Q. “How important is it to you personally who wins the General Election?”
March 8th, 2010
What does this say about potential turnout?
Two of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been political polling in the UK for longer than any other firm with a website that has a mine of information going back decades. Another good thing is that the firm’s non-voting intention questions are generally very well drawn up and they use the same form time and time again.
Take this table reproduced above with responses over nearly a quarter of a century to the question - “How important is it to you personally who wins the General Election?”
I’ve highlighted the pre-election polls and, as can be seen, the level of importance increases as we get closer to the date. And notice, too, how the latest figure from January 2010 is already ahead of 1997.
The Blair-Hague battle in 2001 is hardly surprising but it’s the apparent lack of interest in Tony Blair’s landslide victory four years earlier that I find most surprising.
PaddyPower and Ladbrokes
I’m on at 65 - 70% which is a fair bit higher than 2005/
Mike Smithson
.
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Good question.
I strongly suspect that turnout will be significantly up.
English folk want to see the back of Brown, and they’ll turn up and vote to make that happen.
It’s very important to me personally who does NOT win the general election.
But I have absolutely no clue on turnout. The biggest imponderable of all.
I wonder if the GOTV machines will be more effective this time round? After all, Labour will have developed and refined their postal voting scams, and the Tories will have rather ominous Ashcroft funded databases of target voters.
3 - oh yes Stuart, you can count on it I think
Fascinating stats - I think turnout will be up but not as far as I originally felt - the plague on all your houses meme isn’t going away.
The 1997 result confirms what has been said on here in the past, viz. the supposed ‘wave of enthusiasm’ that greeted Labour’s win in 1997 is a myth.
At the time, I was working abroad and remember a UK-based friend saying to me ‘It’s an election where you hope nobody wins’.
People were fed up with the Tories but certainly weren’t starry-eyed about Labour. It’s intriguing to wonder what would have happened had the very dull and old Labour John Smith still been alive.
What’s the conventional wisdom here?
That a big turnout favors Labour?
Long held that turnout will be up significantly. Unless Gordon has the election in the middle of Easter, which is looking very unlikely.
It is very interesting that respondents in 87 and 92 were far more engaged than they are even now. Back then there was far more difference between CON and LAB. Kinnock was a disaster just waiting to happen. (As opposed to Brown -> who was a disaster the Labour Party allowed to happen.) Nowadays, everybody is very much aware that CON and LAB are just two sides of the same tarnished coin.
I also note that John Major won the highest number of any PM ever in 1992, on the back of the intense engagement of ordinary voters in the outcome of that election.
The more the Hung Parliament narrative gains traction, the bigger Cameron’s majority will be.
Knox Paradox + Brown Epiphany = Labour tears before bedtime
o/t — ObamaCare in the US
“Sebelius Predicts Bill Will Pass”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
But jay Cost — who’s counting the probable votes in the House — writes “Still, I think it is far to hasty to say that this reform is inevitable.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
The contract *ObamaCare* is oscillating between 51 and 53 — after a 15 point drop 36 hours ago.
O/T:
The returning officer for Chorley was on Radio 4’s news at one o’clock today, giving reasons why she’s decided not to count the general election votes on the night.
One of her main reasons was the fact that Chorley is “quite rural.” Not as rural as Ribble Valley which has decided it can count on the night. Other much larger seats than Chorley counting on the night include Richmond (Yorks), Penrith & the Border, Devon West & Torridge, Brecon & Radnorshire, Montgomeryshire, Ludlow.
10. meant to type: “John Major won the highest number of votes of any PM ever in 1992″
4 I get the impression that all parties have lost a lot of volunteers over recent years - somehow, joining organisations and getting involved is a lot less fashionable than it used to be. I am sure that volunteers will present themselves at election time, but they may be a bit late to be of much use and might also be comparatively inexperienced. (Just a hunch.)
I think some of the comments above are projecting the author’s own feelings onto the electorate as a whole.
I would urge people, at least in their betting positions, to consider that others might have less strong feelings than you. The figures Mike posted suggest fewer people feel strongly about it than in 2005 or 1992 or 1987. Simply saying “people feel very strongly about getting rid of Brown” (or beating the moon-faced Old Etonian or whatever your prejudice is) doesn’t make it true.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/7397808/Gordon-Brown-hasnt-given-MoD-enough-cash-for-defence.html
“Gordon Brown has not given the Ministry of Defence enough money to fund the defence programme, forcing ministers to seek “cuts”, the top civil servant at the ministry has said. ”
“Sir Bill also said that a budget forced on the MoD by Mr Brown shortly after the Iraq war began had left the MoD with a “significant” financial problem that “persists to this day”.
There had been “a serious dispute” between Mr Brown’s Treasury and the MoD in 2004 about spending, Sir Bill said. The Treasury vetoed MoD attempts to use Whitehall accounting rules to allow it to spend more on new equipment. ”
Yet again Gordo’s lies come back to bite him
11- Sibelius is an interested party, to say the least. Imagine the opposite: “Sibelius predicts bill will fail.”
Both Jay Cost and Nate Silver have said it is impossible to predict either way.
Another interesting twist:
Democratic congressman Eric Massa, a Blue Dog who voted against the original House version of Obamacare, now says he was railroaded out of Congress by Pelosi/Hoyer/Emanuel in a bid to get rid of his anti-Obamacare vote. He is accused of sexual harrassment, but he claims he wouldn’t have resigned if his own party’s leadership hadn’t shoved him aside to improve their chances of passing the healthcare bill:
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/03/massa_implicate.php
With more scandals and cynical shenanigans emerging almost every day, there is a real poison eating at the heart of the Democratic Party in Washington that has nothing to do with Republicans.
Another nail in the coffin of the myth than Blair was swept to power in 1997 on a wave of enthusiasm. No he wasn’t; he was swept into power on a wave of apathy and disillusionment amongst Conservative-leaning voters.
This time around, it’s less clear. If Labour can motivate their supporters, who certainly have been apathetic and disillusioned in the last couple of years, they won’t do too badly. On the other hand, the YouGov 2% lead shock of a couple of weekends ago has certainly galvanised Conservative activists, and, I suspect, focused the minds of Conservative-leaning voters.
Against that, we have the expenses scandal, the prospect of hard times whoever wins, and both Labour and the LibDems running purely negative campaigns.
My guess remains that turnout will be up a bit; 70%+ is surely fantasy, but around 62%to 65% seems about right given this election’s specific factors and the general long-term trend of reduced turnout.
8. Philippe Magnan - “That a big turnout favors Labour?”
Yes in Scotland.
No in England.
If the turnout is very high in Scotland, then I fully expect to see the Scottish Tories back down to zero MPs. Conversely, if turnout is very weak (or very partchy), then McLetchie’s team could see a very respectable number of MPs.
19. typo: “patchy”
By the way, Nate Silver’s site 538 now seems to have become a marketing site, of the sort you may stumble on when you mistype a site address. Did the statistics genius Nate Silver fail to pay the renewal fee for his site?!?!?!
FPT Michael Branch
Osborne and the tories need to explain that it is SOME misery now, or MUCH MORE misery later.
Yes that is a hard sell, but they absolutely must counter the Labour proposition that we can just carry on spending regardless for another year or so. That path will assuredly lead to the most aggregate misery. There’s an article in the Times which mentions the fact that the ratings agencies have essentially tacitly agreed to hold off on a downgrade until after the election, but if labour win, and unless they have a Damascene conversion to competence, the speed and severity of cuts required will make Osborne look like a cuddly uncle bearing gifts in comparison.
So - on topic - it is hugely important to me and I will be sh1tting bricks on May 6th for my and my family’s sake. I am in denial about Labour possibly not losing - I am refusing to think about it seriously…
12.AndyJS, any word of the Scottish seats and when they will count? Last time someone put up the link most of the seats still had a blank box next to them?
14. Augustus Carp - “I get the impression that all parties have lost a lot of volunteers over recent years - somehow, joining organisations and getting involved is a lot less fashionable than it used to be.”
