese population will increase by the entire population of America (i.e. around 300million) in the next two decades. THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE USA.
Run for the hills, I say.
Michael Gove was indeed born in Scotland:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Gove
Yet our very own Sunil Prasannan was born in India, yet needs a Visa to visit there!
390 malcolmG
Be fair. I remember when that was normal in Scotland, though it’s much less common now. If you have a democratic deficit, you whine about it - or do something to solve it. When England is once again responsible for its own affairs, they’ll feel more confident, and the whinng will stop.
The next con-lib love affair?? Surely, surely brown isnt stupid enough to fall on the wrong side of the argument twice??
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/6967882/Gurkhas-lose-equal-pensions-battle.html
394 - Indeed but then it could be a Miliband doubleact as well…
I have recently done some investigation into recent elections. I am amazed at the very low turnout in the 2005 election. This current piece looks at swing but what consideration is given to voter turnout and what effect does it have if it is greater or less than the 61% at the last election which was extremely low?
New Angus Reid poll coming up
I do love the Scots. Thanks to them, Labour is doing better there, where there are fewer essential marginals for the Tories to win.
This will more than likely lead to a Tory landslide in England, and a comfortable working majority for David Cameron.
Thank you Scotland
380. Easteross: Almost everything about Cameron … is Scottish through and through
Apart from his not very Scottish, German-Jewish great grandfather, Emile Levita.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6677414.ece
387. I agree Oldnat. Cameron doesn’t identify himself as Scottish (or Jewish for that matter!)
402 - What time Mike?
I may have to delay my departure from work.
363. Oldnat, a year or two of the Tories and hopefully we will not need to worry about any MP’s in London. The sooner the better.
406 malcolmG
The only flaw with independence is that when England ethnically cleanses Parliament, we’ll get the b*ggers back!
115. TC thanks for that………who says Ulstermen have no sense of humour
SeanT 370 To be top dog, a power has to be the top innovator, not just an efficient factory. China may get there, but it is not there yet.
In the big strategic picture, a united Europe is the only way if European statees want to have a say in the future world order. However, the current model is hopeless:
1. it is undemocratic in that most practical policy is made by directive by unelected and unaccountable civil servants
2. the democratic representation through the Council of Ministers is in the form of competing national interests, rather than the common good of the United States of Europe
3. the European Parliament really has no meaningful power and, because of that, the general quality of those seeking election to it is low (some exceptions).
As I see it, the model has to be changed in any case to avoid it either falling apart under its own weight or, worse still, civil unrest. Given the bureaucratic and institutional interests and inertia, I am not sure this will happen smoothly. Creating a crisis which forces Europe to reexamine its structure is the greatest service the Tories could perform as ‘Europeans’, IMO.
395. I disagree. A truly united and DEMOCRATIC European Union would have a population of 500m and enormous intellectual, scientific, cultural, demographic and entrepreneurial wealth. And the economies of scale!
We can decline apart, or we can at least have a go at staying relevant, as a team. And this European Union will speak English at the top, so it is to our - British - advantage.
In the end we will have to unite anyway as we will be outcompeted for dwindling resources by China India and America. Some kind of Federal EU is therefore inevitable. We need to fight to make it more democratic.
Of course I’d prefer it if we still had the British Empire, but hey ho.
376: malcolmG @ 17:10
It certainly isn’t easy. I have a vivid memory of reading about the proportion of the “regional” economies that were down to the state, this I think was in 2007. From memory the highest in England was the North East with something like 43%. Then came Scotland with 47%. The big loser was Nortern Ireland with over 50%. For camparison purposes only, the South East of England was about 20%.
However, I am damned if I can find the original set of stats and my numbers may be out. So annoying.
407. Oldnat, maybe its not such a good idea after all then.
Angus Reid poll…must have Angus Reid poll…
385 - A bit naughty of Labour.
so nothing new then.
410, There’s always the Commonwealth
AR poll in two minutes.
410 — I would bet it won’t happen — the rise of Islamism and the demographic decline make it a very improbable scenario IMO. But I admire the boldness of the idea.
380 - Well it depends on their upbringing. I’d say the examples you cite are a grey area because of the extent to which the expat community in the colonial era subcontinent was separate. But another example - would you say my friend Anil - who was born in Manchester and who went to school with me but whose parents moved here from Pakistan before his birth - was English or Pakistani? I’d say he was English - and so would he. Though clearly when describing ethnicity rather than nationality he’s more likely to describe himself as Pakistani.
To reduce it to terms of excitable 1930s nationalists, I’d say soil is more important than blood.
385 - More of our tax money doing the loop-d-loop then to fund the GE campaign. The media are on every tiny funding of the Tories and activities of any donors, but Labour have their cosy union modernisation fund (and now this) and hardly more than a mutter.
New AR now out
“SeanT To be top dog, a power has to be the top innovator, not just an efficient factory. China may get there, but it is not there yet. TimT”
Yes, those East Asians - like the Japanese, Taiwanese, Koreans - are incapable of innovation. I mean, look at Japan. A wasteland of scientific backwardness.
The Chinese will get there. And they weren’t exactly unknown as inventors in the past, of course. Paper? Gunpowder? Printing? The compass?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions
411. Hurst , that is the issue, however hard to believe that there can be a huge difference given that most of the services provided are similar , so apart from maybe geography reasons they should be relatively comparable unless there are efficiences due to size. Given the population difference and geography i would expect Scotland to be a bit higher. Scotland was 22.6% in 2008 and UK was 20.5% in 2005. Given the public service was hiring hand over fist since 2005 it looks pretty similar overall.
410 I have no faith in the EU to offer us anything other than social democracy, big government, and political correctness, however it’s structured.
So, I’d rather we just took our chances.
Sorry, but it is fairly clear that all the constituencies are not the same area size on this map. You can fit some constituencies inside others with plenty area to spare. Can you confirm what the sizes are based on?
they’re not equal sized and they whirl round like eddies on a weather map…
Some of the seats are slightly bigger than they should be - this is because to keep the shapes and continuity correct some must be overly skewed. This method (Gastor + Newman) however is regarded as the most effective.
Secondly, I’m not a Prof! Just a geography Master’s student…
Thirdly, it’s not designed to give accurate predictions for individual seats (eg it assumes straight national swing) but rather to visualise the national picture may look like.
Finally, yes it is just England.