Labour closes the tracker gap to just 7 points
February 19th, 2010
CON 39% (39)
LAB 32% (30)
LD 18%(18)
Here’s a poll to test the Andy Cooke analysis?
The second YouGov daily tracker for the Sun is out and although the increase in the Labour share by 2 is well within the margin of error it does take us into what is clear hung parliament territory with the crude uniform national swing (UNS) seat calculators that simply apply a mathematical calculation in each seat to the 2005 result.
This is going to reinforce the narrative that the election is less of the forgone conclusion that it appeared and if Labour gets a couple of points closer we could be at the point where the UNS maths suggest that Labour would win most seats.
With Andy Cooke the equation on the latest poll is much more complex and takes into account the special characteristics of the marginals which swung much more to Labour in 1997 and have “retained” a large part of that - something that we have seen in all the limited polling of the marginals that has taken place.
The Cooke algorithm rates the hung parliament probability on a seven point margin at just 1.6%.
Whatever this is seriously good news for Brown Central particularly as it suggests that Labour is heading for a GB vote share that is only four points off the 36.2% that was achieved in 2005.
So Labour, on this poll, has lost just one in nine of the voters who supported what was then Tony Blair’s party on May 5th 2005.
The best Labour most seats bet is the 6.6/1 on Betfair. Ladbrokes, William Hill, Victor Chandler, and Bet365 have it as a 6/1 shot.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
TYPEFACE MELTDOWN!
First
“Will Gordon Brown call an April election? Prime Minister signals change of plan as fear grows of a double dip recession
The Prime Minister will tomorrow indicate his intention to hold an early election by spelling out Labour’s main election pledges -one of which is to ‘ensure the recovery’ of the economy.
Gathering fears of a ‘double dip’ recession could force him to call an election before April 23.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1252147/Will-Gordon-Brown-April-election-Prime-Minister-signals-change-plan-fear-grows-double-dip-recession.html
re 2. But only with IE. The sensible browsers like Firefox and Chrome are fine.
Anyway it is fixed.
For what it’s worth I think this is a definite hung parliament poll, but the long-term direction of travel (coupled with two-and-a-half months still to go) may well render debate over ‘algorithms’ academic.
The Tories must be seriously worried.
Er, what happened to the 39/32/18??????????????
Anyhow, only 7 hours to HUNG PARLIAMENT HEAVEN.
Don’t forget to tune-in to the 1974 show (BBC Parliament, 9am)
Well it says 39/32/18 in today’s Sun.
I’m only in the office with the paper in my desk so I might be wrong.
And it’s NOT a tracker. It’s a separate poll.
I thought we’d come to that agreement?
Sample size given in the paper as 1,558.
That 1910 election map is interesting. A shame it misses off 100 seats as that would be interesting to see how closely the end of the green matches the 1922 boundary.
re 5. James - you are right - the Tories should be worried though I’ve said here before that I think that current YouGov weightings are over-favourable to Labour as,perhaps, Angus Reid’s under-favourable.
There should be the Guardian ICM poll out on Monday night which does what YouGov doesn’t - weight by likelihood to vote.
re 7. Corrected.
“if Labour gets a couple of points closer we could be at the point where the UNS maths suggest that Labour would win most seats.”
I never thought I’d live to see the day, Mike, but…
Even in our sleep, pain which cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, until, in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom through the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
I hope you can now see why VIPA and its 200-seat Tory majority had to be strangled at birth? No hard feelings, eh?…
re 12. Rod - I’ve just placed a trading bet at 7/1 with Betfair on Labour getting most seats.
9 David Roe
I can’t find a 1910 political map, but this is the 1918 one
http://wapedia.mobi/en/File:1918irishelection.jpg
but you will know that it was fought on a much wider franchise, and with revised parliamentary boundaries.
9. The dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone, etc did not look much different 100 years ago. Dublin South returned a Unionist by 66 votes, else the South all Nationalist. Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal all Nationalists.
Belfast (4 seats) 3 UU, 1 Nat
(London)Derry City UU by 57 votes
Newry, Nat by 537
Antrim (4 seats) 4 UU
Armagh (3 seats) 3 UU, 1 Nat
Down (4 seats) 3 UU, 1 Nat
Fermanagh (2 seats) 1 UU, 1 Nat
Londonderry (2 seats) 2 UU
Tyrone (4 seats) 2 UU, 1 Nat, 1 Liberal
13. You can get 10-1 on betfair for Lab 275-299, which amounts to nearly the same thing…
Nytol
Not sure if it’s just my computer but the headline still says Lab 31 (31) whereas it should say Lab 32 (30).
15. Sorry
“Armagh (3 seats) 3 UU, 1 Nat” should read
“Armagh (3 seats) 2 UU, 1 Nat”
15/19. And of course…
Dublin University (2 seats) 2 UU
39 32 19
Hello
Hello
Looks like the grass is starting to grow.
Who’d have thunk it ?
But to be honest this was inevitable. Especially when you saw those bookie odds of 1/12 on Con most seats. Completely ridiculous those odd were. Totally unsustainable.
I expect to see those odds, right across the board move dramatically in the next few days.
14 - Aye, I found that one myself.
The voting numbers in the 1910 election show how small the electorate was compared to the population.
20 - Good old Trinity.
23. Yes, they burned the Tricolour on VE Day 1945, while UCD, led by Charlie Haughey, burned the Union Jack.
Meanwhile, Dev signed the condolence book for Hitler…
Isn’t Irish history fascinating?
25. Yes, but it’s a pity neither the British or the Irish can learn its lessons…
26 - I actually think both the British AND the Irish have done so in the main.
It’s just six small counties and the good football supporters of Glasgow that remain locked in the 17th century.
TTFN. Joy in store tomorrow. A full day of trying to write constituency profiles on Scotland without using the words safe seat.
27.
Ever been to Liverpool?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rUed7pmams&feature=related
A hundred years ago my Irish cousins used to get the boat over to Liverpool because the “scuffles” were even better than Belfast’s, apparently…
Correct Mr Roe.
Rod Crosby = flawed genius ?
PODWAS
Off-topic:
God, who’d a thunk that. Darling has support from certain economists and - lo-and-benold - one is Richard Layard.
Richard Layard is a Keynsian retard. Amongst his claims-to-fame is he was an economic-advisor to Russia in the ‘Nineties FFS.
So if I was to choose between the advice of Charles Goodhart or Layard it’s no contest; Sir Richard wins every time. I’d rather be banished to Mrs Dale’s place then sit through another one of Dickie’s ‘lectures’ (they are really that bad).
32, What bugs me is at a time when the government should really be turning all their efforts on the economy they spent time running around signing up economists to rebut the letter in the Times. Firefighting tactics not strategy. Doh.
A seriously bad poll for the Tories, which seems certain to shake up the betting markets.
The words Dave, Out, Finger and Pull spring to mind.
34-No, not a good poll. But yesterday AR had a good poll for them. Are we goign to keep getting mixed messages like this for the next two and a bit months?
I was starting to wonder whether the Dave Malfunction had corrected itself, then he chose to go to war with Joan Bakewell and Help the Aged.
Only one winner there.
Odds on Camerons personal rating being negative in the next Mori?
Tim’s back, I see…
(Testing)
35 Yes probably - it’s a fight to the death for the pollsters as well as for the politicians!
Just imagine the kudos for johnny-come-lately Angus Reid were it to “win”. Tim and others think this is impossible and whilst AR’s “others” share of the vote stays anywhere near the present figure 16% they are probably right - this really does need to addressed and soon, but otherwise the consistency of their polling is impressive.
Both Angus read and the latest Yougove tracker, like the majority of recent polls, have
1) Conservatives at or within MoE of 40%
2) Lib/Dems at or within MoE of 18%
3) Labour at or within MoE of 29%.
If that’s where the level of support really is, then normal statistical variance would suggest that we will get some polls suggesting a Conservative majority and some suggesting a hung parliament, and the answer to Peter2’s question at 35,
“are we going to keep getting mixed messages like this for the next two and a bit months?”
is yes.
Nobody can afford to be complacent about this election - I think there is a real possibility of any result in the range from a hung parliament to a healthy Conservative majority - though even if Yougov is dead on I can’t see it being too likely that Labour can get back in ten weeks from that position to one where they could win an outright majority given the state of the economy.
So far as the Labour share is concerned, it looks like either Angus Reid or most of the other pollsters will have egg on their faces come the election, unless the results have converged by then.
With US interest rates rising and this news the £ is down 2 cents against the USD.
If the polls keep narrowing, expect more of the same.
Inflation is not going to fall if that happens…
38 - The QT audience in the heart of Labour core territory didn’t seem to too keen on voting Labour. So, maybe others might just be the winners this time around.
January retail figures due out today, more bad news ?
36. cathynewman
Joan Bakewell - who advises government on older people - wasn’t invited to tomorrow’s summit on care for the elderly. Odd…
Doh!
43
Old people don’t count, obviously.
42 The financial markets are anticipating abysmal retail figures and doubtless they will be - the excuse of course will be the wrong amount of snow. The degree of recovery in February (assuming no more snow) will be critical. One only needs to visit any secondary or tertiary retail location and the proportion of closures even in otherwise prosperous towns is frightening.
PfP - I’ve just taken the 65/1 on D.Miliband and 90/1 A.Darling on the next PM Market.
Left you a tenner at 50/1 on the former if you hurry.
Nice bit of bbc bias this morning on Breakfast tv, following burnhams line that todays care conference is none political, rather than yet another nulab party event the poor tax payer is stumping up for.