Except the Scottish National Party.
Hmmm… food for thought there. Food for thought.
21 - Works fine for me. Are you sure you aren’t, er, mistyping the site address?
There was no great enthusiasm for Labour in 1997 in most of their safe seats.
In fact, not only did they not increase their total number of votes on 1992 in many safe seats, they failed to increase it on 1987 as well.
AndyJs, “..One of her main reasons was the fact that Chorley is “quite rural.” Not as rural as Ribble Valley which has decided it can count on the night…”
Another reason she gave was the number of postal votes they expected to be handed in on the day.
Why if you are in a position to hand in a postal vote on the day should you have one in the first place?
If you have a postal vote that should be it. If you do not post it, tough. You asked for it, use it.
18 It may be unfashionable to admit it these days, but I was ‘enthusiastic’ about Labour in 97 - I stayed up all night and vividly recall being smiley when they did the Festival Hall (IIRC) rally at about 5am.
:blush:
I just wanted the Tories put out of their misery - every week there was another sex or sleaze story and I felt really sorry for Major who valiantly kept saying ‘we can win’ when it was patently obvious that they were about to be creamed.
25- Maybe there is some glitch. I am following the links provided by google from a search of “538″, though, so it isn’t my clumsy fingers!
19. An interesting (ish) question is raised there, Stuart: the effect of devolution on turnout for Westminster elections in Scotland.
It seems logical that the existence of Holyrood and devolved Scottish elections means that Scottish interest in Westminster must be consequently reduced, leading to lower turnouts at General UK Elections north of the Border.
Put it briefly: Why bother voting for Westminster when most issues that matter to you personally - health, education - are decided in Edinburgh?
I’m not saying this IS happening but it seems likely that it should, eventually, no? So we may see lower turnouts in Scotland than in England.
Of course this is not an iron rule. Strasbourg and Brussels gain ever more powers and have ever increasing say in our lives, and yet turnouts for euro elections are abysmal and getting worse.
I think turnout won’t be higher than 65%. Just a hunch.
The correlation is weak. “Importance” was much greater in 2005 than in 2001, yet turnout was only marginally up (and far below 1997 levels, even though it was rated considerably more “important”).
All my bets on this market are that turnout will be between 60 and 65% at odds of 5/2. I am very comfortable with that position. I would have seriously considered betting on that level of turnout if the odds quoted had been 5/4.
Wait for the shoe to drop.
Labour ‘visionary’ quits politics amid drugs blackmail scandal
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256249/Labour-visionary-Steven-Purcell-quits-politics-amid-drug-blackmail-scandal.html#ixzz0hb5Jqc45
When, exactly, did Jim Murphy learn about Purcell’s admission to using drugs. When, exactly, did Iain Gray hear about this?
We have the right to know.
28.
Luke 15.7:
” I tell you, there will be more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous people who need no repentance. ”
23 - i’ve heard that the Dundee seats will be counting as normal.
In regard to turnout the issue of MP’s expenses still an issue when canvassing at the weekend,some say they may abstain this time.
“My guess remains that turnout will be up a bit; 70%+ is surely fantasy, but around 62%to 65% seems about right given this election’s specific factors and the general long-term trend of reduced turnout.”
Richard, I think that you are being a wee bit Conservative there. Back in 2005 with the anti Blair/Iraq mood, but also an as you were ‘vote Blair get Brown’ theme we managed over 60% turnout. This time it’s a change GE, dire economy, Afghanistan and Brown now in charge.
Throw in the almost endless media narrative of a Hung Parliament since before Christmas, the public are certainly getting that message. I think that turnout will be at least 65-70%, and even higher if the GE campaign ignites the electorate. Contentment breeds apathy, anger and disillusionment motivates voters much more. You will also have quite a few voters who might be minded to vote for their team in they perceive this election to be close.
Blair’s huge poll leads back in 1997 were a big indication that this was a nailed on Labour victory.
Hmmm
I was reminded of how loathed the Tories still are last night at the O2 Arena when Lily Allen dedicated her song “F**k you” to “Mr David Cameron” — a song normally dedicated to the BNP.
I thought you Tories had won the the Youff vote.
rest here.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23812960-samantha-cameron-will-vote-tory–but-many-like-her-might-not.do
38: Lily Allen is well known outspoken labourite luvvy.
34 - Out of interest, which do you regard as more important, finding out when Jim Murphy and Iain Gray learned about Steven Purcell’s admission of using drugs or finding out when David Cameron and William Hague learned about Lord Ashcroft’s tax status?
Incidentally, you always know when a politician is in real trouble: the newspapers stop printing their Christian names.
30. seanT
We will have the answer soon enough, with a UK GE just round the corner, and then the next Scottish GE next May.
I suspect that turnout will be high next May. It is going to be a crunch election. I note that Iain Gray has been pretty much invisible for months now, which is unprecedented for the leader of the opposition. I just wonder whether John Smith House are planning to parachute him into East Lothian when Anne Moffat gets the boot, so that they can get him the heck out of Holyrood, where he is getting eaten alive by Salmond. It is almost painful to watch sometimes.
35
Ashcroft 14.8:
“Pay ye not taxes, for that shall be thy patriotic action for change”.
36.Marcia, thanks. Been disappointed about the lack of urgency being displayed by some constituencies with regard announcing this info. I wonder if cost will come into it, and we see many more next day counts due to very tight budgets and the added costs of the severe weather?
35 GOHF
‘Mr Brown was an admirer of Purcell’s’
They perhaps have a lot in common.
38. Poor old Lily - maybe sales of her John Barnes-esque tribute albums have dropped said Cam pointed out the obvious that the lyrics weren’t suitable for a 6yr old - she’s not really disproved his point there has she ?
Expenses MP Jim Devine ‘too sick for court’, says doctor
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2010/03/07/expenses-mp-jim-devine-too-sick-for-court-says-doctor-86908-22091845/
Faulty memory? Very persuasive.
The problem for John Smith House is that Devine (Robin Cook’s election agent for many years) knows where a lot of the bodies are buried.
If he (ahem) “regains” his memory, will he sing like a canary?
43 - one of the reasons being given by some councils for a next day count is the verification of the postal votes and the time it would take to verify them after the close of poll. Surely these can be verified on the day received (but not counted) as most will arrive before polling day.
46 It is a very amusing song though - I couldn’t believe my ears when I first heard it - I assumed it was a very clever spoof!
27 - couldn’t agree more. I believe returning officers are just being jobsworths on this. They love throwing their weight around and what better way than to make the fifth biggest economy in the world have to wait an additional 12 hours to find out who’s going to be in charge, despite the fact that we live in a 24 hour news channel situation.
23 - most of the Scottish seats are undecided because they’re having some sort of conference to decide what to do, unlike in England and Wales where individual returning officers are making the decisions.
However, all the Glasgow seats have decided to count on the night. So are the North Lanarkshire constituencies - Coatbridge, Airdrie, Cumbernauld, Motherwell. Angus is also counting on the night.
6 “I think turnout will be up but not as far as I originally felt - the plague on all your houses meme isn’t going away.”
Agree entirely, Plato. The way that the media have spun “man pays no more tax than he is required to pay” into at best “they are all as bad as each other” and at worst “election bought with dodgy cash” will not have helped. Which, er, was the intention… Although the Ashcroft dirty bomb had to be detonated prematurely by Labour because the Electoral Commission report was coming out - it was going to be a major part of Labour’s campaign - it has still had some impact. Labour still intends to play the “plague on all their houses” card to keep turnout down.
Let’s face it, Labour has nothing else. When did anyone last come on here voicing a positive reason to vote Labour? When did anyone appear in the media making the case? Years back….
30 - “Why bother voting for Westminster when most issues that matter to you personally - health, education - are decided in Edinburgh?”
I would guess that for Unionist and Nationalist alike the answer is because the purse strings are held by the UK government.
