Chester will be Rishi’s first by-election test

Chester will be Rishi’s first by-election test

Will the Tories be doing better or worse than the polls Above is a table from David Cowling showing the detailed results of the Chester constituency since the 1992 general election. For Sunak this is his first Westminster by-election test. While victory looks remote he might find some comfort if the swing against the Tories in a real Westminster election is not as great as the polls. It will also be a good pointer for him if the swing against…

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Hard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester

Hard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester

But expect a very low turnout Today’s by-election follows the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson after accusations of sexual misconduct and a recommendation from the Independent Expert Panel that he be suspended from the Commons for four weeks. It hasn’t attracted very much attention because in the current context it is hard to see the Tories, who were second place at the last election, managing to come anywhere near. The LDs don’t put resources into fighting Labour held seats. Indeed there has hardly…

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FT reporting that Twitter could face EU ban

FT reporting that Twitter could face EU ban

The FT is reporting this morning that the EU has threatened Elon Musk with being banned in Europe unless the social media giant continues to follow its strict moderation rules. It is reporting that the threat came in a video call between Elon Musk and the EU official in charge of implementing the EU’s digital rules. One factor is that the California-based social media giant would have to agree to be subject to a yearly EU audit on a range…

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LAB’s VAT on private education plan set to be big issue

LAB’s VAT on private education plan set to be big issue

The LAB plan to end the charitable status and thus the VAT exemption on private schools has been around for some time though it has never been centre stage. That changed today at PMQs when Starmer started with the state money that Sunak’s old school, Winchester, receives. The party obviously thinks this is a good way to highlight Sunak’s privileged background which they must believe will help them electorally. No doubt there have been many focus groups This looks set…

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Is the general election betting overstating LAB chances?

Is the general election betting overstating LAB chances?

What about the first-time incumbency effect? The betting chart above on which party will win most seats at the next general election reflects the political history of the last 6 months. Most of the time until the early summer Boris Johnson looked as though he could lead the party to another victory. Then we had the difficult revelations about what happened at Number 10 Downing Street during the strict lockdowns. Johnson received a fine and so did Sunak something that…

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Sunak vs. Starmer – the polling trend

Sunak vs. Starmer – the polling trend

All three charts are from the latest Redfield & Wilson poll which was published yesterday. There are many, including me, who regard polling like this as more indicative of the current political mood in the country than voting intention surveys. Mike Smithson

Should Rishi support onshore wind farms or oppose?

Should Rishi support onshore wind farms or oppose?

There is nothing like an energy crisis with predicted soaring costs that cause politicians to look at alternative sources which in the past have been a opposed. It is my view one of the daftest decisions made by the Tories was to impose the effective ban on onshore wind in 2015. That is now being revisited and the party is divided into 2 camps – those who believe that they should continue to be opposed and those looking to expand…

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The Georgia runoff looks very tight

The Georgia runoff looks very tight

One of the things about American politics that looks very odd from a British perspective is that each of the 50 states can have very different election rules for what is the same national contest. So in the state of Georgia nobody can win an election unless they come out with 50% or more of the vote. This means that if no candidate achieves that threshold there has to be a runoff election 4 weeks later which is what is…

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