46 Really? I couldn’t find that 50/1 for DM. Presumably on betfair? Effectively a bet on Labour being the largest party post the GE and Gordon stepping aside, which would seem likely.
For a week now I have been pursuing a strategy of Backing LAB at 8.2 and 8.4 and Laying CON at 1.14 but also Backing a CON Overall Majority at 1.50.
This leaves a big hole between around 280 and 326 CON Seats with which I am reasonably comfortable.
Very little movement on the Party Seats markets or on the Party Line.
:anecdote:
Was down me local yesterday playing chess/backgammon with me old mucka’ and ‘es sez that the election will turn on May 1st. ‘Old out eyes’ sez, the election iz men’t t’be on May 6th?
Any ideas…?
It would be good to have PtP’s views on the current state of play. AFAIAA, he’s not been around for a couple of weeks, possibly more.
47. Bias on the Today programme this morning hits a new high. What with the economists letters to the FT, Nicholas Winterton, and Dame Joan Bakewell condemning the Tories they are having a field day. Naturally no mention whatsoever of the headlines in the Times and the Telegraph about the state of economy. I sometimes wonder how the Cosnervatives managed to get a poll lead at all. James Naughtie sounding very chirpie (unlike yesterday).
re 2. But only with IE. The sensible browsers like Firefox and Chrome are fine.
Anyway it is fixed.
by Mike Smithson February 19th, 2010 at 2:04 am
Don’t pander to IE6 users! It only encourages them to delay moving to a browser that was released this century
Disagreeing with Labour is not going to war with Help the Aged, Tim.
53 spot on, Since I switched to Google chrome, my browser never crashes. IE8 regularly has to close down. its useless.
RE the poll: I hope it encourages Brown to go soon. Then the nation can breathe a sigh of relief.
BTW What is happening with the Chilcot inquiry? Isn’t Gordon supposed to be making an appearance? It all seems to have gone very quiet on that front.
55 Unfortunately, his nature is to leave it to the last moment.
This week’s economic news has been mostly very bad, which is probably another reason for him to delay, in the hope that things improve.
The current headlines on the BBC News website are “Backing for spending cuts delay” and “Tories to boycot health talks”. I thought for a moment I was reading the Daily Mirror! It would be laughable if there were not signs that the BBC’s mendacious ‘Save Brown’ strategy might be starting to work.
55
I have switched back to IE8 from Firefox due to frequent (hourly) crashes with Java/Flash problems. IE8 v stable so far..
58. The BBC are jubilant this morning. The bias has hit an all time high and is clearly going to be the way they run their election coverage. Weed out any bad news for Labour however serious and maximise anything they can get the Tories on however trivial or distorted. Almost a definition of bias. I had to turn the Today programme off.
Great interview with Andy Burnham - totally accepting of what he is saying. No scepticism on show whatsoever.
Noise. We saw last time there were regular noise-changes (and larger than this).
61. Funnily enough in a studio two way on the economists’ letters on the Today programme they went seamlessly from condemning the Tories for planning to cut too soon and endangering the ‘fragile recovery’ to condemning them for not putting forward sufficient plans for cuts this year. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Very handy.
BBC doing a far better job for the Labour Party than members of the cabinet are. Last night on QT with 10 weeks left before an election, Roy Hattersley is dug up to remind Britain how he saved the steel industry when he was in government. If Hattersley is really the party’s best spokesman…
“So Labour, on this poll, has lost just one in nine of the voters who supported what was then Tony Blair’s party on May 5th 2005.”
I just don’t think that’s credible, given the disasters that have happened since then. Even Labour supporters can’t be totally blind to facts, reason and experience in that way. ARS numbers are far more convincing. I’m still predicting a healthy if not overwhelming Conservative majority. If Labour do come back to be the largest party, it will be the most sensational comeback since, well, the last time they messed the country up and persuaded everybody to forget about it.
Completely off-topic:
[Src. HYS, Al-Beeb]
Have we finally found JackW’s mother. [If so, boy does she have a lot to answer for...!]
58 Actually, I don’t think it is. A polling deficit of 26/32 to 39/40 doesn’t give much ground for optimism. There is too much bad economic news coming through now for the government to have much hope.
Aren’t they running the ‘74 election on the parliament channel today? My favourite election, think I could be having another night chewing my nails.
See a lot of economists have written to the FT supporting the government. Ah! economists making astrologers feel good about themselves. I think May holds the record as to how many times anyone can say, ‘Richard Branson’ in one sentence.
Oh of course this poll narrowing shouldn’t be happening, now should it.
Cheer up folks, we have Rawnsley in the Ob to look forward to this weekend
PeterWatt123 In my experience Nicholas Winterton isnt the only MP who thinks first class travel is a right that MPs ‘need’ to do their job. Glass houses?
paulwaugh
Why is Jim Naughtie banging on about the need for ‘political consensus’? I thought elections were about a choice.
67. Always assuming that the public get to hear about the bad news on the economy. At the moment the collective media insanity of backing Brown is doing an excellent job of minimising, distorting and generally misleading the public about the economy. Makes efforts at misleading the public over WMD look amateurish by comparison. Is the post election verdict going to be ‘the country was taken to a fourth term Labour victory on a lie’?
O/T.
This morning’s Mail reveals the (official) Tories have a paper on candidate selection revealing the true centralised nature of that party which belies anything they ever pretend about devolving power. As control freaks go, the Khamereon Crew are to Alistair Campbell as Atletico Madrid are to Accrington Stanley.
Besides telling party apparachniks that they should deceive ordinary members about what they are doing, the ‘undercover’ (sic) paper reveals a plan to stuff the Commons Tory benches with geriatric teenagers (or is it teenage geriatrics?) like Michael Gove.
The paper also calls for “white male members to be handled sensitively”. At last! A suitable job for GideO!
Could Brown be about to call the election, seems to me that the easter interruption might even benefit Labour since
a) More tories than labour will go on holiday
b) Politicians will tone down the campaign for several days
c) no budget
d) no growth figures
e) Small element of surprise
For once Brown is going to have to gamble and go early as possible.
Yesterday up today down zzzz
Sigh.
MORE margin of error stuff.
Oh it all makes cash to fill the polling bosses pockets!
73. Wage Slave - I think you’ll find this refers to a paper written in 2002.
So Dave doesn’t like his daughter listening to Lilly Allen.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7032881.ece
Errr isn’t she a Labour supporter?
75 Indeed IIRC the You Gov tracker during the party conference season was back where it started. In any even one pollsters figures are meaningless, unless of course they are spot on
Gosh this is going to get boring. Does anybody seriously believe there are significant shifts in voting intention across a couple of uneventful days? Of course there isn’t.
7. And it’s NOT a tracker. It’s a separate poll.
I’ve been plucking up courage for weeks to ask what the difference is. Does tracker = ask the same sample?
78 Blimey Coldstone, that’s more pathetic than usual.A new low for you. I have full confidence that you will try to sink to the bottom of the barrel.
77.
So the Tories plans to deceive and manipulate their own members been kept under wraps for over SEVEN YEARS!
I see the £ is tanking already..
Do any PBers know what is happening with Chilcot? Has Brown’s appearance been scheduled yet?
#78, by coldstone February 19th, 2010 at 8:29 am
So Dave doesn’t like his daughter listening to Lilly Allen.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7032881.ece
Errr isn’t she a Labour supporter?
And wot? I have listened to RATM for nearly - but not quite - two decades. Can’t see me rushing to overthrow capitalism, can you….
BBC seems to be in full election-mode spinning furiously for Labour. The coverage on 5 live about this health care “summit” was startlingly anti-tory.
The prominence given to these economists who think we can simply carry on spending like drunken Greeks until the IMF come knocking was amazing as well, especially given that they must have written the letter well before the disastrous January borrowing numbers. In any case an interview with some guy from Warwick university (one of the signatories) just said he didn’t want big cuts this year - which is also the tory position
They were still on about Winterton as well in a small way. Nicky Campbell does a pretty good job of hiding his pro-labour bias, but not a perfect job…
My mmemory of 1997 was of labour dominating the news agenda and winning the “spin” war hands down every time. They aren’t quite as good these days, and the tories are still well capable of ineptness and slow reactions it seems. Come one tories sort it out, I don’t think I could stand a hung parliament.
What’s the betting that the BBC will ignore the Rawnsley revellations, no matter how sensational the stories about Brown, yet bang on and on about the Labour love-in over the weekend? That is what Brown expects of the BBC, and they will no doubt oblige obediently.
86. Jon C. Same story on the Today programme, although probably more measured than 5Live. Economists’ letters, Winterton, Health summit. It’s a full on offensive.
53 I have to use IE6 at work
We are all very excited here though, because maybe, soon, we MIGHT be allowed to upgrade to Office 2003…
FPT 479, on Mock the Week:
Chris Addison is a tosser. A leftwing tosser who has written that he could never vote Tory. Unsurprising he’s having a go. It was mostly anti-Tory, but it was a set of light shots about posters. When Brown gets hit, it’s about enormous, crippling debt, or total incompetence.
O/T.
More than 60 leading economists have written to the Financial Times in support of the Government’s plan to delay public spending cuts until 2011.
This suggests that the implementation of what the Tories (on even-numbered days of the week) say is their plan would be disastrous. But of course an even worse scenario is the reality. Tories have no detailed plans to make the ‘neccessary cutbacks’ they keep going on about. Certainly nothing they can be honest with the electors about. So if they got into government they would either go on the rampage like loonies, slashing here there and everywhere till they hit their paper targets and creating chaos and stagnation. Or they would sit like rabbits gazing into car headlights as they did when the crunch hit in the first place.