And the fact that potential MPs and MSPs from all parties are not averse to pretending they have powers in the areas they don’t have. Potential Lib Dem MP’s will issue campaign literature promising to do something about dog poo, Tories will do likewise about hooligans etc etc.
Looking at 2001 we can certainly see why William Hagues apparent withdrawl from the media may help Conservative turnout.
36.Marcia, is this in the Dundee area where its a straight fight with Labour in Westminster vs the SNP in Holyrood, or wider afield?
47. Does he have the same lawyers as Ernest Saunders or perhaps Megrahi?
49. Are we talking about the Anfield rap or Ms Allens wigga whinings ?
50.AndyJS, thanks very much for that info.
55
Lord Ashcroft’s, I believe.
40. antifrank
The former.
I must admit that all this Ashcroft stuff goes right over my head.
Has the bloke done anything illigal? AFAIAA: nope.
Do the other parties have non-dom donors? AFAIAA: yepp.
Are the Labour Party a bunch of hypocritical scuzz? Oh yes. Sans doute.
Are the trade unions a bigger corrupting feature on UK politics? Oh yes indeedy.
Now, when are we going to get the Purcell truth out of Skeletor and his mute dogsbody?
Afternoon all
I’m not sure I wholly agree with OGH - the 2005 response is 80% in the “Important” category which compares well with the 1987 and 1992 figures.
As far as 1997 is concerned, once again Runnymede has got it wrong. There was a “wave of enthausiasm” among the non-Conservative electorate but the Conservatives had virtually given up by April 97.
I don’t think Labour now are in quite the same position as the Tories were then. Blair convinced millions of previously non-Labour voters that the Labour Party was a non-socialist party of the centre left and this meant not only that people could be comfortable with voting Labour but they could also be comfortable about not voting at all as the prospect of a Labour Government did not invoke the same nightmare response as it did in 1992 and does now.
There remains a residual undercurrent of fear and anxiety among non-Tory voters as to what a Conservative Government would be like and what it would do.
47 - “Devine (Robin Cook’s election agent for many years) knows where a lot of the bodies are buried.”
Did poor old Robin have more than one body then? Freaky.
34 Hmm:
It emerged yesterday that Purcell, who was in a charge of a £2.4 billion budget, was asked if he knew of any photograph or video in connection with his drug use that could be used to blackmail him.
…
After the meeting in May last year, he is said to have admitted to senior council officials that had misused drugs but was determined to change his lifestyle.
He remained council leader, a post he has held since 2005, for another ten months until stepping down as leader last Tuesday and quitting as a councillor on Friday.
I look forward to the Guardian running 10 front-pages in a row on the scandal of the drug-abuser with some colourful friends in charge of spending £2.4 billion of taxpayers’ money. No doubt there will be screaming headlines about When did Brown know?. They might also like to publish Five Questions Labour Must Answer about the whole affair, including who amongst Purcell’s friends made donations to the party.
I might be disappointed, however.
48.Marcia, thanks again to for this info. Just hoping that most seats will decide to count on the night, and I agree with you about the postal votes.
From these stats it seems to suggest a higher turnout actually seems to favor the Tories. 1987 85% thought it was important, 1992 86% of people thought it was important to vote. 1997 and 2001 less than 70% thought it was important to vote. In 2005 80% thought it was important to vote and the Tories were only 3% behind Labour then. This year I think the Tories will again boost the voting tally.
46. Still uncertain as to whether the aforemention Ms Allen is the same Ms Allen who ‘entertains’ us on here..
Spookily, from post 38:
last night: Lily Allen @ O2 arena
last night: No Lily Allen posts on here (that I can remember)..
hmmmmm.. what more evidence do we need…
Interesting to see if there is any correlation at all with the importance figures versus the actual turnout of that election.
Year -> import % vs turnout %
1987 -> 75.3 vs 85
1992 -> 77.7 vs 86
1997 -> 71.4 vs 69
2001 -> 59.4 vs 66
2005 -> 61.6 vs 80
Not enough samples to see if there is any significance behind these numbers, but just for fun it looks like there is… Could turnout be ~70%?
60. “There remains a residual undercurrent of fear and anxiety among non-Tory voters as to what a Conservative Government would be like and what it would do.”
I think that might be a slight understatement. Is there such a thing as an ‘overcurrent’?
“There remains a residual undercurrent of fear and anxiety among non-Tory voters as to what a Conservative Government would be like and what it would do.”
This is true I think. It is the main challenege for the tory campaign.
(That and remorselessly banging on and on about just how CRAP Brown is and they should win easily…)
54 - it isn’t huge numbers but that feeling is thoughout the seat but a little more of it in the more ‘middle class’ voting areas.
66
turnout last time wasn’t 80% surely???
Two interesting observations about those figures:
1. The interest factor appears to ramp up quickly in the last few weeks (other than in 1997). So for 40% at very important in January 2010 suggests this time could exceed the 1992 peak (given that it was at 36 in March in 1992).
2. The lowest ‘very important’ figures appear to be those elections where Labour are nailed on certainties to win. This could point to disengagement amongst Conservatives that may unwind this time.
70. I think the importance/turnout figures are listed the reverse way round.
SD has BBC Scotland covered the Purcell story on tv or radio, their BBC Scottish Politics website today does seem to be rather ‘thin’.
It seems very odd that a man who was meeting Brown at a party function within the last 14 days has gone to ground so quickly. Given thde size of the Glasgow Council budget relative to other Scottish cities the lack of ‘interest’ in the story seems ’surprising’.
67
We all know what it would do - slash public services and look after its wealthy friends and supporters. That is what Tory government is for.
70
Correct - it should read Turnout % vs Import
oops
66. I think the turnout/ important figures are the wrong way round surely.
‘Pressure mounts on Glasgow Council to open up on Steven Purcell departure’
http://www.scotsman.com/news/Pressure-mounts-on-Glasgow-Council.6132545.jp
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2882520/Cover-up-on-Steven-Purcell-drugs-claims.html
What a hostage to fortune! That line from John Smith House - “the allegations concerning Mr Purcell were unknown until the events of this week unfolded” - is a ticking time bomb.
Will it detonate before polling day?
74: In which case the point of Labour is to piss money up the wall and bankrupt the country.
The government are criticised today by accountingweb under the leader “why are we waiting” for playing political games with the date of budget. They call for a fixed timetable for both the budget and finance bill.
re: Ratings Agency threats, perhaps Gordon would “relish” a fight with the nasty currency speculators who try to wreck his economic miracle
Story of concern to handful of people in Glasgow area fails to dominate national media. Typical bias!
I’m not sure people realise just how important this election is. I watch with a sinking heart the stranglehold Labour have now got on the MSM. SKY cutting the link when david Cameron was speaking at the Welsh Party Conference has happened a couple of times before and has now gone beyond coincidence. This is what the tories are up against.
I have said for a while DC is going to get stitched up during the Leaders debates and this is confirmed now by the anti-tory comments from Nick Clegg over the weekend. I strongly suspect a ‘deal’ has been done and DC will be well and truly ambushed by the two of them.
As all of the conspiracy theorists appear to be under sedation at the moment, I’ll hop into their shoes and remind everyone that the reason some seats won’t be counting until Friday is that it will take the overnight results to identify how many marginals will need a “boost” to the number of postal votes to ensure that they stay in the red column, not the blue.
Some people round here believe this to be true.
dr spyn March 8th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
sadly the media up here have been very guarded as some of the journalist up here are too close to Labour
Joan Macalpine’s articles deserve a wider audience
http://joanmcalpine.typepad.com/
56 Oh - you’ve stumped me with a popular culture question
I just meant the song that was used to accompany the MPs who fiddled their expenses…!
Unfortunately I can’t find it on YouTube
77.
Typical new Labour semantics..
“The Scottish Labour Party has never investigated”
Just like there was no Gus O’Donnel “investigation” into Brown’s bullying.
I’m sure these matters were discussed at half-time over a pie at Celtic Park - but an “investigation” !? Perish the thought..
