Are the blues right to think that the purples will return?

The two big moves in opinion since the general election have been the Lib Dem collapse with the switch to Labour and now the rise of UKIP.

The former has been studied at length but there’s been very little polling data on the latter. One challenge is that of all the pollsters only ComRes provides cross-tabs on UKIP supporters. In its latest poll Comres also has the question “Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow?”.

From the data for the SIndy/SMirror poll we can start to build a picture of what current UKIP supporters are thinking and the potential election dynamics.

These are some of the headline points which I Tweeted:

ComRes: 47% of current UKIP supporters voted Tory at the 2010 election. 14% voted LD and just 3% voted Labour

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: Just 22% of UKIP supporters would “seriously consider” voting Tory

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: 13% of current UKIP supporters would “seriously consider” voting BNP at next election

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: Just 9% of UKIP supporters say “Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister”. 76% say he isn’t

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: 4% of UKIP supporters would vote to “stay in EU”"

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM?

These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted.

What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement?

What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most likely outcome is a return of Labour?

What if we reach a point where the Conservatives do what they’ve done in the past and ditch a leader perceived to be a loser?

It is a sign of the times that Ladbrokes is offering what to me is a skinny 7/1 that Dave will be out before the year end.

If Dave did have to step down before the general election then my choice for next Tory leader and PM would be the defence secretary, Phillip Hammond. Unlike most of those close to the PM Hammond is in his mid-50s, went to a state school, and had a successful career outside politics before becoming an MP.

It would be hard for Nadine Dorries to pin the label “posh” on him.

Of the Tory front bench team he is one of the few that gives an air of confidence and sure-footedness. In the past few days he’s had a very good week on defence issues and is an effective communicator.

Of the alternatives Boris is not an MP and went to Eton; Osborne, also public school and the Bullington club, has been too associated with Cameron and David Davis is not a minister.

I was going to end suggesting that you have a Hammond bet. Ladbrokes, amazingly now make him the 10/1 third favourite for the leadership. As I write there’s nothing available on Betfair though PaddyPower have a tempting 33/1 against him being next PM. If, unlike me, you can make a decent size bet with the Irish bookie then it’s worth a punt.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Both the PM and Nick Clegg see 8 points drops

Another poll, MORI, has EdM beating DC in leader ratings.Ed’s net rating is -16/Dave’s is -28/Clegg’s is -39 bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Clegg also sees a big drop in his MORI ratings down from -31 in April to -39 now.bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Cameron’s -28% MORI rating is worse than Gordon Brown’s was in any survey from the pollster in the 5 months before the 2010 election.

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

MORI has CON lead on economy down to just 1%. They are on 31% LAB 30%bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

The latest Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Evening Standard is out and has more bad polling news for the coalition parties and their leaders.

The voting intention numbers are CON 33 (-2):LAB43 (+5): LD 9 (-3), But it’s the MORI leader ratings which, arguably, are the most significant.

Dave’s -28% rating is worse than anything that Brown scored with MORI in the period up to the 2010 general election. These were:-

JAN 2012 -26%
FEB 2010 -21%
MAR 2010 -26%
APR 2010 -24%

Clegg (-8) and the Lib Dems (-3) come out of this poll appallingly as well.

The only consolation for them is that EdM’s personal numbers have only moved a little even though Labour voting intention share has risen by 5%.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

…YouGov points to a 1997-scale LABour landlside

Update – Labour lead on 14: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 14th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 7%, (UKIP 8%); APP -42 y-g.co/JPOlcP

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2012

The YouGov LAB 45% CON 31% split is slightly better for Labour than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide when the voting wasLAB 44.4% CON 31.4%

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Tonight’s YouGov lead for Labour of 14% is the highestrecorded by the firm since it started polling 10years sgo

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

YouGov have Labour taking the lead for the first time on “handling the economy”

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

LAB has still some way to go before it gets to what the Tories were polling in 2008. On May 8 that year YouGov had 49/23/17 – a 26% lead

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012