87. Lighteningrod
I have no doubt you are spot on there.
90. Wage Slave - the economists letters to the FT have been a hot topic of discussion on the last two threads. Do keep up.
85
Ah! its subliminal you don’t realise it, but you’ve been brainwashed, (the Manchurian Candidate) one day you’ll hear a trigger word and then its off to the barricades.
You lot will love this.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-ignore-the-propaganda-and-spin-ndash-the-tory-party-hasnt-changed-1903987.html
Right up ‘yer street.
#90, by wage slave February 19th, 2010 at 8:37 am
O/T.
More than 60 leading economists have written to the Financial Times in support of the Government’s plan to delay public spending cuts until 2011.
You are Boris Yeltsin and I claim my five Roubles.
83 Pound hits 9-month low vs dollar
Shock, not!
82. Wage Slave. It means the Daily Mail has dug up a completely out of date document dating back to Hague’s time, that has no currency, in an attempt to get Cameron, in line with their anti Cameron tactics.
90
Its a question of credibility. The 60 economists are just hoping that the markets believe we will be good boys in 2011. If they stop believing they will turn on Britain with a vicious suddenness, like they did with Greece. Quite a gamble to take.
83.
” Dave doesn’t like his daughter listening to Lilly Allen.”
I’m sittin
In my bedroom
An i ssee my effin dad on the telly
I wish he’d do summat wiv his bald patch
Jus be natural wiv it like Prince William
Why does he have to be so emBARRASSING
tellin everybody bout my Ipod?
Its bad enough seein all those
AIRBRUSHED
Posters of him all along the road as the chauffeur drives me to school
My freinds go on about it somfing chronic.
I feel like writin a letter to the Daily Mail
Tellin them about when he borrows my
HAIRBRUSH
And doesnt give it back
Or about those picture in the bottom draw
of his desk. of him and Uncle Boris
And Uncle Gideon
who
we
have
to
Call ‘George’ these days.
Wot a naff name George is anyway.
A name suitable for a tortoise
Praps that’s why he chose it?
94.
“You are Boris Yeltsin and I claim my five Roubles”
I beleive that Boris once laid 50 economists end to end. Or was that a different Boris?
80 - Constan, a tracker has a small fresh sample each day and adds (typically) the last three days together. the theory (which doesn’t seem to work out in practice) is that this rolling approach will smooth out sudden fluctuations. Anyway, the Sun approach is the opposite - they take a full fresh sample each day based on whoever has replied that day (in this case, presumably anyone who replied yesterday).
I don’t think the position is exactly that we’ve only lost one in nine 2005 Labour voters. When the poll details come out I think they’ll show that we’ve lost about one in six, but also that we’ve gained from new voters and LibDems (as well as, invisibly to a poll of current voters, from more non-Labour voters going to the great free market in the sky).
I had a sweet undecided voter on the phone yesterday - he is terminally ill and thinking deeply about how to cast his vote for posterity: we had a long chat. When I thought I had cancer a couple of years ago my interest in politics diminished sharply until it was cleared up, rather to my dismay (I’d thought I’d be idealistic till I croaked, but evidently not) - nice to see some people are better than that.
97 I’m impressed by their certainty that foreigners will continue to lend us as much money as we like, on whatever terms we like.
What strikes me is just how small a return we’ve got for all the government borrowing. We’ve had no growth over the past 5 years, yet the national debt has doubled, yet our government assures us that things would have been even worse without all that borrowing.
100. NPMP
“When the poll details come out I think they’ll show that we’ve lost about one in six, but also that we’ve gained from new voters and LibDems”
For new voters, read “immigrants arriving in the past five years”, Nick?
Wage Slave - Cameron’s daughter is 6 years old. An age I’m sure you can identify with.
:Breaking-News:
Nick Palmer, sometime resident of a free high-class flat in London*, expolits the dying to his venial benefit. Good to see a socialist maintaining the usual standards.
:edit:
Not breaking news. Socialists == shytes.
* Tax-payer funded, exempt from taxes. Falls within the remit of his IR35 no doubt.
103 PollyB. We all have something of the child in us Polly …. put the kettle on ….
Lilly Allen
Allen claims to have grown up with her mother in a working class environment, living in a council house environment for most of her childhood. This seems at odds with the fact that she attended some of the UK’s costliest public schools; Allen attended 13 schools in all, including Prince Charles’s junior alma mater, Hill House School, Millfield, Bedales School, and a primary school in Leixlip, Ireland, and was expelled from several of them for drinking and smoking.
Another champagne socialist.
Brown to appear before Chilcott on 4th or 5th March:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/02/exclusive-browns-chilcot-appearance.html
UK 10 Year Gilt is now 4.21%.
In 3 days, the cost of servicing our debt has increased by £2 billion.
Sterling down 2 cents to the dollar.
On Topic. As predicted yesterday, the noise of a daily poll reduces it’s value.
58 / 60 /86
More paranoid, biased, anti-BBC nonsense from Tory voters.
107, surely ‘champagne chav’?
Could we see the Winterton Swingback (TM) after yesterday’s car-crash radio? Some of the Macclesfield Mouth’s utterances are repeated endlessly in the GE campaign, just enough to push the polls into hung territory.
The results are in: NOM. None of the leaders show leadership, there’s a gilt strike and a dogpile on the pound. Economy tanks even further. All because a pompous ass of a Tory made an organ of himself on a wireless station listened to by people who take standard class trains and my wear white socks when not on the tennis court.
Surely the half-term holiday must be having some impact upon the polls?
There have been plenty of visitors around my touristy neck of the woods this week.
105. Jack W Polly …. put the kettle on …
Sexist bastard!
85 - I enjoyed how totally mixed up that article was:
“Advertisers who improperly target children and sexualise the young would be banned from bidding for official contracts for three years under a Conservative government… The Tory leader revealed that he had “worries” over songs by Lily Allen and had tried to stop his six-year-old daughter Nancy from listening to the pop star.”
This is bad news for Allen’s bid to wrest the Home Office facilities management contract from Serco.
112, by visitors do you mean overseas holidaymakers, or rogues shipped in from Calais to vote Labour?
113 PollyB. White, one sugar luv …. Ta !!
February 1974 has just started on BBC Parliament!!!!!!!!!!
107. Thanks MD - I was wondering what had happened to Chilcot. After all the hype around Blair’s appearance it seemed to go rather quiet.
101
I keep hoping I am going to wake up, but the nightmare on debt keeps getting worse and worse.
Someone at work is thinking of buying a house, but he’s mad, and should wait until after the election when the lies have to stop and the true picture will emerge. I am not expecting good times ahead whoever wins.
100 I don’t think I’d vote any differently, if I was terminally ill.
117 Andy. Feb 74 - Hung parliament …. Clearly a BBC conspiracy to give the Conservatives a fit of the vapours !!
I think Iain has not thought that through.
Dale saying March election ruled out as Brown would have to appear at Chilcot on March 4th or 5th. I think it makes it even more likely he’ll go for March 25th now.
Brown calls the election for March 25th on 1st March as the schedule would dictate. Then he would not attend as it would be mid campaign and he would say it could be prejudicial to the election campaign. Perfect excuse. Makes March 25th even more likely now in my opinion.
109 - Look, Ben. It’s quite simple. Any story run by any news outlet which isn’t totally in line with what I reckon is not just biased but also part of as massive conspiracy by definition. The only other alternatives is that there I am sometimes wrong, or journalists are sometimes wrong for perfectly innocent reasons, or there is more than one way to view the world. All of these possibilities can be discounted out of hand.
119 I can’t really think of any Western country that one can be optimistic about. They’ve all mortgaged their future, and all believe the rest of the World owes them a living.
103.
“Cameron’s daughter is 6 years old”
Michel Gove is her bessie mate?
119. wait until after the election when the lies have to stop and the true picture will emerge
If the unthinkable happens and Gordon hangs on could the verdict on the election be ‘the country was taken to a fourth term Labour victory on a lie?’. WMD mark two.
Geoff Randell is a MUST READ for any Conservative supporters.
He explains why Mrs Madasafish is uncertain to vote Tory and why I am unsure…
What are the core beliefs of modern Conservatives? Is it anything more philosophical than hollow managerialism? Answers on a postcard, please. Until they arrive, let’s settle for some unambiguous policies. For a start, stop being defensive about slimming down the state’s payroll.
Imo a very well written article summing up the dichotomy evident in the Conservative position…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/7266568/Studying-history-is-vital-there-are-obvious-lessons-for-Cameron.html
101. Sean - yes indeed.
I thought Robert Skidelsky was very disappointing on the radio this morning - much as I admire his scholarship, his airy dismissal of the importance of bond markets and international financial flows showed him to be worryingly out of touch with reality.
105.
“We all have something of the child in us”
UR Denise Van Outen and I claim my % Clydesdale Bank baubies?
Welcome to pb.com, co-sponsored by Mogadon, Ritalin, Prozac and Valium.
There are two interesting things about this poll, one of which has been much commented-on, one of which has not. Labour’s score is interestingly high. The Tories’ score is interestingly static. The combined Tory/Labour tally has rarely exceeded 70% since the Brown bounce of 2008. It does so in this poll. Are we seeing a polarisation or just random noise? We’ll see.