67. The present government is making cut’s of 10% across the board. 270,000 civil servant are on a 48 hour strike. There have been more rich oligos living in Britain under Labour tax free than from any other government. I think you look at the Labour party of 1945 and somehow think the Labour party of today is the same. Well it’s not.
17 — re the Massa Affair
There is apparently a lot of arm-twisting by Nancy over ObamaCare. She seems ruthless. That’s why, also, I’m inclined to think the Bill will pass.
I’m betting on it; but I won’t advice anybody to do so.
Why do women vote differently from men?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8555358.stm
77. It was interesting that Anne McLaughlin said on her blog that she’d heard rumours over the years about what was going on. If an SNP activist (later MSP) had heard of it, it does stretch credibility to suggest the Labour hierarchy were completely clueless, even if they didn’t know the exact details.
The Chorley returning officer was asked whether many postal votes are handed in at the last minute. She said they were in the Euro elections, but I’m not sure that’s a very good comparison for a general election.
People are more likely make sure their postal vote is handed in earlier for a general election since it’s a million times more important and they won’t want to risk having it excluded for arriving late.
I can imagine quite a lot of people almost forgetting to hand in their postal votes for the Euro elections and then having to do it at the last minute since the Euro elections are not exactly very important to most people.
82 - Does anybody watch Sky news anyway?
66
Working out the correlation between the two sets of figures gives a value of 0.38 - a slight positive correlation..
13 Stuart
I’ve aired this before….
My highly placed former ’senior’ backbencher friend when asked about the Prime Ministers he’d known [which goes way back] responded that by far and above the most decent person, and kindest, was John Major - by a country mile.
Perhaps the British people instinctively knew that, and so that is why he remains vote-winning champion. On that basis perhaps turn-out might be lower than the predictions made here, after all what a sad bunch of inept idiots the current party leaders appear.
A fascinating description of Labour’s new proposed standards for prohibited religious descrimination:
“VEGANS and teetotallers are to be given the same protection against discrimination as religious groups, under legislation championed by Harriet Harman, the equalities minister. Members of cults and “new religions” such as Scientology, whose supporters include the film stars Tom Cruise and John Travolta, would also be offered protection, as would atheists. A code of practice explaining the legal implications of the equality bill states that religions need not be mainstream or well known for their adherents to gain protection. “A belief need not include faith or worship of a god or gods, but must affect how a person lives their life or perceives the world.”
The legislation also covers “any religious belief or philosophical belief” and even “a lack of belief”.
Philosophical beliefs to be protected could include humanism and pacifism, but a spokesman for Harman said scientific or political beliefs such as Marxism and fascism would not be covered. The commission added that the recently founded International Church of Jediism, with 500,000 followers worldwide who base their philosophy on the Star Wars films, would not qualify. Beliefs had to be heartfelt.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052580.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
So the bill protects “any religious belief or philosophical belief” and even “a lack of belief”, but not Marxism or fascism. Can anyone provide a logical, coherent explanation for why this would be the case? Why is every hue of nutjob and crank protected from discrimination except for Marxists and fascists? Why such a discriminatory anti-discrimination bill?
Just did a VI poll for ARPO with a lot of questions about newspaper readership.
I actually don’t think turnout will do much advancement compared with the last GE. The stench of the expenses scandal lingers on for many people and one of the interesting questions in the ST/YouGov had a response of 72% agreeing to all the parties are as bad as each other. Not good for politics in this country I would have thought.
Anyways, have any of the pollsters asked about positive/negative voting, e.g.:
You said you would vote for X. Is that a positive endorsement or because you want to stop another party?
Which party do you want to stop?
This could then be broken down to see how many Lab votes are anti-Tory or LibDem, LibDem votes are anti-Labour, anti-Tory and how many many Tory votes are anti-Labour or LibDem and so on in Wales/Scotland. I suspect you would have to run a larger sample, but it would be useful in getting a feel for the lie of the land.
85. Ms Allen is the greatest white rapper since the Anfield rap which featured the Liverpool Soccer team - released to co-incide with the 1988 FA Cup final.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kcy3gwwxat4
90 - I didn’t think that I’d ever see the day when you would suggest that the Labour hierarchy might not be completely clueless.
36/marcia:
Are there any newspaper reports, etc, confirming that Dundee will be counting on the night? I’d be interested to see them so I can add those 2 seats to my list. Thanks.
MRUK cello have now published the datasheets from their poll for the Sunday Times Scotland (there is no voting intention question, so don’t get too excited):
http://www.cellomruk.co.uk/scotomnifeb10.html
(links to 2 tables - unweighted and weighted - are at the foot of the page)
o/t - Huge moves in the betting for next Irish President as independent Senator David Norris has moved from 20/1 to 8/1 to 9/2 following confirmation of his well-trailed intention to seek the nomination. He is now second favourite. A big problem will be getting a nomination as current rules probably require the backing of a big party or a number of small parties to get on the ballot paper. He is a member of the Labour party though and Labour backed the successful independent candidature of Mary Robinson previously and may see the electoral advantage in pulling that trick again. I’m not sure but he would probably be one of the first openly gay heads of state if elected.
95. “So the bill protects “any religious belief or philosophical belief” and even “a lack of belief”, but not Marxism or fascism. Can anyone provide a logical, coherent explanation for why this would be the case? Why is every hue of nutjob and crank protected from discrimination except for Marxists and fascists? Why such a discriminatory anti-discrimination bill?”
Methinks S&S doth protest too much, and since it’s overwhelmingly unlikely that Marxism is the personal area of concern here…
88- The Dems are indeed fortunate, for once, that the place where Obamacare has it’s toughest test (i.e., the House) is the place where they have their most effective legislative leader (i.e., Pelosi). If Harry Reid ran the House, Obamacare wouldn’t have a chance. Instead, it very well could pass because of Pelosi’s ruthless effectiveness in extracting votes from unwilling members.
77 Stuart - I would recommend our SNP friends to have a good read of the Council’s Code of Conduct for both councillors and council officials
82
I’ve heard it on good authority that Sky, the so-called BBC and ITV plan to flash subliminal images of a chimpanzee clutching a sack of £50 notes when Cameron is speaking in the debates. Can anyone else confirm this as it certainly has the ring of truth given the blatant bias and unceasing criticism that the so-called media fling at the Tories. Disgraceful!
21 — Stars,
Nate’s site is working just fine; may I suggest another expresso?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
I just logged into it and saw this:
New Feature: UK Election Backgrounders
The next few topics to be discussed in the next 8 weeks:
1. Boundary systems in the UK and US: Similarities, differences and why it matters in this elections.
2. Independent voters in the UK election: Whichever party wins this year’s UK general elections will likely have swing voters to thank for it. … In the 2010 UK General, how do these voters break down?
3. The “Built-In Labour Bias”: Boundary commissions, tactical voting, or mythology? We will pick apart which elements are relevant and which political rhetoric in a 2010 context.
4. Projecting the outcome of the election: With reputable pollsters and smart poll aggregators, why is there so much question about the outcome of the election? We will examine what is needed to effectively project individual constituencies, along with the national party share numbers.
93.
Shame we only have 4 sets of figures to determine if this correlation holds or is just coincidence.
bribrad, will you require much training in holding the sack?
99 - this is the view of our election agent who happens to the Leader of the City Council. Once I see something in print I will let you know asap.
Very interesting article in the Guardian again on the fallout from the Ashcroft affair. They show the take of some of the right-wing commentators in the Sundays. By far the most peceptive is Matthew Dancona
“I aqgree with those who say that the specifics of the Ashcroft case will be quickly forgotten. But the damage is already done. The process is incremental: the Deripaska affair and George Osborne’s yacht-fondling, Zac Goldsmith’s non-dom status, the Joanne Cash episode, and Sir Nicholas Winterton’s declaration that standard-class rail passengers are “a totally different type of people”. Each story does a little more to confirm the voters’ residual fear that the Tory party is a political front for a gang of people who want to govern so they can do what the hell they like”.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/07/tebbit-lord-ashcroft-tax-status
To compare our democracy with theirs: turnout in Iraq was 62%.
106. What ever happened to …
http://sixhundredandfifty.blogspot.com/
??
Latest YouGov Scottish subsample
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 37% (-2)
SNP 31% (+13)
Con 14% (-2)
LD 14% (-9)
BNP 2% (+2)
Grn 1% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (+1)
oth 1%
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ST-results_05-March2010.pdf
What I want to know is this: did Christina sense this type of result was on the way, via her super-sensitive political antennae?
After all, last time the Scottish Tories had a good sub-sample Christina waxed lyrical about how she felt it was about right, cos she had sensed it coming.
The woman is a seer I tells you.
38
In other news the Pope has declared that he is indeed a Catholic.
One of my fervent wishes is that if and when the Tories do win the election, Ms Allen is one of those ’stars’ who decides to leave Britain in a huff for the next few years. Or better still permanently.
106- Then my computer must be possessed by the patron demon of unwelcome marketing campaigns! I will try his site again later, but to paraphrase Silver on Obamacare from about a week ago, ‘his head tells him it will pass, but his gut tells him it won’t.’
108 don
No, I’m booked to “drop the shoe” on his head. Sandalous!
105 bribrad March 8th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
As someone who tends to read rather than post, yours I have noticed since you started posting on this site are just stupid at times. Please engage in debate proper. How old are you?
OT: No comment needed.
http://www.metro.co.uk/weird/808171-mans-penis-freed-from-metal-pipe-with-industrial-grinder
106. Quite an amusing comment from an American on that article -
“From what I’ve heard of David Cameron he seems to be the Martha Coakley of the UK, apparently he was ahead by like 15 points a few weeks ago and now the race is a statistical dead heat. If he can’t win an election in this kind of tough economy for the incumbent, than he should be ashamed of himself”
Does Dave do shame?
117 - To be fair the original post deserved that kind of treatment but generally, yes, bribrad is fairly tiresome (though no more so than the far more numerous Tory equivalents).
82 “I’m not sure people realise just how important this election is. I watch with a sinking heart the stranglehold Labour have now got on the MSM. SKY cutting the link when david Cameron was speaking at the Welsh Party Conference has happened a couple of times before and has now gone beyond coincidence. This is what the tories are up against.
I have said for a while DC is going to get stitched up during the Leaders debates and this is confirmed now by the anti-tory comments from Nick Clegg over the weekend. I strongly suspect a ‘deal’ has been done and DC will be well and truly ambushed by the two of them.”
I think this is called getting your excuses in early.
110.
“Each story does a little more to confirm the voters’ residual fear that the Tory party is a political front for a gang of people who want to govern so they can do what the hell they like”.
Like Mr Dromey getting a juicy seat ?
Like Sarah Brown swimming in Lord Paul’s pool ?
Like Dunwoody Jnr getting a juicy seat (har har) ?
Like Pauline Prescott getting a limo 100 yards
Like Luciana Berger getting Wavertree ?
Like Cherie Blair existing ?
Like the Guardian getting all the govt job ads and not paying Uk tax ?
The hypocrisy of the left stinks.
110
Roger
Each story does a little more to confirm the voters’ residual fear that the Tory party is a political front for a gang of people who want to govern so they can do what the hell they like”.
I view all parties the same. They are all thieves, liars and serial promise breakers.
Anyone voted on the last Referendum in Europe?: Nope.
Bunch of liars..
Turnout is likely to be down… at least among my neighbours. The only good MP is the one in jail… (none at present)
118 - It’s an old story, but it still brings tears to the eyes. I particularly like the closing comment:
“Watch manager Greg Garrett from the Redbridge fire station told the Southampton daily Echo: ‘I’ve only come across this type of thing three or four times in my 17 years as a firefighter. It’s not a daily occurrence.’ ”
It’s good to know that there is no problem that our firefighters haven’t come across before.
117
6
90. James Kelly
“it does stretch credibility to suggest the Labour hierarchy were completely clueless”
I don’t think it stretches credibility at all. They have form on being completely clueless.
117.
Ignore the troll.
“‘his head tells him it will pass, but his gut tells him it won’t.’”
That’s exactly how I felt about “Hurt Locker” to win best pix; my guts were screaming “Avatar”, but cold hard logics was strongly dictating “Hurt Locker”. I should have stick with my head. As does Silver here, methinks.
120 Thanks Neil
sorry annoyed you other day. Still, you could have put “not at all” instead of “rather”.
121. A less forgiving way of putting it would be ‘paranoia’.
The Tories have had three years of unrelenting positive noises from all sections of the media. The real story is how fragile they have seemed when put under marginal pressure.
69.Marcia, is the Labour vote soft there, or there signs that its hardened up in line with the recent polls? Are the SNP hoping this apathy in the area’s you mentioned dissipates as the GE draws near, they must be hoping to pick up the anti Labour vote in your patch?
71.marbles, good points, and I must admit that is along the lines of my own thoughts on this.
For those betting against Cameron
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:c4d9b9cc-1ebe-4ec3-ad9e-6c2cff7fa496
128 You are Zorro and I claim my 5 pesos
121
“The Tories have had three years of unrelenting positive noises from all sections of the media.”
You must be living on a different planet than I do then.
This puts the British turnout into perspective
Iraq election turnout 62%, officials say
134 Yes - it’s called Earth chucky.
Mike, the table on the previous article is misleading because it excludes the context of the NET RATINGS and the the historical importance of the absolute ratings in predicting election outcomes.
If we include the Yougov March net ratings we have :
Leader—“Well”—–Net Rating
Brown 36% -22%
Cameron 48% +4%
The most important rating is the absolute : Brown 36% versus Cameron 50%. Cameron has a 14% lead.
Every opposition leader in the post-war period with such a big and decisive advantage in the absolute rating has won the subsequent election.
This indicates that Cameron is likely to win a small overall majority, despite the narrowing of polls.
Also the fact that Brown’s ratings has got worse in the last month - a clear turning point. Brown has gone back into decline despite having a very, very low rating to begin with. The Labour government is also on -42% - certainly ominous for the electoral chancres.
The key for a big Conservative victory is getting people already wanting change, angry enough to turn out to vote.
There is strong evidence that if the Conservatives had done this much earlier they would have made big gains in 2001, and easily won the 2005 general election (Labour actually lost the popular vote in England in 2005 - getting more seats only because of the huge bias in the electoral system).
So the question is - how effective are the Conservatives at motivating a huge majority of the people to act on their negative experiences, thoughts and and feelings of the Labour government.
Oppositions don’t win, governments lose. The Conservatives need to concentrate on Labour’s record in government, what they have done wrong and why this is important enough for people to take action.
The Conservatives need to create a positive sense of hope that things can get better, that they will get things done, and that they will obey the wishes of the people (something that authoritarian and nasty Labour clearly has not done).
If you haven’t been following this - some are very amusing
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/whats-my-news.html
I don’t see there being much change in turnout from the last election. On the plus side, it is a more important election than 2005 and it also looks like being closer in the polls.
Against this, however, is the expenses scandal and the growing general feeling that they are all as bad as each other. This sentiment is perpetuated by the Ashcroft affair, which tarnishes all Parties while at the same time being something of a turn-off for the average voter because it is either too complicated to understand, or when they do take the trouble to try and understand it, it turns out to be a big non-story.. although the media banging on and on about it would lead them to think otherwise.
The campaigns being run by all the major Parties are largely negative, which again reinforces the meme that they are all as bad as each other.
Another factor which might be significant is that the voters know that whoever gets in, they are likely to be worse off both financially and due to service cuts. Taking part in the voting process means that the voter has to take responsibility for the outcome. The trend cultivated over the past 13 years is for people not to take responsibility for their actions.(Have you had an accident that wasn’t your fault? Increased nanny state.)
Therefore, I think there will be a section of the electorate that will not vote, simply because they do not want any responsibility for the harsh measures that will inevitably have to come.