109 No, it was bad this morning.
Mind u Theresa Villiers does the party no favours. She is lacklustre, uninspiring, hesitant. As she is also female I am wondering why tim has yet to put the boot in.
Would still like someone to explain what a tracker is btw.
Why would the Tories put a bull like Lansley incharge of a china shop like health? I can’t think of anything more motivating to centre and centre left voters than the sight of the glorious Joan Bakewell planting her knee deep into Lansleys groin.
83, 95. And an all time low, ever, against the Oz dollar IIRC
115 “by visitors do you mean overseas holidaymakers, or rogues shipped in from Calais to vote Labour?”
Nope, I mean British holidaymakers escaping the conurbations for the week. Lots of families with rather ‘precious’ children about.
128 If the entire world was in recession, lending to fiscally incontinent Western governments might still be the safest thing to do.
When much of the World is growing rapidly (as the emerging economies are) lending to fiscally incontinent Western governments is a good deal less attractive.
127. Madasafish - who would you rather have running the country Brown or Cameron? That is the choice.
102/104: No, budgie, it’s possible to be too obsessed with immigrants - the number of people who’ve arrived in the last five years and (a) acquired British nationality and (b) signed up for YouGov must be vanishingly small. The new voters are primarily people who were under 18 in 2005.
104: fluffy, don’t be silly, it should be possible to discuss the impact of changes in the electorate without being accused of venial exploitation of the dying. I cite in evidence one D. Cameron, who observed last week that it’s no good the Tories focusing on people who last voted Tory in 1992, since many of them have passed on.
The Conservatives (and the media) have done very little yet to sketch out what a fourth-term Labour government would look like.
It would be Gordon Brown TRIUMPHANT.
- Ed Balls as Chancellor. Other loyal Brownites rewarded and Blairites like Milliband moved downwards, sideways or out.
- Harriet Harman would be given full leave to pursue her agenda.
- More direct and indirect state control over business.
- A rollback of divisive home ownership and an expansion of “social housing”.
- Increased trade union responsibilities in delivering public services.
- A merger of the three armed forces.
- The extension of both higher NI and tax rates, with some money handed back in tax credits to a grateful populace.
- The introduction of ID cards and a coordinated public services database.
- An attack on “kulak” private education and healthcare, which offer the few a choice denied to the many.
The Labour Party has a massive payroll vote and it is stirring. The future is dark, the future is Brown.
Constan - see post 100.
Meanwhile there is another story about the government’s incompetence during the financial crisis here -
‘Sir Nicholas expressed his deep concerns about underwriting the deposits of Icesave, Landsbanki’s online savings business, and warned that Britain might not be repaid, Mr Darling overruled both the civil servant and the Bank of England, ordering the Government to extend a multibillion-pound loan to Reykjavik…Sir Nicholas’s warning proved to be prescient’
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article7032886.ece
127, I’d back PollyB at 135.
The choice is simple:
Guaranteed deluded incompetence with Brown, or a somewhat unknown quantity with Cameron. Even if Cameron turned out to be pure evil, could he do a better job wrecking the country than Labour? I don’t believe so. I also have some optimism about him and am certain he is the best of the party leaders to be PM.
Brown will not want to go to Chilcot, it really does expose him to lies and trip ups, the labour hierarchy will not want him there as it dredges up the whole iraq war anger again.
Well, it would be another Houdini from Brown. Well i’ll come on March 4th but sorry, i want to come and testify but i just called the election so it will have to wait until after the GE, you know prejudicial and all that. Perfect.
Lansley is a muppet.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/7257824/Hospitals-face-fine-if-patients-sent-back-to-wards-Andrew-Lansley.html
This is stupid. Talk about perverse incentives!
Of course Labour’s target obsession is damaging - and readmissions are too often the result. But to fine them? That will just lead to hospitals unnecessarily bed blocking for fear of fines.
130. Constan Treader. I refer you to NPMP’s post at 100 explaining the difference between a tracker and a non tracker poll.
127.
“What are the core beliefs of modern Conservatives?”
The same as ever.
‘Power for our crew, not theirs’. ‘We are the ruling class after all!’ But the usual smokescreen of godliness and morality is wearing a bit thin, which is probably why at least half a dozen seriously- Tory mainstream commentators have addressed this issue. Oh, and Melanie Phillips too, from her Jerusalem bunker.
If this poll is correct and the combined effect of the totally biassed BBC, Times and Sky, and to a slightly lesser extent the Telegraph,Independent and Guardian, is to get Macavity and his corrupt gang back in power,I am going to write to my ex military pals and see if we can get a military coup to get rid of Brown (and the BBC).
130.
“she is also female I am wondering why tim has yet to put the boot in.”
You haven’t been monitoring the Tiger/Terry/Cole stories haver you?
Where Tim leaves his wellies is entirely a private matter.
135: Polly, just pressing the “we are not Gordon Brown” button is getting the Tories diminishing returns. There comes a point where people say, “OK, but what *are* you?” That’s why it was a strategic error not to have a Clause 4-like showdown with the Wintertons of the party - the amorphous coalition of wildly different types still accepted in the Parliamentary party leaves people scratching their heads.
Labour has always had this problem too, but it’s one advantage (against many drawbacks, electorally) of being in government - people have a clearer idea of them, even if they think of it as the devil they know.
136-And Commonwealth immigrants who have not acquired British citizenship.
Surely it’s time we restricted the franchise?
130 - How long is it since the Torie put Baroness Warsi on the media?
They keep using their b to z listers - Villiers,Hague etc.
pfp - the 50/1 was there at 7am.
Is no one watching the 1974 election night replay on BBC Politics? I think it’s excellent that the Beeb replays them from time to time.
144
Wage slave
Thanks for your answer down to you usual low standards…
(We all can see from Tony Blair he was only init for the money)
137. And you forgot to add gerrymandering the political system effectively ending democracy in this country as we know it. It has always been new labour’s intention to consign the Tories to total impotence, useful only as a scapegoat when necessary.
142 - No, its an incentive to the Hospital to stop the shocking attitude of releasing frail and sick people before they should be. Too much of a chop shop attitude in hospitals these days and too many administrators telling Doctors that people must be sent home.
It wont lead to bedblocking, thats rubbish, it may lead to a more responsible attitude and perhaps a less cavalier attitude. At the same time it might stop unnecessary admissions also and home care for those who don’t need to be in hospital.
In my opinions GPs need to be the first reformed, thats where it needs to begin.
137 But all undermined by foreign lenders, I should think.
140.
I don’t think MD’s analysis is far from the mark. Only thing is Khamereon is as deluded in his own way as is Gordo. Our nation has a political class 80 per cent of whom wouldn’t be allowed to manage a small department store - for very good reasons.
146
NPMP
Thank you. I agree.
Thank God my Australian resident visa has come through.
re 36. Your bet was carefully drafted but all part of your highly selective use of numbers. It’s not the net figures that are used for comparison but the proportion saying they approve.
AR does approval ratings and in the latest poll were:-
Brown 31% approve 60% disapprove
Cameron 44% approve 40% disapprove
Clegg 38% approve 29% disapprove
See http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/table_voting04_bri.pdf
These are very close to the MORI figures.
150.
” your answer down to you usual low standards”
You do like to look ‘down’ on the truth from your ‘high horse’ don’t you?
(1974) Ha ha ha! Trade Union dinosaurs! “Naw, naw, naw”
“A proliferation of candidates” = five (!)
9 year-old boy being stabbed to death may affect news agenda
Morning all.
There was an interesting piece on the Today programme amidst the normal blizzard of anti-Tory pieces, namely the interview with the Plaid Cymru leader, who is shamelessly rubbing his hands with glee at the thought that a possible hung parliament might give him leverage for pork-barrel back-room deals.
It will be interesting to see if the realisation of what a hung parliament would mean in practice penetrates through to the electorate.
Labour vote % double that of last years Euro elections ?
Lol - vapours at yougov more like.
Meanwhile the betfair Con majority tracker is -0.01 @ 1.47.
146. NPMP. I know well enough what Cameron’s Conservatives stand for - that’s why I am supporting them, for the first time. I don’t understand what the problem is, altho I know it is repeated endlessly in the media. I also now know exactly what Gordon Brown’s labour party stand for - something so horrible I never thought British politics would sink this low.
152 laurenceallen
But premature release is due largely to waiting time targets; scrapping those will alleviate a large part of the problem by itself, without the fines being necessary.
Whenever you have targets, or fines, they can always be gamed. The question is whether this gaming is acceptable or not.
In Feb 1974 Ladbrokes took a total of £920,000 on the election result and William Hill £750,000.
O/T or maybe not, as it is relevant to what people see/hear re polls, Skynews paper review, the first ‘discussion’ as is right was the Mail ‘inside’ page re Wooten Basset, followed by the ‘only’ front page ’shown’ and discussed was daily mirror story headline mr snobby, about the idiot winterton, ends with the Express’s good life family.
very telling, about where sky, murdoch, bbc and the rest of MSM are, i really am so angry with all this bias, it is a joke ‘the sun backs tories’ where? perhaps under labour murdoch had it real cushty, perhaps he’s been promised something?
something really really stinks here, it appears that MSM are of the same ilk as labour, treat the people as idiots, lap up as much cream possible, full of gullible cretins, self interest more important than the Nations interest.
Who was the presenter of the election night coverage in 74?
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/brown-threatens-to-fly-plane-into-office-of-national-statistics-201002192487/
One of the problems that the Conservatives haveis the problem that faces most Parties when they have been out of power for a decade or more. As it gets closer to deciding where to put their crosss, there will inevitably be those who will vote for the devil they know..