I am guessing 61-62%, but would not be surprised if it fell below 60%.
Another factor in favour of a low turnout is that the voters know that wh
The Blair-Hague battle in 2001 is hardly surprising but it’s the apparent lack of interest in Tony Blair’s landslide victory four years earlier that I find most surprising.
WHY?
Tony Blair had less votes than John Major did in 1992, and the Tory voters just did not turn up in 1997.
I think this time with a good chance of Cameron winning Tories will come out in their numbers to beat Brown, and Labour.
In 1997 you could drive for miles before seeing a Tory Poster in a window, and if 50% of these voters turn out to vote all is lost for the Labour party.
110 it seems a much more apt description of new labour
When it comes to Deripaska - who was the regular guest on the yacht and had close dealings with Deripaska and JR and who was it who spent only a few minutes there and did nothing of interest other than say hello during his holiday.
128- I would suggest that Pelosi can find the votes. In circumstances like this, party leadership usually manages to flip even announced nay votes, even if those members are screwed because of it. It happened with Bill Clinton’s supposedly doomed tax hike in 1993 and it will could very well be the same story here.
On a related note, Eric Massa is threatening to rescind his announced resignation, which he would probably have until 5 PM today to do. If he actually does it, it would be a huge nightmare for the Dems.
Mike, the table on the previous article is misleading because it excludes the context of the NET RATINGS and the the historical importance of the absolute ratings in predicting election outcomes.
If we include the Yougov March net ratings we have :
Leader—“Well”–Net Rating
Brown 36% -22%
Cameron 48% +4%
The most important rating is the absolute : Brown 36% versus Cameron 50%. Cameron has a 14% lead.
Every opposition leader in the post-war period with such a big and decisive advantage in the absolute rating has won the subsequent election.
This indicates that Cameron is likely to win a small overall majority, despite the narrowing of polls.
Also the fact that Brown’s rating has got worse in the last month is a clear turning point. Brown has gone back into decline despite having a very, very low rating to begin with. The Labour government is also on -42% - certainly ominous for their electoral chances.
The key for a big Conservative victory is getting people already wanting change, angry enough to turn out to vote.
There is strong evidence that if the Conservatives had done this much earlier they would have made big gains in 2001, and easily won the 2005 general election (Labour actually lost the popular vote in England in 2005 - getting more seats only because of the huge bias in the electoral system).
So the question is - how effective are the Conservatives at motivating a huge majority of the people to act on their negative experiences, thoughts and and feelings of the Labour government.
Oppositions don’t win, governments lose. The Conservatives need to concentrate on Labour’s record in government, what they have done wrong and why this is important enough for people to take action.
The Conservatives need to create a positive sense of hope that things can get better, that they will get things done, and that they will obey the wishes of the people (something that authoritarian and nasty Labour clearly has not done).
139. Ingore the last line!
Ignore the lot of it if you want!
132 - Ms. Dorries: “On this day, International womens day, I would like to see a ban on the word ‘feminist’ period”
Err, does she think before she writes?
is that what the Tories want to fill the media gap while Cameron and Hague hide from interviews?
135 tim - Yes, they haven’t got Mandelson and Alistair Campbell.
132. From the build-up you gave, I thought there was going to be something more substantial than “our Dave’s got pluck”. I doubt if that will shift the markets much.
‘Plan to break up UK an act of unpardonable folly, says Bruce’
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1635967?UserKey=#ixzz0hbKegqLz
Bookies’ best prices - Gordon (incumbent: Malcolm Bruce, Lib Dem maj over Lab = 11,026)
LD 2/7 (Lad, PP, WH)
SNP 11/4 (Bet365)
Con 25/1 (Bet365)
Lab 80/1 (Bet365)
I think the media in general like a close race as it gains a larger audience than such and such will win the election easily. Often i have noticed papers going against their natural leanings and having headlines against the party they most align to. I think it is just about selling papers more than being biased against any particular party.
127
Marbles. Found them yet?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7054128.ece
“The SAS Colonel in charge of an operation which claimed the life of the first female British soldier to die in Afghanistan was denied access to safer vehicles, an inquest heard today.
The Colonel relayed his concerns about the lack of equipment both to his chain of command in Afghanistan and procurement officials in the UK. “
130 I don’t think they’ve had that easy a ride.
They’ve had to face considerable hostility from a lot of Right Wing journalists, together with gushing tributes to Brown during his Honeymoon.
Urgh - just listening to Peter Chapman trial - what a hoon - 35 yrs is the right sentence.
107.
Its a shame..
Did a trend line for the data, and given the above 70% importance value, it predicted a turnout of 60% (ish)
Obviously given the small amount of data, this is pretty spurious
152 - but to counter that there’s been a lot of puff pieces, and praise from papers like the Gaurdian which is exactly what Cameron wanted to shift centre votes. Raging and ranting from far-right journos was a calculated risk, but done on the basis that right-wing voters had nowhere to go.
The media gave the Tories a very easy ride last year, and sadly for them they did not use that time to firm up their policies and defuse issues such as Ashcroft and the Europe Referendum.
I am however looking forward to the howling complaints about media bias that will start at 8.01 pm tonight.
131 - yes, no and yes to your questions.
146 - Richard.
Have you noticed how turnout in Iraq has fallen since George Galloway left?
151. If the Tories think they’ve have had a tough ride, I’d like to see how they’d cope with trying to win an election with a major tabloid using this as a front-page headline on polling day -
“If you vote Tory today you put Britain’s head in the noose”
156. tim your info is wrong - Panorama doesnt start until 8.30 pm
159: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone
Like that you mean…he still won.
Grayling to be replaced with Gove?
Asked on Sky News why Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary, had been guaranteed a job, when he had not, Mr Grayling insisted that the defence post was an important one, before looking embarrassed when it was pointed out that the Home Office was one of the great offices of state
Any inert object would do really.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/03/home-secretary-shadow-grayling
161. The Guardian can be described as many things, but ‘major tabloid’ is not one of them. And, no, that is nowhere near as extreme as the ‘noose’ frontpage.
160. Is Panorama still on? I thought it had gone the same way as Nationwide and Tomorrow’s World.
163.
This is still the best one
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ThhguC97EdA/SS7B-PyulMI/AAAAAAAAAQE/lWSGQ6AfjT8/s400/kinnock.jpg
164. Worth watching tonight - NHS cover up special
164. “I thought it had gone the same way as Nationwide and Tomorrow’s World.”
It has, but not in the way you mean. It’s now presented by Jeremy Vine, whose literal sole function is to say “I’m Jeremy Vine, and THIS…is Panorama”.
159 I imagine the Mirror will publish similar during the campaign.
It’s probably more accurate to say the press (on both sides) have been pretty lukewarm towards the Conservatives.
@161: I’m always astonished by the amount of mealy-mouthed, self righteous inverted snobbery middle class minor celebs can pour forth on these occasions. Where’s Arabella Weir living these days?
Except for David Mitchell’s comment, which is funny.
162 ‘Any inert object would do really.’
Are you volunteering tim?
Could we have Tomorrow’s World back? Why was it taken off air?
Well, the events of the past few days have certainly been a game changer. First, the Ashcroft business has fizzled out. More importantly, we had Brown’s dissembling to Chilcot followed by the smooth and eloquent Dr Fox tearing him a new one over his sham visit to Iraq. Most importantly however is the news that Gordon and Ed have crushed dissent within the Treasury with their iron fists - leaving Byrne humiliated and Darling’s reputation for fiscal rectitude in tatters! Labour have let this election slip.
34. Sorry I thought it was OK for politicians not to answer questions about taking drugs? I’m sure that is what Mr Cameron said.
85. MPs and popular culture.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLvFqwhglZY
David Mellor now on LBC Radio standing in for James Whale and discussing Ashcroft. Another treacherous bastard - he is one of the reasons the conservatives spent thirteen years in opposition.
Steven Purcell have we seen a posting on here from the Red Gang?
Tim where are you?
152 I have n’t made the comparison with other elections but it seems quite remarkable how little support the most popular party, at least according to the polls, does have in the media.
On postal votes since they were made available on demand a lot of people have them who do n’t really need them so I suspect it arrives in the post when they have n’t even been away and gets forgotten about until it’s too late to return it by post.
157.Marcia, thanks. Labour really appear to have lost ground in your home patch.
161. Those quotes are great, what a bunch of chumps.
171.
“Did we predict mobile phones?”
“No”
“What about the i-Pod”
“No”
“Oh, bugger. We might as well give up then!”
173 - Dr Fox tearing him a new one over his sham visit to Iraq.
Was he canvassing or are you confused?
Although Dr Fox has a vivd imagination (”my friend Mother Theresa”)
Its unlikely he said that.
@163:
Charlie Brooker claims there are no non-tabloid Newspapers in the UK. In most countries, there exist quality newspapers that maintain a distinction between reporting news, and reporting stuff they’ve just made up. Also, journalists in most countries are absolutely staunch in naming their sources to give their statements credibility.
In the UK, no such tradition exists. All newspapers are tabloids.
173. You seem to forget that Jackie Smith amongst others tried canabis at University, it isn’t quite the same as having control of Glasgow City Council’s Budget and pushing a co caine habit whilst in office.
When was the last time a politican was ’sent’ or ‘encouraged’ to attend a rehabilition clinc? This time Mr Toad made his escape onlt to resign two days later.
38. Saw an interview with Paul Weller who was asked what he thought of mr Cameron’s favourite song being Eton Rifles…..suffuce to say Mr Weller won’t be appearing at CCHQ anytime soon.
182 - You had me up to “Charlie Brooker”, then I switched off. Much like I do whenever he appears on TV.
More on Lord Paul from guido
http://order-order.com/2010/03/08/guy-news-lord-pauls-pension-steel/
161.
Like that you mean…he still won.
Will Self was very prescient there wasnt he?!
@185:
You leave Charlton alone. Newswipe is excellent and should have its own TV show.
182. “Charlie Brooker claims there are no non-tabloid Newspapers in the UK.”
Ah, but then Charlie Brooker also claimed he regularly lay awake at night wondering what it would be like if Gary Glitter was executed, until Channel 4 put him out of his misery.
156
The media have made no effort to scrutinise or question Cameron in any depth about his policies (or lack of) since he became leader. He has been allowed to waffle vacuously about “Broken Britain”, “hugging hoodies” and so on. Any pledge he makes is either quietly buried soon after birth or mired in confusion - eg married couples tax, budget cuts. He has alienated his natural allies in Europe to link up with semi-fascist nutters and is now busily antagonising the Americans while jeopardising the situation in Northern Ireland by his machinations. He has shown the judgement and moral courage of a gnat in dealing with the Ashcroft fiasco. In tandem with Osborne he has proved himself unable to offer any useful or appropriate economic analysis or coherent strategy. There are also clear signs that he is unable or unwilling to deal with pressure. He has had it all too easy and now that people are really beginning to focus on the election more and more of them are starting to wonder just what he stands for and whether it is too risky to vote him into power.
188 - He belongs in the category marked “not as funny or as clever as he thinks he is (or indeed funny or clever at all)”.
bribrad….Time for your rusk…
@189:
I think that was what we English refer to as “a joke”.
182. Charlie Brooker is right. Even the FT gets into comic mode regularly.
186.
Paul Staines site is a load of sewage-ridden cack. For someone ostensibly “anti politics” Staines spends too much time obsessively smearing Labour individuals to be even faintly credible.
And then Staines is usually three or four days behind the mainstream media on most so-called “scandals”. Ashcroft is a classic case. No surprise that partisan Staines missed the impact of that one!
188 Sometimes Mr Brooker gets right on my wick but usually I LOL at his stuff - I *heart* Newswipe.
190 bribad - Whilst you’re on, and seeing you are such an expert on the scrutiny of policies, can you point me to the in-depth media analysis of how Labour’s flagship ‘Gulags for Slags’ policy, announced in Gordon Brown’s conference speech, is going?
I imagine it has been such a dramatic success that its not considered newsworthy, but it’s always interesting to catch up on the government success stories that go under-reported.
193. “I think that was what we English refer to as “a joke”.”
Ahem…
bribrad..and some warm milk..
173: Theres a little difference between taking drugs in office, and taking drugs (or not) years before becoming a public figure.
195. and how many read your blog?
181: ‘Was he canvassing or are you confused?’
Confused? Possibly! Dr Fox always gets me in a tizzy - something to do with that smoldering Scottish accent and aura of doctorly reassurance. It’s no coincidence that when the good doctor was all over the airwaves, Labour’s polling took a pounding. For Labour, Doc Fox, is a kick in the box!
195.
“And then Staines is usually three or four days behind the mainstream media on most so-called “scandals”
McBride ?
199 At least wage slave was amusing if rather innuendo obsessed
197: That insulation plan, the boiler plan, the laptops for everyone plan…
I’m somewhat traumatised by the realisation that Liam Fox’s face appears to be shrinking.
205 Yes, and the plan to help home-owners avoid repossession.
205 A friend of mine trained to do the loft lagging stuff and within a month was told there was no money for the implementation of the scheme so had wasted his time entirely.
An army of loft laggers, pfft.
204 - “wage slave” and “amusing” in the same sentence, have you recently sustained a head injury?!
209 Compared to bribrad, a head injury would be more amusing.
Is this the highest quality trolling they can find? Perhaps they are fishing in the YouGov Loyal Labour demographic?
202. “Dr Fox always gets me in a tizzy - something to do with that smoldering Scottish accent and aura of doctorly reassurance.”
By a strange coincidence, the last time I visited my own GP he also prescribed an urgent departure from my federalist European Parliament grouping. I must admit I didn’t follow this advice, as it confused me.
What do you call a man who ignores medical advice? Healthy!
210 - meh, bribrad is annoying but no worse than the far higher number of Tory equivalents who post here regularly
though none of them are anywhere near as annoying as wage slave
202
Yes, Dr Smarm’s a real asset - I’m just trying to recall the amusing little racist joke he made to journalists that I read about recently which caused stunned disbelief all round. Did anyone else see it?
122. GOHF.
You can’t use a passage by Matthew Dancona and then say ‘The hypocrisy of the left stinks’
211 - You should have told Kenny MacAskill that joke last August.
OT I’m pretty good on my geography but have never ever heard of a country called Aruba.
http://s03.flagcounter.com/factbook/aw/HwUe
I’ve just got my first blog visitor from this place - is it just me that hasn’t heard of it before?
202.
I agree Liam “The Doctor” is a very assuring figure !
More Fox … less hounds !
210
Cheers. Wasn’t Plato a philosopher of some kind - a devotee of logic and reason? What the hell are you doing taking his name?
214. Roger - why not?
213: ‘I’m just trying to recall the amusing little racist joke he made to journalists that I read about recently’
It was: ‘What do you call three dogs and a blackbird? Answer: The Spice Girls.’
Which only an idiot would regard as racist!
216, congratulations
Nope, never heard of Aruba either.
216. It’s a small island off the coast of Venezuela
Re: 143 - Will L - I think that analysis is flawed on a number of levels but predominantely because it presupposes that parties can create anger. For a short while and on specific issues, yes, but an Opposition cannot create general anger if none exists.
In 2001 there was no real anger toward Labour and while a better campaign might have helped a little, the Conservatives never had a chance against Blair. In 2005, Howard did try to motivate legitimate concerns on immigration but was hampered by his party’s stance on Iraq and that anger was captured by the LDs, Respect and others.
The anger toward Labour has grown exponentially with the coming of the recession and is now so strong that it will carry the Conservatives to victory but the Tories have not created it, they have benefitted from it.
215. Well, of course it was Ken Clarke’s joke originally, so it was a typically outrageous hostage to fortune for him as well. But thankfully Kenny MacAskill’s ministerial career is still in rude health, whereas Clarke’s previously high hopes of resurrecting his own from the dead appear to be receding somewhat…
Camerons biographer on SamCam and the Vaizey stunt is saying her denial did not exclude her voting Green in 2001.