IMO, there is a danger that the Conservatives will be seen as a one or two man show. The voters know DC and George Osborne, but aisde from us political anoraks, how many people are familiar with the other Conservatives who would be part of Dave’s team in a Conservative Government?
The next best known Conservatives are cuddly Ken Clarke, who is likeable, but is kept out of the firing line. David Davis, that defender of civil liberties who resigned on a point of principle, again likeable, but kept out of the firing line and Boris, who will not be part of the next Government.
Eric Pickles has been given more prominence lately, but at a time when the public perception of MP’s is one of pigs with their snouts in the trough, his physical appearance is, shall we say, unfortunate.
Nick Palmer,
I have nothing but admiration for your contributions to this site. That said I find your political-views as bemusing as Richard Layard’s take on economics. [I'm in the Goodhart/Morishima fold as far as the LSE is concerned.]
I know OGH dislikes the constituency link regarding MPs duties, but I question your motives for posting an emotive issue relating to a constituent of yours. Please explain how this relates to the site’s purpose and not your political survival*.
Chahs’
* Else use an off-topic tag.
166. The last thing the media want is a landslide - where are the viewing figures in that ?
146 - Nick, in fairness asking the Tories to have a Clause IV type showdown is a bit unrealistic because they do not have anything in their constitution as obviously in need of change as Clause IV was. It is far harder to root out dispirate views or to oust MPs whose views are deemed “unacceptable” - not to mention fundamentally undemocratic.
As to the comment that the “amorphous coalition of wildly different types” in the parliamentary party leaves people scratching their heads” - I give you Alan Simpson and Dennis Skinner in one corner, David Miliband and Peter Mandelson in another. Remove the mote etc…
Your post seems like a demand for homogeneity, moderation and central control - three of the things most wrong with our body politic today.
But I agree that pressing the “we are not Gordon Brown” button is offering diminishing returns.
That said, given the corrosive nature of long-term opposition, the hostility of the media, a still-comfortable poll lead and Labour’s unending capacity for doublethink, I am not surprised that Cameron and his team seem content charting a a quiet course for now.
167 - Alistair Burnett. He was still presenting News At Ten until about 1992 IIRC.
The retail sales data are terrible - down 1.8% on the month and December revised down to -0.2% as well…oops Labour
Health is one of those ones that is a complete nightmare and one i think frankly no-one is ever going to be satisfied on, its one of those thing electioning should stay as far away as possible, its an electoral minefield, damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Somethings need to change, some things don’t but that balance is never going to make everyone happy.
The whole change around in the NW London hospitals is one example, i think its a good idea they have decided to make each hospital specialised. The budgets are screwed but The Royal Free is becoming A & E and certain specialised, no outpatients. The Whittington will probably become the outpatient and mental ward units. Its all change. I don’t envy anyone with the health portfolio, its a political killer.
155. Madasafish. What are you agreeing with? Cameron has outlined his policies more thoroughly than any previous opposition I can remember. Do you really want to let Brown in through the back door, even when there is no Labour manifesto, and absolutely no clarity in their policies on the economy or anything else? NPMP’s forlorn argument is ‘better the devil you know’. Well we do know that Brown has been a disaster unfit at every level to lead the country. Is that the devil you want?
LATEST:
UK retail sales fall at their sharpest monthly pace for 18 months
from BBC ticker.. ONS stat document not up yet
The only explanation for Labour being as high as 32%, in my opinion, is dislike of Tory toffs, privilege etc. Having Nicholas Winterton complaining about a “different class of people” is exactly the sort of thing Labour needs in order to stay at that level in the polls. Cameron must be fuming about it.
on more important news: bbcnews ticker:
UK retail sales fall at their sharpest monthly pace for 18 months, figures show.
we are heading for a double dip. The question those who are betting need to answer is this… what will happen when Q1 is announced as negative.
171. I don’t buy the line that the media are backing Labour to keep the public hooked. They didn’t back the Tories in 1997 to keep their ratings up did they?
Something that occurred to me about the closing of polling gap is that there must be quite a few Blairites who are getting worried. For them the optimal outcome would be a hung parliament with the Tories ahead. The Blairites would expect to oust Brown for losing, and parliament to collapse with another election later in the year, when their choice of leader would have a greater chance of winning. If the polls keep closing and Brown achieves a shock victory the Blairites, and the New Labour project are finished.
If they can’t stand Brown, his cronies and politics now, just think how intolerable they will find Brown if he wins.
OT LOTS of passion about the Death Tax on R5 phone-in - about 70/30 against it, biggest objection is paying out again when feckless haven’t paid in at all.
Lots of anger about bailed out banks still too.
You’ve got to love some of the awfully bad hair cuts from the 70’s and miners pay claims.
179. Decent chance of that now…
Renewed rises in unemployment…falling consumer spending…spiralling government deficit and rising borrowing costs…it’s a miserable backdrop for the Labour Party.
All we need to complete the misery index is a renewed drop in house prices…already happening in the US…
181. Frankly it’s already been something of a rout for Blairites. Nearly all of them are standing down. They are clearly a spent force.
79.
“what will happen when Q1 is announced as negative.”
That depends whether or not the final calculation is due before or after March 25th.
Very youthful David Dimbleby on Election 74, with long hair.
Sales fall 1.8 percent
175 Almost everyone who works in medicine thinks it a good idea for hospitals to specialise, so that you have a criticial mass of really good staff in one place.
But, politically, it’s an absolute killer when the local A & E department or some other unit, closes down.
The closure of A & E at Edgware General contributed heavily to the Conservative rout in NW London in 1997.
178 And as is so often the case with Tory grandees, it’s not as if he comes from a particularly eminent background to begin with. They’re plastic toffs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaqNsSBIyKQ
Ken from Corrie appears in video against death tax
178. Andy JS
The only explanation for Labour being as high as 32%, in my opinion, is dislike of Tory toffs, privilege etc.
It would have nothing to do with ‘Tears for Piers’ then…..
Do you think they would ge away with an impressionist on BBC election night coverage now?
Mind you, he’s not very funny.
I must admit to being confused. A poll is published with only a seven point gap, and suddenly a lot of people are behaving like decapitated poultry (apart from NPMP who seems extraordinarily relaxed).
Can anyone explain why this YouGov poll is uniquely significant?
176
PollyB
I listen to the Shadow health Minister and I am confused after 2 minutes… Maybe I am thick or he is?
Well Brown is heading into a shiitstorm. I mean this is really looking like a disaster of all proportions.
This really looks bad from whatever angle you look at it. It makes the Govt look incompetent liars at best and at worst negligent in the extreme.
157 - Mike
It’s the movements in the net leaders ratings that affect the polls and the betting rather than the approval ratings.
Have a look at the run up to the 1992 election and you,ll see it was the fall in Kinnocks net ratings as his negatives rose that did the damage.
The same is happening to Cameron, it’s only Browns terrible net ratings maintaing a Tory lead at all.
184. Only think stopping a double dip is the Q4 figures being revised down to negative I would wager.
Worth a read..
http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2010/02/eyes-are-starting-to-open-and-see-world.html
“If we look at Greece, we are simply seeing the potential for the underlying reality of the Greek economy to be revealed. The Greek people are expected to react with anger to the austerity that they are facing. The problem is that their government has, in effect been feeding them an illusion that they are wealthier than they actually are. The Greek people, it seems, simply do not want to accept that they are much poorer than they believe. They are no different to the people in countries such as the UK or US. In all cases, people just want the credit taps held open, and want to believe that they can continue to live beyond the means of their real collective output of wealth.”
184. “Renewed rises in unemployment”
Good point, the three month average for Q1 is likely to be a significant rise if February and March are similar to January.
faisalislam
‘2010 must not see a double-dip’ says Brown today. I would say that means the election could be called ‘early’ March/ April
123
I am not sure how it would be possible to objectively demonstrate that the BBC is biased against the tories to someone who has no view on the subject.
Maybe we need Stars and Stripes or someone else who posts on here form abroad to spend some private time reading the BBC news website front page today, or listening to Radio 4 or Radio 5 news, then give us their view.
Personally, I don’t see how you can deny it today - I am seriously considering a complaint about the BBC website top stories and the mini-paragraphs on the front page which could have been written by the bunker. They have stopped even pretending to be neutral.
166 - The Sun have had a spread a week at least with David Cameron setting out his agenda. Most leaders have also been pro-Tory since conference season.
A majority of broadcasters are trendy lefties, this is true, but panicking about the media helps no-one. The Tories need to work with what they have and try cultivate the parts of the press that are open to a Tory message. Getting the right-wing papers back onside should be priority.
But there is no way to spin a January deficit. That is the major advantage the Tories have.
193 it’s not.
193. Personally I am reacting to today’s news management rather than the poll. And in that respect NPMP has every reason to be more than relaxed.
86. Sorry, was referring to the Q4 2009 final figures.
193, I’m not. As I, and others, have said, it’s just noise.
194, Lansley is a plank.
Gordo on Sky now using falling tax revenues as an excuse to raise taxes AGAIN, I hope this party broadcast isn’t being paid for by me and not the liebour party. No point asking harriet as she will tell porkies or forget to turn up in case its a women only question session.
206 Eh? How’s that one going to work!?!
UK retail sales fell by 1.8% between December and January, the sharpest drop in 18 months, official figures show.
The reduction in sales volumes in the month after the Christmas period was more than three times faster than analysts had forecast.