If she couldn’t bring herself to vote for Hague who would blame her?
216. It’s a Dutch-administered island in the Caribbean. Tsk, tsk, these ‘Libertarians’, I gather one or two of them even thought Ian Paisley was still First Minister in 2009…
218 Someone called that was - I happen to be named after a cat.
Think of all those West Highland terriers called Caesar, they weren’t all here in AD 56 either
David Mellor now on LBC Radio standing in for James Whale and discussing Ashcroft. Another treacherous bastard - he is one of the reasons the conservatives spent thirteen years in opposition.
by Ann March 8th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
What do you expect from a Fulham fan that goes to bed in a Chelsea shirt.
225 There’s no reason why she should share her husband’s politics, and I’m sure she doesn’t.
“SamCam and the Vaizey stunt”
Sounds like a children’s novel. Whereas “The Vaizey Stunt” sounds like a Tom Knox novel.
222/226 Yes, now you have read the link I provided I’m sure you know all about Arubians - did you know before? I don’t think so…
224.Ken Clarke: former Chancellor of the Exchequer, SofS for Health, Education, Home Affairs. Now speaking for the tories on trade and business.
Kenny MacAskill is…um, I give up. A local councillor? Glad to hear he’s in rude health though.
227 - I had a cat called Caesar. “She” was orignally going to be named Cleopatra until we brought him home and the irrefutable evidence revealed itself.
231. Nope.. before I looked it up, I thought it was where Lawrence came from.
231. As it happens, Plato, yes I did, but I’m not sure how I’m supposed to prove that now! I believe they have separate representation at the Olympic Games, which is probably where I first heard of them. Evidently you’re not a fan of opening ceremonies.
231 - Its existence wasnt a state secret before you posted the link so my best guess would have to be “yes”. Beach Boys fans, for instance, probably recognise these lyrics:
“Aruba, Jamaica, ooh I wanna take you to
Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama
Key Largo Montego, baby why don’t we go”
230 The Vaizey Stunt presumably being some really nasty method of execution.
220
Apologies, must admit I couldn’t remember whether it was racist or sexist. Bit of both then. What a charmer. Did he tell the one about the cockle-pickers and the one about the Pakistanis too - oh no,sorry, that was Anne Winterton wasn’t it? Wife of “sharing compartment with common plebs” Sir Nicholas. Reassuring to know how deeply the Tories have really changed from the old nasty party days.
233 I had a cat called Basil that became Bazelle on closer inspection
238. Incredibly mediocre level of postings this afternoon.
232. Kenny MacAskill is the Justice Secretary, whereas Clarke, as you so succinctly put it, “speaks” for the Tories.
But not to worry - the spoken word is, I believe, a powerful weapon in the right hands. Just ask Nadine Dorries.
236 Neil is now outed as a Beach Boys fan - what a rich musical mine PB is!
222
Near Belize …oops.
At least wage slave was amusing if rather innuendo obsessed
by Plato March 8th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Has he ever left us?
240 It was ever thus when there’s nothing substantial to discuss
Let’s hope somthing juicy comes up soon.
242 - The Beach Boys rocked!
Roger @ 110:
“I aqgree with those who say that the specifics of the Abrahams case will be quickly forgotten. But the damage is already done. The process is incremental: the Ecclestone affair and Mandelson’s house-fondling, Lord Paul’s non-dom status, the cash for peerages episode, and Lord Mandelson’s declaration that “we are intensely relaxed about people becoming “filthy rich”. Each story does a little more to confirm the voters’ residual fear that the Labour party is a political front for a gang of people who want to govern so they can do what the hell they like”
Stones - glass houses etc…….
240, runnymere, it’s probably due to a combination of no real news of any sort politically and the new wave of astroturfing numpties bobbing about like turds on a river.
I might miss Bahrain
It’s on Mothering Sunday so I might be out during the race. That’s hardly fair
244 Well he’s not about as much as usual - I notice Mr Ken Wasabi hasn’t posted in ages.
I’ve been as unsure as our host on this, but now inclined to think turnout will be a bit higher than last time, partly becuase it’s more of a horse-race. Both Tory and Labour voters seem to me on the doorstep to be firmer than last time, mostly for negative reasons in both cases - “gotta get/keep the ******s out”. The competing factor is the belief that we’re all crap because of expenses etc., but that seems to me to be starting to fade.
What do people here expect from tonight’s polls? Based on the dubious entrails of my weekend canvasssing, I’m expecting it to show a bit of further narrowing in the lead.
240
Don’t do it then.
Brooker is right on the spread of tabloid journalism into all newspapers, but as SeanT points out newspapers are there to make money not promote journalism.
On the point about the press and Cameron; I can name a number of Brownite journalists from Robert Peston in the Beeb through Patrick Hennesey in the Sunday Telegraph to Muriel Gray. Rentoul leads the diminishing number of Blairite journalists. Hard to think of any out and out Cameroons, though Matthew D’Aconna & the Brute probably fall in that camp, easy though to find critical voices on the right.
Partly that’s a function of power but it’s also the result of New Labour’s strong media operations and deliberate creation of allies by the Blair & Brown camps, Blair with News International and Brown with Mail, Guardian & Telegraph. Cameron, until he employed Coulson, has not courted the media with the same passion.
250, are we expecting a multiplicity of polls, Mr. Palmer?
I’m expecting nothing of interest, to be honest. Any changes will probably be noise.
252. Brogan is now in team Cam.
254. “Brogan is now in team Cam.”
Poor guy. Can nothing be done?
New thread
Country with lower deficit than Uk announces austerity package..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8554899.stm
252 Although the tabloidese of our papers is sometimes to be regretted - whenever I chance across the coverage in the NYT etc, I thank my lucky stars!!!
A few yrs ago just after 911, the DT did a co-share with the NYT (IIRC) and it was SO BORING. It was like reading Hansard without the jokes
I used to like the Times when it was a ’serious’ broadsheet but always had a juicy crime story on most of page 3
250. I think Populus had the lead at 10 points last month, so expect a slight reduction on that, given that it was a month ago, but nothing out of line with most of the other polls. A lead of 7-8 points I am guessing.
YouGov, I expect to be 6-7 points
“Any changes will probably be noise.”
No. Public opinion does not remain static for long.
What appears to be noise will, in the fullness of time, be revealed as either a continuation or reversal of trend…
250. Hopefully they will continue to confirm the narrowing trend.
But if they don’t I’ll simply dismiss them as having dodgy methodology!
261
Well said. Or blame the media.
Re Lilly Allen up above. She is a huge and knowledgable cricket fan - so she is therefore anoraky enough for pb.com
On turnout - how about this scenario - Labour people not voting using the expenses scandal as a reason, more than made up by returning Tories - leading to a figure around 65-67% but with a better mix for the Tories
202.”For Labour, Doc Fox, is a kick in the box!”
Starkey, you are on form tonight.
It was interesting to watch the way that the Conservative media team switched to the good doctor for the tail end of the Ashcroft saga, and just in time for Chilcott and Brown’s visit to Afghanistan. As usual, one or two in the media were looking under the bed for a Foxy plot to oust Cameron when it was Brown he had firmly in his sights. 
That is twice in recent weeks that Major has popped up in the media penning articles in one of the Sunday’s, is he sharpening his political skills for a wee return to the fray in the run up to the GE, a seasoned and respected attack dog solely primed to go after Brown the PM and Brown the Chancellor of our broken economy? Let him do the negative attacks leaving Cameron to be more positive? Its going to be interesting to watch, what ever you say about Major, under that grey and charming exterior beats the heart of the most ruthless politician who was so often underestimated by his own colleagues until it was too late.
Clarke, Major, Heseltine&Co, a lot of scores to settle with one Gordon Brown and New Labour. Even Tebbit does his bit by snarling at Cameron’s heels.
sorry mike.