From the Beeb.. who are these analysts that forecast just about every figure that comes out wrongly by a big factor ? Are they the same ones feeding into the treasury ? Gawd help us if they are.
Darling has nowhere to go with a budget.
Almost everyone who works in medicine thinks it a good idea for hospitals to specialise, so that you have a criticial mass of really good staff in one place.
It’s not just politically why it’s a killer. Economically too…..
Which is why they are medical professionals and not business / service strategists / economists. Centralisation is all very well until a) the services are not located where you need them and b) diseconomies of scale through over centralisation kick in. Increasingly both are true of the NHS.
To be honest thats an example the sort of professional elitist claptrap that destroys services making them unfit for purpose.
205
Lansley is a plank?
Can someone drill some sense into him ? The man gives me the impression that the Conservative second line are no less incompetent than their Labour counterparts..
Which is not a message I like receiving. Mrs Madasafish is underwhelmed.
201. I think that’s right David - the BBC bias is there and won’t go away as it is deeply institutionalised. The Tories have to work around it.
207 No idea but then again its not normal tax rise its a gordo tax rise.
209
Centralistaion is great until the roads fill up and patients die before they get to A&E.
The NHS likes BIG projects… small is accountable. Big is less so.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/19/who-is-really-ahead-in-the-polls
210. So I gather you won’t vote Conservative because you have some issues with Andrew Lansley?
“12 bombs in 2 hours” and yet the 74 election gives it less than a minute of tv time. How times have changed.
Looks like currency traders have been studying this yougov - £ looking as appealing as a cup of cold sick.
paulwaugh
Tory HQ caught plotting event to disrupt Brown’s election launch. http://bit.ly/cAYZAs
There’s no way in hell Darling could do a budget, these figures in the last few days just ripped his projections and forecasts to absolute pieces, his credibility is flushed round the U-Bend.
Where do Labour go from here, there are no good options frankly. Go early and “what are they hiding”, go late and its “they are just hanging on scared”. Its a labour mess of epic proportions.
196 - you are overlooking the fact that polls indicate Labour would be no more popular (indeed less so) with Harman, Miliband, Straw or Johnson at the helm. Admittedly those polls cannot be relied upon until the day has arrived, but to pretend that this is just a Brown issue is fatuous. Labour’s unpopularity runs right to the core.
I think we are seeing the result of a degree of frustration with the Conservatives - they have certainly not made a convincing case for government yet. It is noticable that support for the Tories on here has waned, with a number of posters who a year ago would have been regarded as firmly in the blue camp expressing doubts as to whether or not they will vote at all, or vote Conservative if they do.
In summary - unimpressive opposition beating unpopular government. If the Tories can ratchet up a gear I think there is scope for the gap to widen. I don’t think there is much more scope for a Labour recovery, absent a black swan.
Isn’t it awful that in Feb 1974 they could count the Cheltenham votes on the night but in 2010 the returning officer has decided to count the next day.
218 Some people can’t keep a secret can they
213. You know it and I know it still doesn’t change the fact that the NHS is becoming the biggest anchor around the British people’s neck there is (other than their master the Labour Government that is)……
222. Waugh says its a “dirty trick” - what excercise the British right to demostrate and express free speech ?
Hardly “Swiftboat” part 2.
P.S. Lansley is a plank.
Re: “So Labour, on this poll, has lost just one in nine of the voters who supported what was then Tony Blair’s party on May 5th 2005.”
Seems a bit implausible, doesn’t it?
I have a hypothesis that Lab vote in 2005 was a bit of an under-score. That is, quite a few Lab supporters who usually vote didn’t actually vote Lab, many ’cause of Iraq, in the expectation that Lab would still win, perhaps with a bit of a bl**dy nose. They got what they wanted, except they wanted rid of Blair sooner.
Had it been close and the Tory campaign not so pathetic, they might still have turned out. Now a Tory govt may be weeks away, some of them will turn out.
So if you up Labour to, say, a notional 38% for 2005 and assume 30% now (never taking a single goodish poll for Lab too seriously), that’s a more realistic one in five who have gone.
222 - bit mean of him to print the contact details..
224 Indeed.
222. Sophie Shrubsole is a hottie…
220. I concede that this is a fair summary Flockers, and something I hear from people in the real world as well as here. I seem to be in a loyal minority who find the Conservative policies clear and attractive. But then I’m not attracted to big ideologies of any kind, and once I am convinced by the direction of travel, and methodology, I think too much policy detail is fake and can be dangerous - removing opportunities for necessary flexibility. I like Cameron’s vision for the party and the country, I like his temperament and I like the methods of government he is proposing. Against that Brown really really frightens me.
From Iain Dale:
I have learned that Gordon Brown will appear before the Chilcot Inquiry on either Thursday 4th or Friday 5th March.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/02/exclusive-browns-chilcot-appearance.html
Early election? If Brown decides on 25th - dissolution is 1st, and the Inquiry will be suspended.
Burnham on R5 in 5 mins…
Sophie Shrubsole? What a magnificent name. I want to marry this girl. Although of course she wouldn’t then be called Sophie Shrubsole, so I’d need to divorce her immediately.
226 Kristin
The Goldman’s approach of leaving important messages by voicemail to limit any forwarding or reposting would be a good one for the insurgents that are Conservative Future.
When watching these rerpeats of old general elections, I usually play “spot the dead people”. I went off on a tangent a few minutes ago when I saw the father of someone I knew at university (he was one of the regional journalists).
225. i think that is a good analysis. i would have probably voted labour in 2005 if it had been an election were the outcome was in serious doubt, but because of Iraq voted Lib Dem. i know other people who did the same, and the national figures suggest there were probably 3-4% of people in a similar position and that a notional 38% for Labour in 2005 is probably about right.
now i am by no means sure who i will vote for this time, and all options are open including Tory if they can decide what their economic policy is and be consistent on that. but i do think the labour vote in 2005 was a bit of an underscore as well for the reasons you well articulate.
IIRC Anthony Howard is about to use the phrase “lower orders”, something you’d probably get arrested for if you said it on the BBC today.
I’m sorry, but this is almost laughable - call me cynical but I have noticed a pattern with YouGov.
On the 1st day of the Tory conference YouGov did a tracker poll for Sky which showed a 6% difference and this is what lead the news for most of the day.
Now you have a YouGov poll (with the Sun) showing a 7% gap, on the day that the economists! tit for tat letter is printed and Gordo makes an important speech about “right wing politicians”
I personally think it was wrong for the Sun to cut a deal with YouGov.
I am not saying YouGov have an agenda but……………
Have we heard anything from Poorie Poor since his last, spectacularly mis-timed, call to buy sterling against the dollar?
As we hit new 9 months lows on £:$ this morning I genuinely hope he got out of his positions quickly and is not still holding them.
225. The Tory campaign in 2005 was very far from being pathetic. It was concise, tightly run and did have a clear message, which was then dubbed ‘nasty’ by large parts of the media. Unfortunately Howard was not a charismatic figure and Labour played some lowdown smears against him, with their pigs poster and constant harping on his immigrant background. There’s was the really nasty campaign.
230. That rules out a March election then (Brown won’t dare try and wriggle out of Chilcot) So we’re down to four possible dates;
April 8th
April 15th
May 6th
June 3rd
232 Tut, you are being old-fashioned. You could take her name. ‘Sir Norfolk Shrubsole’ has a certain ring to it.
re 225. There’s something in that Martin.
224 ‘Dirty tricks’ describes what McBride, Draper and friends were/are getting up to under the ever watchful gaze of Brown’s blind eye. Organising a demo hardly merits that description.
229
Polly
I remember 1979 (!) and the Conservatives had a clear policy and direction and apart from Mrs Thatcher a very clear speaker Sir Keith Joseph - on policy and strategy. By no means a popular speaker but clear and concise.
People like Lansley should be kept in a dark room and never allowed near a microphone.
My comparison base is of much higher standrads.. Cameron is excellent. It’s the others..
So, Brown is going with Tories being right wing nasty party.. yawn
Where does he think the BNP voters come from ? WWC - ex Labour voters.
218. The dastardly villains!
Just as a thought experiment, if Labour really has lost only 1 in 9 of its 2005 voters, they should enjoy vast increases in vote share in Crewe and Norwich North at the GE, regaining both seats comfortably, no?
These 60 economists are to my mind insane, unless what they are really suggesting is that we default on our debt and then start again from there. No doubt cutting the deficit will be nasty and painful, no doubt it will reveal just what a mess we are really in, but at least we’ll have some sort of sensible economic future. Shackling ourselves to an upayable debt mountain that can only be repaid if we allow rampant inflation is insane.
100 138 143 ta.
Sky now picking up on Waugh story .. Glen O’Glaza.. dirty tricks ad nauseum
241 - I have now Facebook-ed her and she appears to be out of my league anyway. But if I was ten years younger and not so crippled with gout she would have been just my type.
240 Perfect excuse for Brown to wriggle out. He just says its prejudicial and wont appear til after.
Brown has given everyone the middle finger so far, why not this.
236. Ha ha ha! Yes I noticed that!
It seems odd how old-fashioned and dinosaurish everybody looks with their weird clothes and hairstyles. I wonder if we will look odd to BBC viewers in 2046?
Doesn’t Brown run the risk of p!ssing off leaders of centre right parties in Europe ? He’s more or less making out they all wear jackboots.
240. Doesn’t necessarily rule out a March election, GIN. I am sure that those are the dates pencilled in by Chilcot, but as far as I know there is no official announcement.
Obviously this wekend is a critical time for a decision on a March election and I wonder whether Gordo has asked Chilcot to keep the date unofficial until after the weekend, in order to keep his options open.
Seriously, that is not on leaving her mobile number on when printing her correspondence.
253. He doesn’t care. They are obstructing Brown’s path to ruling the world!
239
The electorate were simply not listening to the Tories. Put to the voters as individual policies, the public liked what they heard from the Conservatives - but as soon as the policies were identified as Tory in origin, the voters backed away in droves.
237
“I am not saying YouGov have an agenda but……………”
It is interesting that Andy Cooke puts forward an analysis that suggests that a hung Parliament requires a much closer result - and a week later the polls become closer.
- where’s Tapestry..?
252 - most people still looked ridiculously old-fashioned in 1979. Things didn’t change until 1983 and 1987. (I’m referring to the election programmes, not direct experience!)
249. How does a few fruity-looking Tory girls turning up to heckle Brown count as ‘dirty tricks’? It’s not exactly big league stuff is it?
Purnell to stand down - sh*t!
Purnell to stand down at GE
Re 260 : Source Skynews apparently reported by the Times….
124. Australia.
re the bbc bias, look at blether with brian, 1200 comments about not covering the real news and pitching froma biased viewpoint.
Looks like Browns main election plan is to neutralise the issue of the cuts and the economy. Several comentators saying they and the voters are totally confused by the various groups of rowing economists, with the BBC and rest of the media already helping by nicely confusing debt and defict
Brown will try and close off several areas of debate with confusion, then present a “clear choice” on the issues of his choosing
So Labour, on this poll, has lost just one in nine of the voters who supported what was then Tony Blair’s party on May 5th 2005.
Is that the right way to think about it? There are a good chunk of voters, around 3-5%, who switched away from Labour in 2005 due to Iraq, and could reasonably be expected to come back given the departure of Blair, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, and the passage of time.
Adding these back in to give the basis from which Brown has to work with, provides a notional Labour share of about 40%. 32% then represents the loss of one in five voters, which is more credible than merely one in nine.
I’d be surprised if Labour manage to receive more than 30% of the votes, though. Major lost just over a quarter of his vote share, and I expect Labour to do about the same.
Purnell? You’re kidding me.
260. Wow! Those canvass returns really must be bad…
The disconnect between some of the polls and the ongoing meltdown in the Labour Party is intriguing.
260/261
Is that a vote of confidence in Brown?
Sh!t
I had £20 on him as next Labour leader.
It was a long shot!
The Blairites have clearly given up the game.
March, April and June GE dates are still at 10/1 at Ladbrokes where they’ve been for quite some time.
260/261. Purnell has balls. He’s his own man.
A stark contrast with the rest of the bunch of charlatans that sit at the top of the Labour party.
267. We kid you not. That is one I wasn’t expecting. Brown is really purging the Labour party of any resistance to him. I wonder how long it will be before it becomes the #weloveGordonBrown Party…….
260. etc. So anyone who regards the Purnell/Cruddas alliance as the future of Labour needs to back Cruddas as next leader pdq - as long as you think he’ll keep his seat.
F1:
Bloody hell, they’ve got slicks on in Jerez. If this continues they might actually record some times worth noticing.
I wonder what prominence or lack thereof the Brown Propaganda Service will give the ONS figures.
You read it hear first:
James Purnell quits
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7033290.ece
jsfl your man with a mouse!
208. “From the Beeb.. who are these analysts that forecast just about every figure that comes out wrongly by a big factor ?”
In recent weeks the “analysts” have been wrong about GDP, inflation, retail sales, unemployment, and tax revenues. All of those have been worse than expected.
The often derided weather forecasters are better at their job than economic forecasters.
and again Purnell dropped his resignation right at Labour’s election launch and Browns big speech today. Brown will be throwing Nokias.
265. On cutting public spending this year: even if the worst did happen and we did slip back into recession for six months later this year I fail to see how that is worse than our credit rating being downgraded, having to make even more savage cuts next year and suffering decades of low growth and high interest rates.
Welcome to pb.com, co-sponsored by Mogadon, Ritalin and Prozac. There are two interesting features about today’s poll, one of which has much been commented on, one of which has not. The rise in Labour support is interesting. So too is the Tories’ non-movement. The combined Labour/Tory score has rarely exceeded 70% since the Brown bounce of 2008. In this poll it is 71%. Will this polarisation continue or is it just noise? We’ll see.
276 - fastest finger first eh
From that article..
But it is an even bigger setback for Mr Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, who would almost certainly have hoped to have Mr Purnell by his side were he to launch a bid for the Labour leadership, in the event of defeat at the election.
Mr Miliband now stands as the only prominent Blairite left in the field for a future contest, in which Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, Jon Cruddas, the influential backbencher, and Ed Miliband, the Climate Change Secretary and the Foreign Secretary’s brother, could be contenders.
So Milliband Snr for leader takes a knock.
Purnell is only 39 years old and only been an MP for less than 9 years.
He turns 40 on March 2nd. Maybe he wants a fresh start in his 40s.
277, Mr. glw, please stop talking the country down. Your hatred and unpatriotic post is clearly defeatist. Please report to your nearest Brown Centre for Learning to undergo mandatory re-education.
Purnell - a trougher with rather dubious personal cleanliness, but a politician who nevertheless had courage and vision.
He will be missed.
277
Most UK economists start by using the “Treasury model”.
It’s crap.
So they all get the same result.. Crap.
And the input data is also : crap.
So you have a model which does not worlk with wrong data. And people are surprised?
Darling is sueless butt it’s all his predecessor’s fault… He knew it was carp…
283 - He should consider doing what I’m considering doing for a midlife crisis and buy a sports car.
274. If MPs for Walsall and Stalybridge with 50% vote shares last time are chucking in the towel, Cruddas’ chances of hanging on look remote.
224.
“Lansley is a plank.”
Isn’t he meant to be the Shadow Minster for he confused?
F1 : Some interesting times again today, really does seem that several cars could be in the frame.
Re 276. Since the coup failed last summer what Brown has been doing is removing all those who resist him. If I was a Labour supporter I would really be concerned because Brown has said he’s staying and to be honest every signal suggests he is clearing out all his detractors. Basically, since the Euros its been like a slow motion night of the Longknives in the Labour Party. Whilst the country will likely get rid of Brown his party might not be able to…….
I wonder how long it will take the BBC to report this rather surprising news.
Shame. Hutton and Purnell would’ve been useful in helping to steer Labour away from feminazi lunacy or Ballsian insanity.
My guess would be that we will see a fluid 3-4% in these daily trackers as certain issues come to forefront daily in the news.
It is good for the Conservatives they remain on 40% and I tend to veer towards Andy Cooke’s analysis on the impact various poll leads will have.
My only presumption is that as we get closer to the election and after 13 years out of power - some voters who do not like the Conservatives and fear their return will hold their noses and vote Labour. But I do not think it will be, proportionally, that many.
It seems that there is a decent proportion of voters who while fed-up with this government are not really sure of the Conservatives and what they offer. That is, I feel, natural when you have had a long-term government. People can compare it to 1997 and the ‘overt support’ for Blair, but remember that was another 5 years down the line. Can anyone really say that if Labour won a 4th term that, that a change to the Conservatives would not be as equally desired as it was for Labout in 1997?
When the election comes I think voters will have to balance a decision - stick to what you know or take a slight gamble with a new party. In the cold light of the polling booth I expect (and hope) they will go for the change. Most voters like Cameron and trust him and the idea of a Conservative party, that has some strong ideas and has a track-record of making tough decisions for the good of the country against five more years of a Brown government; is I believe a decision where not many will go for the latter.
It is only a guess and somewhat uneducated, but my 2010 election predictions would be: C - 42 // L - 31 // LD - 20 // Others - 7 and a Conservative majority of around 35. But it is just a combination of gut feeling and hope!
A career in photoshopping beckons.
purnell was claiming the keft had a future.
http://tinyurl.com/yg9jvbe
link to sky.
284 - looks like the Labour will be lurching left, that used to make them unelectable and with the recent attitude survey showing people have moved rightwards makes for interesting times.
277. The quality of debate is terrible.
Clearly Darling wanted to ‘beat’ the Tories by announcing today that his list of economists was longer than their list of economists. He probably didn’t even care who was on it - just that he had as many signatures as possible.
It is political willy-waving. Nothing more.
So, yes, there may be 60 names on the list, but how many are eminent and respected forecasters and how many are Labour supporting lecturers from universities around the country?
They are not of equal value.
And how many bankers predicted the credit-crunch?
Um….
Left, not kelt - still only one good arm.
Darn. I always had Purnell down as a possible Lib-Dem defector if Labour chose Ed Balls as leader - Maybe the one that would spark the Blairite exodus and the eventual death of the Labour Party.
Sad, but not surprised about Purnell.
70.
“The Blairites have clearly given up the game”
They realise there is no worthwhile future for Tories in Gordo’s Labour Party.
I can’t log onto it at work, but you can still sell James Purnell for next Labour leader on SPIN at 1. Free money, surely. There’s also some to lay on Betfair.
291. The BBC are more concerned about the Battle of Bosworth. Maybe in another 600 years they will realize Brown was crap.
289, no, I see confusion as more of a temporary state rather than a deep-rooted personality trait which is permanent. If Lansley were confused, he might find clarity. But plankness and plankicity is permanent.
It could be worse though. He could be a deluded megalomaniac shitwit, like Brown.
290, for the title it should be the four team showdown that was widely expected. But the race for P5 might be almost as interesting. Toro Rosso, Force India and Sauber look possible.
Toro Rosso are particularly intriguing. They’re in a weird situation because they’ve never made their own chassis before, and used Red Bull’s. So, they have knowledge of an excellent car from last year, but no practical experience of doing it themselves. Would make teething problems but good pace seem likely.
This is weird, 2 supposedly Labour safe seats with majorities of 7910 for Walsall Sth and Purnells majority of 8500 both quit 2 days in succession, what are we missing here? Is Labour internal polling so bad that these guys are running away.
Seems weird 1 day before an election launch, you have 2 labour mps running off for no reason in moderatley winnable or non target seats.
One quote stood out from the Telegraph for me this morning….
“In the wake of the statistics, Treasury officials spent much of the morning calling round the City, urging major investors not to panic.”
When you see stuff like that you know speculators will take it as a cue to push harder a la ERM, and with no credible plans out there to staunch the deficit who in the markets is going to call their bluff?
For the record it should be noted that Alistair Darling and the Treasury came up with a tougher Pre-Budget report that would likely have significantly helped in a situation like this but he was ‘overruled by Gordon Brown’. I hope he got it in writing!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/6785629/Alistair-Darling-wanted-tougher-Pre-Budget-report-but-was-overruled-by-Gordon-Brown.html
as one guy on guido wrote.. you have admire Purnell’s timing just after Brown’s big sppeech and just before the big announcenent….
http://order-order.com/2010/02/19/sky-purnell-standing-down-at-ge/
291. Why is is a shame? Labour retreating further into a 1980s loony-left ghetto is great news for the Tories and the country at large. Labour need to be kept away from office for at least 15 years.
296. Casino. How dare you talk down the quality of these economists…
BenBradshawMP
The economists supporting Labour’s approach are more numerous. Aren’t they also better calibre than the Tories’
The party’s over.
There is only Brown (and Balls).
From a pluralist, broad church to a one man band - well the Dear Leader did study political history.
And Brown is definitely not going after the election. The malady lingers on.
Brown or Balls, Labour, take your pick.
It really is a perfect coup…
283. “277, Mr. glw, please stop talking the country down. Your hatred and unpatriotic post is clearly defeatist. Please report to your nearest Brown Centre for Learning to undergo mandatory re-education.”
Double plus good.
the talent pool such as there is in the Labour PLP is dying fast… NPMP will be a shadow cabinet minister at this rate…
Oh hang on, there’s a problem there too.
307, nice idea, but if the Tories are competent in office they’ll be unpopular due to the harsh measures needed, and Labour might return swifter than we expect.
With Purnell going, Balls looks like he will be the best candidate as Gordon strengthens his grip on the Labour Party.
204. Maybe they think its going to be a Hung Parliament and Brown will stay on with Lib-Dem support and they just can’t face the horror of it all.
300 ‘They realise there is no worthwhile future for Tories in Gordo’s Labour Party.’
wageslave, is there a space for Purnell with you and the Heffer-Lump in the UKippers?
Purnell standing down - WOW
313, not if my vote has anything to do with it.
Feb 74:
A very young looking Michael Jack as Tory candidate in Newcastle Central (currently MP for Fylde).
307 runnymeade, you got your figures reversed 51 not 15
284.
“Purnell - a trougher with rather dubious….courage and vision.”
Reminded me a lot of David Owen. A politician who had a view of the universe in which his own role and importance was magnified beyond reality by a factor approaching six figures. And the ability to speak endlessly (for himself or Bliar) without saying anything at all.
313. as Gordon strengthens his grip on the Labour Party.
We’ll keep the red flag flying high
Coz Gordon Brown will never
liedie….All we need now is for Darling to step down because Gordon won’t let him write his own budget and the Labour chaos will be complete.
320, at least he had some cullions, which is more than Bumfluff Milipede has.
Feb 74:
Newcastle Central MP Edward Short is still alive - he’s 97 years of age.
Sun / Yougov detail:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-Results-18.02.pdf
jsfl - your man with a mouse!
Initialy HYS response to the ’senior’ economists is mostly negative:
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&forumID=7521&edition=1&ttl=20100219104452&#paginator
Another of the 60 economists getting airtime on the BBC. “Geriatric Keynsian dinosaur backs socialist spend and debt strategy”. Is this news?
“The South East of England, the Gin & Martini belt of England”. Great line from the 74 election.
Labour’s left wing rejoices
http://www.bobpiper.co.uk/2010/02/good_bloody_riddance.php
174. runnymede: The retail sales data are terrible - down 1.8% on the month and December revised down to -0.2% as well
The latter part is what interests me. What was the figure before revision?
325. Labour ahead in London and on 45% in Scotland.
LDs on 15% in the North.
Lol.
Just heard some of Gordon’s speech - he’s barking mad, completely and utterly.
It’s really rather alarming.
303 Morris Dancer - Yep the top teams seem to be where we expect them but the middle order are close, and the middle order includes teams like TR that really I at least had discounted. Seems increasingly likely that we’ll just have 11 teams on the grid though. I was rather looking forwards to 13 teams lining up - I suppose we may get Stefan GP still, although hard to see them being anything other than mobile chicanes if they join in so late.
On Purnell, surely the most important question of the day is what has this latest faller done to stjohn’s racecard?
I can see why Purnell has gone - who’d want to be in Opposition with the mess they left behind being thrown in their face everyday?
Things are certainly hotting up.
333, aye, my initial thought was that 2010 would be, for Toro Rosso, finding their feet. They’ve done some decent times, but it’s like trying to eat soup with a fork deciphering the lap times.
Joe Saward is of the view that Stefan GP simply cannot join this year, but that USF1/Campos Meta may, with some different money/personnel.
What do our Labour people think of Purnell going? One of the remaining bright sparks on the Labour side of the house.
The idea of Ed Balls as Labour leader has me in a quandary. He’s so loathesome and Brown-tarnished that it can’t do other than help the Tories, but he’s SO bad that I am scared he could one day have an important job.
The voters of West Yorkshire have an important national duty.
i wonder if Purnell has encouraged some other resignations to follow later today, it would stich up Brown in a very big way.
327
“Is this news?”
BBC: “It’s News if we say it is!”
“And don’t forget it! Capiche?”
332 - That London subsample tells you all you need to know about the reliability of subsamples.
338 Certainly an interesting day to choose…
The Yougov poll, have you seen the huge difference between the weighted and unweighted sample. Look at page 3 in it also.
Purnell should have defected. Haven’t had a good one of them for a while.
New Thread
292: James M @ 10:33
“Most voters like Cameron and trust him ”
Is that really true? More voters prefer him to Brown, but I am not sure it is correct to say more than 50% of voters like Cameron and trust him.
343 I’m sure we’ll get one sooner or later. I still rather fancy the idea of Mandy switching to the LDs once the election is announced.
237: Anna: Everybody who knows me on this site also knows my opinion of Kellner and how i suspect that YouGov is being used for Labours benefit.
OGH is definite that this is not so, so do many others, but he and his wife, (now a big honcho in the EU), are Labour through and through. So, I’m sure that there is a bias to YouGov to the left, perhaps in the way the questions are framed.
286 antifrank - I don’t think you quite get this mid-life crisis malarkey. It’s something you’re meant to do on a sudden crazy, impulsive whim, not something you agonise over and analyse for months.
Purnell - one less ‘challenger for Labour Leadership’ for Mike to write about.
Yes and to complete a dark polling day for the Tories they are back below 20 per cent in Scotland with the NATS on 22%! Will this result in mass celebrations from James and others in NATLAND - I suspect they are far too sensible.
The sub sample also shows Labour on 45% (up 5 on 2005), the NATS up 4 on 2005, the Tories up 3 and the poor LIBS down a massive 11!
The lesson from all of this nonsence
1) Put not your faith in sub samples. No one seriously believes the Labour figure not for that matter that the LIBS will do quite as badly. The Tory and NAT figures are a bit more credible but if come the election as I suspect the Labour vote is nearer low 30s than low 40s then there is much still to play for in Scotland.
2) Put not any faith at all in political journos with an agenda like Hamish what’s his name. His big story of a Tory revival based on a sub sample had a one day shelve life
Can Labour lose the popular vote, but win most seats? I can’t see the nation standing for that.
I have to question my own sanity when I see the Labour vote rise by two points when we have the very worst PM in living history at the helm of this country. What has Labour done to deserve this?
Purnell gone ! Good reddance !!
339 Shortened it (by approx 8%).
319.
“307 runnymeade, you got your figures reversed 51 not 15″
Well, he’s a Tory isn’t he.
Apprently the Tories’ mis-understanding of teenage pregnancy rates a due to some CCO interns putting their ‘points’ in the wrong places.
How about a June election? After the local elections. Labour did very badly in the corresponding seats in 2006. Could make some recovery, as Local Councils (very few Labour-controlled, and most of those immovably Labour) are having to raise council taxes and/or make spending cuts.
Could be a superficial Brown Bounce in the polls after headlines of “Big Labour Gains” - which can to some extent become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Brown Bounce in Summer 2007 was completely superficial, contradicted by all real vote data at the time. No progress in council by-elections, and Ming Campbell’s Liberal Democrats slashed the Labour Majorities in the 2 super-safe Labour seats where there were byelections that summer.
The much smaller Brown Bounce2 in Autumn 2008 was real and supported by the Glenrothes byelection result.